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Much attention has been focused on the zero lower bound for nominal interest rates. There is another nominal lower bound which may be equally important, the zero lower bound on nominal wage changes. A particular striking example is that of Portugal. The video below shows the evolution of the...

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Olivier Blanchard

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68,268 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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"We risk going from short-term disruption to long-term structural damage to the oil market," Mohamed A. El-Erian tells me. "The increase in the oil price is going to persist for a while and that is going to mean not only higher interest rates, but lower growth, higher unemployment and a greater risk of financial instability."
2:00

"We risk going from short-term disruption to long-term structural damage to the oil market," Mohamed A. El-Erian tells me. "The increase in the oil price is going to persist for a while and that is going to mean not only higher interest rates, but lower growth, higher unemployment and a greater risk of financial instability."

Christiane Amanpour

188,649 次观看 • 5 个月前

‘Truflation': Trump’s Actual Inflation Rate | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. President Trump’s “clamoring for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates” may finally pay off later this year when Kevin Warsh takes over as the new Fed chair. Trump “shouldn’t have to wait that long,” however, because his appeal to the Fed has been “on the grounds that inflation is much lower than what’s being officially reported,” explains E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., Ph.D., Heritage Foundation's chief economist. “ It turns out Trump is spot on with today's real inflation rate being only one-third the official metrics. In fact, these numbers come from the real-time price aggregator Truflation, which monitors millions of prices every single day. That is orders of magnitude more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, which only observes a few thousand prices just three times per month.” (00:00) Trump's Push for Lower Interest Rates (01:49) Understanding Real Inflation Rates (03:40) Comparing Truflation and CPI (06:26) Housing Costs and Inflation Metrics (09:02) The Impact of Lower Interest Rates (09:38) Conclusion and Next Steps 👉For more videos like this, subscribe to The Daily Signal’s YouTube channel and enable notifications to be alerted the second a new video drops:
9:53

‘Truflation': Trump’s Actual Inflation Rate | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. President Trump’s “clamoring for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates” may finally pay off later this year when Kevin Warsh takes over as the new Fed chair. Trump “shouldn’t have to wait that long,” however, because his appeal to the Fed has been “on the grounds that inflation is much lower than what’s being officially reported,” explains E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., Ph.D., Heritage Foundation's chief economist. “ It turns out Trump is spot on with today's real inflation rate being only one-third the official metrics. In fact, these numbers come from the real-time price aggregator Truflation, which monitors millions of prices every single day. That is orders of magnitude more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, which only observes a few thousand prices just three times per month.” (00:00) Trump's Push for Lower Interest Rates (01:49) Understanding Real Inflation Rates (03:40) Comparing Truflation and CPI (06:26) Housing Costs and Inflation Metrics (09:02) The Impact of Lower Interest Rates (09:38) Conclusion and Next Steps 👉For more videos like this, subscribe to The Daily Signal’s YouTube channel and enable notifications to be alerted the second a new video drops:

The Daily Signal

31,658 次观看 • 6 个月前

₦80 Trillion Tinubu Borrowing Is Not Nominal, But a Result of Naira Devaluation - Alaje The naira has always been susceptible to devaluation. The Tinubu administration has taken on new borrowings, albeit not up to the quoted ₦80 trillion. However, it is important to state that unlike accountants who look at book value, economists consider both implicit and explicit value. When adjustments for the exchange rate are factored in, Nigeria’s borrowing reaches the quoted amount, even though it does not in nominal terms. Paul Alaje, Chief Economist, SPM Professionals
4:13

₦80 Trillion Tinubu Borrowing Is Not Nominal, But a Result of Naira Devaluation - Alaje The naira has always been susceptible to devaluation. The Tinubu administration has taken on new borrowings, albeit not up to the quoted ₦80 trillion. However, it is important to state that unlike accountants who look at book value, economists consider both implicit and explicit value. When adjustments for the exchange rate are factored in, Nigeria’s borrowing reaches the quoted amount, even though it does not in nominal terms. Paul Alaje, Chief Economist, SPM Professionals

ARISE NEWS

36,629 次观看 • 1 个月前

So NOW Matt Walsh is admitting some "conservatives" on "the right" may not have actually been on "The Right" at all and might have been a part of an op? Interesting. Because when many of us tried to point this out to him, we were told "NO ENEMIES TO THE RIGHT" from Walsh. Absolutely zero instinct. Totally disconnected from the real world. He's in the running for the Golden Flip Flop award this year.
2:14

So NOW Matt Walsh is admitting some "conservatives" on "the right" may not have actually been on "The Right" at all and might have been a part of an op? Interesting. Because when many of us tried to point this out to him, we were told "NO ENEMIES TO THE RIGHT" from Walsh. Absolutely zero instinct. Totally disconnected from the real world. He's in the running for the Golden Flip Flop award this year.

Shawn Farash

321,248 次观看 • 4 个月前

NEW: Karoline Leavitt holds up Trump’s handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell, telling him to cut rates. This one’s classic Trump and Leavitt made sure everyone in the media saw it. She held up the paper during the press briefing, pointing to the long list of countries with lower interest rates than the U.S.: “We have interest rates that are still too high, so the president sent this note to the Fed Chair today.” Reading from the chart she waved for cameras: “This is a chart of all of the interest rates of many countries throughout the world. At the top is Switzerland. They're only paying a quarter for interest rates.” Then she rattled off the list: “Cambodia, Japan, Denmark, Thailand, Botswana, Barbados, Taiwan, Bulgaria, Cuba, Sweden, Morocco, Cabo Verde, South Korea, Algeria, Canada, Albania, Libya, Malaysia, China, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago...” “All paying lower interest rates than the United States of America, which has one of the hottest and strongest economies in the world.” Then she read Trump’s blunt message to Jerome Powell, signed and delivered: “Jerome, you are as usual too late, you have cost the USA a fortune and continue to do so. You should lower the rate by a lot. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost, and there is low inflation.” “The president is right, there is historically low inflation thanks to his policies.”
1:20

NEW: Karoline Leavitt holds up Trump’s handwritten note to Fed Chair Powell, telling him to cut rates. This one’s classic Trump and Leavitt made sure everyone in the media saw it. She held up the paper during the press briefing, pointing to the long list of countries with lower interest rates than the U.S.: “We have interest rates that are still too high, so the president sent this note to the Fed Chair today.” Reading from the chart she waved for cameras: “This is a chart of all of the interest rates of many countries throughout the world. At the top is Switzerland. They're only paying a quarter for interest rates.” Then she rattled off the list: “Cambodia, Japan, Denmark, Thailand, Botswana, Barbados, Taiwan, Bulgaria, Cuba, Sweden, Morocco, Cabo Verde, South Korea, Algeria, Canada, Albania, Libya, Malaysia, China, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago...” “All paying lower interest rates than the United States of America, which has one of the hottest and strongest economies in the world.” Then she read Trump’s blunt message to Jerome Powell, signed and delivered: “Jerome, you are as usual too late, you have cost the USA a fortune and continue to do so. You should lower the rate by a lot. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being lost, and there is low inflation.” “The president is right, there is historically low inflation thanks to his policies.”

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

1,039,977 次观看 • 1 年前

Credit Card interest rates are now higher than any other generation “In 2013, rates were on average 13%. Today, they're 24%” “Last year, Americans paid $170 billion in credit card interest” Whistleblower says a secret experiment was made, “Elena Botella worked at one of the biggest credit card companies, Capital One, from 2013 to 2018. She says that when she started, Capital One had a policy of not charging anyone, even the riskiest borrowers, more than a 25% rate. But then the company began an experiment: The idea is how high can you push the upper bound of the price?” This is very sinister and criminal. Americans are being robbed blind by financial institutions all conspiring together
2:55

Credit Card interest rates are now higher than any other generation “In 2013, rates were on average 13%. Today, they're 24%” “Last year, Americans paid $170 billion in credit card interest” Whistleblower says a secret experiment was made, “Elena Botella worked at one of the biggest credit card companies, Capital One, from 2013 to 2018. She says that when she started, Capital One had a policy of not charging anyone, even the riskiest borrowers, more than a 25% rate. But then the company began an experiment: The idea is how high can you push the upper bound of the price?” This is very sinister and criminal. Americans are being robbed blind by financial institutions all conspiring together

Wall Street Apes

28,539 次观看 • 6 个月前

This video is from 2007, at the time If you posted it, you were called Islamophobic and the video would be labeled as misinformation. It was a warning to the West of the changing demographics due to Islamic immigration. The numbers are a little overblown, and some of that may be due to lower birth rates around the world, but the trajectory is accurate. If something is not done, European countries will soon resemble Islamic republics.
5:39

This video is from 2007, at the time If you posted it, you were called Islamophobic and the video would be labeled as misinformation. It was a warning to the West of the changing demographics due to Islamic immigration. The numbers are a little overblown, and some of that may be due to lower birth rates around the world, but the trajectory is accurate. If something is not done, European countries will soon resemble Islamic republics.

The Hole

15,445 次观看 • 1 年前

I asked National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett whether he thinks new Fed nominee Kevin Warsh will get behind POTUS' call for 1% interest rates: HASSETT: The president believes that if you are data- driven and not partisan, he thinks the Fed has been partisan, that rates could be a lot lower. And I think that Warsh agrees with that...I have high confidence that he'll go in there and he'll accomplish the right goals. Now, if the data change a lot, if all of a sudden inflation is higher, then of course there won't be room for interest rates to go as low as 1%. But President Trump thinks that we're having a positive supply shock right now, and that's lowering prices and raising growth and raising the welfare of American citizens."
1:42

I asked National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett whether he thinks new Fed nominee Kevin Warsh will get behind POTUS' call for 1% interest rates: HASSETT: The president believes that if you are data- driven and not partisan, he thinks the Fed has been partisan, that rates could be a lot lower. And I think that Warsh agrees with that...I have high confidence that he'll go in there and he'll accomplish the right goals. Now, if the data change a lot, if all of a sudden inflation is higher, then of course there won't be room for interest rates to go as low as 1%. But President Trump thinks that we're having a positive supply shock right now, and that's lowering prices and raising growth and raising the welfare of American citizens."

Jacqui Heinrich

11,326 次观看 • 7 个月前

Malema is not wrong, decades of research consistently shows that mass expulsion of immigrants rarely improves unemployment. In fact, removing immigrants from a country often leads to higher unemployment and lower wages for the very people it was meant to help. The problem for Malema is that the people will not hear any of this. So, the back and forth will continue indefinitely because the powers that be will never substantially curb immigration (legal or illegal) because they already know how that ends. On the other hand, the masses will continue demanding what they want.
2:12

Malema is not wrong, decades of research consistently shows that mass expulsion of immigrants rarely improves unemployment. In fact, removing immigrants from a country often leads to higher unemployment and lower wages for the very people it was meant to help. The problem for Malema is that the people will not hear any of this. So, the back and forth will continue indefinitely because the powers that be will never substantially curb immigration (legal or illegal) because they already know how that ends. On the other hand, the masses will continue demanding what they want.

Sizwe SikaMusi

94,484 次观看 • 7 个月前

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.
14:42

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.

YCC Macro

50,861 次观看 • 2 个月前

🇺🇸 INTERVIEW: “AMERICA IS FUNDING ITS DEBT BY EXPROPRIATING THE WORLD’S WEALTH” Luke Gromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “Over the last five to ten years, the only way the U.S. and the West can afford to sustain their debt levels is by keeping real interest rates negative. That means the rate of inflation and nominal growth have to stay higher than the interest rate on government bonds. If you’re a creditor holding U.S. debt, that effectively means your country’s wealth is being slowly expropriated through inflation. For nations like China and Russia, that’s unacceptable. Their answer has been to buy gold to protect purchasing power and hedge against the weaponization of the dollar.”
1:24

🇺🇸 INTERVIEW: “AMERICA IS FUNDING ITS DEBT BY EXPROPRIATING THE WORLD’S WEALTH” Luke Gromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “Over the last five to ten years, the only way the U.S. and the West can afford to sustain their debt levels is by keeping real interest rates negative. That means the rate of inflation and nominal growth have to stay higher than the interest rate on government bonds. If you’re a creditor holding U.S. debt, that effectively means your country’s wealth is being slowly expropriated through inflation. For nations like China and Russia, that’s unacceptable. Their answer has been to buy gold to protect purchasing power and hedge against the weaponization of the dollar.”

Mario Nawfal

70,256 次观看 • 10 个月前

Regardless of what you think of Erika, having her at the helm of TPUSA is setting a terrible example for the young women of America. It completely goes against the message that both she and Charlie preached. Mothers of young children should absolutely be at home and focused on their kids, not trying to divide their time and attention between the kids and a career. This is even more true when the children have lost their father.
1:16

Regardless of what you think of Erika, having her at the helm of TPUSA is setting a terrible example for the young women of America. It completely goes against the message that both she and Charlie preached. Mothers of young children should absolutely be at home and focused on their kids, not trying to divide their time and attention between the kids and a career. This is even more true when the children have lost their father.

White Baby Factory

45,065 次观看 • 4 个月前

When we came to office, inflation was higher and rising, interest rates were going up, real wages and living standards were falling, and Australia was already on track to hit a trillion dollars of debt. Now inflation is down, real wages and living standards are growing again, unemployment is low, we’ve got the debt down, interest rates are going down and growth is rebounding solidly in our economy. This puts us in good stead, but we know there’s more work to do because people are still under pressure and global risks are significant. #auspol #ausecon
1:14

When we came to office, inflation was higher and rising, interest rates were going up, real wages and living standards were falling, and Australia was already on track to hit a trillion dollars of debt. Now inflation is down, real wages and living standards are growing again, unemployment is low, we’ve got the debt down, interest rates are going down and growth is rebounding solidly in our economy. This puts us in good stead, but we know there’s more work to do because people are still under pressure and global risks are significant. #auspol #ausecon

Jim Chalmers MP

37,992 次观看 • 1 年前

Housing Affordability Will Return the Hard Way New homes selling for less than existing homes means builders are being forced to respond to the market before homeowners are. Builders carry construction loans, land costs, payroll and unsold inventory. They cannot wait indefinitely, so they cut prices, reduce square footage and offer mortgage rate buydowns. Existing owners with 3% or 4% mortgages can simply refuse to sell. Price discovery is therefore appearing first in new construction while resale prices remain supported by restricted supply. The comparison is not perfectly equal because new homes are increasingly smaller and concentrated in lower-cost regions. Even so, the reversal matters. A market that historically placed a premium on new construction now requires discounts to move inventory. Mortgage Demand Has Collapsed The deeper signal is mortgage activity. The purchase application index is roughly 35% below its long term average and about 70% below its 2005 peak. Application volume has fallen toward levels last seen around 1995 even though the U.S. population is nearly 29% larger. Measured per person, purchase application activity is therefore about 22% lower than it was three decades ago. In practical terms, a much larger country is producing nearly one quarter fewer mortgage applications per capita. This is not a lack of interest in owning a home. It is a failure of affordability. Mortgage rates were around 7.5% to 8% in 1995, but the median new home cost roughly $133,000. Today rates are somewhat lower, yet home prices are more than three times higher. Monthly payments have risen much faster than household incomes, while down payments, taxes and insurance have become larger barriers of their own. Transactions Usually Break Before Prices The historical pattern is that housing volume weakens before home prices fully adjust. That happened during the 2006 to 2008 downturn. Buyers disappeared first, inventory accumulated later, and prices fell more decisively once unemployment rose and forced selling increased. Today the mortgage lock in has delayed that process. Owners with low rates are holding properties off the market, preventing inventory from rising enough to clear prices. Builders do not have that luxury, which is why they are cutting first. Why Lower Rates May Not Be Enough Lower mortgage rates alone could bring sidelined buyers back and place another floor under prices. Real affordability requires both lower financing costs and lower home prices relative to income. That combination usually appears when the economy is weakening. Rising unemployment reduces household formation, forces some owners to sell and breaks the lock in effect. Inventory rises just as demand falls. Mortgage rates decline because growth and inflation are deteriorating, but lending standards tighten and fewer people feel secure enough to buy. That is the cruel part of the housing cycle. Homes become more affordable only after buyers become scarcer. The people who benefit most are those who retain employment, liquidity and access to credit through the downturn. Hormuz Could Accelerate The Reset A sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption would intensify this process with a lag. Higher oil prices raise gasoline, freight, airline, food and production costs. Households lose discretionary income, businesses see margins compressed and hiring slows. At first, the inflation shock could keep long term yields and mortgage rates elevated even as demand weakens. Later, if unemployment continues to rise and consumption deteriorates, rates would fall because the economy is breaking beneath the surface. That is the most likely path back to affordability. Not a painless return to cheap mortgages, but a recessionary reset in which employment weakens, forced supply increases and falling rates arrive too late to protect everyone.
0:23

Housing Affordability Will Return the Hard Way New homes selling for less than existing homes means builders are being forced to respond to the market before homeowners are. Builders carry construction loans, land costs, payroll and unsold inventory. They cannot wait indefinitely, so they cut prices, reduce square footage and offer mortgage rate buydowns. Existing owners with 3% or 4% mortgages can simply refuse to sell. Price discovery is therefore appearing first in new construction while resale prices remain supported by restricted supply. The comparison is not perfectly equal because new homes are increasingly smaller and concentrated in lower-cost regions. Even so, the reversal matters. A market that historically placed a premium on new construction now requires discounts to move inventory. Mortgage Demand Has Collapsed The deeper signal is mortgage activity. The purchase application index is roughly 35% below its long term average and about 70% below its 2005 peak. Application volume has fallen toward levels last seen around 1995 even though the U.S. population is nearly 29% larger. Measured per person, purchase application activity is therefore about 22% lower than it was three decades ago. In practical terms, a much larger country is producing nearly one quarter fewer mortgage applications per capita. This is not a lack of interest in owning a home. It is a failure of affordability. Mortgage rates were around 7.5% to 8% in 1995, but the median new home cost roughly $133,000. Today rates are somewhat lower, yet home prices are more than three times higher. Monthly payments have risen much faster than household incomes, while down payments, taxes and insurance have become larger barriers of their own. Transactions Usually Break Before Prices The historical pattern is that housing volume weakens before home prices fully adjust. That happened during the 2006 to 2008 downturn. Buyers disappeared first, inventory accumulated later, and prices fell more decisively once unemployment rose and forced selling increased. Today the mortgage lock in has delayed that process. Owners with low rates are holding properties off the market, preventing inventory from rising enough to clear prices. Builders do not have that luxury, which is why they are cutting first. Why Lower Rates May Not Be Enough Lower mortgage rates alone could bring sidelined buyers back and place another floor under prices. Real affordability requires both lower financing costs and lower home prices relative to income. That combination usually appears when the economy is weakening. Rising unemployment reduces household formation, forces some owners to sell and breaks the lock in effect. Inventory rises just as demand falls. Mortgage rates decline because growth and inflation are deteriorating, but lending standards tighten and fewer people feel secure enough to buy. That is the cruel part of the housing cycle. Homes become more affordable only after buyers become scarcer. The people who benefit most are those who retain employment, liquidity and access to credit through the downturn. Hormuz Could Accelerate The Reset A sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption would intensify this process with a lag. Higher oil prices raise gasoline, freight, airline, food and production costs. Households lose discretionary income, businesses see margins compressed and hiring slows. At first, the inflation shock could keep long term yields and mortgage rates elevated even as demand weakens. Later, if unemployment continues to rise and consumption deteriorates, rates would fall because the economy is breaking beneath the surface. That is the most likely path back to affordability. Not a painless return to cheap mortgages, but a recessionary reset in which employment weakens, forced supply increases and falling rates arrive too late to protect everyone.

EndGame Macro

250,798 次观看 • 1 个月前

Charles Kanjama on whether the DP can run for office or not: The court was not clear on it; it could have been clear by making a declaration that the outcome of the impeachment will not have any consequence. My interpretation is that because the court has found that there has been a violation of the right to a fair hearing, of necessity, the fruits of the impeachment cannot all be sustained. The finality in terms of bringing in a new DP has been sustained, but the other fruits of impeachment, which is to stop the DP from running again, cannot be sustained. The outcome is fairly confusing #CitizenMondayReport
2:12

Charles Kanjama on whether the DP can run for office or not: The court was not clear on it; it could have been clear by making a declaration that the outcome of the impeachment will not have any consequence. My interpretation is that because the court has found that there has been a violation of the right to a fair hearing, of necessity, the fruits of the impeachment cannot all be sustained. The finality in terms of bringing in a new DP has been sustained, but the other fruits of impeachment, which is to stop the DP from running again, cannot be sustained. The outcome is fairly confusing #CitizenMondayReport

Citizen TV Kenya

35,563 次观看 • 2 个月前

"Which questions will remain unanswered by scientists? There are no questions that science will not eventually be able to comprehend and explain, it is only a matter of time. There may be certain details that are not crucial for understanding the overall picture of the world. For instance, perhaps, science may never give an exact answer to the question: "How much time has passed before self-organizing matter appeared?", but since that period was the Era of Nothing, the concept of time loses its meaning, and therefore the answer to this question is not so important." - Zafar Mirzo Zafar Mirzo
0:32

"Which questions will remain unanswered by scientists? There are no questions that science will not eventually be able to comprehend and explain, it is only a matter of time. There may be certain details that are not crucial for understanding the overall picture of the world. For instance, perhaps, science may never give an exact answer to the question: "How much time has passed before self-organizing matter appeared?", but since that period was the Era of Nothing, the concept of time loses its meaning, and therefore the answer to this question is not so important." - Zafar Mirzo Zafar Mirzo

Zafar Mirzo | Quotes

1,836,762 次观看 • 1 年前

What If Warsh Cuts Rates Next Week? Markets are overwhelmingly expecting Kevin Warsh to keep rates unchanged at his first Fed meeting next week, with some traders even pricing in the possibility of higher rates later this year. But what if the consensus is wrong? In this Short video, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" presents the contrarian case that Warsh could be far more dovish than investors expect. The argument starts with inflation. Warsh has suggested that traditional inflation measures may overstate current price pressures and that alternative metrics, such as Dallas Trimmed PCE, paint a much cooler picture. If inflation is closer to target than headline data suggests, the justification for maintaining restrictive policy becomes much weaker. Another key piece of the thesis is productivity. Warsh has repeatedly discussed the transformative impact of AI on economic output. If artificial intelligence drives a meaningful productivity boom, the economy could grow faster without generating the same inflationary pressures that normally accompany growth. That would give the Fed more room to lower rates without reigniting inflation. The discussion also highlights the possibility that recent inflation pressures are being driven by temporary factors, particularly energy prices and geopolitical tensions. If those pressures ease, inflation could fall naturally, strengthening the case for easier monetary policy. There is also a broader economic backdrop to consider. The administration has made economic growth, domestic manufacturing, and reindustrialization central priorities. Building factories, infrastructure, and supply chains requires capital, and high interest rates make those investments more difficult. Lower rates would provide the financial fuel needed to accelerate those goals. The most controversial part of the conversation is the suggestion that Warsh could deliver not just a rate cut, but potentially a larger-than-expected cut (50 bps) if he wants to quickly reset policy. While that remains a low-probability outcome, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" argues that markets may be underestimating the possibility of a significant shift in direction. If that happens, stocks could respond very positively as lower rates improve liquidity, reduce financing costs, and support higher valuations. However, the bigger story may be in #bonds. Long-term Treasury investors could view aggressive easing as inflationary or fiscally irresponsible, pushing #yields sharply higher. In that scenario, equities celebrate the pivot while the bond market revolts. So, according to Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world", Kevin Warsh may not follow the path investors currently expect. If he embraces alternative inflation measures, leans on the AI productivity story, and prioritizes growth, the market could be forced to rapidly reprice both interest-rate expectations and long-term bond yields. 🔽Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️
2:54

What If Warsh Cuts Rates Next Week? Markets are overwhelmingly expecting Kevin Warsh to keep rates unchanged at his first Fed meeting next week, with some traders even pricing in the possibility of higher rates later this year. But what if the consensus is wrong? In this Short video, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" presents the contrarian case that Warsh could be far more dovish than investors expect. The argument starts with inflation. Warsh has suggested that traditional inflation measures may overstate current price pressures and that alternative metrics, such as Dallas Trimmed PCE, paint a much cooler picture. If inflation is closer to target than headline data suggests, the justification for maintaining restrictive policy becomes much weaker. Another key piece of the thesis is productivity. Warsh has repeatedly discussed the transformative impact of AI on economic output. If artificial intelligence drives a meaningful productivity boom, the economy could grow faster without generating the same inflationary pressures that normally accompany growth. That would give the Fed more room to lower rates without reigniting inflation. The discussion also highlights the possibility that recent inflation pressures are being driven by temporary factors, particularly energy prices and geopolitical tensions. If those pressures ease, inflation could fall naturally, strengthening the case for easier monetary policy. There is also a broader economic backdrop to consider. The administration has made economic growth, domestic manufacturing, and reindustrialization central priorities. Building factories, infrastructure, and supply chains requires capital, and high interest rates make those investments more difficult. Lower rates would provide the financial fuel needed to accelerate those goals. The most controversial part of the conversation is the suggestion that Warsh could deliver not just a rate cut, but potentially a larger-than-expected cut (50 bps) if he wants to quickly reset policy. While that remains a low-probability outcome, Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" argues that markets may be underestimating the possibility of a significant shift in direction. If that happens, stocks could respond very positively as lower rates improve liquidity, reduce financing costs, and support higher valuations. However, the bigger story may be in #bonds. Long-term Treasury investors could view aggressive easing as inflationary or fiscally irresponsible, pushing #yields sharply higher. In that scenario, equities celebrate the pivot while the bond market revolts. So, according to Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world", Kevin Warsh may not follow the path investors currently expect. If he embraces alternative inflation measures, leans on the AI productivity story, and prioritizes growth, the market could be forced to rapidly reprice both interest-rate expectations and long-term bond yields. 🔽Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

Thoughtful Money®

11,749 次观看 • 2 个月前

"Frankly–we could've gone higher, we had the chances but instead of dreaming again for something bigger, l want to laugh & be happy. Even if it's a little lower, a little slower. I want to make music with BTS for a long time." This is decision to not buy into the industry machine. To not compromise, and not allow themselves to be someone's tool. Is what gave BTS the ability to enlist and not be used as puppets. It's what gives them the POWER to say NO to the Grammys and not look back. In this world of "go big or go home," BTS chose "a little lower, a little slower." And THAT decision—cut the strings that the industry wanted to tie on them and gave them the power of FREEDOM.
0:21

"Frankly–we could've gone higher, we had the chances but instead of dreaming again for something bigger, l want to laugh & be happy. Even if it's a little lower, a little slower. I want to make music with BTS for a long time." This is decision to not buy into the industry machine. To not compromise, and not allow themselves to be someone's tool. Is what gave BTS the ability to enlist and not be used as puppets. It's what gives them the POWER to say NO to the Grammys and not look back. In this world of "go big or go home," BTS chose "a little lower, a little slower." And THAT decision—cut the strings that the industry wanted to tie on them and gave them the power of FREEDOM.

𝓛𝓤𝓛𝓤 ⁷(⟭⟬E ARE B⟬⟭CK) Loving Our 7 since ²⁰¹³

41,643 次观看 • 23 天前