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Peter Thiel says the quiet part loud: AI chips will get commoditized. This is why I avoid $NVDA. It made an immense amount of money marking up its GPUs by 10x and others had to pay as alternatives weren’t good enough. Now they are getting good enough. $AMD has...

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Oguz Erkan

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451,686 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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No wonder Jensen got so defensive over $NVDA GPUs against custom chips. $GOOG will start using different custom chips for inference and training. $AMZN has already adopted this approach as they have Trainium for training and Inferentia for inference. Hyperscalers obviously see better price/performance in this approach, and this is where the industry is headed. $AVGO and $MRVL are poised to be big winners, while $NVDA dominance will be under increasing pressure.
3:25

No wonder Jensen got so defensive over $NVDA GPUs against custom chips. $GOOG will start using different custom chips for inference and training. $AMZN has already adopted this approach as they have Trainium for training and Inferentia for inference. Hyperscalers obviously see better price/performance in this approach, and this is where the industry is headed. $AVGO and $MRVL are poised to be big winners, while $NVDA dominance will be under increasing pressure.

Oguz Erkan

223,244 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Lisa Su explains why, for at least the next few years, $AMD and $NVDA GPUs will continue to dominate the AI accelerator market. “ASICs like $GOOGL TPUs are great, but they don’t offer anywhere near the same programmability or model flexibility that GPUs provide. AI is at least a 10-year cycle, and we’re only in year two. Being so early, software developers want the flexibility to innovate on different algorithms.” Even as ASICs become competitive for inference, GPUs are on another level. $AMD and $NVDA are set to keep thriving in the years ahead.
1:04

Lisa Su explains why, for at least the next few years, $AMD and $NVDA GPUs will continue to dominate the AI accelerator market. “ASICs like $GOOGL TPUs are great, but they don’t offer anywhere near the same programmability or model flexibility that GPUs provide. AI is at least a 10-year cycle, and we’re only in year two. Being so early, software developers want the flexibility to innovate on different algorithms.” Even as ASICs become competitive for inference, GPUs are on another level. $AMD and $NVDA are set to keep thriving in the years ahead.

Daniel

125,735 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Groq founder Jonathan Ross explains why their architecture is better for inference than GPUs. Inference doesn't require as much compute power as training. What matters in inference is speed, cost, and energy consumption. $NVDA was going to lose market share as AI workloads shift to inference. They saw this and made a highly strategic move by striking a deal with Groq. $NVDA is already dominating training, and now it's also well-positioned to dominate inference.
1:45

Groq founder Jonathan Ross explains why their architecture is better for inference than GPUs. Inference doesn't require as much compute power as training. What matters in inference is speed, cost, and energy consumption. $NVDA was going to lose market share as AI workloads shift to inference. They saw this and made a highly strategic move by striking a deal with Groq. $NVDA is already dominating training, and now it's also well-positioned to dominate inference.

Oguz Erkan

97,186 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

$AMZN CEO: “If you want to allow customers to use AI as expansively as they want, you need to bring down the cost of inference.” Hyperscalers are preparing for the age of inference. $AMZN has Trainium, $GOOG has TPU and $MSFT recently announced Maia 200. Once the bulk of AI workloads shifts from training to inference, they’ll depend less on $NVDA and margins will expand thanks to vertical integration. $AMZN is leading the race here as their chip business has already reached $10 billion annual run rate. Imagine being bearish on $AMZN.
1:27

$AMZN CEO: “If you want to allow customers to use AI as expansively as they want, you need to bring down the cost of inference.” Hyperscalers are preparing for the age of inference. $AMZN has Trainium, $GOOG has TPU and $MSFT recently announced Maia 200. Once the bulk of AI workloads shifts from training to inference, they’ll depend less on $NVDA and margins will expand thanks to vertical integration. $AMZN is leading the race here as their chip business has already reached $10 billion annual run rate. Imagine being bearish on $AMZN.

Oguz Erkan

130,592 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

$AMD will be a multi-trillion $ company. The AI accelerator TAM will exceed $1T by 2030, and the market will only keep growing. As Lisa Su says: “We’re in a market where you can think of computing as equating to intelligence. If you can get more intelligence, why wouldn’t you want more computing?” While big tech like $GOOGL with TPUs and $AMZN with Trainium are building their own ASICs, GPUs—especially $NVDA and $AMD —are expected to dominate, representing 70–75% of the AI accelerator market by the end of 2030.
0:48

$AMD will be a multi-trillion $ company. The AI accelerator TAM will exceed $1T by 2030, and the market will only keep growing. As Lisa Su says: “We’re in a market where you can think of computing as equating to intelligence. If you can get more intelligence, why wouldn’t you want more computing?” While big tech like $GOOGL with TPUs and $AMZN with Trainium are building their own ASICs, GPUs—especially $NVDA and $AMD —are expected to dominate, representing 70–75% of the AI accelerator market by the end of 2030.

Daniel

45,866 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

$NVDA CEO: “Demand for inference will go up by a billion times.” $AMD will be one of the biggest winners as it has the upper hand in inference thanks to larger memory bandwith and capacity of its chips. Stock is still at 22x 2027 earnings. How can’t you be bullish on $AMD?
0:20

$NVDA CEO: “Demand for inference will go up by a billion times.” $AMD will be one of the biggest winners as it has the upper hand in inference thanks to larger memory bandwith and capacity of its chips. Stock is still at 22x 2027 earnings. How can’t you be bullish on $AMD?

Oguz Erkan

282,229 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Lisa Su explains why GPUs from $AMD & $NVDA will continue to dominate AI accelerators for years since developers need programmability & flexibility that ASICs like $GOOGL TPUs can’t match. Even as ASICs improve for inference, GPUs remain the default platform.
1:04

Lisa Su explains why GPUs from $AMD & $NVDA will continue to dominate AI accelerators for years since developers need programmability & flexibility that ASICs like $GOOGL TPUs can’t match. Even as ASICs improve for inference, GPUs remain the default platform.

Shay Boloor

78,755 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

$META is betting on $AMD for AI inference. As AI models become more commoditized, total cost of ownership for token generation matters more than ever. $AMD GPUs are far more cost-efficient than $NVDA for inference. With 3.5B daily users ready to use its AI models, $META is going all-in on $AMD
3:17

$META is betting on $AMD for AI inference. As AI models become more commoditized, total cost of ownership for token generation matters more than ever. $AMD GPUs are far more cost-efficient than $NVDA for inference. With 3.5B daily users ready to use its AI models, $META is going all-in on $AMD

Daniel

20,558 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

$NVDA CEO: “Inference demand will go up by a billion times.” We are just in the very early innings. Compute demand will likely grow by another 10x over the next decade and current TAM projections for GPU/CPU will look too conservative in hindsight. $AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM
0:20

$NVDA CEO: “Inference demand will go up by a billion times.” We are just in the very early innings. Compute demand will likely grow by another 10x over the next decade and current TAM projections for GPU/CPU will look too conservative in hindsight. $AMD $NVDA $INTC $ARM

Oguz Erkan

198,500 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

For anyone saying $NVDA — trading at a forward P/E of 26, with 2026 revenue growth projected at 70% — is overvalued. And that $GOOGL TPUs, $AZMN Trainium chips, or $MSFT Maia chips can compete and are coming for them… Just listen to Larry Ellison. He and Elon are literally begging Jensen for more $NVDA GPUs.
0:56

For anyone saying $NVDA — trading at a forward P/E of 26, with 2026 revenue growth projected at 70% — is overvalued. And that $GOOGL TPUs, $AZMN Trainium chips, or $MSFT Maia chips can compete and are coming for them… Just listen to Larry Ellison. He and Elon are literally begging Jensen for more $NVDA GPUs.

Daniel

111,821 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

$NBIS and $CRWV growing like crazy shouldn't be surprising. Satya Nadella publicly explained 6 months ago on a podcast that $MSFT would be leasing a lot of capacity going forward rather than building all itself. Here is what I think is happening: These neo-cloud businesses, both $NBIS and $CRWV, exist solely because $NVDA wants them to exist. Nvidia has an equity stake in both companies, and they are both members of the Nvidia Partners Program. Nvidia grants early access to its chips to the partners. Nvidia does that because it knows all hyperscalers, especially $MSFT and $AMZN, are racing to develop their own cutting-edge GPUs, as this is their biggest cost in scaling cloud operations. Nvidia knows that if they are allowed to control the supply, it will prolong the upgrade cycles and reduce orders to gain time to develop its own chips. This is why it's providing early access to the neo-clouds that are 100% dependent on Nvidia chips. Hyperscalers know that if they delay orders for the fresh capacity, the demand will shift to the neo-clouds that can build capacity fast with the support of $NVDA. Thus, $NVDA corners hyperscalers and strategically compels them to put new orders and cripples their ability to focus on their own chips. $MSFT sees this and says, "If this is the case, I'll just lease the capacity from the neo-clouds." It's basically a strategic response to $NVDA. It leases the bulk of their capacity, making them dependent on it. So, if $MSFT backs down, they'll have a really hard time staying alive. There is a small window of opportunity here for neo-clouds. If they can scale beyond hyperscalers and form a fragmented customer base, they may keep thriving even if hyperscalers reduce leases. Currently, $NBIS has a better shot at it than $CRWV, as $MSFT already makes up 72% of its revenue. I am long $NBIS, and I have already made 4x of money in the stock. I'll remain long $NBIS and even grow my position, but I'll remain skeptical of $CRWV for its unfavorable strategic position, as I explained above.
1:30

$NBIS and $CRWV growing like crazy shouldn't be surprising. Satya Nadella publicly explained 6 months ago on a podcast that $MSFT would be leasing a lot of capacity going forward rather than building all itself. Here is what I think is happening: These neo-cloud businesses, both $NBIS and $CRWV, exist solely because $NVDA wants them to exist. Nvidia has an equity stake in both companies, and they are both members of the Nvidia Partners Program. Nvidia grants early access to its chips to the partners. Nvidia does that because it knows all hyperscalers, especially $MSFT and $AMZN, are racing to develop their own cutting-edge GPUs, as this is their biggest cost in scaling cloud operations. Nvidia knows that if they are allowed to control the supply, it will prolong the upgrade cycles and reduce orders to gain time to develop its own chips. This is why it's providing early access to the neo-clouds that are 100% dependent on Nvidia chips. Hyperscalers know that if they delay orders for the fresh capacity, the demand will shift to the neo-clouds that can build capacity fast with the support of $NVDA. Thus, $NVDA corners hyperscalers and strategically compels them to put new orders and cripples their ability to focus on their own chips. $MSFT sees this and says, "If this is the case, I'll just lease the capacity from the neo-clouds." It's basically a strategic response to $NVDA. It leases the bulk of their capacity, making them dependent on it. So, if $MSFT backs down, they'll have a really hard time staying alive. There is a small window of opportunity here for neo-clouds. If they can scale beyond hyperscalers and form a fragmented customer base, they may keep thriving even if hyperscalers reduce leases. Currently, $NBIS has a better shot at it than $CRWV, as $MSFT already makes up 72% of its revenue. I am long $NBIS, and I have already made 4x of money in the stock. I'll remain long $NBIS and even grow my position, but I'll remain skeptical of $CRWV for its unfavorable strategic position, as I explained above.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

176,521 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

From training to inference at massive scale, delivering on the promise of AI depends on collaboration across open hardware and software. AMD and OpenAI are working together to tailor hardware like Instinct MI455X and Helios for where AI workloads are going, not just where they are today. Greg Brockman (Greg Brockman) on the power of our engineering partnership at #CES2026.
1:07

From training to inference at massive scale, delivering on the promise of AI depends on collaboration across open hardware and software. AMD and OpenAI are working together to tailor hardware like Instinct MI455X and Helios for where AI workloads are going, not just where they are today. Greg Brockman (Greg Brockman) on the power of our engineering partnership at #CES2026.

AMD

19,984 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

$AMZN having a market cap $1.5T lower than $GOOGL makes no sense. $AMZN is the only big tech company that fully designs its own in-house ASIC chips, without relying on Broadcom $AVGO like $GOOGL does for its TPUs. On top of that, its Trainium chips are 40% more price-performance efficient than leading $NVDA GPUs. And let’s not forget — $AMZN owns more than 15% of Anthropic. $AMZN is such an obvious play.
1:03

$AMZN having a market cap $1.5T lower than $GOOGL makes no sense. $AMZN is the only big tech company that fully designs its own in-house ASIC chips, without relying on Broadcom $AVGO like $GOOGL does for its TPUs. On top of that, its Trainium chips are 40% more price-performance efficient than leading $NVDA GPUs. And let’s not forget — $AMZN owns more than 15% of Anthropic. $AMZN is such an obvious play.

Daniel

249,429 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.
1:55

Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.

Wall St Engine

824,845 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Dojo 2, Dojo 3 Chips and AI5 Chips Are Critical for Tesla and Battle for Future of AI. Tesla and XAI are buying about one million AI GPUs this year. This would be about 20% of the entire Nvidia production of B200/B300 chips that will be made in 2025. If XAI were to buy a mix of half Dojo 2/3 chips in 2025 and 2026 this could make them bigger than AMD. AMD is making about 400,000 AI GPU chips. Tesla will switch to AI5 chips for driving its cars but those chips will also act as inference chips with about 500 Teraflops of compute. Tesla could make 3-4 million AI5 chips in 2026. This would make Tesla the largest maker and user of AI inference chips in the world. Tesla could become the number 2 maker of AI training chips just by supplying a lot of those chips to XAI and Tesla internal use. Tesla is and will be the number one maker and user of AI inference chips. Sawyer Merritt Elon Musk Randy Kirk Herbert Ong Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Ale𝕏andra Merz 🇺🇲 Ray Emmet Peppers Bradford Ferguson
56:36

Dojo 2, Dojo 3 Chips and AI5 Chips Are Critical for Tesla and Battle for Future of AI. Tesla and XAI are buying about one million AI GPUs this year. This would be about 20% of the entire Nvidia production of B200/B300 chips that will be made in 2025. If XAI were to buy a mix of half Dojo 2/3 chips in 2025 and 2026 this could make them bigger than AMD. AMD is making about 400,000 AI GPU chips. Tesla will switch to AI5 chips for driving its cars but those chips will also act as inference chips with about 500 Teraflops of compute. Tesla could make 3-4 million AI5 chips in 2026. This would make Tesla the largest maker and user of AI inference chips in the world. Tesla could become the number 2 maker of AI training chips just by supplying a lot of those chips to XAI and Tesla internal use. Tesla is and will be the number one maker and user of AI inference chips. Sawyer Merritt Elon Musk Randy Kirk Herbert Ong Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Ale𝕏andra Merz 🇺🇲 Ray Emmet Peppers Bradford Ferguson

nextbigfuture

23,809 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Jensen Huang: “Demand is so strong that rental prices of 2 generation old GPUs are going up.” Jensen said this in January and Blackwell rental prices are up by 50% since then. The demand is so excessive now that Anthropic had to reduce default thinking effort of Claude to be able to serve everybody. There is simply not enough compute. $AMD $NVDA $NBIS $AMZN $ORCL
2:21

Jensen Huang: “Demand is so strong that rental prices of 2 generation old GPUs are going up.” Jensen said this in January and Blackwell rental prices are up by 50% since then. The demand is so excessive now that Anthropic had to reduce default thinking effort of Claude to be able to serve everybody. There is simply not enough compute. $AMD $NVDA $NBIS $AMZN $ORCL

Oguz Erkan

73,553 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Why is $NVDA letting NemoClaw run on any chip? Because Jensen is no longer trying to win only at the silicon layer against $AMD, $GOOGL TPUs or $AMZN Trainium but trying to own the orchestration layer above the hardware. NemoClaw decides how AI agents are deployed, what tasks they take on & how work flows across an enterprise. If those agents run through its system then it still owns the workflow even when it doesn’t own the chip. That is how Nvidia turns agentic AI orchestration into Workforce-as-a-Service.
0:37

Why is $NVDA letting NemoClaw run on any chip? Because Jensen is no longer trying to win only at the silicon layer against $AMD, $GOOGL TPUs or $AMZN Trainium but trying to own the orchestration layer above the hardware. NemoClaw decides how AI agents are deployed, what tasks they take on & how work flows across an enterprise. If those agents run through its system then it still owns the workflow even when it doesn’t own the chip. That is how Nvidia turns agentic AI orchestration into Workforce-as-a-Service.

Shay Boloor

77,857 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce