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🚨NEXT WEEK'S DATA WILL MASSIVELY IMPACT MARKETS. Monday → China rate decision. Asia opens the week, the West reacts. Wednesday → Japan trade balance (important for the yen) + Alphabet & Tesla earnings report THURSDAY → ECB interest rate decision + US initial jobless claims + Intel earnings report... show more

Crypto Rover

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SoSoValue

52,217 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

The US and China are negotiating a 55% tariff on Beijing and 10% tariffs on Washington. What can we expect from that? Yesterday, we released a new tariff simulator at the OEC that automatically builds a report for any scenario. So we ran our model. In this case, it predicts China's total exports in 2027 would remain flat ($2.42T) and its total imports will grow to $2.13T. China would export about half a trillion less to the US, while growing its exports by about 30 billion each to Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, and Germany. China would also continue to grow its imports of oil and other energy products, such as gas, coal briquettes, and refined petroleum, from Russia. In this scenario the US would increase its exports by about 14% and reduce its imports by about 20%. Mexico and Canada would benefit enormously, as trade between the US and them would increase respectively by $85B and $123B. But what's fun about this tool, is that it automatically gives you a report for any country. Curious about how this scenario might affect Indonesia? Just select Indonesia and click on generate report. Vietnam? Brazil? Spain? Do the same. You can explore these scenarios at the new OEC tariff simulator reports:

The US and China are negotiating a 55% tariff on Beijing and 10% tariffs on Washington. What can we expect from that? Yesterday, we released a new tariff simulator at the OEC that automatically builds a report for any scenario. So we ran our model. In this case, it predicts China's total exports in 2027 would remain flat ($2.42T) and its total imports will grow to $2.13T. China would export about half a trillion less to the US, while growing its exports by about 30 billion each to Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, and Germany. China would also continue to grow its imports of oil and other energy products, such as gas, coal briquettes, and refined petroleum, from Russia. In this scenario the US would increase its exports by about 14% and reduce its imports by about 20%. Mexico and Canada would benefit enormously, as trade between the US and them would increase respectively by $85B and $123B. But what's fun about this tool, is that it automatically gives you a report for any country. Curious about how this scenario might affect Indonesia? Just select Indonesia and click on generate report. Vietnam? Brazil? Spain? Do the same. You can explore these scenarios at the new OEC tariff simulator reports:

César A. Hidalgo

16,439 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

$Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.$

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.

Felix Prehn 🐶

225,378 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

🚨 This Monday Could Be the Worst Day for Markets Every 4 years, a "Black Monday" pattern appears. Here's the historical data: July 1998 → -23.71% July 2002 → -32.41% July 2006 → -9.60% July 2010 → -18.94% July 2014 → -11.05% July 2018 → -19.27% July 2022 → -19.92% July 2026 → ??? If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this. Markets are being pressured from every direction. → The US-Iran peace deal is falling apart. → Markets are now pricing in Fed rate hikes for 2026. → Investors are rotating out of high-risk growth stocks as risk sentiment deteriorates. When markets open next week, this may not be "just another dip." Stocks could sell off. Bonds could weaken. Gold and silver could decline. Bitcoin could experience extreme volatility. Follow and turn on notifications. I'll post the warning before it becomes the headlines.

🚨 This Monday Could Be the Worst Day for Markets Every 4 years, a "Black Monday" pattern appears. Here's the historical data: July 1998 → -23.71% July 2002 → -32.41% July 2006 → -9.60% July 2010 → -18.94% July 2014 → -11.05% July 2018 → -19.27% July 2022 → -19.92% July 2026 → ??? If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this. Markets are being pressured from every direction. → The US-Iran peace deal is falling apart. → Markets are now pricing in Fed rate hikes for 2026. → Investors are rotating out of high-risk growth stocks as risk sentiment deteriorates. When markets open next week, this may not be "just another dip." Stocks could sell off. Bonds could weaken. Gold and silver could decline. Bitcoin could experience extreme volatility. Follow and turn on notifications. I'll post the warning before it becomes the headlines.

winkle.

13,908 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce

For 30 years, Japanese investors borrowed money at near-zero interest rates and poured trillions into US stocks and bonds. It was FREE money with a 5% return from US stocks and bonds. But Japan's interest rates just hit their highest level since 1999, jumping above 2%. Meanwhile, US rates dropped from 5% to 4%. Add in currency conversion costs, and suddenly that "free money" trade barely breaks even—or loses money entirely. But here’s the problem. When a trade stops being profitable, investors don't just hold and hope. They exit. And to exit the carry trade, Japanese investors must sell their US holdings to pay back their yen-denominated loans. We're not talking about millions—this is a multi-trillion dollar position built up over three decades. We saw a preview in 2024 when Japan hinted at rate hikes—US markets had a mini-meltdown. And that’s just the start of it. Japan holds $1.4 trillion in US debt. T he new prime minister needs money for tax cuts and stimulus. If she starts selling that debt to fund her agenda, US interest rates rise, borrowing costs spike, and stock prices fall. This isn't a crisis yet—but it's a ticking time bomb most investors don't even know exists. Let me explain how you can prepare for this. I've put together a complete action plan that shows you exactly when to sell, how to position your portfolio, and which assets win when governments start printing money. Watch the full breakdown here:

For 30 years, Japanese investors borrowed money at near-zero interest rates and poured trillions into US stocks and bonds. It was FREE money with a 5% return from US stocks and bonds. But Japan's interest rates just hit their highest level since 1999, jumping above 2%. Meanwhile, US rates dropped from 5% to 4%. Add in currency conversion costs, and suddenly that "free money" trade barely breaks even—or loses money entirely. But here’s the problem. When a trade stops being profitable, investors don't just hold and hope. They exit. And to exit the carry trade, Japanese investors must sell their US holdings to pay back their yen-denominated loans. We're not talking about millions—this is a multi-trillion dollar position built up over three decades. We saw a preview in 2024 when Japan hinted at rate hikes—US markets had a mini-meltdown. And that’s just the start of it. Japan holds $1.4 trillion in US debt. T he new prime minister needs money for tax cuts and stimulus. If she starts selling that debt to fund her agenda, US interest rates rise, borrowing costs spike, and stock prices fall. This isn't a crisis yet—but it's a ticking time bomb most investors don't even know exists. Let me explain how you can prepare for this. I've put together a complete action plan that shows you exactly when to sell, how to position your portfolio, and which assets win when governments start printing money. Watch the full breakdown here:

Felix Prehn 🐶

45,592 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

$Gold could be setting up for one of the most important trading days of the week. With Retail Sales, the Fed rate decision, and new Fed Chair press conference all on deck, volatility could explode across metals and indices. If you're not comfortable trading this type of environment, stay small or stay out. For Gold, the structure remains bullish. Key support: 🚨 4170 institutional support 🚨 4100 major support that was successfully defended Technical backdrop: • Institutional "bazooka blocks" appeared at the lows • Liquidity was swept and stops were hunted • Buyers stepped in aggressively • Dips continue to attract demand Upside roadmap: 🎯 4505 first target 🎯 Take out 4505 and 4640 becomes the next Sweet Spot Target Today's catalyst will likely come from the Fed, but the charts continue to suggest higher prices while support remains intact. Game plan: • Respect volatility • Keep position sizes under control • Buy bullish dips while support holds • Let price confirm the move Full breakdown in the video below 👇

$Gold could be setting up for one of the most important trading days of the week. With Retail Sales, the Fed rate decision, and new Fed Chair press conference all on deck, volatility could explode across metals and indices. If you're not comfortable trading this type of environment, stay small or stay out. For Gold, the structure remains bullish. Key support: 🚨 4170 institutional support 🚨 4100 major support that was successfully defended Technical backdrop: • Institutional "bazooka blocks" appeared at the lows • Liquidity was swept and stops were hunted • Buyers stepped in aggressively • Dips continue to attract demand Upside roadmap: 🎯 4505 first target 🎯 Take out 4505 and 4640 becomes the next Sweet Spot Target Today's catalyst will likely come from the Fed, but the charts continue to suggest higher prices while support remains intact. Game plan: • Respect volatility • Keep position sizes under control • Buy bullish dips while support holds • Let price confirm the move Full breakdown in the video below 👇

𝕋𝕙𝕖ℙ𝕚𝕧𝕠𝕥𝕂𝕚𝕟𝕘 👑

12,959 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

The data just forced me to make a change to the public experiment. And it’s a BIG ONE. Fridays are officially REMOVED from the forward test. Here’s why. While reviewing the full backtest dataset, one statistic stood out immediately. The system behaves very differently on Fridays. Win rate by day: • Monday → 88.4% • Tuesday → 84.2% • Wednesday → 80.5% • Thursday → 84.3% • Friday → 52.0% Every other day of the week sits around 80–88%. Friday drops to 52%. That’s not a small difference. That’s a completely different market behavior. — Why does this matter? Because this experiment is not about forcing trades. It’s about executing a statistical edge. If the data clearly shows that one day behaves differently, the rational decision is simple: Remove the noise. So from now on the public forward test will run: • Monday – Thursday only • 2:00 AM New York time • 1 MNQ micro contract • TP $300 / SL $300 • BE lock at +$250 → +$200 One trade per day. No discretion. — So the public experiment continues. But now with a cleaner structure. Monday → Thursday only. Day 1 of forward testing already closed +$300. Day 2 of forward testing already closed +$300. Let’s see how the next trades unfold. — One question for other traders: Have you ever found that one specific day of the week completely breaks an otherwise profitable system? #AlgoTrading #FuturesTrading

The data just forced me to make a change to the public experiment. And it’s a BIG ONE. Fridays are officially REMOVED from the forward test. Here’s why. While reviewing the full backtest dataset, one statistic stood out immediately. The system behaves very differently on Fridays. Win rate by day: • Monday → 88.4% • Tuesday → 84.2% • Wednesday → 80.5% • Thursday → 84.3% • Friday → 52.0% Every other day of the week sits around 80–88%. Friday drops to 52%. That’s not a small difference. That’s a completely different market behavior. — Why does this matter? Because this experiment is not about forcing trades. It’s about executing a statistical edge. If the data clearly shows that one day behaves differently, the rational decision is simple: Remove the noise. So from now on the public forward test will run: • Monday – Thursday only • 2:00 AM New York time • 1 MNQ micro contract • TP $300 / SL $300 • BE lock at +$250 → +$200 One trade per day. No discretion. — So the public experiment continues. But now with a cleaner structure. Monday → Thursday only. Day 1 of forward testing already closed +$300. Day 2 of forward testing already closed +$300. Let’s see how the next trades unfold. — One question for other traders: Have you ever found that one specific day of the week completely breaks an otherwise profitable system? #AlgoTrading #FuturesTrading

Herman Trading

56,889 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY!! → Fed rate cuts are CANCELLED. → U.S.-Iran peace deal has officially COLLAPSED. → China and Japan are SELLING U.S. Treasuries. → Stock markets are DUMPING amid AI bubble fears. If you're holding any assets now, you MUST know this: When markets open next week, this won't be "just another dip." Stocks will dump again. Metals will crash hard. Bitcoin and crypto will collapse. Large institutions and major funds are already dumping ALL risk assets. They're not seeking upside. They're minimizing risk and preparing for a market crash. At the same time, pressure is intensifying across the global financial system. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that interest rates will remain higher for longer. Japan has officially intervened in the market with yen support. Meanwhile, China and Japan continue to sell their U.S. Treasury holdings, adding even more strain to the world's largest bond market. When the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt retreat, liquidity starts to evaporate. → Interest rates will stay elevated. → Japan is actively propping up the yen. → China and Japan continue reducing U.S. Treasury holdings. → The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is officially off the table. → Liquidity conditions are constricting across financial markets. → Bond market volatility keeps escalating. → Funds are slashing equity exposure. → The AI-driven rally is rapidly losing steam. → Risk appetite is dwindling across multiple asset classes. This is no longer just a single-market issue. Multiple sources of stress are unfolding simultaneously. That's how financial chain reactions begin. As liquidity tightens and capital flows reverse, fear spreads rapidly across every major asset class. This is no longer just about market positioning. It's about systemic pressure building beneath the surface. I have spent decades studying macro cycles, liquidity flows, and systemic market reactions like these. That's how I knew Bitcoin would peak in October 2025 and called the $126K top. I'll share my next call here first. Follow and turn on notifications.

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY!! → Fed rate cuts are CANCELLED. → U.S.-Iran peace deal has officially COLLAPSED. → China and Japan are SELLING U.S. Treasuries. → Stock markets are DUMPING amid AI bubble fears. If you're holding any assets now, you MUST know this: When markets open next week, this won't be "just another dip." Stocks will dump again. Metals will crash hard. Bitcoin and crypto will collapse. Large institutions and major funds are already dumping ALL risk assets. They're not seeking upside. They're minimizing risk and preparing for a market crash. At the same time, pressure is intensifying across the global financial system. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that interest rates will remain higher for longer. Japan has officially intervened in the market with yen support. Meanwhile, China and Japan continue to sell their U.S. Treasury holdings, adding even more strain to the world's largest bond market. When the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt retreat, liquidity starts to evaporate. → Interest rates will stay elevated. → Japan is actively propping up the yen. → China and Japan continue reducing U.S. Treasury holdings. → The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is officially off the table. → Liquidity conditions are constricting across financial markets. → Bond market volatility keeps escalating. → Funds are slashing equity exposure. → The AI-driven rally is rapidly losing steam. → Risk appetite is dwindling across multiple asset classes. This is no longer just a single-market issue. Multiple sources of stress are unfolding simultaneously. That's how financial chain reactions begin. As liquidity tightens and capital flows reverse, fear spreads rapidly across every major asset class. This is no longer just about market positioning. It's about systemic pressure building beneath the surface. I have spent decades studying macro cycles, liquidity flows, and systemic market reactions like these. That's how I knew Bitcoin would peak in October 2025 and called the $126K top. I'll share my next call here first. Follow and turn on notifications.

0xNobler

149,216 görüntüleme • 18 gün önce