Over the past few weeks, there have been notable developments in the ongoing civil war with potentially far-reaching consequences. Two in particular stand out: 1. Fano’s Attack in North Wollo �Fano’s attack on government security forces in North Wollo led to the disintegration of an ENDF division (the 102nd)... in just two days of battle. This dramatic outcome was shocking not only because it highlighted Fano’s growing strength, but more importantly because it revealed the fragile state of the ENDF itself. How could a heavily armed division—deployed to face much stronger Tigrayan forces—collapse under attack from lightly armed, loosely coordinated Fano units? The regime’s cadres argue that the operation was planned and supported by Tigrayan and Eritrean forces. Even if we accept that claim, it does not explain OLA’s repeated success in capturing hundreds of ENDF soldiers in West and East Shewa, nor Fano’s similar gains in Gojjam. Alleged external support cannot sufficiently account for these rapid defeats and disintegrations. Instead, the evidence points to a deeper deterioration in the will and morale of the government’s fighting force. This is hardly a secret. For months, soldiers at the front have publicly lamented the war, questioned its purpose, complained about lack of supplies, and accused senior officials of living lavishly while troops are denied even basic necessities. Morale is collapsing, and many of the soldiers deployed are forcibly recruited and given only minimal, inadequate training. This better explains why ENDF soldiers often surrender en masse after brief clashes with rebels who are fewer in number and more lightly armed. 2. OLA’s new front in the East �The OLA has also achieved a breakthrough by opening a new front in Eastern Hararge in recent weeks. Previous attempts to establish a foothold there ended quickly, with operatives captured or killed. This time, however, they have secured strategic locations that once served as OLF strongholds in the 1980s. This move appears to reflect a strategic shift. Instead of confining operations to the more hospitable West and South, the OLA is repositioning forces and experienced commanders toward the Center and East, along key tributary roads leading to the capital. In the last six months, clashes between OLA and government forces have intensified across West, East, and North Shewa, East Arsi, West Hararge, and now East Hararge. Despite multiple government offensives, the OLA remains entrenched, roaming freely in rural areas beyond major towns and highways. If the OLA sustains and expands its operations in these regions, it could increasingly squeeze and choke the regime. Given the ENDF’s collapsing morale and the regime’s growing difficulty in recruiting new soldiers, the odds are on the OLA side. These latest developments in the armed conflict do not necessarily mean we are about to witness the end the contest between Abiy’s regime and rebel movements. However, they certainly herald a new phase that increasingly favors insurgents.show more

Jawar Mohammed

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