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$NBIS has a really interesting setup into Wednesday because the demand is already there with $MSFT and $META contracts, Reflection AI’s $1B deal and GPU demand running several times above available capacity so the real question is how quickly Nebius can turn power and data centers into revenue. That’s...

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Shay Boloor

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98,400 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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Mark my words, Nebius will be the first Trillion dollar Neo-cloud company and here is why (Save this). Roman Chernin, CEO of Nebius just said on 20VC that Nebius raised prices and demand didn't move. When a company can raise prices and still have more demand than supply, that's the opportunity. Chernin also explained why he is deliberately not charging the maximum. As AI shifts from training, a one time cost to inference, which is the ongoing cost of serving every user and every query, compute pricing becomes the cost structure of the entire AI economy. If Nebius prices customers out, those customers cannot grow, and Nebius cannot grow with them. That is the compounding flywheel built directly into the revenue model. The numbers are already confirming it. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year. The AI cloud segment grew 840% and represented 98% of total revenue. Adjusted EBITDA flipped positive to $129.5 million. And Nebius signed a long-term agreement with Meta worth up to $27 billion over five years, a hyperscaler outsourcing its own AI compute stack to a neocloud, which tells you that even companies with $50 billion capex budgets cannot build fast enough. Goldman Sachs says the consensus is underestimating 2027 hyperscaler capex by $500 billion. Every dollar hyperscalers cannot provision themselves flows to neoclouds like Nebius. As that gap widens, Nebius captures the overflow with 3 gigawatts of contracted power already secured and a CEO who just told you raising prices did not dent demand. Our subscribers are already up massively on Nebius and come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, how to size Nebius against the broader neocloud opportunity, and our full AI thesis. Link below!
0:47

Mark my words, Nebius will be the first Trillion dollar Neo-cloud company and here is why (Save this). Roman Chernin, CEO of Nebius just said on 20VC that Nebius raised prices and demand didn't move. When a company can raise prices and still have more demand than supply, that's the opportunity. Chernin also explained why he is deliberately not charging the maximum. As AI shifts from training, a one time cost to inference, which is the ongoing cost of serving every user and every query, compute pricing becomes the cost structure of the entire AI economy. If Nebius prices customers out, those customers cannot grow, and Nebius cannot grow with them. That is the compounding flywheel built directly into the revenue model. The numbers are already confirming it. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year. The AI cloud segment grew 840% and represented 98% of total revenue. Adjusted EBITDA flipped positive to $129.5 million. And Nebius signed a long-term agreement with Meta worth up to $27 billion over five years, a hyperscaler outsourcing its own AI compute stack to a neocloud, which tells you that even companies with $50 billion capex budgets cannot build fast enough. Goldman Sachs says the consensus is underestimating 2027 hyperscaler capex by $500 billion. Every dollar hyperscalers cannot provision themselves flows to neoclouds like Nebius. As that gap widens, Nebius captures the overflow with 3 gigawatts of contracted power already secured and a CEO who just told you raising prices did not dent demand. Our subscribers are already up massively on Nebius and come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, how to size Nebius against the broader neocloud opportunity, and our full AI thesis. Link below!

Milk Road AI

15,677 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Jim Cramer just went on Mad Money and told investors to stay away from Nebius and that alone might be the strongest buy signal of the week (Save this). "Nebius is at the nexus of the craziness right now," Cramer said. "This stock is not done going down. There will be another time to buy it, but that time is not now." If you were waiting for one more confirmation, this week handed you several and the fundamentals moved the opposite direction from the stock price. Job postings in Singapore for Data Center Project Development, Site Selection & Colocation and Technical Due Diligence show Nebius actively scouting a new market, following similar signals in Wales and India within the same four day window. Job postings are a leading indicator that typically show up before a formal data center announcement, not after. Now here is the actual fundamental news from this week and it matters. Nebius announced a brand new business model, asset light infrastructure partnerships. Instead of financing every data center itself, outside partners will finance, own and operate the physical facilities. Nebius supplies the systems architecture, hardware design, software stack and its global sales organization. This is the same playbook major cloud providers and chipmakers have used for years, outsource the capital heavy physical layer, keep the high margin design and customer relationship layer. This directly addresses Nebius's biggest historical risk, the capital intensity of building GPU data centers fast enough to keep pace with demand. Nebius has already signed initial partnership deals under the new structure, meaning capacity can now scale globally without spending its own capital on land, steel, and power. None of this guarantees the stock stops falling in the short term, momentum is negative and the stock sits roughly 40% below its June all time high. The stock may keep falling but the thesis just got stronger and I am buying the company Nebius is becoming. Extremely bullish on Nebius and make sure to follow me Melvin for more underrated gems.
0:21

Jim Cramer just went on Mad Money and told investors to stay away from Nebius and that alone might be the strongest buy signal of the week (Save this). "Nebius is at the nexus of the craziness right now," Cramer said. "This stock is not done going down. There will be another time to buy it, but that time is not now." If you were waiting for one more confirmation, this week handed you several and the fundamentals moved the opposite direction from the stock price. Job postings in Singapore for Data Center Project Development, Site Selection & Colocation and Technical Due Diligence show Nebius actively scouting a new market, following similar signals in Wales and India within the same four day window. Job postings are a leading indicator that typically show up before a formal data center announcement, not after. Now here is the actual fundamental news from this week and it matters. Nebius announced a brand new business model, asset light infrastructure partnerships. Instead of financing every data center itself, outside partners will finance, own and operate the physical facilities. Nebius supplies the systems architecture, hardware design, software stack and its global sales organization. This is the same playbook major cloud providers and chipmakers have used for years, outsource the capital heavy physical layer, keep the high margin design and customer relationship layer. This directly addresses Nebius's biggest historical risk, the capital intensity of building GPU data centers fast enough to keep pace with demand. Nebius has already signed initial partnership deals under the new structure, meaning capacity can now scale globally without spending its own capital on land, steel, and power. None of this guarantees the stock stops falling in the short term, momentum is negative and the stock sits roughly 40% below its June all time high. The stock may keep falling but the thesis just got stronger and I am buying the company Nebius is becoming. Extremely bullish on Nebius and make sure to follow me Melvin for more underrated gems.

Melvin

27,692 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$NBIS is up nearly 30% because this quarter showed the AI compute shortage is translating into better pricing, faster paybacks, higher margins and better financing. Nebius now earns ~$25M per MW on normal contracts and up to $50M for immediate capacity while Q2 deals pay back in under two years and customers fund roughly half the capex upfront. That pricing power is already showing up in the market with its first capacity auction clearing 15% above prior $NVDA Blackwell pricing, AI cloud margins reaching 50% and management saying it could sell all of 2027 capacity today.
1:03

$NBIS is up nearly 30% because this quarter showed the AI compute shortage is translating into better pricing, faster paybacks, higher margins and better financing. Nebius now earns ~$25M per MW on normal contracts and up to $50M for immediate capacity while Q2 deals pay back in under two years and customers fund roughly half the capex upfront. That pricing power is already showing up in the market with its first capacity auction clearing 15% above prior $NVDA Blackwell pricing, AI cloud margins reaching 50% and management saying it could sell all of 2027 capacity today.

Shay Boloor

161,621 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Jensen Huang just told you exactly which AI bottleneck never goes away and it points directly to one of the best trades in the market right now. He did not say chip bottlenecks are permanent. He said the opposite, more chip capacity is a two to three year problem, more CoWoS packaging capacity is a two to three year problem, and none of the manufacturing constraints currently limiting Nvidia's ability to ship are structural barriers that cannot be solved. What he said is permanent or at least, far harder to solve is energy. You cannot build AI factories, reindustrialize the United States or build robots and next-generation compute without energy and energy does not respond to large purchase orders the way foundry capacity does. It involves regulatory timelines, grid interconnection queues, permitting cycles, and national policy decisions that no single company can accelerate regardless of how much capital they deploy. The US is staring down a 19 gigawatt power gap by 2028, and PJM launched an emergency integration plan earlier this year just to handle current data center load, not future load, current load. Nearly half of the data centers planned for 2026 are already delayed or canceled not because of chip shortages but because of transformer shortages, switchgear backlogs and grid capacity constraints that have nothing to do with silicon. This is the exact environment that makes Nebius a structurally differentiated position. While every other AI cloud buildout is fighting the same power bottleneck Jensen described, Nebius has already secured over 2 gigawatts of contracted power capacity with a 1.2 gigawatt campus in Missouri, another 310 megawatts in Finland and a Pennsylvania site adding another 1.2 gigawatts to the pipeline. Power is the constraint Jensen says no one can shortcut and Nebius has already locked in more of it than almost any independent AI cloud operator on the planet. That power moat sits underneath a $27 billion contracted revenue deal with Meta, a Microsoft partnership ramping to full run rate in 2027, and a 684% year over year revenue growth number that just printed in Q1. The Nebius thesis was always about infrastructure scarcity in a world of accelerating demand, Jensen just confirmed on camera which scarcity actually matters long-term, and it is exactly the one Nebius spent the last two years solving before anyone else was paying attention. Milk Road Pro called Nebius early, has been sitting on a massive gain on the position, and continues to track the infrastructure plays that matter before they become obvious to the rest of the market, come join us at the link in bio/below!
0:32

Jensen Huang just told you exactly which AI bottleneck never goes away and it points directly to one of the best trades in the market right now. He did not say chip bottlenecks are permanent. He said the opposite, more chip capacity is a two to three year problem, more CoWoS packaging capacity is a two to three year problem, and none of the manufacturing constraints currently limiting Nvidia's ability to ship are structural barriers that cannot be solved. What he said is permanent or at least, far harder to solve is energy. You cannot build AI factories, reindustrialize the United States or build robots and next-generation compute without energy and energy does not respond to large purchase orders the way foundry capacity does. It involves regulatory timelines, grid interconnection queues, permitting cycles, and national policy decisions that no single company can accelerate regardless of how much capital they deploy. The US is staring down a 19 gigawatt power gap by 2028, and PJM launched an emergency integration plan earlier this year just to handle current data center load, not future load, current load. Nearly half of the data centers planned for 2026 are already delayed or canceled not because of chip shortages but because of transformer shortages, switchgear backlogs and grid capacity constraints that have nothing to do with silicon. This is the exact environment that makes Nebius a structurally differentiated position. While every other AI cloud buildout is fighting the same power bottleneck Jensen described, Nebius has already secured over 2 gigawatts of contracted power capacity with a 1.2 gigawatt campus in Missouri, another 310 megawatts in Finland and a Pennsylvania site adding another 1.2 gigawatts to the pipeline. Power is the constraint Jensen says no one can shortcut and Nebius has already locked in more of it than almost any independent AI cloud operator on the planet. That power moat sits underneath a $27 billion contracted revenue deal with Meta, a Microsoft partnership ramping to full run rate in 2027, and a 684% year over year revenue growth number that just printed in Q1. The Nebius thesis was always about infrastructure scarcity in a world of accelerating demand, Jensen just confirmed on camera which scarcity actually matters long-term, and it is exactly the one Nebius spent the last two years solving before anyone else was paying attention. Milk Road Pro called Nebius early, has been sitting on a massive gain on the position, and continues to track the infrastructure plays that matter before they become obvious to the rest of the market, come join us at the link in bio/below!

Milk Road AI

21,316 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Greg Brockman, President of OpenAI, said there is not enough compute in the world to satisfy AI demand, and OpenAI itself cannot launch products it has already built because it cannot find the infrastructure to run them (Save this). OpenAI is spending $50 billion on compute in 2026 alone and it still is not enough. That is the setup but here is the trade. Nebius is one of the most asymmetric infrastructure plays in public markets right now, and most people have never heard of it. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year, with AI cloud revenue specifically growing 841% in a single quarter. The company entered 2026 with an exit ARR of $1.25 billion and is targeting $7 to $9 billion by year end, a number that would make it one of the fastest revenue ramps in the history of public infrastructure companies. The contracted backlog sits at $50 billion anchored by a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft through 2031 and a $27 billion five-year deal with Meta. They are decade-scale infrastructure commitments from the two largest enterprise AI spenders on earth, signed before the demand curve has even reached its steepest point. Nvidia took a direct equity stake in Nebius, one of only two neoclouds it has invested in alongside CoreWeave. That relationship is not just financial but rather means Nebius gets preferential access to GPU allocation at a moment when every lab and every hyperscaler is competing for the same constrained supply. Contracted power capacity now exceeds 3.5 gigawatts, with expansion plans targeting 5 to 6 GW by mid-2029. And power is the other binding constraint in AI infrastructure, you cannot build a data center without it and Nebius has already secured the capacity that competitors are still fighting to acquire. At full ramp, analysts project revenue in the $15 to $25 billion range by 2029, against a current market cap the contracted backlog alone already dwarfs. Come join Milk Road Pro and get our full Nebius deep-dive, the exact price levels we are watching, how we are sizing the position against the backlog and power capacity timeline, and our full AI thesis. link below!
1:00

Greg Brockman, President of OpenAI, said there is not enough compute in the world to satisfy AI demand, and OpenAI itself cannot launch products it has already built because it cannot find the infrastructure to run them (Save this). OpenAI is spending $50 billion on compute in 2026 alone and it still is not enough. That is the setup but here is the trade. Nebius is one of the most asymmetric infrastructure plays in public markets right now, and most people have never heard of it. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year, with AI cloud revenue specifically growing 841% in a single quarter. The company entered 2026 with an exit ARR of $1.25 billion and is targeting $7 to $9 billion by year end, a number that would make it one of the fastest revenue ramps in the history of public infrastructure companies. The contracted backlog sits at $50 billion anchored by a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft through 2031 and a $27 billion five-year deal with Meta. They are decade-scale infrastructure commitments from the two largest enterprise AI spenders on earth, signed before the demand curve has even reached its steepest point. Nvidia took a direct equity stake in Nebius, one of only two neoclouds it has invested in alongside CoreWeave. That relationship is not just financial but rather means Nebius gets preferential access to GPU allocation at a moment when every lab and every hyperscaler is competing for the same constrained supply. Contracted power capacity now exceeds 3.5 gigawatts, with expansion plans targeting 5 to 6 GW by mid-2029. And power is the other binding constraint in AI infrastructure, you cannot build a data center without it and Nebius has already secured the capacity that competitors are still fighting to acquire. At full ramp, analysts project revenue in the $15 to $25 billion range by 2029, against a current market cap the contracted backlog alone already dwarfs. Come join Milk Road Pro and get our full Nebius deep-dive, the exact price levels we are watching, how we are sizing the position against the backlog and power capacity timeline, and our full AI thesis. link below!

Milk Road AI

14,578 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

My full interview with Roman Chernin, Co-founder & Chief Business Officer of Nebius Nebius just signed a $17 billion deal with Microsoft and a $3 billion deal with Meta. These are two of the biggest tech companies on Earth - and they're coming to Nebius for AI infrastructure. But the company does so much more than that: - Full-stack AI cloud (data centers → software → managed services) - Nebius Token Factory Nebius Token Factory for managed inference & post-training - Partners include Shopify, Higgsfield, Jetbrains My 5 takeaways with Roman Chernin below - thanks for the conversation! Full interview also available on YT ⬇️ Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:47 - Overview of Nebius $NBIS 03:23 - Roman's background and role at Nebius 04:10 - The $17B Microsoft & $3B Meta deals 05:29 - Why hyperscalers trust Nebius over building in-house 07:06 - Nebius's full-stack approach: Data centers to managed services 08:39 - Customer segmentation: Hyperscalers & Frontier AI Labs vs AI Startups vs Enterprises 14:41 - Token Factory explained: Managed inference & post-training 17:41 - When to switch from closed-source to open-source models 20:59 - Real results: Process achieves 26% cost reduction 25:05 - Why developers love building on Nebius 28:40 - AI agents and the future of infrastructure interaction 32:22 - NVIDIA's Groq acquisition: What it means for inference 35:38 - Why AI adoption will surprise us
39:46

My full interview with Roman Chernin, Co-founder & Chief Business Officer of Nebius Nebius just signed a $17 billion deal with Microsoft and a $3 billion deal with Meta. These are two of the biggest tech companies on Earth - and they're coming to Nebius for AI infrastructure. But the company does so much more than that: - Full-stack AI cloud (data centers → software → managed services) - Nebius Token Factory Nebius Token Factory for managed inference & post-training - Partners include Shopify, Higgsfield, Jetbrains My 5 takeaways with Roman Chernin below - thanks for the conversation! Full interview also available on YT ⬇️ Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:47 - Overview of Nebius $NBIS 03:23 - Roman's background and role at Nebius 04:10 - The $17B Microsoft & $3B Meta deals 05:29 - Why hyperscalers trust Nebius over building in-house 07:06 - Nebius's full-stack approach: Data centers to managed services 08:39 - Customer segmentation: Hyperscalers & Frontier AI Labs vs AI Startups vs Enterprises 14:41 - Token Factory explained: Managed inference & post-training 17:41 - When to switch from closed-source to open-source models 20:59 - Real results: Process achieves 26% cost reduction 25:05 - Why developers love building on Nebius 28:40 - AI agents and the future of infrastructure interaction 32:22 - NVIDIA's Groq acquisition: What it means for inference 35:38 - Why AI adoption will surprise us

Elliot Garreffa

29,888 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Nebius is one of the most undervalued AI infrastructure companies in the public markets right now (Save this). Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher who wrote the 165-page essay predicting AGI within this decade and then launched the $13.7 billion Situational Awareness Fund around that thesis just filed a 13G disclosing a 5.6% stake in Nebius, representing 12.41 million Class A shares. This is the man whose entire investment framework is built on one core conviction, AI will advance faster than anyone expects, and the binding constraint will not be algorithms or model architectures, it will be physical computing infrastructure, data center capacity, and energy. Now look at what Nebius actually is and why this conviction is justified by the numbers alone. Nebius is a GPU native AI cloud platform, a neocloud built from the ground up specifically for AI training and inference workloads, founded by Arkady Volozh, the former CEO of Yandex who divested all non-Russian assets and left Russia in direct opposition to Putin before relisting the company on Nasdaq. In Q1 2026, Nebius reported $399 million in revenue, a 684% increase year over year from just $50.9 million while also delivering EBITDA and adjusted EPS that beat consensus estimates by 43% and 50% respectively, in a quarter where analysts had already built in aggressive assumptions. The scale of the infrastructure buildout is what makes the valuation argument so compelling. Nebius has raised its contracted power capacity guidance to over 4 gigawatts for 2026, with a target of 5 gigawatts of AI computing capacity deployed by 2030, including multiple gigawatt-scale AI factories across the United States and Europe. The Finland campus coming soon to Lappeenranta will be 310 megawatts powered by low-carbon energy, making it one of the largest AI data centers in Europe, specifically located in a cold-climate, energy-stable region that dramatically reduces cooling costs and carbon intensity. The 2026 capacity is already effectively sold out according to management disclosures, which means every megawatt Nebius brings online has a revenue contract attached to it before the facility opens. The strategic backing validates the thesis at every level. NVIDIA committed a $2 billion strategic investment in Nebius by 2030, with the two companies co-developing an inference stack, implementing NVIDIA's GPU health monitoring systems, and deploying next-generation architectures including Rubin GPUs, Vera CPUs, and Bluefield storage systems meaning Nebius gets preferential access to the hardware that every other AI company is begging Jensen Huang for. Meta signed a $27 billion agreement with Nebius, with $12 billion in dedicated computing resources confirmed and up to $15 billion in additional capacity over the coming years. And Nebius just partnered with Bloom Energy on a $2.6 billion deal guaranteeing 328 megawatts of installed capacity through modular fuel cell systems behind the meter power that eliminates grid dependency and accelerates deployment timelines. The forward valuation math is where the undervaluation case becomes undeniable. Nebius is pricing in $3.5 billion in revenue for 2026 and $11 billion for 2027, which puts the forward price-to-sales ratio at 16.6 times for this year and just 5.3 times for next year for a company growing revenue at 684% year over year with sold out capacity, NVIDIA backing, a $27 billion Meta contract, and a path to 4+ gigawatts of contracted power. Milk Road has been positioned in Nebius and we believe the convergence of Leopold's conviction stake, NVIDIA's $2 billion endorsement, Meta's $27 billion commitment, and a physical infrastructure buildout that is sold out before it opens represents one of the highest-quality risk-reward setups in AI infrastructure today. Come join Milk Road Pro and get our full Nebius thesis including the exact framework we use to think about neocloud valuation, the power capacity math that determines when revenue accelerates, and every catalyst we are watching through 2027. Link in bio/below.
0:20

Nebius is one of the most undervalued AI infrastructure companies in the public markets right now (Save this). Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher who wrote the 165-page essay predicting AGI within this decade and then launched the $13.7 billion Situational Awareness Fund around that thesis just filed a 13G disclosing a 5.6% stake in Nebius, representing 12.41 million Class A shares. This is the man whose entire investment framework is built on one core conviction, AI will advance faster than anyone expects, and the binding constraint will not be algorithms or model architectures, it will be physical computing infrastructure, data center capacity, and energy. Now look at what Nebius actually is and why this conviction is justified by the numbers alone. Nebius is a GPU native AI cloud platform, a neocloud built from the ground up specifically for AI training and inference workloads, founded by Arkady Volozh, the former CEO of Yandex who divested all non-Russian assets and left Russia in direct opposition to Putin before relisting the company on Nasdaq. In Q1 2026, Nebius reported $399 million in revenue, a 684% increase year over year from just $50.9 million while also delivering EBITDA and adjusted EPS that beat consensus estimates by 43% and 50% respectively, in a quarter where analysts had already built in aggressive assumptions. The scale of the infrastructure buildout is what makes the valuation argument so compelling. Nebius has raised its contracted power capacity guidance to over 4 gigawatts for 2026, with a target of 5 gigawatts of AI computing capacity deployed by 2030, including multiple gigawatt-scale AI factories across the United States and Europe. The Finland campus coming soon to Lappeenranta will be 310 megawatts powered by low-carbon energy, making it one of the largest AI data centers in Europe, specifically located in a cold-climate, energy-stable region that dramatically reduces cooling costs and carbon intensity. The 2026 capacity is already effectively sold out according to management disclosures, which means every megawatt Nebius brings online has a revenue contract attached to it before the facility opens. The strategic backing validates the thesis at every level. NVIDIA committed a $2 billion strategic investment in Nebius by 2030, with the two companies co-developing an inference stack, implementing NVIDIA's GPU health monitoring systems, and deploying next-generation architectures including Rubin GPUs, Vera CPUs, and Bluefield storage systems meaning Nebius gets preferential access to the hardware that every other AI company is begging Jensen Huang for. Meta signed a $27 billion agreement with Nebius, with $12 billion in dedicated computing resources confirmed and up to $15 billion in additional capacity over the coming years. And Nebius just partnered with Bloom Energy on a $2.6 billion deal guaranteeing 328 megawatts of installed capacity through modular fuel cell systems behind the meter power that eliminates grid dependency and accelerates deployment timelines. The forward valuation math is where the undervaluation case becomes undeniable. Nebius is pricing in $3.5 billion in revenue for 2026 and $11 billion for 2027, which puts the forward price-to-sales ratio at 16.6 times for this year and just 5.3 times for next year for a company growing revenue at 684% year over year with sold out capacity, NVIDIA backing, a $27 billion Meta contract, and a path to 4+ gigawatts of contracted power. Milk Road has been positioned in Nebius and we believe the convergence of Leopold's conviction stake, NVIDIA's $2 billion endorsement, Meta's $27 billion commitment, and a physical infrastructure buildout that is sold out before it opens represents one of the highest-quality risk-reward setups in AI infrastructure today. Come join Milk Road Pro and get our full Nebius thesis including the exact framework we use to think about neocloud valuation, the power capacity math that determines when revenue accelerates, and every catalyst we are watching through 2027. Link in bio/below.

Milk Road AI

61,932 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Nebius is going to be a Trillion-dollar company! Twelve months ago, Nebius was trading near $18 per share with roughly $55 million in quarterly revenue. Today the stock trades above $225, quarterly revenue just came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year and the company has a contracted revenue backlog that would make most Fortune 500 companies envious. But the current market cap, sitting around $56 billion, prices in almost none of what is actually coming. The first reason Nebius reaches a trillion is the Meta deal alone. In March, Nebius signed a five year agreement with Meta worth up to $27 billion, one of the largest infrastructure contracts Meta has ever signed with any company under which Nebius will provide $12 billion in dedicated AI capacity across multiple locations, with Meta also having committed to purchase up to an additional $15 billion in third-party capacity over the same period. That contract barely starts until 2027, which means the revenue impact is not yet reflected in any trailing metric. The second reason is Microsoft, which is currently receiving its first deployment phases from Nebius and is expected to contribute at full annual run rate starting in 2027. Between Meta and Microsoft alone, Nebius has signed agreements worth more than $46 billion in total contracted value before a single additional customer is counted. The third reason is the ARR trajectory, which is the fastest revenue ramp of any infrastructure company in the public markets. Nebius ended 2025 at $1.25 billion in ARR and is guiding to $7–9 billion ARR by year-end 2026. Wall Street analysts project revenue growing 523% in 2026 and another 206% in 2027. One of the company's own institutional shareholders has already suggested the year-end ARR could come in more than twice the guided range if the Meta and Microsoft ramps hit their timelines. The fourth reason is Nvidia's direct involvement. Nvidia made a $2 billion strategic equity investment in Nebius and has given Nebius early access to the Vera Rubin platform, its next generation GPU architecture as part of the delivery commitments to Meta. The fifth reason is the capacity buildout, which is being funded by the revenue itself. Nebius invested $2.5 billion in capex in Q1 alone, CEO Arkady Volozh has guided for $16–20 billion in total investment for 2026, and contracted capacity is now on track to exceed 4 GW by year end with new owned sites in Pennsylvania at 1.2 GW and Finland at 310 MW now under development. The more capacity they build, the more they can sell and demand continues to outpace supply at every stage of the buildout. When you run the math on a business with $7–9 billion in ARR exiting 2026, a $27 billion Meta contract that begins in earnest in 2027, a Microsoft relationship at full run rate, 206% analyst projected growth in 2027, and a structural relationship with Nvidia that gives it hardware access no competitor can match, a trillion-dollar valuation within three to four years is not a moonshot. It is the base case if the compounding holds, and every data point so far suggests it is. Milk Road Pro called this one early. Our analysts added Nebius to the portfolio when it was still flying under the radar, and we are sitting on a massive gain on that position right now. If you want to see what else we are building conviction on before the rest of the market catches up, come join us at Milk Road Pro at the link in bio/below!
1:04

Nebius is going to be a Trillion-dollar company! Twelve months ago, Nebius was trading near $18 per share with roughly $55 million in quarterly revenue. Today the stock trades above $225, quarterly revenue just came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year and the company has a contracted revenue backlog that would make most Fortune 500 companies envious. But the current market cap, sitting around $56 billion, prices in almost none of what is actually coming. The first reason Nebius reaches a trillion is the Meta deal alone. In March, Nebius signed a five year agreement with Meta worth up to $27 billion, one of the largest infrastructure contracts Meta has ever signed with any company under which Nebius will provide $12 billion in dedicated AI capacity across multiple locations, with Meta also having committed to purchase up to an additional $15 billion in third-party capacity over the same period. That contract barely starts until 2027, which means the revenue impact is not yet reflected in any trailing metric. The second reason is Microsoft, which is currently receiving its first deployment phases from Nebius and is expected to contribute at full annual run rate starting in 2027. Between Meta and Microsoft alone, Nebius has signed agreements worth more than $46 billion in total contracted value before a single additional customer is counted. The third reason is the ARR trajectory, which is the fastest revenue ramp of any infrastructure company in the public markets. Nebius ended 2025 at $1.25 billion in ARR and is guiding to $7–9 billion ARR by year-end 2026. Wall Street analysts project revenue growing 523% in 2026 and another 206% in 2027. One of the company's own institutional shareholders has already suggested the year-end ARR could come in more than twice the guided range if the Meta and Microsoft ramps hit their timelines. The fourth reason is Nvidia's direct involvement. Nvidia made a $2 billion strategic equity investment in Nebius and has given Nebius early access to the Vera Rubin platform, its next generation GPU architecture as part of the delivery commitments to Meta. The fifth reason is the capacity buildout, which is being funded by the revenue itself. Nebius invested $2.5 billion in capex in Q1 alone, CEO Arkady Volozh has guided for $16–20 billion in total investment for 2026, and contracted capacity is now on track to exceed 4 GW by year end with new owned sites in Pennsylvania at 1.2 GW and Finland at 310 MW now under development. The more capacity they build, the more they can sell and demand continues to outpace supply at every stage of the buildout. When you run the math on a business with $7–9 billion in ARR exiting 2026, a $27 billion Meta contract that begins in earnest in 2027, a Microsoft relationship at full run rate, 206% analyst projected growth in 2027, and a structural relationship with Nvidia that gives it hardware access no competitor can match, a trillion-dollar valuation within three to four years is not a moonshot. It is the base case if the compounding holds, and every data point so far suggests it is. Milk Road Pro called this one early. Our analysts added Nebius to the portfolio when it was still flying under the radar, and we are sitting on a massive gain on that position right now. If you want to see what else we are building conviction on before the rest of the market catches up, come join us at Milk Road Pro at the link in bio/below!

Milk Road AI

48,673 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

This is why Nebius will be a trillion dollar hyperscaler (Save this). Nebius is not building another GPU rental shop but rather building a vertically integrated hyperscaler that owns everything from the physical data center, to the server rack hardware it designs in house, to the software stack, to the inference delivery layer. Nearly every other neocloud is essentially a reseller of someone else's infrastructure but Nebius owns the full stack end to end and that distinction is the entire thesis. Here is why vertical integration is the winning architecture for the inference era. AWS and Azure were architected for general purpose computing and every AI workload they run sits on top of infrastructure that was never designed for it, patched, adapted and optimized after the fact. Nebius was built from day one specifically for AI which means every layer of the stack is purpose built and co optimized. The rack design, the networking topology, the cooling systems and the software that orchestrates it all are engineered together as a single system rather than assembled from parts that were never meant to work together. That architectural difference compounds with every passing quarter as AI workloads grow more complex and the performance gap between purpose built and general purpose infrastructure widens. The software layer is where the real competitive moat lives. Most infrastructure companies think of software as a wrapper around hardware while Nebius thinks of software as the product with hardware as the substrate it controls. The company is building an AI native cloud platform where the software layer handles model serving, inference optimization, fine tuning pipelines and developer tooling as first-class primitives. This matters because inference efficiency is almost entirely a software problem. Two companies running identical GPUs can deliver dramatically different performance and cost per token depending on how intelligently the software schedules, batches and routes inference requests across the cluster. Nebius is also building for a fundamental shift in how AI infrastructure gets consumed. Today, enterprise developers navigate massive cloud service catalogs spinning up clusters, managing configurations and building deep expertise in AWS or GCP-specific tooling. The next generation of builders will simply provision agents to interface with infrastructure directly. Nebius is architecting its software layer for that future , one where the interface between the developer and the compute abstraction layer looks nothing like what AWS built in 2006. The entire available capacity has been sold out every quarter. And that is the best possible validation that what Nebius is building is exactly what the market needs and that the market is willing to commit at a scale that makes the current valuation look like the beginning of a much longer story. Long Nebius and make sure to follow me Melvin for more overlooked AI stocks.
4:44

This is why Nebius will be a trillion dollar hyperscaler (Save this). Nebius is not building another GPU rental shop but rather building a vertically integrated hyperscaler that owns everything from the physical data center, to the server rack hardware it designs in house, to the software stack, to the inference delivery layer. Nearly every other neocloud is essentially a reseller of someone else's infrastructure but Nebius owns the full stack end to end and that distinction is the entire thesis. Here is why vertical integration is the winning architecture for the inference era. AWS and Azure were architected for general purpose computing and every AI workload they run sits on top of infrastructure that was never designed for it, patched, adapted and optimized after the fact. Nebius was built from day one specifically for AI which means every layer of the stack is purpose built and co optimized. The rack design, the networking topology, the cooling systems and the software that orchestrates it all are engineered together as a single system rather than assembled from parts that were never meant to work together. That architectural difference compounds with every passing quarter as AI workloads grow more complex and the performance gap between purpose built and general purpose infrastructure widens. The software layer is where the real competitive moat lives. Most infrastructure companies think of software as a wrapper around hardware while Nebius thinks of software as the product with hardware as the substrate it controls. The company is building an AI native cloud platform where the software layer handles model serving, inference optimization, fine tuning pipelines and developer tooling as first-class primitives. This matters because inference efficiency is almost entirely a software problem. Two companies running identical GPUs can deliver dramatically different performance and cost per token depending on how intelligently the software schedules, batches and routes inference requests across the cluster. Nebius is also building for a fundamental shift in how AI infrastructure gets consumed. Today, enterprise developers navigate massive cloud service catalogs spinning up clusters, managing configurations and building deep expertise in AWS or GCP-specific tooling. The next generation of builders will simply provision agents to interface with infrastructure directly. Nebius is architecting its software layer for that future , one where the interface between the developer and the compute abstraction layer looks nothing like what AWS built in 2006. The entire available capacity has been sold out every quarter. And that is the best possible validation that what Nebius is building is exactly what the market needs and that the market is willing to commit at a scale that makes the current valuation look like the beginning of a much longer story. Long Nebius and make sure to follow me Melvin for more overlooked AI stocks.

Melvin

34,306 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Nebius will be the first trillion dollar neocloud hyperscaler. Most neoclouds are stuck in a single business model, renting bare GPU capacity to whoever will pay for it. Nebius is deliberately building across four layers instead, bare metal, managed infrastructure, inference, and eventually agentic tooling and each layer up the stack dramatically expands who can actually buy from them. Bare metal has maybe a dozen viable customers worldwide, since only the biggest players can even use raw infrastructure at that scale. Managed infrastructure opens that up to hundreds of buyers, while inference reaches thousands of potential customers. Agentic services are still early, but they could eventually serve tens of thousands of developers building on top of the platform. That's the real engine behind a trillion dollar outcome, since a single layer rental business caps out far lower than a company selling into an expanding pyramid of customers at every altitude. There's also a strategic decision buried in how Nebius handles its biggest clients. Serving giants like Meta and Microsoft is a double edged sword, since those companies bring their own full software stack and only need physical infrastructure underneath it, which leaves very thin margin for Nebius to capture on top. Roman was explicit that the company's long term strategy is to avoid over relying on any single hyperscaler and instead build a diversified customer portfolio spanning every layer of the stack, so no single client can dictate terms or growth. He also pushed back on the idea that this business is commodity, arguing that keeping up with what a Meta or Microsoft actually demands from infrastructure at true hyperscale is genuinely difficult, which is exactly why most emerging neoclouds can't even compete for that tier of client. The numbers from this week back up the strategy because revenue came in at 582 million dollars, up 454% year over year, while annualized recurring revenue hit 3.0 billion dollars, up 58% quarter over quarter. Four separate customer contracts signed during the quarter were each worth more than 1 billion dollars in total contract value. Pricing power tells the same story from a different angle. Nebius's newest capacity auction cleared 15% above any price it had ever charged before, and short notice hardware is now going for 40 to 50 million dollars per megawatt, roughly four to five times the 9.8 million dollar per megawatt baseline from earlier deals. That kind of pricing trajectory, paired with a push into higher margin inference and agentic layers, builds a revenue mix that scales well past what a pure infrastructure landlord could ever reach. There are a few other pieces that make Nebius structurally different from the rest of the pack because it owns its full vertical stack, from data center design to server racks to the software layer running on top of all of it. It also has early access to Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, following Nvidia's 9.3% stake in the company, and it holds side businesses in autonomous driving through Avride and data infrastructure through ClickHouse and Toloka. Nebius is building far more than a GPU rental business, and I think the market is still underestimating how big that full-stack platform can become. Bullish on Nebius becoming the first trillion-dollar neocloud hyperscaler, make sure to follow Melvin for more AI infrastructure insights, and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link for more.
3:07

Nebius will be the first trillion dollar neocloud hyperscaler. Most neoclouds are stuck in a single business model, renting bare GPU capacity to whoever will pay for it. Nebius is deliberately building across four layers instead, bare metal, managed infrastructure, inference, and eventually agentic tooling and each layer up the stack dramatically expands who can actually buy from them. Bare metal has maybe a dozen viable customers worldwide, since only the biggest players can even use raw infrastructure at that scale. Managed infrastructure opens that up to hundreds of buyers, while inference reaches thousands of potential customers. Agentic services are still early, but they could eventually serve tens of thousands of developers building on top of the platform. That's the real engine behind a trillion dollar outcome, since a single layer rental business caps out far lower than a company selling into an expanding pyramid of customers at every altitude. There's also a strategic decision buried in how Nebius handles its biggest clients. Serving giants like Meta and Microsoft is a double edged sword, since those companies bring their own full software stack and only need physical infrastructure underneath it, which leaves very thin margin for Nebius to capture on top. Roman was explicit that the company's long term strategy is to avoid over relying on any single hyperscaler and instead build a diversified customer portfolio spanning every layer of the stack, so no single client can dictate terms or growth. He also pushed back on the idea that this business is commodity, arguing that keeping up with what a Meta or Microsoft actually demands from infrastructure at true hyperscale is genuinely difficult, which is exactly why most emerging neoclouds can't even compete for that tier of client. The numbers from this week back up the strategy because revenue came in at 582 million dollars, up 454% year over year, while annualized recurring revenue hit 3.0 billion dollars, up 58% quarter over quarter. Four separate customer contracts signed during the quarter were each worth more than 1 billion dollars in total contract value. Pricing power tells the same story from a different angle. Nebius's newest capacity auction cleared 15% above any price it had ever charged before, and short notice hardware is now going for 40 to 50 million dollars per megawatt, roughly four to five times the 9.8 million dollar per megawatt baseline from earlier deals. That kind of pricing trajectory, paired with a push into higher margin inference and agentic layers, builds a revenue mix that scales well past what a pure infrastructure landlord could ever reach. There are a few other pieces that make Nebius structurally different from the rest of the pack because it owns its full vertical stack, from data center design to server racks to the software layer running on top of all of it. It also has early access to Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, following Nvidia's 9.3% stake in the company, and it holds side businesses in autonomous driving through Avride and data infrastructure through ClickHouse and Toloka. Nebius is building far more than a GPU rental business, and I think the market is still underestimating how big that full-stack platform can become. Bullish on Nebius becoming the first trillion-dollar neocloud hyperscaler, make sure to follow Melvin for more AI infrastructure insights, and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link for more.

Melvin

28,972 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

$NBIS is showing just how tight AI compute still is as its first Blackwell capacity auction cleared 15% above the company’s previous record price and management says it could already sell out planned 2027 capacity today. That scarcity is translating directly into pricing power with long-term deals yielding ~$25M per MW while 6-month capacity is clearing at ~$50M per MW. That pricing power is now feeding directly into the model with Q2 revenue up 454% YoY, ARR reaching $3B backlog topping $40B and AI cloud margins near 50% while management raises contracted power to more than 5 GW and targets over 1 GW of new capacity annually from 2027.
1:02

$NBIS is showing just how tight AI compute still is as its first Blackwell capacity auction cleared 15% above the company’s previous record price and management says it could already sell out planned 2027 capacity today. That scarcity is translating directly into pricing power with long-term deals yielding ~$25M per MW while 6-month capacity is clearing at ~$50M per MW. That pricing power is now feeding directly into the model with Q2 revenue up 454% YoY, ARR reaching $3B backlog topping $40B and AI cloud margins near 50% while management raises contracted power to more than 5 GW and targets over 1 GW of new capacity annually from 2027.

Shay Boloor

68,480 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The majority of neoclouds will eventually go out of business but here is the winning formula if you want to win. (Save this). The core problem for the industry is that the economics of running GPU infrastructure only work at massive scale, with cheap financing and investment grade customers backing long term contracts. A lot of the names crowding the middle column of that chart are Bitcoin miners who converted their rigs into GPU racks chasing the AI trend, rather than companies built from the ground up for this business, which is exactly the kind of opportunistic entrant that gets wiped out when capital tightens or utilization dips. Nebius sits in the Neocloud Giants tier alongside CoreWeave, Lambda and Crusoe, and today's Q2 2026 print showed exactly why it's pulling away from the pack rather than getting lumped in with the 78 emerging players facing consolidation risk. Revenue hit $582 million, up 454% year over year, with annualized recurring revenue reaching $3.0 billion by the end of June, up 58% quarter over quarter. The company won four separate customer agreements each worth over $1 billion in total contract value and total contract value won during the quarter jumped 4x versus the prior period, a growth rate most of the smaller neoclouds on that chart simply can't match without hyperscaler grade balance sheets. Here's the vertical stack that sets Nebius apart from most names on that chart. Unlike pure GPU rental shops that lease space in someone else's data center, Nebius designs its own data centers, builds its own server racks and motherboards, procures its own compute, and runs a proprietary AI specific cloud platform layer on top of all of it. That full stack control, from silicon to software, is precisely what most of the emerging neoclouds in the chart's middle column lack, since converting a Bitcoin mining facility gives you power and cooling, but not in house rack engineering or a purpose built cloud software layer. Nebius has also been shifting from leased to owned infrastructure, with more than 75% of its contracted power now sitting at facilities it directly controls, up sharply from a mostly leased model just a year ago. That ownership shift is the difference between capturing margin over the long run versus being at the mercy of a landlord's lease terms, which is a structural advantage over neoclouds still renting third party space. Now for the pricing power piece. Nebius disclosed today that it's now charging $40-50 million per megawatt on new capacity deals, already signing its first one at that price this week, up from roughly $12 million per megawatt on its 2026 base contracts. Management also said it could sell its entire 2027 capacity right now on these terms but is deliberately holding some back for near term customer needs, a level of pricing leverage that tells you demand is outstripping supply for anyone offering real scale and reliability, exactly the customer profile the smaller, undercapitalized neoclouds struggle to attract. Nebius isn't a single product company either, which matters given how many names on that chart have no other legs to stand on if GPU rental margins compress. The company owns Avride, an autonomous driving and delivery robotics business with partnerships with Uber and Hyundai, TripleTen, a tech re skilling edtech platform and holds equity stakes in ClickHouse, the database company it spun out and recently backed in a funding round, and in Toloka, an AI data-labeling platform that sold a majority stake to Bezos Expeditions and Shopify in 2025. Those side businesses give Nebius optionality and diversified cash flow that a converted mining rig operator simply doesn't have. Bullish on Nebius, make sure to follow Melvin for more AI infrastructure insights, and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link below for more.
4:32

The majority of neoclouds will eventually go out of business but here is the winning formula if you want to win. (Save this). The core problem for the industry is that the economics of running GPU infrastructure only work at massive scale, with cheap financing and investment grade customers backing long term contracts. A lot of the names crowding the middle column of that chart are Bitcoin miners who converted their rigs into GPU racks chasing the AI trend, rather than companies built from the ground up for this business, which is exactly the kind of opportunistic entrant that gets wiped out when capital tightens or utilization dips. Nebius sits in the Neocloud Giants tier alongside CoreWeave, Lambda and Crusoe, and today's Q2 2026 print showed exactly why it's pulling away from the pack rather than getting lumped in with the 78 emerging players facing consolidation risk. Revenue hit $582 million, up 454% year over year, with annualized recurring revenue reaching $3.0 billion by the end of June, up 58% quarter over quarter. The company won four separate customer agreements each worth over $1 billion in total contract value and total contract value won during the quarter jumped 4x versus the prior period, a growth rate most of the smaller neoclouds on that chart simply can't match without hyperscaler grade balance sheets. Here's the vertical stack that sets Nebius apart from most names on that chart. Unlike pure GPU rental shops that lease space in someone else's data center, Nebius designs its own data centers, builds its own server racks and motherboards, procures its own compute, and runs a proprietary AI specific cloud platform layer on top of all of it. That full stack control, from silicon to software, is precisely what most of the emerging neoclouds in the chart's middle column lack, since converting a Bitcoin mining facility gives you power and cooling, but not in house rack engineering or a purpose built cloud software layer. Nebius has also been shifting from leased to owned infrastructure, with more than 75% of its contracted power now sitting at facilities it directly controls, up sharply from a mostly leased model just a year ago. That ownership shift is the difference between capturing margin over the long run versus being at the mercy of a landlord's lease terms, which is a structural advantage over neoclouds still renting third party space. Now for the pricing power piece. Nebius disclosed today that it's now charging $40-50 million per megawatt on new capacity deals, already signing its first one at that price this week, up from roughly $12 million per megawatt on its 2026 base contracts. Management also said it could sell its entire 2027 capacity right now on these terms but is deliberately holding some back for near term customer needs, a level of pricing leverage that tells you demand is outstripping supply for anyone offering real scale and reliability, exactly the customer profile the smaller, undercapitalized neoclouds struggle to attract. Nebius isn't a single product company either, which matters given how many names on that chart have no other legs to stand on if GPU rental margins compress. The company owns Avride, an autonomous driving and delivery robotics business with partnerships with Uber and Hyundai, TripleTen, a tech re skilling edtech platform and holds equity stakes in ClickHouse, the database company it spun out and recently backed in a funding round, and in Toloka, an AI data-labeling platform that sold a majority stake to Bezos Expeditions and Shopify in 2025. Those side businesses give Nebius optionality and diversified cash flow that a converted mining rig operator simply doesn't have. Bullish on Nebius, make sure to follow Melvin for more AI infrastructure insights, and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link below for more.

Melvin

37,428 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I came away from $ASTS earnings more bullish because the business is moving to actually building the network with revenue roughly doubling sequentially to $32M, backlog reaching ~$1.3B, 13 satellites now in orbit and production already extending through BlueBird 46. With more than $3.7B of liquidity, financing the first phase looks much less risky while the bigger execution question is how quickly ~$610M of quarterly capex can turn satellites, launches, manufacturing and gateways into a functioning commercial network. That spending is what eventually unlocks the model because AST is effectively building a cellular network before turning it on and if service launches on schedule then management’s path toward ~$1B of revenue in the first full year starts to look much more realistic..
0:48

I came away from $ASTS earnings more bullish because the business is moving to actually building the network with revenue roughly doubling sequentially to $32M, backlog reaching ~$1.3B, 13 satellites now in orbit and production already extending through BlueBird 46. With more than $3.7B of liquidity, financing the first phase looks much less risky while the bigger execution question is how quickly ~$610M of quarterly capex can turn satellites, launches, manufacturing and gateways into a functioning commercial network. That spending is what eventually unlocks the model because AST is effectively building a cellular network before turning it on and if service launches on schedule then management’s path toward ~$1B of revenue in the first full year starts to look much more realistic..

Shay Boloor

75,909 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Chamath Palihapitiya just dropped the number that explains the entire AI infrastructure trade (Save this). A gigawatt of compute now costs $100 billion and when he started his Arizona data center project it was $4 to $5 billion, it has gone up 20x in a single investment cycle. The implication is not just that AI infrastructure is expensive but rather that the capital barrier to owning meaningful compute has become so high that only a handful of entities in the world can actually build it and the companies who got there early are sitting on what may be the most durable pricing power in the history of the technology industry. This is the neocloud trade. The neocloud market, purpose-built GPU cloud providers like CoreWeave, Nebius, and Lambda Labs was worth $35 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $236 billion by 2031, compounding at 46% annually. For context, that is faster growth than cloud computing itself posted in its first decade. The reason is very simple, hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google are building for everything, storage, databases, enterprise software, networking and their GPU pricing reflects the overhead of that full-stack infrastructure. Neoclouds build for one thing only, AI compute. The result is a 60% to 85% cost advantage on the same Nvidia silicon, bare metal H100s at $0.78 to $2.79 per GPU-hour on a neocloud versus $3.43 to $5.07 per GPU-hour on a hyperscaler. That spread does not close as AI demand scales but rather it widens, because hyperscalers have to amortize legacy infrastructure and margin expectations that neoclouds do not carry. Gartner projects that by 2030, neoclouds will capture 20% of the $267 billion AI cloud market, and Vultr's own analysis says at least 80% of GPU market share by end of 2026 will be held by a small group of scaled neocloud providers. Now zoom into Nebius specifically, because it is the most interesting publicly traded proxy for this trade. Nebius is the infrastructure arm of the former Yandex Russia's equivalent of Google rebuilt from the ground up after Russia's invasion of Ukraine by Arkady Volozh and relisted on Nasdaq in October 2024. The team that built it already knew how to run internet-scale infrastructure at the lowest possible cost, which is exactly the operational DNA a neocloud requires. In Q1 2026, Nebius reported revenue of $399 million and already generating serious cash on a young business with revenue growing nearly eightfold year-over-year. Then in March 2026, Meta signed a five-year infrastructure agreement with Nebius worth up to $27 billion, $12 billion in committed dedicated GPU capacity deployments beginning early 2027, plus up to $15 billion more tied to Meta purchasing Nebius's unsold third-party capacity. The deal will be executed on one of the first large-scale deployments of Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, the next-generation architecture after Blackwell making Nebius one of a tiny number of operators in the world with confirmed priority access to the most advanced AI hardware available. Following the contract, Nebius guided to $7 to $9 billion in annualized recurring revenue for 2026 representing 540% year-over-year growth. Chamath Palihapitiya point about the $100 billion capital moat is the bear case for new entrants and the bull case for incumbents. No one can afford to build the next CoreWeave or Nebius from scratch at current hardware and power costs. The companies that are already built, already contracted, and already deploying Nvidia's latest silicon have a moat that compounds with every GPU generation cycle because they get allocations first, they deploy fastest, and their customers re-sign rather than wait for a new operator that does not yet exist. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, the complete neocloud competitive landscape, how to think about Nebius's valuation versus CoreWeave and AI entire thesis. Link below.
0:20

Chamath Palihapitiya just dropped the number that explains the entire AI infrastructure trade (Save this). A gigawatt of compute now costs $100 billion and when he started his Arizona data center project it was $4 to $5 billion, it has gone up 20x in a single investment cycle. The implication is not just that AI infrastructure is expensive but rather that the capital barrier to owning meaningful compute has become so high that only a handful of entities in the world can actually build it and the companies who got there early are sitting on what may be the most durable pricing power in the history of the technology industry. This is the neocloud trade. The neocloud market, purpose-built GPU cloud providers like CoreWeave, Nebius, and Lambda Labs was worth $35 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $236 billion by 2031, compounding at 46% annually. For context, that is faster growth than cloud computing itself posted in its first decade. The reason is very simple, hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google are building for everything, storage, databases, enterprise software, networking and their GPU pricing reflects the overhead of that full-stack infrastructure. Neoclouds build for one thing only, AI compute. The result is a 60% to 85% cost advantage on the same Nvidia silicon, bare metal H100s at $0.78 to $2.79 per GPU-hour on a neocloud versus $3.43 to $5.07 per GPU-hour on a hyperscaler. That spread does not close as AI demand scales but rather it widens, because hyperscalers have to amortize legacy infrastructure and margin expectations that neoclouds do not carry. Gartner projects that by 2030, neoclouds will capture 20% of the $267 billion AI cloud market, and Vultr's own analysis says at least 80% of GPU market share by end of 2026 will be held by a small group of scaled neocloud providers. Now zoom into Nebius specifically, because it is the most interesting publicly traded proxy for this trade. Nebius is the infrastructure arm of the former Yandex Russia's equivalent of Google rebuilt from the ground up after Russia's invasion of Ukraine by Arkady Volozh and relisted on Nasdaq in October 2024. The team that built it already knew how to run internet-scale infrastructure at the lowest possible cost, which is exactly the operational DNA a neocloud requires. In Q1 2026, Nebius reported revenue of $399 million and already generating serious cash on a young business with revenue growing nearly eightfold year-over-year. Then in March 2026, Meta signed a five-year infrastructure agreement with Nebius worth up to $27 billion, $12 billion in committed dedicated GPU capacity deployments beginning early 2027, plus up to $15 billion more tied to Meta purchasing Nebius's unsold third-party capacity. The deal will be executed on one of the first large-scale deployments of Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, the next-generation architecture after Blackwell making Nebius one of a tiny number of operators in the world with confirmed priority access to the most advanced AI hardware available. Following the contract, Nebius guided to $7 to $9 billion in annualized recurring revenue for 2026 representing 540% year-over-year growth. Chamath Palihapitiya point about the $100 billion capital moat is the bear case for new entrants and the bull case for incumbents. No one can afford to build the next CoreWeave or Nebius from scratch at current hardware and power costs. The companies that are already built, already contracted, and already deploying Nvidia's latest silicon have a moat that compounds with every GPU generation cycle because they get allocations first, they deploy fastest, and their customers re-sign rather than wait for a new operator that does not yet exist. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, the complete neocloud competitive landscape, how to think about Nebius's valuation versus CoreWeave and AI entire thesis. Link below.

Milk Road AI

139,047 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

How Accel's Matt Weigand (Matt Weigand) turned a $150M Nebius ($NBIS) PIPE into a 10-13X* 16 months ago, nebius was an unexpected deal for a venture fund. Matt led a PIPE anyway. It's now up 10-13X. Miles (Miles Clements): "Can I brag on Matt for a second? 'Cause he's not gonna brag on himself." › $150M invested ~16 months ago › Position up 10-13X today › $26B deal with Meta On the business: › Q1 2026 revenue $399M, up ~684% YoY › ~$46B in contracts with Meta ($27B) and Microsoft ($17B) › Nvidia committed $2B › Guiding to $7-9B ARR exit-2026 Why they built the position: a vertically integrated hyperscaler for the inference era, owning everything from the data center to the software layer. Matt on the buildout: "I still view it as we're inning one, and we're just getting going."
1:13

How Accel's Matt Weigand (Matt Weigand) turned a $150M Nebius ($NBIS) PIPE into a 10-13X* 16 months ago, nebius was an unexpected deal for a venture fund. Matt led a PIPE anyway. It's now up 10-13X. Miles (Miles Clements): "Can I brag on Matt for a second? 'Cause he's not gonna brag on himself." › $150M invested ~16 months ago › Position up 10-13X today › $26B deal with Meta On the business: › Q1 2026 revenue $399M, up ~684% YoY › ~$46B in contracts with Meta ($27B) and Microsoft ($17B) › Nvidia committed $2B › Guiding to $7-9B ARR exit-2026 Why they built the position: a vertically integrated hyperscaler for the inference era, owning everything from the data center to the software layer. Matt on the buildout: "I still view it as we're inning one, and we're just getting going."

Molly O’Shea

80,268 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Interview with Tom Blackwell, CCO @ $NBIS Also live on my YouTube channel. We discussed Nebius’ growth strategy, demand visibility, capacity expansion, financing, customer mix, monetization, profitability, guidance philosophy, and valuation framework. Small note: I’ve been trying to improve the podcast quality: new 4K webcam, better lighting, and even replacing my comfortable but squeaky gaming chair. Then I made the dumbest mistake possible. Because we pre-discussed the episode on Google Meet, Riverside picked up my webcam mic, so my audio is lower quality than usual and sounds a bit robotic after cleanup. Tom’s audio and answers are crisp though. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 02:55 Demand visibility and CapEx strategy 05:53 Long-term contracts vs short-term market risk 08:54 Financing strategy and debt 11:47 Customer segments and revenue split 14:55 Collaborations with major tech companies 17:56 Co-opetition in AI infrastructure 20:53 Capacity and revenue dynamics 23:59 Future capacity goals 26:50 Capacity monetization and pricing 29:49 Adjusted EBITDA and profitability 32:01 Site announcement strategy 34:55 Guidance philosophy and market expectations 37:15 Valuation framework 39:23 ARR as the key growth metric 40:40 Dreaming big: the future of Nebius 42:10 Closing thoughts
42:33

Interview with Tom Blackwell, CCO @ $NBIS Also live on my YouTube channel. We discussed Nebius’ growth strategy, demand visibility, capacity expansion, financing, customer mix, monetization, profitability, guidance philosophy, and valuation framework. Small note: I’ve been trying to improve the podcast quality: new 4K webcam, better lighting, and even replacing my comfortable but squeaky gaming chair. Then I made the dumbest mistake possible. Because we pre-discussed the episode on Google Meet, Riverside picked up my webcam mic, so my audio is lower quality than usual and sounds a bit robotic after cleanup. Tom’s audio and answers are crisp though. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 02:55 Demand visibility and CapEx strategy 05:53 Long-term contracts vs short-term market risk 08:54 Financing strategy and debt 11:47 Customer segments and revenue split 14:55 Collaborations with major tech companies 17:56 Co-opetition in AI infrastructure 20:53 Capacity and revenue dynamics 23:59 Future capacity goals 26:50 Capacity monetization and pricing 29:49 Adjusted EBITDA and profitability 32:01 Site announcement strategy 34:55 Guidance philosophy and market expectations 37:15 Valuation framework 39:23 ARR as the key growth metric 40:40 Dreaming big: the future of Nebius 42:10 Closing thoughts

Daniel Koss

31,164 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Nebius will be the first neocloud to hit $1 trillion dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). As dylan patel says Jensen Huang absolutely hates a world where the hyperscalers have all the power. A world where Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are the only ones building compute is a world where Nvidia is slowly being squeezed by a handful of customers all simultaneously developing custom chips to replace Nvidia GPUs entirely. Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Microsoft's Maia all exist for one reason, to cut Nvidia out of the stack and Jensen knows it so he is playing a long game most investors haven't registered yet. By funding NeoClouds and NeoLabs at scale, Jensen is deliberately engineering a multipolar compute world where no single hyperscaler can dictate terms and where Nvidia hardware remains the default infrastructure layer regardless of which model or platform ultimately wins. Nvidia has deployed roughly $40 billion in AI ecosystem investments across OpenAI, Anthropic, CoreWeave, Nebius, xAI, and dozens of infrastructure companies, all running almost exclusively on Nvidia chips, cementing GPU dependency across the entire AI stack.sedaily Every neocloud that survives and scales becomes a permanent Nvidia GPU customer structurally opposed to the hyperscalers building custom silicon expanding Nvidia's market while simultaneously weakening its biggest competitive threat. Dylan Patel described the neocloud ecosystem as throwing bait into the water and letting the best fish survive, warning that many heavily-backed teams will fail, but the ones that emerge will pull hundreds of millions in ARR right out of the gate. Nebius is that fish because it's the only neocloud operating at hyperscaler scale while remaining fully purpose-engineered for AI workloads from silicon to software. The numbers confirm Nebius has already cleared the survival bar that will eliminate most of the 200+ neoclouds competing right now. Revenue hit $399 million in Q1 2026, up 684% year-over-year, backed by $46 billion in contracted backlog, 3.5 GW of contracted power across seven site and a target of $7–$9 billion in annualized revenue by year-end. When Google approached neoclouds about deploying TPUs, Nebius said no, its Chief Revenue Officer noting that demand is 99% for Nvidia GPUs and that TPU interest comes almost entirely from former Google employees rather than the actual market. That alignment with Nvidia's ecosystem, at this scale, with this backlog, and this level of strategic backing is why Nebius sits in a category of one among the neocloud field. Patel framed the broader play correctly, every neocloud that survives makes Google's TPU and Amazon's Trainium structurally weaker simply by existing and five years from now, the winners will have reshaped the entire compute landscape in Nvidia's favor. Nebius is already hundreds of millions in ARR ahead of the competition while most of the field is still treading water. Milk Road subscribers are already up massively on the Nebius trade, and we are tracking the neocloud buildout as Nvidia works to reshape the entire compute market. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full Nebius breakdown, the valuation framework, the revenue targets we are watching, and the AI infrastructure names we like next for just $1. Link below!
2:12

Nebius will be the first neocloud to hit $1 trillion dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). As dylan patel says Jensen Huang absolutely hates a world where the hyperscalers have all the power. A world where Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are the only ones building compute is a world where Nvidia is slowly being squeezed by a handful of customers all simultaneously developing custom chips to replace Nvidia GPUs entirely. Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Microsoft's Maia all exist for one reason, to cut Nvidia out of the stack and Jensen knows it so he is playing a long game most investors haven't registered yet. By funding NeoClouds and NeoLabs at scale, Jensen is deliberately engineering a multipolar compute world where no single hyperscaler can dictate terms and where Nvidia hardware remains the default infrastructure layer regardless of which model or platform ultimately wins. Nvidia has deployed roughly $40 billion in AI ecosystem investments across OpenAI, Anthropic, CoreWeave, Nebius, xAI, and dozens of infrastructure companies, all running almost exclusively on Nvidia chips, cementing GPU dependency across the entire AI stack.sedaily Every neocloud that survives and scales becomes a permanent Nvidia GPU customer structurally opposed to the hyperscalers building custom silicon expanding Nvidia's market while simultaneously weakening its biggest competitive threat. Dylan Patel described the neocloud ecosystem as throwing bait into the water and letting the best fish survive, warning that many heavily-backed teams will fail, but the ones that emerge will pull hundreds of millions in ARR right out of the gate. Nebius is that fish because it's the only neocloud operating at hyperscaler scale while remaining fully purpose-engineered for AI workloads from silicon to software. The numbers confirm Nebius has already cleared the survival bar that will eliminate most of the 200+ neoclouds competing right now. Revenue hit $399 million in Q1 2026, up 684% year-over-year, backed by $46 billion in contracted backlog, 3.5 GW of contracted power across seven site and a target of $7–$9 billion in annualized revenue by year-end. When Google approached neoclouds about deploying TPUs, Nebius said no, its Chief Revenue Officer noting that demand is 99% for Nvidia GPUs and that TPU interest comes almost entirely from former Google employees rather than the actual market. That alignment with Nvidia's ecosystem, at this scale, with this backlog, and this level of strategic backing is why Nebius sits in a category of one among the neocloud field. Patel framed the broader play correctly, every neocloud that survives makes Google's TPU and Amazon's Trainium structurally weaker simply by existing and five years from now, the winners will have reshaped the entire compute landscape in Nvidia's favor. Nebius is already hundreds of millions in ARR ahead of the competition while most of the field is still treading water. Milk Road subscribers are already up massively on the Nebius trade, and we are tracking the neocloud buildout as Nvidia works to reshape the entire compute market. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full Nebius breakdown, the valuation framework, the revenue targets we are watching, and the AI infrastructure names we like next for just $1. Link below!

Milk Road AI

92,855 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$ORCL is borrowing aggressively to build AI data centers for a customer base heavily tied to OpenAI and the market is starting to question whether Oracle can fund that buildout without $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN or $META level cash generation. The upside is that OCI now has one of the largest AI backlogs in the market at ~$640B which gives Oracle a real shot at becoming the fourth major AI cloud platform if that demand converts into durable revenue. If cloud growth stays above 50% and customer prepayments ease the funding burden then this selloff could eventually look like the painful capital cycle before the harvest phase.
0:56

$ORCL is borrowing aggressively to build AI data centers for a customer base heavily tied to OpenAI and the market is starting to question whether Oracle can fund that buildout without $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN or $META level cash generation. The upside is that OCI now has one of the largest AI backlogs in the market at ~$640B which gives Oracle a real shot at becoming the fourth major AI cloud platform if that demand converts into durable revenue. If cloud growth stays above 50% and customer prepayments ease the funding burden then this selloff could eventually look like the painful capital cycle before the harvest phase.

Shay Boloor

132,000 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$NBIS MISSOURI DC COUNCIL MEETING VOTE UPDATE I watched this council meeting so you didn't have to. Here's the GOOD & BAD News... Nebius was mentioned several times in relation to a resolution put up to vote. This vote on Resolution 26002 passed 7-0. What was this vote about? The city of Independence MO voted tonight to approve an energy purchase agreement to support Nebius DC. This is a "power bridge" to cover the energy gap from June 2026 to October 2027, until construction of the new private power plant is complete. Later in the meeting, we also got more details on the Chapter 100 ordinances (essentially the buildout approval). The first reading is set for the second meeting in February. The second reading and final vote will be on March 2nd, per the Interim City Manager. The bad news is that this might take a bit longer than I had initially thought as $NBIS would likely not announce anything until the second reading approval (March 2nd) (or maybe until earnings, after the first reading if they're confident). The GOOD news: while this isn't the Chapter 100 approval yet, Nebius is specifically named in the bridge power resolution that passed. This increases confidence that this is a done deal (there's no reason for the city to approve the power and then block the DC buildout later) There were also some comments on noise, outstanding questions about buildout, and one council member wanted to have a townhall Q&A on Nebius. I've stitched the most interesting segments in the clip below.
10:51

$NBIS MISSOURI DC COUNCIL MEETING VOTE UPDATE I watched this council meeting so you didn't have to. Here's the GOOD & BAD News... Nebius was mentioned several times in relation to a resolution put up to vote. This vote on Resolution 26002 passed 7-0. What was this vote about? The city of Independence MO voted tonight to approve an energy purchase agreement to support Nebius DC. This is a "power bridge" to cover the energy gap from June 2026 to October 2027, until construction of the new private power plant is complete. Later in the meeting, we also got more details on the Chapter 100 ordinances (essentially the buildout approval). The first reading is set for the second meeting in February. The second reading and final vote will be on March 2nd, per the Interim City Manager. The bad news is that this might take a bit longer than I had initially thought as $NBIS would likely not announce anything until the second reading approval (March 2nd) (or maybe until earnings, after the first reading if they're confident). The GOOD news: while this isn't the Chapter 100 approval yet, Nebius is specifically named in the bridge power resolution that passed. This increases confidence that this is a done deal (there's no reason for the city to approve the power and then block the DC buildout later) There were also some comments on noise, outstanding questions about buildout, and one council member wanted to have a townhall Q&A on Nebius. I've stitched the most interesting segments in the clip below.

Tevis

49,581 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

The next two months put $IREN's entire pivot on one milestone. Horizon 1, its first GB300 super cluster at Childress, is targeted to hand off to $MSFT in Q3, roughly July through September, the opening delivery under the five year, $9.7 billion Microsoft contract and the point where that contract starts turning into revenue. For a year the company has been buying the hard things. Power, land, financing. Now it has to turn them into delivered compute. That is the whole test. "The world is structurally short compute, and the bottleneck is delivered data center and GPU capacity," said Daniel Roberts, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN. Horizon 1 is him putting that to the proof. Capacity nobody can energize is worthless. Capacity handed to a hyperscaler on schedule is the business. The rest of the window fills in around it. The Mirantis acquisition, signed in May, is pending close and adds the software layer to run the fleet. $3.1 billion of ARR sits under contract against a $4.4 billion target, so there is room for another customer, and management is openly chasing one. The $3.65 billion GPU financing that closed June 1 already funds most of the $MSFT hardware, with $NVDA and $DELL on the supply side. Sweetwater 1, energized in May, keeps ramping power behind all of it. The full year FY2026 results that put real numbers on all of this land just past the window, late August into September. The catalysts here are operational first, reported second. What makes that timeline credible is the record behind it. $IREN hit 50 EH/s on the schedule it set, energized Sweetwater 1 on schedule, and has Horizon 1-4 tracking for year-end. This is a team that keeps turning secured power into online capacity on time, and each build makes the next one faster. How many names in this AI buildout are actually delivering capacity on schedule, not just announcing it? It's not a sprint, it's a marathon.
0:31

The next two months put $IREN's entire pivot on one milestone. Horizon 1, its first GB300 super cluster at Childress, is targeted to hand off to $MSFT in Q3, roughly July through September, the opening delivery under the five year, $9.7 billion Microsoft contract and the point where that contract starts turning into revenue. For a year the company has been buying the hard things. Power, land, financing. Now it has to turn them into delivered compute. That is the whole test. "The world is structurally short compute, and the bottleneck is delivered data center and GPU capacity," said Daniel Roberts, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN. Horizon 1 is him putting that to the proof. Capacity nobody can energize is worthless. Capacity handed to a hyperscaler on schedule is the business. The rest of the window fills in around it. The Mirantis acquisition, signed in May, is pending close and adds the software layer to run the fleet. $3.1 billion of ARR sits under contract against a $4.4 billion target, so there is room for another customer, and management is openly chasing one. The $3.65 billion GPU financing that closed June 1 already funds most of the $MSFT hardware, with $NVDA and $DELL on the supply side. Sweetwater 1, energized in May, keeps ramping power behind all of it. The full year FY2026 results that put real numbers on all of this land just past the window, late August into September. The catalysts here are operational first, reported second. What makes that timeline credible is the record behind it. $IREN hit 50 EH/s on the schedule it set, energized Sweetwater 1 on schedule, and has Horizon 1-4 tracking for year-end. This is a team that keeps turning secured power into online capacity on time, and each build makes the next one faster. How many names in this AI buildout are actually delivering capacity on schedule, not just announcing it? It's not a sprint, it's a marathon.

Patient Investor

105,170 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten