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my statistics professor makes $41,000 a year teaching probability theory last month my neighbor called police because he thought i hacked something i hadn't hacked anything. i just applied what my professor teaches in class to actual markets. same math. different zip code my professor draws Markov Chain diagrams...

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Livsun

6,349 subscribers

10,034 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 4

Фото профиля nOnEpcbl.
nOnEpcbl.4 месяцев назад

don't show this to your professor or he farm the entire market

Фото профиля Daily Story
Daily Story4 месяцев назад

It's wild how theory meets practice!

Фото профиля elune
elune4 месяцев назад

markov chains over rsi quietly

Фото профиля Levi
Levi4 месяцев назад

ok but 1-step or HMM?

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quants don't predict markets. they stopped trying years ago retail is still asking "where is price going?" - quants switched to a different question entirely "given the current state, what's the probability distribution of outcomes" that's not a semantics game. it changes the math entirely stochastic processes model how a system evolves probabilistically - not picking a direction, mapping where each path leads and how likely it is ornstein-uhlenbeck does this for mean reversion: drift rate back to equilibrium, variance around that path same price data everybody has. different equation math is a century old, free in every applied probability textbook Bookmark and learn this before it gone you've been drawing trend lines while they ran probability distributions on same numbers it was never about data it was the question you were taught to ask
1:27

quants don't predict markets. they stopped trying years ago retail is still asking "where is price going?" - quants switched to a different question entirely "given the current state, what's the probability distribution of outcomes" that's not a semantics game. it changes the math entirely stochastic processes model how a system evolves probabilistically - not picking a direction, mapping where each path leads and how likely it is ornstein-uhlenbeck does this for mean reversion: drift rate back to equilibrium, variance around that path same price data everybody has. different equation math is a century old, free in every applied probability textbook Bookmark and learn this before it gone you've been drawing trend lines while they ran probability distributions on same numbers it was never about data it was the question you were taught to ask

Livsun

13,367 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

renaissance technologies hasn't had a losing year since 1988 not because they're smarter or have better data they're asking a completely different question than everyone else while retail asks "will it go up?" quant desks ask something else entirely which state is the market in right now, and with what probability does it transition to the next tool for that: markov chains markets cycle through states - trending, ranging, volatile, reversing each transition has a historical probability you can calculate trending -> stays trending: 48% trending -> ranging: 34% trending -> reversing: 18% you don't pick direction. you calculate expected value across every possible transition enter only when the math is positive that's it. that's the entire edge the framework is 119 years old - andrei markov published it in 1906 it's in every statistics textbook on earth Bookmark it or lose last chance to be quant nobody in your trading group ever mentioned it
2:02

renaissance technologies hasn't had a losing year since 1988 not because they're smarter or have better data they're asking a completely different question than everyone else while retail asks "will it go up?" quant desks ask something else entirely which state is the market in right now, and with what probability does it transition to the next tool for that: markov chains markets cycle through states - trending, ranging, volatile, reversing each transition has a historical probability you can calculate trending -> stays trending: 48% trending -> ranging: 34% trending -> reversing: 18% you don't pick direction. you calculate expected value across every possible transition enter only when the math is positive that's it. that's the entire edge the framework is 119 years old - andrei markov published it in 1906 it's in every statistics textbook on earth Bookmark it or lose last chance to be quant nobody in your trading group ever mentioned it

Livsun

51,500 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

My friend applied to 200 tech jobs in two years. No CS degree. No callbacks. Last month Anthropic offered him $750,000. All because of one Stanford lecture. Free on YouTube. One hour. A professor explains how ChatGPT actually works. Not the Twitter version. The real one. He watched it in bed. Paused it eleven times. After that hour he told me something I didn't believe. "It's embarrassingly simple." Three days later he applied to Anthropic. Every single question they asked him, he knew from that video.
1:43:32

My friend applied to 200 tech jobs in two years. No CS degree. No callbacks. Last month Anthropic offered him $750,000. All because of one Stanford lecture. Free on YouTube. One hour. A professor explains how ChatGPT actually works. Not the Twitter version. The real one. He watched it in bed. Paused it eleven times. After that hour he told me something I didn't believe. "It's embarrassingly simple." Three days later he applied to Anthropic. Every single question they asked him, he knew from that video.

Raytar

1,184,128 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

MIT has been teaching this publicly for 50 years. retail traders still draw trendlines andrei markov published the framework in 1906. hedge funds found it in the 70s built billion-dollar operations around it, never told retail it existed markets aren't random - they're state machines trending, ranging, reversing. each state has a fixed historical probability of shifting to the next you build a transition matrix from real price data: trending -> stays trending: 68% trending -> flips to range: 21% trending -> reverses: 11% now you're not predicting direction. you're entering on 68% historical completion that's not a signal, that's conditional probability compounding every single trade math is free, data is free, implementation is ~200 lines of python what's not free: knowing this framework exists while everyone around you draws support levels and hopes renaissance has run this since 1988. paper was always public edge was never secret. just never pointed out
52:24

MIT has been teaching this publicly for 50 years. retail traders still draw trendlines andrei markov published the framework in 1906. hedge funds found it in the 70s built billion-dollar operations around it, never told retail it existed markets aren't random - they're state machines trending, ranging, reversing. each state has a fixed historical probability of shifting to the next you build a transition matrix from real price data: trending -> stays trending: 68% trending -> flips to range: 21% trending -> reverses: 11% now you're not predicting direction. you're entering on 68% historical completion that's not a signal, that's conditional probability compounding every single trade math is free, data is free, implementation is ~200 lines of python what's not free: knowing this framework exists while everyone around you draws support levels and hopes renaissance has run this since 1988. paper was always public edge was never secret. just never pointed out

Livsun

13,963 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Qullamaggie on The Big Money is Made in Holding Winners “Exactly. Big money is made in the sitting. I absolutely agree. All my biggest winners this year, SE, I was in this thing for what? 4 months? 3 months? Went up 160%. It didn't go up 160% in a day. No, it took 3 months. FSLY, another one. When we bought it on earnings here in the 30s, this thing went up 250%. It didn't go up 250% in a day, it took a couple of months. Now obviously I didn't trade this perfectly, but you know, it's all about catching big moves and catching the big juicy part in the middle. And you're gonna be financially independent in no time. On the big winners, I use the 10 and 20 day moving averages as trailing stops. That’s the mistake I made on NVAX. I really didn't wait for it to close below the 10 day. Like I just randomly sold it because I thought it was extended. Like, ah, it's not going to go up much more. I sold it like on this day here, right? It never even touched the 10 day. It went sideways for like a week. Then went up another 70%. If I had just had used the simple, close below the 10-day, which is what I usually use, the 10 and 20-day moving averages, my trailing stops, I would have made another, I don't know, a lot of money on it. Hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, you know, sometimes it's hard to stick to rules. It's hard. One thing I don't have a hard time with is stop losses, but sometimes, like I said before, holding a big winner is a really really hard thing to do sometimes. It really is. It's just unbelievably hard.”
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Qullamaggie on The Big Money is Made in Holding Winners “Exactly. Big money is made in the sitting. I absolutely agree. All my biggest winners this year, SE, I was in this thing for what? 4 months? 3 months? Went up 160%. It didn't go up 160% in a day. No, it took 3 months. FSLY, another one. When we bought it on earnings here in the 30s, this thing went up 250%. It didn't go up 250% in a day, it took a couple of months. Now obviously I didn't trade this perfectly, but you know, it's all about catching big moves and catching the big juicy part in the middle. And you're gonna be financially independent in no time. On the big winners, I use the 10 and 20 day moving averages as trailing stops. That’s the mistake I made on NVAX. I really didn't wait for it to close below the 10 day. Like I just randomly sold it because I thought it was extended. Like, ah, it's not going to go up much more. I sold it like on this day here, right? It never even touched the 10 day. It went sideways for like a week. Then went up another 70%. If I had just had used the simple, close below the 10-day, which is what I usually use, the 10 and 20-day moving averages, my trailing stops, I would have made another, I don't know, a lot of money on it. Hundreds of thousands of dollars. So, you know, sometimes it's hard to stick to rules. It's hard. One thing I don't have a hard time with is stop losses, but sometimes, like I said before, holding a big winner is a really really hard thing to do sometimes. It really is. It's just unbelievably hard.”

Lone

15,696 просмотров • 1 год назад

a quant who started as a technical trader explained what changed everything for him he stopped trying to predict where price goes he started measuring the probability of each market state and betting only when the math was asymmetric that shift took him from drawing trendlines to writing models at 22 the realization was simple but brutal: technical analysis gives you a narrative quantitative analysis gives you a number one feels right the other is testable, repeatable, and either works or doesn't across 10,000 trades the setup on his desk tells the whole story no TradingView. no candlestick charts. just code, data, and a terminal he didn't go to MIT he didn't intern at Goldman he learned Python, statistics, and probability theory on his own and built something that actually worked > the math: free in any stats textbook > the data: free on Yahoo Finance, FRED, exchange APIs > the code: Python, 200 lines, running on a laptop > the barrier: not intelligence. just knowing this path exists most people spend years staring at indicators from the 1970s wondering why they can't find consistency the answer was never a better indicator it was a completely different framework one that treats trading as a math problem, not a prediction game full breakdown in the video below
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a quant who started as a technical trader explained what changed everything for him he stopped trying to predict where price goes he started measuring the probability of each market state and betting only when the math was asymmetric that shift took him from drawing trendlines to writing models at 22 the realization was simple but brutal: technical analysis gives you a narrative quantitative analysis gives you a number one feels right the other is testable, repeatable, and either works or doesn't across 10,000 trades the setup on his desk tells the whole story no TradingView. no candlestick charts. just code, data, and a terminal he didn't go to MIT he didn't intern at Goldman he learned Python, statistics, and probability theory on his own and built something that actually worked > the math: free in any stats textbook > the data: free on Yahoo Finance, FRED, exchange APIs > the code: Python, 200 lines, running on a laptop > the barrier: not intelligence. just knowing this path exists most people spend years staring at indicators from the 1970s wondering why they can't find consistency the answer was never a better indicator it was a completely different framework one that treats trading as a math problem, not a prediction game full breakdown in the video below

delost

112,271 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Former Navy Seal, Doctor, and Astronaut, Jonny Kim (2020) recalls the day his drunk father pulled a gun on the family, and why fighting back left him feeling reborn "When my father died… I feel like it was the day I was reborn into someone else." "I think maybe he felt cornered… and cornered animals can be dangerous." "On this particular day… February 21st, 2002… my father came home… I could smell the whiskey on his breath, so I knew he was very intoxicated." "Some of the last words he said to me was, 'I'm sorry, Jonathan.' And he pepper-sprayed my face." "All I hear in the kitchen is my mother screaming for help and saying, 'he's got a gun.'" "I did my best to fight him and get that gun… as strong as I guess a 140-pound kid could do… But I lost that fight. I still have a scar… from when my father was able to get a hold of a dumbbell nearby and smash my head in with it." "I clearly remember saying that it's not too late. You have the power to decide right now. It's not too late." "I told him to go run, just run. And he did… that was the last time I saw my father." "I told police that I think my father's still in the house and he's in the attic… shots were fired and my father was killed." "I don't mean to sound callous, but in a lot of ways it liberated me… it liberated myself and my brother." "It taught me I'm not the scared little boy I thought I was… I can be a part of something bigger than myself." "The detective… said, 'Son, I'm sorry to tell you, but your father is dead.'… 'I take it that this is not bad news? Is this good?' And I said… 'I'm just relieved, sir.' And he said, 'I understand, son.'" "It's just a day… that helped me be reborn into the person I wanted to become."
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Former Navy Seal, Doctor, and Astronaut, Jonny Kim (2020) recalls the day his drunk father pulled a gun on the family, and why fighting back left him feeling reborn "When my father died… I feel like it was the day I was reborn into someone else." "I think maybe he felt cornered… and cornered animals can be dangerous." "On this particular day… February 21st, 2002… my father came home… I could smell the whiskey on his breath, so I knew he was very intoxicated." "Some of the last words he said to me was, 'I'm sorry, Jonathan.' And he pepper-sprayed my face." "All I hear in the kitchen is my mother screaming for help and saying, 'he's got a gun.'" "I did my best to fight him and get that gun… as strong as I guess a 140-pound kid could do… But I lost that fight. I still have a scar… from when my father was able to get a hold of a dumbbell nearby and smash my head in with it." "I clearly remember saying that it's not too late. You have the power to decide right now. It's not too late." "I told him to go run, just run. And he did… that was the last time I saw my father." "I told police that I think my father's still in the house and he's in the attic… shots were fired and my father was killed." "I don't mean to sound callous, but in a lot of ways it liberated me… it liberated myself and my brother." "It taught me I'm not the scared little boy I thought I was… I can be a part of something bigger than myself." "The detective… said, 'Son, I'm sorry to tell you, but your father is dead.'… 'I take it that this is not bad news? Is this good?' And I said… 'I'm just relieved, sir.' And he said, 'I understand, son.'" "It's just a day… that helped me be reborn into the person I wanted to become."

Fireside Alpha

12,975 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

a quant at a prop firm showed me a 5x5 grid on a napkin said: > this is our entire edge. we don't predict price. we predict which box the market is in and where that box historically leads i didn't understand it for weeks. then it clicked never looked at a chart the same way since grid is called a Markov Chain transition matrix. the math is from 1906, it's in every probability textbook on earth and hedge funds use it because it asks a completely different question than retail traders ever ask retail: will this go up or down quant: what state is this market in, and where does this state typically go every market lives in one of maybe 5-6 states at any given moment tight range, volatility compression, trending with momentum, post-spike reversal, pre-breakout coil not random labels - clusters you identify from actual data using volatility, volume, and momentum readings stacked together once you have the states, you build the matrix: P(state 2 -> state 4) = 73% P(state 4 -> state 1) = 61% P(state 1 -> state 3) = 68% each cell is a historical probability. now when the market is in state 2, you're not guessing you're betting on 73% historical completion. you size it with Kelly. you take the trade when the math says to, not when it feels right i built this on BTC using 2 years of 4-hour data. identified 5 states one i labeled "volatility compression below 20-day mean for 6+ consecutive candles" transitioned to a directional move above 1.8 ATR in 71% of cases average reward/risk on those trades: 5.4 that's not prediction. that's reading a probability table the market keeps filling in for you every single day the part that should bother you: the data to build this is free. the framework is in any quant textbook python to implement it is maybe 200 lines what Renaissance Technologies has that you don't isn't secret data or proprietary signals it's this framework applied to higher-resolution data with more sophisticated state definitions you're not missing information you're asking the wrong question every single time you open a chart
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a quant at a prop firm showed me a 5x5 grid on a napkin said: > this is our entire edge. we don't predict price. we predict which box the market is in and where that box historically leads i didn't understand it for weeks. then it clicked never looked at a chart the same way since grid is called a Markov Chain transition matrix. the math is from 1906, it's in every probability textbook on earth and hedge funds use it because it asks a completely different question than retail traders ever ask retail: will this go up or down quant: what state is this market in, and where does this state typically go every market lives in one of maybe 5-6 states at any given moment tight range, volatility compression, trending with momentum, post-spike reversal, pre-breakout coil not random labels - clusters you identify from actual data using volatility, volume, and momentum readings stacked together once you have the states, you build the matrix: P(state 2 -> state 4) = 73% P(state 4 -> state 1) = 61% P(state 1 -> state 3) = 68% each cell is a historical probability. now when the market is in state 2, you're not guessing you're betting on 73% historical completion. you size it with Kelly. you take the trade when the math says to, not when it feels right i built this on BTC using 2 years of 4-hour data. identified 5 states one i labeled "volatility compression below 20-day mean for 6+ consecutive candles" transitioned to a directional move above 1.8 ATR in 71% of cases average reward/risk on those trades: 5.4 that's not prediction. that's reading a probability table the market keeps filling in for you every single day the part that should bother you: the data to build this is free. the framework is in any quant textbook python to implement it is maybe 200 lines what Renaissance Technologies has that you don't isn't secret data or proprietary signals it's this framework applied to higher-resolution data with more sophisticated state definitions you're not missing information you're asking the wrong question every single time you open a chart

Livsun

189,343 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

I've never written a single line of code in my life. Private surgical clinic paid me to put their entire staff on AI - secretary, two surgeons, a nurse, an accountant, a marketer, a sales rep. One Grok Bot boss routing all of it, straight through Telegram. My first real commercial build. I still don't fully believe someone's paying me for this. Thank you to Elon and the whole SpaceX/xAI team for Grok Bot - this is exactly why. I'm not a programmer, I never studied the technical side of anything, and it was still simple enough for me to learn fast and ship something a real business is now running on. It's still beta. I know exactly what's rough in it - I wrote it all down. Next up: original characters for every role instead of the placeholder set, and tightening the rest. Full build is in the article below - every agent, every permission line, how it actually escalates. Read it before you assume this needs an engineer.
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I've never written a single line of code in my life. Private surgical clinic paid me to put their entire staff on AI - secretary, two surgeons, a nurse, an accountant, a marketer, a sales rep. One Grok Bot boss routing all of it, straight through Telegram. My first real commercial build. I still don't fully believe someone's paying me for this. Thank you to Elon and the whole SpaceX/xAI team for Grok Bot - this is exactly why. I'm not a programmer, I never studied the technical side of anything, and it was still simple enough for me to learn fast and ship something a real business is now running on. It's still beta. I know exactly what's rough in it - I wrote it all down. Next up: original characters for every role instead of the placeholder set, and tightening the rest. Full build is in the article below - every agent, every permission line, how it actually escalates. Read it before you assume this needs an engineer.

Aleiah

23,571 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

In 2008 a Stanford professor stood at a podium and proved, for free, that information and money grow by the exact same equation. it was filmed. it has been free for 18 years. 7,000 people watched it. Thomas Cover died four years later and took the fame with him. his life's work: Shannon's information theory and Kelly's betting formula are one thing. how much to bet is just how much you know. every quant sizing a trade in 2026 is standing on Cover, whether they know the name or not. he wrote the book every information theorist trains on. the lecture that ties it all to money sits on YouTube with fewer views than a cat clip. skip to where he turns a horse race into a stock market. same math. a bit of information, a fraction of your bankroll, one growth rate. no fund. no signal. one professor and one equation. a quant I know says this hour is the missing chapter behind every book on position sizing he owns. you are 18 years late. it is still free.
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In 2008 a Stanford professor stood at a podium and proved, for free, that information and money grow by the exact same equation. it was filmed. it has been free for 18 years. 7,000 people watched it. Thomas Cover died four years later and took the fame with him. his life's work: Shannon's information theory and Kelly's betting formula are one thing. how much to bet is just how much you know. every quant sizing a trade in 2026 is standing on Cover, whether they know the name or not. he wrote the book every information theorist trains on. the lecture that ties it all to money sits on YouTube with fewer views than a cat clip. skip to where he turns a horse race into a stock market. same math. a bit of information, a fraction of your bankroll, one growth rate. no fund. no signal. one professor and one equation. a quant I know says this hour is the missing chapter behind every book on position sizing he owns. you are 18 years late. it is still free.

Loran

33,982 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

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Before MiniMax Code touched a single line of my website, it went and studied 3 competitor sites first. I didn't ask it to copy them. I asked it to look at how they were structured, then build something better for what I actually needed: an AI Influencer collaboration business. Here's what that actually looked like. MCode opened each competitor page inside its Built-in Browser, no separate tool, no copy-pasting URLs into a scraper. It read through their layouts, screenshotted the sections that mattered, and pulled out: → how they positioned their CTA → how pricing was laid out → what content order kept people scrolling Then it took all of that and built my site around it. Not a template. Not a copy. My services, my pricing, my client reviews, structured with what it learned from pages that already convert. While it built, I wasn't stuck at my desk. I had Remote Control running, my phone mirrored to the desktop Agent in real time. Watched it work, jumped in twice to approve changes, all from my phone while the actual build stayed local on my machine. That's the part that changed how I think about MCode. It's not a prompt-to-website tool. It's an agent that does the research step you'd normally skip because you're in a hurry, and it lets you stay in control of it remotely instead of watching a loading screen. Started with an idea. Ended with a site that's actually informed by what works. Try MiniMax Code: Using MCode? Don't skip the Daily Check-In for extra points.

Aaliya

11,919 просмотров • 26 дней назад

Paul George says he bought a Ferrari on eBay for $120,000 after signing his first big contract “I just made my deal, and I was still trying to be cheap at the same time. This is how cheap I was though. My ass went on eBay to look up Ferraris” “I bought a Ferrari F430, all black. It was low mileage. The dude was actually a cool. He owned a ton of cars. He had a huge car collection. He was like, ‘I'll sell it to you.’ He was a fan, so I got it for the low” “I loved it because it was that thing that symbolized you made it. For me as a kid, it was a Ferrari. I don't care if I got $100,000 in the bank. If I got a Ferrari in the garage, I'm lit. I made it.” “Ironic enough, every deal that I signed, I went and got a different Ferrari. I think I ended up paying like $120,000. I met him. I introduced him to my financial partner and let them do the transaction”
1:59

Paul George says he bought a Ferrari on eBay for $120,000 after signing his first big contract “I just made my deal, and I was still trying to be cheap at the same time. This is how cheap I was though. My ass went on eBay to look up Ferraris” “I bought a Ferrari F430, all black. It was low mileage. The dude was actually a cool. He owned a ton of cars. He had a huge car collection. He was like, ‘I'll sell it to you.’ He was a fan, so I got it for the low” “I loved it because it was that thing that symbolized you made it. For me as a kid, it was a Ferrari. I don't care if I got $100,000 in the bank. If I got a Ferrari in the garage, I'm lit. I made it.” “Ironic enough, every deal that I signed, I went and got a different Ferrari. I think I ended up paying like $120,000. I met him. I introduced him to my financial partner and let them do the transaction”

dank

378,289 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

ONE OF CLAUDE'S DEVELOPERS MESSAGED ME "YOU'RE USING AI AT 5%. LET ME SHOW YOU HOW WE ACTUALLY WORK WITH IT" we talked for 40 minutes. he shared his screen and showed me his obsidian. i expected some complex setup with code it was a folder. a regular folder with text files but when he opened the graph - i went silent. thousands of dots. thousands of lines. everything connected. everything alive. he says "this is my brain after 4 months. i didn't link a single note manually. claude did all of it" then he showed me something i still haven't recovered from he typed to claude "where am i contradicting myself?" claude thought for about 10 seconds and returned 4 pairs of notes where he wrote one thing and did another. with dates. quoting his own words back at him he laughed and said "see? no friend will ever tell you this. but this thing will and it won't get offended" i asked him to help me set it up. he walked me through it. took two evenings now my vault is on the video. it's still small. but it already knows my projects, my goals, my weak spots. and every morning it writes me a short brief: what changed, where i'm stuck, what i forgot the scariest part - i can't imagine working without it anymore. and just a month ago i thought this was too complicated for me i was wrong full guide on how to build this from scratch - article attached i test things like this on myself and share the results. follow kai if you want to see what's next
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ONE OF CLAUDE'S DEVELOPERS MESSAGED ME "YOU'RE USING AI AT 5%. LET ME SHOW YOU HOW WE ACTUALLY WORK WITH IT" we talked for 40 minutes. he shared his screen and showed me his obsidian. i expected some complex setup with code it was a folder. a regular folder with text files but when he opened the graph - i went silent. thousands of dots. thousands of lines. everything connected. everything alive. he says "this is my brain after 4 months. i didn't link a single note manually. claude did all of it" then he showed me something i still haven't recovered from he typed to claude "where am i contradicting myself?" claude thought for about 10 seconds and returned 4 pairs of notes where he wrote one thing and did another. with dates. quoting his own words back at him he laughed and said "see? no friend will ever tell you this. but this thing will and it won't get offended" i asked him to help me set it up. he walked me through it. took two evenings now my vault is on the video. it's still small. but it already knows my projects, my goals, my weak spots. and every morning it writes me a short brief: what changed, where i'm stuck, what i forgot the scariest part - i can't imagine working without it anymore. and just a month ago i thought this was too complicated for me i was wrong full guide on how to build this from scratch - article attached i test things like this on myself and share the results. follow kai if you want to see what's next

kai

51,954 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Every gambler who ever muttered "I'm due for a win" was one theorem away from understanding why he was about to lose. an Oxford professor teaches that exact theorem for free. Vegas does not mind. the people who need these 50 minutes most are the ones feeding the slot machines instead. his subject is conditional probability. the wheel has no memory. ten reds in a row change nothing. the next spin carries the same edge against you, every single time. that is the whole casino in one idea. and the post above argues the whole market runs on it too. Crawford teaches it to Oxford first-years. no system. no strategy. no hot streak. just the proof that the house edge does not care what already happened. skip to conditional probability. watch him kill "I'm due" in one line. every bet independent, every one bleeding the same tiny percentage, the crowd paying it a million times over. no memory. no streaks. one edge, forever. a trader I know says the day he understood independence was the day he stopped revenge trading. the math has been free the whole time. the house is betting you never learn it.
51:16

Every gambler who ever muttered "I'm due for a win" was one theorem away from understanding why he was about to lose. an Oxford professor teaches that exact theorem for free. Vegas does not mind. the people who need these 50 minutes most are the ones feeding the slot machines instead. his subject is conditional probability. the wheel has no memory. ten reds in a row change nothing. the next spin carries the same edge against you, every single time. that is the whole casino in one idea. and the post above argues the whole market runs on it too. Crawford teaches it to Oxford first-years. no system. no strategy. no hot streak. just the proof that the house edge does not care what already happened. skip to conditional probability. watch him kill "I'm due" in one line. every bet independent, every one bleeding the same tiny percentage, the crowd paying it a million times over. no memory. no streaks. one edge, forever. a trader I know says the day he understood independence was the day he stopped revenge trading. the math has been free the whole time. the house is betting you never learn it.

Rossst.03

10,472 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Over a decade ago, a math professor in Chennai opened his first lecture with the simplest idea in all of math, and it is the exact thing every prediction market runs on today. NPTEL filmed it. it has been free ever since. 759,000 people have watched it, almost none of them trade. his point: before probability, before any odds, there are just sets. a bag of everything that can happen, and the slice you are betting on. every trader pricing a market is doing set theory without knowing the name for it. no Wall Street badge, no trading desk. just a professor at a green board building the whole machine from nothing. skip to the board in the first ten minutes. he takes union, intersection, and the outcomes you throw away, and turns them into the rules every payoff has to obey, in notation a schoolkid can follow. no slides. no app. one green board and a piece of chalk. a quant i know rewatched this exact lecture before rebuilding his risk model. said he had been skipping the part that actually matters. I put the practical aspects of this lecture into practice and developed a strategy that generates income, the results surprised me. 27 days. $200 → $25,400. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. I'm giving away the full configuration of my bot for free. 24 hours only. Here's how: >Comment "SEND" >Like and Follow me I'll send the complete setup in your DMs.
52:13

Over a decade ago, a math professor in Chennai opened his first lecture with the simplest idea in all of math, and it is the exact thing every prediction market runs on today. NPTEL filmed it. it has been free ever since. 759,000 people have watched it, almost none of them trade. his point: before probability, before any odds, there are just sets. a bag of everything that can happen, and the slice you are betting on. every trader pricing a market is doing set theory without knowing the name for it. no Wall Street badge, no trading desk. just a professor at a green board building the whole machine from nothing. skip to the board in the first ten minutes. he takes union, intersection, and the outcomes you throw away, and turns them into the rules every payoff has to obey, in notation a schoolkid can follow. no slides. no app. one green board and a piece of chalk. a quant i know rewatched this exact lecture before rebuilding his risk model. said he had been skipping the part that actually matters. I put the practical aspects of this lecture into practice and developed a strategy that generates income, the results surprised me. 27 days. $200 → $25,400. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. I'm giving away the full configuration of my bot for free. 24 hours only. Here's how: >Comment "SEND" >Like and Follow me I'll send the complete setup in your DMs.

Voltex

28,331 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Asked Alex Caruso about his shoe block: "I've never been in that situation before. And, I don't know, it came to me. I just thought I was gonna block it, and I honestly don't know what I thought the call would be. I didn't know it was going to be a goaltending and a tech. If I would've known that, I probably wouldn't have done it because it's three points. It's an automatic bucket, and he didn't even put the ball above the rim. As soon as I had my shoe in my hand, it crept in my mind to use it. Not like in a malicious way, but like 'Let me try to make a play to stop the ball.' It's just one of those weird NBA plays that probably won't happen for like another 10 years."
0:54

Asked Alex Caruso about his shoe block: "I've never been in that situation before. And, I don't know, it came to me. I just thought I was gonna block it, and I honestly don't know what I thought the call would be. I didn't know it was going to be a goaltending and a tech. If I would've known that, I probably wouldn't have done it because it's three points. It's an automatic bucket, and he didn't even put the ball above the rim. As soon as I had my shoe in my hand, it crept in my mind to use it. Not like in a malicious way, but like 'Let me try to make a play to stop the ball.' It's just one of those weird NBA plays that probably won't happen for like another 10 years."

Justin Martinez

591,222 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Jannik Sinner on winning Wimbledon last year 🌱❤️ 🦊: “If I'm very honest with you, when I was a little kid, I never would have thought to be in the position. Not even to play here in Wimbledon, because it was so, so far, and me coming from a very small town, it's not realistic to think that I would play just in Wimbledon, and now having at least 1 trophy and seeing my name here next to all these incredible names. “I do remember the last point, how it was, and seeing also my family right there, my whole team, my brother...it has been amazing. It is definitely something I would love to feel again, I'm not lying, but in the same time, if it's not gonna happen, I did it once, and I do remember forever, you know, for the rest of my life, and it is truly special having my name next to all the other names here.” 🎥 stansportau
0:57

Jannik Sinner on winning Wimbledon last year 🌱❤️ 🦊: “If I'm very honest with you, when I was a little kid, I never would have thought to be in the position. Not even to play here in Wimbledon, because it was so, so far, and me coming from a very small town, it's not realistic to think that I would play just in Wimbledon, and now having at least 1 trophy and seeing my name here next to all these incredible names. “I do remember the last point, how it was, and seeing also my family right there, my whole team, my brother...it has been amazing. It is definitely something I would love to feel again, I'm not lying, but in the same time, if it's not gonna happen, I did it once, and I do remember forever, you know, for the rest of my life, and it is truly special having my name next to all the other names here.” 🎥 stansportau

jannik sinner files

31,708 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад