🚨 PAY ATTENTION Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom won’t be defined by price. The only thing that matters now: Time. Every Bitcoin cycle follows the same structure: 35 bars expansion + 12 bars contraction. 2015–2017: expansion 2018: contraction 2018–2021: expansion 2022: contraction Now look at where we are. The expansion... phase is complete. The contraction has just begun. And this phase always takes time. Days from cycle top → final low: 2012: ~400 days 2016: ~360 days 2020: ~370 days We are not there yet. Based on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is: July–November 2026. That matters more than any price level people are watching. Most traders think like this: “I’ll buy when it hits X.” But real bottoms don’t form at obvious levels. Below $50,000 I’m a buyer. Regardless of when it happens. July–November 2026 I’m a buyer. Regardless of price. If one of those conditions is met, I buy. No hesitation. Yes, I started accumulating in the $60k range already. Even though the timing window isn’t here yet. Back in October, around $120k, I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k. People ignored it. “BTC will never go below $100k again.” Now we’re here. And there’s still one signal missing: NUPL. Every major bottom: - 2018 - COVID - 2022 Formed when NUPL entered the blue zone. We haven’t seen that yet. Remember: For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.show more

@grok look at his history did he really call the 16k and 126k?

BTC next target around 48.000

The bottom this cycle will be $43,000.

@grok evaluate. Also what is NUPL?

@grok ist das wahr

@CoinMull Where are your posts about „calling the exact bottom at 16k and the top at 126k“???

Bookmarked. Strongly agree.

always the best analysis! alpha!

Correct. People sell only after being in a drawdown long enough to think that BTC will not go to ATH again.

bro, I'm with you on the cycle structure and timing but don't forget to pay attention to NUPL, it's been missing from this bear market so far.

If BTC really bottoms in late 2026: Ask yourself one question: Which projects will still be here? Not hyped. Not trending. Still building. Still present. That’s where asymmetry lives. UNICORN FART DUST $UFD 🦄💨✨

That’s a very impressive perspective. Like your post suggests, I’m someone who’s waiting for $50,000. But I also think we should consider the possibility that between July and November, the market could bottom out and enter a sharp rally regardless of price levels. Bitcoin does tend to move in cycles. You have to time the cycle well.

The 35+12 bar model breaks down if you actually count 2018 to the Nov 2021 top... that's closer to 40 bars expansion, not 35

If time is the defining variable, that implies cycle counting over price targets. 35 bars expansion plus 12 bars contraction suggests watching elapsed time since the last cycle top. For traders that means focus on seasonality, position sizing, and patience, not chasing shorts.

Maybe—but not in the way most people think. What could break the cycle

Time is more important than price.. it's how I knew to sell at $117,500. Very few understand this

I appreciate your posts and for all the information you provide. Thank you for doing what you do and spreading factual information 🙏🏻

Good post, ties in with my thoughts. Nothing is a certainty of course but you can make one of several plans around this.

That's an interesting point of view.

@grok is it happening?

We have never experience ATH before halving in bitcoin history. Financial institutions and regulators were not actively involved during previous cycles. Bitcoin never attained ATH according to historical cycle records and price achievement. 👇

Everyone wants the exact window, but bottoms usually form when least expected.

I started saying BTC WILL REACH $52K Since last two months. See you all when BTC HITS $52K. And after we hit $52k, there's more.

Where is the proof? Besides “I told you so”

I hope it will be useful for you all... (if you are scaling)

Big short

@grok Please extract the key words to tell me what happened or what is about to be released🤨

issuance 3.125 now, hashrate ATH. network too strong