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Orlando Bravo discusses how private equity has changed over time "It used to be that for those old school deals, if you look at the returns, two thirds of the returns would come from cash flow and the yield, and a little bit from the terminal value. Today, it...

122,052 次观看 • 7 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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JUST IN: Chamath Palihapitiya makes a big claim that Warren Buffett’s insane pre 2000 returns may have benefited from access to information asymmetry not available to the public Here's what he had to say: "In 2000, we introduced the law called Reg FD. And what was the point of Reg FD? It was basically that if you're a CFO, you cannot talk to an individual stock manager and tell him something that you then don't tell everybody else. Essentially inside information. That used to be not illegal. I won't say that it was legal. I would just say that used to be not illegal. You call your CFO buddy, he says, "hey, how you doing?" He goes, man, "Quarter was a blockbuster." You would go and buy the stock. And starting in the 2000s, it became illegal. And there used to be these networks of information arbitrage that took advantage of this. Now, this is an example of Warren Buffett's returns, pre and post Reg FD. Now, what do you see? His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal. And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha. In fact, he probably on the margins lost a little bit. So this is the single best investor in the world. This is what happens when you have information symmetry. So it's just meant to explain that markets when there's asymmetry. Billions and billions of dollars will be made in asymmetry. The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, will look like the stock market pre-Reg FD."

Triple Net Investor

1,307,997 次观看 • 6 个月前

Chamath: “Private equity in general is totally hosed.” 🏢🚨 “I think the history of this is important.” “There was a long standing belief that the best way to generate the best risk adjusted return was to have what's called a 60/40 allocation. 60% to bonds and 40% to equities.” “Over many years, especially when we artificially suppressed rates at zero, a lot of people started to move their allocations away from 60/40 and they started to make more and more investments further out on the risk curve.” “The biggest beneficiaries of that were venture capital, private equity, and hedge funds.” “The thing with private equity is that because rates were zero, they had an infinite amount of borrowing capacity at very little downside to them, and so they were able to manufacture returns much faster than venture capital and hedge funds could.” “So as a result, you had an initial group of people that were defining the asset class, making a ton of money, and then you had all these fast followers that said, ‘Well, if they're doing it, I can do it too.’” “But then always what happens is then you have this flood of laggards that just flood the zone.” “And it's these laggards that make it very difficult to generate returns because they start overpaying for assets, they start mismanaging and under managing the assets that they do own.” “That created a lot of competition, and so that's why you see this hockey stick graph.” “And when you see that kind of graph, it doesn't matter what asset class it is. The returns go to zero.” “And so we've seen this in venture capital. We've seen this in hedge funds. And we're now going to see this in private equity.”

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"There's an incredible amount of leverage that's been taken out without cash flow able to service the debt" Nico Lechuga on why cash flow is what makes Bitcoin leverage survivable "Everybody has their own take on this, and we'll see what happens within the market. But if you're taking on any type of leverage, any type of debt, think about our own personal lives. If you buy a car, you buy a house and you're mortgaging that, you're taking out an interest loan, generally there's some degree of credit institution checking you to make sure that you have the cash flow to service the debt you've taken out" "When we're building businesses we think of risk vectors, and how those risk vectors potentially impact the business's chance of success. If you've introduced a risk vector, in this case leverage taken out against the business without having cash flow able to service it, then you can impair your business. This is designed by having uncorrelated businesses with good margins, sustainable cash flows. If you're taking out even a degree of leverage to buy Bitcoin, the only time you would ever do that is after you have the businesses and you have the cash flow" "Even if Bitcoin's price goes down, we see a drop from 126 to where we're at 65, 66 today, it doesn't matter, because you have the cash flow to service the debt. In the same way, when you buy a car and drive it off the lot, if you're paying with financing and the value drops 50% the day you drive it off the lot, you have a job and you can service that, so you're not impaired"

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