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NEW POLLING FOR WALES Senedd voting intention: Plaid 30% Reform 25% Labour 18% Conservatives 13% Lib Dem 7% Green 5% Other 2% What's most interesting is that Labour voters are going to Plaid and Tory voters are going to Reform. Make you wonder why Labour are so obsessed combating... show more

Will Hayward

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42,600 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce •via X (Twitter)

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What would this mean in terms of seats? Modelling indicates: - Plaid Cymru would emerge as the largest party with approximately 35 seats -Followed closely by Reform UK with 30 seats - Labour would secure 19 - The Conservatives would hold 9 - The Liberal Democrats 3

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Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre said: “This poll represents a substantial shift from previous Welsh polls and as always carries the health warnings of a single poll. However, the results support a broader pattern emerging throughout the UK—both Labour and Conservative parties are experiencing substantial erosion of support, though flowing in different directions, resulting in a newly fragmented four-party political landscape in Wales. "For the Conservatives, these results represent one of their poorest showings in Welsh polling over the past two decades. These figures suggest Reform UK is positioned to establish itself as the predominant right-of-centre party appealing to the British-identifying bloc of the Welsh electorate. "For Labour, the evidence parallels trends seen in England—they are not primarily losing former supporters to Reform UK, but instead experiencing more substantial defections to other progressive parties. In the Welsh context, Plaid Cymru emerges as the principal beneficiary, currently enjoying some of their strongest historical polling numbers."

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If you like political news and analysis about Wales please consider signing up to my news letter (see pinned post).

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The 12 Democrats who make the most sense for 2028.

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Never thought I'd see a poll like this for @Plaid_Cymru & Wales.🥲 And most incredible thing? PC get 1% of coverage of Ref/Lab on media ppl consume. 1% of income - last Plaid conference members literally passing buckets around to raise ££! And yet - ideas & people matter. Ymlaen

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Richard Taylor1 yıl önce

I predict Reform will change the political landscape in Wales.

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Michael Jones1 yıl önce

I’m not a nationalist, but I’m voting Plaid. I’ll never vote Labour again and don’t trust Farage one bit. There is no other viable option for me.

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David Lewis1 yıl önce

It's so hard to believe that Welsh people would consider voting for the far right, privately owned, English, Reform Company. Our parents and grandparents suffered to stop fascism taking over here and across Europe. Let's not welcome fascism in through the ballot box!

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ivor1 yıl önce

Early days but I strongly believe Reform will just snowball and sweep up Wales, University towns will more likely vote Plaid/Labour/Hamas but no one I’ve spoken with would ever vote Labour again and not even considering Plaid.

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👇🏼

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Reform were only created a few months ago, yet already stand at 25%🤔

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A huge poll has just dropped in Welsh Politics. The poll from YouGov/Cardiff University suggests votes in the Senedd election will be: - Plaid Cymru - 33% - Reform UK - 30% - Labour - 10% - Conservatives - 10% - Green - 9% - Lib Dem - 6% In terms of seats it would mean: Plaid Cymru - 39 Reform UK - 34 Labour - 10 Conservatives - 6 Green - 4 Lib Dem - 3 This is absolutely damning for Labour. For detailed analysis check out the full break down in my news letter (see pinned tweet)

A huge poll has just dropped in Welsh Politics. The poll from YouGov/Cardiff University suggests votes in the Senedd election will be: - Plaid Cymru - 33% - Reform UK - 30% - Labour - 10% - Conservatives - 10% - Green - 9% - Lib Dem - 6% In terms of seats it would mean: Plaid Cymru - 39 Reform UK - 34 Labour - 10 Conservatives - 6 Green - 4 Lib Dem - 3 This is absolutely damning for Labour. For detailed analysis check out the full break down in my news letter (see pinned tweet)

Will Hayward

143,369 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

A new poll has just dropped for Wales and it is fascinating. First Minister Eluned Morgan is expected to lose her seat while Reform have increased their vote share compared to previous polls. Plaid will be the largest party and, alongside the Greens, would command a majority in the Senedd. The Lib Dems would be totally wiped out under these results and the Welsh Tories would be down to just one MS. Let’s break down the details… This poll is by YouGov for ITV Wales in partnership with Cardiff University and has applied the latest MRP modelling to offer a predicted breakdown of how many seats each party will win in each of the 16 new constituencies. This is the breakdown of the vote percentage and how much it has changed compared to the last poll: Senedd voting intention: Plaid Cymru - 33 (-4) Reform UK - 27 (+4) Welsh Labour - 13 (+3) Wales Green Party - 12 (-1) Welsh Conservatives - 7 (-3) Welsh Liberal Democrats - 5 (n/c) What would this mean in terms of seats? In terms of the 96 seats in the Senedd these results would leave the new Welsh Parliament like this: Plaid Cymru - 43 seats Reform UK - 30 Welsh Labour - 12 Wales Green Party - 10 Welsh Conservatives - 1

A new poll has just dropped for Wales and it is fascinating. First Minister Eluned Morgan is expected to lose her seat while Reform have increased their vote share compared to previous polls. Plaid will be the largest party and, alongside the Greens, would command a majority in the Senedd. The Lib Dems would be totally wiped out under these results and the Welsh Tories would be down to just one MS. Let’s break down the details… This poll is by YouGov for ITV Wales in partnership with Cardiff University and has applied the latest MRP modelling to offer a predicted breakdown of how many seats each party will win in each of the 16 new constituencies. This is the breakdown of the vote percentage and how much it has changed compared to the last poll: Senedd voting intention: Plaid Cymru - 33 (-4) Reform UK - 27 (+4) Welsh Labour - 13 (+3) Wales Green Party - 12 (-1) Welsh Conservatives - 7 (-3) Welsh Liberal Democrats - 5 (n/c) What would this mean in terms of seats? In terms of the 96 seats in the Senedd these results would leave the new Welsh Parliament like this: Plaid Cymru - 43 seats Reform UK - 30 Welsh Labour - 12 Wales Green Party - 10 Welsh Conservatives - 1

Will Hayward

20,030 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

New polling in Wales put Reform level with Welsh Labour. Of course many will focus on Reform but I think the big story is that Plaid Cymru are polling in 1st. A Welsh nationalist party (equivalent of the SNP in Scotland) is polling ahead of Labour for the 1st time since 2010.

New polling in Wales put Reform level with Welsh Labour. Of course many will focus on Reform but I think the big story is that Plaid Cymru are polling in 1st. A Welsh nationalist party (equivalent of the SNP in Scotland) is polling ahead of Labour for the 1st time since 2010.

Will Hayward

62,118 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

'Were you shocked Plaid Cymru took it? Are you disappointed by that? Is this a worry for you?' Kate Garraway asks Reform Party Chairman Dr David Bull after Reform gains ground in Wales overnight as Labour loses the Caerphilly by-election. Reform came second, beating Labour by more than 10,000 votes.

'Were you shocked Plaid Cymru took it? Are you disappointed by that? Is this a worry for you?' Kate Garraway asks Reform Party Chairman Dr David Bull after Reform gains ground in Wales overnight as Labour loses the Caerphilly by-election. Reform came second, beating Labour by more than 10,000 votes.

Good Morning Britain

28,641 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Plaid Cymru Senedd member Sioned Williams AS/MS attacks both the Conservatives AND Labour for being too tough on illegal migration. She claims it undermines attempts to make Wales a Nation of Sanctuary, in which asylum seekers' rights to access public services should be "expanded not limited". So irresponsible. The cost to Welsh taxpayers will be considerable. As we said, Plaid are even worse on this than Labour.

Plaid Cymru Senedd member Sioned Williams AS/MS attacks both the Conservatives AND Labour for being too tough on illegal migration. She claims it undermines attempts to make Wales a Nation of Sanctuary, in which asylum seekers' rights to access public services should be "expanded not limited". So irresponsible. The cost to Welsh taxpayers will be considerable. As we said, Plaid are even worse on this than Labour.

DOGE Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿💰

85,407 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Your two Labour Governments are working together to build a stronger Wales within a changed UK 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid Cymru is gambling with our future, pushing for independence and the chaos and uncertainty it would bring.

Your two Labour Governments are working together to build a stronger Wales within a changed UK 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid Cymru is gambling with our future, pushing for independence and the chaos and uncertainty it would bring.

Jo Stevens

21,331 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Out again in Caerphilly with the brilliant Lee Anderson MP and our Reform candidate Llŷr Powell MS 💪🏼The overwhelming response on the doorstep was that the people of Caerphilly are voting Reform UK 🥀 After 26 years of failure by Labour, propped up by the separatists Plaid, it is clear that Caerphilly has had enough. 🗳️ Vote LLŶR POWELL Reform UK Wales Cymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 on October 23!

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Out again in Caerphilly with the brilliant Lee Anderson MP and our Reform candidate Llŷr Powell MS 💪🏼The overwhelming response on the doorstep was that the people of Caerphilly are voting Reform UK 🥀 After 26 years of failure by Labour, propped up by the separatists Plaid, it is clear that Caerphilly has had enough. 🗳️ Vote LLŶR POWELL Reform UK Wales Cymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 on October 23!

Laura Anne Jones MS

49,278 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

NEW POLLING FOR WALES - Reform are forecast 1 more seat than Plaid - Labour well down in 3rd place - Plaid still best placed to form the next Welsh Gov - First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat - Tories would be on just 3 seats and lose leader. Full analysis here:

NEW POLLING FOR WALES - Reform are forecast 1 more seat than Plaid - Labour well down in 3rd place - Plaid still best placed to form the next Welsh Gov - First Minister Eluned Morgan would lose her seat - Tories would be on just 3 seats and lose leader. Full analysis here:

Will Hayward

31,696 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

❗️The Supreme Court decided what the definition of a woman is 5 months ago. ⁉️Labour still can’t make their mind up in Cardiff Bay on what a women is, or how to adapt their polices to comply with the Law. Reform UK will continue to push hard for a Wales that is safe for women and girls. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 #WalesneedsReform Reform UK Wales Wales-Women’s Rights Network 💜🤍💚🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Merched Cymru

❗️The Supreme Court decided what the definition of a woman is 5 months ago. ⁉️Labour still can’t make their mind up in Cardiff Bay on what a women is, or how to adapt their polices to comply with the Law. Reform UK will continue to push hard for a Wales that is safe for women and girls. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 #WalesneedsReform Reform UK Wales Wales-Women’s Rights Network 💜🤍💚🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Merched Cymru

Laura Anne Jones MS

26,323 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Reform UK has a big problem in Wales. It's going to be really hard for them to grow because they are very unpopular with three groups in Wales: 1. Women (who make up 51% of voters) 2. People who feel more Welsh than British (the single largest identity group in Cymru) 3. Young people. While a narrative has grown up around the idea that young men really like Farage. The data suggests this really isn't the case in Wales as only 10% of young people voted for the party.

Reform UK has a big problem in Wales. It's going to be really hard for them to grow because they are very unpopular with three groups in Wales: 1. Women (who make up 51% of voters) 2. People who feel more Welsh than British (the single largest identity group in Cymru) 3. Young people. While a narrative has grown up around the idea that young men really like Farage. The data suggests this really isn't the case in Wales as only 10% of young people voted for the party.

Will Hayward

41,319 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🆔 The FM strongly committed herself and Labour to ID cards today, so I asked for a statement/debate in the Senedd, where she can answer questions on her position. ‼️ Another shocking response from a Labour Minister- “I have no time for your question” (.. on Digital ID, because I’m a Reform MS) ⁉️ Appalling. How long are they going to play this game. The people of Wales see this childish behaviour. It’s time for the adults to take charge. It’s time for Reform UK #SeneddElections #Runningscared #Undemocratic #Shameful #DigitalID Reform UK Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 #SayNoToDigitalID Have a listen .. 👂🏻 ⬇️

🆔 The FM strongly committed herself and Labour to ID cards today, so I asked for a statement/debate in the Senedd, where she can answer questions on her position. ‼️ Another shocking response from a Labour Minister- “I have no time for your question” (.. on Digital ID, because I’m a Reform MS) ⁉️ Appalling. How long are they going to play this game. The people of Wales see this childish behaviour. It’s time for the adults to take charge. It’s time for Reform UK #SeneddElections #Runningscared #Undemocratic #Shameful #DigitalID Reform UK Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 #SayNoToDigitalID Have a listen .. 👂🏻 ⬇️

Laura Anne Jones MS

69,748 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

🗣💥NEW: 'I think Nigel Farage is a grifter. Unionist politicians fanboying him. He's a clickbait politician. He won’t be Prime Minister.' 🚫Alliance Party Leader Naomi Long MLA tells Chief Reporter James that she believes Nigel Farage is not a serious politician and will not become Prime Minister. She was asked whether she could work with the Reform UK leader, and what that could mean for Northern Ireland. Reform UK has made major gains at the expense of Labour in the English council elections. There are now pro-independence parties in power in Scotland with the SNP, and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

🗣💥NEW: 'I think Nigel Farage is a grifter. Unionist politicians fanboying him. He's a clickbait politician. He won’t be Prime Minister.' 🚫Alliance Party Leader Naomi Long MLA tells Chief Reporter James that she believes Nigel Farage is not a serious politician and will not become Prime Minister. She was asked whether she could work with the Reform UK leader, and what that could mean for Northern Ireland. Reform UK has made major gains at the expense of Labour in the English council elections. There are now pro-independence parties in power in Scotland with the SNP, and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

Cool FM News

16,046 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Lady in glasses criticises Reform and then Labour #BBCQT "The only thing we hear from Reform are big statements, but there's never a clear plan, on how they are going to do it" "If I applied for a job and said hire me because I'm great, I wouldn't get the job" "In terms of Labour, they're completely missing the point. What Labour have done is completely betrayed the people that have voted for you" "What you've done is given us Tory lite, gone more right wing" "We're saying to you no, go to the left, that's what we want" "Why have Labour targeted the disabled, the poor, the old, all of the vulnerable people"

Lady in glasses criticises Reform and then Labour #BBCQT "The only thing we hear from Reform are big statements, but there's never a clear plan, on how they are going to do it" "If I applied for a job and said hire me because I'm great, I wouldn't get the job" "In terms of Labour, they're completely missing the point. What Labour have done is completely betrayed the people that have voted for you" "What you've done is given us Tory lite, gone more right wing" "We're saying to you no, go to the left, that's what we want" "Why have Labour targeted the disabled, the poor, the old, all of the vulnerable people"

Farrukh

118,428 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

#BBCDebate There are many things we need to do. There are two really important things. We have to keep the budget strong. You need a strong economy to do that. And public spending is going to go up. It will go up, and for the NHS very substantially. The only people on this platform who have ever cut the NHS budget are Labour in Wales, they've cut it four times and that's why their waiting lists are four times longer than they are in England. Not only can you not afford a Labour government, the NHS can't afford it either.

#BBCDebate There are many things we need to do. There are two really important things. We have to keep the budget strong. You need a strong economy to do that. And public spending is going to go up. It will go up, and for the NHS very substantially. The only people on this platform who have ever cut the NHS budget are Labour in Wales, they've cut it four times and that's why their waiting lists are four times longer than they are in England. Not only can you not afford a Labour government, the NHS can't afford it either.

Penny Mordaunt

91,936 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Arlene Foster flabbergasted at how Labour talks about Reform voters “When I heard in the House of Lords today one of the Labour members talking about Reform voters in such a disparaging way, I couldn’t believe it. I just couldn’t believe it!” Exactly. I don’t understand why this is so hard for politicians to grasp. Attacking voters as stupid, racist, far-right, Islamophobic, xenophobic or whatever label they reach for today, just because they voted for Reform or raised reasonable concerns about their country… it’s never going to win them back. It only pushes them further away. This is the country now. People have moved right because of you, your policies, your failures, your disconnect. If you don’t like it, get out of politics. Because that’s where Britain is. Arlene is spot on: “When you disrespect Reform, you’re disrespecting the people that voted for them and I think that is something that Labour haven’t come to terms with.” They’re so out of touch with the country it’s scary.

Arlene Foster flabbergasted at how Labour talks about Reform voters “When I heard in the House of Lords today one of the Labour members talking about Reform voters in such a disparaging way, I couldn’t believe it. I just couldn’t believe it!” Exactly. I don’t understand why this is so hard for politicians to grasp. Attacking voters as stupid, racist, far-right, Islamophobic, xenophobic or whatever label they reach for today, just because they voted for Reform or raised reasonable concerns about their country… it’s never going to win them back. It only pushes them further away. This is the country now. People have moved right because of you, your policies, your failures, your disconnect. If you don’t like it, get out of politics. Because that’s where Britain is. Arlene is spot on: “When you disrespect Reform, you’re disrespecting the people that voted for them and I think that is something that Labour haven’t come to terms with.” They’re so out of touch with the country it’s scary.

J Stewart

77,085 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

"I have heard a lot off my friends and I am voting Farage" My news letter was out speaking to people in Wales again. When it comes to influencing how people will vote in May's election, a lot of attention is put on social media. But conversations with friends and family can make a huge difference to how people perceive politics and issues. I thought it is interesting the amount of people who say they are voting "Farage" rather than "Reform". Mr Farage's personal profile is a huge motivating factor for many voters.

Will Hayward

36,627 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Reform UK continue to plateau in the polls, down 5-8 points from a 30 per cent peak last year. Indian national and Labour councillor Aaron Roy was welcomed on-stage by Farage, with fireworks and fanfare. But this, and previous Tory defectors, have estranged voters who want an authentic anti-establishment party. And Matt Goodwin continues to fight accusations that his new book, Suicide of a Nation, features false quotes, by asking ChatGPT to prove that ChatGPT didn't write the book for him. Last night's stream on how Reform has lost its aura:

Reform UK continue to plateau in the polls, down 5-8 points from a 30 per cent peak last year. Indian national and Labour councillor Aaron Roy was welcomed on-stage by Farage, with fireworks and fanfare. But this, and previous Tory defectors, have estranged voters who want an authentic anti-establishment party. And Matt Goodwin continues to fight accusations that his new book, Suicide of a Nation, features false quotes, by asking ChatGPT to prove that ChatGPT didn't write the book for him. Last night's stream on how Reform has lost its aura:

Connor Tomlinson

25,778 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Zack Polanski on Newsnight slams the behaviour of Reform and Labour in the Gorton and Denton by-election: Newsnight, "Why did you produce a leaflet in Urdu in Manchester?" Zack Polanski, "We want to communicate with people thats peak Urdu, that's quite simple" Newsnight, "Labour are Reform are combined criticising you" Zack Polanski, "Keir Starmer said I want to sell crack to children in playgrounds. I don't think any Labour MP should show their face on live TV when we have one of the highest drug death rates in Europe" "The political smear and attack debases politics" Newsnight, "Is it dirty tactics to introduce a new organisation on a leaflet?" Zack Polanski, "Labour have no response so they create fictitious organisations then push that through letter boxes" "Labour also have a van going around showing my face and Hannah Spencer's face, misrepresenting the Green party position on drugs" "Labour's behaviour is bad for democracy" Newsnight, "Has Reform UK Ltd's leaflet and comments about what is British played out well?" Zack Polanski, "It's really bad for the country" "We are not an island of strangers we are an island of neighbours" "People really value the integration and the mixing of communities"

Zack Polanski on Newsnight slams the behaviour of Reform and Labour in the Gorton and Denton by-election: Newsnight, "Why did you produce a leaflet in Urdu in Manchester?" Zack Polanski, "We want to communicate with people thats peak Urdu, that's quite simple" Newsnight, "Labour are Reform are combined criticising you" Zack Polanski, "Keir Starmer said I want to sell crack to children in playgrounds. I don't think any Labour MP should show their face on live TV when we have one of the highest drug death rates in Europe" "The political smear and attack debases politics" Newsnight, "Is it dirty tactics to introduce a new organisation on a leaflet?" Zack Polanski, "Labour have no response so they create fictitious organisations then push that through letter boxes" "Labour also have a van going around showing my face and Hannah Spencer's face, misrepresenting the Green party position on drugs" "Labour's behaviour is bad for democracy" Newsnight, "Has Reform UK Ltd's leaflet and comments about what is British played out well?" Zack Polanski, "It's really bad for the country" "We are not an island of strangers we are an island of neighbours" "People really value the integration and the mixing of communities"

Farrukh

616,047 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

EXC: YouGov / Sky / Politico London elections MRP projection * Labour look set for big losses across the capital, though not wipe out, as the Greens in particular eat into their once solid London vote * Reform UK are also expected to perform well, picking up significant levels of previous Conservative support in the outer boroughs, and driving into Labour heartlands in Barking and Dagenham * The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are expected to hold most of what they have, while Independents and other parties look set to make gains particularly in London’s East According to YouGov's median projection, the following is the number of councils each party is projected to have the highest share of support (compared to 2022) Labour 15 (down 6) Tories 5 (down 1) Lib Dems 4 (up 1) Greens 4 (up 4) Reform 3 (up 3) Too close to call 1 /32 councils:

EXC: YouGov / Sky / Politico London elections MRP projection * Labour look set for big losses across the capital, though not wipe out, as the Greens in particular eat into their once solid London vote * Reform UK are also expected to perform well, picking up significant levels of previous Conservative support in the outer boroughs, and driving into Labour heartlands in Barking and Dagenham * The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are expected to hold most of what they have, while Independents and other parties look set to make gains particularly in London’s East According to YouGov's median projection, the following is the number of councils each party is projected to have the highest share of support (compared to 2022) Labour 15 (down 6) Tories 5 (down 1) Lib Dems 4 (up 1) Greens 4 (up 4) Reform 3 (up 3) Too close to call 1 /32 councils:

Sam Coates Sky

138,809 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce