Mr Bowen has stated several times his renewables plan will cost $121 billion several times, on ABC Insiders and again on 730 Report. So what’s included, and what’s not, in the $121 billion? 1/

$121 billion first appeared in AEMO’s draft 2024 ISP and was further explained in an AEMO webinar. 2/

AEMO’s generation and storage outlook spreadsheet is available here, and the $121 billion can be derived from the tables within. 3/

Inside the spreadsheet, first select CDP3 – this is the ‘least cost’ step change scenario. That gives you this chart for generation mix and a few other tweaks. 4/

It’s the data table that generates this chart where you’ll find the $121 billion, but it’s not immediately obvious. The data table extends out to 2052, but recall the $121 billion is spending out to 2050. So you have to adjust the table calculation to only include spending up to 2049-5 5/

Then the $121 billion only includes ‘capital’, and when you leave out the other costs you can find $121 billion – highlighted and summed here. 6/

So what is left out? How about all the rooftop solar, all the home batteries, and a whole bunch of transmission? The draft ISP lists these costs, approaching $50 billion. But transmission spending included in the $121 billion only shows $15.3 billion. 7/

CER is excluded from the $121 billion. That’s going to be at least $200 billion. What’s 80 GW of rooftop solar cost? That’s excluded too. What about pumped hydro? Excluded. It’s abundantly clear that $121 billion is far below the actual costs required to make the ISP work. /end

1.5 trillion was an estimate but it will be double that.

Turn it up. He also provided the source. Dutton on the other hand is making it up on the fly and it’s somehow treated like a policy and there is a debate.

The source is the problem.