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my statistics professor makes $41,000 a year teaching probability theory last month my neighbor called police because he thought i hacked something i hadn't hacked anything. i just applied what my professor teaches in class to actual markets. same math. different zip code my professor draws Markov Chain diagrams...

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Livsun

6,349 subscribers

10,034 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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4 Comments

nOnEpcbl.'s profile picture
nOnEpcbl.4 months ago

don't show this to your professor or he farm the entire market

Daily Story's profile picture
Daily Story4 months ago

It's wild how theory meets practice!

elune's profile picture
elune4 months ago

markov chains over rsi quietly

Levi's profile picture
Levi4 months ago

ok but 1-step or HMM?

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quants don't predict markets. they stopped trying years ago retail is still asking "where is price going?" - quants switched to a different question entirely "given the current state, what's the probability distribution of outcomes" that's not a semantics game. it changes the math entirely stochastic processes model how a system evolves probabilistically - not picking a direction, mapping where each path leads and how likely it is ornstein-uhlenbeck does this for mean reversion: drift rate back to equilibrium, variance around that path same price data everybody has. different equation math is a century old, free in every applied probability textbook Bookmark and learn this before it gone you've been drawing trend lines while they ran probability distributions on same numbers it was never about data it was the question you were taught to ask
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quants don't predict markets. they stopped trying years ago retail is still asking "where is price going?" - quants switched to a different question entirely "given the current state, what's the probability distribution of outcomes" that's not a semantics game. it changes the math entirely stochastic processes model how a system evolves probabilistically - not picking a direction, mapping where each path leads and how likely it is ornstein-uhlenbeck does this for mean reversion: drift rate back to equilibrium, variance around that path same price data everybody has. different equation math is a century old, free in every applied probability textbook Bookmark and learn this before it gone you've been drawing trend lines while they ran probability distributions on same numbers it was never about data it was the question you were taught to ask

Livsun

13,367 views • 3 months ago

renaissance technologies hasn't had a losing year since 1988 not because they're smarter or have better data they're asking a completely different question than everyone else while retail asks "will it go up?" quant desks ask something else entirely which state is the market in right now, and with what probability does it transition to the next tool for that: markov chains markets cycle through states - trending, ranging, volatile, reversing each transition has a historical probability you can calculate trending -> stays trending: 48% trending -> ranging: 34% trending -> reversing: 18% you don't pick direction. you calculate expected value across every possible transition enter only when the math is positive that's it. that's the entire edge the framework is 119 years old - andrei markov published it in 1906 it's in every statistics textbook on earth Bookmark it or lose last chance to be quant nobody in your trading group ever mentioned it
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renaissance technologies hasn't had a losing year since 1988 not because they're smarter or have better data they're asking a completely different question than everyone else while retail asks "will it go up?" quant desks ask something else entirely which state is the market in right now, and with what probability does it transition to the next tool for that: markov chains markets cycle through states - trending, ranging, volatile, reversing each transition has a historical probability you can calculate trending -> stays trending: 48% trending -> ranging: 34% trending -> reversing: 18% you don't pick direction. you calculate expected value across every possible transition enter only when the math is positive that's it. that's the entire edge the framework is 119 years old - andrei markov published it in 1906 it's in every statistics textbook on earth Bookmark it or lose last chance to be quant nobody in your trading group ever mentioned it

Livsun

51,500 views • 4 months ago

My friend applied to 200 tech jobs in two years. No CS degree. No callbacks. Last month Anthropic offered him $750,000. All because of one Stanford lecture. Free on YouTube. One hour. A professor explains how ChatGPT actually works. Not the Twitter version. The real one. He watched it in bed. Paused it eleven times. After that hour he told me something I didn't believe. "It's embarrassingly simple." Three days later he applied to Anthropic. Every single question they asked him, he knew from that video.
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Raytar

1,184,128 views • 3 months ago

MIT has been teaching this publicly for 50 years. retail traders still draw trendlines andrei markov published the framework in 1906. hedge funds found it in the 70s built billion-dollar operations around it, never told retail it existed markets aren't random - they're state machines trending, ranging, reversing. each state has a fixed historical probability of shifting to the next you build a transition matrix from real price data: trending -> stays trending: 68% trending -> flips to range: 21% trending -> reverses: 11% now you're not predicting direction. you're entering on 68% historical completion that's not a signal, that's conditional probability compounding every single trade math is free, data is free, implementation is ~200 lines of python what's not free: knowing this framework exists while everyone around you draws support levels and hopes renaissance has run this since 1988. paper was always public edge was never secret. just never pointed out
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Livsun

13,963 views • 4 months ago

Qullamaggie on The Big Money is Made in Holding Winners “Exactly. Big money is made in the sitting. I absolutely agree. All my biggest winners this year, SE, I was in this thing for what? 4 months? 3 months? Went up 160%. It didn't go up 160% in a day. No, it took 3 months. FSLY, another one. When we bought it on earnings here in the 30s, this thing went up 250%. It didn't go up 250% in a day, it took a couple of months. Now obviously I didn't trade this perfectly, but you know, it's all about catching big moves and catching the big juicy part in the middle. And you're gonna be financially independent in no time. On the big winners, I use the 10 and 20 day moving averages as trailing stops. That’s the mistake I made on NVAX. I really didn't wait for it to close below the 10 day. Like I just randomly sold it because I thought it was extended. Like, ah, it's not going to go up much more. I sold it like on this day here, right? It never even touched the 10 day. It went sideways for like a week. Then went up another 70%. If I had just had used the simple, close below the 10-day, which is what I usually use, the 10 and 20-day moving averages, my trailing stops, I would have made another, I don't know, a lot of money on it. Hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, you know, sometimes it's hard to stick to rules. It's hard. One thing I don't have a hard time with is stop losses, but sometimes, like I said before, holding a big winner is a really really hard thing to do sometimes. It really is. It's just unbelievably hard.”
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Qullamaggie on The Big Money is Made in Holding Winners “Exactly. Big money is made in the sitting. I absolutely agree. All my biggest winners this year, SE, I was in this thing for what? 4 months? 3 months? Went up 160%. It didn't go up 160% in a day. No, it took 3 months. FSLY, another one. When we bought it on earnings here in the 30s, this thing went up 250%. It didn't go up 250% in a day, it took a couple of months. Now obviously I didn't trade this perfectly, but you know, it's all about catching big moves and catching the big juicy part in the middle. And you're gonna be financially independent in no time. On the big winners, I use the 10 and 20 day moving averages as trailing stops. That’s the mistake I made on NVAX. I really didn't wait for it to close below the 10 day. Like I just randomly sold it because I thought it was extended. Like, ah, it's not going to go up much more. I sold it like on this day here, right? It never even touched the 10 day. It went sideways for like a week. Then went up another 70%. If I had just had used the simple, close below the 10-day, which is what I usually use, the 10 and 20-day moving averages, my trailing stops, I would have made another, I don't know, a lot of money on it. Hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, you know, sometimes it's hard to stick to rules. It's hard. One thing I don't have a hard time with is stop losses, but sometimes, like I said before, holding a big winner is a really really hard thing to do sometimes. It really is. It's just unbelievably hard.”

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delost

112,271 views • 3 months ago

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Fireside Alpha

12,975 views • 1 month ago

a quant at a prop firm showed me a 5x5 grid on a napkin said: > this is our entire edge. we don't predict price. we predict which box the market is in and where that box historically leads i didn't understand it for weeks. then it clicked never looked at a chart the same way since grid is called a Markov Chain transition matrix. the math is from 1906, it's in every probability textbook on earth and hedge funds use it because it asks a completely different question than retail traders ever ask retail: will this go up or down quant: what state is this market in, and where does this state typically go every market lives in one of maybe 5-6 states at any given moment tight range, volatility compression, trending with momentum, post-spike reversal, pre-breakout coil not random labels - clusters you identify from actual data using volatility, volume, and momentum readings stacked together once you have the states, you build the matrix: P(state 2 -> state 4) = 73% P(state 4 -> state 1) = 61% P(state 1 -> state 3) = 68% each cell is a historical probability. now when the market is in state 2, you're not guessing you're betting on 73% historical completion. you size it with Kelly. you take the trade when the math says to, not when it feels right i built this on BTC using 2 years of 4-hour data. identified 5 states one i labeled "volatility compression below 20-day mean for 6+ consecutive candles" transitioned to a directional move above 1.8 ATR in 71% of cases average reward/risk on those trades: 5.4 that's not prediction. that's reading a probability table the market keeps filling in for you every single day the part that should bother you: the data to build this is free. the framework is in any quant textbook python to implement it is maybe 200 lines what Renaissance Technologies has that you don't isn't secret data or proprietary signals it's this framework applied to higher-resolution data with more sophisticated state definitions you're not missing information you're asking the wrong question every single time you open a chart
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a quant at a prop firm showed me a 5x5 grid on a napkin said: > this is our entire edge. we don't predict price. we predict which box the market is in and where that box historically leads i didn't understand it for weeks. then it clicked never looked at a chart the same way since grid is called a Markov Chain transition matrix. the math is from 1906, it's in every probability textbook on earth and hedge funds use it because it asks a completely different question than retail traders ever ask retail: will this go up or down quant: what state is this market in, and where does this state typically go every market lives in one of maybe 5-6 states at any given moment tight range, volatility compression, trending with momentum, post-spike reversal, pre-breakout coil not random labels - clusters you identify from actual data using volatility, volume, and momentum readings stacked together once you have the states, you build the matrix: P(state 2 -> state 4) = 73% P(state 4 -> state 1) = 61% P(state 1 -> state 3) = 68% each cell is a historical probability. now when the market is in state 2, you're not guessing you're betting on 73% historical completion. you size it with Kelly. you take the trade when the math says to, not when it feels right i built this on BTC using 2 years of 4-hour data. identified 5 states one i labeled "volatility compression below 20-day mean for 6+ consecutive candles" transitioned to a directional move above 1.8 ATR in 71% of cases average reward/risk on those trades: 5.4 that's not prediction. that's reading a probability table the market keeps filling in for you every single day the part that should bother you: the data to build this is free. the framework is in any quant textbook python to implement it is maybe 200 lines what Renaissance Technologies has that you don't isn't secret data or proprietary signals it's this framework applied to higher-resolution data with more sophisticated state definitions you're not missing information you're asking the wrong question every single time you open a chart

Livsun

189,343 views • 4 months ago

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I've never written a single line of code in my life. Private surgical clinic paid me to put their entire staff on AI - secretary, two surgeons, a nurse, an accountant, a marketer, a sales rep. One Grok Bot boss routing all of it, straight through Telegram. My first real commercial build. I still don't fully believe someone's paying me for this. Thank you to Elon and the whole SpaceX/xAI team for Grok Bot - this is exactly why. I'm not a programmer, I never studied the technical side of anything, and it was still simple enough for me to learn fast and ship something a real business is now running on. It's still beta. I know exactly what's rough in it - I wrote it all down. Next up: original characters for every role instead of the placeholder set, and tightening the rest. Full build is in the article below - every agent, every permission line, how it actually escalates. Read it before you assume this needs an engineer.

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23,571 views • 1 month ago

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33,982 views • 2 months ago

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11,919 views • 26 days ago

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Paul George says he bought a Ferrari on eBay for $120,000 after signing his first big contract “I just made my deal, and I was still trying to be cheap at the same time. This is how cheap I was though. My ass went on eBay to look up Ferraris” “I bought a Ferrari F430, all black. It was low mileage. The dude was actually a cool. He owned a ton of cars. He had a huge car collection. He was like, ‘I'll sell it to you.’ He was a fan, so I got it for the low” “I loved it because it was that thing that symbolized you made it. For me as a kid, it was a Ferrari. I don't care if I got $100,000 in the bank. If I got a Ferrari in the garage, I'm lit. I made it.” “Ironic enough, every deal that I signed, I went and got a different Ferrari. I think I ended up paying like $120,000. I met him. I introduced him to my financial partner and let them do the transaction”

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378,289 views • 2 months ago

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ONE OF CLAUDE'S DEVELOPERS MESSAGED ME "YOU'RE USING AI AT 5%. LET ME SHOW YOU HOW WE ACTUALLY WORK WITH IT" we talked for 40 minutes. he shared his screen and showed me his obsidian. i expected some complex setup with code it was a folder. a regular folder with text files but when he opened the graph - i went silent. thousands of dots. thousands of lines. everything connected. everything alive. he says "this is my brain after 4 months. i didn't link a single note manually. claude did all of it" then he showed me something i still haven't recovered from he typed to claude "where am i contradicting myself?" claude thought for about 10 seconds and returned 4 pairs of notes where he wrote one thing and did another. with dates. quoting his own words back at him he laughed and said "see? no friend will ever tell you this. but this thing will and it won't get offended" i asked him to help me set it up. he walked me through it. took two evenings now my vault is on the video. it's still small. but it already knows my projects, my goals, my weak spots. and every morning it writes me a short brief: what changed, where i'm stuck, what i forgot the scariest part - i can't imagine working without it anymore. and just a month ago i thought this was too complicated for me i was wrong full guide on how to build this from scratch - article attached i test things like this on myself and share the results. follow kai if you want to see what's next

kai

51,954 views • 2 months ago

Every gambler who ever muttered "I'm due for a win" was one theorem away from understanding why he was about to lose. an Oxford professor teaches that exact theorem for free. Vegas does not mind. the people who need these 50 minutes most are the ones feeding the slot machines instead. his subject is conditional probability. the wheel has no memory. ten reds in a row change nothing. the next spin carries the same edge against you, every single time. that is the whole casino in one idea. and the post above argues the whole market runs on it too. Crawford teaches it to Oxford first-years. no system. no strategy. no hot streak. just the proof that the house edge does not care what already happened. skip to conditional probability. watch him kill "I'm due" in one line. every bet independent, every one bleeding the same tiny percentage, the crowd paying it a million times over. no memory. no streaks. one edge, forever. a trader I know says the day he understood independence was the day he stopped revenge trading. the math has been free the whole time. the house is betting you never learn it.
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Every gambler who ever muttered "I'm due for a win" was one theorem away from understanding why he was about to lose. an Oxford professor teaches that exact theorem for free. Vegas does not mind. the people who need these 50 minutes most are the ones feeding the slot machines instead. his subject is conditional probability. the wheel has no memory. ten reds in a row change nothing. the next spin carries the same edge against you, every single time. that is the whole casino in one idea. and the post above argues the whole market runs on it too. Crawford teaches it to Oxford first-years. no system. no strategy. no hot streak. just the proof that the house edge does not care what already happened. skip to conditional probability. watch him kill "I'm due" in one line. every bet independent, every one bleeding the same tiny percentage, the crowd paying it a million times over. no memory. no streaks. one edge, forever. a trader I know says the day he understood independence was the day he stopped revenge trading. the math has been free the whole time. the house is betting you never learn it.

Rossst.03

10,472 views • 2 months ago

Over a decade ago, a math professor in Chennai opened his first lecture with the simplest idea in all of math, and it is the exact thing every prediction market runs on today. NPTEL filmed it. it has been free ever since. 759,000 people have watched it, almost none of them trade. his point: before probability, before any odds, there are just sets. a bag of everything that can happen, and the slice you are betting on. every trader pricing a market is doing set theory without knowing the name for it. no Wall Street badge, no trading desk. just a professor at a green board building the whole machine from nothing. skip to the board in the first ten minutes. he takes union, intersection, and the outcomes you throw away, and turns them into the rules every payoff has to obey, in notation a schoolkid can follow. no slides. no app. one green board and a piece of chalk. a quant i know rewatched this exact lecture before rebuilding his risk model. said he had been skipping the part that actually matters. I put the practical aspects of this lecture into practice and developed a strategy that generates income, the results surprised me. 27 days. $200 → $25,400. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. I'm giving away the full configuration of my bot for free. 24 hours only. Here's how: >Comment "SEND" >Like and Follow me I'll send the complete setup in your DMs.
52:13

Over a decade ago, a math professor in Chennai opened his first lecture with the simplest idea in all of math, and it is the exact thing every prediction market runs on today. NPTEL filmed it. it has been free ever since. 759,000 people have watched it, almost none of them trade. his point: before probability, before any odds, there are just sets. a bag of everything that can happen, and the slice you are betting on. every trader pricing a market is doing set theory without knowing the name for it. no Wall Street badge, no trading desk. just a professor at a green board building the whole machine from nothing. skip to the board in the first ten minutes. he takes union, intersection, and the outcomes you throw away, and turns them into the rules every payoff has to obey, in notation a schoolkid can follow. no slides. no app. one green board and a piece of chalk. a quant i know rewatched this exact lecture before rebuilding his risk model. said he had been skipping the part that actually matters. I put the practical aspects of this lecture into practice and developed a strategy that generates income, the results surprised me. 27 days. $200 → $25,400. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. I'm giving away the full configuration of my bot for free. 24 hours only. Here's how: >Comment "SEND" >Like and Follow me I'll send the complete setup in your DMs.

Voltex

28,331 views • 1 month ago

Asked Alex Caruso about his shoe block: "I've never been in that situation before. And, I don't know, it came to me. I just thought I was gonna block it, and I honestly don't know what I thought the call would be. I didn't know it was going to be a goaltending and a tech. If I would've known that, I probably wouldn't have done it because it's three points. It's an automatic bucket, and he didn't even put the ball above the rim. As soon as I had my shoe in my hand, it crept in my mind to use it. Not like in a malicious way, but like 'Let me try to make a play to stop the ball.' It's just one of those weird NBA plays that probably won't happen for like another 10 years."
0:54

Asked Alex Caruso about his shoe block: "I've never been in that situation before. And, I don't know, it came to me. I just thought I was gonna block it, and I honestly don't know what I thought the call would be. I didn't know it was going to be a goaltending and a tech. If I would've known that, I probably wouldn't have done it because it's three points. It's an automatic bucket, and he didn't even put the ball above the rim. As soon as I had my shoe in my hand, it crept in my mind to use it. Not like in a malicious way, but like 'Let me try to make a play to stop the ball.' It's just one of those weird NBA plays that probably won't happen for like another 10 years."

Justin Martinez

591,222 views • 6 months ago

Jannik Sinner on winning Wimbledon last year 🌱❤️ 🦊: “If I'm very honest with you, when I was a little kid, I never would have thought to be in the position. Not even to play here in Wimbledon, because it was so, so far, and me coming from a very small town, it's not realistic to think that I would play just in Wimbledon, and now having at least 1 trophy and seeing my name here next to all these incredible names. “I do remember the last point, how it was, and seeing also my family right there, my whole team, my brother...it has been amazing. It is definitely something I would love to feel again, I'm not lying, but in the same time, if it's not gonna happen, I did it once, and I do remember forever, you know, for the rest of my life, and it is truly special having my name next to all the other names here.” 🎥 stansportau
0:57

Jannik Sinner on winning Wimbledon last year 🌱❤️ 🦊: “If I'm very honest with you, when I was a little kid, I never would have thought to be in the position. Not even to play here in Wimbledon, because it was so, so far, and me coming from a very small town, it's not realistic to think that I would play just in Wimbledon, and now having at least 1 trophy and seeing my name here next to all these incredible names. “I do remember the last point, how it was, and seeing also my family right there, my whole team, my brother...it has been amazing. It is definitely something I would love to feel again, I'm not lying, but in the same time, if it's not gonna happen, I did it once, and I do remember forever, you know, for the rest of my life, and it is truly special having my name next to all the other names here.” 🎥 stansportau

jannik sinner files

31,708 views • 3 months ago