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Next week is going to move fast. I’ve pulled together all the key dates, index inclusions, and expected passive money flows in one clean overview — plus scenarios for how things could evolve later this year as the float increases.

137,383 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

53 条评论

Aurelius 的头像
Aurelius4 个月前

Alexandra I got Grok to chart supply vs demand based on your write up of lockup period dates and index buying. Then I asked Grok to predict stock moves based on this. Cool to see. NFA.

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

your right hand scale is not correct for the $135, can you redo?

Aurelius 的头像
Aurelius4 个月前

Sorry I don’t follow. Which part of the stock price y-axis scale is wrong?

Nighthawk20 的头像
Nighthawk204 个月前

@TeslaBoomerMama Left side 135 price marked doesn’t correlate to your scale on the right. Minor technicality. Otherwise all is correct

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

@aurelius_787 yes. Look at IPO price, then look at right scale and you see it.

Aurelius 的头像
Aurelius4 个月前

@vtcd20 IPO price is the purple diamond. Lines up correctly on the right side y-axis. The “IPO price” is written lower with an arrow pointing up to the purple diamond.

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

@vtcd20 oh I see. since it's pulled down, I misinterpreted it. All good then. Well, this graphs shows clearly when you should make any kind of announcement, doesn't it??? Just asking for a curious friend ...

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

@vtcd20 also feel the mid - late July line in brown should be more horizontal before falling, but we all understand that it's just combining the dots, right?

Julien Villa-Massone 的头像
Julien Villa-Massone4 个月前

Exciting!! Alexandra, we just released our SpaceX valuation model in case you and your viewers are interested. It's free, from our startup Dynamik Orbits. We find $8.3T through 2050 with default assumptions.

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

fascinating reposted ✅

Julien Villa-Massone 的头像
Julien Villa-Massone4 个月前

Thank you!

Darkilk 的头像
Darkilk4 个月前

Robinhood SPCX tip: Skip the $135 w/20% buffer Switch to “Name your price” ($155–165). Lottery insurance: If it prices at $163+ you stay eligible. Others get notified & must reconfirm - some may miss it. You get a bigger slice of the lottery pie. No downside: you still only pay the actual IPO price ($135). Set it, forget it. Who else is doing this? #SpaceXIPO #SPCX

Sam ⛵ 的头像
Sam ⛵4 个月前

Would it be too early to submit for both compagnies a non binding shareholder proposal for a merge? 😀

Emmet Peppers 的头像
Emmet Peppers4 个月前

Thanks, this is very useful for investors

Maybe 的头像
Maybe4 个月前

If the merger does occur you will need a new handle.

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

I know 😭

David 的头像
David4 个月前

@ES0894824796547 ... TeXla?

Maybe 的头像
Maybe4 个月前

@TeslaBoomerMama Not sexy enough.

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

@a_i_set 😆😏

✨Amy Ferguson 的头像
✨Amy Ferguson4 个月前

I like your speculation on a merger. I always learn something 😊

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

oh, I am going full nuts now. Trying to nail the timing to a two week window. 😆😆🤪😆😆 PS.: thank you for your kind words 🫡❤️

Zack 的头像
Zack4 个月前

@coskier61 Just speculation here, but first half of August seems likely due to the Roadster unveil reschedule. Could also get the Optimus V3 demo around that time. Makes sense to do both around the same time or just after the offer.

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

@coskier61 🤫

Yvonne Sayers 的头像
Yvonne Sayers4 个月前

wow, this is awesome Alexandra! Such an exciting IPO. I think it's going to be one of the most legendary IPOs of all time honestly. And you look beautiful! you're lighting is perfect ;) And love your red glasses ❤️

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

😌🫡❤️

𝙶𝙸𝙾 的头像
𝙶𝙸𝙾4 个月前

Appreciate all your articles. They’re very helpful to see the big picture and separate signal from noise. Thank you Alexandra!

AleXandra Merz 的头像
AleXandra Merz4 个月前

🫡❤️

lscotti1 的头像
lscotti14 个月前

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Tina 的头像
Tina4 个月前

Thank you for everything you do. So excited. 💝

Thinker 的头像
Thinker4 个月前

Went on Fidelity and got a reservation for an allocation of shares. 🤠

Chansoo Byeon 的头像
Chansoo Byeon4 个月前

Appreciate your hard digging work

Stanley 的头像
Stanley4 个月前

Thanks mama! 🙏🫡🫶

🇺🇸 Colorado Patriot, anti-Communist 🇺🇸 的头像
🇺🇸 Colorado Patriot, anti-Communist 🇺🇸4 个月前

You’re awesome. Thanks for all the great info. It’s confusing and incomplete. At least it is with Schwab.

Micromike168 的头像
Micromike1684 个月前

Great work Alexandra! Tesla shareholder But going for SpaceX as well Hope it will do as well as I believe Love you input

Kevin Connors 的头像
Kevin Connors4 个月前

Absolutely embarrassing for Elon Musk. He said he would take care of his Tesla shareholders and get some SpaceX. I asked for 300 shares with Fidelity investments and I received 10 shares.!!! absolutely embarrassing! I’ve held his stock since 2018 and have added all the way along

BP 的头像
BP4 个月前

Love this breakdown of what’s to come ❤️

Ray 的头像
Ray4 个月前

Hi 👋 @EmmetPeppers what’s your take?

LoreleiAH 的头像
LoreleiAH4 个月前

Thank you Alexandra 🌹

EarthMan 的头像
EarthMan4 个月前

Awesome. Thank you. Excited about the future. As Elon says. Better to be hopeful. The observed is effected by the observer. I’m observing a good future. Better chance of archiving it. Creator is breathing through us. Go SPCX and TSLA.

Henz 的头像
Henz4 个月前

@TeslaBoomerPapa 💪

Ryan Rogue 的头像
Ryan Rogue4 个月前

You da best TBM

Maybe 的头像
Maybe4 个月前

I think that wishing and hoping that it will be a merger of equals is not a good plan for what’s coming.

VERITAS PRIMA 的头像
VERITAS PRIMA4 个月前

So ready!!

RedNeck EV Owner 的头像
RedNeck EV Owner4 个月前

You are such a doll for making all your info public. Thank you so much. You and your husband! ❤️🙂

anthony haynes 的头像
anthony haynes4 个月前

Perfect!!!!

David Chip”on” 的头像
David Chip”on”4 个月前

Thanks Alex looking 👀 forward :))

CG 的头像
CG4 个月前

Thanks . This is great . No one does this kind of analysis.

hollarb 的头像
hollarb4 个月前

TY!!!

DG 的头像
DG4 个月前

🫶

Leonard Peterson 的头像
Leonard Peterson4 个月前

Thanks for all the hard work! 😓

T. Tseung 的头像
T. Tseung4 个月前

@TeslaBoomerPapa 😎

PJay❤️Ess❤️ 的头像
PJay❤️Ess❤️4 个月前

@TeslaBoomerPapa Oh my gosh, this is great! Tomorrow I was just going to write some inclusion dates down! But all of this is really and truly a gift! THANK YOU!

Tim Hundley 📸 🔋🥩🏃‍♂️ 的头像
Tim Hundley 📸 🔋🥩🏃‍♂️4 个月前

✌️🤟🏼🙏🏼

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Swan

26,400 次观看 • 1 年前

This is the most SHAMELESS structural manipulation of a major index I've ever seen. SpaceX is preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make it the sixth-largest company in America on day one. And Nasdaq wants the listing so badly they're literally CHANGING how the Nasdaq-100 works. In February, Nasdaq published a "consultation" proposing sweeping changes to how companies enter the index. The timing is pure coincidence, of course. Just like it's pure coincidence that SpaceX has reportedly made fast index inclusion a CONDITION of listing on Nasdaq. Here's what they're proposing: A new "Fast Entry" rule would let any newly listed company whose market cap ranks in the top 40 of current Nasdaq-100 members get added to the index after just 15 trading days. No seasoning period. No liquidity requirements. Completely exempt from the standards every other company had to meet. Currently, new public companies typically wait up to a year before they're eligible for major index inclusion. That waiting period exists for a reason. It lets the market establish real price discovery. It protects passive investors from being forced into untested, illiquid stocks. And Nasdaq wants to throw all of that out. For ONE listing. But the Fast Entry rule isn't even the worst part... The real scandal is the 5x float multiplier. Right now, the S&P 500 uses a free-float adjusted methodology. If only 5% of a company's shares are available for public trading, the index weights you at 5% of total market cap. That's common sense. You weight a company based on what investors can actually buy. Nasdaq's current methodology already uses total market cap rather than free-float for weighting. But for very low-float stocks, they at least had a 10% minimum float threshold. Under the new proposal, that threshold DISAPPEARS entirely. Instead, any stock with less than 20% free float gets weighted at FIVE TIMES its actual float percentage, capped at 100%. Do the math on SpaceX: If SpaceX IPOs at $1.75 trillion and floats 5% of its shares, there would be roughly $87.5 billion worth of stock available for public trading. Under Nasdaq's proposed 5x multiplier, the index would weight SpaceX at 25% of its total market cap. That means passive funds would be forced to buy as if SpaceX were a $437.5 billion company. But only $87.5 billion of stock actually exists in the market. You are forcing hundreds of billions in passive buying into a $87.5 billion float. QQQ alone manages nearly $400 billion. The total Nasdaq-100 ecosystem represents over $1.4 trillion in exposure across ETFs, mutual funds, structured notes, and derivatives. Every single passive vehicle tracking this index would be REQUIRED to buy SpaceX at whatever price the market dictates. On Day 15. With zero price discovery. Zero track record as a public company. And a float so thin you could read through it. So what this actually does is it creates a structural wealth transfer mechanism. The passive bid from index funds pushes the stock price higher. That higher price benefits exactly one group of people: the insiders and early investors who own the other 95% of the shares. And when lock-up periods expire 90 to 180 days later? Those insiders sell into the artificially inflated passive bid. Your 401(k) is the exit liquidity. This is the fundamental corruption of indexing. Indexing used to be brilliant. Low cost. Efficient. You were free-riding on the price discovery done by active managers. The index reflected the market. Now the index IS the market. Trillions of dollars flow blindly into whatever the index tells them to buy. And the people who control the index methodology are changing the rules to serve the interests of a single IPO candidate. The S&P 500 requires companies to have at least 50% of shares available for public trading. It requires 6 to 12 months of seasoning. It uses free-float adjusted weighting so passive investors aren't buying phantom liquidity. Nasdaq is doing the exact opposite. 15 days. No float requirement. 5x multiplier on insider-held shares. Every passive investor in QQQ, QQQM, and every fund benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100 should understand what's about to happen: The rules are being rewritten to benefit IPO issuers and early-stage insiders, and your capital is the tool being USED to enrich them. 45 years in this business and I've watched Wall Street find creative new ways to separate retail investors from their money in every cycle. But usually they at least try to be subtle about it. This one they put in a PDF and called it a "consultation." What's your take?

George Noble

870,016 次观看 • 7 个月前