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Peter Thiel says the quiet part loud: AI chips will get commoditized. This is why I avoid $NVDA. It made an immense amount of money marking up its GPUs by 10x and others had to pay as alternatives weren’t good enough. Now they are getting good enough. $AMD has...

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Oguz Erkan

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461,874 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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35 Kommentare

Profilbild von the tiny corp
the tiny corpvor 9 Monaten

The petaflop will be commoditized you say?

Profilbild von Dals
Dalsvor 9 Monaten

Nvidia edge is cuda, not the chips.

Profilbild von uhonyn
uhonynvor 9 Monaten

I am not saying it won't happen. But AMD has been competing with NVDA for GPU market share for nearly 20years ... what makes you optimistic they (or others) will succeed this time?

Profilbild von OneOpenSea
OneOpenSeavor 9 Monaten

He didn't say Nvidia/AI chips will get commoditized. His position was much more uncertain than that.

Profilbild von Tyson
Tysonvor 9 Monaten

Been hearing the same bearish shit about $NVDA for years. Yes everyone with half a brain knows the margins will go down but just like Elon, Jensen is always ahead of the game! The company still will most likely be the first to hit $10 trillion cap and possibly 20

Profilbild von Dag J
Dag Jvor 9 Monaten

Peter Thiel doesn’t understand AI chips, yet confidently declares they’ll be commoditized, say..like Intel CPUs 🙂 AI compute isn’t a beige box CPU market. It’s software, networking, compilers, and brutal switching costs.

Profilbild von Artificer
Artificervor 9 Monaten

OK...and how are the other chip companies going to take out the CUDA moat. AMD have been trying for a long time.

Profilbild von cgc4200
cgc4200vor 9 Monaten

You don’t think $NVDA is innovating as well? $AMD caught up…..Please. JH is not resting & $NVDA will continue to lead. People have said this since it $15/ share.

Profilbild von Mark Petersen
Mark Petersenvor 9 Monaten

Have you watched the video? He does not say that that AI chips will get commoditized. That is a straw man fallacy. Try listen to it again 😇 He says, with modesty and humbleness, that they will get commoditized if ALL big tech players develop and produce their own chips.

Profilbild von Deva.me
Deva.mevor 9 Monaten

That’s the classic infrastructure arc. Once supply diversifies and workloads specialize, margins move up the stack to software, integration, and distribution rather than raw compute.

Profilbild von Rick Wong
Rick Wongvor 9 Monaten

You have to get pass the developer eco-system, then the infrastructure/cloud eco-system, then the datacenter/rack eco-system, then the semi eco-system. Two vectors of attack: 1) Hit the entire stack, not to hurt nvidia, but more to optimize for what they are building (Goog, Tesla) 2) Win a layer (many players here, but they will still be using the nvdia eco-system upstream and downstream. Open standards will speed this up) Both are happening, but if you look at how companies allocate resources for their AI spend, do you see a change in trend in the next 3-5 years?

Profilbild von Mikhail Drozdov
Mikhail Drozdovvor 9 Monaten

NVIDIA’s margin pressure is real as specialized chips gain efficiency and alternatives close performance gaps.

Profilbild von Sanchi Khurana
Sanchi Khuranavor 9 Monaten

His Founders Fund portfolio company Cerebras is expected to IPO in 2026 - one of the few names investors see as a real Nvidia challenger.

Profilbild von fingogh
fingoghvor 9 Monaten

Someone was late to $nvda is the most likely explanation

Profilbild von Sumeet Shisodia
Sumeet Shisodiavor 9 Monaten

This is a rear view mirror analysis. Chips for AI are much like early versions of smartphones. The first decade will have different players taking different takes on the same (like iphone, android, nokia, blackberry) and we might see convergence towards certain type of chips as we grow. The winner/s at the end of this will be the company that keeps innovating and pivoting as and when needed.

Profilbild von Smartfin
Smartfinvor 9 Monaten

I get the commoditization take, but $NVDA still sells shovels.

Profilbild von Maksim
Maksimvor 9 Monaten

You obviously aren’t actually in this space but an observer from the sidelines…go speak to any ITDM who runs AI workloads for starters…they’re all clamoring for Nvidia GPUs You are living too much in news cycles and press releases The demand is literally insatiable right now

Profilbild von Tim R
Tim Rvor 9 Monaten

What is the fact of it all, all chips are all sold out... Demand exceeds everyone's production. No matter what.

Profilbild von Stock Printer
Stock Printervor 9 Monaten

You explain the bear case for $AMD and then attach it to $NVDA

Profilbild von Ξdo
Ξdovor 9 Monaten

Good luck betting against Nvidia

Profilbild von sanket patel
sanket patelvor 9 Monaten

Well, genius, surely competitors will eventually catch up. But consider that NVDA is selling "AI supercomputers," while competitors are trying to beat them on the GPU front. Also, you don't know how big this pie is going to get: data centers, cars, robots, laptops, phones... NVDA could grow for years after competitors catch up, because the pie keeps growing.

Profilbild von Ivan Behunek
Ivan Behunekvor 9 Monaten

NVIDIA is AI compounder, they are in robotics, healthcare and much more other stuff.

Profilbild von Boochao
Boochaovor 9 Monaten

This is why my only holdings are $TSLA and $AMZN because they are the major applications of AI

Profilbild von SmilinJim
SmilinJimvor 9 Monaten

Might take 5 years to catch up. NVDA will be innovating as well

Profilbild von Himanshu Kumar
Himanshu Kumarvor 9 Monaten

Alternative chipsets now demonstrate a 20% performance increase within the same thermal envelope.

Profilbild von Mark
Markvor 9 Monaten

You missed it! You are not avoiding it. 🤣 you loser!

Profilbild von lawson crusade
lawson crusadevor 9 Monaten

thats fucking BS, AMD hasn’t caught up at all, youre a fucking short, i hope your followers aren’t as stupid as you think they are🤣🤣🤣🤣

Profilbild von nithin
nithinvor 9 Monaten

Grace Blackwell , nvl72, newer generation Rubio chips is how nvidia will keep its margins. Also each generation of chips will offer 5x performance over previous generation

Profilbild von sparkpaul
sparkpaulvor 9 Monaten

@alojoh what’s your take?

Profilbild von The_alpha_signal
The_alpha_signalvor 9 Monaten

When a researcher at Stanford publishes a new breakthrough paper, the code is almost always written in PyTorch optimized for CUDA. Disclosure: Long NVDA, versus 170/175 based on behavioral parameters and deep research.

Profilbild von Youssef El Manssouri
Youssef El Manssourivor 9 Monaten

AMD caught up in hardware ignores CUDA. The software ecosystem is the moat, not the silicon. Developers don't switch because benchmarks improved. They switch when the pain of staying exceeds the pain of moving.

Profilbild von darkseidz
darkseidzvor 9 Monaten

You’re such an idiot. People like you will spout shit like this and be afraid of ever shorting the company. Just rambling on about stuff you’re clueless about. Buying 100k of followers too? lol

Profilbild von Joncy Sumulong
Joncy Sumulongvor 9 Monaten

@grok how will know-it-all self-proclaimed geniuses on X entertainingly counterargue the above tweet in the way of @IfindRetards and the sharp succinct first principles straightforward insight of Lee Kuan Yew. Itemize bulletize enumerate in 6 points.

Profilbild von Chansoo Byeon
Chansoo Byeonvor 9 Monaten

Buy $TSLA Buy American 🇺🇲 Buy Winner 🏆 Buy Tesla ♥️ Best products & services like Tesla & Starlink simply WIN 🌎💪💪💪 Way too many people don't know buying a Tesla is cheaper than buying a Corolla! & Don't forget to use a Tesla referral code when ordering your Tesla! Tesla has expanded its referral program to & certain parts of Europe & Asia! USA & Canada: up to $1000 off & 3 months of FSD Germany: €250 France: €500 Netherlands: €500 Norway: 11,500kr UK: £500 Australia 🦘: $1400AUD Italia: €500 Switzerland: 250 CHF Sweden: 11400 SEK South Korea 🇰🇷: 165,000 Won Japan: 60,000 yen Singapore: S$1200 Malaysia: RM 4200 Thailand: B34,000 Here is mine if you need one: DMs are open for questions. FSD is mind-blowing!! 👍👍👍👍♥️

Profilbild von my investing muse
my investing musevor 9 Monaten

When will the other chip companies catch up with Nvidia?

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Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.

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The UK Government has just announced a £1.1bn package for AI Hardware! LETS GO Here's what is in the package: > £750m for a national AI supercomputer that will run on a heterogeneous mixed chip system (which Danyal Akarca and Callosum are building the future for) > Of the £750m, £400m will go towards equipping the UK’s AI supercomputer with next-generation chips, which could include buying chips from UK companies OLIX and Fractile > £120m will fund a new AI Hardware Innovation Programme to give british companies the funding to design, develop and test innovative novel chips > £20m+ of the programme will expand the Scaling Inference Lab, delivered by ARIA and CommonAI > £45 million in new support for skills including backing doctoral training and undergraduate bursaries to train more engineers, chip designers and technicians I caught up with the Minister of AI Kanishka Narayan MP to get all the details. LETS GO amazing news 👏
15:13

The UK Government has just announced a £1.1bn package for AI Hardware! LETS GO Here's what is in the package: > £750m for a national AI supercomputer that will run on a heterogeneous mixed chip system (which Danyal Akarca and Callosum are building the future for) > Of the £750m, £400m will go towards equipping the UK’s AI supercomputer with next-generation chips, which could include buying chips from UK companies OLIX and Fractile > £120m will fund a new AI Hardware Innovation Programme to give british companies the funding to design, develop and test innovative novel chips > £20m+ of the programme will expand the Scaling Inference Lab, delivered by ARIA and CommonAI > £45 million in new support for skills including backing doctoral training and undergraduate bursaries to train more engineers, chip designers and technicians I caught up with the Minister of AI Kanishka Narayan MP to get all the details. LETS GO amazing news 👏

Seb Johnson

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