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Novogratz: Why does capitalism keep beating centrally planned economies? Obsession. "Sam Altman goes to bed every night thinking how he's going to beat senseless Dario and Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg and the Google team." That competitive fire is what drives the cutting edge forward. Novogratz saw the same...

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Milk Road

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22,301 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Scaramucci: 67% of college students view socialism neutrally or positively. "You have to be a little bit alarmed by it (I guess we're getting old?)" Novogratz: "Pure socialism, we're going to sink." "But unbridled capitalism, the way we're actually doing it right now, is also going to break the country." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
2:50

Scaramucci: 67% of college students view socialism neutrally or positively. "You have to be a little bit alarmed by it (I guess we're getting old?)" Novogratz: "Pure socialism, we're going to sink." "But unbridled capitalism, the way we're actually doing it right now, is also going to break the country." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Novogratz: Jane Street makes more than Goldman Sachs with 1/120th the people - quarter after quarter after quarter. The AI-driven trading firm thesis already played out. "They've been doing this for 15 years and they've been winning." Now that same disruption is going businesswide. (The question is just how fast it morphs) FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
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Novogratz: Jane Street makes more than Goldman Sachs with 1/120th the people - quarter after quarter after quarter. The AI-driven trading firm thesis already played out. "They've been doing this for 15 years and they've been winning." Now that same disruption is going businesswide. (The question is just how fast it morphs) FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Mike Novogratz: "If SpaceX is higher than $1.75T by the end of the year, the S&P will hit 8,000." "And if SpaceX is back to a trillion, we will have seen 'oh sh*t - that was the top!'" FT Anthony Scaramucci @Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge SALT.
0:58

Mike Novogratz: "If SpaceX is higher than $1.75T by the end of the year, the S&P will hit 8,000." "And if SpaceX is back to a trillion, we will have seen 'oh sh*t - that was the top!'" FT Anthony Scaramucci @Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge SALT.

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Novogratz: If you put Saylor on a lie detector, he'd pass. "Michael believes Bitcoin is one of the great inventions ever made... and that this thing is still destined for a million." The difference between Saylor and other big-name market analysts? "We're probability basing things. We're not religious. He's religious." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
0:52

Novogratz: If you put Saylor on a lie detector, he'd pass. "Michael believes Bitcoin is one of the great inventions ever made... and that this thing is still destined for a million." The difference between Saylor and other big-name market analysts? "We're probability basing things. We're not religious. He's religious." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Novogratz: The market wants to force Saylor's hand - but they're going to be disappointed. "He can sit and do nothing and be fine. He's not a force seller of Bitcoin anytime soon." "He has plenty of cash to pay his dividends (for a while) and wait." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
1:03

Novogratz: The market wants to force Saylor's hand - but they're going to be disappointed. "He can sit and do nothing and be fine. He's not a force seller of Bitcoin anytime soon." "He has plenty of cash to pay his dividends (for a while) and wait." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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With $40T in debt, Novogratz says there's really only one playbook left. "What you really need to do when you got 40 trillion dollars of debt is constantly have inflation a little higher than people are comfortable with." "(But not accelerating higher.)" Run 4% inflation while the economy grows and you slowly eat the debt away. "Unfortunately it's the only thing that works." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
1:30

With $40T in debt, Novogratz says there's really only one playbook left. "What you really need to do when you got 40 trillion dollars of debt is constantly have inflation a little higher than people are comfortable with." "(But not accelerating higher.)" Run 4% inflation while the economy grows and you slowly eat the debt away. "Unfortunately it's the only thing that works." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Scaramucci: Trump accounts (investment accounts seeded at birth) might be the best policy idea this administration has had. Michael Dell kicked in $5B to jumpstart it. Galaxy pledged one for every employee. Novogratz says the real power is compounding: "All of a sudden you're 13 or 14 years old and you have a nest egg." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
1:52

Scaramucci: Trump accounts (investment accounts seeded at birth) might be the best policy idea this administration has had. Michael Dell kicked in $5B to jumpstart it. Galaxy pledged one for every employee. Novogratz says the real power is compounding: "All of a sudden you're 13 or 14 years old and you have a nest egg." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Mike Novogratz: The US is only 6 to 12 months ahead of China in AI - and the pressure NOT to slow down is enormous. A co-founder of one of the big LLMs told Novogratz just 2 days ago: "We're now really thinking early '28, where we get recursive AI models that can create their own AI models." "That was such a sci-fi idea 5 years ago, and now we're 18 months from it." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
2:35

Mike Novogratz: The US is only 6 to 12 months ahead of China in AI - and the pressure NOT to slow down is enormous. A co-founder of one of the big LLMs told Novogratz just 2 days ago: "We're now really thinking early '28, where we get recursive AI models that can create their own AI models." "That was such a sci-fi idea 5 years ago, and now we're 18 months from it." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Novogratz: The Anthropic IPO is coming - and it will be "as frantic, crazy an IPO as SpaceX was." SpaceX came in at $135, ran to $210, now back to $134. (And that's before any insider has sold a single share) "We start getting liquidity on that thing in a month." It feels priced to perfection. "I'd rather be on the sidelines of this one unless it really corrects" FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
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Novogratz: The Anthropic IPO is coming - and it will be "as frantic, crazy an IPO as SpaceX was." SpaceX came in at $135, ran to $210, now back to $134. (And that's before any insider has sold a single share) "We start getting liquidity on that thing in a month." It feels priced to perfection. "I'd rather be on the sidelines of this one unless it really corrects" FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Mike Novogratz: The US has $40T of debt and there's only one way out. "The only way we deal with that debt is to inflate it away. Period. End of story." Run 4% inflation while convincing markets you're targeting 2%. Do that for 10 years and you've erased 30% of real debt. The danger is that people could lose confidence, and 4% becomes 14% or 40% - wiping out debt AND wealth simultaneously. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
1:43

Mike Novogratz: The US has $40T of debt and there's only one way out. "The only way we deal with that debt is to inflate it away. Period. End of story." Run 4% inflation while convincing markets you're targeting 2%. Do that for 10 years and you've erased 30% of real debt. The danger is that people could lose confidence, and 4% becomes 14% or 40% - wiping out debt AND wealth simultaneously. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Novogratz: The single number you need on your screen right now is the 10-year Treasury yield. "4 to 4 and a half, 4 to 460, fine zone. We start going to 470 to 520, not a fine zone. And if it's going there quickly, really bad." The US has $41T in national debt that's accelerating. That's why Trump and Bessent want short rates back to zero - they pay a lot financing that debt. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge. Follow for more: Milk Road
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Novogratz: The single number you need on your screen right now is the 10-year Treasury yield. "4 to 4 and a half, 4 to 460, fine zone. We start going to 470 to 520, not a fine zone. And if it's going there quickly, really bad." The US has $41T in national debt that's accelerating. That's why Trump and Bessent want short rates back to zero - they pay a lot financing that debt. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge. Follow for more: Milk Road

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Google just posted negative free cash flow for the first time since its 2004 IPO - is this the beginning of an AI capex reckoning? Novogratz: There will absolutely be wasted CapEx - not everyone wins. "Gary Winick changed the way we live by laying all that fiber between continents, and his company went out of business, and we all use his fiber." Creative destruction is coming. The infrastructure gets built. Some of the builders go bust. That's just how it works. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
1:51

Google just posted negative free cash flow for the first time since its 2004 IPO - is this the beginning of an AI capex reckoning? Novogratz: There will absolutely be wasted CapEx - not everyone wins. "Gary Winick changed the way we live by laying all that fiber between continents, and his company went out of business, and we all use his fiber." Creative destruction is coming. The infrastructure gets built. Some of the builders go bust. That's just how it works. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Mike Novogratz: No one cares about anything outside the AI food chain right now. "Crypto is in that... we tried to make the crypto agentic link. It's actually a real link. It's not a theoretical link..." "But no one cares about crypto right now." "Markets need energy." "And then you've got Saylor selling a little bit. I don't know why he did that, it was a strange move..." "It was a tiny amount - but if the guy with laser eyes is selling $BTC, that's not good either." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge SALT.
0:51

Mike Novogratz: No one cares about anything outside the AI food chain right now. "Crypto is in that... we tried to make the crypto agentic link. It's actually a real link. It's not a theoretical link..." "But no one cares about crypto right now." "Markets need energy." "And then you've got Saylor selling a little bit. I don't know why he did that, it was a strange move..." "It was a tiny amount - but if the guy with laser eyes is selling $BTC, that's not good either." FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge SALT.

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xAI buying Cursor makes Elon a legit frontier model competitor to Anthropic and OpenAI overnight. If Tesla and SpaceX merge by end of year, you get a $4T company with robotics, solar, self-driving, and AI under one roof. Novogratz: "Shorting Elon Musk is a fools errand. There has never been a company in the history of companies with more key man risk." If something happened to Elon, that company loses 75% of its value. No other company on Earth you could say that about. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
1:45

xAI buying Cursor makes Elon a legit frontier model competitor to Anthropic and OpenAI overnight. If Tesla and SpaceX merge by end of year, you get a $4T company with robotics, solar, self-driving, and AI under one roof. Novogratz: "Shorting Elon Musk is a fools errand. There has never been a company in the history of companies with more key man risk." If something happened to Elon, that company loses 75% of its value. No other company on Earth you could say that about. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Novogratz: the CLARITY Act passes, and it happens in August. "I think it's going to be a last-minute small little compromise" on ethics, modeled on the Laken Riley Act structure where state AGs can sue the DOJ but not the president directly. Senator Warner told him personally: "No matter if I never have to hear the word crypto again after this act is passed, I'll be happy." The people who've ground through this for years are desperate to close it out. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
1:39

Novogratz: the CLARITY Act passes, and it happens in August. "I think it's going to be a last-minute small little compromise" on ethics, modeled on the Laken Riley Act structure where state AGs can sue the DOJ but not the president directly. Senator Warner told him personally: "No matter if I never have to hear the word crypto again after this act is passed, I'll be happy." The people who've ground through this for years are desperate to close it out. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Novogratz: How do you hedge a bubble you're still riding? Buy puts - long-dated ones. The top trader on the planet right now, King Leopold (who left Anthropic to start a hedge fund), recently loaded up on $4-5B notional in puts. "That's what you're supposed to do. Not get short a market that could rip your face off." The insurance won't bail you out. But it gives you the courage to act when the thesis starts working. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
1:56

Novogratz: How do you hedge a bubble you're still riding? Buy puts - long-dated ones. The top trader on the planet right now, King Leopold (who left Anthropic to start a hedge fund), recently loaded up on $4-5B notional in puts. "That's what you're supposed to do. Not get short a market that could rip your face off." The insurance won't bail you out. But it gives you the courage to act when the thesis starts working. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Bernie Sanders wants the US government to take a 50% equity stake in every major AI company with $200M+ in annual revenue (Funneling dividends directly to Americans via a sovereign wealth fund) Novogratz's take: "You got to be very careful before you just start expropriating other people's money... you're going to go take half of Google? No." Not going to happen. But something IS coming. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.
2:19

Bernie Sanders wants the US government to take a 50% equity stake in every major AI company with $200M+ in annual revenue (Funneling dividends directly to Americans via a sovereign wealth fund) Novogratz's take: "You got to be very careful before you just start expropriating other people's money... you're going to go take half of Google? No." Not going to happen. But something IS coming. FT Anthony Scaramucci Mike Novogratz All Things Markets SkyBridge.

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Markets climbing the wall of worry, Bitcoin crossed $80,000, and AI rewriting the rules of every business on the planet, Elon Musk and Sam Altman fighting it out in court, Mike Novogratz and I discuss it all on this episode of All Things Markets (All Things Markets) Watch on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Timestamps 0:00 Mooch & Novo Introduction 1:01 Bitcoin hits $80K, Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, and crypto wants to go higher 2:30 Clarity Act breakdown: Why it's getting done and what it means for crypto 5:35 What the hell is happening to the market? 8:32 Novo: "Crypto is getting its mojo back." 10:11 Long Nvidia/data centers, short legacy SaaS, does it still work? 13:43 Bullish vs. Bearish segment 18:07 SpaceX IPO at $1.75T+: Every institution needs to own it 23:27 Tokenization timeline + the best trade of the next 12 months 26:19 Closing thoughts
27:16

Markets climbing the wall of worry, Bitcoin crossed $80,000, and AI rewriting the rules of every business on the planet, Elon Musk and Sam Altman fighting it out in court, Mike Novogratz and I discuss it all on this episode of All Things Markets (All Things Markets) Watch on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Timestamps 0:00 Mooch & Novo Introduction 1:01 Bitcoin hits $80K, Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, and crypto wants to go higher 2:30 Clarity Act breakdown: Why it's getting done and what it means for crypto 5:35 What the hell is happening to the market? 8:32 Novo: "Crypto is getting its mojo back." 10:11 Long Nvidia/data centers, short legacy SaaS, does it still work? 13:43 Bullish vs. Bearish segment 18:07 SpaceX IPO at $1.75T+: Every institution needs to own it 23:27 Tokenization timeline + the best trade of the next 12 months 26:19 Closing thoughts

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Dell is reportedly cutting 14,000 people and every single CEO in America right now is looking at Claude and doing the same math.Mike Novogratz If I don't replace jobs with agents — I'm going to get crushed by someone who does. That's the calculation happening in every boardroom in the country. AI is eating white collar jobs and it's just getting started. Here's my prediction: This becomes THE political issue of 2026 and it will absolutely dominate 2028. What do you think the solution is? 👇🏼
0:30

Dell is reportedly cutting 14,000 people and every single CEO in America right now is looking at Claude and doing the same math.Mike Novogratz If I don't replace jobs with agents — I'm going to get crushed by someone who does. That's the calculation happening in every boardroom in the country. AI is eating white collar jobs and it's just getting started. Here's my prediction: This becomes THE political issue of 2026 and it will absolutely dominate 2028. What do you think the solution is? 👇🏼

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Mike Novogratz and I are back to discuss all things markets, and wow is there a lot to discuss. Watch on X, YouTube, Spotify, or listen wherever you get your podcasts. Timestamps 0:00 Anthony and Mike Introduction 0:55 Macro outlook: gold, silver, and crypto pullback 2:45 Kevin Warsh pick and the effect of his appointment 8:16 S&P 500 All Time High, Shiller PE market is overvalued 10:12 The Nifty 50, market concentration, and historical parallels 12:44 Hypothetical: Mike Novogratz as Fed Chair in 2026 17:10 Kevin Warsh predictions 20:32 Bitcoin panic calls and the recent crypto selloff 24:35 Crypto PACs, political pressure, and midterm elections 28:15 Why voters don’t understand deficits and entitlement math
31:28

Mike Novogratz and I are back to discuss all things markets, and wow is there a lot to discuss. Watch on X, YouTube, Spotify, or listen wherever you get your podcasts. Timestamps 0:00 Anthony and Mike Introduction 0:55 Macro outlook: gold, silver, and crypto pullback 2:45 Kevin Warsh pick and the effect of his appointment 8:16 S&P 500 All Time High, Shiller PE market is overvalued 10:12 The Nifty 50, market concentration, and historical parallels 12:44 Hypothetical: Mike Novogratz as Fed Chair in 2026 17:10 Kevin Warsh predictions 20:32 Bitcoin panic calls and the recent crypto selloff 24:35 Crypto PACs, political pressure, and midterm elections 28:15 Why voters don’t understand deficits and entitlement math

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