+++NEW ANALYSIS: China’s CO2 emissions have now caused more global warming than EU+++ Our new analysis comes as the "principle of historical responsibility" is being cited in #COP29 talks on a new climate finance goal THREAD with details, caveats + bonus chart 1/12

When the 1992 UN climate convention was agreed – and developed vs developing lines were drawn – China's cumulative CO2 was much less than half of EU27; it was still only 80% of EU at time of 2015 Paris deal But as of 2023, China's historic CO2 has overtaken the EU 2/12

While China's emissions have now overtaken the EU27, they remain far behind those of the US, which has made the biggest contribution to global warming by far The US total is two-thirds higher than China's (& 76% above EU27) 3/12

With China's annual CO2 output now ~2x that of the US, you might think it would be on track to overtake the US in terms of historical emissions… …but its emissions are set to decline rapidly over the coming decades, says IEA [emissions post-2050 based on 10yr trend] 4/12

So China's cumulative emissions are unlikely to ever overtake the US, based on current policy settings and trends (And that's even before you consider the emissions-boosting policies planned by the incoming Trump presidency) 5/12

While China's cumulative CO2 has now overtaken the EU27, it's worth adding that it remains far behind EU (or US levels) on a per-capita basis 6/12

Additionally, when taking into account CO2 embedded in imported goods – or overseas emissions under colonial rule – the EU27 would remain ahead of China (for now) 7/12

LONG VIEW In the 1992 UN climate convention, countries are divided into (mostly developed, climate finance donors) "Annex I" parties vs (mostly developing, recipients) "non-Annex I" The text says that developed countries are responsible for the "largest share" of historical emissions 8/12

BONUS CHART At the time, Annex I (mostly developed) countries) were 61% of cumulative emissions vs only 22% of world population Now they are 52% of cumulative CO2 – and non-Annex I (developing nations) are set to overtake them in ~6yrs, based on current emissions 9/12

NCQG INTRIGUE Our new analysis comes are parties at #COP29 attempt to agree a new climate finance goal (NCQG), inc who should pay and how much Ideas on the table include splitting the bill ("burden sharing") between developed countries, based on cumulative emissions… 10/12

Another option on the table for the NCQG would bring in new climate finance donors ("broadening the donor base") according to calculations on various combinations of countries' cumulative emissions, cumulative per capita emissions and wealth (I gather this second option is unlikely to fly) 11/12

Many thanks to my colleagues, especially: Verner for more indispensable data wrangling Joe for great charts / animation Leo for edits 12/12