Video yükleniyor...

Video Yüklenemedi

Ana Sayfaya Dön

"Prediction markets are exceptionally good at truth discovery. They crowdsource outcomes from individual, incentivized participants to get things right. But most stop right there, predicting the future, not helping to create it." Enter Predictive Allocation.

AerodromeFi's profile picture

Aerodrome

131,916 subscribers

30,944 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

LIVE

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

0 Yorum

Yorum bulunmuyor

Orijinal gönderinin yorumları burada görünecek

Benzer Videolar

“In Predictive Allocation you are allocating capital to where you think markets need to exist next. Prediction markets are for bets on what you think is true, they create asymmetric upside but not the actual outcomes. What if you could do that, while bootstrapping new markets?”
5:07

“In Predictive Allocation you are allocating capital to where you think markets need to exist next. Prediction markets are for bets on what you think is true, they create asymmetric upside but not the actual outcomes. What if you could do that, while bootstrapping new markets?”

Aerodrome

26,482 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

“Predictive Allocation brings the truth discovery and asymmetric upside of prediction markets to spot markets. You won’t need to bet on an outcome or be exposed to a direction, you can simply bet on a market and on the demand for it… Unlocking something entirely new onchain.”
1:27

“Predictive Allocation brings the truth discovery and asymmetric upside of prediction markets to spot markets. You won’t need to bet on an outcome or be exposed to a direction, you can simply bet on a market and on the demand for it… Unlocking something entirely new onchain.”

Aero

14,914 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce

ELON MUSK:"I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. It's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. Whatever I think is most likely to ensure the good future, those are the actions I'll take"
0:35

ELON MUSK:"I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. It's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. Whatever I think is most likely to ensure the good future, those are the actions I'll take"

DogeDesigner

61,427 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Elon Musk: I don't always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. “I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. And so, obviously, sometimes I make mistakes in this regard. It's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. And so, whatever I think is most likely to ensure that the future is good for all of humanity, those are the actions that I will take.” Welt Interview, April 15, 2022
0:35

Elon Musk: I don't always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. “I try to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. And so, obviously, sometimes I make mistakes in this regard. It's not like I always get it right, but I aspire to get it right. And so, whatever I think is most likely to ensure that the future is good for all of humanity, those are the actions that I will take.” Welt Interview, April 15, 2022

ELON CLIPS

27,223 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Most media gets paid for attention. Prediction markets get paid for being right. That's why the future of information may look very different from the past. When real money is attached to predictions, truth becomes measurable, incentives align, and the crowd often outperforms the experts. The most interesting idea from the Kalshi Founder interview with MR SHIFT 🦁 "Prediction Markets aren't competing with finance. They're competing with media." The future may not be headlines. The future may be probabilities. Follow Kalshi & MR SHIFT 🦁
1:12

Most media gets paid for attention. Prediction markets get paid for being right. That's why the future of information may look very different from the past. When real money is attached to predictions, truth becomes measurable, incentives align, and the crowd often outperforms the experts. The most interesting idea from the Kalshi Founder interview with MR SHIFT 🦁 "Prediction Markets aren't competing with finance. They're competing with media." The future may not be headlines. The future may be probabilities. Follow Kalshi & MR SHIFT 🦁

Akash.eth🌊

16,330 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Trump: If you don't get away from this green scam your country is going to fail. I'm good at predicting things. They said during the campaign they had a hat. The best selling hat, trump was right about everything.
0:38

Trump: If you don't get away from this green scam your country is going to fail. I'm good at predicting things. They said during the campaign they had a hat. The best selling hat, trump was right about everything.

unusual_whales

228,293 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Keep prediction markets here in the U.S. Mike Selig on Milken Institute panel this morning: “We’ve seen the disinformation, the hoaxes, the fake news, and the ability of certain individuals to control gatekeepers and shape what the polls say right before an election. But prediction markets tend to get it right.” “Prediction markets are an important tool to have here in the United States, and I would have less confidence if the center of prediction markets were in China or Russia or somewhere else. The more we try to block these markets - we saw it with crypto - it just goes offshore.”
0:34

Keep prediction markets here in the U.S. Mike Selig on Milken Institute panel this morning: “We’ve seen the disinformation, the hoaxes, the fake news, and the ability of certain individuals to control gatekeepers and shape what the polls say right before an election. But prediction markets tend to get it right.” “Prediction markets are an important tool to have here in the United States, and I would have less confidence if the center of prediction markets were in China or Russia or somewhere else. The more we try to block these markets - we saw it with crypto - it just goes offshore.”

Coalition for Prediction Markets

55,713 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Elon Musk has been right about the future far more often than most people are even willing to admit This has been proven at scale many times “I’m very good at predicting the future. I’m not perfect, but my batting average is very high for a human” Sometimes the timing may be slightly off, but the direction has repeatedly proven to be correct There are major companies and even major economies that did not listen to Elon and faced serious consequences Many have lost billions just to satisfy their egos and prove Elon wrong
1:08

Elon Musk has been right about the future far more often than most people are even willing to admit This has been proven at scale many times “I’m very good at predicting the future. I’m not perfect, but my batting average is very high for a human” Sometimes the timing may be slightly off, but the direction has repeatedly proven to be correct There are major companies and even major economies that did not listen to Elon and faced serious consequences Many have lost billions just to satisfy their egos and prove Elon wrong

X Freeze

62,511 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

There are a couple of things you need to get right if you want to be a good assistant to the artist… #KCD2
1:37

There are a couple of things you need to get right if you want to be a good assistant to the artist… #KCD2

Warhorse Studios

18,328 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Voting is one of the most important things we get to do as Americans, and it shouldn’t be controversial for the people who are exercising that right to prove who they say they are.
0:53

Voting is one of the most important things we get to do as Americans, and it shouldn’t be controversial for the people who are exercising that right to prove who they say they are.

Leader John Thune

57,547 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

most prediction markets have been measuring the wrong thing. not wrong as in broken, wrong as in incomplete. they measure IF you were right. YES or NO. not HOW right you were. this problem has existed since 2015. and Trepa is trying to fix it. here's how. 🧵
1:30

most prediction markets have been measuring the wrong thing. not wrong as in broken, wrong as in incomplete. they measure IF you were right. YES or NO. not HOW right you were. this problem has existed since 2015. and Trepa is trying to fix it. here's how. 🧵

Läud.

15,581 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Robinhood is the app that has onboarded millions of people to financial assets. Vlad Tenev said it himself. They believe, Prediction Markets, are at the start of a Supercycle. I truly believe, and have been saying myself for quite some time, this is not a 'fad' or a 'meta' Prediction Markets, are the future.
0:24

Robinhood is the app that has onboarded millions of people to financial assets. Vlad Tenev said it himself. They believe, Prediction Markets, are at the start of a Supercycle. I truly believe, and have been saying myself for quite some time, this is not a 'fad' or a 'meta' Prediction Markets, are the future.

Easy

18,606 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

The strongest objection to prediction markets is usually “death markets.” The fear: someone could bet against a politician finishing their term, assassinate them, and profit. Haseeb ＞|＜ argues this is all bullshit. “We already have disincentives to kill people, which are the murder laws. There were already financial incentives to kill people.” “Prediction markets have existed in America for literally centuries. There were not people just murdering presidents left and right.” “The right way to frame the issue is that it feels wrong for someone to make money when someone dies.”
4:48

The strongest objection to prediction markets is usually “death markets.” The fear: someone could bet against a politician finishing their term, assassinate them, and profit. Haseeb ＞|＜ argues this is all bullshit. “We already have disincentives to kill people, which are the murder laws. There were already financial incentives to kill people.” “Prediction markets have existed in America for literally centuries. There were not people just murdering presidents left and right.” “The right way to frame the issue is that it feels wrong for someone to make money when someone dies.”

MTS

12,764 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Insider trading is a feature of Polymarket. A Google employee making $1M+ on search trends is simply efficient price discovery. Platform does not ask if your advantage is fair. It only asks if you are right But this logic leads to a dark place: Assassination Markets. If a market allows bets on a death, it creates a direct financial incentive to... resolve the market When millions are on the line, the platform stops being a passive mirror of the future and becomes an engine for shaping it Are Prediction Markets the most honest and cynical technology of our time?
0:49

Insider trading is a feature of Polymarket. A Google employee making $1M+ on search trends is simply efficient price discovery. Platform does not ask if your advantage is fair. It only asks if you are right But this logic leads to a dark place: Assassination Markets. If a market allows bets on a death, it creates a direct financial incentive to... resolve the market When millions are on the line, the platform stops being a passive mirror of the future and becomes an engine for shaping it Are Prediction Markets the most honest and cynical technology of our time?

Lirratø

212,694 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Jared Kushner on Ukraine: The difference between somebody saying the right thing and then doing the right thing is that those are two different things. But if they’re not saying the right thing — that they want to get to that — then you have no chance of getting to the actual right thing. At least for now, the Russians are saying the right thing, which is that they want to discuss a way to resolve this.
0:31

Jared Kushner on Ukraine: The difference between somebody saying the right thing and then doing the right thing is that those are two different things. But if they’re not saying the right thing — that they want to get to that — then you have no chance of getting to the actual right thing. At least for now, the Russians are saying the right thing, which is that they want to discuss a way to resolve this.

Clash Report

24,730 görüntüleme • 13 gün önce