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Presenting KP’s One-Year Performance (2024-25), starting with the financial management domain—the backbone of governance. Despite law & order demands and clearing past liabilities, KP achieved more with the same resources through efficiency, transparency & fiscal discipline. PTI's 3rd Government in KP (Gandapur Cabinet) Last 1 Year Performance (March 24...

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Ali Amin Khan Gandapur

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29,100 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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Ali Hassan ISF's profile picture
Ali Hassan ISF1 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Bro you were elected to release @ImranKhanPTI. Nodoby cared your performance.

$idd oo7's profile picture
$idd oo71 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Tum pr bohat aitmaad or fakhar tha lakin afsos tm b choro k sath mil gy, Mr ali amin

EnKiddi's profile picture
EnKiddi1 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Trying to NORMALISE khan behind bars! We will NEVER FORGIVE YOU!

Kurtis Hanni's profile picture
Kurtis Hanni1 year ago

This last year+ has been a dream. I meet with business owners daily to look for financial solutions. We help them: 1. Optimize their cash flow 2. Create more profit 3. Pay less taxes But more than anything, we’re a strategic partner and coach. Someone they turn to when they don’t know the answer. When the times get tough. I’ve had more than one business owner tell me they’re sleeping better, more present when with family, and feel like they’re finally in control of their business (instead of it controlling them). I can’t imagine anything more rewarding. For people watching from the sidelines, it seems like an overnight success. But in reality, it came after a 15+ year career of day-in and day-out partnering with my CEOs as a full-time CFO. Now instead of building one business at a time, I get to help many at the same time! Today, I’m headed to meet with a group of other business owners to learn and grow together. I am truly living the dream!

Muhammad Asim's profile picture
Muhammad Asim1 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Good step

Tabi Shah's profile picture
Tabi Shah1 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP علی امین صاحب، ہم دعا کرتے ہیں کہ جب تک خان صاحب واپس آئیں۔۔ تب تک اللہ آپکو خان صاحب کے وثن کے حساب سے کام کرنے کی توفیق دے۔ آمین

saeed Nomana's profile picture
saeed Nomana1 year ago

@PTIofficial @ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Sir ap kam tha imran khan jali sa nikla but i think you are so busy 🤨 lagta hai ab yeh kam awam ko larna phara gy👏#FreeImranKhan

Aftab Siddique's profile picture
Aftab Siddique1 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Weldon sir, but nation voted to get Imran Khan out of illegal imprisonment. Any report on that?

Imran khan's profile picture
Imran khan1 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Arresting pokhtoon jarga leaders.

Tajman Waziri's profile picture
Tajman Waziri1 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Please stop false charges against Malik Naseer and Haji Abdul Samad. #ReleasePashtunLeaders #ReleasePTMActivists

umer's profile picture
umer1 year ago

@ImranKhanPTI @GovernmentKP Tout amin ganda pur

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$NOW's Financial Analyst Day took place yesterday. A huge focus was on the headline $30 B+ subscription revenue target for 2030, but there is also a margin expansion story as well that management highlighted. The market fears AI inference costs will compress software gross margins. Management focused on dismantling this narrative. AI reasoning represents less than 10% of their cost to serve. The other ~90% is workflow orchestration, governance, and their 20-year CMDB context. They are maintaining 80%+ subscription gross margins while pulling $300 M in annualized agentic AI cost savings straight to their own bottom line for 2026. That self-funded internal efficiency gives them the exact cover needed to commit to 100 basis points of non-GAAP operating and free cash flow margin expansion in 2027. The debate over seat compression versus consumption is looking promising for NOW. ServiceNow has shifted to a hybrid model. Non-seat based pricing already accounts for 50% of their net new ACV. When a customer uses AI to cut a 20 person support team down to five, ServiceNow captures 6.5x more in AI agent consumption. The total spend from that customer actually grows over 5x by year five. This underlying consumption momentum is exactly why management aggressively raised their 2026 AI ACV target from $1 B to $1.5B. They expect AI to drive 30% of total ACV by 2030. They are backing this up with a new go-to-market execution strategy, guaranteeing total satisfaction for AI go-lives in under 100 days. Management is also trying to be more disciplined with capital allocation. They are tackling dilution. They hit their sub-15% stock-based compensation target early in 2025 and just established a hard target of sub-10% by 2029. They doubled their share repurchases with a $2 B accelerated share repurchase in Q1 2026 alone. This move makes them dilution net-neutral for the entirety of 2026. They still have $4.2B in authorization ready. Recent tuck-in acquisitions like Moveworks, Vza, and Armis were heavily scrutinized as buying top-line growth. Management confirmed zero revenue from these hit the last report. They bought them strictly to build out the AI Control Tower and push their TAM to an aggressive $600 B. Overall, the day provided a little more clarity and I appreciated it. Looking more interesting to me. In the clip, Gina addressed seat compression and the margin expansion story.
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$NOW's Financial Analyst Day took place yesterday. A huge focus was on the headline $30 B+ subscription revenue target for 2030, but there is also a margin expansion story as well that management highlighted. The market fears AI inference costs will compress software gross margins. Management focused on dismantling this narrative. AI reasoning represents less than 10% of their cost to serve. The other ~90% is workflow orchestration, governance, and their 20-year CMDB context. They are maintaining 80%+ subscription gross margins while pulling $300 M in annualized agentic AI cost savings straight to their own bottom line for 2026. That self-funded internal efficiency gives them the exact cover needed to commit to 100 basis points of non-GAAP operating and free cash flow margin expansion in 2027. The debate over seat compression versus consumption is looking promising for NOW. ServiceNow has shifted to a hybrid model. Non-seat based pricing already accounts for 50% of their net new ACV. When a customer uses AI to cut a 20 person support team down to five, ServiceNow captures 6.5x more in AI agent consumption. The total spend from that customer actually grows over 5x by year five. This underlying consumption momentum is exactly why management aggressively raised their 2026 AI ACV target from $1 B to $1.5B. They expect AI to drive 30% of total ACV by 2030. They are backing this up with a new go-to-market execution strategy, guaranteeing total satisfaction for AI go-lives in under 100 days. Management is also trying to be more disciplined with capital allocation. They are tackling dilution. They hit their sub-15% stock-based compensation target early in 2025 and just established a hard target of sub-10% by 2029. They doubled their share repurchases with a $2 B accelerated share repurchase in Q1 2026 alone. This move makes them dilution net-neutral for the entirety of 2026. They still have $4.2B in authorization ready. Recent tuck-in acquisitions like Moveworks, Vza, and Armis were heavily scrutinized as buying top-line growth. Management confirmed zero revenue from these hit the last report. They bought them strictly to build out the AI Control Tower and push their TAM to an aggressive $600 B. Overall, the day provided a little more clarity and I appreciated it. Looking more interesting to me. In the clip, Gina addressed seat compression and the margin expansion story.

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David Eby David Eby Permanently Diverted Hundreds of Millions in Casino Profits Away from British Columbians Until 2045​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ In 2019, while David Eby served as Attorney General and held responsibility for gaming, the provincial government under the NDP created a permanent statutory diversion of seven percent of the BC Lottery Corporation’s net income away from the consolidated revenue fund that finances health care, education, infrastructure and other services available to the general population of British Columbia. This diversion was first announced in the February 2019 provincial budget, formalized through an interim agreement signed on August 2, 2019 that transferred an immediate lump-sum payment of 194.84 million dollars covering the 2019/20 and 2020/21 fiscal years, locked into law by Bill 36, the Gaming Control Amendment Act introduced by Eby and given Royal Assent on October 31, 2019, and then extended through a long-term agreement signed on September 16, 2020 by the Province of British Columbia, the BC First Nations Gaming Revenue Sharing Limited Partnership, the First Nations Summit, the British Columbia Assembly of First Nations and the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs. The long-term agreement runs until March 31, 2045, creating an obligation that continues for roughly twenty-five years from the start of the arrangement and cannot be altered without legislative change and mutual agreement among the parties. Under the legislation and the agreement, the BC Lottery Corporation is required each year to pay, through the government, seven percent of its actual net income to the First Nations-controlled limited partnership. Recent figures show that in the 2024/25 fiscal year this amounted to 97.6 million dollars. Cumulative transfers under the long-term arrangement have already reached 628 million dollars as of mid-2026 reporting. Projected totals over the full term stand at approximately three billion dollars. These sums are removed annually from the provincial revenues that would otherwise support services for all residents and are instead directed into a separate vehicle controlled by participating First Nations, distributed according to a formula of fifty percent equal base shares, forty percent by population and ten percent for remote communities. The funds are restricted to categories such as health, housing, economic development, education, culture and governance, with no mechanism for individual per-capita payments, yet the ultimate allocation decisions rest with the partnership and the recipient communities rather than the provincial government. The effect is a fixed, multi-decade claim on gaming profits that operates independently of the province’s overall fiscal position, budget deficits or competing demands for public spending. Because the entitlement is embedded in statute, reversing or reducing it would require new legislation and the consent of the signatory First Nations organizations, creating a structural barrier to any future adjustment. The scale of the diversion, roughly one hundred million dollars in a typical year, represents a permanent reduction in the resources available for general provincial programs at a time when the government has faced rising deficits and increasing debt.

Vote Canada

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$GRAB Map is The New Google Maps(B2B)🧵 Here is your Free.99 analysis on GrabMap, for those that selling courses for $50-$500/m, if you are using my $GRAB and other analyses, I don't ask for much, at least give me some credit/cite. And yes 99.999% of my posts are Free.99. If you want to support my work, slap the like/repost, as I don't choose to write "Grab or any Ticker is going to x10 x100-x1000" kind of threads or "mark my words" to please the X Algo. Consider Subscribe($0.33/day) if you want to support my work further and get more in-depth analyses! TLDR: GrabMap could generate $7B-$15B a year alone for Grab B2B segment. That is why you are seeing Anthony Tan is mad excited abt this massive opportunity. And it also significantly boost GrabAds long term globally. This precisely proved my point that, Anthony is going to expand to 5B people and we are only 14% thesis realized right now. Grab doesn't have to be just Ride-share/Delivery when expanding! 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The foodservice market alone is projected to grow from $223.8 billion in 2025 to $416.3 billion by 2030, indicating a robust demand for services that enhance operational efficiencies. Businesses in logistics, e-commerce, and urban planning could benefit from GrabMaps' precise mapping and navigation capabilities, potentially generating revenue through licensing fees, subscription models, and advertising. ~Grab's existing user base of over 46 million monthly transacting users provides a strong foundation for cross-selling B2B solutions, thereby increasing revenue without significant additional marketing costs. B. Competitive Advantage of a Future $500B MC AI SuperApp over Google Map Google Maps, while dominant, may not be as finely tuned for SEA's unique challenges. GrabMaps' hyper-local data and AI-driven enhancements offer a competitive edge, attracting businesses that require accurate and cost-effective mapping solutions. Revenue from B2B services could include: Licensing Fees: Enterprises can license GrabMaps' APIs and SDKs to integrate mapping functionalities into their operations. Subscription Models: Continuous updates and premium features could be offered on a subscription basis. Advertising Revenue: GrabAds, which leverages mapping data, could generate additional income through targeted advertising. C. Global Expansion is Inevitable ~The partnership with Tino in Mongolia is a strategic move to scale GrabMaps internationally. This marks Grab's first major mapping partnership outside SEA, indicating potential for revenue growth in other regions where Google Maps' dominance is less entrenched or where local data needs are acute. ~The use of IoT devices like KartaCam2 and KartaDashCam for real-time data collection could further enhance GrabMaps' value proposition, potentially increasing revenue through premium service offerings in new markets. D. 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$GRAB Map is The New Google Maps(B2B)🧵 Here is your Free.99 analysis on GrabMap, for those that selling courses for $50-$500/m, if you are using my $GRAB and other analyses, I don't ask for much, at least give me some credit/cite. And yes 99.999% of my posts are Free.99. If you want to support my work, slap the like/repost, as I don't choose to write "Grab or any Ticker is going to x10 x100-x1000" kind of threads or "mark my words" to please the X Algo. Consider Subscribe($0.33/day) if you want to support my work further and get more in-depth analyses! TLDR: GrabMap could generate $7B-$15B a year alone for Grab B2B segment. That is why you are seeing Anthony Tan is mad excited abt this massive opportunity. And it also significantly boost GrabAds long term globally. This precisely proved my point that, Anthony is going to expand to 5B people and we are only 14% thesis realized right now. Grab doesn't have to be just Ride-share/Delivery when expanding! Grab , Southeast Asia's leading AI SuperApp for ride-hailing, food delivery, financial services,Tourism, Dine-Out and more, has developed its proprietary mapping platform, GrabMaps, a massive B2B revenue potential over the next long term, not just in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar but expanding beyond SEA markets/Customers. 1. GrabMaps: A Strategic Asset GrabMaps is not merely a technological tool but a critical component of Grab's ecosystem, powering its ride-hailing, food delivery, and financial services. Developed in-house, GrabMaps leverages data collected from Grab's vast network of driver-partners across eight SEA countries. This data-driven approach ensures hyper-local customization, addressing the unique challenges of SEA's urban environments, such as narrow alleys, informal roads, and rapid infrastructure changes. The recent announcement of KartaCam2, an upgraded street-level imaging device, marks a significant technological advancement. KartaCam2 enhances data collection by providing higher quality images and more precise location data, which are crucial for maintaining the accuracy and freshness of maps. This breakthrough is part of Grab's broader 2025 AI push, including integrations with OpenAI 's GPT-4o for vision-based mapping and the establishment of an AI Centre of Excellence. These innovations position GrabMaps as a formidable competitor to Google Maps, especially in regions where localized data is paramount. 2. Revenue implications long term The expansion of GrabMaps into B2B services opens up new revenue streams, which could significantly impact Grab's financial performance over the long term. But GrabMap is a brandnew B2B product, and GoogleMap generates around $13-$20B globally. A. Market Opportunity in Southeast Asia ~The SEA market presents a substantial opportunity for GrabMaps. The foodservice market alone is projected to grow from $223.8 billion in 2025 to $416.3 billion by 2030, indicating a robust demand for services that enhance operational efficiencies. Businesses in logistics, e-commerce, and urban planning could benefit from GrabMaps' precise mapping and navigation capabilities, potentially generating revenue through licensing fees, subscription models, and advertising. ~Grab's existing user base of over 46 million monthly transacting users provides a strong foundation for cross-selling B2B solutions, thereby increasing revenue without significant additional marketing costs. B. Competitive Advantage of a Future $500B MC AI SuperApp over Google Map Google Maps, while dominant, may not be as finely tuned for SEA's unique challenges. GrabMaps' hyper-local data and AI-driven enhancements offer a competitive edge, attracting businesses that require accurate and cost-effective mapping solutions. Revenue from B2B services could include: Licensing Fees: Enterprises can license GrabMaps' APIs and SDKs to integrate mapping functionalities into their operations. Subscription Models: Continuous updates and premium features could be offered on a subscription basis. Advertising Revenue: GrabAds, which leverages mapping data, could generate additional income through targeted advertising. C. Global Expansion is Inevitable ~The partnership with Tino in Mongolia is a strategic move to scale GrabMaps internationally. This marks Grab's first major mapping partnership outside SEA, indicating potential for revenue growth in other regions where Google Maps' dominance is less entrenched or where local data needs are acute. ~The use of IoT devices like KartaCam2 and KartaDashCam for real-time data collection could further enhance GrabMaps' value proposition, potentially increasing revenue through premium service offerings in new markets. D. Synergies w/ other businesses Grab's ecosystem approach allows for synergies between GrabMaps and other services like GrabPay, GrabFood, and GrabTransport. For example, businesses using GrabMaps for logistics could also adopt GrabPay for transactions, creating a revenue multiplier effect. 3. Google Map Revenue in Asia ~Total Revenue in Asia-Pacific (2018): Google APAC, based in Singapore, reported $20.24 billion out of the total $21.37 billion revenue in the Asia-Pacific region. This indicates that a significant portion of Google's revenue in Asia is attributed to Singapore, likely due to its role as a hub for Google’s operations. ~Advertising Revenue: In 2018, Google APAC generated $15.8 billion from advertising alone, compared to $4.4 billion from other activities like Google Play. Advertising on Google properties, including Google Maps, is a major revenue driver. ~Market Share in Search Marketing: Google Maps holds a 62.34% market share in the search marketing category, competing with tools like Wix (26.54%) and Google Ads (4.14%). This dominance suggests that a considerable portion of Google’s advertising revenue in Asia is linked to mapping services. For the full fiscal year 2024, Alphabet (Google's parent company) generated $56.82 billion in revenue from the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This represented approximately 16.24% of the company's total revenue for the year. If we take a conservative estimate at 25% of $56.82B of Google's total advertising revenue in Asia is related to mapping services= $14.2B. => If GrabMaps secures even 50% of this market share in SEA, it could generate around $7B annually from this segment alone. GrabMap is 4x lower error rate, 10x lower latency, 75% fewer mapping mistakes, and much cheaper than GoogleMap. With OpenAI GPT-4o fine-tuning, GrabMaps hit 80% accuracy for speed limits and lanes13-20% above prior levels excelling in occlusions ( rainy monsoons) where Google relies more on satellite data. Now do you understand why Google and HSBC are clapping $GRAB on search and downgrade? Yes, because GrabMap is a massive threat and Grab Anthony Tan refused to buy $goto since 2020. Conclusion: Grab's expansion of GrabMaps into B2B services represents a strategic move to challenge Google Maps' dominance in Asia, particularly in SEA and future expansion. The revenue implications are substantial, with potential gains from licensing fees, subscription models, advertising, and international expansions. While Google Maps generates billions in revenue, primarily through advertising, GrabMaps' localized and AI-enhanced approach could carve out a significant niche, especially in regions where precise, real-time mapping data is critical. The success of this strategy will depend on Grab's ability to scale internationally, maintain technological superiority, and effectively monetize its B2B offerings. However, the opportunity is clear, and Grab's ecosystem approach positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced mapping solutions in a rapidly digitalizing world. This move not only enhances Grab's revenue potential but also solidifies its role as a key player in the global tech landscape. Not Financial Advice! Source: Grab Dot Com.

Mike

120,532 views • 9 months ago

Wall Street is WRONG about Oracle. $ORCL is being pitched as the "fourth hyperscaler." The AI infrastructure play of a lifetime. 35 out of 46 analysts have a buy rating. Consensus price target is $246. The stock is at $172. Down 47% from its September high. Now let me explain what the bulls aren't telling you and why this will end HORRIBLY: Oracle's non-current debt has ballooned to $124.7 billion. Up from $85.3 billion a year ago. A 46% increase in 12 months. Total liabilities sit at $206 billion against shareholders' equity of $39 billion. That's a 5-to-1 leverage ratio on a company being pitched as a "safe" infrastructure play. But that $124.7 billion isn't even the full picture... Oracle has been using project financing structures (loans repaid from projected future cashflow) to keep tens of billions more in borrowing off its balance sheet entirely. So when analysts quote Oracle's debt load, they're UNDERSTATING the actual exposure by a meaningful margin. Interest expense jumped 32% YOY. Free cash flow is negative $24.7 billion on a trailing basis. The company is spending $48 billion a year in capex while generating roughly $17 billion in operating cash flow. They issued $43 billion in senior notes in 9 months. They are borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous. And what did they get for all that spending? They fired 30,000 people. On March 31st, Oracle sent an email at 6 AM to tens of thousands of employees telling them their roles were eliminated. 18% of the global workforce gone in a single morning. TD Cowen estimates the layoffs save $8 to $10 billion in annual cash flow. Which tells you everything about the math: Oracle can't fund $50 billion in AI capex AND keep 162,000 people on payroll. So the people went. Net income was up 95% last quarter. The stock is still down 47% from its high. Mr. Market is telling you something. The earnings look great on paper partly because Oracle extended the useful life of its servers to 6 years, reducing depreciation expense by billions. I've been flagging this accounting game across the hyperscalers for months. It flatters the income statement while the balance sheet quietly deteriorates. Now let's talk about the $553 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations that every bull cites as the "reason" to own this stock: Roughly $300 billion of that is a SINGLE contract with OpenAI through the Stargate project. Revenue doesn't start flowing until 2027. And OpenAI itself expects to lose over $167 billion through 2028 even if it hits $100 billion in annual revenue. So Oracle is borrowing $125+ billion to build data centers for a customer that cannot even fund its own operations. And the data centers themselves are significantly behind schedule: The flagship Stargate campus in Abilene has been under construction since mid-2024. 2 years later, only 2 of 8 planned buildings are operational, covering about 200 megawatts of the planned 1.2 gigawatts. The remaining Stargate sites across Wisconsin, New Mexico, Michigan, and other locations are in the earliest stages of development. The total estimated cost to build out Oracle's 7 gigawatts of planned Stargate capacity runs around $340 billion. And lenders are already getting nervous. The Wall Street Journal reported that additional capacity at Abilene originally earmarked for OpenAI ended up going to Microsoft instead - because the banks financing the build were uncomfortable with their credit exposure to OpenAI as the ultimate customer. When your LENDERS don't trust your tenant's ability to pay, then there's SERIOUS issue. And by the time those data centers are fully built, the GPUs inside them will already be approaching obsolescence anyway. Nvidia releases new architectures annually. Each generation delivers dramatically more compute per watt. The hardware goes obsolete in 3 years but the debt used to buy it gets repaid over a much longer horizon. The AI infrastructure buildout is a treadmill, not a revolution. Oracle is the purest expression of that thesis. - $206 billion in reported liabilities. - Billions more hidden off-balance-sheet. - Negative $25 billion in free cash flow. - 30,000 people fired to fund the capex. - A single unprofitable customer behind over half the backlog. - Data centers years behind schedule. And 35 analysts saying buy. This doesn't sound right, does it?
1:22

Wall Street is WRONG about Oracle. $ORCL is being pitched as the "fourth hyperscaler." The AI infrastructure play of a lifetime. 35 out of 46 analysts have a buy rating. Consensus price target is $246. The stock is at $172. Down 47% from its September high. Now let me explain what the bulls aren't telling you and why this will end HORRIBLY: Oracle's non-current debt has ballooned to $124.7 billion. Up from $85.3 billion a year ago. A 46% increase in 12 months. Total liabilities sit at $206 billion against shareholders' equity of $39 billion. That's a 5-to-1 leverage ratio on a company being pitched as a "safe" infrastructure play. But that $124.7 billion isn't even the full picture... Oracle has been using project financing structures (loans repaid from projected future cashflow) to keep tens of billions more in borrowing off its balance sheet entirely. So when analysts quote Oracle's debt load, they're UNDERSTATING the actual exposure by a meaningful margin. Interest expense jumped 32% YOY. Free cash flow is negative $24.7 billion on a trailing basis. The company is spending $48 billion a year in capex while generating roughly $17 billion in operating cash flow. They issued $43 billion in senior notes in 9 months. They are borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous. And what did they get for all that spending? They fired 30,000 people. On March 31st, Oracle sent an email at 6 AM to tens of thousands of employees telling them their roles were eliminated. 18% of the global workforce gone in a single morning. TD Cowen estimates the layoffs save $8 to $10 billion in annual cash flow. Which tells you everything about the math: Oracle can't fund $50 billion in AI capex AND keep 162,000 people on payroll. So the people went. Net income was up 95% last quarter. The stock is still down 47% from its high. Mr. Market is telling you something. The earnings look great on paper partly because Oracle extended the useful life of its servers to 6 years, reducing depreciation expense by billions. I've been flagging this accounting game across the hyperscalers for months. It flatters the income statement while the balance sheet quietly deteriorates. Now let's talk about the $553 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations that every bull cites as the "reason" to own this stock: Roughly $300 billion of that is a SINGLE contract with OpenAI through the Stargate project. Revenue doesn't start flowing until 2027. And OpenAI itself expects to lose over $167 billion through 2028 even if it hits $100 billion in annual revenue. So Oracle is borrowing $125+ billion to build data centers for a customer that cannot even fund its own operations. And the data centers themselves are significantly behind schedule: The flagship Stargate campus in Abilene has been under construction since mid-2024. 2 years later, only 2 of 8 planned buildings are operational, covering about 200 megawatts of the planned 1.2 gigawatts. The remaining Stargate sites across Wisconsin, New Mexico, Michigan, and other locations are in the earliest stages of development. The total estimated cost to build out Oracle's 7 gigawatts of planned Stargate capacity runs around $340 billion. And lenders are already getting nervous. The Wall Street Journal reported that additional capacity at Abilene originally earmarked for OpenAI ended up going to Microsoft instead - because the banks financing the build were uncomfortable with their credit exposure to OpenAI as the ultimate customer. When your LENDERS don't trust your tenant's ability to pay, then there's SERIOUS issue. And by the time those data centers are fully built, the GPUs inside them will already be approaching obsolescence anyway. Nvidia releases new architectures annually. Each generation delivers dramatically more compute per watt. The hardware goes obsolete in 3 years but the debt used to buy it gets repaid over a much longer horizon. The AI infrastructure buildout is a treadmill, not a revolution. Oracle is the purest expression of that thesis. - $206 billion in reported liabilities. - Billions more hidden off-balance-sheet. - Negative $25 billion in free cash flow. - 30,000 people fired to fund the capex. - A single unprofitable customer behind over half the backlog. - Data centers years behind schedule. And 35 analysts saying buy. This doesn't sound right, does it?

George Noble

58,284 views • 3 months ago

Warm greetings on Indian Foreign Service Day! Hardeep Singh Puri Sir, your journey as a diplomat and now as a key figure in India's leadership is truly inspiring. The pride and responsibility you’ve carried while representing India globally, and now in shaping key policies, is commendable. Wishing you continued success in fostering international relations and driving India's growth forward. Here are some achievements of Shri Hardeep Singh Puri Sir : 1. Participation in G20 Summits: Advocated for global economic stability and cooperation. 2. Ambassador to Brazil: Enhanced bilateral relations and trade between India and Brazil. 3. Permanent Representative to the United Nations: Involved in significant negotiations on peacekeeping and global security. 4. Advocacy for Development Issues: Focused on poverty alleviation and sustainable development at the UN. 5. Promotion of India's Soft Power: Enhanced India's cultural diplomacy and global governance contributions. 6. Role in International Conferences: Contributed to discussions on peace and security at global summits. 7. Strengthening Ties with the Indian Diaspora: Fostered connections and highlighted their role as cultural ambassadors. 8. Crisis Response Initiatives: Led diplomatic responses during crises, providing humanitarian assistance. 9. Global Health Initiatives: Advocated for international cooperation in combating health issues. 10. Advancement of Global Trade Discussions: Promoted fair trade practices for developing nations. 11. Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas: Focused on energy security and sustainable practices. 12. Implementation of PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan: Improved multimodal connectivity and infrastructure development. 13. Expansion of Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Provided LPG connections to below-poverty-line households. 14. Support for Electric Mobility: Advocated for electric vehicles to reduce pollution. 15. Investment in Renewable Energy Projects: Championed large-scale solar and wind projects. 16. Housing for All: Implemented PMAY (Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana) for affordable housing. 17. Promotion of International Trade: Facilitated agreements to enhance India's energy exports. 18. Public Health Initiatives: Launched campaigns for safe and clean energy practices. 19. Global Energy Partnerships: Fostered collaborations in the energy sector for security and innovation. 20. Launch of the National Hydrogen Mission: Promoted hydrogen as a clean energy source. 21. Vande Bharat Mission: Led the repatriation of millions of stranded Indians during the pandemic. 22. COVID-19 Response: Maintained supply chains for uninterrupted fuel and energy availability. 23. Support for Startups and Innovations: Encouraged entrepreneurship in energy and aviation sectors. 24. Enhancement of Oil and Gas Exploration: Promoted self-sufficiency in energy resources. 25. Promotion of Alternate Fuels: Advocated for biogas and ethanol usage to support sustainability. 26. Revival of Air India: Played a key role in restoring the national carrier’s operational efficiency. 27. Expansion of LPG Infrastructure: Improved access to clean cooking fuel in rural areas. 28. Skill Development in Aviation: Promoted initiatives to enhance workforce capabilities. 29. Enhancement of Airport Infrastructure: Upgraded airports for better passenger experience. 30. Leadership in Energy Transition Discussions: Influenced sustainable practices in global energy policies. 31. National Biofuel Policy: Promoted the use of biofuels in transportation for energy security. 32. Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC): Improved energy efficiency in urban buildings. 33. Support for Women Empowerment Initiatives: Focused on increasing women's participation in energy sector leadership. 34. Crisis Management in Diplomacy: Ensured timely evacuation and assistance during international emergencies. 35. Engagement with Non-Aligned Movement: Reinforced India's leadership role among developing nations. 36. Role in Climate Agreements: Actively participated in climate change negotiations, including the Paris Agreement. 37. Promotion of India's Maritime Interests: Advocated for security cooperation in maritime affairs. 38. Promotion of Digital Diplomacy: Utilized technology for enhanced diplomatic outreach. 39. Collaboration with International Organizations: Worked with bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) for best practices. 40. Crisis Response During Natural Disasters: Coordinated India's humanitarian aid efforts in response to global crises. 41. Global Leadership in Energy Efficiency: Advocated for international collaboration on energy conservation. 42. Public-Private Partnerships in Energy: Encouraged collaborations to enhance energy infrastructure and investment. 43. Support for Renewable Energy Initiatives: Championed policies for sustainable energy generation and usage. 44. Advancement of Smart City Projects: Promoted urban development with intelligent transport systems. 45. Initiatives for Rural Electrification: Focused on extending electricity access to rural communities. 46. International Recognition: Gained accolades for contributions to energy policy and diplomacy. 47. Leadership in Peacekeeping Operations: Advocated for India's role in UN peacekeeping missions. 48. Participation in International Security Dialogues: Engaged in discussions on global security challenges. 49. Role in Counter-Terrorism Efforts: Strengthened India's position in international counter-terrorism discussions. 50. Engagement with Global Energy Forums: Influenced international energy discussions and policies. 51. Smart City Mission: Played a crucial role in the launch and implementation of the Smart City Mission, focusing on urban innovation. 52. Attracting Foreign Investment: Worked to bring in foreign investments in both the petroleum and aviation sectors. 53. Advocacy for Sustainable Urban Planning: Promoted policies to ensure sustainable urban development and housing. 54. Facilitation of International Cooperation in Urban Development: Engaged with global partners to share best practices in urban planning. 55. Launch of Housing Initiatives for Urban Poor: Developed schemes specifically targeting housing for low-income families. 56. Promotion of Energy-efficient Technologies: Advocated for the adoption of cleaner technologies in the energy sector. 57. Support for Women’s Health Initiatives: Focused on energy access and its impact on women’s health and well-being. 58. Enhancement of India’s Energy Diplomacy: Strengthened relationships with energy-producing nations. 59. Promotion of Research and Development in Energy: Encouraged innovation in energy technology and research. 60. Implementation of Smart Grids: Promoted the development of smart grids for efficient energy distribution. 61. Role in Enhancing Regional Cooperation: Advocated for regional energy cooperation in South Asia. 62. Promoting India’s Energy Security Agenda: Focused on securing India’s energy needs through diverse sources. 63. Collaboration with Industry Leaders: Worked with industry stakeholders to promote sustainable practices. 64. Global Advocacy for Clean Energy Solutions: Represented India’s interests in global clean energy discussions. 65. Promotion of Corporate Responsibility in Energy: Encouraged corporations to adopt sustainable energy practices. 66. Leadership in Urban Mobility Initiatives: Promoted policies to improve public transport and reduce urban congestion. 67. Development of Integrated Transport Systems: Advocated for a multimodal approach to transportation planning. 68. Promotion of Decentralized Energy Solutions: Supported renewable energy projects at the community level. 69. Encouragement of Local Manufacturing in Energy Sector: Advocated for indigenous production of energy technologies. 70. Promotion of Innovative Financing Mechanisms: Supported new financing models for energy projects. 71. Enhancement of Air Safety Standards: Focused on improving safety measures in civil aviation. 72. Promotion of Cargo and Logistics Services: Advocated for the growth of air cargo services to boost trade. 73. Support for Regional Air Connectivity: Strengthened initiatives for connecting underserved regions. 74. Leadership in Aviation Policy Reforms: Worked towards comprehensive reforms in the aviation sector. 75. Development of Aviation Infrastructure: Facilitated investments in airports and aviation facilities. 76. Community Engagement in Energy Projects: Promoted community involvement in renewable energy projects. 77. Support for Energy Access Initiatives: Advocated for projects that increase energy access for marginalized communities. 78. Promoting Sustainable Agriculture Practices: Focused on the role of clean energy in enhancing agricultural productivity. 79. Engagement with Youth on Energy Issues: Promoted awareness among youth regarding energy conservation and sustainability. 80. Support for Skill Development Programs: Encouraged training programs in renewable energy technologies. 81. Advocacy for Climate Action: Continued efforts in addressing climate change and promoting sustainable practices. 82. Promotion of India as an Energy Hub: Positioned India as a central player in the global energy market. 83. Leadership in Global Energy Transitions: Influenced discussions on transitioning to renewable energy sources. 84. Engagement with Multilateral Organizations: Strengthened India’s position in international organizations related to energy. 85. Commitment to National Development Goals: Aligned energy policies with national development objectives. 86. Promotion of Environmental Sustainability: Advocated for policies that balance development with environmental conservation. 87. Support for Technology Transfer: Encouraged collaboration for the transfer of clean technologies to India. 88. Participation in International Forums on Energy: Actively engaged in global dialogues on energy security and sustainability. 89. Role in Disaster Management Initiatives: Contributed to policies that integrate energy management in disaster response. 90. Implementation of Smart Energy Solutions: Advocated for the adoption of smart meters and energy-efficient appliances to enhance energy management. 91. Promotion of Clean Cooking Solutions: Launched initiatives to provide access to clean cooking fuels to reduce health hazards in rural areas. 92. Strengthening of Regulatory Frameworks: Worked on reforms to streamline regulations in the oil and gas sector, enhancing transparency and efficiency. 93. International Collaborations for Renewable Energy: Established partnerships with countries for joint research and development in renewable energy technologies. 94. Advocacy for Energy Efficiency Labels: Promoted the labeling of appliances to encourage consumers to choose energy-efficient products. 95. Engagement in International Climate Finance Discussions: Represented India in dialogues aimed at securing funding for climate change mitigation projects. 96. Promotion of Urban Sustainability Initiatives: Advocated for integrated urban development strategies that focus on sustainability and livability. 97. Support for the Production of Biofuels: Encouraged initiatives to enhance the domestic production of biofuels to achieve energy security. 98. Advancement of Women’s Leadership in Energy: Launched programs to promote women's leadership in the energy 99. Fostering Innovation in Energy Startups: Supported initiatives aimed at nurturing startups in the energy sector through mentorship and funding. 100. Commitment to India’s Energy Independence: Continually worked towards policies that enhance India’s energy independence and reduce reliance on imports and 100+ more. Narendra Modi Amit Shah Office of Hardeep Singh Puri Lakshmi M Puri Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Bharat Petroleum Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited GAIL (India) Limited Indian Foreign Service Association BJP गृहमंत्री कार्यालय, HMO India PMO India rasaal dwivedi BJP Delhi Manohar Lal Parshottam Rupala Indian Oil Corp Ltd ChairmanIOC Indian Diplomacy Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
0:51

Warm greetings on Indian Foreign Service Day! Hardeep Singh Puri Sir, your journey as a diplomat and now as a key figure in India's leadership is truly inspiring. The pride and responsibility you’ve carried while representing India globally, and now in shaping key policies, is commendable. Wishing you continued success in fostering international relations and driving India's growth forward. Here are some achievements of Shri Hardeep Singh Puri Sir : 1. Participation in G20 Summits: Advocated for global economic stability and cooperation. 2. Ambassador to Brazil: Enhanced bilateral relations and trade between India and Brazil. 3. Permanent Representative to the United Nations: Involved in significant negotiations on peacekeeping and global security. 4. Advocacy for Development Issues: Focused on poverty alleviation and sustainable development at the UN. 5. Promotion of India's Soft Power: Enhanced India's cultural diplomacy and global governance contributions. 6. Role in International Conferences: Contributed to discussions on peace and security at global summits. 7. Strengthening Ties with the Indian Diaspora: Fostered connections and highlighted their role as cultural ambassadors. 8. Crisis Response Initiatives: Led diplomatic responses during crises, providing humanitarian assistance. 9. Global Health Initiatives: Advocated for international cooperation in combating health issues. 10. Advancement of Global Trade Discussions: Promoted fair trade practices for developing nations. 11. Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas: Focused on energy security and sustainable practices. 12. Implementation of PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan: Improved multimodal connectivity and infrastructure development. 13. Expansion of Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Provided LPG connections to below-poverty-line households. 14. Support for Electric Mobility: Advocated for electric vehicles to reduce pollution. 15. Investment in Renewable Energy Projects: Championed large-scale solar and wind projects. 16. Housing for All: Implemented PMAY (Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana) for affordable housing. 17. Promotion of International Trade: Facilitated agreements to enhance India's energy exports. 18. Public Health Initiatives: Launched campaigns for safe and clean energy practices. 19. Global Energy Partnerships: Fostered collaborations in the energy sector for security and innovation. 20. Launch of the National Hydrogen Mission: Promoted hydrogen as a clean energy source. 21. Vande Bharat Mission: Led the repatriation of millions of stranded Indians during the pandemic. 22. COVID-19 Response: Maintained supply chains for uninterrupted fuel and energy availability. 23. Support for Startups and Innovations: Encouraged entrepreneurship in energy and aviation sectors. 24. Enhancement of Oil and Gas Exploration: Promoted self-sufficiency in energy resources. 25. Promotion of Alternate Fuels: Advocated for biogas and ethanol usage to support sustainability. 26. Revival of Air India: Played a key role in restoring the national carrier’s operational efficiency. 27. Expansion of LPG Infrastructure: Improved access to clean cooking fuel in rural areas. 28. Skill Development in Aviation: Promoted initiatives to enhance workforce capabilities. 29. Enhancement of Airport Infrastructure: Upgraded airports for better passenger experience. 30. Leadership in Energy Transition Discussions: Influenced sustainable practices in global energy policies. 31. National Biofuel Policy: Promoted the use of biofuels in transportation for energy security. 32. Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC): Improved energy efficiency in urban buildings. 33. Support for Women Empowerment Initiatives: Focused on increasing women's participation in energy sector leadership. 34. Crisis Management in Diplomacy: Ensured timely evacuation and assistance during international emergencies. 35. Engagement with Non-Aligned Movement: Reinforced India's leadership role among developing nations. 36. Role in Climate Agreements: Actively participated in climate change negotiations, including the Paris Agreement. 37. Promotion of India's Maritime Interests: Advocated for security cooperation in maritime affairs. 38. Promotion of Digital Diplomacy: Utilized technology for enhanced diplomatic outreach. 39. Collaboration with International Organizations: Worked with bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) for best practices. 40. Crisis Response During Natural Disasters: Coordinated India's humanitarian aid efforts in response to global crises. 41. Global Leadership in Energy Efficiency: Advocated for international collaboration on energy conservation. 42. Public-Private Partnerships in Energy: Encouraged collaborations to enhance energy infrastructure and investment. 43. Support for Renewable Energy Initiatives: Championed policies for sustainable energy generation and usage. 44. Advancement of Smart City Projects: Promoted urban development with intelligent transport systems. 45. Initiatives for Rural Electrification: Focused on extending electricity access to rural communities. 46. International Recognition: Gained accolades for contributions to energy policy and diplomacy. 47. Leadership in Peacekeeping Operations: Advocated for India's role in UN peacekeeping missions. 48. Participation in International Security Dialogues: Engaged in discussions on global security challenges. 49. Role in Counter-Terrorism Efforts: Strengthened India's position in international counter-terrorism discussions. 50. Engagement with Global Energy Forums: Influenced international energy discussions and policies. 51. Smart City Mission: Played a crucial role in the launch and implementation of the Smart City Mission, focusing on urban innovation. 52. Attracting Foreign Investment: Worked to bring in foreign investments in both the petroleum and aviation sectors. 53. Advocacy for Sustainable Urban Planning: Promoted policies to ensure sustainable urban development and housing. 54. Facilitation of International Cooperation in Urban Development: Engaged with global partners to share best practices in urban planning. 55. Launch of Housing Initiatives for Urban Poor: Developed schemes specifically targeting housing for low-income families. 56. Promotion of Energy-efficient Technologies: Advocated for the adoption of cleaner technologies in the energy sector. 57. Support for Women’s Health Initiatives: Focused on energy access and its impact on women’s health and well-being. 58. Enhancement of India’s Energy Diplomacy: Strengthened relationships with energy-producing nations. 59. Promotion of Research and Development in Energy: Encouraged innovation in energy technology and research. 60. Implementation of Smart Grids: Promoted the development of smart grids for efficient energy distribution. 61. Role in Enhancing Regional Cooperation: Advocated for regional energy cooperation in South Asia. 62. Promoting India’s Energy Security Agenda: Focused on securing India’s energy needs through diverse sources. 63. Collaboration with Industry Leaders: Worked with industry stakeholders to promote sustainable practices. 64. Global Advocacy for Clean Energy Solutions: Represented India’s interests in global clean energy discussions. 65. Promotion of Corporate Responsibility in Energy: Encouraged corporations to adopt sustainable energy practices. 66. Leadership in Urban Mobility Initiatives: Promoted policies to improve public transport and reduce urban congestion. 67. Development of Integrated Transport Systems: Advocated for a multimodal approach to transportation planning. 68. Promotion of Decentralized Energy Solutions: Supported renewable energy projects at the community level. 69. Encouragement of Local Manufacturing in Energy Sector: Advocated for indigenous production of energy technologies. 70. Promotion of Innovative Financing Mechanisms: Supported new financing models for energy projects. 71. Enhancement of Air Safety Standards: Focused on improving safety measures in civil aviation. 72. Promotion of Cargo and Logistics Services: Advocated for the growth of air cargo services to boost trade. 73. Support for Regional Air Connectivity: Strengthened initiatives for connecting underserved regions. 74. Leadership in Aviation Policy Reforms: Worked towards comprehensive reforms in the aviation sector. 75. Development of Aviation Infrastructure: Facilitated investments in airports and aviation facilities. 76. Community Engagement in Energy Projects: Promoted community involvement in renewable energy projects. 77. Support for Energy Access Initiatives: Advocated for projects that increase energy access for marginalized communities. 78. Promoting Sustainable Agriculture Practices: Focused on the role of clean energy in enhancing agricultural productivity. 79. Engagement with Youth on Energy Issues: Promoted awareness among youth regarding energy conservation and sustainability. 80. Support for Skill Development Programs: Encouraged training programs in renewable energy technologies. 81. Advocacy for Climate Action: Continued efforts in addressing climate change and promoting sustainable practices. 82. Promotion of India as an Energy Hub: Positioned India as a central player in the global energy market. 83. Leadership in Global Energy Transitions: Influenced discussions on transitioning to renewable energy sources. 84. Engagement with Multilateral Organizations: Strengthened India’s position in international organizations related to energy. 85. Commitment to National Development Goals: Aligned energy policies with national development objectives. 86. Promotion of Environmental Sustainability: Advocated for policies that balance development with environmental conservation. 87. Support for Technology Transfer: Encouraged collaboration for the transfer of clean technologies to India. 88. Participation in International Forums on Energy: Actively engaged in global dialogues on energy security and sustainability. 89. Role in Disaster Management Initiatives: Contributed to policies that integrate energy management in disaster response. 90. Implementation of Smart Energy Solutions: Advocated for the adoption of smart meters and energy-efficient appliances to enhance energy management. 91. Promotion of Clean Cooking Solutions: Launched initiatives to provide access to clean cooking fuels to reduce health hazards in rural areas. 92. Strengthening of Regulatory Frameworks: Worked on reforms to streamline regulations in the oil and gas sector, enhancing transparency and efficiency. 93. International Collaborations for Renewable Energy: Established partnerships with countries for joint research and development in renewable energy technologies. 94. Advocacy for Energy Efficiency Labels: Promoted the labeling of appliances to encourage consumers to choose energy-efficient products. 95. Engagement in International Climate Finance Discussions: Represented India in dialogues aimed at securing funding for climate change mitigation projects. 96. Promotion of Urban Sustainability Initiatives: Advocated for integrated urban development strategies that focus on sustainability and livability. 97. Support for the Production of Biofuels: Encouraged initiatives to enhance the domestic production of biofuels to achieve energy security. 98. Advancement of Women’s Leadership in Energy: Launched programs to promote women's leadership in the energy 99. Fostering Innovation in Energy Startups: Supported initiatives aimed at nurturing startups in the energy sector through mentorship and funding. 100. Commitment to India’s Energy Independence: Continually worked towards policies that enhance India’s energy independence and reduce reliance on imports and 100+ more. Narendra Modi Amit Shah Office of Hardeep Singh Puri Lakshmi M Puri Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas #MoPNG Bharat Petroleum Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited GAIL (India) Limited Indian Foreign Service Association BJP गृहमंत्री कार्यालय, HMO India PMO India rasaal dwivedi BJP Delhi Manohar Lal Parshottam Rupala Indian Oil Corp Ltd ChairmanIOC Indian Diplomacy Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs

Rajashekhar Masna

50,775 views • 1 year ago

$GRAB Secret Sauce 🧵 How this company will thrive to $300B MC and beyond! It took me a while to gather the material for this thread. I will link down below other threads I talked extensively on all current and future $GRAB services to avoid making this thread too long. It is very important to understand product roadmap on the SuperApp, and how it will make money over the long-term, and transfer that value creation to shareholders. The closest analogy for new investors to understand is Amazon obsession over customers where $AMZN makes a little bit of money on each transaction to break even, but make the most money on Prime Membership. Or Costco obsession over customers where $COST makes 10-15% margin or lower on most products to break even on operation, but to make the most money on Costco membership fees. Jeff Bezos famously said "investors should invest in the company that obsesses customer experiencein the long term, there's never any misalignment between customer interests and shareholder interests!" The TLDR version: Being Customer Obsessed over Competition. We never heard much where Anthony Tan described or bitter about competition. Because Anthony does pay attention to competition, but he is more focused or obsessed on how to serve customers better at the lowest price possible, those that pay for $GRAB services. It is not just a business, it is a mission from first day of $GRAB or formerly known as MyTeksi. Anthony Tan and Co-founder Hooi Ling Tan both met at a class “Business at the Base of the Pyramid.” This class shaped the years of $GRAB success and today mission, creating a valuable business servicing the mass market, the lower income communities. Now, lets start with Customer Obession. $Grab does not see just users as customers, Anthony Tan views drivers, merchants, and partners are customers as well for long term success of the company. This is a big differentiator that contributed to GRAB success today. A. Hyperfocus on users: Grab emphasizes safety, with 99.9% of rides completed without incidents, and offers affordable options like Saver rides (26% of mobility transactions, 1.5X higher order frequency) alongside high-value services like Premium Rides and GrabUnlimited (3.7X more frequent usage, 2X higher retention). This likely enhances user satisfaction and retention, driving revenue growth, as seen in their Q1 2025 earnings of $773 million, up 18% year-over-year. But it does not stop at rides, it translate this obsession into food/grocery/financial and other services. Anthony Tan centered $GRAB success on affordability and reliability over the long-term since its early startup day. Essentially, the long-term TAM for servicing 2- 3 billion people is to get 30-50% of them on GrabUnlimited. Now it is $4.99 a month, will probably be adjusted to $7-$10 adjusted to inflation 10-15 years from now or around $7-$10B or more subscription revenue straight to net income B. Hyperfocus on Merchants: Grab has significantly focused on merchant growth as a core strategy to expand its ecosystem, particularly through its GrabFood, GrabMart, and financial services like GrabFinance. The reason is simple, these merchants/businesses are bringing in user growth. Businesses also pay GRAB on ea transaction very well, and at the same time using Cheap Loan(provided by Grab) to expand, and pay on GrabAds(this will have the highest margin after GrabUnlimited up to 50-60%). Grab also investing heavily on #AI to help merchants with OpenAI and Anthropic partnerships. The impact is unreal with this core strategy, many merchants today have more than 50-60% of its monhtly sales from $GRAB SuperApp(grew from 10-15% in 2021-2022). This approach has positioned Grab as a leader in Southeast Asia’s on-demand market, with significant potential for further expansion as it continues to innovate and optimize C. Hyperfocus on Drivers: In today world, you will never see $uber or Lyft talking about seeing drivers as customers. GRAB is the only company that sees Drivers as customers, and this focus is critical to maintaining a robust supply of driver-partners to meet consumer demand for ride-hailing, food delivery, and other services. Grab has scaled its driver network significantly since going public day with 5-6m registered driver-partners. Expanding rental/low fee fleets to secure drivers, creating stable employment in its current 8 countries. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Bongbong Marcos recently acknowledged $GRAB's significant impact on employment in the Philippines. All of 8 countries Grab operates in, all presidents and PM have praised Grab contribution on employment in their countries. GRAB makes its the company mission to expand more drivers registered on $GRAB SuperApp. Last Fun Fact, GRAB drivers in its 8 market have much higher income than BA degree holders and in many cases x2 or x3 the average salaries due to Grab Dynamic Pricing to bring supply and demand back to lowest price. AKA when demand is mad high, price will be higher to attract more drivers to bring down price. Drivers financial success is Grab long-term success. Conclusion: Grab's SuperApp success, as evidenced by Q1 2025 financials, is tied to putting customers, drivers, and merchants first. Their focus on safety, affordability, financial inclusion, and upskilling creates a robust ecosystem, reflected in increased MTUs, revenue growth, and profitability. The SuperApp will expand to 3 billion people TAM or more over the long term. 1. User Growth(Transactional Users) 2. GrabAds (expanding beyond SuperApp into Physical Grocery/Fleets) 3. GrabUnlimited( Expanding valuable services/features to make it stupid not to have it) Over the long-term, $GRAB will expand beyond SuperApp. Just like when Amazon has some spare computer capacity and decided to rent it out and became the AWS today, which is a behemoth that's now >4 times bigger than its original shopping business. No, I'm not saying $GRAB is the next Amazon. I'm telling you that with this "Secret Sauce" strategy of customer obsession, Anthony Tan can expand to other ventures with the massive FCF+ and profitable SuperApp to fund it. Disclaimer: I do own a large position in the Private Portfolio, and currently 100% on $GRAB on small public portfolio. This is the public portfolio where I contribute $500-$1000 of my own money. This public portfolio is not intended to be just 100% pure $GRAB, but it is the first position. I will try to keep it under 10 companies, and high quality growth businesses ONLY. I will not bother with garbage or hyped businesses where people just hype x10 x100 x1000 next week/year. You can follow others for that. Everything I wrote here is NOT Financial Advice! Source: Private Sources, Grab Dot Com, Webull, TOS, Bloomberg, Various Asian Media Outlets, Youtube, Anthony Tan, WSJ, Financial Times, Yahoo, Reuters, Jakarta Globe...
12:54

$GRAB Secret Sauce 🧵 How this company will thrive to $300B MC and beyond! It took me a while to gather the material for this thread. I will link down below other threads I talked extensively on all current and future $GRAB services to avoid making this thread too long. It is very important to understand product roadmap on the SuperApp, and how it will make money over the long-term, and transfer that value creation to shareholders. The closest analogy for new investors to understand is Amazon obsession over customers where $AMZN makes a little bit of money on each transaction to break even, but make the most money on Prime Membership. Or Costco obsession over customers where $COST makes 10-15% margin or lower on most products to break even on operation, but to make the most money on Costco membership fees. Jeff Bezos famously said "investors should invest in the company that obsesses customer experiencein the long term, there's never any misalignment between customer interests and shareholder interests!" The TLDR version: Being Customer Obsessed over Competition. We never heard much where Anthony Tan described or bitter about competition. Because Anthony does pay attention to competition, but he is more focused or obsessed on how to serve customers better at the lowest price possible, those that pay for $GRAB services. It is not just a business, it is a mission from first day of $GRAB or formerly known as MyTeksi. Anthony Tan and Co-founder Hooi Ling Tan both met at a class “Business at the Base of the Pyramid.” This class shaped the years of $GRAB success and today mission, creating a valuable business servicing the mass market, the lower income communities. Now, lets start with Customer Obession. $Grab does not see just users as customers, Anthony Tan views drivers, merchants, and partners are customers as well for long term success of the company. This is a big differentiator that contributed to GRAB success today. A. Hyperfocus on users: Grab emphasizes safety, with 99.9% of rides completed without incidents, and offers affordable options like Saver rides (26% of mobility transactions, 1.5X higher order frequency) alongside high-value services like Premium Rides and GrabUnlimited (3.7X more frequent usage, 2X higher retention). This likely enhances user satisfaction and retention, driving revenue growth, as seen in their Q1 2025 earnings of $773 million, up 18% year-over-year. But it does not stop at rides, it translate this obsession into food/grocery/financial and other services. Anthony Tan centered $GRAB success on affordability and reliability over the long-term since its early startup day. Essentially, the long-term TAM for servicing 2- 3 billion people is to get 30-50% of them on GrabUnlimited. Now it is $4.99 a month, will probably be adjusted to $7-$10 adjusted to inflation 10-15 years from now or around $7-$10B or more subscription revenue straight to net income B. Hyperfocus on Merchants: Grab has significantly focused on merchant growth as a core strategy to expand its ecosystem, particularly through its GrabFood, GrabMart, and financial services like GrabFinance. The reason is simple, these merchants/businesses are bringing in user growth. Businesses also pay GRAB on ea transaction very well, and at the same time using Cheap Loan(provided by Grab) to expand, and pay on GrabAds(this will have the highest margin after GrabUnlimited up to 50-60%). Grab also investing heavily on #AI to help merchants with OpenAI and Anthropic partnerships. The impact is unreal with this core strategy, many merchants today have more than 50-60% of its monhtly sales from $GRAB SuperApp(grew from 10-15% in 2021-2022). This approach has positioned Grab as a leader in Southeast Asia’s on-demand market, with significant potential for further expansion as it continues to innovate and optimize C. Hyperfocus on Drivers: In today world, you will never see $uber or Lyft talking about seeing drivers as customers. GRAB is the only company that sees Drivers as customers, and this focus is critical to maintaining a robust supply of driver-partners to meet consumer demand for ride-hailing, food delivery, and other services. Grab has scaled its driver network significantly since going public day with 5-6m registered driver-partners. Expanding rental/low fee fleets to secure drivers, creating stable employment in its current 8 countries. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Bongbong Marcos recently acknowledged $GRAB's significant impact on employment in the Philippines. All of 8 countries Grab operates in, all presidents and PM have praised Grab contribution on employment in their countries. GRAB makes its the company mission to expand more drivers registered on $GRAB SuperApp. Last Fun Fact, GRAB drivers in its 8 market have much higher income than BA degree holders and in many cases x2 or x3 the average salaries due to Grab Dynamic Pricing to bring supply and demand back to lowest price. AKA when demand is mad high, price will be higher to attract more drivers to bring down price. Drivers financial success is Grab long-term success. Conclusion: Grab's SuperApp success, as evidenced by Q1 2025 financials, is tied to putting customers, drivers, and merchants first. Their focus on safety, affordability, financial inclusion, and upskilling creates a robust ecosystem, reflected in increased MTUs, revenue growth, and profitability. The SuperApp will expand to 3 billion people TAM or more over the long term. 1. User Growth(Transactional Users) 2. GrabAds (expanding beyond SuperApp into Physical Grocery/Fleets) 3. GrabUnlimited( Expanding valuable services/features to make it stupid not to have it) Over the long-term, $GRAB will expand beyond SuperApp. Just like when Amazon has some spare computer capacity and decided to rent it out and became the AWS today, which is a behemoth that's now >4 times bigger than its original shopping business. No, I'm not saying $GRAB is the next Amazon. I'm telling you that with this "Secret Sauce" strategy of customer obsession, Anthony Tan can expand to other ventures with the massive FCF+ and profitable SuperApp to fund it. Disclaimer: I do own a large position in the Private Portfolio, and currently 100% on $GRAB on small public portfolio. This is the public portfolio where I contribute $500-$1000 of my own money. This public portfolio is not intended to be just 100% pure $GRAB, but it is the first position. I will try to keep it under 10 companies, and high quality growth businesses ONLY. I will not bother with garbage or hyped businesses where people just hype x10 x100 x1000 next week/year. You can follow others for that. Everything I wrote here is NOT Financial Advice! Source: Private Sources, Grab Dot Com, Webull, TOS, Bloomberg, Various Asian Media Outlets, Youtube, Anthony Tan, WSJ, Financial Times, Yahoo, Reuters, Jakarta Globe...

Mike

209,603 views • 1 year ago

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
13:03

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

301,322 views • 3 months ago

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC
5:21

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

George Noble

1,225,412 views • 3 months ago

President Donald Trump is causing a constitutional crisis by eliminating the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and giving Elon Musk access to confidential Treasury records, say the media and Democrats. The American people didn’t elect Musk, said Democrats in a rally on Friday, where some House members were disallowed from entering the Department of Education. A judge on Friday restricted Musk’s team’s access to Treasury records. Trump yesterday, in an interview with Bret Baier of Fox, said that Musk would soon begin seeking efficiencies in the Departments of Defense and Education. As such, what’s happening is a “constitutional crisis,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin on Meet the Press, where he threatened a class action lawsuit on behalf of the American people. But there is no constitutional crisis. The American people elected Trump as president, and he, not Congress, exercises authority over all executive branch agencies, including USAID, the Department of Education, the Department of Defense, and the Treasury Department. Trump has clear Constitutional authority to audit the finances overseen by the Treasury and every other agency, and that includes assigning that audit to whoever he chooses. The Constitution grants Congress oversight duties but those powers do not include members being allowed to enter any executive branch building whenever they please. None of that means that the administration should ignore Congress, court orders, or the potential public health problems that could be created by the closure of USAID and freezing of its funds. Said the surgeon, New Yorker author, and former USAID official, Atul Gawande, on X, “20M people with HIV, including 500,000 children, have been cut off from access to medicines keeping them alive. Global HIV transmission, resistance, and deaths will now increase, endangering all.” Gawande added that, as a result of the loss of USAID, the US has lost critical bird flu surveillance, sacrificed humanitarian aid in Gaza, and halted the resettlement of former Islamic State combatants. USAID may have been doing and funding projects that were worthwhile. And it may be that Congress will need to pass legislation to continue those projects through the State Department. But it’s emotional blackmail to suggest the USAID closure and freeze on aid will kill African children. The Trump administration already created a waiver for HIV treatment and resumed aid for tuberculosis, malaria, and newborn health. And USAID’s health programs should be subject to scrutiny, given the agency’s history of using such programs as cover for other activities, including regime change and biodefense research. For example, under President Barack Obama’s administration, USAID was caught using an HIV program to foment rebellion in Cuba. USAID used EcoHealth Alliance as a passthrough organization to funnel $1.1 million to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which was conducting risky gain-of-function experiments that may have caused the Covid pandemic. As such, anyone who truly believes in public health for poor people in poor nations must agree that USAID needs to be reined in and cleaned up. That starts first with precisely the kind of audit the Democrats are trying to stop. After that, USAID — and other government agencies eventually — must justify what they are spending money on. The public’s interest is ensuring that every dollar of taxpayer money is accounted for and justified. A major reason that the American people elected Trump was precisely because they believed he would reform the government, and that meant rooting out abuse, fraud, and waste. There is a large body of evidence of all three in USAID, the DOD, and the Department of Education. And, as for complying with the law on the closure of USAID, support for just such a law is growing in Congress. The media and others in Washington, D.C., have known for decades that USAID was a hub of fraud and abuse. The Washington Post cited two individuals with the Center for Global Development, a center-left think tank funded by Bill Gates that has been defending USAID, who told the Washington Post that a claim by Musk that just 10% of USAID money reached people on the ground was “wildly incorrect and misleading.” But their clarification — that just “10 percent of USAID payments are made directly to organizations in the developing world” and the “remaining 90 percent” is delivered by organizations in the US and developed world — underscored that USAID fundamentally isn’t working. Think about it. If USAID were so effective in achieving its ostensible goal of “development,” why are the countries it works in still so poor and underdeveloped? In truth, Democrats and Republicans alike have recognized for decades that USAID needed reform. In 2015, even the Center for Global Development urged a “top-to-bottom review of USAID’s sector- and country-based activities based upon program effectiveness, allocation of USAID resources, alignment with partner priorities, and national security implications” followed by “comprehensive reform.” As recently as 2021, the media acknowledged the obvious. That year, the New York Times published an article headlined, “U.S. Aid to Central America Hasn’t Slowed Migration. Can Kamala Harris?” In it the Times acknowledged that “experts say the reasons that years of aid have not curbed migration” is in part because “much of the money is handed over to American companies, which swallow a lot of it for salaries, expenses and profits, often before any services are delivered” — precisely the reason President Trump shut down USAID. Wrote the Times, “From 2016 to 2020, 80 percent of the American-financed development projects in Central America were entrusted to American contractors, according to data provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development.” It’s the same story for education. Just 10 days ago, the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) released the latest test scores showing yet another decline in reading and continued flat-lining in math for eighth graders. The media described the test results as a “new low” and “even worse” than in the past and “disheartening.” Democrats and the media thus know perfectly well that the Department of Education’s work is either insufficient to counteract the decline or is actively contributing to it, and thus reform of the Department of Education is highly reasonable. And yet Democrats demanded they be allowed to enter the Department of Education headquarters in Washington as though to defend it. From what? Improvement? The position of the Democrats is even more ridiculous when one considers the example of the Defense Department. Will Democrats now, after decades of attacking military spending as wasteful, defend it? If they do, they will alienate their own partisans. But if they don’t, then they will find it difficult to answer the question of why reform is necessary in the military but not in the Department of Education or USAID? Making the situation even more surreal is that it was Democrats, not Republicans, who made the biggest push for government efficiency and reform in the last thirty years. In 1993, shortly after taking office, President Bill Clinton empowered Vice President Al Gore to oversee a “Reinventing Government” initiative. The aim was to streamline bureaucracy, cut costs, and improve government efficiency. It emphasized customer service, performance-based management, and innovation — all things that Musk is famous for implementing at his companies. It’s not obvious why Democrats are opposing Trump’s actions. Doing so reinforces that they are the party of waste, fraud, and abuse. Polling shows that public support for Trump is at an all-time high of 53%, according to a new CBS poll. By contrast, 57% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, the worst numbers in 17 years. Nor is it obvious why the media has maintained its anti-Trump bias. The Washington Post’s daily traffic declined by nearly 90% from 23 million daily active users in January 2021 to 2.5 to 3 million in the middle of last year. In the week ending November 24, CNN and MSNBC lost 47% and 53% of their primetime viewership. Last month, CNN announced it was laying off 200 employees while MSNBC saw its president step down. Politico’s cofounder said last week that “The left right now, liberal media, has probably never been weaker in my lifetime than right now.” The public desperately wants reform, and 60% of the public has long supported cutting foreign aid, which has long been popular with the public. Why can’t Democrats and the media just embrace Trump’s government efficiency effort? Why are they engaging in such seemingly self-destructive behavior? Please subscribe now to support Public's award winning journalism, watch the rest of the video, and read the rest of the article by alex gutentag and Michael Shellenberger !
9:55

President Donald Trump is causing a constitutional crisis by eliminating the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and giving Elon Musk access to confidential Treasury records, say the media and Democrats. The American people didn’t elect Musk, said Democrats in a rally on Friday, where some House members were disallowed from entering the Department of Education. A judge on Friday restricted Musk’s team’s access to Treasury records. Trump yesterday, in an interview with Bret Baier of Fox, said that Musk would soon begin seeking efficiencies in the Departments of Defense and Education. As such, what’s happening is a “constitutional crisis,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin on Meet the Press, where he threatened a class action lawsuit on behalf of the American people. But there is no constitutional crisis. The American people elected Trump as president, and he, not Congress, exercises authority over all executive branch agencies, including USAID, the Department of Education, the Department of Defense, and the Treasury Department. Trump has clear Constitutional authority to audit the finances overseen by the Treasury and every other agency, and that includes assigning that audit to whoever he chooses. The Constitution grants Congress oversight duties but those powers do not include members being allowed to enter any executive branch building whenever they please. None of that means that the administration should ignore Congress, court orders, or the potential public health problems that could be created by the closure of USAID and freezing of its funds. Said the surgeon, New Yorker author, and former USAID official, Atul Gawande, on X, “20M people with HIV, including 500,000 children, have been cut off from access to medicines keeping them alive. Global HIV transmission, resistance, and deaths will now increase, endangering all.” Gawande added that, as a result of the loss of USAID, the US has lost critical bird flu surveillance, sacrificed humanitarian aid in Gaza, and halted the resettlement of former Islamic State combatants. USAID may have been doing and funding projects that were worthwhile. And it may be that Congress will need to pass legislation to continue those projects through the State Department. But it’s emotional blackmail to suggest the USAID closure and freeze on aid will kill African children. The Trump administration already created a waiver for HIV treatment and resumed aid for tuberculosis, malaria, and newborn health. And USAID’s health programs should be subject to scrutiny, given the agency’s history of using such programs as cover for other activities, including regime change and biodefense research. For example, under President Barack Obama’s administration, USAID was caught using an HIV program to foment rebellion in Cuba. USAID used EcoHealth Alliance as a passthrough organization to funnel $1.1 million to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which was conducting risky gain-of-function experiments that may have caused the Covid pandemic. As such, anyone who truly believes in public health for poor people in poor nations must agree that USAID needs to be reined in and cleaned up. That starts first with precisely the kind of audit the Democrats are trying to stop. After that, USAID — and other government agencies eventually — must justify what they are spending money on. The public’s interest is ensuring that every dollar of taxpayer money is accounted for and justified. A major reason that the American people elected Trump was precisely because they believed he would reform the government, and that meant rooting out abuse, fraud, and waste. There is a large body of evidence of all three in USAID, the DOD, and the Department of Education. And, as for complying with the law on the closure of USAID, support for just such a law is growing in Congress. The media and others in Washington, D.C., have known for decades that USAID was a hub of fraud and abuse. The Washington Post cited two individuals with the Center for Global Development, a center-left think tank funded by Bill Gates that has been defending USAID, who told the Washington Post that a claim by Musk that just 10% of USAID money reached people on the ground was “wildly incorrect and misleading.” But their clarification — that just “10 percent of USAID payments are made directly to organizations in the developing world” and the “remaining 90 percent” is delivered by organizations in the US and developed world — underscored that USAID fundamentally isn’t working. Think about it. If USAID were so effective in achieving its ostensible goal of “development,” why are the countries it works in still so poor and underdeveloped? In truth, Democrats and Republicans alike have recognized for decades that USAID needed reform. In 2015, even the Center for Global Development urged a “top-to-bottom review of USAID’s sector- and country-based activities based upon program effectiveness, allocation of USAID resources, alignment with partner priorities, and national security implications” followed by “comprehensive reform.” As recently as 2021, the media acknowledged the obvious. That year, the New York Times published an article headlined, “U.S. Aid to Central America Hasn’t Slowed Migration. Can Kamala Harris?” In it the Times acknowledged that “experts say the reasons that years of aid have not curbed migration” is in part because “much of the money is handed over to American companies, which swallow a lot of it for salaries, expenses and profits, often before any services are delivered” — precisely the reason President Trump shut down USAID. Wrote the Times, “From 2016 to 2020, 80 percent of the American-financed development projects in Central America were entrusted to American contractors, according to data provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development.” It’s the same story for education. Just 10 days ago, the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) released the latest test scores showing yet another decline in reading and continued flat-lining in math for eighth graders. The media described the test results as a “new low” and “even worse” than in the past and “disheartening.” Democrats and the media thus know perfectly well that the Department of Education’s work is either insufficient to counteract the decline or is actively contributing to it, and thus reform of the Department of Education is highly reasonable. And yet Democrats demanded they be allowed to enter the Department of Education headquarters in Washington as though to defend it. From what? Improvement? The position of the Democrats is even more ridiculous when one considers the example of the Defense Department. Will Democrats now, after decades of attacking military spending as wasteful, defend it? If they do, they will alienate their own partisans. But if they don’t, then they will find it difficult to answer the question of why reform is necessary in the military but not in the Department of Education or USAID? Making the situation even more surreal is that it was Democrats, not Republicans, who made the biggest push for government efficiency and reform in the last thirty years. In 1993, shortly after taking office, President Bill Clinton empowered Vice President Al Gore to oversee a “Reinventing Government” initiative. The aim was to streamline bureaucracy, cut costs, and improve government efficiency. It emphasized customer service, performance-based management, and innovation — all things that Musk is famous for implementing at his companies. It’s not obvious why Democrats are opposing Trump’s actions. Doing so reinforces that they are the party of waste, fraud, and abuse. Polling shows that public support for Trump is at an all-time high of 53%, according to a new CBS poll. By contrast, 57% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, the worst numbers in 17 years. Nor is it obvious why the media has maintained its anti-Trump bias. The Washington Post’s daily traffic declined by nearly 90% from 23 million daily active users in January 2021 to 2.5 to 3 million in the middle of last year. In the week ending November 24, CNN and MSNBC lost 47% and 53% of their primetime viewership. Last month, CNN announced it was laying off 200 employees while MSNBC saw its president step down. Politico’s cofounder said last week that “The left right now, liberal media, has probably never been weaker in my lifetime than right now.” The public desperately wants reform, and 60% of the public has long supported cutting foreign aid, which has long been popular with the public. Why can’t Democrats and the media just embrace Trump’s government efficiency effort? Why are they engaging in such seemingly self-destructive behavior? Please subscribe now to support Public's award winning journalism, watch the rest of the video, and read the rest of the article by alex gutentag and Michael Shellenberger !

Michael Shellenberger

123,199 views • 1 year ago

$AMD $MSFT Partnership is MASSIVE in 2026 🚀 If you were excited about my thread on $AMD $AMZN AWS long time partnership, you will be even more excited about what Microsoft gonna do with 2026 AMD EPYC "Venice". Historical Context: The relationship between AMD and Microsoft began in the early 2000s, with Microsoft initially focusing on Intel's x86 architecture for its Windows operating system and server products. However, AMD's entry into the server market with its Opteron processors in 2003 marked the beginning of a competitive dynamic that eventually led to collaboration. The partnership intensified with the launch of 3rd Generation EPYC "Milan" in 2021, powering Azure's N2D and C2D VM families. By 2025, Microsoft had integrated 5th Generation EPYC "Turin" into new compute-optimized instances, reflecting a strategic shift towards AMD for cost and performance benefits. This "Secret Weapon" breakthrough will mark another inflection point for AMD Microsoft Azure relationship, will probably be more aggressive than EPYC "Milan" moment in 2021. We can call it EPYC "Venice" moment 2026" 1. Technical performance of AMD EPYC "Venice" (2026) AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for Microsoft Azure , enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. ~Up to 256 Zen 6 cores, a 70% performance increase over "Turin," optimized for AI and HPC. ~Memory and Bandwidth: 1.6 TB/s per socket, doubling "Turin's" capability, with support for MR-DIMM/MCR-DIMM. ~Efficiency: 1,500-1,700W power draw, a 50% reduction, aligning with Microsoft's sustainability initiatives. ~Interconnect: PCIe 6.0 and a new chiplet fabric for rack-scale AI, reducing latency and enhancing scalability. 2. Why $MSFT will adopt $AMD YPYC Share to 50%+ in 2026. AMD EPYC Share: ~30-35% of Azure's x86 CPU-based business while Intel Xeon share is 65% Microsoft's Azure has been progressively integrating AMD EPYC, with "Venice" expected to expand this footprint: A. Dominance of AI Inference Workloads ~AI inference constitutes 80% of AI workloads in cloud environments, with latency-sensitive applications like chatbots, recommendation engines, and fraud detection requiring sub-second response times. ~"Venice's" 35x inference performance uplift directly addresses these requirements, outperforming Intel's offerings and custom Arm solutions in multi-threaded scenarios. B. Cost Efficiency and Operational Savings ~Azure's 2025 capex of $118B is under pressure to deliver returns. "Venice" can reduce operational expenses by $20-30B annually due to its power efficiency and performance gains, improving Azure's margins to 35-40%. ~The cost per inference operation is significantly lower with "Venice," estimated at 24-31% less than Intel-based alternatives, enhancing Azure's competitiveness against AWS and GCP. C. Scalability for Enterprise AI: ~"Venice" supports rack-scale AI deployments, enabling Azure to scale AI services for enterprise customers. For example, a 1,000-node cluster can process 700,000+ tokens per second, crucial for large-scale AI applications like personalized marketing and predictive analytics. ~This scalability is particularly important as Azure aims to capture the $100B+ AI opportunity by 2026, as stated by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. D. Reduction of Nvidia Dependency ~While Nvidia ( $NVDA) dominates AI accelerators, AMD's integrated EPYC-GPU solutions (MI450 with "Venice") offer a balanced approach, reducing Azure's reliance on Nvidia's high-cost GPUs. ~"Venice" enables hybrid inference models, where CPU-based inference handles 80% of workloads, and GPU acceleration is reserved for training and complex tasks, optimizing resource allocation. 3. Financial Implication: ~Revenue from Azure could reach $15-18B annually by 2026, part of a total revenue projection of $70-100B ~Profit margins could improve to 55-60%, boosting net income to $20-25B, supported by scale economies and reduced production costs. Intel could respond by giving more aggressive discounts, but this breakthrough has been a decade long of $AMD R&D, or rethinking chiplet design, a complete new approach. "Venice's" lead in AI inference and efficiency is challenging to match. Broader Industry: Other hyperscalers ( Amazon Web Services , GCP) and enterprises will follow Azure's lead, standardizing EPYC technology and pressuring Intel further. This could lead to a broader industry shift towards AMD, enhancing its ecosystem and bargaining power. Conclusion: The strategic adoption of AMD's 6th Generation EPYC "Venice" processors by Microsoft Azure in 2026 marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of cloud computing, particularly for AI inference capabilities. "Venice's" groundbreaking chiplet design, offering a 35x performance uplift for AI inference tasks, a 50% reduction in power consumption, and unparalleled scalability, positions Azure to leapfrog its competitors in the race for AI dominance. This technical superiority, combined with significant cost savings potentially $20-30B annually in operational expenses; aligns perfectly with Microsoft's ambitions to capture the $100B+ Revenue AI opportunity by 2026. The shift to 50% x86 market share for AMD within Azure is not merely a technical transition but a strategic realignment that redefines the competitive landscape. Historically, Microsoft's partnership with AMD has evolved from niche deployments to a core component of Azure's infrastructure, and "Venice" accelerates this trend. The 30-35% AMD EPYC share in 2025 is expected to double, driven by new VM families like C4D and H4D, which will dominate AI-intensive and HPC workloads. This migration is incentivized by "Venice's" efficiency gains, reducing dependency on Intel and Nvidia, and enhancing Azure's sustainability profile. Not Financial Advice!
7:18

$AMD $MSFT Partnership is MASSIVE in 2026 🚀 If you were excited about my thread on $AMD $AMZN AWS long time partnership, you will be even more excited about what Microsoft gonna do with 2026 AMD EPYC "Venice". Historical Context: The relationship between AMD and Microsoft began in the early 2000s, with Microsoft initially focusing on Intel's x86 architecture for its Windows operating system and server products. However, AMD's entry into the server market with its Opteron processors in 2003 marked the beginning of a competitive dynamic that eventually led to collaboration. The partnership intensified with the launch of 3rd Generation EPYC "Milan" in 2021, powering Azure's N2D and C2D VM families. By 2025, Microsoft had integrated 5th Generation EPYC "Turin" into new compute-optimized instances, reflecting a strategic shift towards AMD for cost and performance benefits. This "Secret Weapon" breakthrough will mark another inflection point for AMD Microsoft Azure relationship, will probably be more aggressive than EPYC "Milan" moment in 2021. We can call it EPYC "Venice" moment 2026" 1. Technical performance of AMD EPYC "Venice" (2026) AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for Microsoft Azure , enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. ~Up to 256 Zen 6 cores, a 70% performance increase over "Turin," optimized for AI and HPC. ~Memory and Bandwidth: 1.6 TB/s per socket, doubling "Turin's" capability, with support for MR-DIMM/MCR-DIMM. ~Efficiency: 1,500-1,700W power draw, a 50% reduction, aligning with Microsoft's sustainability initiatives. ~Interconnect: PCIe 6.0 and a new chiplet fabric for rack-scale AI, reducing latency and enhancing scalability. 2. Why $MSFT will adopt $AMD YPYC Share to 50%+ in 2026. AMD EPYC Share: ~30-35% of Azure's x86 CPU-based business while Intel Xeon share is 65% Microsoft's Azure has been progressively integrating AMD EPYC, with "Venice" expected to expand this footprint: A. Dominance of AI Inference Workloads ~AI inference constitutes 80% of AI workloads in cloud environments, with latency-sensitive applications like chatbots, recommendation engines, and fraud detection requiring sub-second response times. ~"Venice's" 35x inference performance uplift directly addresses these requirements, outperforming Intel's offerings and custom Arm solutions in multi-threaded scenarios. B. Cost Efficiency and Operational Savings ~Azure's 2025 capex of $118B is under pressure to deliver returns. "Venice" can reduce operational expenses by $20-30B annually due to its power efficiency and performance gains, improving Azure's margins to 35-40%. ~The cost per inference operation is significantly lower with "Venice," estimated at 24-31% less than Intel-based alternatives, enhancing Azure's competitiveness against AWS and GCP. C. Scalability for Enterprise AI: ~"Venice" supports rack-scale AI deployments, enabling Azure to scale AI services for enterprise customers. For example, a 1,000-node cluster can process 700,000+ tokens per second, crucial for large-scale AI applications like personalized marketing and predictive analytics. ~This scalability is particularly important as Azure aims to capture the $100B+ AI opportunity by 2026, as stated by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. D. Reduction of Nvidia Dependency ~While Nvidia ( $NVDA) dominates AI accelerators, AMD's integrated EPYC-GPU solutions (MI450 with "Venice") offer a balanced approach, reducing Azure's reliance on Nvidia's high-cost GPUs. ~"Venice" enables hybrid inference models, where CPU-based inference handles 80% of workloads, and GPU acceleration is reserved for training and complex tasks, optimizing resource allocation. 3. Financial Implication: ~Revenue from Azure could reach $15-18B annually by 2026, part of a total revenue projection of $70-100B ~Profit margins could improve to 55-60%, boosting net income to $20-25B, supported by scale economies and reduced production costs. Intel could respond by giving more aggressive discounts, but this breakthrough has been a decade long of $AMD R&D, or rethinking chiplet design, a complete new approach. "Venice's" lead in AI inference and efficiency is challenging to match. Broader Industry: Other hyperscalers ( Amazon Web Services , GCP) and enterprises will follow Azure's lead, standardizing EPYC technology and pressuring Intel further. This could lead to a broader industry shift towards AMD, enhancing its ecosystem and bargaining power. Conclusion: The strategic adoption of AMD's 6th Generation EPYC "Venice" processors by Microsoft Azure in 2026 marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of cloud computing, particularly for AI inference capabilities. "Venice's" groundbreaking chiplet design, offering a 35x performance uplift for AI inference tasks, a 50% reduction in power consumption, and unparalleled scalability, positions Azure to leapfrog its competitors in the race for AI dominance. This technical superiority, combined with significant cost savings potentially $20-30B annually in operational expenses; aligns perfectly with Microsoft's ambitions to capture the $100B+ Revenue AI opportunity by 2026. The shift to 50% x86 market share for AMD within Azure is not merely a technical transition but a strategic realignment that redefines the competitive landscape. Historically, Microsoft's partnership with AMD has evolved from niche deployments to a core component of Azure's infrastructure, and "Venice" accelerates this trend. The 30-35% AMD EPYC share in 2025 is expected to double, driven by new VM families like C4D and H4D, which will dominate AI-intensive and HPC workloads. This migration is incentivized by "Venice's" efficiency gains, reducing dependency on Intel and Nvidia, and enhancing Azure's sustainability profile. Not Financial Advice!

Mike

141,018 views • 10 months ago

Sea Levels Not Surging Despite Years Of Climate Activists And Corporate Media Freaking Out, Study Finds | Audrey Streb, Daily Caller News Foundation One recent study compiling sea level rise data shows oceans are not surging as much as the scientific world previously projected and corporate media has repeatedly sounded the alarm over. The Journal of Marine Science and Engineering published the peer-reviewed study on Aug. 27, authored by Dutch engineering consultant Hessel G. Voortman and independent researcher Rob De Vos. The study concluded that the average rate of sea level rise in 2020 was well below other widely cited analyses, and that when projections were compared with local data, there was little evidence climate change was driving the acceleration seen in a few regions — a finding energy policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation challenges mainstream climate change orthodoxy. “Overall, this study indicates that in most places, sea levels are not rising unusually quickly. In the relatively few locations where sea levels are rising faster than average, the cause is almost certainly local factors such as land subsidence or ground compaction,” Sterling Burnett, director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute, told the DCNF. “Global sea levels are currently rising more slowly than they have for much of the time since the last ice age ended — a period during which seas rose more than 400 feet. Any possible increase in the recent rate of rise compared with the past century is small, within the margin of error, and not outside historical patterns.” Though the report doesn’t account for sea level rise everywhere, Voortman told journalist Michael Shellenberger on Tuesday that he was surprised no one had compiled such a study before, noting it is the first to compare projections with recorded local data from the past century. The two data sets the researchers drew from did have some gaps, which meant that most sections in the world with usable data were in the Northern Hemisphere, with several of the “selected stations” spanning North America, Europe and Japan. Gaps in the data included regions around Australia, the northeast of Latin America, East Asia and most of Africa. “The average rate of sea level rise in 2020 is (only) around 1.5 mm/year (15 cm per century)” Voortman said Tuesday. “This is significantly lower than the 3 to 4 mm/year often reported by climate scientists in scientific literature and the media.” The report notes that in the data sets the researchers used, “approximately 95% of the suitable locations show no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise,” and that regions that did see a spike in sea level likely “local, non-climatic phenomena are a plausible cause of the accelerated sea level rise observed at the remaining 5% of the suitable locations.” “It is crazy that it had not been done. … I started doing this research in 2021 by doing the literature review. ‘Who has done the comparison of the projections with the observations?’ And there were none,” Voortman said Tuesday. “I had to do a lot of programming and automate data imports and data management. I organized it by using databases so that I really knew what I was doing. It was very structured because I was dealing with 150,000 locations and, on average, 100 years of data. That made one and a half million lines of data. I found myself for days working on things that I felt, ‘This is more computer science than civil engineering.'” Steve Milloy, senior fellow at the Energy & Environment Legal Institute, told the DCNF that “there are a lot of additional factors that can affect tide gauge measurements including geological changes, groundwater withdrawal, and land use. But climate alarmists falsely chalk up all changes to polar ice melting caused by emissions-driven ‘global warming.'” A few other studies have been published of late that also challenge climate change hysteria, with one widely reported study showing that Arctic Sea ice melting has slowed in the last 20 years. Another recent report found that a 2024 climate change study — heavily cited by legacy media for projecting up to $38 trillion in global damages by 2050 — relied on inaccurate data.
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Sea Levels Not Surging Despite Years Of Climate Activists And Corporate Media Freaking Out, Study Finds | Audrey Streb, Daily Caller News Foundation One recent study compiling sea level rise data shows oceans are not surging as much as the scientific world previously projected and corporate media has repeatedly sounded the alarm over. The Journal of Marine Science and Engineering published the peer-reviewed study on Aug. 27, authored by Dutch engineering consultant Hessel G. Voortman and independent researcher Rob De Vos. The study concluded that the average rate of sea level rise in 2020 was well below other widely cited analyses, and that when projections were compared with local data, there was little evidence climate change was driving the acceleration seen in a few regions — a finding energy policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation challenges mainstream climate change orthodoxy. “Overall, this study indicates that in most places, sea levels are not rising unusually quickly. In the relatively few locations where sea levels are rising faster than average, the cause is almost certainly local factors such as land subsidence or ground compaction,” Sterling Burnett, director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute, told the DCNF. “Global sea levels are currently rising more slowly than they have for much of the time since the last ice age ended — a period during which seas rose more than 400 feet. Any possible increase in the recent rate of rise compared with the past century is small, within the margin of error, and not outside historical patterns.” Though the report doesn’t account for sea level rise everywhere, Voortman told journalist Michael Shellenberger on Tuesday that he was surprised no one had compiled such a study before, noting it is the first to compare projections with recorded local data from the past century. The two data sets the researchers drew from did have some gaps, which meant that most sections in the world with usable data were in the Northern Hemisphere, with several of the “selected stations” spanning North America, Europe and Japan. Gaps in the data included regions around Australia, the northeast of Latin America, East Asia and most of Africa. “The average rate of sea level rise in 2020 is (only) around 1.5 mm/year (15 cm per century)” Voortman said Tuesday. “This is significantly lower than the 3 to 4 mm/year often reported by climate scientists in scientific literature and the media.” The report notes that in the data sets the researchers used, “approximately 95% of the suitable locations show no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise,” and that regions that did see a spike in sea level likely “local, non-climatic phenomena are a plausible cause of the accelerated sea level rise observed at the remaining 5% of the suitable locations.” “It is crazy that it had not been done. … I started doing this research in 2021 by doing the literature review. ‘Who has done the comparison of the projections with the observations?’ And there were none,” Voortman said Tuesday. “I had to do a lot of programming and automate data imports and data management. I organized it by using databases so that I really knew what I was doing. It was very structured because I was dealing with 150,000 locations and, on average, 100 years of data. That made one and a half million lines of data. I found myself for days working on things that I felt, ‘This is more computer science than civil engineering.'” Steve Milloy, senior fellow at the Energy & Environment Legal Institute, told the DCNF that “there are a lot of additional factors that can affect tide gauge measurements including geological changes, groundwater withdrawal, and land use. But climate alarmists falsely chalk up all changes to polar ice melting caused by emissions-driven ‘global warming.'” A few other studies have been published of late that also challenge climate change hysteria, with one widely reported study showing that Arctic Sea ice melting has slowed in the last 20 years. Another recent report found that a 2024 climate change study — heavily cited by legacy media for projecting up to $38 trillion in global damages by 2050 — relied on inaccurate data.

Owen Gregorian

105,142 views • 11 months ago

My fellow Kenyans, Many of you have seen my recent posts about the deadly cancer that is corruption in our country. In my last post, I tried to paint a picture of the disconnect between our potential as a country and the economic circumstances we find ourselves in today, and the connection between corruption and the incalculable pain and suffering and cruelty that is meted out every single day to the most vulnerable among us by thieves operating out of public office. And after covering the goings-on in Mandera County, I told you that in my honest opinion, our governments exist to cater for the filthy-rich lifestyles of the vilest and most corrupt among us, at the expense of everyone else. I received tremendous support from all of you, for speaking on behalf of so many struggling Kenyans who don’t have a voice, or the audience necessary to spark the much-needed discussion about where we are heading as a country. But even with all that support, I have received messages asking me to be careful. One compatriot told me: “prepare to be relentlessly pursued, threatened, enticed, guilt-tripped, and gas-lit”. This is from a someone who knows how our government operates, and how it uses violence and its monopoly on power to silence those who question why politicians are stealing so much. I am not naive about the dangers of speaking up and calling out thieves who control state machinery, and who possess the ability to shut me up in a few seconds. But I will tell you why we CAN NOT and MUST NOT keep quiet. In November of 2023, I stumbled upon the story of a young man from Turkana, Calvin Esekon Esewit , who, despite scoring an A-, and getting an acceptance into medical school, spent two years not knowing whether his dreams of becoming a doctor would ever come true. I was moved by that story in a way that I can never adequately explain. I could not understand how it is possible that, in our country, a young man who appears to be every parent’s dream child can spend two years in limbo while we as a country possess the ability to invest in our best and brightest. And so, I spent weeks trying to chase down Calvin to see how I could help him attend college. After a lot of searching, I finally found Calvin, and by this time he had managed to get some help and is now in college. While this story has a great ending, it did not to be this way. And we know that the number of cases that end like this, with some success, are a small fraction of those ones which end tragically, with broken dreams. This is what happens when corruption consumes anything and everything in a country. It destroys lives. See attached video to learn about Calvin's story. I tell you all this story because it provides context to today's topic. For one story like this one that you see on the news, there are millions that never make the news. But they are real situations, nonetheless. There are millions of your compatriots who are devastated by this killer cancer of corruption that is perpetuated by people that you and I have put into public office ostensibly to improve our lives. They go into these offices and abuse the trust you bestowed upon them and deny you and everyone else a decent opportunity in life. You see, Calvin and millions of other victims of this shameless level of corruption and plunder have no voice, and no real ability to look the thieves that are destroying lives and generations of Kenyans in eye and tell them to stop this unbearable pain and the cruelty. This is the reason I embarked on this journey to attempt to expose this shameful situation. Watch the attached video of Calvin’s situation, and I am sure that you will agree that the millions of Calvins in our country need a voice, NO MATTER THE RISK. The thieves that are destroying the futures of millions of children just so they can have beachside homes in Miami, Dubai and other places count on the idea that most people will fear for their lives, and therefore not speak up. They count on the growing apathy in the Kenyan psyche. But we cannot give in to that. We cannot cower to thieves. We must look them straight in the eye and tell them that they MUST STOP. If we don't, our children and their children are guaranteed the same level of cruelty. And so with that, today I want to talk about the utterly insane crime scene that is Turkana County. I don’t know any other way to describe it, other than, it is a “shit-show”. Just follow along, and let me know if you disagree. As I did in my previous commentary, I will ask you to indulge me a little bit, and allow me to use a couple of pictures, because pictures speak louder than a thousand words. The first picture shows the state-of-the art County Government offices, that the County Government of Turkana decided to invest an ungodly amount of money on. Close to a billion shillings. The second picture is a classroom in session. In Turkana County. These two realities are occurring in parallel in the same county, at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just tell you that I do not go out of my way to find bad news. I want stories that would help re-affirm our belief in the fundamental decency of human beings. When I find good news as I review these Counties’ decisions and how they behave with our resources, I will be the first one to report it to you. But I don’t have any good news today. I have bad news. If you read my commentary yesterday and were offended by what you saw, I am afraid you might not make it to the end of this article, because what you will hear will be quite shocking. The cancer of corruption, particularly at the County Government level, is worse than your wildest imagination. And so, as I like to do, I like to start off by putting some numbers on the table for us to use as reference points. Bear in my that all the information I put in this article is publicly available. Nothing came to me through a whistle blower. The first number is KSH 100 Billion. With a B. In the last decade or so, you and I, through the National Government, has sent over KSH 100 billion to Turkana County. To support recurrent expenditure, and development. For example, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, we sent KSH 12.6 billion. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, we sent KSH 11.4 billion. And on and on and on. The second number is 1 million. This is the population of Turkana County. The third number is KSH 18.4 billion. This was Turkana County’s budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The fourth number is KSH 190 million. This was the amount of money that Turkana County was able to generate on its own accord within the county, from all its investments and other activities in the period in question. This number is an important proxy, in my view, for the value of the county’s economic prospects for the foreseeable future, and to people that are not driven by greed and corruption, would be an important consideration when they are thinking about how and where to deploy your money as taxpayers. If you are doing the math, Turkana County, for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was only able to raise 1% of the funds needed to keep the lights on. 99% came from you and I, and a tiny amount from grants. The next number is KSH 129, 040. This is the average ANNUAL [emphasis added] income of a resident of Turkana County ( Keep that number in mind when we are discussing the massive theft of public funds by Turkana County leaders. The next number is 80%. 80% of the residents of Turkana County live below the poverty line. They have a really difficult time putting food on the table. ( The next number is KSH 12 Million. This is the basic salary of the Governor of Turkana County before other benefits that, as I explained yesterday, can often double the salary. Remember the “housing allowance”, the “hardship allowance”, the “commuter allowance”, the “risk allowance”, the “extraneous allowance”, etc.? Remember that? I still cannot figure out, for the life of me, what “extraneous” means in the context of County business, but we don’t time to dwell on this. The next number is 93. The Governor of Turkana County makes 93 times the average Turkana County resident’s annual income. 93 times! The next number is 82%. This was the percentage of people that were illiterate in Turkana County in 2013 ( Could not read or write. A point to note about the above literacy figure. Ten years later, and despite over KSH 100 billion is spent in Turkana County, including many billions for education, that literacy rate HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT. Only 20% of the population can read or write today. ( KSH 829 million. This is how much it cost to build the County Government offices. Yes, the ones shown in the first picture. KSH 120 million. The County Government decided that it was prudent to pay a contractor KSH 120 million to construct the Governor’s personal residence. Get this, even after this payment, no construction took place. The money was stolen. All of it. KSH 90 Million. This is the amount that the County Government paid to another contractor, to build the Governor a mansion, having previously lost KSH 120 million. So, the tally for the Governor’s residence now stands at KSH 210 million. Never mind that the limit allowed by law is KSH 45 million. KSH 5 billion. In the last days of his term in office, an outgoing Governor of Turkana, Koli Nanok, EGH. , sought to inflate pending bills by adding KSH 5 billion so that it can be paid to his criminal cartel. KSH 5 billion. We have our key numbers, ladies and gentlemen, so let us discuss. So, we have a county that is dead last in literacy, and in the top 2 of the poorest counties in the republic. Only 20% of the population can read. The Governor earns 92 times the average citizen. The Governor lives in a house that cost over KSH 200 million. When he leaves his house in the morning, he goes to his office that cost KSH 829 million. And this is all happening when 80% of the County residents struggle to put food on the table. Those are the facts, and they are not in dispute. During the same time, the County Government geniuses decide to build the Speaker of the County Assembly a house. And a home office, and a garage. The house was initially estimated to cost KSH 75 million. But due to circumstances that not a soul in the government could explain to auditors, the contract expired before the house was completed, and the County Government found a new contractor to complete the job for an additional KSH 29 million. But this palace in the jungle worth apparently worth over KSH 100 million in Turkana County was not enough. The County proceeded to build the Speaker a guest house for another KSH 19 million, and a few other amenities, and so the whole cost went to KSH 276 million! The legal limit for a Speaker’s house is KSH 35 million, and they spent close to KSH 130 million just for one residence. By this time, I am sure you are getting tired of these obscene numbers. You and I work, and pay taxes. Nobody pays you 92 times the income your average neighbor is making. And for sure nobody will drop KSH 100 million to build you a house. These are the perks of working in government in a poor country. Go figure. And so, as a country, we need to answer for ourselves the question I posed yesterday, which is, what is the point of government? What is its role in our lives. If this level of criminality and pillaging can occur in our country in the midst of so much poverty, questioning the need for government is a totally valid question. I said in my last post that, when the average citizen looks at the thug on the street and the government, and is unable to discern any meaningful difference between them, that society from that point on is on its journey to becoming a failed state. A journey to anarchy. Over the last two months or so, Kenyans have been shouting at the top of their lungs, begging for their government to listen. To hear them out. Kenyans have asked that their government stop this unbelievable level of plunder. Dozens of Kenyans have died, thousands injured, and many more are missing today. To this day, the people that govern us continue to use the power of the gun to subdue Kenyans, until they can take everything in their sight. And so, as a society, we all have to ask whether today there is any difference between the thug on the street and our governments. Every Kenyan will have to answer this question for themselves. And before answering this question, everyone needs to remember the many Calvins in our society. Smart, upright children whose only crime is to be born in an unforgiving, lawless, and corrupt purgatory that is Kenya today. For myself, I have concluded that there is no difference between the thug on the street and our governments, county and national alike. If you can see any meaningful difference, let me know. I am willing to listen. So despite over KSH 100 billion in money sent to Turkana County, there is almost no measurable improvement in people’s life today. None. And it makes sense, when you look at how that money is spent. I want you to forget for a second the obscene obsession by the County Government with spending ungodly amounts of money on themselves. The houses, etc. If you step back and look at how the government is actually spending the hard-earned money on other things, you will be depressed. I am telling you that I wept three times in the middle of the night trying to make sense of this crazy situation in Turkana County. Three times. I have never imagined that human beings can be so greedy and cold-blooded. Think about this: In the couple of years I reviewed, the County spent around KSH 400 million annually in “tourism” initiatives, including marketing, and apparently upgrading certain facilities. KSH 400 million for tourism. In Turkana County. In 1 year. KSH 400 million per year in marketing and other money pits. The government’s own website says that the county gets around 3000 visitors per month. Around 36,000 per year. That’s them saying that, on their website. Are you curious to know the return on that KSH 400 million investment? I have an answer for you. Remember that I told you that the County has never raised more than KSH 200 million in a year within the county, despite its KSH 18.4 billion budget? Let me walk you through the breakdown of the absolutely embarrassing shit-show that is the County Government’s “own source revenue” operations. In 2022-2023, the County Government collected KSH 190 million locally against their KSH 18.4 billion budget. 1% of the budget. Remember, there is absolutely no requirement on the County to cut costs, or achieve certain local revenue targets today. So they raised KSH 45 million in single business permits, KSH 72 million in CESS, KSH 8 million in market fee, KSH 9 million in “slaughter fees”. And then finally, there is the return on the tourism investment that you were looking for. A whopping KSH 209, 000 in “park fees”. KSH 209,000 in fees, after investing KSH 400 million. And so, take this as an example and extrapolate it across the entire budget, and you can see how one can spend KSH 100 billion and get NOTHING in return. You don’t need to be a genius to see the absurdity of this situation. Let me explain using an example that should illustrate the utter dimwittedness of this situation. Remember the KSH 100 billion sent to Turkana by you and me? Part of this amount is supposed to be for “service delivery”, or “recurrent expenditure”. Usually about 70% of the budget. The balance, 30%, is designed to go to development projects. With that in mind, from KSH 100 billion, the County apparently has made KSH 30 billion worth of investments, right? 30% of the KSH 100 billion. Now, if you employed someone to run a business for you, and they asked you to invest KSH 30 billion, which is no small fortune, at some point you would have to start seeing returns, right? That’s common sense, isn’t it? So, when we look at the revenues streams that make up this paltry sum of KSH 190 million, and see things like “slaughter fees’ and “market fees”, what does it tell you? It tells me there is no real “development” happening in that county. Trust me, if you had real development totaling KSH 30 billion, you would have corporate taxes in the hundreds of millions or billions, a booming real estate market, rising wages and standards of living, etc., low unemployment, etc. You would not have 80% of the people living hand-to mouth, and a County Government that can not afford to support itself for 5 days out of the year that has 365 days! We do not have enough time, trust me, to deal with the shit-show that is Turkana County. Dealing with that mess would require a forensic team. I will just highlight a few of other “in your-face” type of theft of public funds, and then conclude my submission. A government that has a budget of KSH 18.4 billion annually, and which has never raised more than 1% of its budget had the wisdom to do the following with your money: · Spend KSH 222 million on a project building something that NOBODY uses. You got that right. They spent KSH 222 million on a facility that NOBODY uses. KSH 222 million gone to waste, in a county that is dead last in pretty much all measures of human progress. · Remember the County Government offices that cost KSH 829 million? The County spent KSH 82 million on “air-conditioning” for that building. · Despite the County Spending hundreds of millions for the top three officers of the County, the Governor and his Deputy, in the 2022-2023 year, illegally charged the county (you and I) KSH 2.2 million in housing allowance! · Built two facilities for KSH 16 million, that were completed, but NOBODY uses them. · Entered into a contract for the construction of a plastic use facility for KSH 13 million in 2021. The contractor gets paid KSH 4.9 million, and has never been seen since. · Paid out KSH 62 million in salaries that were not supportable in just one year. They could not point to anybody and say, that is who we paid. · Paid out KSH 27 million in legal fees that nobody could say what they related to. And the County’s Legal Advisor, who, in 2022-2023, had a budget of KSH 123 million, apparently did not know anything about it! · Had an outstanding bill at Kenya Revenue Authority in the amount of KSH 486 million, that did not show up on the County Government’s financial statements. Think about that. KSH 486 million owned to the Kenya Revenue Authority, and that liability is not on the financial statements! This only means that someone took those funds for themselves, which is why the liability would be missing from the county’s books. · Could not account for KSH 367 million in expenditures for 2022-2023. KSH 367 million, in unexplained expenses. · Awarded a contract worth over KSH 200 million to a bidder with no bank statement, against the law. This contract was entered into and approved before the statutory time after the bidding process lapsed. Someone was in a hurry to get paid. KSH 200 million, illegally awarded to a bidder who did not have a 6-month bank statement. · Apparently purchased KSH 1.5 billion in assets in 2022-2023, but kept no records of the said assets. For this reason, NOBODY can verify where these assets are located. KSH 1.5 billion. Let me just say this. In my last article, the most common critique was that it was too long. Too many words. I did not intend to make another long article. Trust me when I tell you this, we do not have the time to detail half of the problems in Turkana County. For just 1 year! We do not. Now, you recall my point about how societies descend to madness and anarchy. In our country today, our leaders are accusing those of us who are agitating for honest and transparent governance of being traitors to the country. They call us anarchists, criminals, and merchants of chaos. They are questioning our patriotism. You have all seen the government and its horde of propagandists threatening the Ford Foundation and others because they may have helped civil society keep the lights on, and investigative journalists to have the capacity to continue to do the Lord’s work of investigating criminality in government. As though citizens are so dumb and ignorant, that they cannot see what is going on. The reason why millions of Calvins in this country will never graduate from college and earn a decent living is not because of the Ford Foundation. No. It is because of the thieves we have in office today, like the ones in Turkana County. In this post, I copy our leaders, the President and his deputy. I copy them because I want them to help Kenyans understand the following conundrum, about crime and criminals. There is nothing so special or peculiar about criminals or where they pop up. There are criminals in the US, Canada, France, and other places. Just like we have criminals in Kenya. The difference between banana republics and failed states, and civilized societies, is WHAT we do to and about criminals. In civilized societies, criminals are prosecuted and punished heavily. They are shunned. In some places, those charged with serious crimes such as corruption are executed. These are societies that are committed to sending the message that corruption, which robs citizens of their rights, is not acceptable. And they demonstrate this commitment by heavily punishing those who steal from the most vulnerable in society. In Kenya, we see the opposite. Criminals are exalted. They are promoted and embraced in government. It was just last week that the president unveiled his nominees for his Cabinet. Among them, are the likes of Hassan Ali Joho, EGH. , @GovWOparanya , and Davis Chirchir, ALL people who have been accused or charged with massive corruption against Kenyans. And am sure you remember that I mentioned Koli Nanok, EGH. , the man who tried to steal KSH 5 billion in his last days in office. Would you believe it if I told you that he works in government, at State House? He plunded billions of your money, got no measurable improvement in the lives of his subjects, and now has a government job in State House. Let that sink in. And so, the question is, how is it that in a country of 55 million people, with thousands of highly qualified people who have never ever stolen from Kenyans, he ends up with the criminals and thieves in the government, despite the fact that their crimes are in the public domain? How is this possible? Is it possible that these thieves possess a certain unique ability to run government, save Kenyans billions, and solve problems in a way that the president performs a cost-benefit analysis, and the benefits outweigh the costs of their theft? If not, what message does it send to Kenyans, when their own president puts into office known thieves? I think that is a fair question, don’t you? Dr. Ekuru Aukot Rigathi Gachagua William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Citizen TV Kenya Nation Breaking News TI-Kenya CNN County Government of Turkana
3:09

My fellow Kenyans, Many of you have seen my recent posts about the deadly cancer that is corruption in our country. In my last post, I tried to paint a picture of the disconnect between our potential as a country and the economic circumstances we find ourselves in today, and the connection between corruption and the incalculable pain and suffering and cruelty that is meted out every single day to the most vulnerable among us by thieves operating out of public office. And after covering the goings-on in Mandera County, I told you that in my honest opinion, our governments exist to cater for the filthy-rich lifestyles of the vilest and most corrupt among us, at the expense of everyone else. I received tremendous support from all of you, for speaking on behalf of so many struggling Kenyans who don’t have a voice, or the audience necessary to spark the much-needed discussion about where we are heading as a country. But even with all that support, I have received messages asking me to be careful. One compatriot told me: “prepare to be relentlessly pursued, threatened, enticed, guilt-tripped, and gas-lit”. This is from a someone who knows how our government operates, and how it uses violence and its monopoly on power to silence those who question why politicians are stealing so much. I am not naive about the dangers of speaking up and calling out thieves who control state machinery, and who possess the ability to shut me up in a few seconds. But I will tell you why we CAN NOT and MUST NOT keep quiet. In November of 2023, I stumbled upon the story of a young man from Turkana, Calvin Esekon Esewit , who, despite scoring an A-, and getting an acceptance into medical school, spent two years not knowing whether his dreams of becoming a doctor would ever come true. I was moved by that story in a way that I can never adequately explain. I could not understand how it is possible that, in our country, a young man who appears to be every parent’s dream child can spend two years in limbo while we as a country possess the ability to invest in our best and brightest. And so, I spent weeks trying to chase down Calvin to see how I could help him attend college. After a lot of searching, I finally found Calvin, and by this time he had managed to get some help and is now in college. While this story has a great ending, it did not to be this way. And we know that the number of cases that end like this, with some success, are a small fraction of those ones which end tragically, with broken dreams. This is what happens when corruption consumes anything and everything in a country. It destroys lives. See attached video to learn about Calvin's story. I tell you all this story because it provides context to today's topic. For one story like this one that you see on the news, there are millions that never make the news. But they are real situations, nonetheless. There are millions of your compatriots who are devastated by this killer cancer of corruption that is perpetuated by people that you and I have put into public office ostensibly to improve our lives. They go into these offices and abuse the trust you bestowed upon them and deny you and everyone else a decent opportunity in life. You see, Calvin and millions of other victims of this shameless level of corruption and plunder have no voice, and no real ability to look the thieves that are destroying lives and generations of Kenyans in eye and tell them to stop this unbearable pain and the cruelty. This is the reason I embarked on this journey to attempt to expose this shameful situation. Watch the attached video of Calvin’s situation, and I am sure that you will agree that the millions of Calvins in our country need a voice, NO MATTER THE RISK. The thieves that are destroying the futures of millions of children just so they can have beachside homes in Miami, Dubai and other places count on the idea that most people will fear for their lives, and therefore not speak up. They count on the growing apathy in the Kenyan psyche. But we cannot give in to that. We cannot cower to thieves. We must look them straight in the eye and tell them that they MUST STOP. If we don't, our children and their children are guaranteed the same level of cruelty. And so with that, today I want to talk about the utterly insane crime scene that is Turkana County. I don’t know any other way to describe it, other than, it is a “shit-show”. Just follow along, and let me know if you disagree. As I did in my previous commentary, I will ask you to indulge me a little bit, and allow me to use a couple of pictures, because pictures speak louder than a thousand words. The first picture shows the state-of-the art County Government offices, that the County Government of Turkana decided to invest an ungodly amount of money on. Close to a billion shillings. The second picture is a classroom in session. In Turkana County. These two realities are occurring in parallel in the same county, at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just tell you that I do not go out of my way to find bad news. I want stories that would help re-affirm our belief in the fundamental decency of human beings. When I find good news as I review these Counties’ decisions and how they behave with our resources, I will be the first one to report it to you. But I don’t have any good news today. I have bad news. If you read my commentary yesterday and were offended by what you saw, I am afraid you might not make it to the end of this article, because what you will hear will be quite shocking. The cancer of corruption, particularly at the County Government level, is worse than your wildest imagination. And so, as I like to do, I like to start off by putting some numbers on the table for us to use as reference points. Bear in my that all the information I put in this article is publicly available. Nothing came to me through a whistle blower. The first number is KSH 100 Billion. With a B. In the last decade or so, you and I, through the National Government, has sent over KSH 100 billion to Turkana County. To support recurrent expenditure, and development. For example, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, we sent KSH 12.6 billion. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, we sent KSH 11.4 billion. And on and on and on. The second number is 1 million. This is the population of Turkana County. The third number is KSH 18.4 billion. This was Turkana County’s budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The fourth number is KSH 190 million. This was the amount of money that Turkana County was able to generate on its own accord within the county, from all its investments and other activities in the period in question. This number is an important proxy, in my view, for the value of the county’s economic prospects for the foreseeable future, and to people that are not driven by greed and corruption, would be an important consideration when they are thinking about how and where to deploy your money as taxpayers. If you are doing the math, Turkana County, for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was only able to raise 1% of the funds needed to keep the lights on. 99% came from you and I, and a tiny amount from grants. The next number is KSH 129, 040. This is the average ANNUAL [emphasis added] income of a resident of Turkana County ( Keep that number in mind when we are discussing the massive theft of public funds by Turkana County leaders. The next number is 80%. 80% of the residents of Turkana County live below the poverty line. They have a really difficult time putting food on the table. ( The next number is KSH 12 Million. This is the basic salary of the Governor of Turkana County before other benefits that, as I explained yesterday, can often double the salary. Remember the “housing allowance”, the “hardship allowance”, the “commuter allowance”, the “risk allowance”, the “extraneous allowance”, etc.? Remember that? I still cannot figure out, for the life of me, what “extraneous” means in the context of County business, but we don’t time to dwell on this. The next number is 93. The Governor of Turkana County makes 93 times the average Turkana County resident’s annual income. 93 times! The next number is 82%. This was the percentage of people that were illiterate in Turkana County in 2013 ( Could not read or write. A point to note about the above literacy figure. Ten years later, and despite over KSH 100 billion is spent in Turkana County, including many billions for education, that literacy rate HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT. Only 20% of the population can read or write today. ( KSH 829 million. This is how much it cost to build the County Government offices. Yes, the ones shown in the first picture. KSH 120 million. The County Government decided that it was prudent to pay a contractor KSH 120 million to construct the Governor’s personal residence. Get this, even after this payment, no construction took place. The money was stolen. All of it. KSH 90 Million. This is the amount that the County Government paid to another contractor, to build the Governor a mansion, having previously lost KSH 120 million. So, the tally for the Governor’s residence now stands at KSH 210 million. Never mind that the limit allowed by law is KSH 45 million. KSH 5 billion. In the last days of his term in office, an outgoing Governor of Turkana, Koli Nanok, EGH. , sought to inflate pending bills by adding KSH 5 billion so that it can be paid to his criminal cartel. KSH 5 billion. We have our key numbers, ladies and gentlemen, so let us discuss. So, we have a county that is dead last in literacy, and in the top 2 of the poorest counties in the republic. Only 20% of the population can read. The Governor earns 92 times the average citizen. The Governor lives in a house that cost over KSH 200 million. When he leaves his house in the morning, he goes to his office that cost KSH 829 million. And this is all happening when 80% of the County residents struggle to put food on the table. Those are the facts, and they are not in dispute. During the same time, the County Government geniuses decide to build the Speaker of the County Assembly a house. And a home office, and a garage. The house was initially estimated to cost KSH 75 million. But due to circumstances that not a soul in the government could explain to auditors, the contract expired before the house was completed, and the County Government found a new contractor to complete the job for an additional KSH 29 million. But this palace in the jungle worth apparently worth over KSH 100 million in Turkana County was not enough. The County proceeded to build the Speaker a guest house for another KSH 19 million, and a few other amenities, and so the whole cost went to KSH 276 million! The legal limit for a Speaker’s house is KSH 35 million, and they spent close to KSH 130 million just for one residence. By this time, I am sure you are getting tired of these obscene numbers. You and I work, and pay taxes. Nobody pays you 92 times the income your average neighbor is making. And for sure nobody will drop KSH 100 million to build you a house. These are the perks of working in government in a poor country. Go figure. And so, as a country, we need to answer for ourselves the question I posed yesterday, which is, what is the point of government? What is its role in our lives. If this level of criminality and pillaging can occur in our country in the midst of so much poverty, questioning the need for government is a totally valid question. I said in my last post that, when the average citizen looks at the thug on the street and the government, and is unable to discern any meaningful difference between them, that society from that point on is on its journey to becoming a failed state. A journey to anarchy. Over the last two months or so, Kenyans have been shouting at the top of their lungs, begging for their government to listen. To hear them out. Kenyans have asked that their government stop this unbelievable level of plunder. Dozens of Kenyans have died, thousands injured, and many more are missing today. To this day, the people that govern us continue to use the power of the gun to subdue Kenyans, until they can take everything in their sight. And so, as a society, we all have to ask whether today there is any difference between the thug on the street and our governments. Every Kenyan will have to answer this question for themselves. And before answering this question, everyone needs to remember the many Calvins in our society. Smart, upright children whose only crime is to be born in an unforgiving, lawless, and corrupt purgatory that is Kenya today. For myself, I have concluded that there is no difference between the thug on the street and our governments, county and national alike. If you can see any meaningful difference, let me know. I am willing to listen. So despite over KSH 100 billion in money sent to Turkana County, there is almost no measurable improvement in people’s life today. None. And it makes sense, when you look at how that money is spent. I want you to forget for a second the obscene obsession by the County Government with spending ungodly amounts of money on themselves. The houses, etc. If you step back and look at how the government is actually spending the hard-earned money on other things, you will be depressed. I am telling you that I wept three times in the middle of the night trying to make sense of this crazy situation in Turkana County. Three times. I have never imagined that human beings can be so greedy and cold-blooded. Think about this: In the couple of years I reviewed, the County spent around KSH 400 million annually in “tourism” initiatives, including marketing, and apparently upgrading certain facilities. KSH 400 million for tourism. In Turkana County. In 1 year. KSH 400 million per year in marketing and other money pits. The government’s own website says that the county gets around 3000 visitors per month. Around 36,000 per year. That’s them saying that, on their website. Are you curious to know the return on that KSH 400 million investment? I have an answer for you. Remember that I told you that the County has never raised more than KSH 200 million in a year within the county, despite its KSH 18.4 billion budget? Let me walk you through the breakdown of the absolutely embarrassing shit-show that is the County Government’s “own source revenue” operations. In 2022-2023, the County Government collected KSH 190 million locally against their KSH 18.4 billion budget. 1% of the budget. Remember, there is absolutely no requirement on the County to cut costs, or achieve certain local revenue targets today. So they raised KSH 45 million in single business permits, KSH 72 million in CESS, KSH 8 million in market fee, KSH 9 million in “slaughter fees”. And then finally, there is the return on the tourism investment that you were looking for. A whopping KSH 209, 000 in “park fees”. KSH 209,000 in fees, after investing KSH 400 million. And so, take this as an example and extrapolate it across the entire budget, and you can see how one can spend KSH 100 billion and get NOTHING in return. You don’t need to be a genius to see the absurdity of this situation. Let me explain using an example that should illustrate the utter dimwittedness of this situation. Remember the KSH 100 billion sent to Turkana by you and me? Part of this amount is supposed to be for “service delivery”, or “recurrent expenditure”. Usually about 70% of the budget. The balance, 30%, is designed to go to development projects. With that in mind, from KSH 100 billion, the County apparently has made KSH 30 billion worth of investments, right? 30% of the KSH 100 billion. Now, if you employed someone to run a business for you, and they asked you to invest KSH 30 billion, which is no small fortune, at some point you would have to start seeing returns, right? That’s common sense, isn’t it? So, when we look at the revenues streams that make up this paltry sum of KSH 190 million, and see things like “slaughter fees’ and “market fees”, what does it tell you? It tells me there is no real “development” happening in that county. Trust me, if you had real development totaling KSH 30 billion, you would have corporate taxes in the hundreds of millions or billions, a booming real estate market, rising wages and standards of living, etc., low unemployment, etc. You would not have 80% of the people living hand-to mouth, and a County Government that can not afford to support itself for 5 days out of the year that has 365 days! We do not have enough time, trust me, to deal with the shit-show that is Turkana County. Dealing with that mess would require a forensic team. I will just highlight a few of other “in your-face” type of theft of public funds, and then conclude my submission. A government that has a budget of KSH 18.4 billion annually, and which has never raised more than 1% of its budget had the wisdom to do the following with your money: · Spend KSH 222 million on a project building something that NOBODY uses. You got that right. They spent KSH 222 million on a facility that NOBODY uses. KSH 222 million gone to waste, in a county that is dead last in pretty much all measures of human progress. · Remember the County Government offices that cost KSH 829 million? The County spent KSH 82 million on “air-conditioning” for that building. · Despite the County Spending hundreds of millions for the top three officers of the County, the Governor and his Deputy, in the 2022-2023 year, illegally charged the county (you and I) KSH 2.2 million in housing allowance! · Built two facilities for KSH 16 million, that were completed, but NOBODY uses them. · Entered into a contract for the construction of a plastic use facility for KSH 13 million in 2021. The contractor gets paid KSH 4.9 million, and has never been seen since. · Paid out KSH 62 million in salaries that were not supportable in just one year. They could not point to anybody and say, that is who we paid. · Paid out KSH 27 million in legal fees that nobody could say what they related to. And the County’s Legal Advisor, who, in 2022-2023, had a budget of KSH 123 million, apparently did not know anything about it! · Had an outstanding bill at Kenya Revenue Authority in the amount of KSH 486 million, that did not show up on the County Government’s financial statements. Think about that. KSH 486 million owned to the Kenya Revenue Authority, and that liability is not on the financial statements! This only means that someone took those funds for themselves, which is why the liability would be missing from the county’s books. · Could not account for KSH 367 million in expenditures for 2022-2023. KSH 367 million, in unexplained expenses. · Awarded a contract worth over KSH 200 million to a bidder with no bank statement, against the law. This contract was entered into and approved before the statutory time after the bidding process lapsed. Someone was in a hurry to get paid. KSH 200 million, illegally awarded to a bidder who did not have a 6-month bank statement. · Apparently purchased KSH 1.5 billion in assets in 2022-2023, but kept no records of the said assets. For this reason, NOBODY can verify where these assets are located. KSH 1.5 billion. Let me just say this. In my last article, the most common critique was that it was too long. Too many words. I did not intend to make another long article. Trust me when I tell you this, we do not have the time to detail half of the problems in Turkana County. For just 1 year! We do not. Now, you recall my point about how societies descend to madness and anarchy. In our country today, our leaders are accusing those of us who are agitating for honest and transparent governance of being traitors to the country. They call us anarchists, criminals, and merchants of chaos. They are questioning our patriotism. You have all seen the government and its horde of propagandists threatening the Ford Foundation and others because they may have helped civil society keep the lights on, and investigative journalists to have the capacity to continue to do the Lord’s work of investigating criminality in government. As though citizens are so dumb and ignorant, that they cannot see what is going on. The reason why millions of Calvins in this country will never graduate from college and earn a decent living is not because of the Ford Foundation. No. It is because of the thieves we have in office today, like the ones in Turkana County. In this post, I copy our leaders, the President and his deputy. I copy them because I want them to help Kenyans understand the following conundrum, about crime and criminals. There is nothing so special or peculiar about criminals or where they pop up. There are criminals in the US, Canada, France, and other places. Just like we have criminals in Kenya. The difference between banana republics and failed states, and civilized societies, is WHAT we do to and about criminals. In civilized societies, criminals are prosecuted and punished heavily. They are shunned. In some places, those charged with serious crimes such as corruption are executed. These are societies that are committed to sending the message that corruption, which robs citizens of their rights, is not acceptable. And they demonstrate this commitment by heavily punishing those who steal from the most vulnerable in society. In Kenya, we see the opposite. Criminals are exalted. They are promoted and embraced in government. It was just last week that the president unveiled his nominees for his Cabinet. Among them, are the likes of Hassan Ali Joho, EGH. , @GovWOparanya , and Davis Chirchir, ALL people who have been accused or charged with massive corruption against Kenyans. And am sure you remember that I mentioned Koli Nanok, EGH. , the man who tried to steal KSH 5 billion in his last days in office. Would you believe it if I told you that he works in government, at State House? He plunded billions of your money, got no measurable improvement in the lives of his subjects, and now has a government job in State House. Let that sink in. And so, the question is, how is it that in a country of 55 million people, with thousands of highly qualified people who have never ever stolen from Kenyans, he ends up with the criminals and thieves in the government, despite the fact that their crimes are in the public domain? How is this possible? Is it possible that these thieves possess a certain unique ability to run government, save Kenyans billions, and solve problems in a way that the president performs a cost-benefit analysis, and the benefits outweigh the costs of their theft? If not, what message does it send to Kenyans, when their own president puts into office known thieves? I think that is a fair question, don’t you? Dr. Ekuru Aukot Rigathi Gachagua William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Citizen TV Kenya Nation Breaking News TI-Kenya CNN County Government of Turkana

Bonnie Mwangi, CPA, LLM, MBA

107,519 views • 2 years ago

TOPIC # 46 DEVELOP REAL ECOSYSTEM DURING 2ND STAGE Dear Global Pioneers, Happy Saturday! Today, I recorded a ten-minute video for you. However, I understand that many of the pioneers may not understand English. So, I am writing this article to help you understand my message. ✅Summary of the 1st Currency stage work from the pioneers' community: According to the white paper, Pi will be a global currency, designed not as an asset or a traditional investment, but as a currency. Therefore, we, as the pioneers' community, need to help Pi complete its mission. The core team can only take care of the infrastructure work; the rest depends on us. This is why it's important for pioneers to understand that we have our task. Our task is not just to complete KYC and migration; it's to develop Pi as a currency. The characteristics of currency include durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply, and acceptability. Currency has five major functions: scale of value, means of circulation, means of storage, means of payment, a world settlement currency. Over the past two and a half years, our focus has been on establishing the first currency function as " scale of value" and generating at least one million GCV $314,159 data. We have received support from pioneers representing at least 120 countries. We believe there is no alternative to GCV in terms of pricing. CT’s announcement on Pi2Day indicates that we are on right track and at the forefront of OM. As a result, GCV $314,159 is aligned with Pi Network's mission and vision. I’ve noticed that many pioneers are questioning CT about the delay in KYC and migration procedures over the past two and a half years. My response is that they were awaiting GCV from pioneers. Without this support, our goal of establishing a currency would not be achievable. However, despite the recent Global GCV movement, we have not seen significant involvement from merchants in the exchange of GCV. Most of the data has been generated by pioneers. This is crucial during the initial stages for "value scale." from our pioneers. We have submitted petitions to CT three times for OM on Pi2Day. This is because most community leaders and pioneers are facing resource shortages, and the first function of "value scale" has been successful. If CT can announce the GCV price and OM on Pi2Day , the entire ecosystem will operates on the same pricing system for development. We believe this strategy can also work well. However, CT has announced that OM will be at the earliest by the end of this year. From my perspective, the goal is to reach 15 million KYC and 10 migration Pi wallets, and more importantly, to ensure that the ecosystem has developed to meet the maturity level outlined in the 2019 white paper, or at least has a prototype of the ecosystem. This approach may eliminate the need to announce the Pi price once the entire ecosystem has been accepted. This conservative approach aims to prevent pioneers from converting Pi to FIAT after OM. Instead, the ecosystem will offer utilities for pioneers to use. This will result in a more stable and secure Pi currency. ✅Since CT has decided to OM until the year end or later, there will be at least five months for ecosystem development. Hence, the question now is what pioneers can do during Currency 2nd Stage? Pioneers always have the task of completing their KYC and migration on time, and they are encouraged to become validators if they wish. In addition to the above, pioneers have another important task, which CT cannot directly ask us to do, but it's something we need to do for ourselves. This task is to join the ecosystem with GCV price. As we have discussed, since we want Pi as a currency, it must circulate in our community. Therefore, we need merchants and service providers to offer products or services. However, we cannot force them to do so. If we enforce full Pi payments, they will avoid participating. Currently, we are seeing some full Pi payments in our online ecosystem at different prices, but almost all are very low, less than $1 or less than $0.1. We believe this price is not suitable for Pi's long-term vision and mission. That's why we choose to only support GCV. ✅So the next question is: How can we motivate merchants and service providers to join our ecosystem so that we can OM with GCV $314,159? My suggestion is to allow partial Pi and partial FIAT. They can use 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, or even 90% FIAT. As long as the FIAT value is lower than the market price, it will benefit pioneers. When more merchants join, they will compete with each other to lower the FIAT ratio. This concept aims to create a real business environment, not a charity environment. We should not depend on leaders, pioneers, or merchants to donate. Instead, we need to create a mechanism to let them compete, which will benefit them and motivate more merchants to join. What about pioneers? If given two options, which one would you choose? a. Only small items worth $1 available for full Pi payment, with no higher value products available and still needing to spend FIAT from the outside market. b. Buy products inside our community at a 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% FIAT ratio, lower than the outside market price, and including larger items like cell phones, TVs, appliances, jewelry, furniture, clothing, shoes, etc. without limitation. You will save at least 20%-30% on your daily or luxury purchases. I believe you would want option b, as you would save a significant amount of money during the five months. Most importantly, you would be very happy because you understand that what you do will make GCV $314,159 a reality without any doubt. Do you want to live with uncertainty or certainty? Joining this kind of barter system will bring you happiness with certainty. This is what I call the creation of Pi circulation, which is our second stage. After OM, we will enter the third, fourth, and fifth stages, which are the storage, payment, and international settlement currency stages. Since GCV $314,159 on the right track to OM, we need to make GCV more widely accepted and widely used to create circulation. In this way, we will make GCV OM foundation very strong and this will help the ecosystem after OM to reduce any risk that pioneers all go to exchange market to dump. Pi represents not only the future of our pioneers but also the future of the world. Let us come together as a strong, unified family and community. However, beyond this unity, it is imperative to establish a robust business ecosystem and a supportive development environment to encourage and incentivize the participation of more ecosystem members towards our long-term objectives. This will have a positive impact on our local economy and facilitate garnering support from various national governments for the Pi Network. It is crucial for the ecosystem to adhere to FIAT tax obligations to respective country governments, even during the mainnet enclosure. Therefore, partial FIAT payments are essential to enable compliance. Without such a practice, merchants would struggle to sustain themselves and would not have the necessary FIAT currency for tax payments. Doris Yin 🪷🪷🪷 Disclaimer: The above is only my personal analysis and does not represent CT or any business, and is only for community education. Any merchants or pioneers should use their own evaluation to see if it is suitable for them.
4:56

TOPIC # 46 DEVELOP REAL ECOSYSTEM DURING 2ND STAGE Dear Global Pioneers, Happy Saturday! Today, I recorded a ten-minute video for you. However, I understand that many of the pioneers may not understand English. So, I am writing this article to help you understand my message. ✅Summary of the 1st Currency stage work from the pioneers' community: According to the white paper, Pi will be a global currency, designed not as an asset or a traditional investment, but as a currency. Therefore, we, as the pioneers' community, need to help Pi complete its mission. The core team can only take care of the infrastructure work; the rest depends on us. This is why it's important for pioneers to understand that we have our task. Our task is not just to complete KYC and migration; it's to develop Pi as a currency. The characteristics of currency include durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply, and acceptability. Currency has five major functions: scale of value, means of circulation, means of storage, means of payment, a world settlement currency. Over the past two and a half years, our focus has been on establishing the first currency function as " scale of value" and generating at least one million GCV $314,159 data. We have received support from pioneers representing at least 120 countries. We believe there is no alternative to GCV in terms of pricing. CT’s announcement on Pi2Day indicates that we are on right track and at the forefront of OM. As a result, GCV $314,159 is aligned with Pi Network's mission and vision. I’ve noticed that many pioneers are questioning CT about the delay in KYC and migration procedures over the past two and a half years. My response is that they were awaiting GCV from pioneers. Without this support, our goal of establishing a currency would not be achievable. However, despite the recent Global GCV movement, we have not seen significant involvement from merchants in the exchange of GCV. Most of the data has been generated by pioneers. This is crucial during the initial stages for "value scale." from our pioneers. We have submitted petitions to CT three times for OM on Pi2Day. This is because most community leaders and pioneers are facing resource shortages, and the first function of "value scale" has been successful. If CT can announce the GCV price and OM on Pi2Day , the entire ecosystem will operates on the same pricing system for development. We believe this strategy can also work well. However, CT has announced that OM will be at the earliest by the end of this year. From my perspective, the goal is to reach 15 million KYC and 10 migration Pi wallets, and more importantly, to ensure that the ecosystem has developed to meet the maturity level outlined in the 2019 white paper, or at least has a prototype of the ecosystem. This approach may eliminate the need to announce the Pi price once the entire ecosystem has been accepted. This conservative approach aims to prevent pioneers from converting Pi to FIAT after OM. Instead, the ecosystem will offer utilities for pioneers to use. This will result in a more stable and secure Pi currency. ✅Since CT has decided to OM until the year end or later, there will be at least five months for ecosystem development. Hence, the question now is what pioneers can do during Currency 2nd Stage? Pioneers always have the task of completing their KYC and migration on time, and they are encouraged to become validators if they wish. In addition to the above, pioneers have another important task, which CT cannot directly ask us to do, but it's something we need to do for ourselves. This task is to join the ecosystem with GCV price. As we have discussed, since we want Pi as a currency, it must circulate in our community. Therefore, we need merchants and service providers to offer products or services. However, we cannot force them to do so. If we enforce full Pi payments, they will avoid participating. Currently, we are seeing some full Pi payments in our online ecosystem at different prices, but almost all are very low, less than $1 or less than $0.1. We believe this price is not suitable for Pi's long-term vision and mission. That's why we choose to only support GCV. ✅So the next question is: How can we motivate merchants and service providers to join our ecosystem so that we can OM with GCV $314,159? My suggestion is to allow partial Pi and partial FIAT. They can use 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, or even 90% FIAT. As long as the FIAT value is lower than the market price, it will benefit pioneers. When more merchants join, they will compete with each other to lower the FIAT ratio. This concept aims to create a real business environment, not a charity environment. We should not depend on leaders, pioneers, or merchants to donate. Instead, we need to create a mechanism to let them compete, which will benefit them and motivate more merchants to join. What about pioneers? If given two options, which one would you choose? a. Only small items worth $1 available for full Pi payment, with no higher value products available and still needing to spend FIAT from the outside market. b. Buy products inside our community at a 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% FIAT ratio, lower than the outside market price, and including larger items like cell phones, TVs, appliances, jewelry, furniture, clothing, shoes, etc. without limitation. You will save at least 20%-30% on your daily or luxury purchases. I believe you would want option b, as you would save a significant amount of money during the five months. Most importantly, you would be very happy because you understand that what you do will make GCV $314,159 a reality without any doubt. Do you want to live with uncertainty or certainty? Joining this kind of barter system will bring you happiness with certainty. This is what I call the creation of Pi circulation, which is our second stage. After OM, we will enter the third, fourth, and fifth stages, which are the storage, payment, and international settlement currency stages. Since GCV $314,159 on the right track to OM, we need to make GCV more widely accepted and widely used to create circulation. In this way, we will make GCV OM foundation very strong and this will help the ecosystem after OM to reduce any risk that pioneers all go to exchange market to dump. Pi represents not only the future of our pioneers but also the future of the world. Let us come together as a strong, unified family and community. However, beyond this unity, it is imperative to establish a robust business ecosystem and a supportive development environment to encourage and incentivize the participation of more ecosystem members towards our long-term objectives. This will have a positive impact on our local economy and facilitate garnering support from various national governments for the Pi Network. It is crucial for the ecosystem to adhere to FIAT tax obligations to respective country governments, even during the mainnet enclosure. Therefore, partial FIAT payments are essential to enable compliance. Without such a practice, merchants would struggle to sustain themselves and would not have the necessary FIAT currency for tax payments. Doris Yin 🪷🪷🪷 Disclaimer: The above is only my personal analysis and does not represent CT or any business, and is only for community education. Any merchants or pioneers should use their own evaluation to see if it is suitable for them.

Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷

35,873 views • 2 years ago

My fellow Kenyans, In the spirit of accountability and civic education, I bring you my analysis of the Nyaribari Chache CDF. My analysis covered 2018-2022. Current MP is Hon. Zaheer Jhanda If you do not know him, please watch the first video attached, and the other pictures. These pictures are from his social media accounts. Please note that, the focus of the review is the CDF itself and not necessarily the politician. That is to say that I don't care when someone was elected. I am looking at the performance of the CDF vs intended purpose. When I do bring up the politician, I am discussing his or her fit for the job. Before we even get to the findings, I do want to ask you for your indulgence a little bit, to discuss something that I believe is related to the findings you will see below. And that is, "intellectual capacity". Or, "competence". Please follow me here. Let us assume that you are a wealthy individual. But you were not born wealthy. You started from below scratch, and now, you own several companies with annual revenues in the billions. One has annual revenues of KSH 17 billion, and let us call it KIAMBU CORPORATION. The other has annual revenues of KSH 40 billion. We will call this one NAIROBI CORPORATION. Finally - you have a start-up - and things are really tight there. You need to make sure the start-up succeeds. You need someone to help steer the start-up through some hard times, ensuring that the company is focused on its core competency, to develop it into a success story. The start-up is young, but has KSH 200 million in revenues annually. And you cannot afford to waste money. We will call the start-up Nyaribari Chache Corporation. You need to hire Chief Executive Officers ("CEOs") for these three companies. Among the people that have expressed interest in these positions, are: @MikeSonko for CEO of Nairobi Corporation. Sakaja Arthur Johnson for Nairobi Corporation. Ferdinand Waititu, aka H.E. Waititu BabaYao for Kiambu Corporation. And Hon. Zaheer Jhanda for Nyaribari Chache. You scan their resumes and other publicly available information, and here is what you find: @MikeSonko is a self-proclaimed "reformed fraudster" and conman. He once served a prison sentence, which he did not have the discipline to complete, in the coast for fraud. Has no known legitimate educational or professional background. Nothing that says he has even the average skills required to run - which is different from just holding the title of CEO - a company with KSH 40 billion in revenue. He is very flashy, and you can tell he adores cash by just visiting his Instagram account. But you have no idea where his cash comes from, although there are rumours that he may be involved in illicit business dealings. Sakaja Arthur Johnson - appears is born politician. He has never been accused of running anything - including a kiosk. Has never really worked anywhere where he could have learned any skills. But he has sent a diploma with his name from a "TEAM UNIVERSITY" - which, given that nobody has ever heard it, you googled to find out that it is a school in Uganda. That said, you have never seen anyone graduate from that school, and have absolutely no idea about the rigor of its academic programs. In any case - he has ZERO experience outside of politics. In other words - the only thing you are certain about with regards to him, is that he possesses dimples. H.E. Waititu BabaYao is equally enigmatic. You have listened to his interviews on TV, trying to gauge his acumen and competency. He does have a degree certificate from a school in India - but not much is known about his competency, abilities, or experience to run a company with KSH 17 billion in revenue. For Nyaribari Chache, Hon. Zaheer Jhanda wants the job, bad. His resume reads as follows: Educational background: Kenya Methodist University: Currently Seeking a Bachelor or Arts degree, having started in 2020. Outside of this, he has a KCSE certificate from Cardinal Otunga High School (1997). Work experience: BIG. FAT. NOTHING. Now, you have to decide if you are going to hire these people, to run a company with KSH 40 billion in revenues, 17 billion in revenues, and the start-up with annual revenues of KSH 200 million. And to be sure - there are hundreds of applicants for these jobs, with impressive credentials and verified work experience. Are you hiring H.E. Waititu BabaYao @MikeSonko Sakaja Arthur Johnson or Hon. Zaheer Jhanda for these jobs? The scenario I just gave you above is not a figment of my imagination. It is not a functional story am working on. These four people, sought and received positions to lead Nairobi City County Kiambu County Kenya. and Nyaribari Chache MP - on those records. Nairobi City County has a budget north of KSH 40 billion. Kiambu County Kenya. has a budget of KSH 17 billion. Hon. Zaheer Jhanda ran for office without any credentials or work experience, and the good people of Nyaribari Chache elected him. His basic salary is close to 1 million a month. The point is this. When we hire these people for these jobs, we are trusting them with the ability to use their "competency" to make very important decisions for us - about how to allocate very scarce resources. And, there are millions of people, whose dreams and aspirations rise and fall based on the decisions these people make, with those resources. For example, with a KSH 17 billion budget, Kiambu County is not supposed to spend more than 35% of this budget on salaries. If you look at most counties, and look at the number of people employed by the county, it is normally less than 1% of the entire county population. When people leading our government lack the requisite competency, and make dumb decisions, we pay the price. When Kiambu County Kenya. spends 61% of the budget in violation of the law (as opposed to a maximum of 35%), as it does often, this means that the county politicians have effectively diverted over KSH 4.5 billion in that one year, from serving you, to a few people. That KSH 4.5 billion is the difference between having a well-equipped and functioning hospital, and not. A good road, or not. In other words, the competency of people we put into these offices matter, people. It does. The question then is, why are our standards different in politics? If you could not hire these people for CEO positions to play with your own money, why would you elect them to lead jurisdictions with similar level of resources and complexity? That having been said, I digress. Back to Nyaribari Chache. Executive Summary: The audit reports for Nyaribari Chache Constituency’s NGCDF covering financial years 2018-2022 reveal systemic financial mismanagement, misallocation of funds, corruption, and governance failures. The audit findings highlight missing, unaccounted, and wasted funds amounting to Kshs. 292,609,418, affecting the constituency’s service delivery and public trust. Key Findings and Financial Irregularities Missing or Potentially Stolen Funds – Kshs. 79,677,585 1. Unaccounted school bursary disbursements totaling Kshs. 35,542,356 (FY 2018-2019). 2. Overpayments for construction projects exceeding contract values by Kshs. 7,696,229 (FY 2021-2022). Without rationale or support. 3. Unsupported expenditures on security projects of Kshs. 7,000,000 (FY 2021-2022). 4. Bank balance discrepancies, including unreversed stale cheques of Kshs. 2,027,111 (FY 2019-2020). 5. Irregular/illegal procurement of school buses without open tendering, totaling Kshs. 23,349,603 (FY 2018-2019). Wasted or Inefficiently Used Funds – Kshs. 134,136,599 1. Multiple stalled or incomplete school projects, including classroom, laboratory, and dormitory constructions totaling Kshs. 12,500,000 (FY 2021-2022). 2. Unfinished security projects worth Kshs. 34,500,000, with contractors abandoning sites (FY 2021-2022). 3. Procurement mismanagement, including unsupported sports equipment purchases amounting to Kshs. 3,497,000 (FY 2020-2021). Unaccounted or Unsupported Funds – Kshs. 78,795,234 1. Unverified/unsupported allowances and monitoring expenses amounting to Kshs. 8,900,000 (FY 2020-2021). 2. Undocumented expenditure on tuition block construction totaling Kshs. 13,688,879 (FY 2021-2022). 3. Lack of asset register documentation, with total reported assets of Kshs. 30,501,772 (FY 2021-2022). 4. Unreconciled bank balances, including Kshs. 17,291,514 in unpresented cheques that cannot be accounted for (FY 2020-2021). 5. Sports funds misuse, with Kshs. 3,497,000 unaccounted for in equipment purchases (FY 2020-2021). Details and minutiae below: Financial Year 2021-2022​ Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Expenditure on Tuition Block Construction. Contract amount was Kshs. 5,992,650. CDF somehow claims paying Kshs. 13,688,879 - overpaying by Kshs. 7,696,229. No interim certificates, project progress reports, or bank statements provided, as is required by law. No explanation or rationale for excess payment. 2. Unsupported Security Project Expenditure. Total Allocated: Kshs. 36,400,000. One project inspected was Kiogoro Police Post (Kshs. 7,000,000). No project file, payment certificates, or proof of expenditures provided. Absolutely ZERO documentation. 3. Irregular/Illegal Procurement Practices. Operating Expenses unaccounted For: Kshs. 1,650,000 4. Poorly Managed School Projects. Funds Transferred to Primary Schools: Kshs. 41,045,982 5. Purchase of School Bus Without Documentation. Amount Paid: Kshs. 8,200,000 No procurement documents provided for Nyanchwa Girls Secondary School bus purchase. 6. Multiple Incomplete School Projects/or abandoned/poorly managed. KSH 12.5 million of investment wasted. Examples: Kerera Central Primary: Construction incomplete (Kshs. 1,200,000). Kabwori Primary: Only 1 classroom built instead of a 3-roomed block (Kshs. 700,000). Amariba Secondary: Lab incomplete (Kshs. 4,900,000). 7. Millions in assets unaccounted for. CDF says it has Total Assets of Kshs. 30,501,772, but it cannot show any documentation. Financial Year 2020-2021​ Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Allowances & Monitoring Expenses. Total Committee Expenses: Kshs. 8,900,000, but Kshs. 5,650,000 cannot be supported with any documentation. No receipts. 2. Inaccurate Cash Balances. Total Reported Bank Balance: Kshs. 32,612,061, but Kshs. 17,291,514 in cheques that were written have not been accounted for. 3. Incomplete School Projects. Total Funding: Kshs. 58,637,901. Examples: Boronyi Secondary: Admin block incomplete despite full funding (Kshs. 1,320,835). Kenya Medical Training College (Ibeno Campus): Unjustified and unsupported contract variation of Kshs. 2,278,847. 4. Unsupported Sports Equipment Purchases. Total Allocated: Kshs. 4,550,000, but Kshs. 3,497,000 cannot be supported through documentation. No receipts or any other evidence available. Financial Year 2019-2020​ Key Audit Issues: 1. Unreversed Stale Cheques: Kshs. 2,027,111. Cannot be accounted for. 2. Multiple Stalled, and poorly undertaken Secondary School Projects. Examples: Nyataro COG Secondary: Admin Block stalled at ground floor. Nyamemiso Secondary: Laboratory had cracked walls. Financial Year 2018-2019​ Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Domestic Travel & Allowances. Total Spent: Kshs. 11,504,819, but Kshs. 1,875,000 cannot be supported. ZERO documentation. 2. Unverified Bursary Disbursements. Total Disbursed: Kshs. 35,831,356. A whopping : Kshs. 35,542,356 could not be confirmed by the supposed receiving institutions. 3. Improper and Illegal Procurement of School Buses. Total Spent: Kshs. 23,349,603. No Open Tender Used: Violated procurement laws. 4. Lack of Land Ownership Documents. Out of Assets Reported by CDF, with a claimed value of Kshs. 21,177,306, Kshs. 8,096,672 could not be confirmed through documentation. This land CDF says is owned, but has no ownership documents. NG-CDF Mizani254 Dr. Miguna Miguna The Kisii County Wanjiru Githiomi Kikao Bright Shitemi Hon. Zaheer Jhanda Hon Alice Ng'ang'a, CBS Senate of Kenya National Assembly KE William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Dr. Milton N. Oriku SokoAnalyst WILLIE OEBA Dr. Dancan Onyango Eric Latiff
2:27

My fellow Kenyans, In the spirit of accountability and civic education, I bring you my analysis of the Nyaribari Chache CDF. My analysis covered 2018-2022. Current MP is Hon. Zaheer Jhanda If you do not know him, please watch the first video attached, and the other pictures. These pictures are from his social media accounts. Please note that, the focus of the review is the CDF itself and not necessarily the politician. That is to say that I don't care when someone was elected. I am looking at the performance of the CDF vs intended purpose. When I do bring up the politician, I am discussing his or her fit for the job. Before we even get to the findings, I do want to ask you for your indulgence a little bit, to discuss something that I believe is related to the findings you will see below. And that is, "intellectual capacity". Or, "competence". Please follow me here. Let us assume that you are a wealthy individual. But you were not born wealthy. You started from below scratch, and now, you own several companies with annual revenues in the billions. One has annual revenues of KSH 17 billion, and let us call it KIAMBU CORPORATION. The other has annual revenues of KSH 40 billion. We will call this one NAIROBI CORPORATION. Finally - you have a start-up - and things are really tight there. You need to make sure the start-up succeeds. You need someone to help steer the start-up through some hard times, ensuring that the company is focused on its core competency, to develop it into a success story. The start-up is young, but has KSH 200 million in revenues annually. And you cannot afford to waste money. We will call the start-up Nyaribari Chache Corporation. You need to hire Chief Executive Officers ("CEOs") for these three companies. Among the people that have expressed interest in these positions, are: @MikeSonko for CEO of Nairobi Corporation. Sakaja Arthur Johnson for Nairobi Corporation. Ferdinand Waititu, aka H.E. Waititu BabaYao for Kiambu Corporation. And Hon. Zaheer Jhanda for Nyaribari Chache. You scan their resumes and other publicly available information, and here is what you find: @MikeSonko is a self-proclaimed "reformed fraudster" and conman. He once served a prison sentence, which he did not have the discipline to complete, in the coast for fraud. Has no known legitimate educational or professional background. Nothing that says he has even the average skills required to run - which is different from just holding the title of CEO - a company with KSH 40 billion in revenue. He is very flashy, and you can tell he adores cash by just visiting his Instagram account. But you have no idea where his cash comes from, although there are rumours that he may be involved in illicit business dealings. Sakaja Arthur Johnson - appears is born politician. He has never been accused of running anything - including a kiosk. Has never really worked anywhere where he could have learned any skills. But he has sent a diploma with his name from a "TEAM UNIVERSITY" - which, given that nobody has ever heard it, you googled to find out that it is a school in Uganda. That said, you have never seen anyone graduate from that school, and have absolutely no idea about the rigor of its academic programs. In any case - he has ZERO experience outside of politics. In other words - the only thing you are certain about with regards to him, is that he possesses dimples. H.E. Waititu BabaYao is equally enigmatic. You have listened to his interviews on TV, trying to gauge his acumen and competency. He does have a degree certificate from a school in India - but not much is known about his competency, abilities, or experience to run a company with KSH 17 billion in revenue. For Nyaribari Chache, Hon. Zaheer Jhanda wants the job, bad. His resume reads as follows: Educational background: Kenya Methodist University: Currently Seeking a Bachelor or Arts degree, having started in 2020. Outside of this, he has a KCSE certificate from Cardinal Otunga High School (1997). Work experience: BIG. FAT. NOTHING. Now, you have to decide if you are going to hire these people, to run a company with KSH 40 billion in revenues, 17 billion in revenues, and the start-up with annual revenues of KSH 200 million. And to be sure - there are hundreds of applicants for these jobs, with impressive credentials and verified work experience. Are you hiring H.E. Waititu BabaYao @MikeSonko Sakaja Arthur Johnson or Hon. Zaheer Jhanda for these jobs? The scenario I just gave you above is not a figment of my imagination. It is not a functional story am working on. These four people, sought and received positions to lead Nairobi City County Kiambu County Kenya. and Nyaribari Chache MP - on those records. Nairobi City County has a budget north of KSH 40 billion. Kiambu County Kenya. has a budget of KSH 17 billion. Hon. Zaheer Jhanda ran for office without any credentials or work experience, and the good people of Nyaribari Chache elected him. His basic salary is close to 1 million a month. The point is this. When we hire these people for these jobs, we are trusting them with the ability to use their "competency" to make very important decisions for us - about how to allocate very scarce resources. And, there are millions of people, whose dreams and aspirations rise and fall based on the decisions these people make, with those resources. For example, with a KSH 17 billion budget, Kiambu County is not supposed to spend more than 35% of this budget on salaries. If you look at most counties, and look at the number of people employed by the county, it is normally less than 1% of the entire county population. When people leading our government lack the requisite competency, and make dumb decisions, we pay the price. When Kiambu County Kenya. spends 61% of the budget in violation of the law (as opposed to a maximum of 35%), as it does often, this means that the county politicians have effectively diverted over KSH 4.5 billion in that one year, from serving you, to a few people. That KSH 4.5 billion is the difference between having a well-equipped and functioning hospital, and not. A good road, or not. In other words, the competency of people we put into these offices matter, people. It does. The question then is, why are our standards different in politics? If you could not hire these people for CEO positions to play with your own money, why would you elect them to lead jurisdictions with similar level of resources and complexity? That having been said, I digress. Back to Nyaribari Chache. Executive Summary: The audit reports for Nyaribari Chache Constituency’s NGCDF covering financial years 2018-2022 reveal systemic financial mismanagement, misallocation of funds, corruption, and governance failures. The audit findings highlight missing, unaccounted, and wasted funds amounting to Kshs. 292,609,418, affecting the constituency’s service delivery and public trust. Key Findings and Financial Irregularities Missing or Potentially Stolen Funds – Kshs. 79,677,585 1. Unaccounted school bursary disbursements totaling Kshs. 35,542,356 (FY 2018-2019). 2. Overpayments for construction projects exceeding contract values by Kshs. 7,696,229 (FY 2021-2022). Without rationale or support. 3. Unsupported expenditures on security projects of Kshs. 7,000,000 (FY 2021-2022). 4. Bank balance discrepancies, including unreversed stale cheques of Kshs. 2,027,111 (FY 2019-2020). 5. Irregular/illegal procurement of school buses without open tendering, totaling Kshs. 23,349,603 (FY 2018-2019). Wasted or Inefficiently Used Funds – Kshs. 134,136,599 1. Multiple stalled or incomplete school projects, including classroom, laboratory, and dormitory constructions totaling Kshs. 12,500,000 (FY 2021-2022). 2. Unfinished security projects worth Kshs. 34,500,000, with contractors abandoning sites (FY 2021-2022). 3. Procurement mismanagement, including unsupported sports equipment purchases amounting to Kshs. 3,497,000 (FY 2020-2021). Unaccounted or Unsupported Funds – Kshs. 78,795,234 1. Unverified/unsupported allowances and monitoring expenses amounting to Kshs. 8,900,000 (FY 2020-2021). 2. Undocumented expenditure on tuition block construction totaling Kshs. 13,688,879 (FY 2021-2022). 3. Lack of asset register documentation, with total reported assets of Kshs. 30,501,772 (FY 2021-2022). 4. Unreconciled bank balances, including Kshs. 17,291,514 in unpresented cheques that cannot be accounted for (FY 2020-2021). 5. Sports funds misuse, with Kshs. 3,497,000 unaccounted for in equipment purchases (FY 2020-2021). Details and minutiae below: Financial Year 2021-2022​ Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Expenditure on Tuition Block Construction. Contract amount was Kshs. 5,992,650. CDF somehow claims paying Kshs. 13,688,879 - overpaying by Kshs. 7,696,229. No interim certificates, project progress reports, or bank statements provided, as is required by law. No explanation or rationale for excess payment. 2. Unsupported Security Project Expenditure. Total Allocated: Kshs. 36,400,000. One project inspected was Kiogoro Police Post (Kshs. 7,000,000). No project file, payment certificates, or proof of expenditures provided. Absolutely ZERO documentation. 3. Irregular/Illegal Procurement Practices. Operating Expenses unaccounted For: Kshs. 1,650,000 4. Poorly Managed School Projects. Funds Transferred to Primary Schools: Kshs. 41,045,982 5. Purchase of School Bus Without Documentation. Amount Paid: Kshs. 8,200,000 No procurement documents provided for Nyanchwa Girls Secondary School bus purchase. 6. Multiple Incomplete School Projects/or abandoned/poorly managed. KSH 12.5 million of investment wasted. Examples: Kerera Central Primary: Construction incomplete (Kshs. 1,200,000). Kabwori Primary: Only 1 classroom built instead of a 3-roomed block (Kshs. 700,000). Amariba Secondary: Lab incomplete (Kshs. 4,900,000). 7. Millions in assets unaccounted for. CDF says it has Total Assets of Kshs. 30,501,772, but it cannot show any documentation. Financial Year 2020-2021​ Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Allowances & Monitoring Expenses. Total Committee Expenses: Kshs. 8,900,000, but Kshs. 5,650,000 cannot be supported with any documentation. No receipts. 2. Inaccurate Cash Balances. Total Reported Bank Balance: Kshs. 32,612,061, but Kshs. 17,291,514 in cheques that were written have not been accounted for. 3. Incomplete School Projects. Total Funding: Kshs. 58,637,901. Examples: Boronyi Secondary: Admin block incomplete despite full funding (Kshs. 1,320,835). Kenya Medical Training College (Ibeno Campus): Unjustified and unsupported contract variation of Kshs. 2,278,847. 4. Unsupported Sports Equipment Purchases. Total Allocated: Kshs. 4,550,000, but Kshs. 3,497,000 cannot be supported through documentation. No receipts or any other evidence available. Financial Year 2019-2020​ Key Audit Issues: 1. Unreversed Stale Cheques: Kshs. 2,027,111. Cannot be accounted for. 2. Multiple Stalled, and poorly undertaken Secondary School Projects. Examples: Nyataro COG Secondary: Admin Block stalled at ground floor. Nyamemiso Secondary: Laboratory had cracked walls. Financial Year 2018-2019​ Key Audit Issues: 1. Unsupported Domestic Travel & Allowances. Total Spent: Kshs. 11,504,819, but Kshs. 1,875,000 cannot be supported. ZERO documentation. 2. Unverified Bursary Disbursements. Total Disbursed: Kshs. 35,831,356. A whopping : Kshs. 35,542,356 could not be confirmed by the supposed receiving institutions. 3. Improper and Illegal Procurement of School Buses. Total Spent: Kshs. 23,349,603. No Open Tender Used: Violated procurement laws. 4. Lack of Land Ownership Documents. Out of Assets Reported by CDF, with a claimed value of Kshs. 21,177,306, Kshs. 8,096,672 could not be confirmed through documentation. This land CDF says is owned, but has no ownership documents. NG-CDF Mizani254 Dr. Miguna Miguna The Kisii County Wanjiru Githiomi Kikao Bright Shitemi Hon. Zaheer Jhanda Hon Alice Ng'ang'a, CBS Senate of Kenya National Assembly KE William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Dr. Milton N. Oriku SokoAnalyst WILLIE OEBA Dr. Dancan Onyango Eric Latiff

Bonnie Mwangi, CPA, LLM, MBA

17,739 views • 1 year ago

The Strait of Hormuz crisis just claimed its first VICTIM but the real damage hasn't even started yet. Two days ago Spirit Airlines (the 8th largest airline in America) permanently shut down. Everyone's blaming legacy debt and bad management. Fine. But the KILLING BLOW was jet fuel doubling from $74 to $150 a barrel in 10 weeks because the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and there is no plan to reopen it. Spirit is the first domino, and it will not be the last: The Federation of Indian Airlines (representing Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet) just warned the government that their entire industry is "on the verge of closing down." Ryanair's CEO publicly named Wizz Air and Air Baltic as the next to go bankrupt by autumn. Air France-KLM disclosed $2.4 BILLION in additional fuel costs this year. The IEA says Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left. And here's where it gets really bad... Airlines are the EASY part of this story. The hard part is food: One-third of global fertilizer trade flows through Hormuz. Nitrogen prices are up over 40% since February. The American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year. A Michigan farmer told PBS his nitrogen cost went from $350 a ton in January to $600. An Iowa farmer said he's skipping nutrients entirely. This has a deadline and the deadline is NOW. The Corn Belt planting window is mid-April through early May. Nitrogen has to reach the crop during early growth or it does nothing. Apply it 3 weeks late and corn yields drop 10 to 25%. You can hear what the farmer in the clip below (which is already a MONTH old) said. We're in it. Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport takes WEEKS that farmers do not have. And nobody has a Plan B. G7 countries stockpile oil - but nobody stockpiled fertilizer. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia. There is no workaround. And it doesn't stop at food. Qatar produces a third of the world's helium - a gas that is IRREPLACEABLE in semiconductor manufacturing. Chipmakers use it to cool silicon wafers during fabrication There is no substitute. Iranian strikes damaged Qatar's production facilities at Ras Laffan, and even the helium that IS being produced can't get out because it ships through Hormuz. Spot prices have doubled. South Korea gets 55% of its helium from the Gulf. Taiwan gets 69%. Those are the two countries that make virtually ALL of the world's advanced chips. SEMI, the semiconductor industry association, said even if the Strait opened today it would take 4 to 6 months to normalize supply. So every AI bull pricing in infinite chip scaling should be asking one very simple question: Where is the helium coming from? And this isn't getting resolved because Iran has ZERO incentive to give anything up. Hormuz is the only card they have and they know the political clock in Washington is working entirely in their favor: Trump's approval just hit 34% - lowest of his second term. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 points. A majority of voters view the Iran operation as a failure. Midterms are only 6 months out. Iran sees all of this. They know time pressure falls on Washington, not Tehran. Their demands - frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, continued control of Hormuz, enrichment rights preserved - haven't budged since the Islamabad talks collapsed. The Pentagon told Congress mine clearing alone could take 6 months. And that can't even START until the war ends. Meanwhile Brent sits above $110 and both sides are blockading each other: Iran blockades the Gulf. The US blockades Iran. The global economy is caught between two walls closing in. Markets are pricing this like a temporary disruption. But it is NOT temporary. The fertilizer damage is already done for this growing season, food price increases are baked in through 2027, the airline shakeout is just beginning, the semiconductor supply chain is fraying, and the diplomatic stalemate has no obvious exit because neither side can afford to blink. I've been saying the margin of safety was too thin and complacency would be punished. Energy is the trade. Spirit Airlines just died two days ago and proved it.
0:42

The Strait of Hormuz crisis just claimed its first VICTIM but the real damage hasn't even started yet. Two days ago Spirit Airlines (the 8th largest airline in America) permanently shut down. Everyone's blaming legacy debt and bad management. Fine. But the KILLING BLOW was jet fuel doubling from $74 to $150 a barrel in 10 weeks because the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and there is no plan to reopen it. Spirit is the first domino, and it will not be the last: The Federation of Indian Airlines (representing Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet) just warned the government that their entire industry is "on the verge of closing down." Ryanair's CEO publicly named Wizz Air and Air Baltic as the next to go bankrupt by autumn. Air France-KLM disclosed $2.4 BILLION in additional fuel costs this year. The IEA says Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left. And here's where it gets really bad... Airlines are the EASY part of this story. The hard part is food: One-third of global fertilizer trade flows through Hormuz. Nitrogen prices are up over 40% since February. The American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year. A Michigan farmer told PBS his nitrogen cost went from $350 a ton in January to $600. An Iowa farmer said he's skipping nutrients entirely. This has a deadline and the deadline is NOW. The Corn Belt planting window is mid-April through early May. Nitrogen has to reach the crop during early growth or it does nothing. Apply it 3 weeks late and corn yields drop 10 to 25%. You can hear what the farmer in the clip below (which is already a MONTH old) said. We're in it. Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport takes WEEKS that farmers do not have. And nobody has a Plan B. G7 countries stockpile oil - but nobody stockpiled fertilizer. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia. There is no workaround. And it doesn't stop at food. Qatar produces a third of the world's helium - a gas that is IRREPLACEABLE in semiconductor manufacturing. Chipmakers use it to cool silicon wafers during fabrication There is no substitute. Iranian strikes damaged Qatar's production facilities at Ras Laffan, and even the helium that IS being produced can't get out because it ships through Hormuz. Spot prices have doubled. South Korea gets 55% of its helium from the Gulf. Taiwan gets 69%. Those are the two countries that make virtually ALL of the world's advanced chips. SEMI, the semiconductor industry association, said even if the Strait opened today it would take 4 to 6 months to normalize supply. So every AI bull pricing in infinite chip scaling should be asking one very simple question: Where is the helium coming from? And this isn't getting resolved because Iran has ZERO incentive to give anything up. Hormuz is the only card they have and they know the political clock in Washington is working entirely in their favor: Trump's approval just hit 34% - lowest of his second term. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 points. A majority of voters view the Iran operation as a failure. Midterms are only 6 months out. Iran sees all of this. They know time pressure falls on Washington, not Tehran. Their demands - frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, continued control of Hormuz, enrichment rights preserved - haven't budged since the Islamabad talks collapsed. The Pentagon told Congress mine clearing alone could take 6 months. And that can't even START until the war ends. Meanwhile Brent sits above $110 and both sides are blockading each other: Iran blockades the Gulf. The US blockades Iran. The global economy is caught between two walls closing in. Markets are pricing this like a temporary disruption. But it is NOT temporary. The fertilizer damage is already done for this growing season, food price increases are baked in through 2027, the airline shakeout is just beginning, the semiconductor supply chain is fraying, and the diplomatic stalemate has no obvious exit because neither side can afford to blink. I've been saying the margin of safety was too thin and complacency would be punished. Energy is the trade. Spirit Airlines just died two days ago and proved it.

George Noble

71,283 views • 3 months ago

An economics masterclass by Alex Neil on #ScottishPrism 8/9/24 "The SNP have dug their own hole, because in 2015, on the recommendation of the Smith Commission, they signed a thing called the fiscal framework with the UK government. They've signed a new one just a couple of years ago, and if you read the detail of that, and I don't think Nicola understood what she had signed, quite frankly, that it's a trap. It's an economic suicide note. I'm not going to go into all the technical details with you just now, but believe you me, nobody, I think, should have signed in any way whatsoever that fiscal framework, either the original one in 2015-16, or the second one that was signed, I think it was last year or the year before, because it puts constraints on what the SNP can do to tackle the economic and social challenges that Scotland faces. However, I think this is the opportunity the SNP government has to get back on track. Now, I think the budget on the 4th December, which Shona Robison is due to deliver, should do three things. First of all, instead of making cuts and stopping promises... programmes like the free school meals for primary six and seven, we should not make those cuts to vital services. Instead, we should raise the additional revenue required to fulfil those promises and deliver those services. And there are two candidates for that. First of all, put an emergency land tax on the top 6 or 7 thousand landed estates in Scotland. Let's say £100 pounds an acre a year. And you could do that very quickly because you're talking about a small number of people. You could probably do it from April next year, October at the latest. So if you put that tax on, it could bring in up to £1.5 billion pounds a year. That would mean you would not need to implement any of these cuts and you could deliver on free school meals and other things besides. So that's the first thing. And that would be a very popular tax. I would actually use some of that money to reduce the income tax burden on the lowest income, lowest earning people, because they're paying too much proportionately in income tax compared to the richer people. So that's number one. Number two, if we had properly negotiated the offshore wind farm deals in the way that other countries have done. For example, if you take the European example, Denmark recently announced around, I think it was Denmark, where they took 20% of a government stake in all the offshore wind farms. We didn't take any stake whatsoever. Now, if we'd done the European average, we would have about £16 billion pounds in the Scottish Government's coffers coming in, had we just followed the example of what's been done elsewhere. Had we charged as much as what the UK Government did for the offshore wind farms off the English coast, we would have had £28 billions over a period of years coming in. Now, even if you take the lower figure of £16 billion, but particularly if you take the higher figure of £28 billion, then far from having a problem, you put that into a 'National Wealth Fund' for Scotland. You could dual the A9, dual A96, sort the A82, sort a whole host of, you know, housing issues, house-building programmes and all the rest of it, over a period, say of five to ten years. But get started now. So I would do two things. First of all, I would speed up the next round of offshore licences and this time do a deal that's going to be a benefit, real benefit, to the Scottish people. There's a review going on of the Crown Estates, I would take over the Crown Estates. If I was the First Minister or Finance Minister, I would haul them in and tell them what they're bloody well going to do in the interests of the Scottish people this time. And I would also say to the King, I don't think he should be getting a quarter of the profits from the Crown Estates in Scotland, quite frankly, he's got enough to keep them going. And the quarterly piece of the slice that he takes, should come back to the Scottish people. So that would be the first thing. The second thing is, I would review the current licence that we have issued in far too generous a basis, by the way, because part of the contract and the licence says that they must make a serious effort to manufacture the blades and other materials in Scotland. Now, the evidence is that that's not happening. Most of the blades seem to be getting manufactured in China or elsewhere. So I would be going to these companies and saying, and I did this as a health minister in PFI contracts. For example, we reviewed the PFI contract at Larbert Hospital. This is 10-12 years ago, and the contractor wasn't keeping to the terms of the contract, so we actually recovered millions of pounds on that contract as a result of their breach. They didn't even challenge us on it. The first instalment was, I think, £7 million pounds back, you know, from them, because they recognised that they had not kept to the contract. So if they've not kept to the contract, we are entitled to go back to them and see those of you who have not been building your downstream supply chain in Scotland, or enough of it in Scotland, you've breached the contract, therefore the licence is terminated unless you agree not only to keep to that promise to build the supply chains in Scotland. But also, we're changing the contract so that from now we get an annual sum from you that we can spend as a Scottish Government in whatever we want to spend on in Scotland. And that might bring in only initially £500 million quid, but it's £500 million quid we don't have, and that £500 million quid could, again, prevent cuts. And the third thing I would do is, I would say to the Scottish Government, when it comes to the spending side, it's high time you get your priorities right. Let me give you an example. In the run-up to last December's Scottish Government budget, the Greens refused to take a penny out of what's called the Active Travel Budget, which is mainly spent on cycling lanes, and said, apparently they threatened to leave the government and resign from the Scottish Government if the Scottish Government took any money off the, I think it was about £200 million at that time, the Active Travel Budget. I personally would have said, well, there's the door. Because what happened was, they kept - I think it's actually down to £160 million now, - but they kept that level of money in what was a cycle lane fund. I'm not against cycle lanes, but they took £200 million off the housing budget. Now, if you're getting economic growth, tackle climate change and tackle child poverty, you need a massive investment in housing. And when it comes to priorities, housing is a far, far more important priority than cycle lanes, including for climate change, it's more important. It makes a far bigger contribution to reducing carbon emissions and... carbon efficiency than cycle lanes do, and it does it in a far better way. So I think that £200 million, which is still off the housing budget, take that money from the cycle lane budget and put it back into the housing budget. It's just one example of where do you get your priorities right. And the final comment in the budget I'd make is this. There is a call on the press, not just the right-wing press, by the way, to means test Social Security benefits. Why do we not test all the handouts the Scottish Government gives to the big landowners, for example, including, I think, the King, in relation to Balmoral? I mean, there's a project called the Peatland Restoration Project, subsidising large corporate companies and large landowners for peatland restoration. We should just pass a law saying that it's a statutory duty. They've got to do it. They've got the money in their own pockets to do it. Why are we spending billions over a period of years getting folk to plant trees? Why don't we just tell them and strengthen the land reform bill, so we've got the powers just to tell them that they've got to do with their land what is necessary for the Scottish interest. Some on the edges might, small farmers and the like, might require a bit of a subsidy, but these people who are mega rich, these corporates, are now buying up the land in Scotland. They don't need the subsidy. So why don't we means test them instead of means testing the poor? And that would be popular in Scotland. So there's three or four measures I would take if I was Shona Robison in December. I regret to say, Roddy, I don't think any of that will happen, because they don't have the backbone to do it. They don't seem to have the intellectual capacity..." from #ScottishPrism with Barrhead Boy (Through A Scottish Prism) and eva comrie Phil Boswell & special guest Alex Neil - ++Watch Again++ 🎥
9:59

An economics masterclass by Alex Neil on #ScottishPrism 8/9/24 "The SNP have dug their own hole, because in 2015, on the recommendation of the Smith Commission, they signed a thing called the fiscal framework with the UK government. They've signed a new one just a couple of years ago, and if you read the detail of that, and I don't think Nicola understood what she had signed, quite frankly, that it's a trap. It's an economic suicide note. I'm not going to go into all the technical details with you just now, but believe you me, nobody, I think, should have signed in any way whatsoever that fiscal framework, either the original one in 2015-16, or the second one that was signed, I think it was last year or the year before, because it puts constraints on what the SNP can do to tackle the economic and social challenges that Scotland faces. However, I think this is the opportunity the SNP government has to get back on track. Now, I think the budget on the 4th December, which Shona Robison is due to deliver, should do three things. First of all, instead of making cuts and stopping promises... programmes like the free school meals for primary six and seven, we should not make those cuts to vital services. Instead, we should raise the additional revenue required to fulfil those promises and deliver those services. And there are two candidates for that. First of all, put an emergency land tax on the top 6 or 7 thousand landed estates in Scotland. Let's say £100 pounds an acre a year. And you could do that very quickly because you're talking about a small number of people. You could probably do it from April next year, October at the latest. So if you put that tax on, it could bring in up to £1.5 billion pounds a year. That would mean you would not need to implement any of these cuts and you could deliver on free school meals and other things besides. So that's the first thing. And that would be a very popular tax. I would actually use some of that money to reduce the income tax burden on the lowest income, lowest earning people, because they're paying too much proportionately in income tax compared to the richer people. So that's number one. Number two, if we had properly negotiated the offshore wind farm deals in the way that other countries have done. For example, if you take the European example, Denmark recently announced around, I think it was Denmark, where they took 20% of a government stake in all the offshore wind farms. We didn't take any stake whatsoever. Now, if we'd done the European average, we would have about £16 billion pounds in the Scottish Government's coffers coming in, had we just followed the example of what's been done elsewhere. Had we charged as much as what the UK Government did for the offshore wind farms off the English coast, we would have had £28 billions over a period of years coming in. Now, even if you take the lower figure of £16 billion, but particularly if you take the higher figure of £28 billion, then far from having a problem, you put that into a 'National Wealth Fund' for Scotland. You could dual the A9, dual A96, sort the A82, sort a whole host of, you know, housing issues, house-building programmes and all the rest of it, over a period, say of five to ten years. But get started now. So I would do two things. First of all, I would speed up the next round of offshore licences and this time do a deal that's going to be a benefit, real benefit, to the Scottish people. There's a review going on of the Crown Estates, I would take over the Crown Estates. If I was the First Minister or Finance Minister, I would haul them in and tell them what they're bloody well going to do in the interests of the Scottish people this time. And I would also say to the King, I don't think he should be getting a quarter of the profits from the Crown Estates in Scotland, quite frankly, he's got enough to keep them going. And the quarterly piece of the slice that he takes, should come back to the Scottish people. So that would be the first thing. The second thing is, I would review the current licence that we have issued in far too generous a basis, by the way, because part of the contract and the licence says that they must make a serious effort to manufacture the blades and other materials in Scotland. Now, the evidence is that that's not happening. Most of the blades seem to be getting manufactured in China or elsewhere. So I would be going to these companies and saying, and I did this as a health minister in PFI contracts. For example, we reviewed the PFI contract at Larbert Hospital. This is 10-12 years ago, and the contractor wasn't keeping to the terms of the contract, so we actually recovered millions of pounds on that contract as a result of their breach. They didn't even challenge us on it. The first instalment was, I think, £7 million pounds back, you know, from them, because they recognised that they had not kept to the contract. So if they've not kept to the contract, we are entitled to go back to them and see those of you who have not been building your downstream supply chain in Scotland, or enough of it in Scotland, you've breached the contract, therefore the licence is terminated unless you agree not only to keep to that promise to build the supply chains in Scotland. But also, we're changing the contract so that from now we get an annual sum from you that we can spend as a Scottish Government in whatever we want to spend on in Scotland. And that might bring in only initially £500 million quid, but it's £500 million quid we don't have, and that £500 million quid could, again, prevent cuts. And the third thing I would do is, I would say to the Scottish Government, when it comes to the spending side, it's high time you get your priorities right. Let me give you an example. In the run-up to last December's Scottish Government budget, the Greens refused to take a penny out of what's called the Active Travel Budget, which is mainly spent on cycling lanes, and said, apparently they threatened to leave the government and resign from the Scottish Government if the Scottish Government took any money off the, I think it was about £200 million at that time, the Active Travel Budget. I personally would have said, well, there's the door. Because what happened was, they kept - I think it's actually down to £160 million now, - but they kept that level of money in what was a cycle lane fund. I'm not against cycle lanes, but they took £200 million off the housing budget. Now, if you're getting economic growth, tackle climate change and tackle child poverty, you need a massive investment in housing. And when it comes to priorities, housing is a far, far more important priority than cycle lanes, including for climate change, it's more important. It makes a far bigger contribution to reducing carbon emissions and... carbon efficiency than cycle lanes do, and it does it in a far better way. So I think that £200 million, which is still off the housing budget, take that money from the cycle lane budget and put it back into the housing budget. It's just one example of where do you get your priorities right. And the final comment in the budget I'd make is this. There is a call on the press, not just the right-wing press, by the way, to means test Social Security benefits. Why do we not test all the handouts the Scottish Government gives to the big landowners, for example, including, I think, the King, in relation to Balmoral? I mean, there's a project called the Peatland Restoration Project, subsidising large corporate companies and large landowners for peatland restoration. We should just pass a law saying that it's a statutory duty. They've got to do it. They've got the money in their own pockets to do it. Why are we spending billions over a period of years getting folk to plant trees? Why don't we just tell them and strengthen the land reform bill, so we've got the powers just to tell them that they've got to do with their land what is necessary for the Scottish interest. Some on the edges might, small farmers and the like, might require a bit of a subsidy, but these people who are mega rich, these corporates, are now buying up the land in Scotland. They don't need the subsidy. So why don't we means test them instead of means testing the poor? And that would be popular in Scotland. So there's three or four measures I would take if I was Shona Robison in December. I regret to say, Roddy, I don't think any of that will happen, because they don't have the backbone to do it. They don't seem to have the intellectual capacity..." from #ScottishPrism with Barrhead Boy (Through A Scottish Prism) and eva comrie Phil Boswell & special guest Alex Neil - ++Watch Again++ 🎥

ScotNews

22,901 views • 1 year ago