Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Byrd full interview on CNBC: Power is the largest bottleneck, more than chips. “Over the summer, the tech community reached out to all the U.S. time-to-power solution providers and said whatever power you have in ‘27 & ‘28, we will take it.” $CIFR $WULF $HUT $GLXY... $IREN $WYFI $NBISshow more

I don't think thats accurate. Plenty of 2H28 megawatts which havent been leased. Average length from lease signing to energization is ~13 months so still a bit early for 2H28 leases.

Very fair. I’d love to see a VanEck PSP report. 👀

@matthew_sigel @matthew_sigel do I take it that $IREN's 2.3GW energized equal to roughly 10–15% of an entire year of additional supply based on your numbers?

@SmallCapSnipa No. On actual usable DC capacity coming online, more like 2–3%. The 2.3GW is energized power, not finished DC capacity. Still very meaningful though.

Got it that makes sense. I was reading the research and got it mixed. In your base case what conversion rate do you assume from energized power to finished DC capacity, and what value per uncontracted MW? The gap between 2.3GW energized and what's actually built seems like the part the market isn't paying for.

We don’t really assume a fixed conversion rate. It's clear that energized power is the scarce upstream asset as only ~2% of the U.S. data center power pipeline actually reached commercial operation last year, and median interconnection time is now ~5 years. Once you have the power, though, it still takes a lot of capital and 12-18 months to turn it into finished DC capacity (maybe faster for IREN given the existing infra). IREN have a huge amount of energized power relative to what’s actually built, so their bottleneck is capital + execution, now power. So I’m not dismissing the value of their secured power. If the demand and the financing keeps showing up, they’re in a very good spot. As for the value, our work suggests the market is paying almost nothing for uncontracted DC capacity today. For the powered-shell names, current leases suggest roughly $15-20M of value creation per MW once capacity is leased. For neoclouds like IREN it’s harder to put a clean $/MW on the uncontracted pipeline because they have much larger financing needs and generally shorter-duration customer contracts.

@SmallCapSnipa Meant to write *not power instead of *now power

FEW

This is a national emergency in my opinion $KEEL 😂

It sure is. If we don’t figure out the power shortfall, then the pace of adoption and improvement will not happen the way we want it to.

Sounds like IREN's Canada, Spain and Australia sites are undervalued.

Especially Aussie

Shorter than we thought 😶

I don’t think anyone could have imagined this nor prepared for it

Crazy how this is the beginning stages of AI.

I so much agree and been saying this for a while. No AI without POWER.

@grok pros and cons for $CIFR ?

$APLD

Sounds like Byrd @MorganStanley is talking about $IREN even though he doesn't cover it! @Agrippa_Inv @CNBC

My evolving thesis is that the bottleneck has not fully shifted to power and that power pricing continues to improve through 2027 as the scarcity fully prices in. Recall Elon said 2027 is the lower bottleneck - think he is right. Corollary to the thesis is that many major projects will face delays further shifting the pricing power as desperation/FOMO peak Expect a few things: 1) colocation rates continue to improve into the 3M/MW regime 2) Neocloud GPU rates continue to improve towards 50M/MW (1yr) 3) Premiums will be paid for large sites with ready power and fiber connectivity

Good read, thanks. Your breakdown is practical and easy to grasp. You and @JasonKMiller_ stand out.

BE

@CNBC @stephenbyrd doesnt cover @IREN_Ltd How can Byrd put out a 50-page note without covering $IREN ??? Absurd!

@CNBC @stephenbyrd @IREN_Ltd Yeah it’s odd. I never see $IREN coverage from MS. Only critique have because the research is fantastic.

@MorganStanley - still pissy at @IREN_Ltd ? @stephenbyrd needs to grow up.

@WC25B Gpus stock!

Nvidia will still sell chips to get the most out of existing infrastructure.