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NUPL called every bull trap in every bear cycle without missing once We're currently sitting in the hope/fear zone at 25 In every previous cycle, the bottom only formed when NUPL dropped below zero We're not there yet

15,198 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 READ THIS CAREFULLY Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom won’t be where you think. The part most people ignore: Timing. Days from market cycle top → bottom: 2012: 405 days 2016: 362 days 2020: 376 days We haven’t reached that timing zone yet in this cycle. Purely on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is July–November 2026. That matters more than any single number on your chart. Most traders only operate on price: “I’ll buy at X.” But the zone that feels “safe” is usually the zone where people do nothing. I don’t play that game. Below $50,000 I’m a buyer. Regardless of when it happens. July–November 2026 I’m a buyer. Regardless of price. If either condition is met, I buy. No hesitation. Yes, I started accumulating as soon as we entered the $60k range last month, even though the timing window isn’t here yet. Back in October, when Bitcoin was around $120,000, I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k. People laughed. Sentiment was euphoric: “BTC will never see $100k again.” Now we’re here. There’s one more thing most people keep ignoring: NUPL. Every generational bottom: 2018, COVID, 2022, happened when NUPL entered the blue zone. We’re not there yet. For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

1,359,094 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 PAY ATTENTION Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom won’t be defined by price. The only thing that matters now: Time. Every Bitcoin cycle follows the same structure: 35 bars expansion + 12 bars contraction. 2015–2017: expansion 2018: contraction 2018–2021: expansion 2022: contraction Now look at where we are. The expansion phase is complete. The contraction has just begun. And this phase always takes time. Days from cycle top → final low: 2012: ~400 days 2016: ~360 days 2020: ~370 days We are not there yet. Based on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is: July–November 2026. That matters more than any price level people are watching. Most traders think like this: “I’ll buy when it hits X.” But real bottoms don’t form at obvious levels. Below $50,000 I’m a buyer. Regardless of when it happens. July–November 2026 I’m a buyer. Regardless of price. If one of those conditions is met, I buy. No hesitation. Yes, I started accumulating in the $60k range already. Even though the timing window isn’t here yet. Back in October, around $120k, I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k. People ignored it. “BTC will never go below $100k again.” Now we’re here. And there’s still one signal missing: NUPL. Every major bottom: - 2018 - COVID - 2022 Formed when NUPL entered the blue zone. We haven’t seen that yet. Remember: For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

1,143,142 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten