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Neil on open source v. frontier models: "The labs pay an immense premium to be 3-6 months ahead of everything else. I think that's probably still worth it. But I don't know that the premium is going to last that long. If you look at enterprise deployments, they don't... move at three to six month speed. A lot of enterprises are probably still on Opus 4.6 or Opus 4.7. I don't think there's any way to call a winner in this race, and certainly I don't even think this is a race that can be decided ever. It's a continual process. I don't think open source ever goes away. If there's a vacuum because one leader steps out, a new leader will step in. It just gets easier every day to train a frontier class model."show more

Patrick OShaughnessy

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32,180 次观看 • 17 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

dnap

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Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

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🇺🇸TUCKER: IF I WERE PRESIDENT, I'D PULL OUT OF NATO IMMEDIATELY "Look, the thing that Russia wants, and I think probably has a right to, is not to have NATO missiles on its border. I don't know why we would do that or what we get out of it. I just don't even understand it. I don't understand the purpose of NATO. I don't think NATO is good for the United States. I think it's an attack on our sovereignty. I would pull out of NATO immediately if I were the U.S president because I don't think it helps the U.S. I know a lot of people are getting their bread buttered by NATO." Source: Lex Fridman Podcast

🇺🇸TUCKER: IF I WERE PRESIDENT, I'D PULL OUT OF NATO IMMEDIATELY "Look, the thing that Russia wants, and I think probably has a right to, is not to have NATO missiles on its border. I don't know why we would do that or what we get out of it. I just don't even understand it. I don't understand the purpose of NATO. I don't think NATO is good for the United States. I think it's an attack on our sovereignty. I would pull out of NATO immediately if I were the U.S president because I don't think it helps the U.S. I know a lot of people are getting their bread buttered by NATO." Source: Lex Fridman Podcast

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😼🔮💵📈 $GME “Now it's all about the transformation and that cash pile is growing, it seems to be growing, will they raise more money? We'll see, I don't know - I see it. But...if people, if you just change one factor and that's that you don't think Ryan Cohen is a doofus, alright? If you don't think he's a doofus and he's not a fool, if you don't think that - and all of a sudden, suddenly they're sitting on billions of dollars in cash, and you actually think not only is he not a doofus but - he's extremely talented in that he has the capability to turn this around, even if you don't agree with that, even if you don't believe it, that's fine, if you just pause for a moment and think about that - I think it really changes your mindset so that becomes the bet - that becomes the bet.”

😼🔮💵📈 $GME “Now it's all about the transformation and that cash pile is growing, it seems to be growing, will they raise more money? We'll see, I don't know - I see it. But...if people, if you just change one factor and that's that you don't think Ryan Cohen is a doofus, alright? If you don't think he's a doofus and he's not a fool, if you don't think that - and all of a sudden, suddenly they're sitting on billions of dollars in cash, and you actually think not only is he not a doofus but - he's extremely talented in that he has the capability to turn this around, even if you don't agree with that, even if you don't believe it, that's fine, if you just pause for a moment and think about that - I think it really changes your mindset so that becomes the bet - that becomes the bet.”

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Nakisa Badarian on the possibility of Jon Jones getting out of his contact to fight Francis Ngannou: I don't think it's very realistic because I don't think Dana is going to allow that to happen...cause they know it will be the biggest fight that can happen at the Heavyweight division in a very long time.

Nakisa Badarian on the possibility of Jon Jones getting out of his contact to fight Francis Ngannou: I don't think it's very realistic because I don't think Dana is going to allow that to happen...cause they know it will be the biggest fight that can happen at the Heavyweight division in a very long time.

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Gavin Baker says the future for the world's biggest companies is open models and private context: "I think the future is an ensemble of models. There's a Pareto curve. No one model is going to be the best at everything." "For the global 1,000 biggest companies, you're going to take whatever the best open-source model is. I think probably in the very near future, that's going to be an Nvidia model." "Everybody says 'Well, in a world where open-source wins, who funds the training?' Chip companies can fund the training." "It's trivial to do a $50 to $100 billion training run for Jensen, but I do think you're going to see American open-source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier." "Sharing your own enterprise context, that's truly your IP, that's truly the value of your company, the context embedded in all of your data, sharing that with a frontier lab may be hazardous for your financial health." "I think what you'll see these companies do is they'll have their own model on their data, and it will work with one or two other frontier models, checking each other... I think that feels like a very likely future to me." Gavin Baker David George

Gavin Baker says the future for the world's biggest companies is open models and private context: "I think the future is an ensemble of models. There's a Pareto curve. No one model is going to be the best at everything." "For the global 1,000 biggest companies, you're going to take whatever the best open-source model is. I think probably in the very near future, that's going to be an Nvidia model." "Everybody says 'Well, in a world where open-source wins, who funds the training?' Chip companies can fund the training." "It's trivial to do a $50 to $100 billion training run for Jensen, but I do think you're going to see American open-source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier." "Sharing your own enterprise context, that's truly your IP, that's truly the value of your company, the context embedded in all of your data, sharing that with a frontier lab may be hazardous for your financial health." "I think what you'll see these companies do is they'll have their own model on their data, and it will work with one or two other frontier models, checking each other... I think that feels like a very likely future to me." Gavin Baker David George

a16z

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Ex-pornstar Phoenix Marie discusses why she doesn't believe in staying with one partner: “Can you be happy with one person for the rest of your life?” “I feel like you're going to probably need to discuss the open relationship or at least the hall pass at least one point in a relationship.” “I don't think that we're meant for monogamy.” “I don't think I could do a monogamous relationship.” “I don't know if it's natural. I don't know if it's like an embedded thing.” “You grow up watching Disney movies... and we get this idea in the head.” “Are we trained to be like that?” “I think we're trained.” “All these feelings we have towards jealousy and relationships... these are things that are taught to us.” “There's all these stigmas around if you want to have an open relationship you're bad... it's going to fail.”

Ex-pornstar Phoenix Marie discusses why she doesn't believe in staying with one partner: “Can you be happy with one person for the rest of your life?” “I feel like you're going to probably need to discuss the open relationship or at least the hall pass at least one point in a relationship.” “I don't think that we're meant for monogamy.” “I don't think I could do a monogamous relationship.” “I don't know if it's natural. I don't know if it's like an embedded thing.” “You grow up watching Disney movies... and we get this idea in the head.” “Are we trained to be like that?” “I think we're trained.” “All these feelings we have towards jealousy and relationships... these are things that are taught to us.” “There's all these stigmas around if you want to have an open relationship you're bad... it's going to fail.”

The Jedi M@n 🧑‍🦯

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Spike believes there is an urgency to win a Super Bowl for the Eagles this year. "I don't think it can be a transition year. I think it has to be a year where the only result that feels like a success is the Super Bowl because I just don't know how long this era of players and coaches will be here."

Spike believes there is an urgency to win a Super Bowl for the Eagles this year. "I don't think it can be a transition year. I think it has to be a year where the only result that feels like a success is the Super Bowl because I just don't know how long this era of players and coaches will be here."

SPORTSRADIO 94WIP

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Mark Cuban: OpenAI is shitting away their money. They'll never get a return on that trillion dollar spend. "There's a lot of FUD being put out about the spending. We're going to spend a trillion dollars because we need all this data center capacity. Well, the data center, the ability to process is going to get faster, cheaper" "I think a lot of the numbers that they're throwing out there aren't going to come to fruition, which is why I say they're full of shit" "We don't know if the business of foundational models is going to be like the streaming industry where there's one leader and a bunch of players that make money, or some that make money at least, or search where there's effectively one company" "So they need to raise all the money, go all in and spend everything they can, kiss all the rings around the world in hopes of being the one" "It's going to be very difficult, but I don't think it's going to pay off the way they expect" "They're pissing away the money at scale. It's hard to do, right? But if you don't go all in like that, you can't keep on raising money."

Mark Cuban: OpenAI is shitting away their money. They'll never get a return on that trillion dollar spend. "There's a lot of FUD being put out about the spending. We're going to spend a trillion dollars because we need all this data center capacity. Well, the data center, the ability to process is going to get faster, cheaper" "I think a lot of the numbers that they're throwing out there aren't going to come to fruition, which is why I say they're full of shit" "We don't know if the business of foundational models is going to be like the streaming industry where there's one leader and a bunch of players that make money, or some that make money at least, or search where there's effectively one company" "So they need to raise all the money, go all in and spend everything they can, kiss all the rings around the world in hopes of being the one" "It's going to be very difficult, but I don't think it's going to pay off the way they expect" "They're pissing away the money at scale. It's hard to do, right? But if you don't go all in like that, you can't keep on raising money."

Brad

92,187 次观看 • 2 个月前

I don't think there's a single franchise out there that has been as consistently mishandled as Halo. Like it gets to a point that it's almost impressive in a way, if it weren't so sad. It sucks to see the trend setter become the trend chaser, losing it's identity and just trying to be whatever is popular at the time. I don't think we'll ever get this back again. There really is something to be said for series like Dark Souls that know when to end.

I don't think there's a single franchise out there that has been as consistently mishandled as Halo. Like it gets to a point that it's almost impressive in a way, if it weren't so sad. It sucks to see the trend setter become the trend chaser, losing it's identity and just trying to be whatever is popular at the time. I don't think we'll ever get this back again. There really is something to be said for series like Dark Souls that know when to end.

🎮𝙆𝙖𝙞𝙮𝙖🎮

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Tillman on why Bitcoin's critical mass is nearly impossible to replicate today "Well, I have a thesis, and I don't think it can be argued. I don't think Bitcoin would survive if it started right now." "The age of AI, and a proof of work network, and the susceptibility to a brute force attack at the 51% mark, I think the critical mass point that you need to get to is almost not achievable with the technology we have now. I think that's days old." "I think Bitcoin's going to be enshrined in that regard. I don't think that it's going to lose its place. I think it's only going to gain market share in that regard." "Largest proof of work network ever created, and it's the largest network in the entire world. And that is valuable in and of itself." "You talk about use case, talk about value proposition. That's valuable whether you see it or you don't. You're going to use it at some point."

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David Sacks: Anthropic Wants to Ban Open Source AI in America Listen to All-In to stay a few weeks (or months) ahead of everyone else David Sacks back in May: “I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models. There's a lot of breadcrumbs leading here. You look at a lot of the rhetoric around how models need to have guardrails, and that with open source models, the guardrails can be removed and therefore they're dangerous. You see this rhetoric already in Anthropic's blog posts. Any threat that they describe, they kind of go out of their way to take that shot at open source models. They're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.”

David Sacks: Anthropic Wants to Ban Open Source AI in America Listen to All-In to stay a few weeks (or months) ahead of everyone else David Sacks back in May: “I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models. There's a lot of breadcrumbs leading here. You look at a lot of the rhetoric around how models need to have guardrails, and that with open source models, the guardrails can be removed and therefore they're dangerous. You see this rhetoric already in Anthropic's blog posts. Any threat that they describe, they kind of go out of their way to take that shot at open source models. They're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.”

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JD Vance on China and AI: I'm not sure many Americans have a good understanding of how the Chinese actually think about AI. I think there's a part of Xi's inner circle that probably just wants to dominate the AI arms race. I actually think there is a part of Xi's inner circle that says, "We don't want to lose to the United States, but we don't want to win either." They're, I think, a little freaked out by it, is what I'm saying. Source: The Michael Knowles Show

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Trump says to Zelensky's face: "I don't think you'd be a tough guy without the United States...you're either going to make a deal or we're out. And if we're out, you'll fight it out. I don't think it's going to be pretty, but you'll fight it out." "But you're not acting at all thankful, and that's not a nice thing." "This is going to be great television, I will say that."

Ken Klippenstein

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Baier: They get $500,000 a person. I mean, you don't think that they are going to vote to break away? Foreign Minister Rasmussen: No, not at all. I don't think there is any way that the U.S. will pay for the Scandinavian welfare system in Greenland

Baier: They get $500,000 a person. I mean, you don't think that they are going to vote to break away? Foreign Minister Rasmussen: No, not at all. I don't think there is any way that the U.S. will pay for the Scandinavian welfare system in Greenland

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The Mets are looser, more relaxed, and playing better baseball since Mendoza left. But one question remains... "It feels like this team is still desperately looking for a leader, and I don't think that leader is Francisco Lindor. I don't think that leader is Juan Soto. I think that's OK."

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