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$NVDA Announces Optical Scale-Up for the Next Feynman Supercomputer For the first time, $NVDA will use laser-based CPO technology to connect chips within a rack $LITE $COHR $AAOI $TSEM

Daniel Romero

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18,257 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Dylan Patel believes $NVDA will not use CPO even with Feynman “We’re very bullish on copper and non-CPO optics. We're kinda bearish CPO. $APH is going to perform much better over the next few years than previously expected.” Full quote: “The spending associated with AI chips is currently at or below 10%, but when we move to CPO, networking will grow even further, to 20% or 30%. We are seeing a huge uplift in networking content. CPO is a massive step-function change for the industry, and everyone recognizes it now, but people are getting a little too exuberant. In my view, it is not coming in 2027. It will really arrive toward the end of 2028, with 2029 being the real ramp for scale-up CPO. There have been a lot of manufacturing problems. If we could deploy it today at a good cost, everyone would do it. However, it is really hard. The manufacturing volumes and yields are not there, and the chips are not fully designed for it yet. It is a very complex and difficult technology to ramp, so people are going to stay with copper for as long as they can. That means Rubin is all copper, and Feynman, the next-generation Nvidia GPU after Rubin and Rubin Ultra, is still copper. We are not even shipping Rubin yet. We have a few generations of chips before we get to CPO on the GPU. CPO on switches is coming earlier than on GPUs or AI ASICs. Even without CPO, as cluster sizes get bigger, you need more optics, active electrical cables, and similar components per GPU. We have seen a major shift in the dynamics. On Monday, we released a note for our institutional research subscribers stating that, over the medium term, we are actually very bullish on copper and non-CPO optics, while being slightly bearish on CPO. This is due to delays in downstream chips, such as Feynman not fully utilizing CPO. Copper companies like Amphenol, which make backplane connectors and cables, are going to perform much better over the next few years than previously expected because CPO is being delayed. Ultimately, integrating optics is much more expensive than sending signals electrically. However, electrical signals cannot travel very far without adding repeaters or optics. There is a trade-off continuum, and while CPO will happen, it is currently being pushed out.”

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