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Narrative Convergence- Dave Collum and Melody Wright Melody Wright is a strategist, writer, technologist living in Johnson City, TN. She joins professor of organic chemistry at Cornell University Dave Collum to discuss data centers, Trump’s trip to China, Kevin Warsh confirmation, how climate panic is over, private credit, the...

16,983 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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The Housing Crash Nobody Wants to Talk About Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Melody Wright Melody Wright and Adam Taggart discuss why the U.S. housing market could be headed for a prolonged downturn that may ultimately prove worse than the 2008 housing crash. * The U.S. housing market may look stable on the surface, but the biggest problems are only beginning to emerge. While national home prices have not fallen significantly, Melody believes the market is effectively frozen and could be headed for a correction that ultimately exceeds the Global Financial Crisis in both depth and duration. * The core issue isn't supply—it's demand. There simply aren't enough qualified buyers. The spring selling season, normally the strongest period for home sales, was a major disappointment. Lower mortgage rates early in the year briefly created optimism, but geopolitical uncertainty quickly reversed that momentum. As a result, housing activity remains sluggish. * The buyers who are still transacting fall into two main groups: affluent households purchasing higher-end homes and buyers using government-backed financing programs such as FHA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac. Outside those segments, affordability has become a major obstacle, leaving much of the market without sufficient demand. * The market is also becoming increasingly bifurcated. In parts of the South and West, home sales have picked up compared to last year, but prices are declining as sellers accept lower offers to complete transactions. That's genuine price discovery. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest continue to see weak sales volumes, with June transactions down roughly 7% year over year. Because so few homes are changing hands, median prices have remained relatively stable, masking underlying weakness. * Melody argues that this cycle differs from 2008 in several important ways. One major concern is demographics. Younger generations simply don't have the purchasing power needed to replace aging homeowners at current price levels. Affordability challenges, higher living costs, and slower household formation limit the pool of future buyers. Another difference is the absence of a likely rescue from institutional investors. After the financial crisis, large firms purchased distressed homes and converted them into rental properties, helping stabilize the market. Melody doubts that level of institutional buying will return during this cycle. If private demand remains weak, the government could eventually become the buyer of last resort by purchasing excess housing inventory and converting it into affordable housing programs. * The timeline is another key part of the thesis. The previous housing downturn took roughly four to five years to bottom, but this cycle could last even longer because demographic pressures may persist into the mid-2030s. Instead of a sharp collapse followed by a quick recovery, Melody expects a prolonged period of stagnation and gradual price adjustment. * One event that could dramatically accelerate the process would be a major stock market correction. A significant decline in equities $SPX $QQQ would reduce household wealth, weaken consumer confidence, and further erode purchasing power, potentially causing housing prices to fall much faster than they otherwise would. * So, today's housing market isn't healthy simply because national prices remain elevated. Beneath the surface, demand is weak, affordability remains stretched, regional markets are diverging, and long-term structural forces continue to point toward a prolonged housing downturn that many investors may be underestimating. #housingmarket 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Melody Wright Melody Wright by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

Thoughtful Money®

16,535 просмотров • 14 дней назад

Caller: My husband and I are in way over our heads. We are about $1.3 million in debt with two businesses, a house loan, a car loan, credit cards, and back taxes. ​Dave Ramsey: How old are you guys? How long have you been married? ​Caller: We're both 28, married six years. ​Dave Ramsey: How much do you owe on your home and what's it worth? ​Caller: We owe about $48,000, and it's worth about $250,000. ​Dave Ramsey: What do you owe on your cars and in taxes? ​Caller: Cars is $17,000, taxes is $30,000. ​Dave Ramsey: That means we have a whole bunch of business debt, like $1.2 million worth? On what? ​Caller: My husband was fired four years ago and couldn't find stable work. We started a summer camp in 2022 built with credit card debt. To make that stable, we bought another business's assets for the $1.2m. ​Dave Ramsey: The credit card debt totals how much? ​Caller: About $19,000, and $15,000 of that is from the summer camp. ​Dave Ramsey: You don't own the land on the camp, do you? What kind of income do you make on that? ​Caller: No, sir, we rent the ground. It makes about $200,000 a year. ​Dave Ramsey: And the business that you purchased, what was the assets? Who loaned you $1.2 million for that? ​Caller: It’s event rentals like staging, lights, audiovisual, and inflatables. The SBA loaned it to us. ​Jade Warshaw: Is the camp still operational? Is there a way you can add things for other seasons to earn more? ​Caller: Yes, we still do it every year. We've been trying to, but we've hit a point in the economy where people are trying not to spend as much on fun stuff or childcare. ​Dave Ramsey: Not really true, but being so overwhelmed, I can see how you could start to think that. Lots of people are still renting kid stuff all over the place. The economics at your house suck, and I'm so sorry, honey.

Traeyz ♠️

144,159 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on the Iran war’s impact on global energy prices: 1. Prices shouldn’t rise much further: Wright said oil markets are near their ceiling. “They shouldn’t go much higher than they are here because the world is very well supplied with oil.” 2. “Weeks, not months”: Wright acknowledged a “temporary period of elevated energy prices,” but said “in the worst case, this is weeks — this is not months.” 3. “Emotional reactions and fear”: Wright said the spike in prices reflects market panic about escalation. “What you’re seeing is emotional reactions and fear that this is a long-term war… this is not a long-term war.” 4. Logistics issue, not a supply problem: “There’s no energy shortage at all in the Western Hemisphere,” Wright said, adding the disruption is mainly from crude flows being interrupted to refineries in Europe and Asia. 5. Hormuz threat being reduced: Wright said U.S. operations are aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming “their missile launches are down 90%, the drone launches are down over 80%.” He added early tankers leaving the Gulf may require direct U.S. military protection or escorts while efforts continue to “defang” Iran’s ability to threaten ships. ➤ Drop Site notes the claim that Iranian missile and drone launches have fallen 90% is not supported by activity observed over the past 48 hours. Source: Face The Nation

Drop Site

83,963 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад