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Mr. Cornflakes is at it again.

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East_Calling

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97,753 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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The argument that the Trump administration and its acolytes are using to defend the War in Iran on the economic front is that this will be "short-term pain for a long-term gain." But it is hard to see how this would be the case. From the perspective of oil prices, which were already near historical lows before the conflict, it is unlikely that we would see prices drop lower than they already were. The break-even price for many modern oil projects is around $60 to $65 dollars per barrel, and most oil producing nations need oil closer to $80 to actually balance their budgets. Even if oil prices returned to the level they were already at, the incentive to produce more oil would simply not be there. Also, the USA is now the world's largest producer and consumer of oil, so if prices are anywhere between $40 and $80 per barrel, the impact on the overall US economy is a wash. Economic gains are simply shuffled between US states. The other economic argument is that without an "Iranian threat," even if we assume such a threat existed, there will be a "Peace Dividend," and we will be able to spend less money in the Middle East theater of military operations. Honestly, nobody seriously believes that the US would send less money to Israel in any event after an Iranian conflict concluded on US terms, and empirically, the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan didn't result in any noticeable "Peace Dividend" at any point. Then there's the fact that any reduction in military spending in the Middle East (let's just pretend here) would likely just be redirected towards the Pacific theater of operations. The result will most likely be "short-term pain for long-term pain." At best, we'd return to where we were before Operation "Epic Fury." And again, this is assuming everything goes according to the fever dreams of the Trump administration. I certainly don't expect that best possible scenario (for the administration) and nobody seriously does. Follow us for more on Telegram:
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