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My script turned $100 into $60,535 in one month I decided to build my own script with the help of Claude It took me exactly one day and the result was worth it Literally overnight the script made $2,542 The average win rate of the script is 68% Copytrade:...

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10,547 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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My OpenClaw agent woke me up at 3:47 AM with one message: “6 markets resolving in the next 90 minutes. Need approval for $12K.” I typed “yes” and went back to sleep. Woke up to +$43,800. For the past 9 days I’ve been running an agent that hunts timezone arbitrage on Polymarket. The setup is simple. I gave the agent access to global sources: • Japanese government RSS • EU parliament streams • Australian financial wires • Middle East flight trackers • Asian central bank announcements Then told it: “Alert me when a market resolving during US sleep hours (2–6 AM EST) shows >30% edge.” At 3:47 AM it detected 6 markets where the outcome was already clear in local sources — but Polymarket prices hadn’t moved yet. Copytrade → wallet: Examples: • Japan rate decision — official signals showing ~68%, market at 23¢ • EU emergency vote — livestream showing YES ahead, market 31¢ • Korea policy update — government RSS confirmed, market 19¢ • Australia trade deal — minister quote out, market 27¢ • UAE production cut — OPEC notes public, market 15¢ • Singapore regulation vote — parliament session live, market 22¢ Total capital deployed: $12,000 By 7:30 AM all six markets had resolved. Entries between 15¢–31¢ Payouts 95¢–$1 Final result: +$43,800 The edge is simple: Most Polymarket traders are in the US. But global events resolve while the US is asleep. By the time America wakes up — the markets are already closed.
0:29

My OpenClaw agent woke me up at 3:47 AM with one message: “6 markets resolving in the next 90 minutes. Need approval for $12K.” I typed “yes” and went back to sleep. Woke up to +$43,800. For the past 9 days I’ve been running an agent that hunts timezone arbitrage on Polymarket. The setup is simple. I gave the agent access to global sources: • Japanese government RSS • EU parliament streams • Australian financial wires • Middle East flight trackers • Asian central bank announcements Then told it: “Alert me when a market resolving during US sleep hours (2–6 AM EST) shows >30% edge.” At 3:47 AM it detected 6 markets where the outcome was already clear in local sources — but Polymarket prices hadn’t moved yet. Copytrade → wallet: Examples: • Japan rate decision — official signals showing ~68%, market at 23¢ • EU emergency vote — livestream showing YES ahead, market 31¢ • Korea policy update — government RSS confirmed, market 19¢ • Australia trade deal — minister quote out, market 27¢ • UAE production cut — OPEC notes public, market 15¢ • Singapore regulation vote — parliament session live, market 22¢ Total capital deployed: $12,000 By 7:30 AM all six markets had resolved. Entries between 15¢–31¢ Payouts 95¢–$1 Final result: +$43,800 The edge is simple: Most Polymarket traders are in the US. But global events resolve while the US is asleep. By the time America wakes up — the markets are already closed.

Philanthrop

67,835 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

my OpenClaw woke me up at 3:47 AM with one message: "found 6 markets resolving in next 90 minutes while US is asleep, need approval for $12K deployment" i typed "yes" and went back to sleep woke up to +$43,800 been running an agent that hunts timezone arbitrage for 9 days never thought it would actually wake me up the setup: gave OpenClaw access to global news feeds in different timezones: > Japanese government RSS > European parliament calendars > Australian financial wires > Middle East flight trackers > Asian central bank announcements told it: "find markets that will resolve during US sleep hours (2 AM - 6 AM EST), alert me if edge exceeds 30%" what happened at 3:47 AM: agent detected 6 markets resolving between 4 AM - 6 AM across different timezones all had same pattern: > crowd priced them like normal markets > but resolution would happen while americans sleep > official sources in those countries already showing signals the alert: > "Japan rate decision - 68% YES per BOJ leak, polymarket at 23¢" > "EU emergency vote - live stream shows YES winning, polymarket at 31¢" > "South Korea policy - government RSS confirmed, polymarket at 19¢" > "Australia trade deal - minister quoted 2 hours ago, polymarket at 27¢" > "UAE production cut - OPEC meeting notes public, polymarket at 15¢" > "Singapore regulation - parliament session live, polymarket at 22¢" - total edge detected: $43K potential - window: 90 minutes before -capital needed: $12,000 my phone buzzed i opened telegram half asleep saw "approve or miss" typed "yes" closed my eyes 7:30 AM - woke up to notifications: all 6 markets resolved during asian/european morning > US traders woke up to already-closed markets > my positions entered at 15¢-31¢ > all resolved at 95¢-100¢ profit breakdown: - Japan: $8,200 - EU: $6,900 - Korea: $11,400 - Australia: $7,100 - UAE: $5,800 - Singapore: $4,400 - total: +$43,800 checked the logs: agent had been watching these markets for 8-14 hours tracking official sources in real-time waiting for US to go to sleep then finding the moment when: > outcome is basically confirmed overseas > but US crowd hasn't updated prices > resolution is imminent the edge is stupid simple: polymarket is 70% american traders world events don't care about EST timezone while you sleep, markets resolve if you want to copy wallets running this 24/7: am i the only one making money while literally unconscious?
0:29

my OpenClaw woke me up at 3:47 AM with one message: "found 6 markets resolving in next 90 minutes while US is asleep, need approval for $12K deployment" i typed "yes" and went back to sleep woke up to +$43,800 been running an agent that hunts timezone arbitrage for 9 days never thought it would actually wake me up the setup: gave OpenClaw access to global news feeds in different timezones: > Japanese government RSS > European parliament calendars > Australian financial wires > Middle East flight trackers > Asian central bank announcements told it: "find markets that will resolve during US sleep hours (2 AM - 6 AM EST), alert me if edge exceeds 30%" what happened at 3:47 AM: agent detected 6 markets resolving between 4 AM - 6 AM across different timezones all had same pattern: > crowd priced them like normal markets > but resolution would happen while americans sleep > official sources in those countries already showing signals the alert: > "Japan rate decision - 68% YES per BOJ leak, polymarket at 23¢" > "EU emergency vote - live stream shows YES winning, polymarket at 31¢" > "South Korea policy - government RSS confirmed, polymarket at 19¢" > "Australia trade deal - minister quoted 2 hours ago, polymarket at 27¢" > "UAE production cut - OPEC meeting notes public, polymarket at 15¢" > "Singapore regulation - parliament session live, polymarket at 22¢" - total edge detected: $43K potential - window: 90 minutes before -capital needed: $12,000 my phone buzzed i opened telegram half asleep saw "approve or miss" typed "yes" closed my eyes 7:30 AM - woke up to notifications: all 6 markets resolved during asian/european morning > US traders woke up to already-closed markets > my positions entered at 15¢-31¢ > all resolved at 95¢-100¢ profit breakdown: - Japan: $8,200 - EU: $6,900 - Korea: $11,400 - Australia: $7,100 - UAE: $5,800 - Singapore: $4,400 - total: +$43,800 checked the logs: agent had been watching these markets for 8-14 hours tracking official sources in real-time waiting for US to go to sleep then finding the moment when: > outcome is basically confirmed overseas > but US crowd hasn't updated prices > resolution is imminent the edge is stupid simple: polymarket is 70% american traders world events don't care about EST timezone while you sleep, markets resolve if you want to copy wallets running this 24/7: am i the only one making money while literally unconscious?

ZER

3,082,998 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange
0:36

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange

VALIX

98,892 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

When I was 8 years old, growing up in Taipei, I called my aunt in San Francisco and asked: What is the best science and technology school in the world? She said MIT. I went on the internet, found it, and decided that was where I was going. All because of a Steven Spielberg movie about a little robot boy who wanted to find his mom. I grew up as an only child. What stayed with me from that movie was not just the technology. It was the possibility that one day, an artificial companion could understand how I felt. That was the first time I remember being moved by a technology that could change how humans experience reality. Years later, I did get to MIT. I studied AI before it became obvious. I became a machine learning engineer, built my first company, joined a $3.5B VC fund, left to build again, failed, started again, moved to New York alone, and built through one of the hardest crypto markets as a solo founder after the collapse of FTX. I kept going because I have always been drawn to technologies that change how humans understand the world. AI was the first version of that. Crypto and prediction markets are the next. I believe the future I am building toward is inevitable. The only question is whether I get to be one of the people who helps realize it. That future is a world where markets become information-first. The old model of trading was asset-first. It rewarded people with capital, financial education, institutional access, and better tools. But the next generation of markets will be shaped by information flow, narrative, attention, politics, culture, sentiment, and collective belief. Prediction markets make this shift obvious. They are one of the first asset classes where the value is informational, not purely financial in the traditional sense. Your edge does not have to come from technical analysis or a traditional finance background. Your edge can come from knowing something before it becomes consensus. From seeing reality shift before the market prices it in. Someone with firsthand knowledge of an unfolding event can have more alpha than an institution with a much bigger balance sheet. They turn belief into price. But price alone is not enough. Polymarket shows what the market thinks will happen. ARES is built to understand why the market is changing. We are building an information-first trading platform for prediction markets and other narrative-driven assets. One that does not just show traders what is moving, but helps them understand why odds are shifting, why narratives are forming, and why the future is moving in a certain direction. But the bigger vision is not just a better trading terminal. We want to turn every trade into an information object. Every position can become a piece of content. Every market view can become a signal. Every trader can build a reputation around conviction and accuracy. Most feeds rank information by engagement. Who got the most likes. Who already has the biggest audience. Markets allow us to rank information differently. How much are you willing to stake on what you believe? How often have you been right? That creates a fundamentally different kind of media feed. One powered by conviction, track record, and market incentives. One that becomes harder to fake. One that can help people understand not just what the market thinks will happen, but why reality is changing. I also believe prediction markets are one of the few markets where humans can still have a real edge over AI. AI knows what is already on the internet. But humans experience reality before it becomes data. We see things before they become headlines. We hear things before they become reports. We feel shifts before they become consensus. If those signals can be priced, organized, and made legible, then more people can gain access to financial opportunity, information agency, and power. That is what Ares is building toward. I spent years watching founders from the VC side of the table, always thinking: I wish that was me. Now it is. I talked about this journey and the thesis behind Ares in my conversation with Dmitry on Predict Time If you are building, trading, investing, or thinking deeply about prediction markets and information markets, I would love for you to watch it. And if you want to collaborate on what we are building, contribute to the vision, or join the team, we are always open to exceptional people across functions. DMs are open.
1:42:20

When I was 8 years old, growing up in Taipei, I called my aunt in San Francisco and asked: What is the best science and technology school in the world? She said MIT. I went on the internet, found it, and decided that was where I was going. All because of a Steven Spielberg movie about a little robot boy who wanted to find his mom. I grew up as an only child. What stayed with me from that movie was not just the technology. It was the possibility that one day, an artificial companion could understand how I felt. That was the first time I remember being moved by a technology that could change how humans experience reality. Years later, I did get to MIT. I studied AI before it became obvious. I became a machine learning engineer, built my first company, joined a $3.5B VC fund, left to build again, failed, started again, moved to New York alone, and built through one of the hardest crypto markets as a solo founder after the collapse of FTX. I kept going because I have always been drawn to technologies that change how humans understand the world. AI was the first version of that. Crypto and prediction markets are the next. I believe the future I am building toward is inevitable. The only question is whether I get to be one of the people who helps realize it. That future is a world where markets become information-first. The old model of trading was asset-first. It rewarded people with capital, financial education, institutional access, and better tools. But the next generation of markets will be shaped by information flow, narrative, attention, politics, culture, sentiment, and collective belief. Prediction markets make this shift obvious. They are one of the first asset classes where the value is informational, not purely financial in the traditional sense. Your edge does not have to come from technical analysis or a traditional finance background. Your edge can come from knowing something before it becomes consensus. From seeing reality shift before the market prices it in. Someone with firsthand knowledge of an unfolding event can have more alpha than an institution with a much bigger balance sheet. They turn belief into price. But price alone is not enough. Polymarket shows what the market thinks will happen. ARES is built to understand why the market is changing. We are building an information-first trading platform for prediction markets and other narrative-driven assets. One that does not just show traders what is moving, but helps them understand why odds are shifting, why narratives are forming, and why the future is moving in a certain direction. But the bigger vision is not just a better trading terminal. We want to turn every trade into an information object. Every position can become a piece of content. Every market view can become a signal. Every trader can build a reputation around conviction and accuracy. Most feeds rank information by engagement. Who got the most likes. Who already has the biggest audience. Markets allow us to rank information differently. How much are you willing to stake on what you believe? How often have you been right? That creates a fundamentally different kind of media feed. One powered by conviction, track record, and market incentives. One that becomes harder to fake. One that can help people understand not just what the market thinks will happen, but why reality is changing. I also believe prediction markets are one of the few markets where humans can still have a real edge over AI. AI knows what is already on the internet. But humans experience reality before it becomes data. We see things before they become headlines. We hear things before they become reports. We feel shifts before they become consensus. If those signals can be priced, organized, and made legible, then more people can gain access to financial opportunity, information agency, and power. That is what Ares is building toward. I spent years watching founders from the VC side of the table, always thinking: I wish that was me. Now it is. I talked about this journey and the thesis behind Ares in my conversation with Dmitry on Predict Time If you are building, trading, investing, or thinking deeply about prediction markets and information markets, I would love for you to watch it. And if you want to collaborate on what we are building, contribute to the vision, or join the team, we are always open to exceptional people across functions. DMs are open.

Morgan Lai

302,663 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

A trader reportedly turned $200 into nearly $700K in 48 hours with a Claude-powered system almost nobody understands yet. No indicators. No influencers. No guessing. The bot runs thousands of simulations before it even touches a trade. That’s why this market is changing fast. Most traders still stare at candles hoping for a setup… while others are already running probability models against the market before price even moves. Copy: One guy copied the framework and reportedly made ~$19K in a few weeks. The scary part? The edge is no longer prediction. It’s whoever processes probabilities faster than everyone else.
0:38

A trader reportedly turned $200 into nearly $700K in 48 hours with a Claude-powered system almost nobody understands yet. No indicators. No influencers. No guessing. The bot runs thousands of simulations before it even touches a trade. That’s why this market is changing fast. Most traders still stare at candles hoping for a setup… while others are already running probability models against the market before price even moves. Copy: One guy copied the framework and reportedly made ~$19K in a few weeks. The scary part? The edge is no longer prediction. It’s whoever processes probabilities faster than everyone else.

Phantom_Defi

16,391 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Polymarket vs Sportsbooks: Why Betting Apps are Toast On E248, Chamath and Friedberg discussed why prediction markets like Polymarket are killing traditional sportsbooks. Friedberg: “I think gambling generally, as we call it, should be decriminalized.” “And I don't like this state-by-state set up with gambling.” “I think we should have a federal regulatory body.” “This is not going away. People love to bet on stuff. This is part of sports, this is part of the culture.” Chamath: “ Look at Polymarket.” “Polymarket raised at, whatever it was, $1-2B at $9B. Then the next weekend they announced sports betting and now they're raising money 30 days later at, allegedly, $12-15B.” “And you can see, by the way, the way that DraftKings and FanDuel stock have reacted to this, those companies are toast.” Friedberg: “ The Polymarket model is the best model because it creates a market.” “And so as information flows in, that market will dynamically adjust and everyone will get a more fair price.” “Polymarket actually has the news before the news does.” “And this is one of the most powerful outputs of Polymarket, is they're actually getting a read on what's going on in the world before the media recognizes it, before the public recognizes it.” “When you put money up, it actually turns out that when people have incentives, that market will find the truth.”
1:04

Polymarket vs Sportsbooks: Why Betting Apps are Toast On E248, Chamath and Friedberg discussed why prediction markets like Polymarket are killing traditional sportsbooks. Friedberg: “I think gambling generally, as we call it, should be decriminalized.” “And I don't like this state-by-state set up with gambling.” “I think we should have a federal regulatory body.” “This is not going away. People love to bet on stuff. This is part of sports, this is part of the culture.” Chamath: “ Look at Polymarket.” “Polymarket raised at, whatever it was, $1-2B at $9B. Then the next weekend they announced sports betting and now they're raising money 30 days later at, allegedly, $12-15B.” “And you can see, by the way, the way that DraftKings and FanDuel stock have reacted to this, those companies are toast.” Friedberg: “ The Polymarket model is the best model because it creates a market.” “And so as information flows in, that market will dynamically adjust and everyone will get a more fair price.” “Polymarket actually has the news before the news does.” “And this is one of the most powerful outputs of Polymarket, is they're actually getting a read on what's going on in the world before the media recognizes it, before the public recognizes it.” “When you put money up, it actually turns out that when people have incentives, that market will find the truth.”

The All-In Podcast

347,566 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

In his first press conference, Warsh invoked Druck's "the best economist I know is the stock market" ethos. This is where I've connected with Kevin Warsh the most: on the damage done by the Fed's contamination of the critical information from market prices. Warsh said this at the presser: "Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers. But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we’ve said, then we’re taking the most important source of information and we’re being blind to it." He's been very consistent. Here's a snippet of the discussion I had with him at my MacroMinds conference in 2024.
4:20

In his first press conference, Warsh invoked Druck's "the best economist I know is the stock market" ethos. This is where I've connected with Kevin Warsh the most: on the damage done by the Fed's contamination of the critical information from market prices. Warsh said this at the presser: "Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers. But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we’ve said, then we’re taking the most important source of information and we’re being blind to it." He's been very consistent. Here's a snippet of the discussion I had with him at my MacroMinds conference in 2024.

Alpha_Ex_LLC

76,848 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $537,000 on Polymarket, buying markets for $14.45 His bot combines a hybrid of microstructure scalping, arbitrage, and hedging. It trades short Up/Down markets with limit orders and captures a consistent edge His strategy is simple: > Buys undervalued outcomes relative to his probability model > Builds arbitrage positions when it sees mispricing > Uses the opposite side as a hedge if the price moves against him His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he gets a 61% win rate and continuously grows his capital
0:38

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $537,000 on Polymarket, buying markets for $14.45 His bot combines a hybrid of microstructure scalping, arbitrage, and hedging. It trades short Up/Down markets with limit orders and captures a consistent edge His strategy is simple: > Buys undervalued outcomes relative to his probability model > Builds arbitrage positions when it sees mispricing > Uses the opposite side as a hedge if the price moves against him His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he gets a 61% win rate and continuously grows his capital

VALIX

28,920 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This trader built a trading bot with Claude and made $223,000 on Polymarket His bot makes 113 trades per hour and trades the microstructure of short crypto Up/Down markets with a median size of $2.12 His strategy is simple: > Trades outcomes at 98-99.9c when the result is already obvious, but there is still edge left on Polymarket > Buys cheap tails at 1-5c in case the underlying asset moves in the final seconds > Sometimes builds arbitrage positions when it sees edge This guy’s Polymarket account: With this strategy and clean execution, he generates consistent profit and keeps growing his deposit
0:38

This trader built a trading bot with Claude and made $223,000 on Polymarket His bot makes 113 trades per hour and trades the microstructure of short crypto Up/Down markets with a median size of $2.12 His strategy is simple: > Trades outcomes at 98-99.9c when the result is already obvious, but there is still edge left on Polymarket > Buys cheap tails at 1-5c in case the underlying asset moves in the final seconds > Sometimes builds arbitrage positions when it sees edge This guy’s Polymarket account: With this strategy and clean execution, he generates consistent profit and keeps growing his deposit

VALIX

40,563 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

this is legitimately brilliant trying it today because if this actually works the way he describes I'm completely changing how I trade on prediction markets like Polymarket i just gone through The Smart Ape 🔥's bot, he just spent weeks building a free tool that connects Polymarket odds to real-time news because he was tired of manually tracking everything. the insight here gathered is perfect: - top traders on Polymarket aren't running sophisticated bots. - they're just faster at spotting when the market price diverges from reality. - markets stay mispriced for HOURS after major news drops. 10-30% off sometimes he built polymarketnews(dot)xyz and it's actually insane: - AI scrapes every major publisher - flags bullish/bearish news with green/red markers directly on the price chart - updates in minutes. for instance, the Iran Khamenei market example, the news drops suggesting power consolidation, market doesn't react for hours, then crashes 40% I've been saying this forever, information asymmetry is the only real edge in prediction markets and he just made it for free absolute gold here i genuinely think this is one of those tools that becomes essential infrastructure for anyone serious about prediction markets. the edge isn't the bot it's the speed of information and he just leveled the playing field
0:48

this is legitimately brilliant trying it today because if this actually works the way he describes I'm completely changing how I trade on prediction markets like Polymarket i just gone through The Smart Ape 🔥's bot, he just spent weeks building a free tool that connects Polymarket odds to real-time news because he was tired of manually tracking everything. the insight here gathered is perfect: - top traders on Polymarket aren't running sophisticated bots. - they're just faster at spotting when the market price diverges from reality. - markets stay mispriced for HOURS after major news drops. 10-30% off sometimes he built polymarketnews(dot)xyz and it's actually insane: - AI scrapes every major publisher - flags bullish/bearish news with green/red markers directly on the price chart - updates in minutes. for instance, the Iran Khamenei market example, the news drops suggesting power consolidation, market doesn't react for hours, then crashes 40% I've been saying this forever, information asymmetry is the only real edge in prediction markets and he just made it for free absolute gold here i genuinely think this is one of those tools that becomes essential infrastructure for anyone serious about prediction markets. the edge isn't the bot it's the speed of information and he just leveled the playing field

arndxt

104,445 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Kevin Warsh's logic behind killing forward guidance: "Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers." "But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said - then we're taking the most important source of information, and we're being blind to it."
2:13

Kevin Warsh's logic behind killing forward guidance: "Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers." "But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said - then we're taking the most important source of information, and we're being blind to it."

Milk Road

365,804 görüntüleme • 23 gün önce

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!
0:24

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!

Benjamin Freeman

80,021 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

this ugly Polymarket terminal is what AI tradingactually looks like not a chatbot giving opinions a feed on one screen markets on another a bot waiting for the price to break before humans can react the edge is not prediction anymore. it is speed, routing, and probability updates running while traders are still reading the headline Polystrat did 4,200+ trades in its first month one position peaked at +376% other agents are watching thousands of markets at once news order books liquidity API fills market odds then they compare their probability against the price and execute. that is the shift. Polymarket used to be humans betting on events now agents are pricing the odds of other agents, models, IPOs and AI labs with real USDC on the line benchmarks can be gamed. a bad trade cannot.
2:17

this ugly Polymarket terminal is what AI tradingactually looks like not a chatbot giving opinions a feed on one screen markets on another a bot waiting for the price to break before humans can react the edge is not prediction anymore. it is speed, routing, and probability updates running while traders are still reading the headline Polystrat did 4,200+ trades in its first month one position peaked at +376% other agents are watching thousands of markets at once news order books liquidity API fills market odds then they compare their probability against the price and execute. that is the shift. Polymarket used to be humans betting on events now agents are pricing the odds of other agents, models, IPOs and AI labs with real USDC on the line benchmarks can be gamed. a bad trade cannot.

Myttle

13,886 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

On Polymarket this bot outperforms luck. In 3 weeks it turned -$82 into $67K. A single algorithm executed 524 trades in one 10-min window. → Account: When I first analyzed the trade history I thought the API was malfunctioning. You never see over 500 orders in one candle unless the system is broken. But I checked the timestamps. It was not a glitch. It is a flawless mathematical strategy. While most traders panic about where Bitcoin is going next, this bot plays a superior game. It buys the Yes side and the No side simultaneously. It sounds impossible to make money this way but here is the logic. During the first 5 minutes the market is confused and spreads are wide. It buys Yes at 47 cents. It buys No at 48 cents. It sells them back seconds later for a tiny profit. It acts as a Market Maker. It harvests the chaos. It does not care about the direction yet. It is just collecting the dust from your hesitation. But then the real move happens. Around minute five the Bitcoin trend becomes obvious on the spot market. The bot instantly changes behavior. It stops hedging. It dumps the loser immediately. Then it aggressively loads the winner. It starts buying massive clips. 120 shares here or 500 shares there. It chases the price all the way up to 85 cents or 93 cents. By the end it holds 7,000 shares of the winning outcome. The stats are ridiculous. It climbed out of debt to generate $67K pure profit. 95% win rate. Normal traders try to guess. This bot waits for certainty and then extracts maximum value. You need to stop staring at the charts and start tracking the flow. Is this the new reality of trading or just an overly aggressive script?
0:27

On Polymarket this bot outperforms luck. In 3 weeks it turned -$82 into $67K. A single algorithm executed 524 trades in one 10-min window. → Account: When I first analyzed the trade history I thought the API was malfunctioning. You never see over 500 orders in one candle unless the system is broken. But I checked the timestamps. It was not a glitch. It is a flawless mathematical strategy. While most traders panic about where Bitcoin is going next, this bot plays a superior game. It buys the Yes side and the No side simultaneously. It sounds impossible to make money this way but here is the logic. During the first 5 minutes the market is confused and spreads are wide. It buys Yes at 47 cents. It buys No at 48 cents. It sells them back seconds later for a tiny profit. It acts as a Market Maker. It harvests the chaos. It does not care about the direction yet. It is just collecting the dust from your hesitation. But then the real move happens. Around minute five the Bitcoin trend becomes obvious on the spot market. The bot instantly changes behavior. It stops hedging. It dumps the loser immediately. Then it aggressively loads the winner. It starts buying massive clips. 120 shares here or 500 shares there. It chases the price all the way up to 85 cents or 93 cents. By the end it holds 7,000 shares of the winning outcome. The stats are ridiculous. It climbed out of debt to generate $67K pure profit. 95% win rate. Normal traders try to guess. This bot waits for certainty and then extracts maximum value. You need to stop staring at the charts and start tracking the flow. Is this the new reality of trading or just an overly aggressive script?

Blaze

43,480 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🚨 THIS IS CRAZY — someone turned $6 into nearly $4 MILLION in one week. This is not fake. Not clickbait. If you trade on Polymarket, you have to see this. He started with roughly $6–$7 and somehow scaled it to ~$4M. No insider access. No Trump or Musk connections. Just a developer who wrote his own trading script. Profile - Copytrade - I went through his code and honestly — it surprised me. No massive datasets. No insane infrastructure. Nothing even close to rocket science. I spent about 4–6 hours breaking down the entire setup. His full strategy: 1. “Free money” via NO bets The bot targets near-impossible outcomes and stacks countless tiny, high-probability wins. Not gambling — more like systematic risk harvesting. 2. Logic arbitrage If event A clearly implies event B and the market hasn’t adjusted yet, the bot enters instantly. While you’re still reading the news, the edge is already gone. Humans can’t compete with that speed. 3. The real edge: sports & politics These markets are flooded with retail money and emotional reactions. The bot feeds on inefficiencies, clipping small profits from every mismatch. Scale is everything Tens of thousands of micro-trades every month. Each worth cents. Together, they compound into seven figures. Bottom line There’s a silent bot war already happening on Polymarket. Crypto markets are crowded, slow, and fee-heavy. Sports & politics are still chaotic — and chaos is where bots print money.
0:20

🚨 THIS IS CRAZY — someone turned $6 into nearly $4 MILLION in one week. This is not fake. Not clickbait. If you trade on Polymarket, you have to see this. He started with roughly $6–$7 and somehow scaled it to ~$4M. No insider access. No Trump or Musk connections. Just a developer who wrote his own trading script. Profile - Copytrade - I went through his code and honestly — it surprised me. No massive datasets. No insane infrastructure. Nothing even close to rocket science. I spent about 4–6 hours breaking down the entire setup. His full strategy: 1. “Free money” via NO bets The bot targets near-impossible outcomes and stacks countless tiny, high-probability wins. Not gambling — more like systematic risk harvesting. 2. Logic arbitrage If event A clearly implies event B and the market hasn’t adjusted yet, the bot enters instantly. While you’re still reading the news, the edge is already gone. Humans can’t compete with that speed. 3. The real edge: sports & politics These markets are flooded with retail money and emotional reactions. The bot feeds on inefficiencies, clipping small profits from every mismatch. Scale is everything Tens of thousands of micro-trades every month. Each worth cents. Together, they compound into seven figures. Bottom line There’s a silent bot war already happening on Polymarket. Crypto markets are crowded, slow, and fee-heavy. Sports & politics are still chaotic — and chaos is where bots print money.

Discover

537,116 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Prediction markets provide measurable value to market participants who use them to hedge and speculate on event outcomes as well as the public at large, which benefits from more reliable information about current events. The CFTC is committed to setting the gold standard for regulation of these markets. Watch more on PredictableShow:
1:10

Prediction markets provide measurable value to market participants who use them to hedge and speculate on event outcomes as well as the public at large, which benefits from more reliable information about current events. The CFTC is committed to setting the gold standard for regulation of these markets. Watch more on PredictableShow:

Mike Selig

46,976 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨 WAR HAS BEGUN — THE FINANCIAL RESET IS ADVANCING WITH OR WITHOUT YOU‼️ President Trump: Right now, the war is shaking the entire global financial system like never before. Markets are down, crypto is falling hard — it’s tough, and everybody sees it. So my message is simple: move your money out of the old banks and get into the QFS system. The process is easy — Activate your QFS account then backup your purchased assets. That’s it. The country's financial standing is already on the edge of a cliff, once we fall off that cliff, there's no going back. This is not just a drill; it's a seismic shift and you're right at the epicenter! Qfs ledger for safety. Quantum Financial System is the savior Qfs is a financial system created to bring us to safety. This isn’t just an American shift, it's as a global transition, designed to return financial power to the people, no matter where they live. 🏦 Over 95% of XRP holders have activated their accounts. For information and guidelines DM👇
21:04

🚨 WAR HAS BEGUN — THE FINANCIAL RESET IS ADVANCING WITH OR WITHOUT YOU‼️ President Trump: Right now, the war is shaking the entire global financial system like never before. Markets are down, crypto is falling hard — it’s tough, and everybody sees it. So my message is simple: move your money out of the old banks and get into the QFS system. The process is easy — Activate your QFS account then backup your purchased assets. That’s it. The country's financial standing is already on the edge of a cliff, once we fall off that cliff, there's no going back. This is not just a drill; it's a seismic shift and you're right at the epicenter! Qfs ledger for safety. Quantum Financial System is the savior Qfs is a financial system created to bring us to safety. This isn’t just an American shift, it's as a global transition, designed to return financial power to the people, no matter where they live. 🏦 Over 95% of XRP holders have activated their accounts. For information and guidelines DM👇

John F. Kennedy Jr Q

15,837 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

A TRADER USED CLAUDE FABLE 5 TO TURN AN $11,000 LOSS INTO $300,000 IN FIVE DAYS AND THEN THE GOVERNMENT PULLED THE MODEL Fable 5 wasn't predicting prices. It was computing the full probability surface of a market, every outcome weighted, faster than the market could correct itself. One of those bets paid x205. The model is gone. The algorithm it wrote is still running on Polymarket right now.
0:46

A TRADER USED CLAUDE FABLE 5 TO TURN AN $11,000 LOSS INTO $300,000 IN FIVE DAYS AND THEN THE GOVERNMENT PULLED THE MODEL Fable 5 wasn't predicting prices. It was computing the full probability surface of a market, every outcome weighted, faster than the market could correct itself. One of those bets paid x205. The model is gone. The algorithm it wrote is still running on Polymarket right now.

0xMarioNawfal

114,084 görüntüleme • 26 gün önce

A Russian developer just figured out how to learn anything 10x faster. He saved 1,460 hours using 3 tools most people already have. NotebookLM + Gemini + Obsidian. Here is how it works. You dump any source into the system. YouTube videos. Articles. Courses. Podcasts. All of it. The AI strips out every duplicate concept across all your sources. Then it keeps only the information you do not know yet. Think about what that means. 20 YouTube videos on the same topic each one repeating the same 20% of information you already know. This system removes that 80% of noise automatically. What used to take a month of learning compresses into 15 minutes of pure signal. No repetition. No fluff. Just the exact knowledge gap between where you are and where you want to be. This is not a productivity hack. This is a completely different way of consuming information. The people who build this system this week are going to compound their knowledge at a rate that is genuinely unfair compared to everyone still watching the same tutorial for the third time. Full credit to roger_zp@hotmail.com on YouTube. Go watch his breakdown. Then build the system today.
13:20

A Russian developer just figured out how to learn anything 10x faster. He saved 1,460 hours using 3 tools most people already have. NotebookLM + Gemini + Obsidian. Here is how it works. You dump any source into the system. YouTube videos. Articles. Courses. Podcasts. All of it. The AI strips out every duplicate concept across all your sources. Then it keeps only the information you do not know yet. Think about what that means. 20 YouTube videos on the same topic each one repeating the same 20% of information you already know. This system removes that 80% of noise automatically. What used to take a month of learning compresses into 15 minutes of pure signal. No repetition. No fluff. Just the exact knowledge gap between where you are and where you want to be. This is not a productivity hack. This is a completely different way of consuming information. The people who build this system this week are going to compound their knowledge at a rate that is genuinely unfair compared to everyone still watching the same tutorial for the third time. Full credit to [email protected] on YouTube. Go watch his breakdown. Then build the system today.

CyrilXBT

49,042 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

I gave Claude full access to my Polymarket account and $100. Just one rule. Grow this by morning or I unplug you. Current wallet balance: +$4,865.36 And it didn't try to predict Bitcoin even ONCE. Here's what it did and why arb is smarter than 99% of traders: It went hunting for broken math. On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. the other ends at zero. Always. no middle ground. But the orderbook is sloppy and the two sides trade like strangers. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents locked, and it does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned every crypto market at once, hundreds of windows a second, never tired, never bored. The instant two sides summed under a dollar it grabbed both legs before the gap closed. Not one prediction the whole night. The honest catch is execution. These gaps live for seconds and fees eat the thin ones. A human can watch one market. A bot watches all of them and pounces the moment the math breaks. This is why vibe coding an arbitrage terminal is the fastest way to profit on prediction markets. Leaving the full guide below. Paste it into your own prompt and let see what happens. Bookmark while it's still public.
0:25

I gave Claude full access to my Polymarket account and $100. Just one rule. Grow this by morning or I unplug you. Current wallet balance: +$4,865.36 And it didn't try to predict Bitcoin even ONCE. Here's what it did and why arb is smarter than 99% of traders: It went hunting for broken math. On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. the other ends at zero. Always. no middle ground. But the orderbook is sloppy and the two sides trade like strangers. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents locked, and it does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned every crypto market at once, hundreds of windows a second, never tired, never bored. The instant two sides summed under a dollar it grabbed both legs before the gap closed. Not one prediction the whole night. The honest catch is execution. These gaps live for seconds and fees eat the thin ones. A human can watch one market. A bot watches all of them and pounces the moment the math breaks. This is why vibe coding an arbitrage terminal is the fastest way to profit on prediction markets. Leaving the full guide below. Paste it into your own prompt and let see what happens. Bookmark while it's still public.

Oracle Boar

118,928 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce