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My perhaps somewhat controversial thoughts on the non-alcoholic beverage market: I think it's an interesting market, and I think it will continue to grow. But I just don't think it's nearly as big as many of the articles, media coverage, and pitch decks I'm seeing are indicating. Many of...

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Noah Sanborn Friedman

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10,392 次观看 • 2 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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Courtyard Brewery 的头像
Courtyard Brewery2 年前

The same will be true for weed drinks but it will be more drastic. You can't drink 4 - 5 weed sodas like you can a low alcohol beer. Too much sugar. Too much impairment. Bars will move away from them quickly once they figure out their overall sales are dipping.

Noah Sanborn Friedman 的头像
Noah Sanborn Friedman2 年前

Interesting POV. Hadn't thought about it like that. I'm generally bullish on cannabis in beverages but it's a good point that they're not super sessionable.

Sahil Bloom 的头像
Sahil Bloom2 年前

Given the size of the overall market for alcohol brands, even a small share for non-alc co's could mean substantial businesses - though I doubt it will result in a true "replacement."

Blake Burge 的头像
Blake Burge2 年前

I tend to agree here. Lindy Effect in full force.

Noah Sanborn Friedman 的头像
Noah Sanborn Friedman2 年前

Absolutely

Nic Mahaney 的头像
Nic Mahaney2 年前

This is a good take.

Noah Sanborn Friedman 的头像
Noah Sanborn Friedman2 年前

Have spent a lot of time researching and thinking about this. Will continue to update my thoughts as they evolve !

brian laird 的头像
brian laird2 年前

Generally agree. Big brewers offer it for a few valid reasons, but non big brewer brands will be few, imo.

Noah Sanborn Friedman 的头像
Noah Sanborn Friedman2 年前

There will be some though! What athletic brewing has done is amazing. They’re a special brand

brian laird 的头像
brian laird2 年前

Also, I have more sparkling water than ever at our parties. That seems to be the number 1 alcohol replacement drink.

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I think it's going to take a very, very long time for that to happen, if ever. I think the days of free money are over. Why is that? I think the economy is moving into a more productive phase. It's one of the reasons the indices are at new highs, driven by AI. I think the economy is stronger than people think. I think the tariff issues will be gone by the end of the year, and that we settle into a 10 to 15% range. I'm very bullish on what's gonna happen in productivity, and I, I just don't see interest rates in the US, the world's strongest economy, being dropped dramatically.
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I think it's going to take a very, very long time for that to happen, if ever. I think the days of free money are over. Why is that? I think the economy is moving into a more productive phase. It's one of the reasons the indices are at new highs, driven by AI. I think the economy is stronger than people think. I think the tariff issues will be gone by the end of the year, and that we settle into a 10 to 15% range. I'm very bullish on what's gonna happen in productivity, and I, I just don't see interest rates in the US, the world's strongest economy, being dropped dramatically.

Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful

51,481 次观看 • 11 个月前

🐈‍⬛ We have never lost that unique 'ENHYPEN' quality and I don't think we ever will in the future. But while always maintaining that identity, I believe the quality this time around will really show people, 'This is ENHYPEN.' That's why I'm looking forward to it a lot, and I just have a ton of confidence in it, no matter what anyone says. I hope that ENGENEs will love it just as much. Personally, I think this is a point in time where it's time to hit another career high, and I have the confidence that this album can achieve that and even more. I am already anticipating that this album will play that kind of role. It's certain, and I believe it will be an album that holds that much meaning for me
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🐈‍⬛ We have never lost that unique 'ENHYPEN' quality and I don't think we ever will in the future. But while always maintaining that identity, I believe the quality this time around will really show people, 'This is ENHYPEN.' That's why I'm looking forward to it a lot, and I just have a ton of confidence in it, no matter what anyone says. I hope that ENGENEs will love it just as much. Personally, I think this is a point in time where it's time to hit another career high, and I have the confidence that this album can achieve that and even more. I am already anticipating that this album will play that kind of role. It's certain, and I believe it will be an album that holds that much meaning for me

🦊♡🐰ྀི | fan acc

71,366 次观看 • 28 天前

Trump last year: I think the stock market is going up because I'm leading Biden in all of the polls…I think there will be a crash if I don't win.
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Republicans against Trump

553,919 次观看 • 1 年前

Carlos just asking fans to be a little bit kinder and respectful towards driver’s personal space “I don't know how many people see this. It's just.. be aware you are interrupting someone's privacy. So at least, especially the younger generation that I think are the ones that take it for granted that a picture is for free and a selfie is a must. At least some message, I think, more to the younger generation of it's not normal to go on ask. Just be nice, be polite. And that's the only message I guess I use this moment for.”
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Carlos just asking fans to be a little bit kinder and respectful towards driver’s personal space “I don't know how many people see this. It's just.. be aware you are interrupting someone's privacy. So at least, especially the younger generation that I think are the ones that take it for granted that a picture is for free and a selfie is a must. At least some message, I think, more to the younger generation of it's not normal to go on ask. Just be nice, be polite. And that's the only message I guess I use this moment for.”

ari 🦄✨

207,265 次观看 • 5 个月前

Linus Torvalds, creator of Linux, on why AI is both a bubble and a revolution at the same time: His answer refuses the binary, laying out why both things can be true at once: "I mean, clearly, it's clearly both, right? It's clearly a bubble and at the same time, it's very interesting and I think it will change society and I think it will change how most skilled jobs get done." But he pushes back on the maximalist framing: "At the same time, I don't think it's as revolutionary as people make it out to be." When asked about artists being angry that AI models were trained on their work without consent, Linus is blunt: "That's reality. Deal with it. That genie is out of the bottle. You're not getting it back. And you're not getting it back whether you are a photographer who's out of work… or you're a programmer that has to learn to deal with a new reality." On programming specifically, he's more optimistic, though he has a sharp caveat about vibe coding: "I really think that AI will be a tool and it will make people more productive. I think that vibe coding is great for getting into programming. I think it's going to be a horrible thing to maintain." His conclusion is that programmers aren't going anywhere: "You still want to have the people who know how to maintain the end result." Linus separates the technology from the noise around it: "I'm a huge believer in AI. I'm not a huge believer in the whole things going on around AI. I find the marketing and the market to be sick and twisted and there is going to be a crash and it's not… it's going to be ugly."
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Linus Torvalds, creator of Linux, on why AI is both a bubble and a revolution at the same time: His answer refuses the binary, laying out why both things can be true at once: "I mean, clearly, it's clearly both, right? It's clearly a bubble and at the same time, it's very interesting and I think it will change society and I think it will change how most skilled jobs get done." But he pushes back on the maximalist framing: "At the same time, I don't think it's as revolutionary as people make it out to be." When asked about artists being angry that AI models were trained on their work without consent, Linus is blunt: "That's reality. Deal with it. That genie is out of the bottle. You're not getting it back. And you're not getting it back whether you are a photographer who's out of work… or you're a programmer that has to learn to deal with a new reality." On programming specifically, he's more optimistic, though he has a sharp caveat about vibe coding: "I really think that AI will be a tool and it will make people more productive. I think that vibe coding is great for getting into programming. I think it's going to be a horrible thing to maintain." His conclusion is that programmers aren't going anywhere: "You still want to have the people who know how to maintain the end result." Linus separates the technology from the noise around it: "I'm a huge believer in AI. I'm not a huge believer in the whole things going on around AI. I find the marketing and the market to be sick and twisted and there is going to be a crash and it's not… it's going to be ugly."

Big Brain AI

52,726 次观看 • 3 个月前

“I know that I won't have this moment again in this exact same way. I think the success of Brat and the success of the marketing of Brat is also in ways a curse. I'm not going to be able to market my next album in the same way. I'll pivot, but whatever I do next will be compared. Even if the music is completely different, the scale, the way it's rolled out, the level of conversation, I'm aware that whatever comes next, this [Brat] is kind of the albatross.”
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“I know that I won't have this moment again in this exact same way. I think the success of Brat and the success of the marketing of Brat is also in ways a curse. I'm not going to be able to market my next album in the same way. I'll pivot, but whatever I do next will be compared. Even if the music is completely different, the scale, the way it's rolled out, the level of conversation, I'm aware that whatever comes next, this [Brat] is kind of the albatross.”

sophia

74,191 次观看 • 2 个月前

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Pope Leo: "The message of the church, my message, the message of the gospel -- blessed are the peacemakers. I do not look at my role as being political or a politician. I don't want to get into a debate with him. I don't think that the message of the gospel is meant to be abused in the way that some people are doing, and I will continue to speak out loudly against war."

Aaron Rupar

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ELON CLIPS

10,796 次观看 • 1 个月前

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"I could see the growth of the stablecoin market dramatically eclipsing the growth of the euro dollar market. And so over time, you've kind of got these parallel systems and the new system is kind of cannibalizing the old system. But I also think, from a government's perspective, you don't want it all just to disappear because of some blackout or some. So I think physical currency is still going to exist. One of the ways that they fund these black projects is through cash because it's not traceable, right? I don't think that the Pentagon wants to put all of their transactions on the blockchain that everybody can see. It's almost like a belt in suspenders. They're going to have kind of redundant systems. And so one system is physical cash. Another system is gold. Another system is the traditional euro dollar market. And the newest system is this US dollar stablecoin. So it's a number of different systems through which you can deliver the same value." Santiago Capital of 💰 🔗

Geopolitics & Empire

18,942 次观看 • 6 个月前

I understand a mother will do anything for her baby but I also don't think that was the best she could do... I think having a child seriously changes the way you think and perceive things.. And as people we think of random scenarios to solve and at least look for the best answers all the time.. Whether I have to sacrifice myself or not, I will always make sure my child is out of harms way which requires a lot of quick decision making and on the fly choices....
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I understand a mother will do anything for her baby but I also don't think that was the best she could do... I think having a child seriously changes the way you think and perceive things.. And as people we think of random scenarios to solve and at least look for the best answers all the time.. Whether I have to sacrifice myself or not, I will always make sure my child is out of harms way which requires a lot of quick decision making and on the fly choices....

Every movie 🎬🍿

930,129 次观看 • 3 个月前

David Sacks: The Techno-Realist On E215, David Sacks explained a third category outside of techno-optimist and doomer: "Given the choice between the two categories of techno-optimist and techno-pessimist, I'm definitely in the optimist camp. And I think we should be." "But I think there's actually a third category that I would submit: techno-realist." "Which is, technology is going to happen. Trying to stop it is like ordering the tides to stop." "AI is going to happen. We might as well be the leader." "If we don't do it, somebody else will. China's going to do it or somebody else will do it." "If we don't, we could lose in a key category that has implications for national security, for our economy, for many things." "That's just not a world we want to live in." "So, I think a lot of this debate is sort of academic because the question is just, is it going to happen or not?" "And I think the answer is yes. So then we want to control it." "There's not a tremendous amount of choice in this, I think."
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David Sacks: The Techno-Realist On E215, David Sacks explained a third category outside of techno-optimist and doomer: "Given the choice between the two categories of techno-optimist and techno-pessimist, I'm definitely in the optimist camp. And I think we should be." "But I think there's actually a third category that I would submit: techno-realist." "Which is, technology is going to happen. Trying to stop it is like ordering the tides to stop." "AI is going to happen. We might as well be the leader." "If we don't do it, somebody else will. China's going to do it or somebody else will do it." "If we don't, we could lose in a key category that has implications for national security, for our economy, for many things." "That's just not a world we want to live in." "So, I think a lot of this debate is sort of academic because the question is just, is it going to happen or not?" "And I think the answer is yes. So then we want to control it." "There's not a tremendous amount of choice in this, I think."

The All-In Podcast

154,319 次观看 • 1 年前

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23,860 次观看 • 2 个月前

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0:59

"I have no reason to think this is the bottom. I think by the end of Q3 we've definitely hit the bottom and are turning back around. The idea that the four year cycle was dead is overstated" Alex Miller on how he's viewing the market "I don't really care what the market does in the next six months. It doesn't affect what I do because I learned long ago that I do not know how to time the market. I'm not an active trader" "I have no reason to think this is the bottom. I don't buy into the argument that there's some structural thing going on right now that makes the 65, 58 we had last week, the 64 we're at now, the bottom of the market. Macro things can happen"

The Wolf Of All Streets

33,817 次观看 • 2 个月前

"It's not that I think Kenneth Walker is a superstar. It's that I think teams are going to have to at least SOMEWHAT respect the running game for the first time in 3 years. That will help Patrick." Colin Cowherd and nick wright agree the Chiefs will be back in the playoffs
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"It's not that I think Kenneth Walker is a superstar. It's that I think teams are going to have to at least SOMEWHAT respect the running game for the first time in 3 years. That will help Patrick." Colin Cowherd and nick wright agree the Chiefs will be back in the playoffs

Herd w/Colin Cowherd

70,372 次观看 • 13 天前

xQc speaks on GoW changing their protagonist to a female 👀 "Even though I get it, it's a female protagonist, and it;'s less appealing for men, I think they hit key points that make the product a good sell. You need to see the games as their selling a product to a market they've made and cared to. Changing to a female protagonist is absolutely for the market they have. Denying that is... I think inc-ls are weird, I think denying inc-ls exist and form a portion of the market is also as stupid. I think they're both equally stupid.""
1:17

xQc speaks on GoW changing their protagonist to a female 👀 "Even though I get it, it's a female protagonist, and it;'s less appealing for men, I think they hit key points that make the product a good sell. You need to see the games as their selling a product to a market they've made and cared to. Changing to a female protagonist is absolutely for the market they have. Denying that is... I think inc-ls are weird, I think denying inc-ls exist and form a portion of the market is also as stupid. I think they're both equally stupid.""

xQc Daily

118,151 次观看 • 2 个月前

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Asked how he expects the stock market to respond to President Trump's announcement, Treasury Secretary Bessent tells me, “I don't know. I don't know where it's going to open tomorrow. I don't know where it's going to close tomorrow." "I think what's going to be important are the underlying economic fundamentals, because at the end of the day, as Warren Buffett says, in the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it's a weighing machine.”

Kaitlan Collins

691,281 次观看 • 1 年前

.David Sacks: "You're gonna see in the wake of this is that a lot of Jewish people are realizing that they don't have a home on the left anymore. And I expect that many Jews are going to start shifting right into the Republican Party, to a place where I've been for a while.... But I think what's happened over the last few decades is that the civil rights movement, in particular, and the left have moved to this woke ideology where it's no longer about colorblindness. It's more about identity groups. And instead of trying to get past racial differences, it's been about accentuating them. And so we've had this whole equity agenda, which is really defined as redistribution from one racial group to another racial group. I think that, for whatever reason, a lot of Jews just hadn't confronted the reality that the left had really changed in this way. I think it goes back to the fact that they thought if we're going to be defining identity groups in this woke way, Jews obviously should be one of these victim groups, but they're waking up to the fact that Jews are not. Jews are in the minds of this woke ideology, just white people with a Jewish background. As a result, they're part of an oppressor class. And I think that a lot of Jewish people who are waking up to this are realizing this is actually a very destructive ideology, and it makes us the bad guys. So I would expect that, again, a lot of Jewish people are waking up to how the left has changed... and I would expect there to be kind of a pilgrimage now of more Jews in America towards the right, as opposed to remaining on the left where they've always been." Via The All-In Podcast:
3:45

.David Sacks: "You're gonna see in the wake of this is that a lot of Jewish people are realizing that they don't have a home on the left anymore. And I expect that many Jews are going to start shifting right into the Republican Party, to a place where I've been for a while.... But I think what's happened over the last few decades is that the civil rights movement, in particular, and the left have moved to this woke ideology where it's no longer about colorblindness. It's more about identity groups. And instead of trying to get past racial differences, it's been about accentuating them. And so we've had this whole equity agenda, which is really defined as redistribution from one racial group to another racial group. I think that, for whatever reason, a lot of Jews just hadn't confronted the reality that the left had really changed in this way. I think it goes back to the fact that they thought if we're going to be defining identity groups in this woke way, Jews obviously should be one of these victim groups, but they're waking up to the fact that Jews are not. Jews are in the minds of this woke ideology, just white people with a Jewish background. As a result, they're part of an oppressor class. And I think that a lot of Jewish people who are waking up to this are realizing this is actually a very destructive ideology, and it makes us the bad guys. So I would expect that, again, a lot of Jewish people are waking up to how the left has changed... and I would expect there to be kind of a pilgrimage now of more Jews in America towards the right, as opposed to remaining on the left where they've always been." Via The All-In Podcast:

KanekoaTheGreat

543,004 次观看 • 2 年前