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MUST WATCH: Lyn Alden on US deficits ‘Nothing Stops This Train’ “The problem now is with well over 100% debt-to-GDP, when they raise interest rates, they increase the deficit faster than they slow private sector credit growth. Basically… the brakes don’t work anymore.”

Geiger Capital

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174,588 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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you see what happens larry1 year ago

@LynAldenContact He's a dude

Noble Gold Investments3 years ago

Protect your money now! Two US banks collapsed, billions trapped. Invest in gold, a retirement hedge outside of the government's control.

Royrogers551 year ago

@LynAldenContact Do you remember the other nine times the US defaulted? Me neither, because the US doesn't default, it just presses reset. See Plaza Accords, Fiat Currency Regime in '71, WW2, 1913, etc.

Christopher Mcdowell1 year ago

@LynAldenContact This analyst is excellent.✅@_Jamie__Jackson 🧡 💛 🫦

Middle Man1 year ago

@LynAldenContact Recession will inevitably occur (always does), and when it does, the markets and bond yields will tumble. Guess what else will tumble at the same time? BTC. It’s just a QQQ proxy.

Marc Burns1 year ago

@LynAldenContact I guess you haven't read his post yet! 📈📈@SharisaGaymon The analysis is simply amazing! 🎈 🌻 🎉 🎉

Handsome Isaac Azimov1 year ago

@LynAldenContact Is it a man or a woman? Serious answers only.

EO1 year ago

@LynAldenContact Venezuela here we come

Simon Manning1 year ago

@LynAldenContact I dont see why, sorry. Strange kid, very low on the learning curve. I'd pay more attention to Scott Bessent

Lata. M e/acc1 year ago

@LynAldenContact Oh Lyn. These crypto peeps have no understand of geopolitics and how the global system is truly structured. We’re all on fiat. We’re all over 100% debt to GDP but only one nation is the reserve currency. Only one nation defines the global order. Only one nation truly innovates.

Edward Beggs1 year ago

@LynAldenContact Bessent is up against it for sure but may have more levers than anyone anticipates. I sure hope so, but Lynn frames things accurately. She has long argued that YCC will likely be used and that is one of the levers

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Lyn Alden: The market keeps relying on outdated inflation patterns. Everyone learned from the 70s that "the solution to inflation is always higher rates." But that was an era when money creation came from bank lending. "When you're in fiscal dominance... every time they raise interest rates, they actually blow out the fiscal deficit even more." The Fed is fighting the wrong fire with the wrong tool. FT David Lin Lyn Alden ego death capital.

Lyn Alden: The market keeps relying on outdated inflation patterns. Everyone learned from the 70s that "the solution to inflation is always higher rates." But that was an era when money creation came from bank lending. "When you're in fiscal dominance... every time they raise interest rates, they actually blow out the fiscal deficit even more." The Fed is fighting the wrong fire with the wrong tool. FT David Lin Lyn Alden ego death capital.

Milk Road

324,213 views • 3 months ago

Lyn Alden: Gold rallied despite positive real rates... that's supposed to be impossible. Fiscal dominance broke the old rulebook. Back in the Volcker era, hiking rates actually slowed bank lending. Today "bank lending was not excessive at any point during these inflationary spikes" but you have well over 100% debt to GDP. "When you raise interest rates, you actually blow out the federal deficit more than you slow down total bank lending. So we're kind of through the looking glass on monetary policy." FT The Investor's Podcast Stig T. Brodersen Lyn Alden. Follow for more: Milk Road Crypto

Lyn Alden: Gold rallied despite positive real rates... that's supposed to be impossible. Fiscal dominance broke the old rulebook. Back in the Volcker era, hiking rates actually slowed bank lending. Today "bank lending was not excessive at any point during these inflationary spikes" but you have well over 100% debt to GDP. "When you raise interest rates, you actually blow out the federal deficit more than you slow down total bank lending. So we're kind of through the looking glass on monetary policy." FT The Investor's Podcast Stig T. Brodersen Lyn Alden. Follow for more: Milk Road Crypto

Milk Road Crypto

24,599 views • 2 months ago

Lyn Alden: Financial repression is the endgame for developed countries with too much debt. They hold interest rates artificially below money supply growth. Sometimes they force people to hold the currency - the US literally banned gold ownership. "For the land of the free, you couldn't own a benign yellow metal because it was competition to what they wanted to do with the currency." Over years and decades they siphon value away and "kind of reset the system." FT Lyn Alden Peter McCormack 🏴‍☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪.

Lyn Alden: Financial repression is the endgame for developed countries with too much debt. They hold interest rates artificially below money supply growth. Sometimes they force people to hold the currency - the US literally banned gold ownership. "For the land of the free, you couldn't own a benign yellow metal because it was competition to what they wanted to do with the currency." Over years and decades they siphon value away and "kind of reset the system." FT Lyn Alden Peter McCormack 🏴‍☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪.

Milk Road Crypto

108,640 views • 3 months ago

Lyn Alden: People keep asking "when will the debt matter?" Like there's some big day of reckoning coming. "Sovereign debt tends to work differently. It tends to be more of a process." "It has been mattering... since about 2018/2019." The US deficit is now bigger than ALL private bank lending combined. That's never happened outside a recession before. FT Lyn Alden Danny Knowles.

Lyn Alden: People keep asking "when will the debt matter?" Like there's some big day of reckoning coming. "Sovereign debt tends to work differently. It tends to be more of a process." "It has been mattering... since about 2018/2019." The US deficit is now bigger than ALL private bank lending combined. That's never happened outside a recession before. FT Lyn Alden Danny Knowles.

Milk Road Crypto

322,226 views • 3 months ago

Rick Rule: Politically, the Fed will ultimately have to lower interest rates. We have entered an inflationary era similar to the 70s, but the fiscal situation is vastly different. - Debt/GDP: ~30% then vs ~123% now - Interest expense: ~$50B then vs ~$1.2T now - Deficits: ~1–4% then vs ~6% now In fact, the government now pays more in annual interest expenses than the entire US debt was in the late 70s. But it’s not just the government that can’t afford higher rates. Markets will feel it too: - Private credit - Consumer durables - Real estate All are heavily impacted by higher interest rates. Sooner rather than later, political pressure will force the Fed to lower rates. Volcker was able to hike aggressively because debt/GDP had been inflated away after WW2. Today, debt/GDP is above WW2-era levels, which is why the US can’t fight inflation the same way it did in the early 80s. First you inflate the debt away to a more manageable level... Then you raise rates to kill inflation. Not the other way around.

Rick Rule: Politically, the Fed will ultimately have to lower interest rates. We have entered an inflationary era similar to the 70s, but the fiscal situation is vastly different. - Debt/GDP: ~30% then vs ~123% now - Interest expense: ~$50B then vs ~$1.2T now - Deficits: ~1–4% then vs ~6% now In fact, the government now pays more in annual interest expenses than the entire US debt was in the late 70s. But it’s not just the government that can’t afford higher rates. Markets will feel it too: - Private credit - Consumer durables - Real estate All are heavily impacted by higher interest rates. Sooner rather than later, political pressure will force the Fed to lower rates. Volcker was able to hike aggressively because debt/GDP had been inflated away after WW2. Today, debt/GDP is above WW2-era levels, which is why the US can’t fight inflation the same way it did in the early 80s. First you inflate the debt away to a more manageable level... Then you raise rates to kill inflation. Not the other way around.

Lukas Ekwueme

54,518 views • 3 months ago

Central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. Gold above $3,560/oz. Futures at $3,630. Trust in fiat is cracking. As Lyn Alden warns: “Nothing stops this train.” the U.S. is locked in a sovereign debt loop of fiscal dominance that can only end through inflation, devaluation, or reset. I break it down with Lyn Alden watch

Central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. Gold above $3,560/oz. Futures at $3,630. Trust in fiat is cracking. As Lyn Alden warns: “Nothing stops this train.” the U.S. is locked in a sovereign debt loop of fiscal dominance that can only end through inflation, devaluation, or reset. I break it down with Lyn Alden watch

Michelle Makori

55,779 views • 1 year ago

LYN ALDEN: "Let's say you have a $500 billion hole that shows up in private credit. That's three months of US deficit spending. You can snap your fingers and make that problem go away. We live in a fiat world. But when you have molecules that just can't get to where they have to go at that scale… the Fed can't print oil." Lyn Alden

LYN ALDEN: "Let's say you have a $500 billion hole that shows up in private credit. That's three months of US deficit spending. You can snap your fingers and make that problem go away. We live in a fiat world. But when you have molecules that just can't get to where they have to go at that scale… the Fed can't print oil." Lyn Alden

Danny Knowles

333,486 views • 6 months ago

Trump: We could have GDP of 10, 12, 15 times if they just leave us alone. Let interest rates go down. It’s a very unfair system. They should drop interest rates because it means we have a strong country and it's all based on credit, meaning good credit, and we have the best credit and we'd pay off the debt very easily, very quickly.

Trump: We could have GDP of 10, 12, 15 times if they just leave us alone. Let interest rates go down. It’s a very unfair system. They should drop interest rates because it means we have a strong country and it's all based on credit, meaning good credit, and we have the best credit and we'd pay off the debt very easily, very quickly.

Acyn

1,599,664 views • 1 month ago

The US trade deficit is HOMEMADE. US savings are less than US investments. The gap is filled by a trade deficit. Trade deficits have been GOOD for Americans. They allow Americans to consume more than they produce. My debate with UChicago Prof. Tomas Philipson at Al Arabiya English:

The US trade deficit is HOMEMADE. US savings are less than US investments. The gap is filled by a trade deficit. Trade deficits have been GOOD for Americans. They allow Americans to consume more than they produce. My debate with UChicago Prof. Tomas Philipson at Al Arabiya English:

Steve Hanke

13,326 views • 1 year ago

The national debt soared to record highs with the US facing trillion dollar deficits and record debt. Why should top earners and corporations pay even less in taxes than they do now? Watch Now ➡️ #kennedyshanahan24 #therealdebate

The national debt soared to record highs with the US facing trillion dollar deficits and record debt. Why should top earners and corporations pay even less in taxes than they do now? Watch Now ➡️ #kennedyshanahan24 #therealdebate

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

191,363 views • 2 years ago

Lyn Alden gave one of the clearest breakdowns of why the U.S. is on an unstoppable fiscal path—and why Bitcoin matters more than ever because of it. Lyn Alden walks through the numbers behind the federal deficit, interest expenses, Social Security, and the structural changes that happened post-2008. The short version? We’re in a new era. One where the government can’t slow down even if it wanted to. The debt is compounding. The interest expense is rising. The trust funds are running dry. And the political will to do anything about it doesn’t exist. Her phrase: “Nothing stops this train.” Not because of ideology, but because of math—and human nature. This isn’t hyperinflation doom-talk. It’s a sober look at what happens when a system built on ever-growing debt reaches its limits—and why Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and transparent rules, is the opposite of that system. Highly recommend watching this one all the way through.

Lyn Alden gave one of the clearest breakdowns of why the U.S. is on an unstoppable fiscal path—and why Bitcoin matters more than ever because of it. Lyn Alden walks through the numbers behind the federal deficit, interest expenses, Social Security, and the structural changes that happened post-2008. The short version? We’re in a new era. One where the government can’t slow down even if it wanted to. The debt is compounding. The interest expense is rising. The trust funds are running dry. And the political will to do anything about it doesn’t exist. Her phrase: “Nothing stops this train.” Not because of ideology, but because of math—and human nature. This isn’t hyperinflation doom-talk. It’s a sober look at what happens when a system built on ever-growing debt reaches its limits—and why Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and transparent rules, is the opposite of that system. Highly recommend watching this one all the way through.

Lysander

417,717 views • 1 year ago

The whole economy is essentially running on one giant credit card. Governments are locked into a debt cycle they cant get out of... nothing ever gets paid back. When the debt comes due they roll it into new debt, and the interest gets paid with more borrowing. One credit card paying off the other. The only real way out is growth. But you cant grow when your population is shrinking. Fewer working people means less growth, so GDP never rises fast enough to catch up with the debt. So how does the bill get paid? Liquidity. Nobody in the system is allowed to default, so the debt is funded by debasing the currency. This is my Everything Code framework. The debt can't stop, so the debasement can't stop either, and every asset price is downstream of that.

The whole economy is essentially running on one giant credit card. Governments are locked into a debt cycle they cant get out of... nothing ever gets paid back. When the debt comes due they roll it into new debt, and the interest gets paid with more borrowing. One credit card paying off the other. The only real way out is growth. But you cant grow when your population is shrinking. Fewer working people means less growth, so GDP never rises fast enough to catch up with the debt. So how does the bill get paid? Liquidity. Nobody in the system is allowed to default, so the debt is funded by debasing the currency. This is my Everything Code framework. The debt can't stop, so the debasement can't stop either, and every asset price is downstream of that.

Raoul Pal

103,511 views • 1 month ago

LYN ALDEN SAYS THE OLD BITCOIN CYCLE IS DEAD Lyn Alden said the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle isn’t as relevant anymore. With BTC’s annual supply growth now well under 1% -- lower than gold -- halvings aren’t the main driver they used to be. What matters more now is sentiment and valuation. 💯 She pointed out that interest has shifted to AI and gold, #Bitcoin treasury premiums have collapsed, and on-chain metrics have compressed — making $BTC more attractive, not less. Her takeaway is this isn’t the time to chase excitement, but it’s the time to lean in when Bitcoin feels boring and ignored. That’s usually where long-term entries get built. 💪 📹 Paul Barron Network

LYN ALDEN SAYS THE OLD BITCOIN CYCLE IS DEAD Lyn Alden said the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle isn’t as relevant anymore. With BTC’s annual supply growth now well under 1% -- lower than gold -- halvings aren’t the main driver they used to be. What matters more now is sentiment and valuation. 💯 She pointed out that interest has shifted to AI and gold, #Bitcoin treasury premiums have collapsed, and on-chain metrics have compressed — making $BTC more attractive, not less. Her takeaway is this isn’t the time to chase excitement, but it’s the time to lean in when Bitcoin feels boring and ignored. That’s usually where long-term entries get built. 💪 📹 Paul Barron Network

CryptosRus

76,910 views • 10 months ago

Why is fiscal dominance inevitable? On U Got Options, I ask Lyn Alden why "this train doesn't stop." She explains the historical rotation from private debt bubbles to the public ledger. When the system hits the zero-bound, the only path forward is printing and fiscal injections. The momentum of 50 years of debt is now the driver. Full episode:

Why is fiscal dominance inevitable? On U Got Options, I ask Lyn Alden why "this train doesn't stop." She explains the historical rotation from private debt bubbles to the public ledger. When the system hits the zero-bound, the only path forward is printing and fiscal injections. The momentum of 50 years of debt is now the driver. Full episode:

Cem Karsan 🥐

63,737 views • 5 months ago

If you gave your child a credit card and they kept hitting the limit, you wouldn’t just raise their credit limit—you’d sit down and help them figure out where they could cut back on spending. The same is true of our debt. Now is the time for a responsible debt limit increase.

If you gave your child a credit card and they kept hitting the limit, you wouldn’t just raise their credit limit—you’d sit down and help them figure out where they could cut back on spending. The same is true of our debt. Now is the time for a responsible debt limit increase.

Kevin McCarthy

3,603,409 views • 3 years ago

🚨 Lyn Alden ON WHY NOTHING STOPS THE DEBT SPIRAL: "Congress going to say, 'The 10-year is over 5%, maybe we should trim defense spending or reform Social Security and Medicare?' It's not gonna happen. There's no political will to do that. Less than 1% chance. Negligible." On how it plays out instead: "If the Treasury market ever breaks, instead of Congress doing anything, the Fed steps in. They kind of have to because financial stability and moderate long-term yields are part of their mandate. Congress isn't doing it because the people don't really want it. They want a balanced budget in theory. But do you want to cut this, this, and this, or raise your taxes? 'Well, no.'" On the historical endpoint: "The end game for highly indebted governments, nearly 100% of the time, ends with financial repression, trying to inflate that debt away, and impairing cash and bondholders. Whether it's the central bank doing it, whether it's the Treasury doing it, whether they take turns, these are the types of things you see when you start getting over 100% debt to GDP and no realistic austerity anywhere near the horizon."

🚨 Lyn Alden ON WHY NOTHING STOPS THE DEBT SPIRAL: "Congress going to say, 'The 10-year is over 5%, maybe we should trim defense spending or reform Social Security and Medicare?' It's not gonna happen. There's no political will to do that. Less than 1% chance. Negligible." On how it plays out instead: "If the Treasury market ever breaks, instead of Congress doing anything, the Fed steps in. They kind of have to because financial stability and moderate long-term yields are part of their mandate. Congress isn't doing it because the people don't really want it. They want a balanced budget in theory. But do you want to cut this, this, and this, or raise your taxes? 'Well, no.'" On the historical endpoint: "The end game for highly indebted governments, nearly 100% of the time, ends with financial repression, trying to inflate that debt away, and impairing cash and bondholders. Whether it's the central bank doing it, whether it's the Treasury doing it, whether they take turns, these are the types of things you see when you start getting over 100% debt to GDP and no realistic austerity anywhere near the horizon."

WOLF Terminal

162,797 views • 25 days ago

David Friedberg: Higher Interest Rates Are About to Make America’s $40 Trillion Debt Problem Much Worse “The federal government has a problem because over the next 12 months they have to refinance $10 trillion of debt. That debt is coming due. Those bonds are now due. They have to pay the principal back to the bond holders, and they have to go back to the treasury market and sell more treasuries to borrow more money to refinance. So the borrowing cost now is going to climb up, and when that borrowing cost climbs up, the federal government's burn goes up and the fiscal deficit goes up. So my theory and my argument on this is: There is no action that Bessent can take that's actually going to have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve. We have a fundamental fiscal spending problem with the federal government right now. It is very expensive now to borrow money if you're the US federal government. And the reason is persistent inflation, I would argue because of excess government spending on social programs and other things. And the big problem at this point is the federal government is spending so much that if they were to cut spending aggressively, the argument and the concern is it would hit unemployment and it would cause a recession because the federal government is such an intricate part of the economy now. That's the argument. But it's causing inflation, and it's causing deficit spending. So this year the deficit will be roughly $2 trillion. And as a result, the market is saying, ‘We're worried about the US fiscal solvency over the long run, or there's a higher risk. As a result, we're going to charge you a higher interest, 5.2% on the 30 year.’ What does this mean for the federal government? Well, today, the federal government's average cost of debt is 3.4%. That's what we're paying on interest on average on the $40 trillion of debt that the federal government has outstanding. For every 1% change in the interest rate, the US government has to pay 1.25% of GDP in excess interest each year. 1.25% of GDP in interest each year for that 1% change in the interest rate.”

David Friedberg: Higher Interest Rates Are About to Make America’s $40 Trillion Debt Problem Much Worse “The federal government has a problem because over the next 12 months they have to refinance $10 trillion of debt. That debt is coming due. Those bonds are now due. They have to pay the principal back to the bond holders, and they have to go back to the treasury market and sell more treasuries to borrow more money to refinance. So the borrowing cost now is going to climb up, and when that borrowing cost climbs up, the federal government's burn goes up and the fiscal deficit goes up. So my theory and my argument on this is: There is no action that Bessent can take that's actually going to have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve. We have a fundamental fiscal spending problem with the federal government right now. It is very expensive now to borrow money if you're the US federal government. And the reason is persistent inflation, I would argue because of excess government spending on social programs and other things. And the big problem at this point is the federal government is spending so much that if they were to cut spending aggressively, the argument and the concern is it would hit unemployment and it would cause a recession because the federal government is such an intricate part of the economy now. That's the argument. But it's causing inflation, and it's causing deficit spending. So this year the deficit will be roughly $2 trillion. And as a result, the market is saying, ‘We're worried about the US fiscal solvency over the long run, or there's a higher risk. As a result, we're going to charge you a higher interest, 5.2% on the 30 year.’ What does this mean for the federal government? Well, today, the federal government's average cost of debt is 3.4%. That's what we're paying on interest on average on the $40 trillion of debt that the federal government has outstanding. For every 1% change in the interest rate, the US government has to pay 1.25% of GDP in excess interest each year. 1.25% of GDP in interest each year for that 1% change in the interest rate.”

The All-In Podcast

335,190 views • 1 month ago