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Netanyahu's Strategic Errors May Force the US into a Risky Precipitous Action In June, Israeli intelligence managed to execute a successful operation against Iranian air defenses, targeting key military leaders and assassinating scientists. But the success was confined to intelligence efforts, as the military action fell short in strategic...

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On سكاي نيوز عربية: If Islamist #Iran regime thinks it can beat Israel through a war of attrition, it is in for a surprise. - The military performance of Islamist regime against #Israel is the weakest in the history of this conflict. Even in six days of war in 1967, which the Arabs call defeat, the Arabs downed 46 Israeli fighter jets, destroyed 400 tanks, and killed close to 1,000 troops. Iran has barely downed a few Israeli drones. - The performance of Hamas and Hezbollah was more threatening to Israel than Iran. Hamas fired 600 missiles a day on Israel and, because of proximity, forced more Israelis, in more cities, to take shelter, for a longer time and so did Hezbollah. Iran has now changed its tactic, from four waves of 50 missiles each, a day, to a trickle of 3 to 4 missiles every hour or so, hoping to send the Israelis to shelters the longest time possible. Iran has already downgraded its war from slapping Israel to poking it. - Iran has only one tool in its arsenal: Throwing missiles from afar. Iran has no Air Force, distance makes ground battles impossible, and that's that. While Iran pokes, Israel will be eroding Iranian nuclear and military capabilities to near complete destruction. Finally, when the dust of battle settles, the regime will be licking its wounds and Israel will be victorious. Yet the Islamist regime will claim "divine victory." This is the same delusion that got the rulers of Iran to where they are in the first place. Iranian interests will be best served if Tehran renormalizes ties with Jerusalem.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain

42,441 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨🇮🇷🇨🇳If America Can’t Handle Iranian Missiles, It’s Not Ready for China In just the first 16 days of war against Iran, the United States expended nearly 40% of its THAAD interceptors. If America’s most advanced air defenses are struggling against Iran—a regional power with a fraction of China’s capabilities—there is no plausible scenario in which the US is ready for a showdown with Beijing. The Chinese Arsenal The People’s Liberation Army operates the world’s largest missile inventory, backed by a rapid-action doctrine designed to dismantle U.S. bases and infrastructure in the early stages of conflict. Unlike Iran’s Kheibar Shikan and Sejjil missiles, China’s DF-27 anti-ship ballistic missile and DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle offer advanced mid-air maneuverability and sustained hypersonic speeds. With an estimated range of 8,000 kilometers, the DF-27 places U.S. naval installations at Pearl Harbor and Everett, Washington within striking distance—allowing China to threaten American assets without deploying a single ship. Strategic Implications According to Dr. Andrew Erickson of the US Naval War College, China is the first nation to operationalize an armed ICBM. These capabilities could cripple U.S. operational effectiveness across East Asia and complicate the defense of American interests in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines in the event of armed conflict. Depleted Defenses Even as Patriot and THAAD struggle against less sophisticated Iranian missiles, Western analysts warn that a large-scale Chinese attack could overwhelm U.S. defenses by depleting interceptor inventories entirely. With THAAD replenishment not expected until April 2027, the fragility of current stockpiles is increasingly difficult to ignore. The Central Question If US air defenses are depleted in the Middle East after just over two weeks of fighting Iran, how will they withstand a Chinese arsenal that dwarfs Iran’s—particularly when the DF-27 can already reach American soil?

NewRulesGeopolitics

137,137 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸Iran or US: Who will win missile war or attrition? Russian military expert, historian of the Air Defense Forces Yuri Knutov explains: 💬 "If we look at the numbers being cited, Iran is said to have between 2,000 and 4,000 missiles. At a launch rate of around 100 or more per day, that would suggest roughly a month of sustained high-intensity missile attacks. As for THAAD interceptors, about 650 have been produced in total, with 150 used during a previous attack. That would leave roughly 400 remaining, possibly fewer. With careful and efficient use, that stock could last around 10 days — perhaps as little as five. If we’re talking about Patriot missiles, the US stockpile is larger, of course, but it can be depleted as well. Especially if they launch 10 missiles against a single Iranian ballistic missile, then they would have enough for three weeks, and that's with a very, very large margin. 👉 So Iran has a very important trump card right now. And if it uses its missiles correctly, saving its most technologically advanced ones, the hypersonic Fattahs, for the final stage—and the Fattahs are not intercepted at all by Israeli Arrow-3 missiles, nor by American THAAD and Patriot systems—then Iran essentially has a chance to land a very painful blow on Israel and the US. And in that way, essentially, to take revenge for the surprise attack carried out on Iran. [The US] produces around 55 interceptors per month, which is not enough to rapidly replenish heavy battlefield usage. New production facilities are under construction in Germany and Romania, but they are not yet operational. While some missiles could potentially be sourced from Arab states, yet Arab countries are using these missiles too. That’s why I say that given this intensity, this missile use can endure from two to three weeks, four weeks tops. But we don’t know the situation in Iran. It’s possible Iran has underground plants where ballistic missiles are produced as well."

Sputnik

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