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$MSFT down 30% from its $525 ATH. This is a generational dip for a $700 stock trading at $380. Azure - 40% growth / $155B run-rate Value: 23 P/E (lowest since 2022) Selling here is peak retail IQ. Hand your shares to Wall Street at a discount, they thank...

46,449 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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YOUR BOT HAS A 70% WIN RATE AND IS STILL LOSING MONEY. This is more common than you think and the reason is always the same. Most people treat win rate like it's the only number that matters. It's not even close to the full picture. Here's the math nobody is putting together clearly: EV = (p × b) − (1 − p) P is your win probability, b is your payout multiplier. At a 70c entry your payout multiplier is roughly 0.43. That means even at 70% win rate your EV is basically zero. (0.70 × 0.43) − 0.30 = 0.001 You are grinding for fractions of a cent per trade while thinking you have an edge. Now look at what happens when you fix the entry price. Same 70% win rate, entry drops to 50c, payout multiplier jumps to 1.0. (0.70 × 1.0) − 0.30 = 0.40 EV per dollar. Same signal. Same win rate. Completely different business. This is why I keep saying win rate and entry price are one calculation not two. Your AI backtest never runs this math because it only looks at whether you won or lost. It does not care what you paid to enter. The fix is not finding a higher win rate signal, it almost never is. The fix is finding why your high win rate entries keep appearing at prices that make them unprofitable. That upstream reason is your real signal. Dig one layer deeper and build around that instead. I broke down the entry price math before and I broke down DCA before. But without understanding EV you are optimizing the wrong thing entirely. This logic is the only reason how my bot is sitting at $154k PnL. Public wallet: [ Run this formula on your last 100 live trades before you change a single line of signal logic. The answer is probably already there.

Punisher

11,034 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

You will NEVER build a real market maker bot. Stop believing highlights. I'll save you what it cost me to learn that the hard way. But you can still be the house at a small scale. Here's how to manufacture liquidity out of nothing: The pro market maker dream is a FIFO war you will NOT win. 24 hour early ladder fights, sub millisecond queue battles, getting left naked-long when the trend reverses. Skip all of it. There's a smaller version of being the house that actually works for a solo dev. Here's the problem it solves: You found a perfect entry, but there's no liquidity. No shares to buy at your price. You can manufacture your own, two ways. First trick - naked sells. You do not need to own a share to sell it. Buying one side is the same as selling the other. If the side you want is empty but the opposite side has depth, just sell the opposite. Second trick - split shares, and this one is stronger. You can split $1 into one up share and one down share at any time. Say you want the up share at 60c, but the book is empty there. When the window opens, you pre-split some shares, and now they're sitting in your wallet. You list down shares for sale at 40c. If they fill, you're left holding the up share you wanted all along. Effective entry, 60c. BTC market is a perfect target for it: < Manufactured from nothing, no liquidity required. You're not predicting anything here. You're creating the position the order book refused to hand you. Leaving my full bot-building guide quoted below, every common mistake covered. Good luck.

Punisher

13,448 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten