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$NVDA is the "safe short." Same framing preceded Amazon's and Google's breakouts. Dan Loeb, Third Point ($30B AUM), on The All-In Podcast: the stock's persistent discount isn't a fundamental ceiling. It's crowded short mechanics. Long/short pods must carry a short book. At $5 trillion, $NVDA is the obvious answer...

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Podcast Alpha

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119,472 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Nvidia $NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang, on if the semiconductor industry is due for a bust: "No, not for a while. This time is different because this is not demand driven, it is not seasonal...meaning seasonal demand driven. This is industrially driven, meaning the fundamental technology of computers is changing. We need a whole new layer of infrastructure in the world. We have energy, internet, roads, railroads, we now need the intelligence layer built on top of all of that and this layer needs chips. I believe we need our semiconductor industry to be somewhere between 5-10x larger than it is over the course of the next 10 years. It is way too small today, which is the reason why memory is in such shortage, storage is in such shortage, optical interconnects are short, packaging is short, and TSMC foundry chips are short. Everything is in such short supply because it is not a cyclical nature. It is fundamental infrastructure related. The whole industry is short." According to the WSTS, the semiconductor industry is projected to be $1.5 trillion in 2026. 5-10x larger puts it at $7.5 trillion to $15 trillion. Via Axios
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Nvidia $NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang, on if the semiconductor industry is due for a bust: "No, not for a while. This time is different because this is not demand driven, it is not seasonal...meaning seasonal demand driven. This is industrially driven, meaning the fundamental technology of computers is changing. We need a whole new layer of infrastructure in the world. We have energy, internet, roads, railroads, we now need the intelligence layer built on top of all of that and this layer needs chips. I believe we need our semiconductor industry to be somewhere between 5-10x larger than it is over the course of the next 10 years. It is way too small today, which is the reason why memory is in such shortage, storage is in such shortage, optical interconnects are short, packaging is short, and TSMC foundry chips are short. Everything is in such short supply because it is not a cyclical nature. It is fundamental infrastructure related. The whole industry is short." According to the WSTS, the semiconductor industry is projected to be $1.5 trillion in 2026. 5-10x larger puts it at $7.5 trillion to $15 trillion. Via Axios

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🚨 MICHAEL BURRY JUST BET AGAINST THE ENTIRE AI The man who predicted the 2008 crash and walked away with $800 million in profit just opened four new short positions: $CAT: short at $1,060 $TSLA: short at $416 $AMAT: short at $729 $NVDA: $187M short at $198 This is not a hedge, this is a conviction bet. Burry doesn't short for fun He shorts when he sees something everyone else is missing The same way he saw 2008 coming while Wall Street was still celebrating. He's seeing it again right now The question is whether you're on the right side of his trade.
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🚨 MICHAEL BURRY JUST BET AGAINST THE ENTIRE AI The man who predicted the 2008 crash and walked away with $800 million in profit just opened four new short positions: $CAT: short at $1,060 $TSLA: short at $416 $AMAT: short at $729 $NVDA: $187M short at $198 This is not a hedge, this is a conviction bet. Burry doesn't short for fun He shorts when he sees something everyone else is missing The same way he saw 2008 coming while Wall Street was still celebrating. He's seeing it again right now The question is whether you're on the right side of his trade.

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"any great short seller will tell you they made 90% of their money on the long side. the math is with you." druckenmiller, quoting robert wilson, one of the greatest short sellers who ever lived. he adds: "it's really cool to make money in a short, because it's different." cool and profitable aren't the same thing. a short caps your gain at 100% and leaves your loss open-ended. he also says it plainly earlier in the same conversation: "if you get aggressive on the short side in a bear market, you can get your head ripped off in rallies." this is druckenmiller's opinion on shorting.
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"any great short seller will tell you they made 90% of their money on the long side. the math is with you." druckenmiller, quoting robert wilson, one of the greatest short sellers who ever lived. he adds: "it's really cool to make money in a short, because it's different." cool and profitable aren't the same thing. a short caps your gain at 100% and leaves your loss open-ended. he also says it plainly earlier in the same conversation: "if you get aggressive on the short side in a bear market, you can get your head ripped off in rallies." this is druckenmiller's opinion on shorting.

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.New Orleans Saints Detroit Lions Tyler Shough down 21-0 in the 3rd...What a comeback! a 2 point try short, BUT, put the NFL on notice that with TYLER TUFF....no lead is safe. #whodat #BaldysBreakdowns
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a potential bro short i boarded 3 years ago, based on a comic skit i made 7 years ago. this was when I was still trying to find the tone of my bro skits. I realized that this is both cringe, but at the same time, too real. Dunno if I'll produce this into a full short
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"If you short STRC at $100 your downside is capped because Strategy will come in and run the ATM right at $100. But your upside as a short is unlimited" Parker White on why STRC became a perfect short setup and why the violent selloff was shorts latching onto an opportunity rather than a fundamental problem "SATA did not have nearly as violent of a reaction. And Strive actually has a more vulnerable balance sheet position than Strategy with STRC. Yet the market was trading down for STRC" "This really was just a situation of shorts latching on to an opportunity and then people panicking, grabbing hold of a narrative, and selling"
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"If you short STRC at $100 your downside is capped because Strategy will come in and run the ATM right at $100. But your upside as a short is unlimited" Parker White on why STRC became a perfect short setup and why the violent selloff was shorts latching onto an opportunity rather than a fundamental problem "SATA did not have nearly as violent of a reaction. And Strive actually has a more vulnerable balance sheet position than Strategy with STRC. Yet the market was trading down for STRC" "This really was just a situation of shorts latching on to an opportunity and then people panicking, grabbing hold of a narrative, and selling"

Laura Shin

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Alix Pasquet reveals that one of the best long-short managers alive flies coach despite being a multi-billionaire "There's a reason why Warren is very frugal." "A friend of mine, I was an analyst for probably the best long-short manager alive, but the long-short manager was very frugal to the point where he only travels everywhere on coach, doesn't have a private plane despite being a multi-billionaire, only flies coach." "There's a yearly conference in Idaho and he's often on the same plane that I'm on, and I'm shocked, because I'll be sitting in business class and this guy's sitting in the back." "The first time it happened, I'm like, there's no way he's going to be in coach. No, he was in coach with his wife, a multi-billionaire."
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Alix Pasquet reveals that one of the best long-short managers alive flies coach despite being a multi-billionaire "There's a reason why Warren is very frugal." "A friend of mine, I was an analyst for probably the best long-short manager alive, but the long-short manager was very frugal to the point where he only travels everywhere on coach, doesn't have a private plane despite being a multi-billionaire, only flies coach." "There's a yearly conference in Idaho and he's often on the same plane that I'm on, and I'm shocked, because I'll be sitting in business class and this guy's sitting in the back." "The first time it happened, I'm like, there's no way he's going to be in coach. No, he was in coach with his wife, a multi-billionaire."

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Kyle Reidhead (Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road) explains why he agrees with David Hoffman in the short term and disagrees in the long term: "David's article: Ethereum is going to be great, but ETH won't be any good. I disagree with that. But I agree with it in the short term." "ETH is $250 billion, ridiculous for what's done on it today. Short term: HYPE is a better bet." "Long term: ETH is probably the best bet on the crypto ecosystem. Agentic payments, tokenization, treasuries, stocks onchain. Ethereum benefits. ETH has a place. We just need a lot more onchain first."

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For more than 50 years, comedian Martin Short has been a bright spot on any stage or screen. And when you know what he has endured in his private life, his irrepressibly sunny attitude is all the more astonishing. "Marty: Life Is Short," a hilarious and heartbreaking Netflix documentary, tells of the personal tragedies that Short has endured since childhood – and how he has risen above them. Tracy Smith talks with Short and director Lawrence Kasdan about grief and loss being met with laughter and joy.

CBS Sunday Morning 🌞

24,620 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

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1:06

Peter Thiel on how to think about the future “What you end up doing when you think of the future as indefinite is you pick a job that will be good on your resume because it will then lead to a different job later on.” Instead of viewing the future as indefinite, Thiel suggests that the students in the audience think of the future on three horizons: short term, medium term, and long term. And he defines them as follows: 1. Short term = Are you going to be happy and will you be learning a lot? 2. Medium term = How good is it on your resume? 3. Long term = Are you working on something important or meaningful? “I think we are in a skewed world where we overweight the medium term, and we underweight some combination of the short term and the long term.” Thiel recommends recalibrating it to: “Focus on some combination of short term and long term. And forget about the medium term.” Video source: Radical Discourse (2014)

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8-28-26 The Bond Market Is Setting Up For A Massive Short Squeeze $TLT $BND The bond market may be building one of its most interesting contrarian setups — not simply because inflation and wage growth are declining, but because positioning has become extremely stretched. There is currently a massive short position against Treasury bonds, much of it tied to leveraged hedge funds running the basis trade. These funds attempt to capture small pricing differences between Treasury securities and futures, often using significant leverage and short Treasury futures as a hedge. That creates the potential for a powerful unwind. If an event causes Treasury yields to drop sharply, those leveraged short positions could come under pressure. Hedge funds would then be forced to cover their shorts, which means buying bonds. That could create a self-reinforcing cycle: yields fall sharply → bond prices rise → Treasury shorts come under pressure → hedge funds cover → bond prices rise further → yields fall even more → additional shorts are forced to cover. Goldman Sachs has highlighted similar dynamics in its conditional projections for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury markets. This is why the bond opportunity right now isn't necessarily about making a long-term call that yields have peaked forever. It's about positioning, leverage and the potential mechanics of forced short covering. Bonds are already extremely stretched to the downside. If the basis trade begins to unwind, there could be substantial upside in Treasuries as shorts rush to cover. But there is an important catch: this needs a catalyst. If yields simply drift gradually lower, it may not create enough pressure to force hedge funds out of their positions. The market likely needs an event that causes yields to fall sharply enough to trigger the initial wave of short covering. Once that happens, leverage could amplify the move dramatically. So the setup is there, but patience matters. This isn't necessarily a trade that happens tomorrow. The key is watching for a sharp move lower in yields that begins forcing leveraged Treasury shorts to unwind. If that trigger arrives, what starts as a normal bond rally could quickly turn into a much larger short squeeze. Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors
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8-28-26 The Bond Market Is Setting Up For A Massive Short Squeeze $TLT $BND The bond market may be building one of its most interesting contrarian setups — not simply because inflation and wage growth are declining, but because positioning has become extremely stretched. There is currently a massive short position against Treasury bonds, much of it tied to leveraged hedge funds running the basis trade. These funds attempt to capture small pricing differences between Treasury securities and futures, often using significant leverage and short Treasury futures as a hedge. That creates the potential for a powerful unwind. If an event causes Treasury yields to drop sharply, those leveraged short positions could come under pressure. Hedge funds would then be forced to cover their shorts, which means buying bonds. That could create a self-reinforcing cycle: yields fall sharply → bond prices rise → Treasury shorts come under pressure → hedge funds cover → bond prices rise further → yields fall even more → additional shorts are forced to cover. Goldman Sachs has highlighted similar dynamics in its conditional projections for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury markets. This is why the bond opportunity right now isn't necessarily about making a long-term call that yields have peaked forever. It's about positioning, leverage and the potential mechanics of forced short covering. Bonds are already extremely stretched to the downside. If the basis trade begins to unwind, there could be substantial upside in Treasuries as shorts rush to cover. But there is an important catch: this needs a catalyst. If yields simply drift gradually lower, it may not create enough pressure to force hedge funds out of their positions. The market likely needs an event that causes yields to fall sharply enough to trigger the initial wave of short covering. Once that happens, leverage could amplify the move dramatically. So the setup is there, but patience matters. This isn't necessarily a trade that happens tomorrow. The key is watching for a sharp move lower in yields that begins forcing leveraged Treasury shorts to unwind. If that trigger arrives, what starts as a normal bond rally could quickly turn into a much larger short squeeze. Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors

Lance Roberts

20,279 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

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1:35

How to size shorts when the stock can rip 50% overnight: George Livadas (Upslope Capital). Solo L/S PM, basket-shorts SPACs and promotes. George Livadas explains: "I settled on sizing a lot of shorts in the 50 to 70 basis point range." "I've seen really obvious promotes where a company jumps 50% overnight." "If you have a 70 bp short and it goes up 50% overnight, you're sitting at a 1% position." "It's not crazy to sit tight with a 1% short — even on a high short interest stock." "Think through what happens if the stock goes up 50% — or doubles." "Is there an easy way out — or are you gonna be in a panic and forced to do something you don't want to do?"

Ethan Kho

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