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"Prediction markets are exceptionally good at truth discovery. They crowdsource outcomes from individual, incentivized participants to get things right. But most stop right there, predicting the future, not helping to create it." Enter Predictive Allocation.

Aerodrome

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30,590 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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“In Predictive Allocation you are allocating capital to where you think markets need to exist next. Prediction markets are for bets on what you think is true, they create asymmetric upside but not the actual outcomes. What if you could do that, while bootstrapping new markets?”

“In Predictive Allocation you are allocating capital to where you think markets need to exist next. Prediction markets are for bets on what you think is true, they create asymmetric upside but not the actual outcomes. What if you could do that, while bootstrapping new markets?”

Aerodrome

25,823 views • 13 days ago

ELON MUSK:"I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. It's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. Whatever I think is most likely to ensure the good future, those are the actions I'll take"

ELON MUSK:"I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. It's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. Whatever I think is most likely to ensure the good future, those are the actions I'll take"

DogeDesigner

58,141 views • 3 months ago

What if you could get paid for g̶u̶e̶s̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ PREDICTING?? PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOW LIVE ON SUI! Get it right, Get it wrong, doesn't matter. GET PAID!

What if you could get paid for g̶u̶e̶s̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ PREDICTING?? PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOW LIVE ON SUI! Get it right, Get it wrong, doesn't matter. GET PAID!

DoubleUp

810,681 views • 4 months ago

Elon Musk: I don't always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. “I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. And so, obviously, sometimes I make mistakes in this regard. It's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. And so, whatever I think is most likely to ensure that the future is good for all of humanity, those are the actions that I will take.” Welt Interview, April 15, 2022

Elon Musk: I don't always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. “I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. And so, obviously, sometimes I make mistakes in this regard. It's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. And so, whatever I think is most likely to ensure that the future is good for all of humanity, those are the actions that I will take.” Welt Interview, April 15, 2022

ELON CLIPS

27,223 views • 10 months ago

Most media gets paid for attention. Prediction markets get paid for being right. That's why the future of information may look very different from the past. When real money is attached to predictions, truth becomes measurable, incentives align, and the crowd often outperforms the experts. The most interesting idea from the Kalshi Founder interview with MR SHIFT 🦁 "Prediction Markets aren't competing with finance. They're competing with media." The future may not be headlines. The future may be probabilities. Follow Kalshi & MR SHIFT 🦁

Most media gets paid for attention. Prediction markets get paid for being right. That's why the future of information may look very different from the past. When real money is attached to predictions, truth becomes measurable, incentives align, and the crowd often outperforms the experts. The most interesting idea from the Kalshi Founder interview with MR SHIFT 🦁 "Prediction Markets aren't competing with finance. They're competing with media." The future may not be headlines. The future may be probabilities. Follow Kalshi & MR SHIFT 🦁

Akash.eth🌊

16,330 views • 25 days ago

Trump: If you don't get away from this green scam your country is going to fail. I'm good at predicting things. They said during the campaign they had a hat. The best selling hat, trump was right about everything.

Trump: If you don't get away from this green scam your country is going to fail. I'm good at predicting things. They said during the campaign they had a hat. The best selling hat, trump was right about everything.

Acyn

265,949 views • 9 months ago

Keep prediction markets here in the U.S. Mike Selig on Milken Institute panel this morning: “We’ve seen the disinformation, the hoaxes, the fake news, and the ability of certain individuals to control gatekeepers and shape what the polls say right before an election. But prediction markets tend to get it right.” “Prediction markets are an important tool to have here in the United States, and I would have less confidence if the center of prediction markets were in China or Russia or somewhere else. The more we try to block these markets - we saw it with crypto - it just goes offshore.”

Keep prediction markets here in the U.S. Mike Selig on Milken Institute panel this morning: “We’ve seen the disinformation, the hoaxes, the fake news, and the ability of certain individuals to control gatekeepers and shape what the polls say right before an election. But prediction markets tend to get it right.” “Prediction markets are an important tool to have here in the United States, and I would have less confidence if the center of prediction markets were in China or Russia or somewhere else. The more we try to block these markets - we saw it with crypto - it just goes offshore.”

Coalition for Prediction Markets

55,698 views • 4 months ago

Prediction markets just got conversational. From politics to sports to culture, Virtuals Butler lets you access prediction markets directly from X, right on your feed. Introducing Prediction Markets on Butler.

Prediction markets just got conversational. From politics to sports to culture, Virtuals Butler lets you access prediction markets directly from X, right on your feed. Introducing Prediction Markets on Butler.

Virtuals Protocol

44,876 views • 6 months ago

Trump: If you don't get away from this green scam your country is going to fail. I'm good at predicting things. They said during the campaign they had a hat. The best selling hat, trump was right about everything.

Trump: If you don't get away from this green scam your country is going to fail. I'm good at predicting things. They said during the campaign they had a hat. The best selling hat, trump was right about everything.

unusual_whales

228,293 views • 9 months ago

🇺🇸ELON: I TRY TO TAKE ACTIONS THAT MAKE A GOOD FUTURE MORE LIKELY “I mean, I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. And so obviously sometimes I make mistakes in this regard, and so it's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right." Source: ELON CLIPS

🇺🇸ELON: I TRY TO TAKE ACTIONS THAT MAKE A GOOD FUTURE MORE LIKELY “I mean, I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. And so obviously sometimes I make mistakes in this regard, and so it's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right." Source: ELON CLIPS

Mario Nawfal

53,556 views • 11 months ago

POTUS: "If you don't get away from this green scam, your country is going to fail. I'm really good at predicting things, you know? They said during the campaign, they had the best selling hat: 'Trump was right about everything!' It's true. I've been right about...EVERYTHING." 😂 CLASSIC.

POTUS: "If you don't get away from this green scam, your country is going to fail. I'm really good at predicting things, you know? They said during the campaign, they had the best selling hat: 'Trump was right about everything!' It's true. I've been right about...EVERYTHING." 😂 CLASSIC.

Eric Daugherty

27,372 views • 9 months ago

There are a couple of things you need to get right if you want to be a good assistant to the artist… #KCD2

There are a couple of things you need to get right if you want to be a good assistant to the artist… #KCD2

Warhorse Studios

18,280 views • 1 year ago

Voting is one of the most important things we get to do as Americans, and it shouldn’t be controversial for the people who are exercising that right to prove who they say they are.

Voting is one of the most important things we get to do as Americans, and it shouldn’t be controversial for the people who are exercising that right to prove who they say they are.

Leader John Thune

57,414 views • 3 months ago

most prediction markets have been measuring the wrong thing. not wrong as in broken, wrong as in incomplete. they measure IF you were right. YES or NO. not HOW right you were. this problem has existed since 2015. and Trepa is trying to fix it. here's how. 🧵

most prediction markets have been measuring the wrong thing. not wrong as in broken, wrong as in incomplete. they measure IF you were right. YES or NO. not HOW right you were. this problem has existed since 2015. and Trepa is trying to fix it. here's how. 🧵

Läud.

15,485 views • 1 month ago

"the pace of scientific progress may be hindered by the tendency of our academic institutions to reward being popular, rather than being right" - Robin Hanson we couldn't agree more compound markets were just the beginning Hedgehog is helping us bring prediction markets to scientific research time to enter the trenches

"the pace of scientific progress may be hindered by the tendency of our academic institutions to reward being popular, rather than being right" - Robin Hanson we couldn't agree more compound markets were just the beginning Hedgehog is helping us bring prediction markets to scientific research time to enter the trenches

Pump Science

26,206 views • 1 year ago

The strongest objection to prediction markets is usually “death markets.” The fear: someone could bet against a politician finishing their term, assassinate them, and profit. Haseeb ＞|＜ argues this is all bullshit. “We already have disincentives to kill people, which are the murder laws. There were already financial incentives to kill people.” “Prediction markets have existed in America for literally centuries. There were not people just murdering presidents left and right.” “The right way to frame the issue is that it feels wrong for someone to make money when someone dies.”

The strongest objection to prediction markets is usually “death markets.” The fear: someone could bet against a politician finishing their term, assassinate them, and profit. Haseeb ＞|＜ argues this is all bullshit. “We already have disincentives to kill people, which are the murder laws. There were already financial incentives to kill people.” “Prediction markets have existed in America for literally centuries. There were not people just murdering presidents left and right.” “The right way to frame the issue is that it feels wrong for someone to make money when someone dies.”

MTS

12,764 views • 1 month ago

Prediction markets provide measurable value to market participants who use them to hedge and speculate on event outcomes as well as the public at large, which benefits from more reliable information about current events. The CFTC is committed to setting the gold standard for regulation of these markets. Watch more on PredictableShow:

Prediction markets provide measurable value to market participants who use them to hedge and speculate on event outcomes as well as the public at large, which benefits from more reliable information about current events. The CFTC is committed to setting the gold standard for regulation of these markets. Watch more on PredictableShow:

Mike Selig

46,976 views • 2 months ago

Insider trading is a feature of Polymarket. A Google employee making $1M+ on search trends is simply efficient price discovery. Platform does not ask if your advantage is fair. It only asks if you are right But this logic leads to a dark place: Assassination Markets. If a market allows bets on a death, it creates a direct financial incentive to... resolve the market When millions are on the line, the platform stops being a passive mirror of the future and becomes an engine for shaping it Are Prediction Markets the most honest and cynical technology of our time?

Insider trading is a feature of Polymarket. A Google employee making $1M+ on search trends is simply efficient price discovery. Platform does not ask if your advantage is fair. It only asks if you are right But this logic leads to a dark place: Assassination Markets. If a market allows bets on a death, it creates a direct financial incentive to... resolve the market When millions are on the line, the platform stops being a passive mirror of the future and becomes an engine for shaping it Are Prediction Markets the most honest and cynical technology of our time?

Lirratø

212,694 views • 6 months ago

🚀 Introducing Polyswipe Prediction markets are powerful but messy. We’ve engineered a simple way to trade them: 👉 Swipe right for conviction 👈 Swipe left for doubt Prediction markets, simplified. CA: BuWe9Wd5XqCUUV1xZMtcpCPg7iqdYoyC8dBdSbEUpump

🚀 Introducing Polyswipe Prediction markets are powerful but messy. We’ve engineered a simple way to trade them: 👉 Swipe right for conviction 👈 Swipe left for doubt Prediction markets, simplified. CA: BuWe9Wd5XqCUUV1xZMtcpCPg7iqdYoyC8dBdSbEUpump

polyswipe

69,954 views • 9 months ago

Mikel Arteta on strength from set-pieces: “At the end, it’s who are the actors & what role they have to execute — that’s the most important thing. You need to pick the right actor for the right line for the right context. When you do that, good things happen.” 🎥 Men in Blazers

Mikel Arteta on strength from set-pieces: “At the end, it’s who are the actors & what role they have to execute — that’s the most important thing. You need to pick the right actor for the right line for the right context. When you do that, good things happen.” 🎥 Men in Blazers

afcstuff

77,177 views • 10 months ago