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Ooops wrong drink~~~~ animation: doki🌲🌲 big fat dog: Thumbs Up Guy! small corgi: 🍞Shortstack CorgBee🍞

28,225 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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My neighbor always walks the dog at all hours of the day, rain or shine. She has a huge dog she can’t control, it actually walks her most of the time. This guy here has no excuse letting his dog on a leash get away, that thing is tiny. Yet he thinks it’s the man’s fault that his dog got nudged. What would you do if your neighbors dog got loose and they blamed your dog reacting to it, he needs to get his dog under control and get a life. Anyways, the neighbor with the big dog was walking her dog and it got away from her and ran into the street. Another neighbor was coming home from work and didn’t have time to react to it, she ended up hitting the dog causing a good amount of damage to her car and scuffing up the dog pretty good. The lady walking her dog had a fit of course and blamed the neighbor for hitting her dog. The neighbor retorted that she wouldn’t have hit it if the lady had it under control and isn’t run into the street. The lady ended up calling the cops, the cops came and cleared the neighbor of wrong doing. There were plenty of witnesses that saw it and we all see the dog pulling her all the time anyways. After the accident we didn’t see the lady walking her dog much anymore, her oldest son would do it most of the time to his annoyance but it was a better thing, he could control it where as his mother could not. I didn’t want to involve myself in their argument but I did tell the lady it was her fault, and that she needs to pay for the other neighbors car. Up until that point she was refusing to cooperate much. I never did ask if she paid but I have a feeling she did, the neighbor can be quite convincing when she needs to be.

SonnyBoy🇺🇸

55,534 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

Auditioning is a completely different performance than how you’d perform it when you get the job. Most actors don’t realize that. What do I mean? In an audition, I only have 1 set up, 1 frame from the chest up. On set you’ll have multiple set ups and multiple camera lens sizes. So for example if I have to do a very explosive emotional scene for an audition I’m beholden to that one set up which is the chest up how casting likes it. BUT if I’m too big and too emotional for that frame size it might come off as melodramatic/Over-acting or I’m forcing it. So I have to do a little less. Now on set during the master I can be as big and as ferocious as I want and then dial it down as the camera moves in closer. The same goes if it has to be small and intimate scene, I might have to project a bit more to convey that emotion in an audition where if it was on set that close up sees everything and I can be as small an intimate as I want. So during these auditions you’re predominantly handcuffed to the size of the frame that casting wants. I like to be subtle in auditions and sometimes that can look like you’re doing absolutely nothing and its not as engaging for the audition process. (You’re trying to get a job) So I amp it up 10-20%. Again, where as on set I can be as small and subtle as I want and when they move in on your close up it sees the minutia of every detail that your face and eyes make. (Also in an audition you’re acting with a friend or a family member who might not be an actor. No professional makeup or hair, bad lighting, dog barking, cat meowing, fedex guy ringing your bell,etc etc) So to recap… AUDITIONING SUCKS!🤦🏻‍♂️ #kidvicious🔪

KID VICIOUS🔪

22,555 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Stop stepping over dollars to pick up pennies! Focus on the BIG stuff ✍️ Weight loss requires some form of restriction but you can choose the FORM of restriction that FEELS the least restrictive to you! Such as: ✅Tracking macros/calories ✅Time restricted eating ✅Dietary restriction like low carb, plant based, low fat, etc Choose a form of restriction that feels easiest to YOU because in the literature none of these methods show up as being superior for long term weight loss or adherence. So choose what feels easiest for YOU Most people spend way too much mind space and energy on my new details that don’t really matter much. Put your time and energy into the stuff that makes the biggest difference for health and longevity. ✅Maintain a normal/lean body fat ✅Exercise regularly ✅Don’t smoke ✅Don’t drink or do drugs ✅Get enough sleep ✅Manage psychological stress I’m not saying you can never have a late night or you don’t get enough sleep. I’m not saying you can’t be healthy and never have a drink. I’m not saying you can’t be healthy and have an occasional cigar or enjoy the occasional edible. I’m not saying you can’t miss some workouts here and there. I’m not saying your nutrition have to be perfect. What I’m saying is that over the course of your life if you get those six things right 90% of the time, you will be doing better than 99% of people. 99% of people stress about small details or require themselves to be perfect and when they are not, they go completely crazy and binge eat or binge drink, or insert whatever other vice you can think of Don’t focus on perfection or tiny details. Focus on doing the big things right consistently 90% of the time, and you’ll be better off than the vast majority of people. But many of you spend tons of time and stress on shit that doesn’t matter hardly at all. I have news for you, the amount of stress you are spending on the little things that don’t really matter is killing you faster & making you more unhealthy than getting the little things wrong Consistency>perfection From 2 Bears 1 Cave with Tom Segura AKA Mr. Ladybug YMH Studios bert kreischer

Layne Norton, PhD

43,374 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

This is the boomer uncle who Raj Shamani invited to his podcast to talk on medical and health. The guy who said "Ghee" (also called clarified butter) is a fat burner. Ghee is heavy on saturated fats and every single nutrition and cardiology clinical societies recommend limiting saturated fats. See here: American Heart Association Presidential Advisory on Dietary Fats For lack of a better description, protoplasmic masses without neuronal cohesion, like this guy here, Mr. Prashant Desai, who has absolutely no training in medical and healthcare, who flaunts toilet paper value nutrition certificates for his video background and without an ounce of scientific temper, talking absolute rubbish on nutrition and diet are the ones the public must stay away from. Look at this video. Nutrition and diet specialist Prashant Desai is holding up a bottle of alcohol and claiming that is causes "non-alcoholic" fatty liver. I mean it is like trying to convince the public by holding up a cat and saying its a dog. Basic IQ anyone? Mr. Desai further says non-alcoholic fatty liver never existed in children before 1980. This is absolutely wrong. Fatty liver had been identified in overfed children as early as 1849. His claim that fruit juice is the same as alcohol is also nonsense. He has no actual idea how nutrient metabolism works. Metabolism of alcohol and that of fruit juice (fructose) is completely different. High fructose intake is associated with increased risk of fatty liver disease. Even fresh fruits have fructose in them. The added sugars cause more harm than the natural sugars in your recommended daily portion of fruits/ fruit juices. See here: Alcohol metabolism and fatty liver: Fructose metabolism and fatty liver: Listen to certified clinical nutritionists and doctors. Reject fearmongering nutritional quacks like these. Their narratives harm the public health.

TheLiverDoc™

847,729 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Brace yourselves for peak adorable mayhem: “Big Sister vs. The Tiny Terror – Snow Edition: Operation Fluff Conversion.” This squishy-faced rottie menace Kenji acts like the bravest little lion inside the house—charging around like he owns the place, barking at his own shadow, launching fearless attacks on my tail like a tiny warrior with zero chill. But the second we step outside? Total personality flip. He patters down the ramp after me, then freezes at the bottom and delivers the most dramatic, wide-eyed puppy betrayal stare at the snow, like I just asked him to wrestle a polar bear. “Sis, this white stuff is COLD and WEIRD and definitely out to get my perfect paws.🐾 Indoors bravery: 100. Outdoors bravery: big fat zero.”Cue me, the overworked but devoted big sis turned professional hype machine: unleashing the goofiest, bounciest zoomie performance of my career. Boinging like a kangaroo who chugged an entire espresso bar, play-bowing with the silliest grin and helicopter tail, flopping dramatically into snow angels just to yell (in dog) “IT’S THE BEST THING EVER, YOU TINY CHICKEN NUGGET, COME LIVE YOUR BEST LIFE!” We played the most hilariously rigged puppy Olympics race ever: me powering through the snowy side like a furry freestyle skier shredding fresh powder with zero brakes, while Baby Kenji tippy-toe prances up and down the clear ramp like a pampered prince inspecting his kingdom. (He had EVERY advantage… and still got absolutely dusted by my snow tornado.) Then comes the moment that melted my grumpy heart♥️: I zip back up the ramp, skid past him with the ultimate puppy taunt “Bet you can’t catch me, slowpoke!” and—OH MY DOG—those adorable floppy ears flap like helicopter blades, that chunky butt wiggles like crazy, and he actually LAUNCHES into the cutest, clumsiest, most determined waddle on ice you’ve ever seen, chasing me all the way back inside like a tiny brave hero finally discovering joy. We burst through the door in a whirlwind of happy paws, snowy kisses, and mutual victory zoomies. My heart grew three sizes. His bravery level: officially unlocked (at least for today). Big sister battery: recharged by pure squish. Patience: magically restored. Cuteness: weaponized and hazardous to your inner grinch.♥️☃️ If this made you squeal like a kettle, clutch your chest, or replay the video on loop while whispering “look at the baby goooo,” please tag every dog lover you know, smash that share button so the whole internet can die of cute aggression over Kenji’s epic glow-up from indoor tough guy to outdoor snow rookie turned chase champion, and flood the comments with your own big-sis/little-bro puppy stories—we need the fluff, the photos, the chaos, all of it! Who else has a house-brave pup who turns into a total snow wimp outside? 🐶❄️ #SnowZoomies #RottieBabies #BigSisterWins #KenjiTheTinyHero #IndoorBraveOutdoorScared #PuppyGlowUp #CutenessAttack #FloppyEarGang 🎥 Puppy Olympics snow race with me doing epic bouncies

Team Servicerottie🇨🇦🐕‍🦺🦽

10,628 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Bill Nye “The Science Guy” said on CNN this morning that forest fires never used to happen in the Carolinas until now. 🗨️ “There's forest fires, wildfires in the Carolinas—that didn't used to be a thing, everybody.” That sounds scary. 😱 Big, if true. But, had Nye done any actual research, he might be aware that his DNC talking points don't quite square with the facts. 🔎📖 The South Carolina South Carolina Forestry Commission (SCFC) has a wealth of information on their website. 💻 🔥 Based on the last 30 years of data, ~3,000 fires break out in South Carolina each year. 🌲 About 18,000 acres are set ablaze annually. 🪵 229,908 acres of land burned in 1950 alone, the most in a single calendar year in the Palmetto state. Of the top 10 years with the most fire burn acreage, nine of them were prior to 1970 and seven of them were at least 70 years ago. 📉 Annual fire burn acreage has decreased by 72.5% (1950-79 vs. 1994-2023). Any emergent climate signal is masked by interannual variability and increased fire suppression in the area. 🔗 🔗 The largest [official] fire on record in South Carolina was the Clear Pond Fire of April 10-15, 1976. It began as an unattended campfire between Conway and Myrtle Beach, and ended up burning 30,000 acres of land in Horry County in the span of five days. For perspective, the current blaze has burned 1,600 acres. 🔗 An even larger fire occurred in mid-February 1898. It seared through an estimated three million acres that stretched from Aiken County, South Carolina to Chatham County, North Carolina, and killed at least 14 people in its path. 🔗 🔗 Bill Nye has no clue what he's talking about. He's just making stuff up and the CNN “journalists” nod in blind agreement.

Chris Martz

76,592 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I’ve been meaning to share here that I bought land! Growing up I vividly remember going to the welfare office with my mom. Public school, free lunches & section 8 housing made life possible. I wanted more for myself so I studied, worked my ass off, and put myself in the way of getting lucky. I pivoted into tech in my late 20’s, and was already a mom of 2 at that point. It was not an immediate up and to the right journey. In fact, my first startup failed. And it was entirely bootstrapped so I lost all the money I’d put into it. After working at other companies for some years I was ready to try again but then I nearly failed at fundraising. It was humbling to hear no after no but I just kept learning and adapting. I have always played long games and I’m willing to take a lot of pain in the short-term to realize big goals. People who know my full life story say it’s so hard to believe that I am in this position today, but it’s not by accident. I built this life brick by brick. Odds were stacked against me but I found joy in the challenge of doing hard things. Much of my success is from being pushed down and told I couldn’t make it. I love proving people wrong. Back to the land. I started dreaming of this project over a decade ago, back when I had no money to do it. But I talked about it to friends constantly like it was inevitable - because even though I didn’t know *how* it would happen, I began believing it would. Here we are and now it’s a key piece of what I want to accomplish in my next act. I want to create a place that people come to for reflection, to unwind from the grind, and to build meaningful connection to self and others. I want to host salons to discuss and debate interesting topics with the smartest people I can find. Breakthroughs will happen round a fire, while lounging poolside, and while gazing up at the stars through the trees. It took a year of searching for land but we found a spot just 1 hour north of San Francisco. It’s got some beautiful bones and infrastructure on it already but there’s a lot to imagine and build to realize the dream. Everything big starts small. So, we put up our first tree swings, hammocks and a canvas tent. 🏕️ If you’re into that kind of journey then I’ll be posting more about it on IG and may create an account just for that work. I’ve never owned land so 10 acres is an amazing canvas to create and learn on. There will be mistakes and setbacks, There always are. But I can’t wait to see what gets accomplished in the next decade! (And no, I am not quitting my job at Meta - this project is my side gig for the foreseeable future. I’m lucky to have the best guy I know focused on it full-time.) As the corporate truism goes - team work makes the dream work. LFG! 💕

Esther Crawford ✨

51,518 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

This is the biggest thing I've ever done, I hope you spare some time to read through it 🙏 I am pleased to announce that I have found investors and have now raised the funds needed to launch GREENMAN FILM STUDIOS, a video production house focusing on live action content shot in 3D enviornments. ( like the example in the video ) using the top industry standard CGI software mixed with my GreenMan 'lets Macguyver everything' style, we will have the ability to make near-hollywood level CGI content for 1000s of times cheaper than big film studios. we will be making everything from short stories, funny commercials, skits, to full blown action/drama/comedy series in a way and to a level that hasnt been done before. (basically just like everything I do lol) This gives us a unique way to produce content that not only tells amazing stories, but also gives us the ability to make content to market products for small/med/large businesses. To do this, we are also partnering with a startup app that connects advertisers (that want to market their products in a more cost-effective way than buying TV commercials and airtime) to rising stars in the content creator community. - WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CREATORS: if you have been following me for a while you know I hate low effort, low frequency content. what we're planning to create here is not only a movie studio, but a hub to teach creators how create better content, how to network with others to create their own 'indie film studio' (all you need to get started is a person good at writing, one thats good at video, and one sound guy and you have the framework) and once they have honed their skills and are making cool stuff, there are advertisers waiting that suit their style of content. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR ADVERTISERS: do you have a business that makes it hard or too expensive to have professional level advertising made in a authentic and creative way? maybe you own a small energy drink company or you've created an AI helper tool... or even a small mom and pops family run arms dealer, we will give you high quality, super afforable solutions to market your products in a very unique way - if you're sick of low effort one liner type content and know that its not only stupid, cheap, and lame but also an unsustainable way to make a living as a creator... if you are willing to work hard for a very long time getting nothing in return except getting better at your craft until its good enough to earn you a serious living... then this is for you. this project is going to take some time to get off the ground. I am currently looking at premesis's to set up the studio space and talking to a few VFX artists about the various worlds we want to create. If you are someone who really wants to create cool visual content then this is your chance. spend this time finding people that complement your skill set, finding your style and practicing making cool stuff. when the time comes, we can help you elevate that to the next level, ready to entice advertisers. I'll be making a video in the next week explaining everything in more detail with cooler visuals and stuff but for now, thats the announcement. I cant tell you how pumped I am for whats about to come, I cant wait to show you all! (*the footage below is from a short film series called 'Dynamo Dreams')

GreenMan

33,400 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

WATCH: Trump's full answer on the federal judge's ruling about the East Wing ballroom construction... .New York Post’s Steven Nelson: “A judge just ordered you to stop construction of the ballroom. Are you planning to stop?” President Trump: “Well, we’ll appeal, but it’s not — I don’t know — it’s basically — I mean, I wrote [sic] — I wrote [sic] wrote part of his opinion. But basically he’s saying I need congressional approval. And he's so wrong. This is being financed privately. It’s a donation that's being given by companies, very rich companies, very rich people, so that, for 150 years, they’ve wanted a ballroom here. We’re going to have the finest ballroom, I believe, anywhere in the world. And he said we need congressional approval. Well, they don’t give congressional approval from the White House when they do things — they don’t — especially when, you know, we didn't ask for any tax money. We have no taxes — this is taxpayer free. We have no taxpayer putting up $0.10 and I see right here. Just write it out. He said we need congressional approval. Well, we've many things at the White House over the years and they don't get congressional approval when they build it in the White House. It’s just totally separate, especially when it's a donation. I mean, the ballroom is a donation. It's gotten great reviews. People love it. And presidents for 150 years have wanted this ballroom to be built because what we have president Xi or other presidents or prime minister is coming, we don’t have a big room. We have the East Room, which is very small and he said we need congressional approval. He also said, but this is positive for us — I'm allowed — meaning we — are allowed to continue building necessary to — let's see — what is that to — safety and security of the White House and its grounds. So, it says here very carefully the safety and security have to be protected in the White House grounds. Well, that’s what we’re doing because everything's bulletproof glass and center and center, including the ballroom and it goes, construction and all of the things necessary, it says, personal safety of the President and his staff are a part of that. So, it talks about that we’re allowed to continue building. In other words, he put an order on and — even that, he gave 14 days. We don't need it. Because that's what we're doing. He’s allowed to continue building as necessary and when it talks about the safety and security of the White House and its grounds. So, just — so, you know, I wrote some of the things we a drone proof roof and it talks about the president and its staff. Well, we don’t have a lot of bulletproof glass. The White House was built a long time ago. This has the highest level of — in fact, they call this graph — this grass — this — the glass — it's been a bulletproof and its ballistic prove. It's very thick. It’s like that. And it's going 45 feet high and every window is covered, every door is covered. The roof is drone-proof. We have secure air handling systems. You know, bad things happen in the air if you have bad people. We have bio defense all over. We have a secure telecommunications and communications all over. We have bomb shelters that we're building. We have a hospital and very major medical facilities that we’re building. We have all of these things. So, that's called I'm allowed to continue building as necessary. So, think of that — for the safety of the President ---- so we have all these things. So, on that, we’re okay. Where he's totally wrong and he made in a statement, that's fine, but we're really — I’ll give you an example. You have right here, $300 to 400 million depending on finishes. If I use very expensive, marble, if I use very expensive wall coatings, if I — I could bring it up to 400. Otherwise, we're right now ahead of schedule, we’re under budget. But depending on finishes from $300 to 400 million are being given by great people — people that you all know — rich people, companies, big companies, they wanted to see this bill because every president literally for 150 years as needed a space like this. Many of you have got to that tent when we have president of a big country or somebody being honored of great distinction. And they said in a tent. And, if it rains, you get so because the grass gets wet here very fast. It's a very wet area. They used to call it a wetland, But I guess don't do that from the White House, but it's essentially a wetland. And when it rains, you're in trouble. the water can go up to 3 to 4 inches over their shoes. That's not a good feeling for prince — what — who was Prince Charles, who will — who will be here next couple of weeks — is King Charles, who’s a great guy. We don't want him to sit in a pool of water and they've been wanting this for 100 — think of it — 150 years and we’re building it and it’s covered perfectly. What's not covered perfectly is the fact that the judge said we need congressional approval. Many things have built in the White House. They haven’t gotten congressional approval, especially when the money is being not put up by the taxpayer. The taxpayers aren’t putting up a dime. This building was necessary for many years by the fact that I've many ballrooms and I’ve built many things that I know how to build. I’m not building the Federal Reserve where the guy’s spending $4 billion for a tiny little building — $4 billion for the federal reserve building. That contractor’s going to be one of the richest men anywhere in the world after he finishes the Federal Reserve. The man is totally incompetent. Jerome “Too Late” Powell is totally incompetent. And he’s got to get out of office pretty fast. He's doing a bad job, but he’s also done a bad job in shepherding the construction in that building. You know, they ripped down the part of that building and it was a nice — they say it’s one of the nicest buildings in Washington. They ripped it down. So — so, we feel and we don't feel, we know that congressional approval is not necessary to put up a ballroom and with many things they’ve built on the site they never got congressional approval especially with the money is all put up — this is all donations by people that love our country that love the White House and that feel it was very necessary.”

Curtis Houck

50,786 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Renaissance history is so much wilder and weirder than you would have expected. Very fun chatting w Ada Palmer about it. Some especially fascinating things I learned from the conversation and her excellent book, Inventing the Renaissance: Not only did Gutenberg go bankrupt in the 1450s (after inventing the printing press), but so did the bank that foreclosed on him, and so did his apprentices. This is because paper was still very expensive, and so you had to make this big upfront CAPEX decision to print a batch of 300 copies of a book - say the Bible. But he's in a small landlocked German town where only priests are allowed to read the Bible - so he sells maybe 7 copies. It’s only when this technology ends up in Venice, where you can hand 10 copies to each of 30 ship captains going to 30 different cities, that it starts taking off. Speaking of which, the printing revolution wasn’t just one single discrete event, just as the computer revolution has been this whole century of going from mainframes -> personal computers -> phones -> social media, each with different and accelerating social impact. Books came first, but they’re slow to print, and made in small batches. The real revolution is pamphlets - much faster, much harder to censor. Pamphlet runners are how you can have Luther's 95 Theses go from Wittenberg to London in 17 days. So much other wild stuff from this episode. For example, did you know that the largest and best-funded experimental laboratory in 17th century Europe was very likely the Roman one run by inquisitors? Ada jokes that the Inquisition accidentally invented peer review. The focus of the Inquisition is really misunderstood - it was obsessed with catching dangerous new heretics like Lutherans and Calvinists - it only executed one person for doing science. And this leads Ada to make an observation that I think is really wise: the authorities and censors are always worried about the exact wrong things given 20/20 hindsight. When Inquisition raids an underground bookshop during the French Enlightenment, they don’t mind the Rousseau, Voltaire, and Encyclopédie, but they lose their minds about some Jansenist treatises about the technical nature of the Trinity. More broadly, a lesson for me from this episode is that it’s just really hard to shape history in the specific way that you want to impact things. One of the most famous medieval scholars is this guy Petrarch. He survives the Black Death in the 1340s, watches his friends die to plague and bandits, and says: our leaders are selfish and terrible, we need to raise them on the Roman classics so they'll act like Cicero. So Europe pours money into finding ancient manuscripts, building libraries, and educating princes on classical virtues. Those princes grow up and fight bigger, nastier wars than ever before with new deadlier technology. And this, combined with greater urbanization and endemic plague, results in European life expectancy decreasing from 35 in the medieval period to 18 during the Renaissance (the period which we in retrospect think of as a golden age but which many people living through it thought of as the continuation of the dark ages that had persisted since the fall of Rome). Anyways, the libraries Petrarch inspires stick around, the printing press makes them accessible to everyone, and 200 years later a generation of medical students is reading Lucretius and asking "what if there are atoms and that's how diseases work?" which eventually leads to germ theory, vaccines, and a cure for the Black Death (Ada has longer more involved explanation of how cosplaying the Romans results through a series of many steps to the scientific revolution). Petrarch wanted to produce philosopher-kings that shared his values. Instead he created a world that doesn't share his values at all but can cure the disease that destroyed his. So much other interesting stuff in the full episode - hope you enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00:00 - How cosplaying Ancient Rome led to the Renaissance 0:28:49 - How Florence's weird republic worked 0:38:13 - How the Medicis took over Florence 0:58:12 - Why it was so hard for Gutenberg to make any money off the printing press 1:17:34 - Why the industrial revolution didn't happen in Italy 1:23:02 - The slow diffusion of paper through Europe 1:41:21 - The Inquisition accidentally invented peer review Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.

Dwarkesh Patel

393,991 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.

Jaynit

96,516 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

If you want to understand Asian geopolitics today, this is an absolute must-watch. This is George Yeo, who was a Singaporean cabinet minister during 21 years, including Minister for Foreign Affairs during 7 years. In my humble opinion, very few people out there have such a subtle understanding of geopolitics in Asia as he does. Here's a quick summary of what he says: The US has little knowledge of China He says that "the US political system is decentralized and because of the need to win votes, it goes through emotional phases and is entering such a phase now where China is demonized out of mass emotion. There's some manipulation behind the scenes, but it's not based on knowledge." To him, the US "don't understand the nature of China", the fact that China "is constantly building walls around itself because it is happy in its own homogeneity". He says it is wrong for the US to believe that "China wants to displace them as the top dog in the world" and "trying to contain China, even pull it down" as a result. Not only is this a wrong understanding of China's objectives but the US "may exhaust itself in the process and I don't think it will succeed". He says that with its tariffs and sanctions the US risks making the same mistake as China's Qing dynasty and "become very weak". He believes the primacy of the US dollar will break, and that US actions are "bringing forward that day" He says that "the key event will be when the primacy of the US dollar breaks. We all know it's going to break sometime or other because it's abnormal. If it is 30 years from now, well, let's drink and be merry. But if it's five years, well, we've got to calculate, right? Do we know when the cookie will crumble? We don't know. But the way the US is moving is bringing forward that day." It's "bringing forward that day" because "they try to control countries by sanctions" and as a result more and more countries put counter-measures in place, putting themselves out of the grasp of the US. China is not in trouble and "overcapacity" is "information warfare" He says "there's information warfare against China" and that he "doesn't think" China is in trouble. "Look at the factories, look at the EVs, look at how terrified the Europeans are, accusing China of having overcapacity. I mean, how can you blame China for overcapacity when you have, when you're taking liberties with yourself, having long summers and working short hours and you say no, no, no, no, no, you are working too hard! There are consequences. If families take liberties with their children, with themselves, there's consequences." He believes that Asian societies' "wholesomeness" is an advantage versus the West "Look at Asia, look at China, look at Southeast Asia, look at India. There are people who are hardworking, who are obsessed over their children, who want to have of them a higher education, in order that the kids will have a better education, better health, a better life. [...] They'll do well and we're lucky to be in the part of the world where strange values have not taken over societies. [...] Why is America such a big market for drugs today? And I was watching the Eurovision contest... [...] Parts of it, almost satanic. But it's now part of the fashion in most of Europe. What is happening? PM Lee talked about how we should keep all these woke things away from us as much as possible. I fully agree with him. Keep our societies wholesome. Keep our families intact. I mean, AI is very important, but AI cannot answer moral questions for us. In the end, it is every individual, every child who must make the choice. Be immersed in technology. Make use of it. But have our own sense of what it means to be a human being. So if we use that as a template to judge human society, I say we are very lucky to be in a part of the world where society is by and large wholesome and will do well." It's critical for ASEAN to stick together and not be balkanized, which is what the US is trying to do with the Philippines "If we [ASEAN] don't stick together, we'll be balkanized and instead of becoming neighbours, become clients of big powers. Instead of using them, they make use of us. There's always a threat. Look at the Philippines now. The Philippines have legitimate disputes with China. Both sides have their cases. The Americans see an opportunity there. And jump in, and bring in the Japanese. And now Philippine politics is caught up in this [...] [China and the Philippines] had an agreement, a gentleman's agreement with Duterte, which Marcos has repudiated. So OK, so they must find a new way to equilibrium. And make use of the Americans and not be made use of by the Americans. But it's very difficult when you try to make use of a big power, you end up being made use of by them." Most countries in ASEAN do not want China to be an enemy For instance he says "Vietnam has made a very important decision to go with China": "it was not well reported, but Vietnam has agreed that Hanoi will be linked to Kunming and Nanning by high-speed rail. This is big because each connection is tens of billions of dollars. And will change the topological configuration of logistics and supply chain and human movement for decades to come." Same with Indonesia, noting that "Prabowo's first visit [was] to China" and that when he met Xi Jinping "it was Xiao Di talking to Da Ge. A little brother talking to big brother. But when we went to Japan, then it's brother talking to brother." He adds: "Look at the other countries, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei. No one wants China to be an enemy. And the Americans don't understand this, yet. That because China is getting bigger and bigger for us, all of us want the Americans to be in the room. But if the Americans say no, you have to choose between China and us, then they say no, we can't. How can we choose? I mean, China is where our bread is buttered, you know."

Arnaud Bertrand

1,025,435 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Elon Musk literally sat down for a 45-minute talk with Y Combinator that explains how to build world-changing companies better than any business school on earth. This is the advice he gave a room full of young founders: 1. Don't try to build something great. Try to build something useful. Everyone obsesses over greatness. Musk says that's the wrong target. "I didn't originally think I would build something great. I wanted to try to build something useful. I didn't think I would build anything particularly great. Seemed unlikely, but I wanted to at least try." Aim for useful first. Greatness, if it comes, is a byproduct. 2. When you can't get in the front door, build your own door. Before Musk started his first company, he tried to get a job at Netscape. "I sent my resume into Netscape and nobody responded. I tried hanging out in the lobby to see if I could bump into someone, but I was too shy to talk to anyone. So I'm like, this is ridiculous, I'll just write software myself." He didn't set out to be a founder. He became one because no one would hire him. 3. He slept in the office and showered at the YMCA. The origin of his first company was not glamorous. "We couldn't even afford a place to stay. The office was 500 bucks a month, so we just slept in the office and showered at the YMCA." He couldn't afford proper internet either, so he drilled a hole through the office floor and ran a cable to the internet provider downstairs. That was the founder of the future richest man on earth. 4. Keep the chips on the table. When Musk sold his first company, he received a $20 million cheque. His bank balance went from $10,000 to $20 million overnight. Most people would have stopped. He put almost all of it straight back into his next company. "I kept the chips on the table." He did the same thing decades later, over and over. He hates money sitting idle. Money is fuel for the next mission. 5. Start with the mission, then work backwards to make it a business. Musk didn't start SpaceX to make money. He went on the NASA website to find out when humans were going to Mars, and there was no plan. So he decided to build one. "There had been no prior example of a rocket startup succeeding. A small chance of success is better than no chance of success." The mission came first. The business model came later. 6. He started SpaceX expecting to fail. He is brutally honest about the odds. "SpaceX started in mid-2002 expecting to fail. Probably 90% chance of failing. When recruiting people, I said, we're probably going to die, but small chance we might not die." The first three launches failed. The fourth one worked with no money left. "If the fourth launch hadn't worked, it would have been curtains. We made it by the skin of our teeth." 7. Break every problem down to physics. This is the core of how Musk thinks. "First principles means break things down to the fundamental elements that are most likely to be true, then reason up from there, as opposed to reasoning by analogy." His example is rockets. Everyone priced them based on what old rockets cost. Musk asked what a rocket is actually made of, priced the raw metals, and found the materials were only 1-2% of the historical price. The rest was inefficiency he could attack. 8. When told something takes 24 months, break it down and do it in six. Last year xAI needed a giant computer to train its AI. Suppliers said it would take 18 to 24 months. "It's like, well, we need to get that done in six months or we won't be competitive." So he broke it into parts. Needed a building, so he found an old factory. Needed power, so he rented generators. Needed cooling, so he rented a quarter of America's mobile cooling capacity. He slept in the data centre and ran cabling himself. It got done. 9. Watch your ego-to-ability ratio. Musk's single sharpest piece of advice for young founders is about staying honest with yourself. "A major failure mode is when your ego-to-ability ratio gets too high. Then you break the feedback loop to reality." Keep the ego small, internalise responsibility for everything, and stay ruthlessly connected to what's actually true. "You want to close the loop on reality hard. That's a super big deal." 10. Chase work, not glory. His closing philosophy ties it all together. "It's so hard to be useful. The area under the curve of total utility is how useful you've been to your fellow human beings times how many people. If you aspire to do true work, your probability of success is much higher. Don't aspire to glory, aspire to work." He was ridiculed for years. The press called him "internet guy attempting to build a rocket company." He agreed it sounded absurd. He did it anyway, because a small chance of doing something useful beat no chance at all. Here's the thing though.... Musk became the most followed founder alive because everything he does happens in public. The launches, the failures, the talks like this one. The companies made him powerful. The personal brand made his every word travel around the world before he finishes saying it. We build massive distribution and grow personal brands on X and beyond without our clients lifting a finger. If you're a founder or VC looking for that kind of exposure, book a call below. We average 1.5M views a week.

Lewis 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

654,627 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

Context/Details: June 2021, Florida. Joe Schilling, a mixed martial artist and former Bellator fighter, was involved in a bar altercation that resulted in him knocking out a man. The incident shows Schilling trying to navigate around a man, identified as 31-year-old Justin Balboa, standing between a bar and a table. Balboa appears to confront Schilling, who responds by delivering two quick punches to Balboa’s face, causing him to fall to the floor. Balboa filed a lawsuit against him in Broward County, alleging battery and negligence. He sought damages up to $30,000. Schilling posted on Instagram, claiming the act was in self-defense: "Little context.... this guys rapping like an idiot. The buss boy who happens to be black walks by and this idiot bumps into him and screams out "Me and broke n#gas we don't get along" The bus boy was seriously offended but doesn't want to lose his job. As the night goes on this clown starts looking at me and rapping whatever song is being played while making eye contact with me. I'm like whats wrong with this idiot. I go outside to smoke and as I'm walking back in he bumps into me. I put my hand out to catch him he immediately says I'm sorry you can see me nod my head like cool. Then he realizes it's me the guy he's been rapping at all night and yells "HEY" I turn around and he flexes on me... bad decisions are made everyday 🤷🏻‍♂️ I went back and sat down to finish my drink and pay my bill two servers, the bus boy and DJ came up to thank me. As you can see from this video when he flexed on me I was scared for my life and simply defending myself against the evil in this world" "Self defense is apparently not what this country is about anymore. dont trip I got the video love you guys thanks for the concern and support during my life threatening experience. Big shout out to theyardmuaythai for preparing me for this life threatening situation." He also shared direct messages he received from a woman claiming to be Balboa’s ex-girlfriend, and another individual. They thanked Schilling for his actions, alleging that Balboa had a history of physical abuse towards women, and expressed gratitude for what they saw as justice being served. The court ruled that Schilling acted in self-defense and granted him immunity from the lawsuit. The judge found his actions necessary to neutralize the threat and awarded him attorney’s fees, court costs, and compensation for loss of income. Schilling texted a statement to MMA Fighting on the apparent resolution of the case: “I'm glad it's finally over. For the last two years my name and character has been disparaged in the media, seem like everyone loves the narrative that a professional fighter just beat up some innocent person, which was soooooo not the case. Most people told me to just settle it and pay him off as that would be easier. I don't like bully's and I refuse to be bullied by anyone. The ambulance chasing crumb bum of a lawyer he hired threatened to ruin me financially and well the only person he financially ruined was his client. I just hope that all of the news outlets that were so quick to post click bait articles assassinating my character have the same energy now that the truth is out. Justin Balboa is and will always be a tucking loser 🖕🏾” Schilling’s attorney, David Katz, emphasized that this ruling serves as a lesson to those attempting to exploit situations for financial gain. Joe Schilling is a seasoned fighter with an extensive career in both kickboxing and mixed martial arts. He has competed in various organizations, including Bellator MMA and Glory Kickboxing. Schilling’s professional kickboxing record stands at 23 wins (13 by knockout) and 9 losses. In mixed martial arts, he has a record of 4 wins (2 by knockout, 1 by submission, 1 by decision) and 6 losses. Schilling has held multiple titles, such as the Glory Middleweight World Championship Tournament Champion and the WBC Muay Thai United States Light Heavyweight Champion. I provide context and detailed explanations under posts. Please follow if you enjoy the insights and want to keep receiving them. Your support means everything to me!

BoreCure

164,889 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren