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Postgame In The (D3FB) Huddle Interviews - Stagg Bowl LII Edition after Falcon Football's 24-14 victory over North Central - with Sr. DL Jack Olson & Jr. WR Blake Rohrer. The UW-River Falls Athletics are #d3fb National Champions!

Frank Rossi

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34,271 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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TELANGANA - The Powerhouse of the Monsoon. While extreme monsoon rains are typically associated with the Western Ghats and the North East, Telangana has increasingly emerged become a new center for extreme monsoon rains, witnessing some of its most intense and frequent downpours in the last ten years. Central Telangana was drenched with 300–420 mm of rain within 24 hours, just two days ago, under the influence of The increasing occurrence of these extreme rainfall events indicates a strengthening monsoon pattern, contributing to recurrent flooding and surface inundation across the state.. Back in 2024, Telangana also faced extreme rainfall Kakarvai in Khammam logged 520 mm and Nellikudur in Mahabubabad saw 460 mm on September 1, while the usually arid Kodad was drenched with 344.8 mm just a day earlier. In July 2023, a low-pressure system (BB5) over the Bay of Bengal brought devastating rains to Telangana. Lakshmidevipeta in Mulugu district recorded an astounding 649.8 mm in 24 hours, while Chityal in Jayashankar Bhupalpally saw 610 mm on the same day. Across the state, over 70 locations reported extreme rainfall with 18 places above 300 mm and another 35 above 200 mm. The 2022 monsoon will be remembered for the historic Godavari floods, the river at Bhadrachalam swelled to 71.3 feet, releasing 24,43,000 Cusecs after days of relentless rain over Maharashtra and Telangana. Even usually dry Nalgonda saw an unprecedented 192 mm on July 23, while Khanapur (Nirmal) recorded 290 mm on July 14, during a week of intense rainfall across the state. 2021 - A low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal in early September 2021 brought exceptionally heavy rainfall to Telangana, resulting in flooding across several districts. The IMD reported 390 mm at Nadikuda (Warangal) in 24 hours ending 7 September, with significant totals of 310 mm at Malliala, 290 mm at Bornapalli, 260 mm at Warangal, and 250 mm at Karimnagar. The overall state rainfall was approximately 30% above normal for the period. The 2020 monsoon stands out for the historic Hyderabad floods, when the city was battered by unprecedented rains in mid-October. On October 14th, rainfall crossed 200 mm across many parts of the city Himayatnagar (298.8 mm), Charminar (245 mm), Bandlaguda (242 mm), and the SR Campus gauge reported an exceptional 311 mm. Across Telangana, the season’s rainfall was 46% above normal. Even before the recent extremes, Telangana had witnessed above-normal monsoon years. In 2019, the state averaged 1,018.2 mm of rainfall against a normal of 938.8 mm, while in 2016, the average reached 1,032 mm, about 10% higher than the state’s long-term mean of ~939 mm. Back in 2013, parts of northern Telangana witnessed exceptional monsoon rains Wazeedu (Mulugu) recorded 517.5 mm on July 19, and Dahegaon in Kumuram Bheem Asifabad dist logged 503.6 mm on July 23. The forested regions of Tadwai, Venkatapuram, and Wazeedu remain particularly vulnerable to extreme rainfall events. The increasing occurrence of these extreme rainfall events indicates a strengthening monsoon pattern, contributing to recurrent flooding and surface inundation across the state. Video from Warangal city.

TELANGANA - The Powerhouse of the Monsoon. While extreme monsoon rains are typically associated with the Western Ghats and the North East, Telangana has increasingly emerged become a new center for extreme monsoon rains, witnessing some of its most intense and frequent downpours in the last ten years. Central Telangana was drenched with 300–420 mm of rain within 24 hours, just two days ago, under the influence of The increasing occurrence of these extreme rainfall events indicates a strengthening monsoon pattern, contributing to recurrent flooding and surface inundation across the state.. Back in 2024, Telangana also faced extreme rainfall Kakarvai in Khammam logged 520 mm and Nellikudur in Mahabubabad saw 460 mm on September 1, while the usually arid Kodad was drenched with 344.8 mm just a day earlier. In July 2023, a low-pressure system (BB5) over the Bay of Bengal brought devastating rains to Telangana. Lakshmidevipeta in Mulugu district recorded an astounding 649.8 mm in 24 hours, while Chityal in Jayashankar Bhupalpally saw 610 mm on the same day. Across the state, over 70 locations reported extreme rainfall with 18 places above 300 mm and another 35 above 200 mm. The 2022 monsoon will be remembered for the historic Godavari floods, the river at Bhadrachalam swelled to 71.3 feet, releasing 24,43,000 Cusecs after days of relentless rain over Maharashtra and Telangana. Even usually dry Nalgonda saw an unprecedented 192 mm on July 23, while Khanapur (Nirmal) recorded 290 mm on July 14, during a week of intense rainfall across the state. 2021 - A low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal in early September 2021 brought exceptionally heavy rainfall to Telangana, resulting in flooding across several districts. The IMD reported 390 mm at Nadikuda (Warangal) in 24 hours ending 7 September, with significant totals of 310 mm at Malliala, 290 mm at Bornapalli, 260 mm at Warangal, and 250 mm at Karimnagar. The overall state rainfall was approximately 30% above normal for the period. The 2020 monsoon stands out for the historic Hyderabad floods, when the city was battered by unprecedented rains in mid-October. On October 14th, rainfall crossed 200 mm across many parts of the city Himayatnagar (298.8 mm), Charminar (245 mm), Bandlaguda (242 mm), and the SR Campus gauge reported an exceptional 311 mm. Across Telangana, the season’s rainfall was 46% above normal. Even before the recent extremes, Telangana had witnessed above-normal monsoon years. In 2019, the state averaged 1,018.2 mm of rainfall against a normal of 938.8 mm, while in 2016, the average reached 1,032 mm, about 10% higher than the state’s long-term mean of ~939 mm. Back in 2013, parts of northern Telangana witnessed exceptional monsoon rains Wazeedu (Mulugu) recorded 517.5 mm on July 19, and Dahegaon in Kumuram Bheem Asifabad dist logged 503.6 mm on July 23. The forested regions of Tadwai, Venkatapuram, and Wazeedu remain particularly vulnerable to extreme rainfall events. The increasing occurrence of these extreme rainfall events indicates a strengthening monsoon pattern, contributing to recurrent flooding and surface inundation across the state. Video from Warangal city.

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Here is a statement from the Zimbabwe National Editor's Forum on the arrest and detention of AMH journalist Blessed Mhlanga. Please RETWEET IT The Zimbabwe National Editor's Forum (ZINEF) is deeply disturbed and concerned by the arrest of Alpha Media Holdings' online broadcasting platform HStv presenter Blessed Mhlanga by police earlier today after his recent of interviews with one of the war veterans leaders Blessed Geza and others. Police had earlier said that they had been looking for Mhlanga for questioning in connection with claimed violations of Section 164 of the Criminal Law (Codification and Reform) Act, Chapter 9:23; for allegedly transmitting data messages that incite violence. The two charges emanate from statements, which were allegedly uttered by Geza, a former liberation war veteran, and a Zanu PF political party central committee member during interviews on 27 January 2025 and on 11 February 2025. Mhlanga was interrogated by police today, 24 February 2025, about the broadcaster’s operations and press conferences addressed by Geza. Mhlanga, who is represented by Harare lawyer Chris Mhike, has been detained overnight at Harare Central Police Station and is expected to appear in court tomorrow. Mhike confirmed Mhlanga has been detained in police cells overnight and will appear in court tomorrow. Geza is now wanted by police who have since pressed four criminal charges against him, including undermining the authority of and insulting the President. In the same vein, Geza’s wife Roseline Tawengwa was also picked by police over her husband's whereabouts which remain unknown. In this context, ZINEF strongly condemns the unwarranted arrest and harassment of Mhlanga who was simply doing his job as a journalist by interviewing war veterans in the public interest. The interviews constituted legitimate journalism practice and media business. Mhlanga's arrest - which has a chilling effect on journalists' professional work - is a clear attack on press freedom and constitutionally guaranteed rights, particularly freedom of expression. We demand the immediate release of Mhlanga and call on authorities to ensure he is not harassed, harmed or tortured while in police custody. It is always disturbing and unacceptable to us when journalists get arrested for merely doing their job. As the now clichéd yet apt refrain goes - journalism is not a crime. ZINEF also calls on the government to respect constitutional rights of journalists, especially media freedom enshrined in section 61 of the constitution, which protects the right to freedom of expression, including freedom to seek, receive, and communicate information, as well as freedom of the media, allowing journalists to protect their sources and enabling establishment of broadcast and electronic media subject to state licensing procedures that are independent of government influence; essentially guaranteeing the right to a free press with limitations only for necessary reasons like public safety or protecting individual reputations. While we appreciate that freedom of expression does not include promoting violence, hate speech, or damaging people's reputations, we are clear that Mhlanga's interviews fall within the ambit of media freedom and freedom of expression, as read with the Bill of Rights in Chapter 4 of the constitution and other sections that protect civil and political liberties of citizens; that is freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, freedom of movement, and the right to a fair hearing. Besides, we urge government to create a safe and conducive working environment for journalists to operate without fear of harassment or intimidation. We stand in firm solidarity with Mhlanga, his family and colleagues, and we will continue to advocate for the protection of journalists' rights and the promotion of press freedom and other democratic rights in Zimbabwe. Dumisani Muleya, ZINEF chairperson.

Here is a statement from the Zimbabwe National Editor's Forum on the arrest and detention of AMH journalist Blessed Mhlanga. Please RETWEET IT The Zimbabwe National Editor's Forum (ZINEF) is deeply disturbed and concerned by the arrest of Alpha Media Holdings' online broadcasting platform HStv presenter Blessed Mhlanga by police earlier today after his recent of interviews with one of the war veterans leaders Blessed Geza and others. Police had earlier said that they had been looking for Mhlanga for questioning in connection with claimed violations of Section 164 of the Criminal Law (Codification and Reform) Act, Chapter 9:23; for allegedly transmitting data messages that incite violence. The two charges emanate from statements, which were allegedly uttered by Geza, a former liberation war veteran, and a Zanu PF political party central committee member during interviews on 27 January 2025 and on 11 February 2025. Mhlanga was interrogated by police today, 24 February 2025, about the broadcaster’s operations and press conferences addressed by Geza. Mhlanga, who is represented by Harare lawyer Chris Mhike, has been detained overnight at Harare Central Police Station and is expected to appear in court tomorrow. Mhike confirmed Mhlanga has been detained in police cells overnight and will appear in court tomorrow. Geza is now wanted by police who have since pressed four criminal charges against him, including undermining the authority of and insulting the President. In the same vein, Geza’s wife Roseline Tawengwa was also picked by police over her husband's whereabouts which remain unknown. In this context, ZINEF strongly condemns the unwarranted arrest and harassment of Mhlanga who was simply doing his job as a journalist by interviewing war veterans in the public interest. The interviews constituted legitimate journalism practice and media business. Mhlanga's arrest - which has a chilling effect on journalists' professional work - is a clear attack on press freedom and constitutionally guaranteed rights, particularly freedom of expression. We demand the immediate release of Mhlanga and call on authorities to ensure he is not harassed, harmed or tortured while in police custody. It is always disturbing and unacceptable to us when journalists get arrested for merely doing their job. As the now clichéd yet apt refrain goes - journalism is not a crime. ZINEF also calls on the government to respect constitutional rights of journalists, especially media freedom enshrined in section 61 of the constitution, which protects the right to freedom of expression, including freedom to seek, receive, and communicate information, as well as freedom of the media, allowing journalists to protect their sources and enabling establishment of broadcast and electronic media subject to state licensing procedures that are independent of government influence; essentially guaranteeing the right to a free press with limitations only for necessary reasons like public safety or protecting individual reputations. While we appreciate that freedom of expression does not include promoting violence, hate speech, or damaging people's reputations, we are clear that Mhlanga's interviews fall within the ambit of media freedom and freedom of expression, as read with the Bill of Rights in Chapter 4 of the constitution and other sections that protect civil and political liberties of citizens; that is freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly, freedom of movement, and the right to a fair hearing. Besides, we urge government to create a safe and conducive working environment for journalists to operate without fear of harassment or intimidation. We stand in firm solidarity with Mhlanga, his family and colleagues, and we will continue to advocate for the protection of journalists' rights and the promotion of press freedom and other democratic rights in Zimbabwe. Dumisani Muleya, ZINEF chairperson.

Hopewell Chin’ono

90,475 просмотров • 1 год назад

I've been asked to review and provide thoughts on the question of a potential targeting call in the Hardin-Simmons Cowboy Football / UMHB Football🏈 #d3fb game Saturday. I have synced up two videos -- one from UMHB's broadcast and one posted by In The (D3FB) Huddle contributor Riley Conlee (Riley Conlee) (if he could provide credit to the videographer of it, I'd appreciate it). There is a full-speed view and a 20% speed view of the central action included in the video. To evaluate targeting, we have to review both aspects of the rule to see what, if anything, qualifies. I want to provide the entire set of rules (9-1-3 & 9-1-4): "Targeting and Making Forcible Contact With the Crown of the Helmet ARTICLE 3. No player shall target and make forcible contact against an opponent with the crown of their helmet. The crown of the helmet is the top segment of the helmet; namely, the circular area defined by a 6-inch radius from the apex (top) of the helmet. This foul requires that there be at least one indicator of targeting (See Note 1 below). When in question, it is a foul. (Rule 9-6) (A.R. 9-1-3-I) Targeting and Making Forcible Contact to Head or Neck Area of a Defenseless Player ARTICLE 4. No player shall target and make forcible contact to the head or neck area of a defenseless opponent (See Note 2 below) with the helmet, forearm, hand, fist, elbow or shoulder. This foul requires that there be at least one indicator of targeting (See Note 1 below). When in question, it is a foul (Rules 2-27-14 and 9-6). (A.R. 9-1-4-I-VI) Note 1: “Targeting” means that a player takes aim at an opponent for purposes of attacking with forcible contact that goes beyond making a legal tackle or a legal block or playing the ball. Some indicators of targeting include but are not limited to: - Launch. A player leaving their feet to attack an opponent by an upward and forward thrust of the body to make forcible contact in the head or neck area. - A crouch followed by an upward and forward thrust to attack with forcible contact at the head or neck area, even though one or both feet are still on the ground. - Leading with helmet, shoulder, forearm, fist, hand or elbow to attack with forcible contact at the head or neck area. - Lowering the head before attacking by initiating forcible contact with the crown of the helmet. Note 2: Defenseless player (Rule 2-27-14). When in question, a player is defenseless. Examples of defenseless players include but are not limited to: - A player in the act of or just after throwing a pass. This includes an offensive player in a passing posture with focus downfield. - A receiver attempting to catch a forward pass or in position to receive a backward pass, or one who has completed a catch and has not had time to protect themselves or has not clearly become a ball carrier. - A kicker in the act of or just after kicking a ball, or during the kick or the return. - A kick returner attempting to catch or recover a kick, or one who has completed a catch or recovery and has not had time to protect themselves or has not clearly become a ball carrier. - A player on the ground. - A player obviously out of the play. - A player who receives a blind-side block. - A ball carrier already in the grasp of an opponent and whose forward progress has been stopped. - A quarterback any time after a change of possession - A ball carrier who has obviously given themselves up and is sliding feet- first. - A player attempting to recover a loose ball." We need to start at Note 2 to see if Kyle Brown qualified here as a "defenseless player." If not, then 9-1-4 would not apply to him here. Kyle was not a receiver or a passer per se here -- he was clearly a runner downfield and was not in the grasp of any player. As a result, he was not "defenseless" by definition. That means that the only way targeting can be called here is if the provisions of Rule 9-1-3 were violated. Rule 9-1-3 is VERY specific about the initial requirement before we can go to the question of a required indicator: "No player shall target and make forcible contact against an opponent with the crown of their helmet." The crown of the helmet is "the top segment of the helmet, specifically the circular area with a 6-inch radius from the apex (top) of the helmet." In the videos, we see a couple of telling signs. First, Kyle appeared to actually lower HIS helmet as the contact became imminent, which is something coaches advise against for a variety of reasons, including self-preservation. But what is telling is that the UMHB defender attempted to peel off as he saw the angle of the contact he was heading toward with Brown. Specifically, he appeared to end up perpendicular to Brown, perhaps catching Brown's facemask enough to cause the helmet to fly. Yet, that contact was NOT with the defender's crown. As a result, since Brown was not defenseless by rule and because the crown of the helmet was not used for forcible contact to the head/neck area, the picking up of the flag by the officials was appropriate. That said, I spoke with an official who reviewed the videos without commentary and who landed in the same spot as I did concerning the above. They stated that if immediate replay review was available, crews will generally throw the flag and go to review (here, it likely would have been overturned by review, preserving the defender's eligibility). Since the ASC is not providing the on-field replay review yet, the officials' decision would have impacted the game by ejecting a player for the last 6 minutes of the first half until a Halftime review would have been available. For those wondering about how replay is impacting the game, I think this is a good reminder of the nuances it can impact.

I've been asked to review and provide thoughts on the question of a potential targeting call in the Hardin-Simmons Cowboy Football / UMHB Football🏈 #d3fb game Saturday. I have synced up two videos -- one from UMHB's broadcast and one posted by In The (D3FB) Huddle contributor Riley Conlee (Riley Conlee) (if he could provide credit to the videographer of it, I'd appreciate it). There is a full-speed view and a 20% speed view of the central action included in the video. To evaluate targeting, we have to review both aspects of the rule to see what, if anything, qualifies. I want to provide the entire set of rules (9-1-3 & 9-1-4): "Targeting and Making Forcible Contact With the Crown of the Helmet ARTICLE 3. No player shall target and make forcible contact against an opponent with the crown of their helmet. The crown of the helmet is the top segment of the helmet; namely, the circular area defined by a 6-inch radius from the apex (top) of the helmet. This foul requires that there be at least one indicator of targeting (See Note 1 below). When in question, it is a foul. (Rule 9-6) (A.R. 9-1-3-I) Targeting and Making Forcible Contact to Head or Neck Area of a Defenseless Player ARTICLE 4. No player shall target and make forcible contact to the head or neck area of a defenseless opponent (See Note 2 below) with the helmet, forearm, hand, fist, elbow or shoulder. This foul requires that there be at least one indicator of targeting (See Note 1 below). When in question, it is a foul (Rules 2-27-14 and 9-6). (A.R. 9-1-4-I-VI) Note 1: “Targeting” means that a player takes aim at an opponent for purposes of attacking with forcible contact that goes beyond making a legal tackle or a legal block or playing the ball. Some indicators of targeting include but are not limited to: - Launch. A player leaving their feet to attack an opponent by an upward and forward thrust of the body to make forcible contact in the head or neck area. - A crouch followed by an upward and forward thrust to attack with forcible contact at the head or neck area, even though one or both feet are still on the ground. - Leading with helmet, shoulder, forearm, fist, hand or elbow to attack with forcible contact at the head or neck area. - Lowering the head before attacking by initiating forcible contact with the crown of the helmet. Note 2: Defenseless player (Rule 2-27-14). When in question, a player is defenseless. Examples of defenseless players include but are not limited to: - A player in the act of or just after throwing a pass. This includes an offensive player in a passing posture with focus downfield. - A receiver attempting to catch a forward pass or in position to receive a backward pass, or one who has completed a catch and has not had time to protect themselves or has not clearly become a ball carrier. - A kicker in the act of or just after kicking a ball, or during the kick or the return. - A kick returner attempting to catch or recover a kick, or one who has completed a catch or recovery and has not had time to protect themselves or has not clearly become a ball carrier. - A player on the ground. - A player obviously out of the play. - A player who receives a blind-side block. - A ball carrier already in the grasp of an opponent and whose forward progress has been stopped. - A quarterback any time after a change of possession - A ball carrier who has obviously given themselves up and is sliding feet- first. - A player attempting to recover a loose ball." We need to start at Note 2 to see if Kyle Brown qualified here as a "defenseless player." If not, then 9-1-4 would not apply to him here. Kyle was not a receiver or a passer per se here -- he was clearly a runner downfield and was not in the grasp of any player. As a result, he was not "defenseless" by definition. That means that the only way targeting can be called here is if the provisions of Rule 9-1-3 were violated. Rule 9-1-3 is VERY specific about the initial requirement before we can go to the question of a required indicator: "No player shall target and make forcible contact against an opponent with the crown of their helmet." The crown of the helmet is "the top segment of the helmet, specifically the circular area with a 6-inch radius from the apex (top) of the helmet." In the videos, we see a couple of telling signs. First, Kyle appeared to actually lower HIS helmet as the contact became imminent, which is something coaches advise against for a variety of reasons, including self-preservation. But what is telling is that the UMHB defender attempted to peel off as he saw the angle of the contact he was heading toward with Brown. Specifically, he appeared to end up perpendicular to Brown, perhaps catching Brown's facemask enough to cause the helmet to fly. Yet, that contact was NOT with the defender's crown. As a result, since Brown was not defenseless by rule and because the crown of the helmet was not used for forcible contact to the head/neck area, the picking up of the flag by the officials was appropriate. That said, I spoke with an official who reviewed the videos without commentary and who landed in the same spot as I did concerning the above. They stated that if immediate replay review was available, crews will generally throw the flag and go to review (here, it likely would have been overturned by review, preserving the defender's eligibility). Since the ASC is not providing the on-field replay review yet, the officials' decision would have impacted the game by ejecting a player for the last 6 minutes of the first half until a Halftime review would have been available. For those wondering about how replay is impacting the game, I think this is a good reminder of the nuances it can impact.

Frank Rossi

10,688 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

The Yale professor who accurately predicted the entire Iran war just said World War III is about to start with 90% certainty. He explained exactly how it starts, who triggers it, and why NOBODY can stop it. Professor Jiang made 3 predictions in 2024 that all came true: 1. Trump would win the election 2. He would start a war with Iran 3. The US would lose that war Now he has made 8 NEW predictions and every single one is terrifying... The war in Iran was never about Iran. It was about saving the US dollar. America's empire runs on the petrodollar where every country must use dollars to buy oil. But when America froze $200 billion in Russian assets after Ukraine, it told the world the dollar is a political weapon. So Russia, China, and Iran started building a trade bloc to ditch the dollar entirely. These 3 countries cover the entire Asian continent and can build railways connecting their economies while cutting America out. Trump's plan was to bomb Iran's leadership and watch them surrender like Venezuela did in January. But Iran is a mountain fortress with 92 million people and 31 independent armies across 31 provinces each designed so no single strike can wipe them out. 6 weeks in, decapitation failed. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, attacked US bases across the Gulf, and started charging ships $2 million per crossing to fund their war. And here's where it becomes a world war... Russia's grand strategy is the Third Rome doctrine. If Iran falls, Russia's southern border is exposed and both Russia's trade corridor and China's Belt and Road run directly through Iranian territory. Losing Iran means permanently losing access to the Middle East and Africa. So Russia enters the war. When Russia enters, China follows. They reinforce Tehran from east and north, provide financing, and Russia puts Iran under its nuclear umbrella taking tactical nukes completely off the table. Professor Jiang put the probability at 80 to 90%. And while the world watches the Middle East, North Korea is making its move: The US pulled THAAD missile defense out of South Korea for Iran operations. Seoul sits 20 minutes of artillery from the North Korean border with 25 million people exposed. North Korea doesn't even NEED to attack. They just threaten. South Koreans are rich with everything to lose. North Koreans have nothing to lose. Simple extortion. Nobody is coming to help because America is stuck in the Middle East. But the prediction that will BREAK the internet is this one: Trump gets a THIRD term. Professor Jiang laid out two constitutional loopholes. First is Trump runs as VP under Don Jr. or Vance, they win, the president steps down, Trump takes over through succession. The 22nd Amendment bans being elected president more than twice but says nothing about becoming president through succession. The second option is even simpler: By 2028 America is at war on multiple fronts with a draft in effect so Trump invokes emergency war powers and delays the election just like Zelensky did in Ukraine. And the draft is already real. Automatic registration starts in December. Males 18 to 24 are entered into the system automatically. The Department of War literally PUBLISHED the playbook online: - Secure the Western Hemisphere as US territory which explains Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Cuba, Panama - Force NATO to fight Russia - Strangle China through maritime choke points - Convert civilian factories into weapons production (the Pentagon already told Ford and GM to prepare to STOP making cars and start making munitions) His final advice was genuinely one of the realest things I've heard all year: We will need leaders. Not politicians or billionaires. Average people who knock on their neighbor's door during a blackout and say let us figure this out together. Because when empires collapse, and he believes America's collapses within 10 years, the people who survive built community before they needed it.

The Yale professor who accurately predicted the entire Iran war just said World War III is about to start with 90% certainty. He explained exactly how it starts, who triggers it, and why NOBODY can stop it. Professor Jiang made 3 predictions in 2024 that all came true: 1. Trump would win the election 2. He would start a war with Iran 3. The US would lose that war Now he has made 8 NEW predictions and every single one is terrifying... The war in Iran was never about Iran. It was about saving the US dollar. America's empire runs on the petrodollar where every country must use dollars to buy oil. But when America froze $200 billion in Russian assets after Ukraine, it told the world the dollar is a political weapon. So Russia, China, and Iran started building a trade bloc to ditch the dollar entirely. These 3 countries cover the entire Asian continent and can build railways connecting their economies while cutting America out. Trump's plan was to bomb Iran's leadership and watch them surrender like Venezuela did in January. But Iran is a mountain fortress with 92 million people and 31 independent armies across 31 provinces each designed so no single strike can wipe them out. 6 weeks in, decapitation failed. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, attacked US bases across the Gulf, and started charging ships $2 million per crossing to fund their war. And here's where it becomes a world war... Russia's grand strategy is the Third Rome doctrine. If Iran falls, Russia's southern border is exposed and both Russia's trade corridor and China's Belt and Road run directly through Iranian territory. Losing Iran means permanently losing access to the Middle East and Africa. So Russia enters the war. When Russia enters, China follows. They reinforce Tehran from east and north, provide financing, and Russia puts Iran under its nuclear umbrella taking tactical nukes completely off the table. Professor Jiang put the probability at 80 to 90%. And while the world watches the Middle East, North Korea is making its move: The US pulled THAAD missile defense out of South Korea for Iran operations. Seoul sits 20 minutes of artillery from the North Korean border with 25 million people exposed. North Korea doesn't even NEED to attack. They just threaten. South Koreans are rich with everything to lose. North Koreans have nothing to lose. Simple extortion. Nobody is coming to help because America is stuck in the Middle East. But the prediction that will BREAK the internet is this one: Trump gets a THIRD term. Professor Jiang laid out two constitutional loopholes. First is Trump runs as VP under Don Jr. or Vance, they win, the president steps down, Trump takes over through succession. The 22nd Amendment bans being elected president more than twice but says nothing about becoming president through succession. The second option is even simpler: By 2028 America is at war on multiple fronts with a draft in effect so Trump invokes emergency war powers and delays the election just like Zelensky did in Ukraine. And the draft is already real. Automatic registration starts in December. Males 18 to 24 are entered into the system automatically. The Department of War literally PUBLISHED the playbook online: - Secure the Western Hemisphere as US territory which explains Greenland, Canada, Venezuela, Cuba, Panama - Force NATO to fight Russia - Strangle China through maritime choke points - Convert civilian factories into weapons production (the Pentagon already told Ford and GM to prepare to STOP making cars and start making munitions) His final advice was genuinely one of the realest things I've heard all year: We will need leaders. Not politicians or billionaires. Average people who knock on their neighbor's door during a blackout and say let us figure this out together. Because when empires collapse, and he believes America's collapses within 10 years, the people who survive built community before they needed it.

Ricardo

926,464 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Why Syria’s Political Geography Looks Nothing Like Iraq’s Comparisons between Syria and Iraq usually assume both face the same problem: a weak central state trying to hold together a population split among large ethnic and religious communities. Their demographic and geographic structures are quite different, and those differences explain why federalism, communal power-sharing and territorial autonomy took hold in Iraq, and why the bargaining position of Syria's minorities is much weaker. In Iraq, the Shia are only slightly more than half the population, a majority but not a consolidated one, and concentrated in the south. Inferred from provincial seat allocations, they account for roughly 56 to 58 percent of Iraqis. Sunni Arabs, with their own contiguous region, make up around 22 to 24 percent, and Kurds, who also hold their own region, around 18 percent. This produces a form of territorialised pluralism: the largest community holds a majority that falls short of dominance, while the two other blocs together account for around 40 percent of the population and occupy large, relatively contiguous regions of their own. Syria is built differently. A Sunni Arab bloc makes up around 75 percent of the population, with smaller Sunni communities such as Turkmen and Circassians counted politically within it. The rest are much smaller: Kurds and Alawites at around 10 percent each, Druze at 3 percent, Christians at 2 percent. No single minority reaches beyond a tenth of the country. The two countries also differ in how those minorities are distributed. Iraq's Kurdistan Region is overwhelmingly Kurdish and holds over 70 percent of the country's Kurds, roughly 14 percent of Iraq's total population. In Syria, the areas the Kurdish-led SDF held until its dissolution in August 2026 contained only about 40 percent of the country's Kurds, or around 4 percent of the total population. Syria's Kurds therefore enter any negotiation from a far weaker position. Minorities also differ in whether they hold a consolidated region of their own. Iraq rests on three large components, each with its own region. Syria's minorities are more scattered, and where they do concentrate, as the Alawites do along the coast, they lack a major city of their own. Urban settlement follows the same divide, and cities matter because geographic consolidation is central to any territorial project. Take the five largest in each country. In Iraq, Baghdad is close to two-thirds Shia and one-third Sunni, which keeps it mixed. Past the capital the split runs along group lines: Mosul is predominantly Sunni Arab, Basra predominantly Shia Arab, Erbil majority Kurdish, Najaf majority Shia Arab. Syria's largest cities run the other way. Damascus is likely around 80 percent Sunni Arab, and Aleppo, Homs and Hama are also predominantly Sunni. Only the fifth, Latakia, is not Sunni-majority, and even there Alawites and Sunnis sit near parity at roughly 50 and 40 percent. Syria has no major city where a minority forms a clear majority, and no equivalent of Erbil or Basra, a national urban centre dominated by one of the principal minorities. These differences shape coalition politics. In Iraq, the Shia majority is large enough to lead national politics but too small to ignore the other two blocs, which together hold around 40 percent of the country, each with its own region, cities and political organisations. Syria's remaining quarter cannot act as a single bloc: its minorities are geographically separated, and their political priorities diverge accordingly. A majority of 56 to 58 percent in Iraq faces two communities of roughly 23 and 18 percent. A majority approaching 75 percent in Syria faces several much smaller ones, none close to the weight of Iraq's Sunni Arab or Kurdish blocs. Iraq's principal communities function as relatively complete political-geographic units. Syria has one large demographic core and several much smaller minorities around it. More details:

Why Syria’s Political Geography Looks Nothing Like Iraq’s Comparisons between Syria and Iraq usually assume both face the same problem: a weak central state trying to hold together a population split among large ethnic and religious communities. Their demographic and geographic structures are quite different, and those differences explain why federalism, communal power-sharing and territorial autonomy took hold in Iraq, and why the bargaining position of Syria's minorities is much weaker. In Iraq, the Shia are only slightly more than half the population, a majority but not a consolidated one, and concentrated in the south. Inferred from provincial seat allocations, they account for roughly 56 to 58 percent of Iraqis. Sunni Arabs, with their own contiguous region, make up around 22 to 24 percent, and Kurds, who also hold their own region, around 18 percent. This produces a form of territorialised pluralism: the largest community holds a majority that falls short of dominance, while the two other blocs together account for around 40 percent of the population and occupy large, relatively contiguous regions of their own. Syria is built differently. A Sunni Arab bloc makes up around 75 percent of the population, with smaller Sunni communities such as Turkmen and Circassians counted politically within it. The rest are much smaller: Kurds and Alawites at around 10 percent each, Druze at 3 percent, Christians at 2 percent. No single minority reaches beyond a tenth of the country. The two countries also differ in how those minorities are distributed. Iraq's Kurdistan Region is overwhelmingly Kurdish and holds over 70 percent of the country's Kurds, roughly 14 percent of Iraq's total population. In Syria, the areas the Kurdish-led SDF held until its dissolution in August 2026 contained only about 40 percent of the country's Kurds, or around 4 percent of the total population. Syria's Kurds therefore enter any negotiation from a far weaker position. Minorities also differ in whether they hold a consolidated region of their own. Iraq rests on three large components, each with its own region. Syria's minorities are more scattered, and where they do concentrate, as the Alawites do along the coast, they lack a major city of their own. Urban settlement follows the same divide, and cities matter because geographic consolidation is central to any territorial project. Take the five largest in each country. In Iraq, Baghdad is close to two-thirds Shia and one-third Sunni, which keeps it mixed. Past the capital the split runs along group lines: Mosul is predominantly Sunni Arab, Basra predominantly Shia Arab, Erbil majority Kurdish, Najaf majority Shia Arab. Syria's largest cities run the other way. Damascus is likely around 80 percent Sunni Arab, and Aleppo, Homs and Hama are also predominantly Sunni. Only the fifth, Latakia, is not Sunni-majority, and even there Alawites and Sunnis sit near parity at roughly 50 and 40 percent. Syria has no major city where a minority forms a clear majority, and no equivalent of Erbil or Basra, a national urban centre dominated by one of the principal minorities. These differences shape coalition politics. In Iraq, the Shia majority is large enough to lead national politics but too small to ignore the other two blocs, which together hold around 40 percent of the country, each with its own region, cities and political organisations. Syria's remaining quarter cannot act as a single bloc: its minorities are geographically separated, and their political priorities diverge accordingly. A majority of 56 to 58 percent in Iraq faces two communities of roughly 23 and 18 percent. A majority approaching 75 percent in Syria faces several much smaller ones, none close to the weight of Iraq's Sunni Arab or Kurdish blocs. Iraq's principal communities function as relatively complete political-geographic units. Syria has one large demographic core and several much smaller minorities around it. More details:

The National Context

19,117 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: LAST 24 HOURS • Iran widened its fire again with a broad evening missile barrage on central Israel and continued attacks across the Gulf, including a drone strike that hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport • Israel intensified strikes across Iran, with reported hits in Tehran, Qazvin and Alborz industrial areas, plus continued pressure on missile infrastructure and launch cells • Hezbollah kept the northern front active, including a direct rocket hit on a building in Kiryat Shmona, while Israel deepened its Lebanon campaign and Katz publicly framed the objective as a security zone up to the Litani • The diplomatic track moved forward, but only in the strangest possible way: Trump says talks are progressing, Iran still publicly denies direct negotiations, and multiple reports now point to JD Vance as Tehran’s preferred American interlocutor • The big picture is unchanged: the war is still live on every major front, but the center of gravity is shifting toward a contest over how it ends, who gets to define victory, and whether the Gulf will stay adjacent to the war or be pulled fully into it The most important thing to understand about the last 24 hours is that this was not a quiet period masked by negotiations. It was the opposite. The battlefield remained active from Tehran to southern Lebanon to Kuwait, even as Washington and Tehran edged further into a murky negotiation channel. That is what gives the last day its character: not de escalation, but simultaneous escalation and diplomacy, both moving at once. Open source reporting reflects the same picture, with repeated indications of strikes in Tehran and Qazvin, attacks near Baghdad airport, a Kuwait airport fuel fire, and a large Iranian barrage toward central Israel late in the window. **Special thanks to Michael W for your continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN MISSILE FIRE ON ISRAEL Iran kept up the pressure on Israel in two different ways over this window. Earlier in the cycle, a cluster warhead strike wounded nine people in Bnei Brak, with additional damage in Petah Tikva, while Hezbollah fire from Lebanon killed a woman near Mahanayim Junction and wounded several more in Kiryat Shmona. Later, near the end of the reporting window, Iran launched another broad barrage toward central Israel, with warnings stretching across Gush Dan, Sharon, Wadi Ara, Samaria, Judea and the Dead Sea region. Open source reporting you provided tracked that second wave in real time, showing how broad the alert footprint was even though initial reports indicated no immediate casualties from that specific evening barrage. This is what stands out operationally: Iran’s missile campaign is not gone, but it looks increasingly built around selective disruption rather than the huge opening barrages of the war. The salvos are still dangerous, still capable of civilian casualties and still capable of producing visually dramatic and politically effective moments, but they are landing against a backdrop of steadily intensifying strikes on Iran’s launch network. That makes each successful hit feel more deliberate and more strategic. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ THE AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN KEPT MOVING Israel’s strike campaign inside Iran also remained broad and geographically layered. Reuters reported renewed Israeli strikes as talks were being floated through intermediaries. Open source intelligence adds texture to that by showing repeated reporting from open source channels of impacts in eastern and western Tehran, the Alborz industrial zone in Qazvin province, and additional blasts reported across Khuzestan and other regions. There were also repeated reports of targeted assassination attempts in east Tehran, which fits the broader pattern of not just degrading launchers and production nodes, but also hunting the people tied to them. The color here matters. This no longer looks like a campaign limited to air defenses and obvious military compounds. The picture from the last 24 hours is of a system being pressed from multiple angles at once: missile depots, industrial support zones, launch crews, command elements and regime infrastructure in and around Tehran. Open source reporting reinforces that sense of breadth, especially the repeated references to Qazvin and Alborz secondary explosions and to ongoing heavy activity over Tehran. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ THE ENERGY WAR IS STILL HOT The clearest new regional energy development in this window was Kuwait. Reuters reported that a drone attack hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties. That matters not because the material damage was catastrophic, but because it again shows Iran or Iran aligned actors reaching directly for civilian and logistical energy infrastructure in Gulf states. This was not an abstract threat anymore. It was a live strike on a functioning international hub. Your outbox tracked the same event quickly and repeatedly, alongside additional open source reporting about nearby attacks and power disruptions in Kuwait. At the same time, the diplomatic and military discussion around the Strait of Hormuz kept shaping everything else. Markets moved on talk of a U.S. proposal and possible hosted talks in Pakistan or Turkey. Oil eased on negotiation optimism, but the underlying structure of the crisis remains the same: Iran still retains the ability to disrupt shipping and energy confidence without fully “closing” the Strait in a formal sense. That is why even modest signs of diplomacy can move oil sharply, and why even a localized drone strike in Kuwait still carries outsized weight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON IS NOT A SIDESHOW The northern front kept boiling. Reuters reported that Israel now intends to occupy a swathe of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, with Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly describing a “security zone” concept. That is not rhetoric you use if you still think this is a short punitive phase. At the tactical level, Hezbollah continued to demonstrate that it can still impose costs, including a direct rocket hit on a building in Kiryat Shmona and earlier casualties in the north. Meanwhile, open source reporting pointed to Israeli strikes in Nabatieh, Rashidiya, Bchamoun and broader southern Lebanese infrastructure, which matches the picture of sustained pressure rather than episodic retaliation. The broader meaning is straightforward. Israel is signaling that if the Iran war ends inconclusively on the Iranian front, it does not intend to leave Hezbollah’s northern threat structure intact and simply hope for the best. Lebanon is being shaped now as part of the endgame, not just the current fight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇶 IRAQ STAYED ACTIVE TOO Iraq remained active in the background, but it should not be treated as background noise. Open source intel reporting includes repeated reporting on a targeted U.S. strike on a vehicle near Baghdad airport and continued militia related activity tied to U.S. positions and proxy structures. That comes after the prior cycle’s major strikes on PMF and militia command nodes. It fits the larger pattern we have now seen for weeks: Iraq is not the main theater, but it is still one of the places where the war keeps trying to widen horizontally. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 THE NEGOTIATION TRACK GOT STRANGER, NOT CLEARER Trump is still publicly presenting the talks as real progress. Reuters reports that Pakistan conveyed a U.S. proposal, with Pakistan or Turkey possible venues, and that Washington has floated a broader framework dealing with nuclear capability, missiles and proxies. At the same time, Iran continues to publicly deny meaningful direct talks and has toughened its public stance, insisting on guarantees, compensation and no rollback of its missile deterrent. What makes the last 24 hours more interesting is the growing focus on who would even talk for the United States. Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post reporting both indicate that JD Vance is increasingly central to the diplomacy, with Tehran reportedly preferring him over Witkoff and Kushner. The diplomatic track here appears as both real and deeply unstable, with questions about who on the Iranian side actually holds authority and whether Washington is now seeking an end state short of outright regime collapse. That shift matters because it tells us something important: Washington increasingly seems to be searching for an off ramp that still looks like victory, while Israel and Gulf allies appear much less comfortable with ending this war before Iran’s military and proxy architecture are degraded further. That tension is now one of the defining features of the conflict. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW 1️⃣ The war is still fully active across multiple fronts Iran hit central Israel again, Kuwait airport was struck, Lebanon stayed hot and Israel kept pounding targets inside Iran. Negotiations did not replace combat. They were layered on top of it. 2️⃣ The pressure on Iran’s internal military system keeps deepening The accumulating pattern of strikes in Tehran, Qazvin, Alborz and other areas suggests a campaign that is still broadening the target set, not narrowing it. Open source reporting in your files strongly supports that picture. 3️⃣ The diplomatic track is real, but it is not clean Trump is selling progress. Iran is denying direct talks. Vance is becoming more central. And nobody looking at the battlefield would conclude that the war is genuinely close to stopping on its own. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BOTTOM LINE The last 24 hours painted a clearer picture than some of the recent reporting windows. This is no longer just a war of salvos and counterstrikes. It is now a war over end states. Iran is still trying to prove it can widen the cost map, not just hit Israel but keep the Gulf under pressure too. Israel is still trying to prove that sustained, system level degradation inside Iran can continue even while diplomacy swirls overhead. And Washington is trying to find a formula that can stop the war without looking like it backed down. That is why the reporting feels different now. The battlefield is still violent, but the arguments over how this ends are becoming just as important as the strikes themselves.

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: LAST 24 HOURS • Iran widened its fire again with a broad evening missile barrage on central Israel and continued attacks across the Gulf, including a drone strike that hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport • Israel intensified strikes across Iran, with reported hits in Tehran, Qazvin and Alborz industrial areas, plus continued pressure on missile infrastructure and launch cells • Hezbollah kept the northern front active, including a direct rocket hit on a building in Kiryat Shmona, while Israel deepened its Lebanon campaign and Katz publicly framed the objective as a security zone up to the Litani • The diplomatic track moved forward, but only in the strangest possible way: Trump says talks are progressing, Iran still publicly denies direct negotiations, and multiple reports now point to JD Vance as Tehran’s preferred American interlocutor • The big picture is unchanged: the war is still live on every major front, but the center of gravity is shifting toward a contest over how it ends, who gets to define victory, and whether the Gulf will stay adjacent to the war or be pulled fully into it The most important thing to understand about the last 24 hours is that this was not a quiet period masked by negotiations. It was the opposite. The battlefield remained active from Tehran to southern Lebanon to Kuwait, even as Washington and Tehran edged further into a murky negotiation channel. That is what gives the last day its character: not de escalation, but simultaneous escalation and diplomacy, both moving at once. Open source reporting reflects the same picture, with repeated indications of strikes in Tehran and Qazvin, attacks near Baghdad airport, a Kuwait airport fuel fire, and a large Iranian barrage toward central Israel late in the window. **Special thanks to Michael W for your continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN MISSILE FIRE ON ISRAEL Iran kept up the pressure on Israel in two different ways over this window. Earlier in the cycle, a cluster warhead strike wounded nine people in Bnei Brak, with additional damage in Petah Tikva, while Hezbollah fire from Lebanon killed a woman near Mahanayim Junction and wounded several more in Kiryat Shmona. Later, near the end of the reporting window, Iran launched another broad barrage toward central Israel, with warnings stretching across Gush Dan, Sharon, Wadi Ara, Samaria, Judea and the Dead Sea region. Open source reporting you provided tracked that second wave in real time, showing how broad the alert footprint was even though initial reports indicated no immediate casualties from that specific evening barrage. This is what stands out operationally: Iran’s missile campaign is not gone, but it looks increasingly built around selective disruption rather than the huge opening barrages of the war. The salvos are still dangerous, still capable of civilian casualties and still capable of producing visually dramatic and politically effective moments, but they are landing against a backdrop of steadily intensifying strikes on Iran’s launch network. That makes each successful hit feel more deliberate and more strategic. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ THE AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN KEPT MOVING Israel’s strike campaign inside Iran also remained broad and geographically layered. Reuters reported renewed Israeli strikes as talks were being floated through intermediaries. Open source intelligence adds texture to that by showing repeated reporting from open source channels of impacts in eastern and western Tehran, the Alborz industrial zone in Qazvin province, and additional blasts reported across Khuzestan and other regions. There were also repeated reports of targeted assassination attempts in east Tehran, which fits the broader pattern of not just degrading launchers and production nodes, but also hunting the people tied to them. The color here matters. This no longer looks like a campaign limited to air defenses and obvious military compounds. The picture from the last 24 hours is of a system being pressed from multiple angles at once: missile depots, industrial support zones, launch crews, command elements and regime infrastructure in and around Tehran. Open source reporting reinforces that sense of breadth, especially the repeated references to Qazvin and Alborz secondary explosions and to ongoing heavy activity over Tehran. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ THE ENERGY WAR IS STILL HOT The clearest new regional energy development in this window was Kuwait. Reuters reported that a drone attack hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties. That matters not because the material damage was catastrophic, but because it again shows Iran or Iran aligned actors reaching directly for civilian and logistical energy infrastructure in Gulf states. This was not an abstract threat anymore. It was a live strike on a functioning international hub. Your outbox tracked the same event quickly and repeatedly, alongside additional open source reporting about nearby attacks and power disruptions in Kuwait. At the same time, the diplomatic and military discussion around the Strait of Hormuz kept shaping everything else. Markets moved on talk of a U.S. proposal and possible hosted talks in Pakistan or Turkey. Oil eased on negotiation optimism, but the underlying structure of the crisis remains the same: Iran still retains the ability to disrupt shipping and energy confidence without fully “closing” the Strait in a formal sense. That is why even modest signs of diplomacy can move oil sharply, and why even a localized drone strike in Kuwait still carries outsized weight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON IS NOT A SIDESHOW The northern front kept boiling. Reuters reported that Israel now intends to occupy a swathe of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, with Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly describing a “security zone” concept. That is not rhetoric you use if you still think this is a short punitive phase. At the tactical level, Hezbollah continued to demonstrate that it can still impose costs, including a direct rocket hit on a building in Kiryat Shmona and earlier casualties in the north. Meanwhile, open source reporting pointed to Israeli strikes in Nabatieh, Rashidiya, Bchamoun and broader southern Lebanese infrastructure, which matches the picture of sustained pressure rather than episodic retaliation. The broader meaning is straightforward. Israel is signaling that if the Iran war ends inconclusively on the Iranian front, it does not intend to leave Hezbollah’s northern threat structure intact and simply hope for the best. Lebanon is being shaped now as part of the endgame, not just the current fight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇶 IRAQ STAYED ACTIVE TOO Iraq remained active in the background, but it should not be treated as background noise. Open source intel reporting includes repeated reporting on a targeted U.S. strike on a vehicle near Baghdad airport and continued militia related activity tied to U.S. positions and proxy structures. That comes after the prior cycle’s major strikes on PMF and militia command nodes. It fits the larger pattern we have now seen for weeks: Iraq is not the main theater, but it is still one of the places where the war keeps trying to widen horizontally. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 THE NEGOTIATION TRACK GOT STRANGER, NOT CLEARER Trump is still publicly presenting the talks as real progress. Reuters reports that Pakistan conveyed a U.S. proposal, with Pakistan or Turkey possible venues, and that Washington has floated a broader framework dealing with nuclear capability, missiles and proxies. At the same time, Iran continues to publicly deny meaningful direct talks and has toughened its public stance, insisting on guarantees, compensation and no rollback of its missile deterrent. What makes the last 24 hours more interesting is the growing focus on who would even talk for the United States. Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post reporting both indicate that JD Vance is increasingly central to the diplomacy, with Tehran reportedly preferring him over Witkoff and Kushner. The diplomatic track here appears as both real and deeply unstable, with questions about who on the Iranian side actually holds authority and whether Washington is now seeking an end state short of outright regime collapse. That shift matters because it tells us something important: Washington increasingly seems to be searching for an off ramp that still looks like victory, while Israel and Gulf allies appear much less comfortable with ending this war before Iran’s military and proxy architecture are degraded further. That tension is now one of the defining features of the conflict. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW 1️⃣ The war is still fully active across multiple fronts Iran hit central Israel again, Kuwait airport was struck, Lebanon stayed hot and Israel kept pounding targets inside Iran. Negotiations did not replace combat. They were layered on top of it. 2️⃣ The pressure on Iran’s internal military system keeps deepening The accumulating pattern of strikes in Tehran, Qazvin, Alborz and other areas suggests a campaign that is still broadening the target set, not narrowing it. Open source reporting in your files strongly supports that picture. 3️⃣ The diplomatic track is real, but it is not clean Trump is selling progress. Iran is denying direct talks. Vance is becoming more central. And nobody looking at the battlefield would conclude that the war is genuinely close to stopping on its own. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BOTTOM LINE The last 24 hours painted a clearer picture than some of the recent reporting windows. This is no longer just a war of salvos and counterstrikes. It is now a war over end states. Iran is still trying to prove it can widen the cost map, not just hit Israel but keep the Gulf under pressure too. Israel is still trying to prove that sustained, system level degradation inside Iran can continue even while diplomacy swirls overhead. And Washington is trying to find a formula that can stop the war without looking like it backed down. That is why the reporting feels different now. The battlefield is still violent, but the arguments over how this ends are becoming just as important as the strikes themselves.

Inside_Israel_Intel

23,818 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

President Xi’s New Year Address On New Year's Eve, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered his 2026 New Year message through China Media Group and the internet. The following is the full text of the message: Greetings to all! Year after year, life opens a fresh chapter. As the new year begins, I extend my best wishes to you from Beijing! The year 2025 marks the completion of China's 14th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development. Over the past five years, we have pressed ahead with enterprise and fortitude, and overcome many difficulties and challenges. We met the targets in the Plan and made solid advances on the new journey of Chinese modernization. Our economic output has crossed thresholds one after another, and it is expected to reach RMB 140 trillion yuan this year. Our economic strength, scientific and technological abilities, defense capabilities, and composite national strength all reached new heights. Clear waters and lush mountains have become a salient feature of our landscape. Our people enjoy a growing sense of gain, happiness and security. The past five years have been a truly remarkable journey, and our accomplishments have not come easily. Your unwavering hard work has made our nation thrive and prosper. I salute you all for your exceptional diligence and invaluable contributions. This year is full of indelible memories. We solemnly commemorated the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, and established the Taiwan Recovery Day. These grand national events were majestic and powerful, and the glory of victory will shine through the pages of history. They are inspiring all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation to remember history, honor fallen heroes, cherish peace, and create a better future. They are rallying a mighty force for the great rejuvenation of our nation. We sought to energize high-quality development through innovation. We integrated science and technology deeply with industries, and made a stream of new innovations. Many large AI models have been competing in a race to the top, and breakthroughs have been achieved in the research and development of our own chips. All this has turned China into one of the economies with the fastest growing innovation capabilities. The Tianwen-2 probe began its star-chasing journey to explore asteroids and comets. Construction of the hydropower project at the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started. China's first aircraft carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system was officially commissioned. Humanoid robots did kung fu kicks, and drones performed spectacular light shows. Inventions and innovations have boosted new quality productive forces and added colorful dimensions to our lives. We endeavored to nurture our spiritual home with cultural development. There was a surging public interest in cultural relics, museums, and intangible cultural heritage. A new Chinese cultural site was added to the World Heritage List. Cultural IPs such as Wukong and Nezha became global hits. The younger generation came to deem classic Chinese culture as the finest form of aesthetic expression. The cultural and tourism sectors thrived. The "super league" football games in our cities and villages attracted numerous fans. Ice and snow sports ignited people's passion for the winter season. Tradition is now embracing modernity, and the Chinese culture is shining in even greater splendor. We joined hands to build a better life and enjoyed it together. I attended celebrations in Xizang and Xinjiang. From the snow-covered plateau to both sides of the Tianshan Mountains, people of various ethnic groups are united as one, like seeds of a pomegranate sticking together. With white khatas and passionate singing and dancing, they expressed their love of the motherland and the happiness they enjoy. No issue of the people is too small; we care for every leaf and tend every branch in the garden of people's well-being. Over the past year, the rights and interests of the workforce in new forms of employment have been better protected, facilities have been upgraded to bring more convenience to the elderly, and each family with childcare needs has received a subsidy of RMB 300 yuan per month. When the happy hum of daily life fills every home, the big family of our nation will go from strength to strength. We continued to embrace the world with open arms. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin and the Global Leaders' Meeting on Women were very successful; and island-wide special customs operations were launched in the Hainan Free Trade Port. To better address climate change, China announced new Nationally Determined Contributions. After announcing the three global initiatives on development, security, and civilization, I put forward the Global Governance Initiative to promote a more just and equitable global governance system. The world today is undergoing both changes and turbulence, and some regions are still engulfed in war. China always stands on the right side of history, and is ready to work with all countries to advance world peace and development and build a community with a shared future for humanity. Not long ago, I attended the opening ceremony of the National Games, and I was glad to see Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao coming together in unity and acting in unison. We should unswervingly implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, and support Hong Kong and Macao in better integrating into the overall development of our country and maintaining long-term prosperity and stability. We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable! Only a strong Communist Party of China can make our country strong. We launched the study and education program on fully implementing the central Party leadership's eight-point decision on improving Party and government conduct. We exercised strict governance of the Party through credible measures, and promoted the Party's self-revolution to fight corruption and advance healthy governance. As a result, the conduct of our Party and government steadily improved. We must stay true to our original aspiration and founding mission, and pursue our goal with perseverance and dedication. We should continue to give a good answer to the question on how to maintain long-term governance put forth in a cave dwelling in Yan'an and prove ourselves worthy of the people's expectation in the new era. The year 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. A successful venture should start with a good plan and with clear goals set. We should focus on our goals and tasks, boost confidence, and build momentum to press ahead. We should take solid steps to promote high-quality development, further deepen reform and opening up across the board, deliver prosperity for all, and write a new chapter in the story of China's miracle. The dream lofty, the journey long-bold strides will get us there. Let us charge ahead like horses with courage, vitality, and energy, fight for our dreams and our happiness, and turn our great vision into beautiful realities. The sun of the new year will soon rise. May our great motherland stand in magnificence! May the fields across the country deliver good harvest! May our nation bathe in the glory of the morning! May you all enjoy life to the fullest, and achieve every success! May all your dreams come true!

President Xi’s New Year Address On New Year's Eve, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered his 2026 New Year message through China Media Group and the internet. The following is the full text of the message: Greetings to all! Year after year, life opens a fresh chapter. As the new year begins, I extend my best wishes to you from Beijing! The year 2025 marks the completion of China's 14th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development. Over the past five years, we have pressed ahead with enterprise and fortitude, and overcome many difficulties and challenges. We met the targets in the Plan and made solid advances on the new journey of Chinese modernization. Our economic output has crossed thresholds one after another, and it is expected to reach RMB 140 trillion yuan this year. Our economic strength, scientific and technological abilities, defense capabilities, and composite national strength all reached new heights. Clear waters and lush mountains have become a salient feature of our landscape. Our people enjoy a growing sense of gain, happiness and security. The past five years have been a truly remarkable journey, and our accomplishments have not come easily. Your unwavering hard work has made our nation thrive and prosper. I salute you all for your exceptional diligence and invaluable contributions. This year is full of indelible memories. We solemnly commemorated the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, and established the Taiwan Recovery Day. These grand national events were majestic and powerful, and the glory of victory will shine through the pages of history. They are inspiring all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation to remember history, honor fallen heroes, cherish peace, and create a better future. They are rallying a mighty force for the great rejuvenation of our nation. We sought to energize high-quality development through innovation. We integrated science and technology deeply with industries, and made a stream of new innovations. Many large AI models have been competing in a race to the top, and breakthroughs have been achieved in the research and development of our own chips. All this has turned China into one of the economies with the fastest growing innovation capabilities. The Tianwen-2 probe began its star-chasing journey to explore asteroids and comets. Construction of the hydropower project at the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started. China's first aircraft carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system was officially commissioned. Humanoid robots did kung fu kicks, and drones performed spectacular light shows. Inventions and innovations have boosted new quality productive forces and added colorful dimensions to our lives. We endeavored to nurture our spiritual home with cultural development. There was a surging public interest in cultural relics, museums, and intangible cultural heritage. A new Chinese cultural site was added to the World Heritage List. Cultural IPs such as Wukong and Nezha became global hits. The younger generation came to deem classic Chinese culture as the finest form of aesthetic expression. The cultural and tourism sectors thrived. The "super league" football games in our cities and villages attracted numerous fans. Ice and snow sports ignited people's passion for the winter season. Tradition is now embracing modernity, and the Chinese culture is shining in even greater splendor. We joined hands to build a better life and enjoyed it together. I attended celebrations in Xizang and Xinjiang. From the snow-covered plateau to both sides of the Tianshan Mountains, people of various ethnic groups are united as one, like seeds of a pomegranate sticking together. With white khatas and passionate singing and dancing, they expressed their love of the motherland and the happiness they enjoy. No issue of the people is too small; we care for every leaf and tend every branch in the garden of people's well-being. Over the past year, the rights and interests of the workforce in new forms of employment have been better protected, facilities have been upgraded to bring more convenience to the elderly, and each family with childcare needs has received a subsidy of RMB 300 yuan per month. When the happy hum of daily life fills every home, the big family of our nation will go from strength to strength. We continued to embrace the world with open arms. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin and the Global Leaders' Meeting on Women were very successful; and island-wide special customs operations were launched in the Hainan Free Trade Port. To better address climate change, China announced new Nationally Determined Contributions. After announcing the three global initiatives on development, security, and civilization, I put forward the Global Governance Initiative to promote a more just and equitable global governance system. The world today is undergoing both changes and turbulence, and some regions are still engulfed in war. China always stands on the right side of history, and is ready to work with all countries to advance world peace and development and build a community with a shared future for humanity. Not long ago, I attended the opening ceremony of the National Games, and I was glad to see Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao coming together in unity and acting in unison. We should unswervingly implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, and support Hong Kong and Macao in better integrating into the overall development of our country and maintaining long-term prosperity and stability. We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable! Only a strong Communist Party of China can make our country strong. We launched the study and education program on fully implementing the central Party leadership's eight-point decision on improving Party and government conduct. We exercised strict governance of the Party through credible measures, and promoted the Party's self-revolution to fight corruption and advance healthy governance. As a result, the conduct of our Party and government steadily improved. We must stay true to our original aspiration and founding mission, and pursue our goal with perseverance and dedication. We should continue to give a good answer to the question on how to maintain long-term governance put forth in a cave dwelling in Yan'an and prove ourselves worthy of the people's expectation in the new era. The year 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. A successful venture should start with a good plan and with clear goals set. We should focus on our goals and tasks, boost confidence, and build momentum to press ahead. We should take solid steps to promote high-quality development, further deepen reform and opening up across the board, deliver prosperity for all, and write a new chapter in the story of China's miracle. The dream lofty, the journey long-bold strides will get us there. Let us charge ahead like horses with courage, vitality, and energy, fight for our dreams and our happiness, and turn our great vision into beautiful realities. The sun of the new year will soon rise. May our great motherland stand in magnificence! May the fields across the country deliver good harvest! May our nation bathe in the glory of the morning! May you all enjoy life to the fullest, and achieve every success! May all your dreams come true!

China Perspective

27,604 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад