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🇺🇸🇮🇷 One unavoidable fact: Trump desperately needs a victory but has no clear path to one. Professor Radhika Desai breaks down exactly how this unraveled. "He's bitten off way more than he can chew... we find ourselves nearly 50 days later, with Trump sinking deeper into the mother of...

61,312 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump remains trapped because he still refuses to accept how much leverage Iran possesses. He still thinks overwhelming American power will eventually force Tehran to give in, and political scientist Ian Bremmer says that's the mistake keeping this war alive. Instead, Iran has shown it can keep raising the economic cost of the war without crossing Trump's red lines. Ian doesn't think Iran believes it can defeat the U.S militarily; it believes it can make continuing the war more painful than ending it. And so far, it's working. Trump keeps threatening to destroy Iran's infrastructure, eliminate its leadership and dramatically escalate the conflict. But Ian points to something more revealing than Trump's rhetoric: His actions. Despite months of fighting, Trump has avoided the biggest escalations. No ground invasion, no sustained campaign against Iran's energy sector, and no full-scale assault on the country's leadership. Even after American casualties, his instinct has repeatedly been to play them down rather than use them to justify a much wider war. And Tehran has noticed. It increasingly sees a president who talks like he's preparing for total war but behaves like someone searching for an exit. The bigger problem, Ian says, is inside the White House itself. Trump's advisers know the military and economic costs are mounting, and many want the war to end, but very few are willing to tell Trump the uncomfortable truth: Iran has far more leverage over how this ends than Washington expected. Until Trump accepts that reality, Ian believes a genuine compromise remains unlikely. ian bremmer

Mario Nawfal

379,949 просмотров • 14 дней назад

Trump's Fmr. Lawyer Robert Barnes says Trump thinks he's escalating to make Iran capitulate, but in reality, Tehran has learned how to play him. That is what makes this moment so dangerous. Trump appears to believe the war can still be ended quickly if he just applies a little more pressure and moves further up the escalation ladder. Then wait for Iran to surrender, but Robert says Iran is never going to give him that. For Trump, this is a war he wants to finish on favorable terms; for Iran, it's existential. That means Washington and Tehran are not operating with the same tolerance for pain, the same timeline, or the same definition of victory. And Tehran now understands the man across the table better than he understands himself. Iran has watched Trump repeatedly convince himself that another strike will finally produce the submission the previous strikes failed to achieve. Then, when the opposite happens, he becomes frustrated and escalates again. Iran appears to be exploiting that weakness with a disciplined tit-for-tat strategy rather than random escalation or total war. Each move raises the cost without immediately giving Trump the clean pretext he might want for unlimited escalation. Robert thinks Iran is studying his psychology and asking one question before every major action: Will this provoke him too early, or will it punish and humiliate him at exactly the right moment? That distinction is crucial because humiliation may be Trump’s greatest vulnerability. Robert Barnes

Mario Nawfal

374,241 просмотров • 21 дней назад