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One thing Scott Horton kept circling back to is how misleading the surface story is. His view is that what looks like a shift by Trump is less a new strategy and more a forced attempt to contain escalation that is already out of control. Horton argues Trump never... truly wanted a direct war with Iran, but was drawn into it through allied pressure and momentum dynamics. In that sense, the current posture is not a clean pivot but an effort to stop further expansion of the conflict. He places significant weight on the role of Benjamin Netanyahu in sustaining long-running pressure that makes US disengagement difficult once escalation begins. Once the cycle starts, Horton says, it becomes hard for Washington to step back without political and strategic fallout. He doubts the U.S. could fully avoid being pulled into a wider regional conflict if things continue to escalate. The overall picture he draws is not victory or reversal, but a system running into its own limits. Scott Hortonshow more

Mario Nawfal

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263,495 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷 INTERVIEW – SCOTT HORTON: “WE COULD HAVE NORMALIZED WITH IRAN DECADES AGO, BUT ISRAEL BLOCKED IT” Scott Horton says US-Iran relations could have been normalized long ago, if not for Israeli opposition. Scott Horton: “Back in the 1990s, even Dick Cheney and Zbigniew Brzezinski supported normalization with Iran. Cheney wanted to build a pipeline through Iran and bring them into the business. Brzezinski said the revolution was in the past, and it was time to move on. Ronald Reagan sold Iran missiles through Israel just a year after the Beirut bombing. So this idea that we can’t deal with Iran is a myth. It wasn’t America that blocked normalization. It was Israel. Even under Labor, not just Likud. They needed a villain, and they turned on Iran.”

🇮🇷 INTERVIEW – SCOTT HORTON: “WE COULD HAVE NORMALIZED WITH IRAN DECADES AGO, BUT ISRAEL BLOCKED IT” Scott Horton says US-Iran relations could have been normalized long ago, if not for Israeli opposition. Scott Horton: “Back in the 1990s, even Dick Cheney and Zbigniew Brzezinski supported normalization with Iran. Cheney wanted to build a pipeline through Iran and bring them into the business. Brzezinski said the revolution was in the past, and it was time to move on. Ronald Reagan sold Iran missiles through Israel just a year after the Beirut bombing. So this idea that we can’t deal with Iran is a myth. It wasn’t America that blocked normalization. It was Israel. Even under Labor, not just Likud. They needed a villain, and they turned on Iran.”

Mario Nawfal

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Tucker Carlson on Iran: “The Iraq war was a catastrophe, and Trump was the first major political figure willing to say so. He’s always known it. So the question is: why would he even contemplate another war, this time with Iran? One answer is that Washington may not fully control whether such a war begins. Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu, could decide to strike Iran on its own, without coordination. If that happened, Iran would almost certainly retaliate against Israel, and could also hit U.S. assets and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. At that point, America would be pulled in automatically. From that perspective, the U.S. may not be seeking a war with Iran at all, but instead trying to restrain the actions of its closest ally and prevent a wider conflict.”

Tucker Carlson on Iran: “The Iraq war was a catastrophe, and Trump was the first major political figure willing to say so. He’s always known it. So the question is: why would he even contemplate another war, this time with Iran? One answer is that Washington may not fully control whether such a war begins. Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu, could decide to strike Iran on its own, without coordination. If that happened, Iran would almost certainly retaliate against Israel, and could also hit U.S. assets and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. At that point, America would be pulled in automatically. From that perspective, the U.S. may not be seeking a war with Iran at all, but instead trying to restrain the actions of its closest ally and prevent a wider conflict.”

Open Source Intel

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A power plant or a bridge for every tanker hit, that's the formula turning this into a regional energy war. Alex Christoforou breaks down how the conflict escalated into an energy war in all but name, with the Strait of Hormuz as the ultimate pressure point: "Iran understands this, and the last thing that Iran wants to have happen is a long, drawn out conflict, which is why they're going to hold on to the big leverage." Control of Hormuz is the whole game. Everything else is noise. Alex Christoforou

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A power plant or a bridge for every tanker hit, that's the formula turning this into a regional energy war. Alex Christoforou breaks down how the conflict escalated into an energy war in all but name, with the Strait of Hormuz as the ultimate pressure point: "Iran understands this, and the last thing that Iran wants to have happen is a long, drawn out conflict, which is why they're going to hold on to the big leverage." Control of Hormuz is the whole game. Everything else is noise. Alex Christoforou

Mario Nawfal

90,018 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – Manifold #98 Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term. On X: Scott Horton (00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98 (01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey (04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media (11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey (43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma (43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption (46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations (59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked?

Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – Manifold #98 Scott Horton is the author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Horton is a libertarian and anti-war activist. He and Steve discuss the Russia Hoax and its connection to American foreign policy, in light of new evidence that has emerged since the first Trump term. On X: Scott Horton (00:00) - Scott Horton on the Russia Hoax and Ukraine War – #98 (01:49) - Scott Horton's Political Journey (04:55) - The State of Public Awareness and Media (11:42) - Russiagate and the Indictment of James Comey (43:13) - Perjury and Obstruction Charges: The Virginia Trial Dilemma (43:51) - The Durham Investigation: Unveiling Corruption (46:28) - Post-Durham Report Revelations (59:04) - Ukraine Conflict: Provoked or Unprovoked?

steve hsu

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To the Iranian people: Stand firm. Do not bow, and do not take a single step back. In Washington, Trump is in a dilemma. He wanted a quick war and a show of force, but the truth is clear: the American people do not want this war, and even within the military there are those who refuse to sacrifice their lives in a conflict that is not theirs. They thought Iran would tremble… But today, it is Washington’s arrogance that is trembling.

To the Iranian people: Stand firm. Do not bow, and do not take a single step back. In Washington, Trump is in a dilemma. He wanted a quick war and a show of force, but the truth is clear: the American people do not want this war, and even within the military there are those who refuse to sacrifice their lives in a conflict that is not theirs. They thought Iran would tremble… But today, it is Washington’s arrogance that is trembling.

SilencedSirs◼️

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's former lawyer Robert Barnes thinks the U.S has entered the most dangerous phase of the Iran war. Not because America is getting stronger, but because it's running out of time. He believes Trump knows the window for this war is rapidly closing and that he can't sustain the conflict indefinitely. So instead, Trump's trying one final gamble: Escalate hard enough, and fast enough, that Iran finally breaks. The problem is that every new strike is hardening Iranian public opinion. A population that overwhelmingly opposed developing nuclear weapons before the conflict is, he says, becoming increasingly convinced they need one as the only reliable deterrent against another attack. That's why Robert believes Trump's strategy is fundamentally flawed. He's trying to force concessions from a country that now sees surrender as even more dangerous than war. Robert doesn't think America has the military, economic, or political capacity to keep this conflict going for months. His expectation is a short, intense escalation followed by Trump declaring victory and looking for an exit. But if Trump keeps trying to force one last breakthrough, Iran could retaliate by striking critical infrastructure across the Gulf. Trump may be escalating because he knows time is running out. But every escalation is making the outcome he wants less likely, not more. Robert Barnes

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's former lawyer Robert Barnes thinks the U.S has entered the most dangerous phase of the Iran war. Not because America is getting stronger, but because it's running out of time. He believes Trump knows the window for this war is rapidly closing and that he can't sustain the conflict indefinitely. So instead, Trump's trying one final gamble: Escalate hard enough, and fast enough, that Iran finally breaks. The problem is that every new strike is hardening Iranian public opinion. A population that overwhelmingly opposed developing nuclear weapons before the conflict is, he says, becoming increasingly convinced they need one as the only reliable deterrent against another attack. That's why Robert believes Trump's strategy is fundamentally flawed. He's trying to force concessions from a country that now sees surrender as even more dangerous than war. Robert doesn't think America has the military, economic, or political capacity to keep this conflict going for months. His expectation is a short, intense escalation followed by Trump declaring victory and looking for an exit. But if Trump keeps trying to force one last breakthrough, Iran could retaliate by striking critical infrastructure across the Gulf. Trump may be escalating because he knows time is running out. But every escalation is making the outcome he wants less likely, not more. Robert Barnes

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From “Hezbollah Is Defeated” to “Hezbollah Is Everywhere”: How Threat Inflation Becomes Strategy Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent claim that “Iran is in cahoots with Venezuela and is sending Hezbollah to the United States” marks a dramatic escalation in rhetoric, and a revealing shift in Israel’s strategic messaging. Only weeks earlier, Netanyahu and senior Israeli military officials were publicly asserting that Hezbollah’s capabilities had been largely dismantled. Now, the same actor is being presented not as weakened or contained, but as globally mobile, operating in Latin America and preparing attacks on U.S. soil. This contradiction is not incidental. It reflects a familiar pattern: as regional justifications lose force, the threat narrative expands geographically. When Hezbollah is no longer sufficient as a local enemy, it is reimagined as a hemispheric or even global one. The purpose of this expansion is not descriptive, it is political. It is designed to internationalize Israel’s wars and shift their burden outward. 📌The Strategic Function of Linking Iran to Venezuela The attempt to connect Iran, Hezbollah, and Venezuela is not a security discovery; it is a political construction. By invoking Venezuela, a state already framed in Washington as hostile, Netanyahu inserts Israel’s conflict into America’s own ideological and strategic architecture. This framing does not merely seek sympathy; it seeks entanglement. If Iran is no longer just a Middle Eastern actor but a Latin American one, then Israel’s war is no longer regional. It becomes America’s problem, America’s security, America’s war. 📌From Regional War to Global Escalation In recent years, Israel’s leadership has increasingly framed its conflicts not as territorial or political disputes, but as civilizational confrontations, “the free world versus barbarism,” “democracy versus terror,” and now, “Iran everywhere.” This logic contains a built-in escalatory mechanism: no victory is ever sufficient, because the threat is never localized or finite. It is always elsewhere, always expanding, always metastasizing. In this sense, the rhetoric does not aim to prevent war. It aims to normalize permanence, a condition in which war is not an event, but an environment. A regional war is dangerous but containable. A globalized war is open-ended, and therefore permanently mobilizing. 📌The Political Incentive Behind Permanent Crisis Netanyahu governs through crisis. Crisis postpones accountability, suppresses dissent, delays political reckoning, and overrides normal legal and democratic constraints. By presenting Israel not as a state among others but as the frontline of a global civilizational war, Netanyahu elevates his government from a political authority into a perceived necessity, insulated from criticism because it is framed as indispensable. This is why ceasefires are treated as defeats, de-escalation as danger, and diplomacy as appeasement. Peace is destabilizing, because peace returns politics. 📌Manufacturing a Global Enemy to Sustain a Permanent War The claim about Iran, Hezbollah, and Venezuela is not primarily about intelligence. It is about narrative control. It is the transformation of a regional conflict into a global moral emergency, one that demands permanent alignment, expanding resources, political impunity, and open-ended war. When leaders argue that enemies are everywhere, borders lose meaning, conflicts lose limits, and wars lose endpoints. What is being defended is no longer a state. It is a system of permanent confrontation. And in such a system, the greatest danger is not that war will spread unintentionally, but that it is being deliberately pushed outward.

From “Hezbollah Is Defeated” to “Hezbollah Is Everywhere”: How Threat Inflation Becomes Strategy Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent claim that “Iran is in cahoots with Venezuela and is sending Hezbollah to the United States” marks a dramatic escalation in rhetoric, and a revealing shift in Israel’s strategic messaging. Only weeks earlier, Netanyahu and senior Israeli military officials were publicly asserting that Hezbollah’s capabilities had been largely dismantled. Now, the same actor is being presented not as weakened or contained, but as globally mobile, operating in Latin America and preparing attacks on U.S. soil. This contradiction is not incidental. It reflects a familiar pattern: as regional justifications lose force, the threat narrative expands geographically. When Hezbollah is no longer sufficient as a local enemy, it is reimagined as a hemispheric or even global one. The purpose of this expansion is not descriptive, it is political. It is designed to internationalize Israel’s wars and shift their burden outward. 📌The Strategic Function of Linking Iran to Venezuela The attempt to connect Iran, Hezbollah, and Venezuela is not a security discovery; it is a political construction. By invoking Venezuela, a state already framed in Washington as hostile, Netanyahu inserts Israel’s conflict into America’s own ideological and strategic architecture. This framing does not merely seek sympathy; it seeks entanglement. If Iran is no longer just a Middle Eastern actor but a Latin American one, then Israel’s war is no longer regional. It becomes America’s problem, America’s security, America’s war. 📌From Regional War to Global Escalation In recent years, Israel’s leadership has increasingly framed its conflicts not as territorial or political disputes, but as civilizational confrontations, “the free world versus barbarism,” “democracy versus terror,” and now, “Iran everywhere.” This logic contains a built-in escalatory mechanism: no victory is ever sufficient, because the threat is never localized or finite. It is always elsewhere, always expanding, always metastasizing. In this sense, the rhetoric does not aim to prevent war. It aims to normalize permanence, a condition in which war is not an event, but an environment. A regional war is dangerous but containable. A globalized war is open-ended, and therefore permanently mobilizing. 📌The Political Incentive Behind Permanent Crisis Netanyahu governs through crisis. Crisis postpones accountability, suppresses dissent, delays political reckoning, and overrides normal legal and democratic constraints. By presenting Israel not as a state among others but as the frontline of a global civilizational war, Netanyahu elevates his government from a political authority into a perceived necessity, insulated from criticism because it is framed as indispensable. This is why ceasefires are treated as defeats, de-escalation as danger, and diplomacy as appeasement. Peace is destabilizing, because peace returns politics. 📌Manufacturing a Global Enemy to Sustain a Permanent War The claim about Iran, Hezbollah, and Venezuela is not primarily about intelligence. It is about narrative control. It is the transformation of a regional conflict into a global moral emergency, one that demands permanent alignment, expanding resources, political impunity, and open-ended war. When leaders argue that enemies are everywhere, borders lose meaning, conflicts lose limits, and wars lose endpoints. What is being defended is no longer a state. It is a system of permanent confrontation. And in such a system, the greatest danger is not that war will spread unintentionally, but that it is being deliberately pushed outward.

Ibrahim Majed

33,500 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

EP-07 with U.S. Foreign Policy Analyst Scott Horton premieres tomorrow at 12 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “Trump has given a lifeline to Netanyahu, and it shows he can’t completely destroy Hamas.” Scott Horton on the Israel–Hamas ceasefire deal “The so-called 12-day war is really only an intermission.” Scott Horton predicts another Iran–Israel war “The CIA knew AQ Khan stole the blueprints, and they let him leave the country.” Scott Horton “ISI supports groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, fanatics who could trigger a major confrontation.” Scott Horton #ANIBroadcast #Trump #Hamas #Ceasefire #Israel #Netanyahu #PeaceDeal #Pakistan #USA Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts:

EP-07 with U.S. Foreign Policy Analyst Scott Horton premieres tomorrow at 12 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “Trump has given a lifeline to Netanyahu, and it shows he can’t completely destroy Hamas.” Scott Horton on the Israel–Hamas ceasefire deal “The so-called 12-day war is really only an intermission.” Scott Horton predicts another Iran–Israel war “The CIA knew AQ Khan stole the blueprints, and they let him leave the country.” Scott Horton “ISI supports groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, fanatics who could trigger a major confrontation.” Scott Horton #ANIBroadcast #Trump #Hamas #Ceasefire #Israel #Netanyahu #PeaceDeal #Pakistan #USA Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts:

ANI

409,625 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

🇮🇷🇺🇸 U.S. bases in Iraq are one political shift away from being completely cut off and surrounded The moment Iraq's prime minister tilts toward Iran, every American soldier there becomes isolated with no clean exit, and Scott Horton is blunt: The U.S. should have left the day after 2003, and every day it stays makes the eventual cost higher. It's not a forever war by accident, but by institutional design. Scott Horton

🇮🇷🇺🇸 U.S. bases in Iraq are one political shift away from being completely cut off and surrounded The moment Iraq's prime minister tilts toward Iran, every American soldier there becomes isolated with no clean exit, and Scott Horton is blunt: The U.S. should have left the day after 2003, and every day it stays makes the eventual cost higher. It's not a forever war by accident, but by institutional design. Scott Horton

Mario Nawfal

112,894 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

NBC News’ Kristen Welker: “The Danish foreign minister says there hasn’t been a Chinese warship in Greenland for a decade. What evidence do you have that this is a pressing threat?” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “We have asymmetric information. And again, President Trump is being strategic here. What evidence was there that the Russians were going into Crimea? Well, actually there was a lot of evidence that the Russians were going to go into Ukraine. And Joe Biden said, ‘Well, just take a little bit of it.’” “But what we know is that the U.S., that Greenland can only be defended it if is part of the U.S. And it will not need to be defended if it is part of the U.S. The president is trying to avoid a conflict.”

NBC News’ Kristen Welker: “The Danish foreign minister says there hasn’t been a Chinese warship in Greenland for a decade. What evidence do you have that this is a pressing threat?” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “We have asymmetric information. And again, President Trump is being strategic here. What evidence was there that the Russians were going into Crimea? Well, actually there was a lot of evidence that the Russians were going to go into Ukraine. And Joe Biden said, ‘Well, just take a little bit of it.’” “But what we know is that the U.S., that Greenland can only be defended it if is part of the U.S. And it will not need to be defended if it is part of the U.S. The president is trying to avoid a conflict.”

RedWave Press

976,173 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Joe Kent thinks Trump is turning into the president he promised America he would never be Trump didn't campaign on policing Lebanon, protecting shipping lanes for countries that refuse to protect themselves, or getting dragged back into another endless Middle East conflict. He campaigned for NO MORE WARS. The same foreign policy establishment that told America Iraq would be quick, Afghanistan would be worth it, Libya would become a democracy, and Ukraine could weaken Russia indefinitely is now telling Trump that one more push, one more deployment, one more round of pressure will finally solve Iran. Joe's warning is that he's heard this story before. He spent years inside the national security apparatus watching Washington promise that every new intervention would be the last one. It never was. Joe believes Trump knows the American people are exhausted, knows the Iran campaign failed to deliver the decisive victory many promised, and knows the country wants to move on. The problem, he argues, is that every time Trump tries to step back, the same forces pull him back in. The military offers another plan, the foreign policy establishment says victory is just one more strike away, and Israel argues the job isn't finished. That's the trap Joe kept coming back to. Not that Trump has changed, but that Washington is trying to change him. Because once you accept the logic that America has to stay just a little longer, spend just a little more, and escalate just one more time, you've already accepted the logic that kept the U.S. stuck in the Middle East for a generation. Joe Kent

Joe Kent thinks Trump is turning into the president he promised America he would never be Trump didn't campaign on policing Lebanon, protecting shipping lanes for countries that refuse to protect themselves, or getting dragged back into another endless Middle East conflict. He campaigned for NO MORE WARS. The same foreign policy establishment that told America Iraq would be quick, Afghanistan would be worth it, Libya would become a democracy, and Ukraine could weaken Russia indefinitely is now telling Trump that one more push, one more deployment, one more round of pressure will finally solve Iran. Joe's warning is that he's heard this story before. He spent years inside the national security apparatus watching Washington promise that every new intervention would be the last one. It never was. Joe believes Trump knows the American people are exhausted, knows the Iran campaign failed to deliver the decisive victory many promised, and knows the country wants to move on. The problem, he argues, is that every time Trump tries to step back, the same forces pull him back in. The military offers another plan, the foreign policy establishment says victory is just one more strike away, and Israel argues the job isn't finished. That's the trap Joe kept coming back to. Not that Trump has changed, but that Washington is trying to change him. Because once you accept the logic that America has to stay just a little longer, spend just a little more, and escalate just one more time, you've already accepted the logic that kept the U.S. stuck in the Middle East for a generation. Joe Kent

Mario Nawfal

258,906 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Everyone assumes Trump wants control of the Strait of Hormuz. That may be a complete misread of the strategy. Economic and geopolitical analyst Tom Luongo argues Trump’s real goal is to avoid a failed state in Iran, push for a friendlier government, and get Arab states to manage more of their own security. He says the model is closer to building new regional frameworks for resolving specific conflicts, similar to the kind of structure he believes is emerging around Gaza. His point: Trump is not trying to seize the waterway. He is trying to create a system that can function without permanent U.S. control. Tom Luongo

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Everyone assumes Trump wants control of the Strait of Hormuz. That may be a complete misread of the strategy. Economic and geopolitical analyst Tom Luongo argues Trump’s real goal is to avoid a failed state in Iran, push for a friendlier government, and get Arab states to manage more of their own security. He says the model is closer to building new regional frameworks for resolving specific conflicts, similar to the kind of structure he believes is emerging around Gaza. His point: Trump is not trying to seize the waterway. He is trying to create a system that can function without permanent U.S. control. Tom Luongo

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be trapped between walking away from the Middle East looking defeated and staying in a conflict the U.S. cannot control. Glenn Diesen argues that Washington is getting pulled deeper into the fallout from the Iran war, from the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and tensions involving Turkey and Israel. “I think this is going to be the worst strategic defeat in U.S. history. There’s not many comparisons for how horrible this is going to be for the U.S. and its influence in the Middle East.” The deeper America gets pulled in, the harder it becomes to leave without paying a political price. Glenn Diesen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be trapped between walking away from the Middle East looking defeated and staying in a conflict the U.S. cannot control. Glenn Diesen argues that Washington is getting pulled deeper into the fallout from the Iran war, from the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and tensions involving Turkey and Israel. “I think this is going to be the worst strategic defeat in U.S. history. There’s not many comparisons for how horrible this is going to be for the U.S. and its influence in the Middle East.” The deeper America gets pulled in, the harder it becomes to leave without paying a political price. Glenn Diesen

Mario Nawfal

103,496 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has restarted a war he no longer controls, and Iran intends to make escape painfully difficult Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Trump believed he could inflict enough military pressure to force Iran back to the negotiating table, then declare victory and end the conflict whenever it became politically convenient. Instead, rather than giving him an easy off-ramp, Iran is trying to make the war so costly that he never thinks of doing it again. That's why Trita believes the economic pressure matters just as much as the missiles, because every additional cost increases the political pain of continuing the conflict. At the heart of the war is the Strait of Hormuz, and Trita argues this isn't really about shipping fees; it's about leverage. Iran believes control of the Strait is its single biggest deterrent against a full-scale American attack. Give that up, and Washington can launch another war with far fewer consequences. That's why he says Tehran is extremely unlikely to compromise on the issue, regardless of the military pressure. His warning is that this creates a dangerous cycle, because every failed attempt to force a breakthrough creates pressure for another escalation. Trita says that's how wars stop being short campaigns and start becoming open-ended conflicts. He puts the chances of the fighting escalating over the next month at more than 80%. Not because either side necessarily wants a forever war, but because both sides now believe backing down today makes an even bigger war tomorrow more likely. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has restarted a war he no longer controls, and Iran intends to make escape painfully difficult Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Trump believed he could inflict enough military pressure to force Iran back to the negotiating table, then declare victory and end the conflict whenever it became politically convenient. Instead, rather than giving him an easy off-ramp, Iran is trying to make the war so costly that he never thinks of doing it again. That's why Trita believes the economic pressure matters just as much as the missiles, because every additional cost increases the political pain of continuing the conflict. At the heart of the war is the Strait of Hormuz, and Trita argues this isn't really about shipping fees; it's about leverage. Iran believes control of the Strait is its single biggest deterrent against a full-scale American attack. Give that up, and Washington can launch another war with far fewer consequences. That's why he says Tehran is extremely unlikely to compromise on the issue, regardless of the military pressure. His warning is that this creates a dangerous cycle, because every failed attempt to force a breakthrough creates pressure for another escalation. Trita says that's how wars stop being short campaigns and start becoming open-ended conflicts. He puts the chances of the fighting escalating over the next month at more than 80%. Not because either side necessarily wants a forever war, but because both sides now believe backing down today makes an even bigger war tomorrow more likely. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

280,503 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump may be losing control of the conflict he claimed he could manage. Intelligence and counter-terrorism expert Malcolm Nance says Trump’s public claim that he could rein in Netanyahu has turned into a personal challenge for the Israeli PM. He argues Netanyahu’s massive strikes on Lebanon, coming right after U.S. pressure to back off, show Israel is following its own path regardless of Washington’s wishes. Trump is showing weakness to Iran, losing credibility, and watching the conflict move beyond his control. Malcolm Nance

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Trump may be losing control of the conflict he claimed he could manage. Intelligence and counter-terrorism expert Malcolm Nance says Trump’s public claim that he could rein in Netanyahu has turned into a personal challenge for the Israeli PM. He argues Netanyahu’s massive strikes on Lebanon, coming right after U.S. pressure to back off, show Israel is following its own path regardless of Washington’s wishes. Trump is showing weakness to Iran, losing credibility, and watching the conflict move beyond his control. Malcolm Nance

Mario Nawfal

37,608 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Do you agree with Republican Liz Cheney that we are "sleepwalking into a dictatorship? Cheney says of Trump: "He's told us what he will do. It's very easy to see the steps that he will take. … People who say, 'Well, if he's elected, it's not that dangerous because we have all of these checks and balances,' don't fully understand the extent to which the Republicans in Congress today have been co-opted. … One of the things that we see happening today is a sort of a sleepwalking into dictatorship in the United States." "If you look at what Donald Trump is trying to do, he can't do it by himself. He has to have collaborators. And the story of Mike Johnson is a story of, of a collaborator and of someone who knew then – and knows now – that what he's doing and saying is wrong, but he's willing to do it in an effort to please Donald Trump. And that's what makes it dangerous."

Do you agree with Republican Liz Cheney that we are "sleepwalking into a dictatorship? Cheney says of Trump: "He's told us what he will do. It's very easy to see the steps that he will take. … People who say, 'Well, if he's elected, it's not that dangerous because we have all of these checks and balances,' don't fully understand the extent to which the Republicans in Congress today have been co-opted. … One of the things that we see happening today is a sort of a sleepwalking into dictatorship in the United States." "If you look at what Donald Trump is trying to do, he can't do it by himself. He has to have collaborators. And the story of Mike Johnson is a story of, of a collaborator and of someone who knew then – and knows now – that what he's doing and saying is wrong, but he's willing to do it in an effort to please Donald Trump. And that's what makes it dangerous."

Brian Krassenstein

1,140,103 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

⚡️Tucker Carlson: Trump Is a “Slave” to Israel, May Be Getting Blackmailed by Netanyahu Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson publicly accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of exerting “extraordinary pressure” on President Donald Trump — pressure he suggested may include blackmail — as Trump attempts to negotiate an end to the war with Iran. In a BBC interview and in his Morning Note newsletter, Carlson said that Israel has a “storied history of blackmailing U.S. presidents,” including with sexual blackmail such as the alleged 1998 recordings of Bill Clinton. He suggested Trump may be facing a similarly “dark” level of coercion to launch and now continue the war. Carlson called Trump a “slave” to Israel, saying the president “can’t make his own decisions” and has been “hemmed in by other forces” — noting how the U.S. was “steered” into the Iran war by Netanyahu despite it not serving American interests. He described the conflict as the “single biggest mistake” of any American presidency in his lifetime and said the pressure on Trump is “dark enough” to force him to abandon his “America First” platform, turning him into “the precise kind of politician he once vowed to destroy.“

⚡️Tucker Carlson: Trump Is a “Slave” to Israel, May Be Getting Blackmailed by Netanyahu Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson publicly accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of exerting “extraordinary pressure” on President Donald Trump — pressure he suggested may include blackmail — as Trump attempts to negotiate an end to the war with Iran. In a BBC interview and in his Morning Note newsletter, Carlson said that Israel has a “storied history of blackmailing U.S. presidents,” including with sexual blackmail such as the alleged 1998 recordings of Bill Clinton. He suggested Trump may be facing a similarly “dark” level of coercion to launch and now continue the war. Carlson called Trump a “slave” to Israel, saying the president “can’t make his own decisions” and has been “hemmed in by other forces” — noting how the U.S. was “steered” into the Iran war by Netanyahu despite it not serving American interests. He described the conflict as the “single biggest mistake” of any American presidency in his lifetime and said the pressure on Trump is “dark enough” to force him to abandon his “America First” platform, turning him into “the precise kind of politician he once vowed to destroy.“

Drop Site

47,748 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The Iran war is sliding toward a point of no return. 🚨 Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) warns that current U.S. strategy is drifting towards what he calls the "escalation trap." If Trump falls into this trap of his own making, he risks a catastrophic failure because seeking the millitarily unattainable political objective of regime change solely though the air “leads directly to a ground conflict that begins limited and then expands.” We are fast approaching “stage three: limited territorial control, which never stays limited.” This was President LBJ's fatal miscalculation in the early stages of the Vietnam War, and Trump is careening towards the same mistake in Iran. While initial strikes caused much damage and death in Iran, it did not produce the hoped for politcal outcome (unconditional surrender). The next phase could trigger an uncontrollable escalation. This is “the true red line in this escalation cycle” that must not be crossed if we are to avoid a total Middle East conflict spiral. 👇 WATCH the full analysis here: 👉 #IranWar #USStrategy #MiddleEastConflict #RobertPape #NationalSecurity #WarRoom #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #BreakingNews #DanielDavisDeepDive #StraitOfHormuz #Escalation

The Iran war is sliding toward a point of no return. 🚨 Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) warns that current U.S. strategy is drifting towards what he calls the "escalation trap." If Trump falls into this trap of his own making, he risks a catastrophic failure because seeking the millitarily unattainable political objective of regime change solely though the air “leads directly to a ground conflict that begins limited and then expands.” We are fast approaching “stage three: limited territorial control, which never stays limited.” This was President LBJ's fatal miscalculation in the early stages of the Vietnam War, and Trump is careening towards the same mistake in Iran. While initial strikes caused much damage and death in Iran, it did not produce the hoped for politcal outcome (unconditional surrender). The next phase could trigger an uncontrollable escalation. This is “the true red line in this escalation cycle” that must not be crossed if we are to avoid a total Middle East conflict spiral. 👇 WATCH the full analysis here: 👉 #IranWar #USStrategy #MiddleEastConflict #RobertPape #NationalSecurity #WarRoom #Geopolitics #ForeignPolicy #BreakingNews #DanielDavisDeepDive #StraitOfHormuz #Escalation

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

36,354 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE VIETNAM PARALLEL: LOST CONTROL IN IRAN You can start a war with a plan for it to be "quick and surgical," but once the first shot is fired, you lose control of how it ends. Glenn Greenwald warns that even a president who genuinely wants to avoid war can be sucked into a quagmire, much like Lyndon Johnson was in Vietnam. With Iran showing no signs of unconditional surrender or regime collapse, the U.S. is finding it increasingly difficult to extricate itself from a conflict that has taken on a life of its own. Glenn Greenwald

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE VIETNAM PARALLEL: LOST CONTROL IN IRAN You can start a war with a plan for it to be "quick and surgical," but once the first shot is fired, you lose control of how it ends. Glenn Greenwald warns that even a president who genuinely wants to avoid war can be sucked into a quagmire, much like Lyndon Johnson was in Vietnam. With Iran showing no signs of unconditional surrender or regime collapse, the U.S. is finding it increasingly difficult to extricate itself from a conflict that has taken on a life of its own. Glenn Greenwald

Mario Nawfal

63,358 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

General Shekarchi of the IRGC has issued a strategic warning, explicitly stating that Iran is not merely prepared for a U.S. ground intervention but is actively waiting for it to begin. Shekarchi confirms that while the Resistance has already made the U.S. helpless from afar, the goal of close combat" is to create a slaughter so absolute that it deters military service in the West for generations. The IRGC is betting on a strategic mistake by Washington. By forcing U.S. forces out of their fortified shells and into a high-intensity ground war, the Resistance intends to transform the battlefield into a global lesson in the limits of imperial power.

General Shekarchi of the IRGC has issued a strategic warning, explicitly stating that Iran is not merely prepared for a U.S. ground intervention but is actively waiting for it to begin. Shekarchi confirms that while the Resistance has already made the U.S. helpless from afar, the goal of close combat" is to create a slaughter so absolute that it deters military service in the West for generations. The IRGC is betting on a strategic mistake by Washington. By forcing U.S. forces out of their fortified shells and into a high-intensity ground war, the Resistance intends to transform the battlefield into a global lesson in the limits of imperial power.

Thomas Keith

13,104 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten