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💸 PANEL: Does Cash Flow Still Matter? What matters more for #Bitcoin treasury companies — cash flow or balance sheet growth? Hear insights from Andrew Webley (The Smarter Web Company), Danny Yeung (Prenetics), and Abel Seow (BitGo) in this panel moderated by Stephan Livera. 📍BFC Symposium | Presented by Kraken

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Bitcoin For Corporations

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The Smarter Web Company is currently the fastest growing Bitcoin Treasury Company in the world. The Smarter Web Company is also currently the best performing UK equity. Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Powered by Onramp. Today's guest is Andrew Webley, CEO of The Smarter Web Company. We discuss the company's institutional investors, the tickers, mNAV months to cover, the firm's Bitcoin buying process, and more. Here's my conversation with Andrew Webley. 0:00 - Intro 0:11 - Smarter Web Company’s Big Bitcoin Move 2:57 - Institutional Investors in Smarter Web Company 6:21 - What are the tickers Smarter Web Company is trading under? 7:50 - What is the mNAV months to cover metric? 11:32 - What has surprised Andrew about the community around Smarter Web Company? 15:03 - Smarter Web Company’s Bitcoin buying process 19:45 - What questions does Andrew get from investors? 22:37 - How Andrew thinks through the media side of the business 26:18 - How Andrew thinks about investor relations 30:03 - Where does Andrew see the most amount of inbound and activity coming from? 32:29 - What is the ratio of Smarter Web’s investor base in the US vs UK? 36:28 - Andrew’s takeaways from Metaplanet still being the only Bitcoin Treasury company in Japan 42:08 - Where does Andrew see the Smarter Web Company going both operationally and with its treasury going forward? 45:09 - Will Bitcoin Treasury companies be the main driver of Bitcoin from $100K upwards? 49:17 - Closing thoughts and where to find Andrew online
50:13

The Smarter Web Company is currently the fastest growing Bitcoin Treasury Company in the world. The Smarter Web Company is also currently the best performing UK equity. Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Powered by Onramp. Today's guest is Andrew Webley, CEO of The Smarter Web Company. We discuss the company's institutional investors, the tickers, mNAV months to cover, the firm's Bitcoin buying process, and more. Here's my conversation with Andrew Webley. 0:00 - Intro 0:11 - Smarter Web Company’s Big Bitcoin Move 2:57 - Institutional Investors in Smarter Web Company 6:21 - What are the tickers Smarter Web Company is trading under? 7:50 - What is the mNAV months to cover metric? 11:32 - What has surprised Andrew about the community around Smarter Web Company? 15:03 - Smarter Web Company’s Bitcoin buying process 19:45 - What questions does Andrew get from investors? 22:37 - How Andrew thinks through the media side of the business 26:18 - How Andrew thinks about investor relations 30:03 - Where does Andrew see the most amount of inbound and activity coming from? 32:29 - What is the ratio of Smarter Web’s investor base in the US vs UK? 36:28 - Andrew’s takeaways from Metaplanet still being the only Bitcoin Treasury company in Japan 42:08 - Where does Andrew see the Smarter Web Company going both operationally and with its treasury going forward? 45:09 - Will Bitcoin Treasury companies be the main driver of Bitcoin from $100K upwards? 49:17 - Closing thoughts and where to find Andrew online

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166,075 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Panel at Bitcoin Amsterdam last Friday with Jurjen Meijer, Henry Elder, and Amanda Fabiano was INTERESTING... Someone finally asked the question everyone's been avoiding: What happens to treasury companies when they can't raise money anymore? Right now the model is simple: buy Bitcoin with cheap capital and hold. That works when markets are open. When you can issue debt at 0%. When investors will fund anything with "Bitcoin treasury" in the deck. But we've all lived through crypto winters. Funding dries up. Debt markets freeze. Companies die. And these are interesting times once again... Here's what separates companies that survive from ones that disappear: • Real cash flow, not just balance sheet appreciation • Operating businesses that work in bear markets • Yield generation from the Bitcoin you already hold • Infrastructure that doesn't depend on constant fundraising This is where Europe's time horizon matters. American institutions think in quarters. European institutions think in centuries. Sweden launched the first Bitcoin ETP in 2015. Set VAT precedent for all of Europe. Built tax structures for long-term holding. We're not optimizing for next quarter's earnings call. The moderator asked about consolidation, too. Five years out, how many treasury companies actually survive? Maybe 2-3 globally. Another 1-2 per region. Everyone else gets absorbed or dies when the cycle turns. True treasury management will be cash flow and putting those Bitcoin holdings to work. That's what separates the Nordics from companies still pretending "buy and hold" is a strategy. Check out the full panel discussion here:
23:36

Panel at Bitcoin Amsterdam last Friday with Jurjen Meijer, Henry Elder, and Amanda Fabiano was INTERESTING... Someone finally asked the question everyone's been avoiding: What happens to treasury companies when they can't raise money anymore? Right now the model is simple: buy Bitcoin with cheap capital and hold. That works when markets are open. When you can issue debt at 0%. When investors will fund anything with "Bitcoin treasury" in the deck. But we've all lived through crypto winters. Funding dries up. Debt markets freeze. Companies die. And these are interesting times once again... Here's what separates companies that survive from ones that disappear: • Real cash flow, not just balance sheet appreciation • Operating businesses that work in bear markets • Yield generation from the Bitcoin you already hold • Infrastructure that doesn't depend on constant fundraising This is where Europe's time horizon matters. American institutions think in quarters. European institutions think in centuries. Sweden launched the first Bitcoin ETP in 2015. Set VAT precedent for all of Europe. Built tax structures for long-term holding. We're not optimizing for next quarter's earnings call. The moderator asked about consolidation, too. Five years out, how many treasury companies actually survive? Maybe 2-3 globally. Another 1-2 per region. Everyone else gets absorbed or dies when the cycle turns. True treasury management will be cash flow and putting those Bitcoin holdings to work. That's what separates the Nordics from companies still pretending "buy and hold" is a strategy. Check out the full panel discussion here:

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Building Europe's Biggest Bitcoin Treasuries with Sander Andersen, Andrew Webley and Jesse Myers Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Powered by Onramp. Today's guests are Mr.Andersen, Andrew Webley and Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴). We discuss Sander's H100 Group announcement, takeaways from The Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference, surprises of running a Bitcoin Treasury Company, the hardest parts of the journey, discussing volatility with employees, and much more. Here's my conversation with the executives of The Smarter Web Company and H100. 0:00 - Intro 0:21 - Sander’s H100 Group Announcement 1:05 - How Andrew & Sander connected over X 4:00 - Takeaways from the Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference 24:56 - The surprises of running a Bitcoin Treasury company 34:28 - Discussing DATs with Investors 44:55 - What did Andrew do right? 56:07 - What has been the hardest part of this journey? 1:04:16 - Discussing volatility with employees 1:07:41 - Where to find Andrew, Sander, and Jesse online
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Building Europe's Biggest Bitcoin Treasuries with Sander Andersen, Andrew Webley and Jesse Myers Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Powered by Onramp. Today's guests are Mr.Andersen, Andrew Webley and Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴). We discuss Sander's H100 Group announcement, takeaways from The Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference, surprises of running a Bitcoin Treasury Company, the hardest parts of the journey, discussing volatility with employees, and much more. Here's my conversation with the executives of The Smarter Web Company and H100. 0:00 - Intro 0:21 - Sander’s H100 Group Announcement 1:05 - How Andrew & Sander connected over X 4:00 - Takeaways from the Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference 24:56 - The surprises of running a Bitcoin Treasury company 34:28 - Discussing DATs with Investors 44:55 - What did Andrew do right? 56:07 - What has been the hardest part of this journey? 1:04:16 - Discussing volatility with employees 1:07:41 - Where to find Andrew, Sander, and Jesse online

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Friedberg: Michael Burry’s “Cooked Books” Claim is Totally Wrong david friedberg: “Burry's implication that they are cooking the books or hiding accounting is completely false because all of the accounting is apparent in the cashflow statement and in the balance sheet.” “Remember, companies have three financial statements, an income statement, a balance sheet, and a cashflow statement.” “The cashflow statement reconciles the difference between the income statement and the balance sheet, and it shows you all the cash that's going in and out of the company.” “And many analysts and many investors that are intelligent and do their homework, will look at the cash flow statement and they will see the CapEx, they will see all the investments going out, and they will calculate a number, typically called free cash flow, that will allow them to estimate the true cash generation of the business in a particular period and make an assessment of, should they be valued on free cash flow or should they be valued on the GAAP standard of EBITDA?” “And the investor has the choice on how they want to value the company.” “And Burry is incorrect in thinking that they're hiding anything because it's all there.” “They're following GAAP standards. And then investors make a market and they all decide, what do I want to value this company on? Cash flow? EBITDA?” “Let them choose, and then the market sets the price.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “I think we've given this guy way too much airtime. He's not very good at what he does.” Recorded in the brand new poker studio at The Venetian Las Vegas. Thanks The Venetian Resort Las Vegas!
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Friedberg: Michael Burry’s “Cooked Books” Claim is Totally Wrong david friedberg: “Burry's implication that they are cooking the books or hiding accounting is completely false because all of the accounting is apparent in the cashflow statement and in the balance sheet.” “Remember, companies have three financial statements, an income statement, a balance sheet, and a cashflow statement.” “The cashflow statement reconciles the difference between the income statement and the balance sheet, and it shows you all the cash that's going in and out of the company.” “And many analysts and many investors that are intelligent and do their homework, will look at the cash flow statement and they will see the CapEx, they will see all the investments going out, and they will calculate a number, typically called free cash flow, that will allow them to estimate the true cash generation of the business in a particular period and make an assessment of, should they be valued on free cash flow or should they be valued on the GAAP standard of EBITDA?” “And the investor has the choice on how they want to value the company.” “And Burry is incorrect in thinking that they're hiding anything because it's all there.” “They're following GAAP standards. And then investors make a market and they all decide, what do I want to value this company on? Cash flow? EBITDA?” “Let them choose, and then the market sets the price.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “I think we've given this guy way too much airtime. He's not very good at what he does.” Recorded in the brand new poker studio at The Venetian Las Vegas. Thanks The Venetian Resort Las Vegas!

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1:03:49

📺 The Bitcoin For Corporations Show Episode 21 now live — hosted by Pierre Rochard MSCI is considering a rule change that could remove #Bitcoin treasury companies from global equity indexes. In this episode, BFC Managing Director, George Mekhail, breaks down the mechanics, what’s at stake, and how companies & investors can respond. 00:00 – Why MSCI Raised Alarm 05:12 – MSCI, Indexes, and Why They Matter 10:03 – The 50% Bitcoin Threshold 15:06 – Operating Companies or Not? 20:12 – Preferred Equity and Capital Structure 25:34 – Wall Street Resistance 30:44 – A Risky Precedent 36:03 – Capital Allocation in Inflation 42:01 – The Future of Bitcoin Treasury Companies 47:15 – Advocacy and What Comes Next

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To be clear, I am the CEO of STRIKE. I will lead both companies. At Strike, we will continue building #Bitcoin financial services for the world, making Bitcoin more accessible for all. Today, we’re sharing some of our financials for the first time: 2024 Volume: $6B+ YOY Growth: 600% Gross Profit Margin: 85% Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): $0 Largest Customer Cohort: $50K-$500K/month Profitability Statement: We expect to generate 8-9 figures in net profit in 2025 with just ~75 full-time employees Strike is lean, profitable, and growing. Strike operates on a #Bitcoin standard. We hold almost all of our balance sheet in #bitcoin and sweep all of our cash flow into our #bitcoin treasury. We’re just getting started at STRIKE 🫡🚀
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To be clear, I am the CEO of STRIKE. I will lead both companies. At Strike, we will continue building #Bitcoin financial services for the world, making Bitcoin more accessible for all. Today, we’re sharing some of our financials for the first time: 2024 Volume: $6B+ YOY Growth: 600% Gross Profit Margin: 85% Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): $0 Largest Customer Cohort: $50K-$500K/month Profitability Statement: We expect to generate 8-9 figures in net profit in 2025 with just ~75 full-time employees Strike is lean, profitable, and growing. Strike operates on a #Bitcoin standard. We hold almost all of our balance sheet in #bitcoin and sweep all of our cash flow into our #bitcoin treasury. We’re just getting started at STRIKE 🫡🚀

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I’m excited to share that I’ve been appointed to Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific ($SMLR). Semler Scientific was the second U.S. public company to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, and now we’re just getting started. With a plan to own at least 10,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2025 and 105,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027 through accretive equity and debt financings and cash flow from operations, we are determined to build one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries in the world. Grateful to Eric Semler, Renae Cormier, Natalie Brunell ⚡️, and the team for the opportunity. I’m excited for this new beginning. Stay tuned. There’s a lot more to come.

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One of the Investing mantras which I have been following over the years: Top line is vanity Bottom line is sanity but Cash in bank is reality Cash flow is a crucial factor when it comes to avoiding big mistakes and identifying compounders. By focusing on cash flows, one can gain valuable insights into the financial health and sustainability of a business. However as investors, dilemma always has been whether Operating cash flows (OCF) more relevant than Free Cash flow (FCF) in India or vice versa? Most investors in India hunt for companies growing at 15%+. But for businesses to consistently grow at 15%+, companies need growing OCF pools to reinvest in growth (capacities, brands, etc.). In a way, quality of OCF, decides the quantum of growth. In India, across time-periods, pools of OCF compounders (CAGR>20%) have shown a 10% higher strike rate in unearthing multi-baggers (5Y=3x; 10Y=10x), versus pools of FCF compounders. OCF-funded earnings growth, combined with valuation re-ratings, have led to multibagger returns over years, even when FCF has been negligible. (Source:Nuvama) More so, the average returns of multibaggers emerging from the OCF pools are also meaningfully higher than multibaggers from the FCF pool. As a practitioner I can vouch that during times of downturn and earning recession, strong cash flows serves as a reliable indicator of a company's ability to sustain and expand its operations, paving the way for substantial value appreciation over the long term.
1:24

One of the Investing mantras which I have been following over the years: Top line is vanity Bottom line is sanity but Cash in bank is reality Cash flow is a crucial factor when it comes to avoiding big mistakes and identifying compounders. By focusing on cash flows, one can gain valuable insights into the financial health and sustainability of a business. However as investors, dilemma always has been whether Operating cash flows (OCF) more relevant than Free Cash flow (FCF) in India or vice versa? Most investors in India hunt for companies growing at 15%+. But for businesses to consistently grow at 15%+, companies need growing OCF pools to reinvest in growth (capacities, brands, etc.). In a way, quality of OCF, decides the quantum of growth. In India, across time-periods, pools of OCF compounders (CAGR>20%) have shown a 10% higher strike rate in unearthing multi-baggers (5Y=3x; 10Y=10x), versus pools of FCF compounders. OCF-funded earnings growth, combined with valuation re-ratings, have led to multibagger returns over years, even when FCF has been negligible. (Source:Nuvama) More so, the average returns of multibaggers emerging from the OCF pools are also meaningfully higher than multibaggers from the FCF pool. As a practitioner I can vouch that during times of downturn and earning recession, strong cash flows serves as a reliable indicator of a company's ability to sustain and expand its operations, paving the way for substantial value appreciation over the long term.

Pankaj Tibrewal

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"There's an incredible amount of leverage that's been taken out without cash flow able to service the debt" Nico Lechuga on why cash flow is what makes Bitcoin leverage survivable "Everybody has their own take on this, and we'll see what happens within the market. But if you're taking on any type of leverage, any type of debt, think about our own personal lives. If you buy a car, you buy a house and you're mortgaging that, you're taking out an interest loan, generally there's some degree of credit institution checking you to make sure that you have the cash flow to service the debt you've taken out" "When we're building businesses we think of risk vectors, and how those risk vectors potentially impact the business's chance of success. If you've introduced a risk vector, in this case leverage taken out against the business without having cash flow able to service it, then you can impair your business. This is designed by having uncorrelated businesses with good margins, sustainable cash flows. If you're taking out even a degree of leverage to buy Bitcoin, the only time you would ever do that is after you have the businesses and you have the cash flow" "Even if Bitcoin's price goes down, we see a drop from 126 to where we're at 65, 66 today, it doesn't matter, because you have the cash flow to service the debt. In the same way, when you buy a car and drive it off the lot, if you're paying with financing and the value drops 50% the day you drive it off the lot, you have a job and you can service that, so you're not impaired"
1:45

"There's an incredible amount of leverage that's been taken out without cash flow able to service the debt" Nico Lechuga on why cash flow is what makes Bitcoin leverage survivable "Everybody has their own take on this, and we'll see what happens within the market. But if you're taking on any type of leverage, any type of debt, think about our own personal lives. If you buy a car, you buy a house and you're mortgaging that, you're taking out an interest loan, generally there's some degree of credit institution checking you to make sure that you have the cash flow to service the debt you've taken out" "When we're building businesses we think of risk vectors, and how those risk vectors potentially impact the business's chance of success. If you've introduced a risk vector, in this case leverage taken out against the business without having cash flow able to service it, then you can impair your business. This is designed by having uncorrelated businesses with good margins, sustainable cash flows. If you're taking out even a degree of leverage to buy Bitcoin, the only time you would ever do that is after you have the businesses and you have the cash flow" "Even if Bitcoin's price goes down, we see a drop from 126 to where we're at 65, 66 today, it doesn't matter, because you have the cash flow to service the debt. In the same way, when you buy a car and drive it off the lot, if you're paying with financing and the value drops 50% the day you drive it off the lot, you have a job and you can service that, so you're not impaired"

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1:49:49

BITCOIN RAILS #55: WHAT HAPPENED TO BITCOIN TREASURY COMPANIES? | with David Bailey🇵🇷 $2.0mm/btc is the floor & Brandon 🔗 YOUTUBE: 🌿 SPOTIFY: This most recent bull market was inarguably defined by one dominant narrative: the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies and their dramatic retracement as crypto "DATs" flooded markets. David Bailey🇵🇷 $2.0mm/btc is the floor — former CEO of Bitcoin Inc. (Bitcoin Magazine bitcoin conference) — raised $760M for treasury company Nakamoto, which catapulted to a peak valuation of 33X MNAV before sliding down below MNAV after a seeming burst in treasury mania last year. David joins me and the newly appointed CEO of Bitcoin Inc. Brandon, to share the history of one of the most influential companies in Bitcoin history (Bitcoin Inc.), how their treasury play changed everything, and what we can expect from Bitcoin treasury companies moving through 2026 and beyond. In this episode, the three of us discuss: - The history of Bitcoin Inc., and the rise of Bitcoin Magazine and Bitcoin Conference empire. - The role of UTXO Management (VC and trading fund) in the team's strategy over time - How the fund’s entry into Metaplanet Inc. and their subsequent seeding of nearly a dozen Bitcoin Treasury companies since - The rise of Nakamoto and its subsequent 99% slide in price from ATHs - How David sees the Treasury thesis playing out from here… and projected winners and losers when/if these companies rebound. This episode of Bitcoin Rails is powered by: - Best In Slot (Best in Slot | BRC2.0 🧑‍🍳) — the leading API for Ordinals and BRC20 data aggregation and indexing. - Spark (Lightspark) — a statechains implementation advancing Bitcoin-powered payments. - Citrea (Citrea | Mainnet Live 🍊🍋) — a leading Bitcoin rollup technology and BitVM alliance contributor. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Intro 01:45 Hit Pieces and Psyop Jokes 05:53 David Bailey Origin Story 12:24 Buying Bitcoin Magazine 15:18 Early Spam “Wars” 19:55 BM Experimentation Phase 26:33 Defining What “Bitcoin Only” Means 32:39 What Being a Bitcoin Maxi Means 34:47 Bitcoin L2 Over Altchains 37:00 Why Securities Matter 41:23 Going Bitcoin Only 46:47 Bitcoin Conference Explosion 54:10 UTXO Bets And Treasury Wave 01:12:10 Seeding Treasury Startups 01:15:44 Taking Nakamoto Public 01:32:51 Treasury Thesis Future Products

Isabel Foxen Duke⚡️

35,495 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

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Bitcoin For Corporations

237,146 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:
0:23

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Adam Livingston

14,499 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Making Sense Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies If you've been following me on X you’ll know that I have recently been floating a lot of my updated thoughts on the Bitcoin Treasury space. Here I have synthesised all of my ideas and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can find the link in the comments. If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to do is acknowledge an important fact which is that Strategy, as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, is an anomaly. What do I mean by that? Strategy’s success has been defined by a number of unique factors and circumstances, most of which cannot be replicated again by other Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Specifically, there are 6 things that stand out to me. 1. Before adopting Bitcoin, Strategy was a billion dollar company with an operating business that was generating roughly $50M in cash a year. 2. Until the introduction of the ETF's in January 2024, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin. 3. Until this year, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. 4. Strategy was issuing multiple, billion dollar, zero coupon, unsecured convertible notes at +50% conversion premiums. 5. Strategy has Michael Saylor, who, you don’t need me to tell you, is in a league of his own. 6. For many reasons, including those I’ve just mentioned, Strategy has benefitted disproportionately from the broader sentiment around Bitcoin. In other words, for the best part of 4 years, Strategy had zero competition for either capital or attention. As a result, it became a magnet for capital from anyone who wanted exposure to Bitcoin and it attracted inflows that were beyond what fundamentals alone would maybe justify. Therefore, using Strategy as a blueprint for the performance that you can expect from other Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a bad idea. Using Strategy as a blueprint for how to operate a Bitcoin Treasury Company is a good idea. Now let’s break down what’s unfolded over the last 6 months or so. Between May and June of this year, when we witnessed a flood of new Bitcoin Treasury Companies, we entered what I refer to as the frenzy phase. The frenzy phase was driven almost entirely by sentiment. By sentiment I simply mean emotion. Since then, as sentiment has slowly faded, the market has increasingly priced Bitcoin Treasury Companies based more on fundamentals. By fundamentals I simply mean facts. So where as sentiment is driven by emotion and hype, fundamentals are driven by facts and reason. The problem is that when you price Bitcoin Treasury Companies on fundamentals, you realise that many of them are almost entirely dependent on sentiment in order to expand mNAV so they can raise capital via the common stock ATM to buy Bitcoin and generate Bitcoin Yield. However, for me, raising capital via the common stock ATM and recycling it into Bitcoin is not genuine value creation — it’s value transfer. That’s not to say you shouldn’t leverage the ATM as and when necessary — you should. However, if your business model as a Bitcoin Treasury Company no longer works when “sentiment is low” then you have neither a business model nor a business. You’re the equivalent of a meme stock except with Bitcoin on your balance sheet. On that basis, companies shouldn’t expect to trade at a premium if the common stock ATM is the only way they raise capital. I’m not saying they won’t trade at a premium — I’m saying that companies shouldn’t expect to. Now, between July and now, we’ve obviously seen mNAVs compress substantially and so the frenzy phase is over which means that the days of automatically being granted generous mNAV multiples is also over. So now we are in the maturity phase. The maturity phase is going to be defined by being able to offer a differentiated value proposition and having a sustainable business model that can generate Bitcoin Yield in any environment independent of sentiment. In other words, they can generate Bitcoin Yield when trading at or below 1 mNAV. So essentially now, Bitcoin Treasury Companies have to work for their mNAV multiples — as it should be. Following the maturity phase will be the consolidation phase where capital, Bitcoin and ultimately market share will converge towards a small number of Bitcoin Treasury Companies that will dominate the entire industry. I should clarify that I am referring predominantly to pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Companies — companies who are valued based solely on their Bitcoin strategy. Now, with everything that I’ve said, how should you evaluate Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Hopefully over the next few weeks I’m going to string together a video with my valuation framework. In the meantime, a basic test is that I use is this: How much Bitcoin Yield can the company generate over X period of time — you decide what that period of time is — if it traded at 1x mNAV over that entire period? If the answer is 0, then they are probably entirely dependent on raising capital via the common stock ATM which means they likely don’t deserve a premium. If the answer is >0, then they are probably innovating through the use of other instruments — like converts and preferred products — which means they likely do deserve a premium and so whatever number you come up with should be used as the base for your valuation. Now, don’t be fooled. The Bitcoin Treasury Company space is, not entirely, but to a large degree, a zero-sum game. Every Dollar raised by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. Every Bitcoin purchased by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. It’s only because we are early that everyone is incentivised to essentially hold hands and cheer each other on. However, make no mistake, everyone involved is tacitly well aware that they are all competing for the same finite amount of capital and the same fixed amount of Bitcoin. Thus, the reality is that, by definition, not every Bitcoin Treasury Company is going to succeed. So choose your horses and jockeys wisely. As a side note, with the amount of Bitcoin Treasury Companies now desperately chasing and competing for the same capital from institutions, who do you think has the leverage; the Bitcoin Treasury Companies or the institutions? I’ll let you decide. Before I close, I want to leave you guys with this. There is a small subset of people invested in Bitcoin Treasury Companies who are desperately clinging on to their bags because they believe “sentiment will return.” These people are completely missing the point. My friends, if your investing philosophy is based on sentiment, you are simply not going to last. You want to base your decisions, as far as possible, on fundamentals. As investors, you either adapt and update your mental models based on how things are and not how you want them to be — or you get left behind. With that in mind: Never get caught up in tribalism. Never get attached to your beliefs. Always think critically. Always think independently. Always seek Truth.
10:20

Making Sense Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies If you've been following me on X you’ll know that I have recently been floating a lot of my updated thoughts on the Bitcoin Treasury space. Here I have synthesised all of my ideas and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can find the link in the comments. If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to do is acknowledge an important fact which is that Strategy, as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, is an anomaly. What do I mean by that? Strategy’s success has been defined by a number of unique factors and circumstances, most of which cannot be replicated again by other Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Specifically, there are 6 things that stand out to me. 1. Before adopting Bitcoin, Strategy was a billion dollar company with an operating business that was generating roughly $50M in cash a year. 2. Until the introduction of the ETF's in January 2024, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin. 3. Until this year, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. 4. Strategy was issuing multiple, billion dollar, zero coupon, unsecured convertible notes at +50% conversion premiums. 5. Strategy has Michael Saylor, who, you don’t need me to tell you, is in a league of his own. 6. For many reasons, including those I’ve just mentioned, Strategy has benefitted disproportionately from the broader sentiment around Bitcoin. In other words, for the best part of 4 years, Strategy had zero competition for either capital or attention. As a result, it became a magnet for capital from anyone who wanted exposure to Bitcoin and it attracted inflows that were beyond what fundamentals alone would maybe justify. Therefore, using Strategy as a blueprint for the performance that you can expect from other Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a bad idea. Using Strategy as a blueprint for how to operate a Bitcoin Treasury Company is a good idea. Now let’s break down what’s unfolded over the last 6 months or so. Between May and June of this year, when we witnessed a flood of new Bitcoin Treasury Companies, we entered what I refer to as the frenzy phase. The frenzy phase was driven almost entirely by sentiment. By sentiment I simply mean emotion. Since then, as sentiment has slowly faded, the market has increasingly priced Bitcoin Treasury Companies based more on fundamentals. By fundamentals I simply mean facts. So where as sentiment is driven by emotion and hype, fundamentals are driven by facts and reason. The problem is that when you price Bitcoin Treasury Companies on fundamentals, you realise that many of them are almost entirely dependent on sentiment in order to expand mNAV so they can raise capital via the common stock ATM to buy Bitcoin and generate Bitcoin Yield. However, for me, raising capital via the common stock ATM and recycling it into Bitcoin is not genuine value creation — it’s value transfer. That’s not to say you shouldn’t leverage the ATM as and when necessary — you should. However, if your business model as a Bitcoin Treasury Company no longer works when “sentiment is low” then you have neither a business model nor a business. You’re the equivalent of a meme stock except with Bitcoin on your balance sheet. On that basis, companies shouldn’t expect to trade at a premium if the common stock ATM is the only way they raise capital. I’m not saying they won’t trade at a premium — I’m saying that companies shouldn’t expect to. Now, between July and now, we’ve obviously seen mNAVs compress substantially and so the frenzy phase is over which means that the days of automatically being granted generous mNAV multiples is also over. So now we are in the maturity phase. The maturity phase is going to be defined by being able to offer a differentiated value proposition and having a sustainable business model that can generate Bitcoin Yield in any environment independent of sentiment. In other words, they can generate Bitcoin Yield when trading at or below 1 mNAV. So essentially now, Bitcoin Treasury Companies have to work for their mNAV multiples — as it should be. Following the maturity phase will be the consolidation phase where capital, Bitcoin and ultimately market share will converge towards a small number of Bitcoin Treasury Companies that will dominate the entire industry. I should clarify that I am referring predominantly to pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Companies — companies who are valued based solely on their Bitcoin strategy. Now, with everything that I’ve said, how should you evaluate Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Hopefully over the next few weeks I’m going to string together a video with my valuation framework. In the meantime, a basic test is that I use is this: How much Bitcoin Yield can the company generate over X period of time — you decide what that period of time is — if it traded at 1x mNAV over that entire period? If the answer is 0, then they are probably entirely dependent on raising capital via the common stock ATM which means they likely don’t deserve a premium. If the answer is >0, then they are probably innovating through the use of other instruments — like converts and preferred products — which means they likely do deserve a premium and so whatever number you come up with should be used as the base for your valuation. Now, don’t be fooled. The Bitcoin Treasury Company space is, not entirely, but to a large degree, a zero-sum game. Every Dollar raised by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. Every Bitcoin purchased by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. It’s only because we are early that everyone is incentivised to essentially hold hands and cheer each other on. However, make no mistake, everyone involved is tacitly well aware that they are all competing for the same finite amount of capital and the same fixed amount of Bitcoin. Thus, the reality is that, by definition, not every Bitcoin Treasury Company is going to succeed. So choose your horses and jockeys wisely. As a side note, with the amount of Bitcoin Treasury Companies now desperately chasing and competing for the same capital from institutions, who do you think has the leverage; the Bitcoin Treasury Companies or the institutions? I’ll let you decide. Before I close, I want to leave you guys with this. There is a small subset of people invested in Bitcoin Treasury Companies who are desperately clinging on to their bags because they believe “sentiment will return.” These people are completely missing the point. My friends, if your investing philosophy is based on sentiment, you are simply not going to last. You want to base your decisions, as far as possible, on fundamentals. As investors, you either adapt and update your mental models based on how things are and not how you want them to be — or you get left behind. With that in mind: Never get caught up in tribalism. Never get attached to your beliefs. Always think critically. Always think independently. Always seek Truth.

Chris Millas

34,483 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

For those of you who are new here, I encourage you to watch this short video that shows you what Bitcoin was vs. what it has morphed into today. In the beginning, peer-to-peer digital cash for the world with no 3rd parties. Michael Saylor’s vision: Don’t compete with the dollar, Euro, MasterCard or Visa. Comply with KYC/AML and the IRS. We are facing technocratic tyranny. We need p2p digital cash separate from state now more than we did when Bitcoin was released to the world. This time, we need privacy-by-default.
3:18

For those of you who are new here, I encourage you to watch this short video that shows you what Bitcoin was vs. what it has morphed into today. In the beginning, peer-to-peer digital cash for the world with no 3rd parties. Michael Saylor’s vision: Don’t compete with the dollar, Euro, MasterCard or Visa. Comply with KYC/AML and the IRS. We are facing technocratic tyranny. We need p2p digital cash separate from state now more than we did when Bitcoin was released to the world. This time, we need privacy-by-default.

Aaron Day

45,084 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

GAMESTOP $GME CEO RYAN COHEN JUST WENT ON CNBC TO ANNOUNCE A $56 BILLION OFFER FOR EBAY $EBAY AND COULD NOT EXPLAIN HOW HE WOULD FUND IT The exchange with CNBC anchors Andrew Ross Sorkin and Melissa Lee: Sorkin: "The market cap of GameStop is, call it $11 billion. You have $9 billion on your balance sheet. You have this letter from TD, that's another $20 billion. We're now at $40 billion, but we're still off by call it $16 billion." Cohen: "Half cash, half stock." Sorkin: "I hear you, I'm just saying that math doesn't get you to the price that you're offering. Where is the rest of the money coming from?" Cohen: "I don't understand your question. We're offering half cash, half stock and we have the ability to issue stock in order to get the deal done." The structure of the offer: • Total deal value: $56 billion • 50% cash, 50% stock • Confirmed financing: ~$40 billion ($11B GameStop market cap + $9B GameStop balance sheet cash + $20B TD "highly confident" letter, which is not locked financing) • Funding gap: ~$16 billion, to be covered by issuing additional GameStop stock Cohen's vision for the combined entity: "There's an opportunity to build a much larger business, to make the business much more efficient, and to accelerate revenue growth. eBay is a very strong business, but it could be in a much stronger position. It could be a much larger business than what it currently is."
6:18

GAMESTOP $GME CEO RYAN COHEN JUST WENT ON CNBC TO ANNOUNCE A $56 BILLION OFFER FOR EBAY $EBAY AND COULD NOT EXPLAIN HOW HE WOULD FUND IT The exchange with CNBC anchors Andrew Ross Sorkin and Melissa Lee: Sorkin: "The market cap of GameStop is, call it $11 billion. You have $9 billion on your balance sheet. You have this letter from TD, that's another $20 billion. We're now at $40 billion, but we're still off by call it $16 billion." Cohen: "Half cash, half stock." Sorkin: "I hear you, I'm just saying that math doesn't get you to the price that you're offering. Where is the rest of the money coming from?" Cohen: "I don't understand your question. We're offering half cash, half stock and we have the ability to issue stock in order to get the deal done." The structure of the offer: • Total deal value: $56 billion • 50% cash, 50% stock • Confirmed financing: ~$40 billion ($11B GameStop market cap + $9B GameStop balance sheet cash + $20B TD "highly confident" letter, which is not locked financing) • Funding gap: ~$16 billion, to be covered by issuing additional GameStop stock Cohen's vision for the combined entity: "There's an opportunity to build a much larger business, to make the business much more efficient, and to accelerate revenue growth. eBay is a very strong business, but it could be in a much stronger position. It could be a much larger business than what it currently is."

WOLF

42,203 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The dollar DECLINED by ~11% in the last 12 months. That means if you held $100,000 in savings, it LOST $11,000 in purchasing power. It's a hidden tax on anyone holding cash. The only people who benefit are those holding stocks, real estate, and precious metals because asset values inflate while their debts stay the same. Ray Dalio explained this best: "If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it's going up." Asset prices aren't rising because the economy is booming—they're rising because the dollar is dying. How does the dollar weakening affect corporate companies? When the dollar weakens, companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia sell products globally in foreign currencies. They convert those euros and yen back into dollars and get 11% MORE for the same sales. Microsoft's Azure hit $50 billion quarterly—nearly half from overseas. When the dollar falls 11%, their foreign revenue is worth 11% more. Growth WTIHOUT doing anything. These companies are generating massive free cash flow NOW. And AI is entering the monetization phase. Here's the data that proves this:
1:42

The dollar DECLINED by ~11% in the last 12 months. That means if you held $100,000 in savings, it LOST $11,000 in purchasing power. It's a hidden tax on anyone holding cash. The only people who benefit are those holding stocks, real estate, and precious metals because asset values inflate while their debts stay the same. Ray Dalio explained this best: "If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it's going up." Asset prices aren't rising because the economy is booming—they're rising because the dollar is dying. How does the dollar weakening affect corporate companies? When the dollar weakens, companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia sell products globally in foreign currencies. They convert those euros and yen back into dollars and get 11% MORE for the same sales. Microsoft's Azure hit $50 billion quarterly—nearly half from overseas. When the dollar falls 11%, their foreign revenue is worth 11% more. Growth WTIHOUT doing anything. These companies are generating massive free cash flow NOW. And AI is entering the monetization phase. Here's the data that proves this:

Felix Prehn 🐶

37,245 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Years in banking taught me that successful stock picking comes down to 6 specific criteria. Whether markets are rising, falling, or stagnant, these criteria consistently identify quality companies Here's what they are: Criteria #1: Gross Margin >60% Companies with 60%+ gross margins aren't getting undercut by competitors. The product is defensible and hard to replicate. Service businesses typically achieve these numbers more easily than manufacturing due to lower overhead costs. Criteria #2: Return on Invested Capital Above 10% How effectively does the company turn money into more money? I want minimum 10-12% returns. Many companies barely hit 4%—you'd earn more in a high-yield savings account. Criteria #3: Free Cash Flow >20% Think of Amazon sellers constantly reinvesting in inventory—they never touch the cash. You want businesses that actually generate free cash flow of 20% or higher. This means they won't need to borrow money or dilute shareholders. They're fundamentally stronger. Criteria #4: Interest Coverage Ratio 3x+ Can they easily pay interest on debt from profits? I want this at least 3x so that even if rates spike, the business survives. This is your big warning signal for financial risk. Criteria #5: Forget P/E Ratios P/E ratios are useless snapshots. Netflix in 2015 had a P/E of 554x—everyone said "you're an idiot." Earnings then went up 100x. What matters is whether profits grow and fundamentals stack up, not the snapshot ratio. Criteria #6: The Moat How difficult is it for competitors to replicate the business? Apple's moat isn't just the phone—it's the stores, brand ecosystem, and App Store working together. Compare that to frozen yogurt shops competing themselves into bankruptcy. Look for deep, defensible competitive advantages. The Simpler Path Too complicated? Buy quality ETFs like SPQ (S&P 500 Quality Index) or IWQ (MSCI World Quality). You'll own the top 100 companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple instead of all 500 mediocre S&P companies. Stop donating money to Wall Street. Start building wealth with quality companies and real strategy.
9:37

Years in banking taught me that successful stock picking comes down to 6 specific criteria. Whether markets are rising, falling, or stagnant, these criteria consistently identify quality companies Here's what they are: Criteria #1: Gross Margin >60% Companies with 60%+ gross margins aren't getting undercut by competitors. The product is defensible and hard to replicate. Service businesses typically achieve these numbers more easily than manufacturing due to lower overhead costs. Criteria #2: Return on Invested Capital Above 10% How effectively does the company turn money into more money? I want minimum 10-12% returns. Many companies barely hit 4%—you'd earn more in a high-yield savings account. Criteria #3: Free Cash Flow >20% Think of Amazon sellers constantly reinvesting in inventory—they never touch the cash. You want businesses that actually generate free cash flow of 20% or higher. This means they won't need to borrow money or dilute shareholders. They're fundamentally stronger. Criteria #4: Interest Coverage Ratio 3x+ Can they easily pay interest on debt from profits? I want this at least 3x so that even if rates spike, the business survives. This is your big warning signal for financial risk. Criteria #5: Forget P/E Ratios P/E ratios are useless snapshots. Netflix in 2015 had a P/E of 554x—everyone said "you're an idiot." Earnings then went up 100x. What matters is whether profits grow and fundamentals stack up, not the snapshot ratio. Criteria #6: The Moat How difficult is it for competitors to replicate the business? Apple's moat isn't just the phone—it's the stores, brand ecosystem, and App Store working together. Compare that to frozen yogurt shops competing themselves into bankruptcy. Look for deep, defensible competitive advantages. The Simpler Path Too complicated? Buy quality ETFs like SPQ (S&P 500 Quality Index) or IWQ (MSCI World Quality). You'll own the top 100 companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple instead of all 500 mediocre S&P companies. Stop donating money to Wall Street. Start building wealth with quality companies and real strategy.

Felix Prehn 🐶

40,089 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

🔥MSTR VS. THE MAGNIFICENT 7🔥 Strategy will be the most valuable company in the world. Latest cash cushions (USD billions): Microsoft: $102.0 B Alphabet: $98.5 B Amazon: $94.2 B Nvidia: $60.6 B Apple: $54.7 B Meta: $44.4 B Tesla: $41.6 B Strategy BTC reserve: $62.5 B Strategy’s stack of Bitcoin now tops the cash war-chests of Apple, Meta and Tesla, and sits between Nvidia and Amazon. Mag 7 cash looks big until you do the one math they’re allergic to. Purchasing power math: Cash is a melting ice cube at 6% inflation. Strategy’s reserve is an asset compounding at 30% (even if you haircut it, the spread matters). Real return spread = ~24% per year. That means Strategy’s war chest a GROWTH ENGINE. 20-year compression: Mag 7 cash sitting still loses ~70% of its purchasing power. (1 / 1.06^20 ≈ 0.31) Strategy’s reserve in REAL terms GROWS BY 50x. ( (1.30 / 1.06)^20 ≈ 50 ) Microsoft can have $100B cash, fine. In two decades, that’s the buying power of $31B in today’s dollars. Strategy’s $62.5B turns into ~$3.1T in today’s dollars, assuming the spread holds. And that’s before the real unfair advantage kicks in: Cash can’t be rehypothecated into an empire without political, regulatory, and shareholder limits. A compounding reserve can be used as collateral, capital formation, refinancing, acquisition currency, and liquidity backstop, without shrinking the core reserve. Will the Mag 7 continue to add cash to fight the decay? Absolutely. But Strategy will, more importantly, continue to add Bitcoin to outrun the monetary death spiral. Mag 7 is “operating cash.” Strategy is “strategic collateral.” When your treasury compounds faster than your competitors’ revenues, you stop competing with companies, you start competing with sovereign balance sheets. The Mag 7 doesn’t stand a chance because they’re playing defense with melting dollars while Strategy is playing offense with compounding capital.
0:20

🔥MSTR VS. THE MAGNIFICENT 7🔥 Strategy will be the most valuable company in the world. Latest cash cushions (USD billions): Microsoft: $102.0 B Alphabet: $98.5 B Amazon: $94.2 B Nvidia: $60.6 B Apple: $54.7 B Meta: $44.4 B Tesla: $41.6 B Strategy BTC reserve: $62.5 B Strategy’s stack of Bitcoin now tops the cash war-chests of Apple, Meta and Tesla, and sits between Nvidia and Amazon. Mag 7 cash looks big until you do the one math they’re allergic to. Purchasing power math: Cash is a melting ice cube at 6% inflation. Strategy’s reserve is an asset compounding at 30% (even if you haircut it, the spread matters). Real return spread = ~24% per year. That means Strategy’s war chest a GROWTH ENGINE. 20-year compression: Mag 7 cash sitting still loses ~70% of its purchasing power. (1 / 1.06^20 ≈ 0.31) Strategy’s reserve in REAL terms GROWS BY 50x. ( (1.30 / 1.06)^20 ≈ 50 ) Microsoft can have $100B cash, fine. In two decades, that’s the buying power of $31B in today’s dollars. Strategy’s $62.5B turns into ~$3.1T in today’s dollars, assuming the spread holds. And that’s before the real unfair advantage kicks in: Cash can’t be rehypothecated into an empire without political, regulatory, and shareholder limits. A compounding reserve can be used as collateral, capital formation, refinancing, acquisition currency, and liquidity backstop, without shrinking the core reserve. Will the Mag 7 continue to add cash to fight the decay? Absolutely. But Strategy will, more importantly, continue to add Bitcoin to outrun the monetary death spiral. Mag 7 is “operating cash.” Strategy is “strategic collateral.” When your treasury compounds faster than your competitors’ revenues, you stop competing with companies, you start competing with sovereign balance sheets. The Mag 7 doesn’t stand a chance because they’re playing defense with melting dollars while Strategy is playing offense with compounding capital.

Adam Livingston

46,883 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten