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Next thread: >Hezbollah fired heavy rockets at Acre. >Ynet: Shooting in Acre, hits in Kiryat Shmona without alarm. >Hezbollah has announced 45 operations so far today. >Al Hadath: Sources indicate that intensive international efforts may lead to a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon tomorrow, Saturday. >Reuters: Trump now...

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BREAKING: The ceasefire just ate itself. The Head of Iran’s Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee just stated: after the Israeli aggression on Lebanon, all plans to open the Strait of Hormuz must immediately cease until there are assurances that Lebanon is included in the ceasefire. There is either a ceasefire on all fronts, or a ceasefire nowhere at all. The entire premise of the deal was Hormuz reopening. Trump’s condition was complete, immediate, and safe opening of the strait. Iran accepted. The ceasefire was built on that single exchange: pause the bombs, open the water. Brent crashed 13 percent. The S&P surged. The market priced peace. Now Iran is threatening to reverse the only thing the ceasefire achieved because of something the ceasefire never included. Three contradictions in 24 hours. Pakistan announced the ceasefire covers everywhere including Lebanon. Netanyahu said it does not include Lebanon and launched the largest IDF strike since Roaring Lion began: 100 Hezbollah targets in 10 minutes. Now Iran says Hormuz stays closed unless Lebanon is covered. The deal’s architect says it includes Lebanon. The deal’s beneficiary says it excludes Lebanon. And now the deal’s other signatory says the core deliverable is revoked unless the excluded front is reinstated. This is what happens when a ceasefire is brokered through intermediaries who need both sides to say yes more than they need both sides to agree. Pakistan shuttled drafts between Washington and Tehran through five mediating channels in one chaotic day. Egypt bridged language. Turkey provided backchannels. China urged an off-ramp. The framework was drafted with sufficient ambiguity that Iran could tell Hezbollah it was covered and Israel could tell its public it was not. That ambiguity held for exactly 18 hours before the IDF’s 100-target strike forced Iran to choose between Hezbollah solidarity and Hormuz revenue. Iran chose Hezbollah. The implications cascade immediately. If Iran follows through and halts Hormuz reopening, the 15 to 20 vessels currently transiting under IRGC clearance codes stop. The yuan toll revenue that was funding reconstruction stops. The ceasefire’s only tangible achievement, the strait reopening that crashed oil prices, reverses. And Trump’s conditional two-week suspension, which was explicitly revocable if Hormuz did not open immediately and safely, faces its trigger event on day one. Trump has three options. Accept Lebanon inclusion, which means pressuring Netanyahu to halt strikes against Hezbollah, which Israel has refused. Reject Lebanon inclusion, which means Iran re-closes Hormuz, which voids the ceasefire’s premise. Or ignore the threat and continue as if the 15 ships passing through a yuan toll booth constitute an open strait, which means the Islamabad talks on Friday begin over a deal that both parties are publicly threatening to revoke. The molecule crisis does not pause for diplomatic fractures. The crackers are rubble. The pipeline bypass just took a drone. The fertiliser is trapped behind the gate. The centrifuges are spinning. And the strait that was supposed to reopen as the war’s first peace dividend is now being held hostage to a front that was never agreed upon, by a parliament that legislated tolls on March 31, in a country whose supreme leader has not been seen in 39 days. One ceasefire. Three interpretations. Zero days before collapse. Full analysis on Substack.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

495,462 views • 3 months ago

Israel has backtracked and has not included Lebanon in the ceasefire. 🇮🇱🇱🇧 Following Israel’s strategic defeat in its quest to eliminate the current Iranian political regime, Tel Aviv will now focus on eliminating Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu announced that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire despite the US, Iran and Pakistan (which has taken an important role in the negotiations for a ceasefire) announces. To this end, operations south of the Litani River are likely to intensify in what could be a long war if external pressure does not force the Zionist political regime to desist. This operation could leave Lebanon partially occupied and destroyed, as has happened in Gaza, under the pretext of fighting armed groups. Eliminating Hezbollah would represent Israel’s ultimate success in ‘neutralising’ all its neighbours, securing lasting peace in the Levant and, for Iran, a loss of influence behind Israeli lines (having Hezbollah is like having a land front against Israel). As for Lebanon, the country would have no chance of defending itself with a government and an army currently subservient to external dictates, and new dissident movements could emerge, leading to a new civil war. Hezbollah, after all, is more than a paramilitary group; it is a state within a state. In fact, the Israeli opposition is deeply disappointed with the ceasefire, branding it a humiliating defeat. Lebanon could be the consolation prize to appease the most radical sector of Zionism. To demonstrate Israel’s resolve, southern Lebanon was bombed this morning, resulting in further civilian casualties.

@Suriyak

29,778 views • 3 months ago

⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱BREAKING: Iran–U.S. Talks in Islamabad as Israel Escalates in Lebanon Rejecting Ceasefire despite Washington Talks. Israeli forces are raiding Nabatieh and attempting ground control in Bint Jbeil, southern Lebanon as the U.S and Iran arrive in Islamabad to hold talks. Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi says Iran is entering negotiations with “complete distrust,” blaming repeated U.S. failures to uphold commitments, and calling for immediate international action to stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon. He stressed Iran will defend its interests fully. An Iranian delegation led by Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf arrived in Islamabad and met Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir. Tehran protested U.S. ceasefire violations, noting it agreed to talks on two conditions, release of frozen assets and a Lebanon ceasefire, both reportedly accepted via Pakistani mediation but not yet implemented. Iran has also maintained restrictions on oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Talks are set for one day, with possible extension. Reuters, citing a senior Iranian source, reports the U.S. agreed to release frozen Iranian assets, which Tehran sees as a test of good faith and linked to safe passage in Hormuz before any permanent deal however a senior U.S. official told CBS News that Washington has not agreed to release any frozen Iranian assets, denying earlier reports. A Pakistani source told Al Jazeera efforts are ongoing for direct U.S.–Iran talks; otherwise, indirect talks will proceed within the same timeframe. Iran rejects separating Israel from the U.S., holding Washington fully responsible. Meanwhile, Israel says it will not discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah in upcoming Washington meetings and continues operations in Lebanon. Sources: AlJazeera, Reuters, FarsNews, ISNA.

Suppressed News.

40,458 views • 3 months ago

This morning, Israel withdrew from its first Lebanese village since the invasion in March, and the Lebanese Armed Forces have moved in to fill the void. The question is: Does this signal the beginning of a forced Israeli retreat, or the start of Lebanon’s long road to recovery? The answer is complicated. Israel can continue destroying Hezbollah infrastructure indefinitely, but it will pay massive international costs for doing so, with no way, short of a full invasion, to extinguish the group entirely. The framework agreement gives Israel legitimacy and time to uproot Hezbollah, but what Lebanon gives, it can also take away. If Beirut loses momentum and descends into state collapse, the entire agreement evaporates, and Hezbollah recovers out of Israel’s reach. This is the project President Joseph Aoun carries to Washington, where he meets Trump for the first time. Trump had no direct communication with Aoun during his first year in office—no meetings, calls, or letters. His sole contact has been in the form of inconsistent messaging on Lebanon’s fate: declaring after the June 26 agreement that “Iran is out, Hezbollah is out, and the road to peace between Israel and Lebanon is in,” then pivoting to pressure Netanyahu for unconditional withdrawal in the spirit of the Iran MOU, telling him, “They don’t want you there. You should redeploy,” before abandoning both positions altogether in favor of his own scheme, declaring, “Syria will do the job.” Aoun has already proven his willingness to buck Iran and pursue eventual peace with Israel. That was enough to earn this meeting. But anyone with a functioning memory knows the track record is bleak. Lebanon’s LAF claimed to have cleared Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani in late 2025, yet Israel continues finding significant assets there a year since their declaration. More damning still, LAF commander Rodolphe Haykal has explicitly prioritized “civil peace” over confronting Hezbollah—a strange priority for a general with orders to the contrary. The Lebanese military has proven as effective at disarming Hezbollah as UN peacekeepers have been, which is to say, not at all. Lebanese leaders have repeatedly promised and failed to disarm the group over the past 35 years—from the Taif Accord through the 2024 ceasefire. The uncomfortable truth is that throughout Lebanon’s history, only foreign powers—the United States, France, Israel, and Syria—have successfully disarmed Lebanese militias. Before Aoun goes all in on Hezbollah disarmament, he needs ironclad U.S. commitments. That means Delta Force-style training units for elite LAF operations, drones and sensors for border security, organized international fundraising for reconstruction, and business initiatives to rebuild Lebanon’s shattered economy. He also needs assurance that Trump will not abandon him halfway through his push. Trump, for his part, will demand specifics: a detailed plan for Hezbollah disarmament, removal of military officers complicit with the group, suspension of anti-normalization laws blocking Israeli-Lebanese civilian contact, and a clear reaffirmation that peace with Israel is Aoun’s strategic objective. Most critically, Aoun must decisively kill Trump’s recurring fantasy of deploying Syrian troops into Lebanon—a move that would resurrect memories of Assad-era brutality and paradoxically strengthen Hezbollah’s popular support. The circumstances favor success. The U.S.-Iran MOU is in tatters, eliminating easy alternatives to the framework. This week’s Rome talks were productive. Pilot zones are advancing. Trump will likely warm to Aoun personally, provided he takes a note from Zelensky and wears a suit. But this is about far more than personal rapport; the future of Lebanon hangs in the balance.

Amit Segal

23,169 views • 13 days ago