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Prime Intellect's will brown says continual learning could be solved in the first half of 2026: "Continual learning is going to fall pretty quickly, I think. It's more of an engineering problem. No one's actually trying." "OpenAI and Anthropic don't want to continuously train their models for each user....

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TBPN

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72,357 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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The co-founders of Flapping Airplanes call the current RL paradigm for model training "environment slop." They explain: "The reinforcement paradigms of today are shockingly inefficient. You don't really get much generalization across tasks, you teach a model through one kind of learning and then you teach it the next one. It's kind of like whack-a-mole. We look at this and think it's kind of crazy. The next paradigm of AI will not be environment slop." "Human level intelligence is not the ceiling, it is merely the floor on what is possible. If you can train models with vastly less data and possibly more compute in very different ways, what is going to happen? We actually don't know. But I do think they'll be different and weird and they'll have interesting capabilities that we'll find really valuable ways to use."
2:40

The co-founders of Flapping Airplanes call the current RL paradigm for model training "environment slop." They explain: "The reinforcement paradigms of today are shockingly inefficient. You don't really get much generalization across tasks, you teach a model through one kind of learning and then you teach it the next one. It's kind of like whack-a-mole. We look at this and think it's kind of crazy. The next paradigm of AI will not be environment slop." "Human level intelligence is not the ceiling, it is merely the floor on what is possible. If you can train models with vastly less data and possibly more compute in very different ways, what is going to happen? We actually don't know. But I do think they'll be different and weird and they'll have interesting capabilities that we'll find really valuable ways to use."

TBPN

85,358 次观看 • 6 个月前

.John Coogan says the recent reporting on Meta's 'tokenmaxxing' is less of a sign of bad incentives at the company, and more of a tell about its potential strategy for more vertical integration: "I think it makes clearer the strategy with MSL. Because it's clear that they're spending hundreds of millions of dollars on this, just for internal code-gen tooling — like, running their business." "They are going to spend an inordinate amount of money on frontier inference, and so [by] training a model there, they will be able to amortize the training cost of the next model they build not just over, 'Can they get a product out that goes viral and becomes its own standalone chat app that people pay for.'" "Just on the internal usage, they could be running a multi-billion-dollar token bill that they would have to pay another lab. And so if they develop that internally, it's pure vertical integration." "And then you also have everything that's happening on the actual ad targeting and content delivery side..." "The big question has been like, 'Is Meta going to be able to launch an entirely new AI product like Vibes or something like that?'" "And this is a data point that, to me, says they don't need to. Because just from a pure vertical integration [perspective], the investment in MSL can pencil out."
1:29

.John Coogan says the recent reporting on Meta's 'tokenmaxxing' is less of a sign of bad incentives at the company, and more of a tell about its potential strategy for more vertical integration: "I think it makes clearer the strategy with MSL. Because it's clear that they're spending hundreds of millions of dollars on this, just for internal code-gen tooling — like, running their business." "They are going to spend an inordinate amount of money on frontier inference, and so [by] training a model there, they will be able to amortize the training cost of the next model they build not just over, 'Can they get a product out that goes viral and becomes its own standalone chat app that people pay for.'" "Just on the internal usage, they could be running a multi-billion-dollar token bill that they would have to pay another lab. And so if they develop that internally, it's pure vertical integration." "And then you also have everything that's happening on the actual ad targeting and content delivery side..." "The big question has been like, 'Is Meta going to be able to launch an entirely new AI product like Vibes or something like that?'" "And this is a data point that, to me, says they don't need to. Because just from a pure vertical integration [perspective], the investment in MSL can pencil out."

TBPN

32,654 次观看 • 3 个月前

Mark Zuckerberg: If software productivity increased like a 100X in two years… the amount of creativity that’s going to be unlocked is going to be massive. And if you look at the overall arc of human society and the economy over a hundred or a hundred fifty years, it’s basically people going from being primarily agrarian and most of human energy going towards just feeding ourselves… to that becoming a smaller and smaller percent. The things that take care of our basic physical needs are a smaller and smaller percent of human energy, which has led to two impacts. One is more people are doing kind of creative and cultural pursuits, and two is that people in general spend less time working and more time on entertainment and culture. I think that is almost certainly going to continue as this goes on. If everyone is going to have these superhuman tools to be able to create a ton of different stuff, I think you’re going to get this incredible diversity. Part of it is going to be solving hard problems like solving diseases or different things around science… but I would guess that a lot of it is going to end up being cultural and social pursuit and entertainment. The world is going to get a lot funnier and weirder and quirkier… like the memes on the internet have gotten over the last ten years. And that adds a certain kind of richness and depth… I think it actually helps you connect better with people.
2:18

Mark Zuckerberg: If software productivity increased like a 100X in two years… the amount of creativity that’s going to be unlocked is going to be massive. And if you look at the overall arc of human society and the economy over a hundred or a hundred fifty years, it’s basically people going from being primarily agrarian and most of human energy going towards just feeding ourselves… to that becoming a smaller and smaller percent. The things that take care of our basic physical needs are a smaller and smaller percent of human energy, which has led to two impacts. One is more people are doing kind of creative and cultural pursuits, and two is that people in general spend less time working and more time on entertainment and culture. I think that is almost certainly going to continue as this goes on. If everyone is going to have these superhuman tools to be able to create a ton of different stuff, I think you’re going to get this incredible diversity. Part of it is going to be solving hard problems like solving diseases or different things around science… but I would guess that a lot of it is going to end up being cultural and social pursuit and entertainment. The world is going to get a lot funnier and weirder and quirkier… like the memes on the internet have gotten over the last ten years. And that adds a certain kind of richness and depth… I think it actually helps you connect better with people.

Ian Miles Cheong

13,308 次观看 • 5 个月前

Derrick Milano about working with BTS 🙏🧎‍♀️ ‘The biggest part for me working with them is just really like, they really love creating music. It doesn't seem like they're in it for the money. It doesn't seem like they're in it for clout. It seems like they really genuinely and passionately love music. I think we need to see that more because it's a gift from God that we have and we can't take it for granted because at any point in time it can get taken away. So when you do have the opportunity and the luxury and you do have the pleasure to work with amazing people and you're able to put this stuff out, take advantage of it, and I think THEY take advantage of it to the fullest extent, from their music videos to the performance to the recording to the engineering to who they collaborate with. They use it to the fullest extent, and I think that's why it's so receptive and it's performing the way it is, because they go above and beyond for their work and their process and their product.’
0:52

Derrick Milano about working with BTS 🙏🧎‍♀️ ‘The biggest part for me working with them is just really like, they really love creating music. It doesn't seem like they're in it for the money. It doesn't seem like they're in it for clout. It seems like they really genuinely and passionately love music. I think we need to see that more because it's a gift from God that we have and we can't take it for granted because at any point in time it can get taken away. So when you do have the opportunity and the luxury and you do have the pleasure to work with amazing people and you're able to put this stuff out, take advantage of it, and I think THEY take advantage of it to the fullest extent, from their music videos to the performance to the recording to the engineering to who they collaborate with. They use it to the fullest extent, and I think that's why it's so receptive and it's performing the way it is, because they go above and beyond for their work and their process and their product.’

Lore ⊙⊝⊜ ᴀʀɪʀᴀɴɢ

27,070 次观看 • 4 个月前

🇺🇸🇺🇦 TRUMP: "82% OF UKRAINIANS WANT A SETTLEMENT, BUT IT TAKES 2 TO TANGO" "I think [Zelensky] has to be realistic. I do wonder how long it's going to be until they have an election. It's a democracy. They haven't had an election in a long time. It's losing a lot of people. I will say 82% of the people want to see a settlement be made. They're losing thousands and thousands of people a week. They want to see it ended. When do they have an election? Are they going to have an election? Or are they going to just keep it going like this? So I think it's time to get that war settled. And I think it's a war that can be settled. But it takes 2 to tango." Source: White House Live, Fox News, Aaron Rupar
1:25

🇺🇸🇺🇦 TRUMP: "82% OF UKRAINIANS WANT A SETTLEMENT, BUT IT TAKES 2 TO TANGO" "I think [Zelensky] has to be realistic. I do wonder how long it's going to be until they have an election. It's a democracy. They haven't had an election in a long time. It's losing a lot of people. I will say 82% of the people want to see a settlement be made. They're losing thousands and thousands of people a week. They want to see it ended. When do they have an election? Are they going to have an election? Or are they going to just keep it going like this? So I think it's time to get that war settled. And I think it's a war that can be settled. But it takes 2 to tango." Source: White House Live, Fox News, Aaron Rupar

Mario Nawfal

243,833 次观看 • 7 个月前

AI is changing the software engineering craft. Anders Hejlsberg (Anders Hejlsberg) - creator of C#, TypeScript and industry legend - on why code review needs to get more enjoyable in response: #1 - AI is shifting the craft from writing code, to reviewing code: "In a sense, we're all turning into project managers. We can have an army of junior programmers, called agents, that will just spit out reams of code but someone's got to have the big picture and review all of that. And so, increasingly, our craft is going from one of writing the code, to one of reviewing the code and building the architecture of the code and overseeing the work. It's a different kind of craft. It's a different kind of enjoyment. I've always liked writing the code. To me that was the fulfilling part, seeing it work. In a way, AI robs a little bit of that, because I am less interested in reviewing code." #2 - The code review experience should be improved: "I think we could also make the process of reviewing code much more interesting than it is today. I mean, today, you see a list of diffs in alphabetical order and now it's up to you to make heads or tails of it. There are more pedagogical ways of presenting that. And you could have commentary generated by the AI that tells you what the changes are and whatever, and then tries to guide you along. So that symbiotic relationship, I think we need to work on that more and to keep the enjoyment in there."
2:04

AI is changing the software engineering craft. Anders Hejlsberg (Anders Hejlsberg) - creator of C#, TypeScript and industry legend - on why code review needs to get more enjoyable in response: #1 - AI is shifting the craft from writing code, to reviewing code: "In a sense, we're all turning into project managers. We can have an army of junior programmers, called agents, that will just spit out reams of code but someone's got to have the big picture and review all of that. And so, increasingly, our craft is going from one of writing the code, to one of reviewing the code and building the architecture of the code and overseeing the work. It's a different kind of craft. It's a different kind of enjoyment. I've always liked writing the code. To me that was the fulfilling part, seeing it work. In a way, AI robs a little bit of that, because I am less interested in reviewing code." #2 - The code review experience should be improved: "I think we could also make the process of reviewing code much more interesting than it is today. I mean, today, you see a list of diffs in alphabetical order and now it's up to you to make heads or tails of it. There are more pedagogical ways of presenting that. And you could have commentary generated by the AI that tells you what the changes are and whatever, and then tries to guide you along. So that symbiotic relationship, I think we need to work on that more and to keep the enjoyment in there."

The Pragmatic Engineer

39,011 次观看 • 2 个月前

.Scott Nolan to Shawn Ryan: Energy Will Decide U.S.-China Race for AI and Economic Dominance "I think the next decade's going to be all about energy. Even Sam Altman from OpenAI had some recent hearing or talk where he talked about just the evolution of AI. You've got algorithms. Algorithms run on chips, but ultimately the chips need electricity. And what he said, if thinking back to this interview, the algorithms are going to get better and better and better and cheaper, and the chips will get cheaper and cheaper, but at the end of the day, you have to get the electrons, and the electrons have a fundamental price, and ultimately it's going to come down to that. I think even the AI, the AI competition between different companies in the U.S., between different countries, it's ultimately going to come back to the electricity production. Next decade, it's going to be all about power production. AI, military, if you think you need kinetics and military, that comes back to manufacturing. If you think economics, we have to have the biggest economy so that we can just have the most productive capacity, energy. Next decade is going to be all about energy, and we've stayed flat for a decade, for 15 years, we haven't done anything, more like 20 years, our grid's been pretty stagnant, and if we want U.S. leadership, it's going to have to grow. I think that's going to be the story we see, and it's going to be about solving different supply chain needs, whether it's fuel, maybe it's transformers, maybe it's transmission, all these things are going to come up. It's going to be chips. We'd have to go back to that chart and see exactly where is China today, where were they before in terms of per capita, but I think a lot of that production, the doubling of their grid relative to our grid, a lot of that's gone into manufacturing. We've shifted manufacturing from the U.S. to overseas. A lot of that's in China now, we've let them do it. A big part of that, people thought was, well, Chinese labor is much cheaper, but a lot of these processes can be automated. And so once you automate it, it just comes back to energy cost. And so China said, let's double our grid. Let's keep going. Let's work on tripling our grid, and we'll do it in the cheapest way possible because we want to win on manufacturing and get all this economic activity over here. Meanwhile, the U.S. has said, we have a bunch of regulations, which are good, and probably some that are unnecessary and have slowed us down, and so we haven't done the growth, and we've been very thoughtful about emissions, environmental impact, carbon. Meanwhile, China's doubling, tripling their grid and has done a lot of that with coal. And so we've shifted manufacturing here that would have been cleaner over there and just probably ended up net producing more carbon than we would have, more pollutants than we would have, and just kind of outsourced that. But as we know, carbon flows everywhere. If you're really worried about carbon emissions, letting China double their grid with coal and move energy-intensive manufacturing there is not actually the answer. The answer is the U.S. has to unblock building here, doing industrial activity, do it cleanly, do it with nuclear or other sources, even natural gas, half the carbon emissions of coal, and the world would be way better off. Their grid doubling hasn't just meant that everyone there has a better quality of life. I think it just means that we've taken a lot of manufacturing from here and done it over there."
3:47

.Scott Nolan to Shawn Ryan: Energy Will Decide U.S.-China Race for AI and Economic Dominance "I think the next decade's going to be all about energy. Even Sam Altman from OpenAI had some recent hearing or talk where he talked about just the evolution of AI. You've got algorithms. Algorithms run on chips, but ultimately the chips need electricity. And what he said, if thinking back to this interview, the algorithms are going to get better and better and better and cheaper, and the chips will get cheaper and cheaper, but at the end of the day, you have to get the electrons, and the electrons have a fundamental price, and ultimately it's going to come down to that. I think even the AI, the AI competition between different companies in the U.S., between different countries, it's ultimately going to come back to the electricity production. Next decade, it's going to be all about power production. AI, military, if you think you need kinetics and military, that comes back to manufacturing. If you think economics, we have to have the biggest economy so that we can just have the most productive capacity, energy. Next decade is going to be all about energy, and we've stayed flat for a decade, for 15 years, we haven't done anything, more like 20 years, our grid's been pretty stagnant, and if we want U.S. leadership, it's going to have to grow. I think that's going to be the story we see, and it's going to be about solving different supply chain needs, whether it's fuel, maybe it's transformers, maybe it's transmission, all these things are going to come up. It's going to be chips. We'd have to go back to that chart and see exactly where is China today, where were they before in terms of per capita, but I think a lot of that production, the doubling of their grid relative to our grid, a lot of that's gone into manufacturing. We've shifted manufacturing from the U.S. to overseas. A lot of that's in China now, we've let them do it. A big part of that, people thought was, well, Chinese labor is much cheaper, but a lot of these processes can be automated. And so once you automate it, it just comes back to energy cost. And so China said, let's double our grid. Let's keep going. Let's work on tripling our grid, and we'll do it in the cheapest way possible because we want to win on manufacturing and get all this economic activity over here. Meanwhile, the U.S. has said, we have a bunch of regulations, which are good, and probably some that are unnecessary and have slowed us down, and so we haven't done the growth, and we've been very thoughtful about emissions, environmental impact, carbon. Meanwhile, China's doubling, tripling their grid and has done a lot of that with coal. And so we've shifted manufacturing here that would have been cleaner over there and just probably ended up net producing more carbon than we would have, more pollutants than we would have, and just kind of outsourced that. But as we know, carbon flows everywhere. If you're really worried about carbon emissions, letting China double their grid with coal and move energy-intensive manufacturing there is not actually the answer. The answer is the U.S. has to unblock building here, doing industrial activity, do it cleanly, do it with nuclear or other sources, even natural gas, half the carbon emissions of coal, and the world would be way better off. Their grid doubling hasn't just meant that everyone there has a better quality of life. I think it just means that we've taken a lot of manufacturing from here and done it over there."

Josh Caplan

28,340 次观看 • 1 年前

Marc Andreessen says AI is hyper democratizing. “Is the future of the world going to be one or a small number of companies, or for that matter, governments or super AIs that kind of own and control everything?” “Or is this a technology that's going to diffuse out and be in everybody's hands?” “This is the time in which AI is actually hyper democratizing. It has spread to more individuals, both in the country and around the world in the shortest period of time of any new technology I think in history.” “The best AIs in the world are in the consumer products.” “This technology is going to be in everybody's hands. And everybody is going to be able to use it to optimize the things that they do, have it be a thought partner, assistant for building companies.” Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸
1:34

Marc Andreessen says AI is hyper democratizing. “Is the future of the world going to be one or a small number of companies, or for that matter, governments or super AIs that kind of own and control everything?” “Or is this a technology that's going to diffuse out and be in everybody's hands?” “This is the time in which AI is actually hyper democratizing. It has spread to more individuals, both in the country and around the world in the shortest period of time of any new technology I think in history.” “The best AIs in the world are in the consumer products.” “This technology is going to be in everybody's hands. And everybody is going to be able to use it to optimize the things that they do, have it be a thought partner, assistant for building companies.” Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

a16z

79,935 次观看 • 9 个月前

Anish Acharya: We're going to see a "YouTube moment for software": "If you think about YouTube 20 years ago—we had lots of video and lots of television, and it was high production quality, and it wasn't clear that we needed more and 20 years later, YouTube's a $550 billion enterprise that would be one of the biggest companies in the world if it was independent." "I think the same thing is going to happen for software. People want to make software, and for the first time they can—and they can distribute it and they can consume it." "Sometimes it's going to be important software. Sometimes it's going to be totally trivial. It's going to be software for a bachelor party weekend, software for a joke, software for a prompt. We have this sort of seriousness about software that we had about video and television 20 years ago." "Now it's like—I just took a video on my phone. It's going to be like—I just made an app on my phone. Same energy." Anish Acharya on BILLIONS with Guillaume Moubeche
1:30

Anish Acharya: We're going to see a "YouTube moment for software": "If you think about YouTube 20 years ago—we had lots of video and lots of television, and it was high production quality, and it wasn't clear that we needed more and 20 years later, YouTube's a $550 billion enterprise that would be one of the biggest companies in the world if it was independent." "I think the same thing is going to happen for software. People want to make software, and for the first time they can—and they can distribute it and they can consume it." "Sometimes it's going to be important software. Sometimes it's going to be totally trivial. It's going to be software for a bachelor party weekend, software for a joke, software for a prompt. We have this sort of seriousness about software that we had about video and television 20 years ago." "Now it's like—I just took a video on my phone. It's going to be like—I just made an app on my phone. Same energy." Anish Acharya on BILLIONS with Guillaume Moubeche

a16z

102,908 次观看 • 4 个月前

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF ELON'S CYBERCAB AND ROBOVAN PRESENTATION 00:00 Welcome 01:16 Cybercab & Future of transportation 04:33 Cost 05:53 Timeline 07:13 Self-driving technology 10:05 Inductive charging 10:24 The cities of the future 11:04 Robovan 12:13 Optimus Welcome Welcome to the We, Robot party. We have quite a show for you tonight. I think you're going to like it. As you can see, I just arrived in the Robotaxi, the Cybercab. And there's 20 more where that came from. So they've been traveling, there's no people in them. As you can see, the car is just going by with no people. We have 50 fully autonomous cars here tonight. So you'll see model Y's and the Cybercabs, all driverless. You'll be able to take a ride in the Cybercab. There's no steering wheel or pedals. So I hope this goes well, we'll find out. You see a lot of sci-fi movies where the future is dark and dismal, where it's not a future you want to be in. So, you know, I love Blade Runner, but I don't know if we want that future. We want that duster he's wearing, but not the bleak apocalypse. We want to have a fun, exciting future that, if you could look in a crystal ball and see the future, you'd be like, yes, I wish I could be there now. That's what we want. Cybercab & Future of transportation So, when we think about transport today, there's a lot of pain that we take for granted, that we think is normal. Like having to drive around LA in 3 hours of traffic. Yeah, people that live in LA, I mean, you know, try to get from Pasadena to El Segundo during rush hour. You can fly to another city faster than you can get to LA. And you have to drive the whole way, unless you're in a Tesla. Of course, our Tesla already does quite well at this supervised self-driving. So, supervised full self-driving is actually working quite well. I'm sure there's people in the crowd who are using that. So, we'll move from supervised full self-driving to unsupervised full self-driving where the car, you could fall asleep and wake up at your destination. But there's also a challenge for a lot of people that cars cost too much. I mean, when you factor in everything that goes into a car and the car insurance and the car payments, storage of the car, it's very expensive. You say, like, how many hours a week are cars used? Your average passenger car is only used about 10 hours a week out of 168 hours. So, the vast majority of the time cars are just doing nothing. But if they're autonomous, they could be used, I don't know, five times more, maybe ten times more. So you could actually, for the same car, would have five times as much value, maybe ten times as much value. There's 168 hours in the week, and like I said, only ten of them are used for driving. And then, a bunch of those hours are looking for a parking spot, which can be pretty annoying at times. So, with autonomy, you get your time back. This is a very big deal. So it's not just, it'll save lives, like a lot of lives and prevent injuries. I think we'll see autonomous cars become ten times safer than a human. I mean, if you think of times past where there used to be an elevator operator in every elevator but once in a while, they get tired and accidentally shear somebody in half. Now, we have automated elevators. You just get an elevator and you press a button and you don't even think about it and it just takes you to the floor. And if you did see an elevator operator with a big relay switch, you'd be like, that's weird. That's how cars will be. And it's not just the lives saved in injuries, but if you think about the cumulative time that people spend in a car and the time that they will get back that they can now spend, well, I guess, on their phones or watching a movie or doing work or whatever you want to do you can think of the car in autonomous world as being like just little lounge. You're just sitting in a comfortable little lounge and you can do whatever you want while you're in this comfortable little lounge. And when you get out, you will be at your destination. So, yeah, it's gonna be awesome. Cost So, in fact, I think the cost of autonomous transport will be so low that you can think of it like individualized mass transit. The average cost of a bus per mile for a city, not the ticket price, because that is subsidized, but the average price is about a dollar a mile, whereas the cost of Cybercab we think probably over time, the operating cost is probably going to be around twenty cents a mile. Including taxes and everything else, it probably ends up being 30 or 40 cents a mile. And you will be able to buy one. And we expect the cost to be below $30,000. And I think there'll be an interesting business model where, let's say somebody is an Uber or Lyft driver today where they can actually sort of manage a fleet of cars and like, sort of manage, I don't know, 10, 20 cars and just take care of them. Like a shepherd tends their flock. You have a little flock of cars and you're the shepherd and you take care of your flock of cars. I think that would be pretty cool. I think it's going to be a glorious future. It's going to be really something special. Timeline We do expect actually to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. And that's obviously, that's with the Model 3 and Model Y. And then we expect to be in production with the Cybercab, which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames, but in 2026. So, yeah, before 2027, let me put it that way. And we'll make this vehicle in very high volume. But well, before that, you will experience a robotic taxi via the Model 3 and Model Y program and model S and X, too. But the Model 3 and Y will achieve unsupervised full self-driving with permission, in wherever regulators essentially approve it. In the US, and then to follow outside the US. And Cybertruck, too. All our cars are basically, all cars that we make. Let's not get nuanced here. Self-driving technology One of the reasons why the computer can be so much better than a person is that we have millions of cars that are training on driving. It's like living millions of lives simultaneously and seeing very unusual situations that a person in their entire lifetime would not see. With that amount of training data, it's obviously going to be much better than what a human could be because you can't live a million lives. And it's also, it can see in all directions simultaneously and it doesn't get tired or text or any of those things. So, it will naturally be, like I said 10, 20, 30 times safer than a human, just for all those reasons. And I want to emphasize that the solution that we have is, AI and vision. So, there's no expensive equipment needed. The Model 3 and Model Y and S and X that we make today will be capable of full autonomy, unsupervised. And that means that our cost of producing the vehicle is low. Now, we are going to actually over-spec the computer for the Cybercab. So, our AI 5 computer will be somewhat over-spec'd because I think there's actually also an opportunity, sort of like an Amazon Web Services, where if the car is driving for 50 hours a week, there's still over 100 hours left and there's a potential there to have a massive amount of distributed inference compute, where if you've got like a fleet of 100 million vehicles and a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, you have 100 gigawatts of compute, which is really quite substantial. And if it's there, you might as well use it so that I think will make sense. So, our autonomous future is here. As I said, we've got 50 Teslas driving autonomously. We're trying to give you a sense of what cities will be like in the future. And when you get in, you'll see like, it's really quite a wild experience to just be in a car with no steering wheel, no pedals, no controls, and it feels great. So we have enough vehicles here, so everyone should be able to try it out and experience the set that we've built here. It's a very big set. So it's like really we've used I don't know, 20, 30 acres or something like that. It's really big. So, it goes on, the ride's long. And we set it up to feel like a ride, like a park ride. So, it'll be cool and you'll get to experience it tonight. Inductive charging Something we're also doing is and it's really high time we did this is inductive charging. So, the robotaxi has no plug. It just goes over the inductive charger and charges. So, yeah, it's kind of how it should be. The cities of the future One of the things that is really interesting is how will this affect the cities that we live in. And when you drive around a city, or when the car drives you around the city, you'll see there's a lot of parking lots. There's parking lots everywhere, parking garages. What would happen if you have an autonomous world is that you can now turn parking lots into parks. And so, from we're taking the inglot out of parking lot. You're welcome. So, there's a lot of opportunity to create green space in the cities that we live in. So, like, that would be quite fantastic. Robovan Oh, and also, what happens if you need a vehicle that is bigger than a Model Y? The Robovan. We're going to make this and it's going to look like that. Now, can you imagine going down the streets and you see this coming towards you? That'd be sick. So this can carry up to 20 people, and it can also transport goods. You can configure it for goods transport within a city. Or transport of up to 20 people at a time. The Robovan is what's gonna solve for high density. If you want to take a sports team somewhere or you're looking to really get the cost of travel down to, I don't know, 5, 10 cents a mile, then you can use the Robovan. One of the things we want to do, and we've seen this with the Cybertruck, is we want to change the look of the roads. The future should look like the future. Optimus Speaking of robots. Everything we've developed for our cars, the batteries, power electronics, the advanced motors, gearboxes, the software, the AI inference computer, it all actually applies to a humanoid robot. The same techniques. It's just a robot with arms and legs instead of a robot with wheels. We've made a lot of progress with Optimus. And as you can see, we started up with someone in a robot suit. And then, we've progressed dramatically, year after year. So, if you extrapolate this, you're really going to have something spectacular, something that anyone could own. So, you can have your own personal R2-D2-C3PO. And I think at scale, this would cost something like, I don't know, $20,000, $30,000, probably less than a car is my prediction, long-term. It'll take us a minute to get to the long term. But fundamentally, at scale, the Optimus robot, you should be able to buy an Optimus robot for, I think, probably $20,000 to $30,000, long-term. And what can it do? It'll basically do anything you want. It can be a teacher or babysit your kids, it can walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries, just be your friend, serve drinks whatever you can think of, it will do. And, yeah, it's going to be awesome. I think this will be the biggest product ever of any kind, because I think everyone of the 8 billion people of Earth, I think everyone's going to want their Optimus buddy. And there's going to be maybe two. And then, they'll be producing products and services. I predict, actually, provided we address risks of digital superintelligence, 80% probability of good outcome, look on the bright side, the cup is 80% full, the cost of products and services will decline dramatically. And basically, anyone will be able to have any products and services they want. It will be an age of abundance the likes of which people have not, almost no one has envisioned. It will be something special. So now, one of the things we wanted to show tonight was that Optimus is not a canned video. It's not walled off. The Optimus robots will walk among you. Please, please be nice to the Optimus robots. You'll be able to walk right up to them and they'll serve drinks at the bar. I mean, it's a wild experience just to have humanoid robots and they're there, you're just in front of you. So yeah, with that, let's party!
15:37

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF ELON'S CYBERCAB AND ROBOVAN PRESENTATION 00:00 Welcome 01:16 Cybercab & Future of transportation 04:33 Cost 05:53 Timeline 07:13 Self-driving technology 10:05 Inductive charging 10:24 The cities of the future 11:04 Robovan 12:13 Optimus Welcome Welcome to the We, Robot party. We have quite a show for you tonight. I think you're going to like it. As you can see, I just arrived in the Robotaxi, the Cybercab. And there's 20 more where that came from. So they've been traveling, there's no people in them. As you can see, the car is just going by with no people. We have 50 fully autonomous cars here tonight. So you'll see model Y's and the Cybercabs, all driverless. You'll be able to take a ride in the Cybercab. There's no steering wheel or pedals. So I hope this goes well, we'll find out. You see a lot of sci-fi movies where the future is dark and dismal, where it's not a future you want to be in. So, you know, I love Blade Runner, but I don't know if we want that future. We want that duster he's wearing, but not the bleak apocalypse. We want to have a fun, exciting future that, if you could look in a crystal ball and see the future, you'd be like, yes, I wish I could be there now. That's what we want. Cybercab & Future of transportation So, when we think about transport today, there's a lot of pain that we take for granted, that we think is normal. Like having to drive around LA in 3 hours of traffic. Yeah, people that live in LA, I mean, you know, try to get from Pasadena to El Segundo during rush hour. You can fly to another city faster than you can get to LA. And you have to drive the whole way, unless you're in a Tesla. Of course, our Tesla already does quite well at this supervised self-driving. So, supervised full self-driving is actually working quite well. I'm sure there's people in the crowd who are using that. So, we'll move from supervised full self-driving to unsupervised full self-driving where the car, you could fall asleep and wake up at your destination. But there's also a challenge for a lot of people that cars cost too much. I mean, when you factor in everything that goes into a car and the car insurance and the car payments, storage of the car, it's very expensive. You say, like, how many hours a week are cars used? Your average passenger car is only used about 10 hours a week out of 168 hours. So, the vast majority of the time cars are just doing nothing. But if they're autonomous, they could be used, I don't know, five times more, maybe ten times more. So you could actually, for the same car, would have five times as much value, maybe ten times as much value. There's 168 hours in the week, and like I said, only ten of them are used for driving. And then, a bunch of those hours are looking for a parking spot, which can be pretty annoying at times. So, with autonomy, you get your time back. This is a very big deal. So it's not just, it'll save lives, like a lot of lives and prevent injuries. I think we'll see autonomous cars become ten times safer than a human. I mean, if you think of times past where there used to be an elevator operator in every elevator but once in a while, they get tired and accidentally shear somebody in half. Now, we have automated elevators. You just get an elevator and you press a button and you don't even think about it and it just takes you to the floor. And if you did see an elevator operator with a big relay switch, you'd be like, that's weird. That's how cars will be. And it's not just the lives saved in injuries, but if you think about the cumulative time that people spend in a car and the time that they will get back that they can now spend, well, I guess, on their phones or watching a movie or doing work or whatever you want to do you can think of the car in autonomous world as being like just little lounge. You're just sitting in a comfortable little lounge and you can do whatever you want while you're in this comfortable little lounge. And when you get out, you will be at your destination. So, yeah, it's gonna be awesome. Cost So, in fact, I think the cost of autonomous transport will be so low that you can think of it like individualized mass transit. The average cost of a bus per mile for a city, not the ticket price, because that is subsidized, but the average price is about a dollar a mile, whereas the cost of Cybercab we think probably over time, the operating cost is probably going to be around twenty cents a mile. Including taxes and everything else, it probably ends up being 30 or 40 cents a mile. And you will be able to buy one. And we expect the cost to be below $30,000. And I think there'll be an interesting business model where, let's say somebody is an Uber or Lyft driver today where they can actually sort of manage a fleet of cars and like, sort of manage, I don't know, 10, 20 cars and just take care of them. Like a shepherd tends their flock. You have a little flock of cars and you're the shepherd and you take care of your flock of cars. I think that would be pretty cool. I think it's going to be a glorious future. It's going to be really something special. Timeline We do expect actually to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. And that's obviously, that's with the Model 3 and Model Y. And then we expect to be in production with the Cybercab, which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames, but in 2026. So, yeah, before 2027, let me put it that way. And we'll make this vehicle in very high volume. But well, before that, you will experience a robotic taxi via the Model 3 and Model Y program and model S and X, too. But the Model 3 and Y will achieve unsupervised full self-driving with permission, in wherever regulators essentially approve it. In the US, and then to follow outside the US. And Cybertruck, too. All our cars are basically, all cars that we make. Let's not get nuanced here. Self-driving technology One of the reasons why the computer can be so much better than a person is that we have millions of cars that are training on driving. It's like living millions of lives simultaneously and seeing very unusual situations that a person in their entire lifetime would not see. With that amount of training data, it's obviously going to be much better than what a human could be because you can't live a million lives. And it's also, it can see in all directions simultaneously and it doesn't get tired or text or any of those things. So, it will naturally be, like I said 10, 20, 30 times safer than a human, just for all those reasons. And I want to emphasize that the solution that we have is, AI and vision. So, there's no expensive equipment needed. The Model 3 and Model Y and S and X that we make today will be capable of full autonomy, unsupervised. And that means that our cost of producing the vehicle is low. Now, we are going to actually over-spec the computer for the Cybercab. So, our AI 5 computer will be somewhat over-spec'd because I think there's actually also an opportunity, sort of like an Amazon Web Services, where if the car is driving for 50 hours a week, there's still over 100 hours left and there's a potential there to have a massive amount of distributed inference compute, where if you've got like a fleet of 100 million vehicles and a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, you have 100 gigawatts of compute, which is really quite substantial. And if it's there, you might as well use it so that I think will make sense. So, our autonomous future is here. As I said, we've got 50 Teslas driving autonomously. We're trying to give you a sense of what cities will be like in the future. And when you get in, you'll see like, it's really quite a wild experience to just be in a car with no steering wheel, no pedals, no controls, and it feels great. So we have enough vehicles here, so everyone should be able to try it out and experience the set that we've built here. It's a very big set. So it's like really we've used I don't know, 20, 30 acres or something like that. It's really big. So, it goes on, the ride's long. And we set it up to feel like a ride, like a park ride. So, it'll be cool and you'll get to experience it tonight. Inductive charging Something we're also doing is and it's really high time we did this is inductive charging. So, the robotaxi has no plug. It just goes over the inductive charger and charges. So, yeah, it's kind of how it should be. The cities of the future One of the things that is really interesting is how will this affect the cities that we live in. And when you drive around a city, or when the car drives you around the city, you'll see there's a lot of parking lots. There's parking lots everywhere, parking garages. What would happen if you have an autonomous world is that you can now turn parking lots into parks. And so, from we're taking the inglot out of parking lot. You're welcome. So, there's a lot of opportunity to create green space in the cities that we live in. So, like, that would be quite fantastic. Robovan Oh, and also, what happens if you need a vehicle that is bigger than a Model Y? The Robovan. We're going to make this and it's going to look like that. Now, can you imagine going down the streets and you see this coming towards you? That'd be sick. So this can carry up to 20 people, and it can also transport goods. You can configure it for goods transport within a city. Or transport of up to 20 people at a time. The Robovan is what's gonna solve for high density. If you want to take a sports team somewhere or you're looking to really get the cost of travel down to, I don't know, 5, 10 cents a mile, then you can use the Robovan. One of the things we want to do, and we've seen this with the Cybertruck, is we want to change the look of the roads. The future should look like the future. Optimus Speaking of robots. Everything we've developed for our cars, the batteries, power electronics, the advanced motors, gearboxes, the software, the AI inference computer, it all actually applies to a humanoid robot. The same techniques. It's just a robot with arms and legs instead of a robot with wheels. We've made a lot of progress with Optimus. And as you can see, we started up with someone in a robot suit. And then, we've progressed dramatically, year after year. So, if you extrapolate this, you're really going to have something spectacular, something that anyone could own. So, you can have your own personal R2-D2-C3PO. And I think at scale, this would cost something like, I don't know, $20,000, $30,000, probably less than a car is my prediction, long-term. It'll take us a minute to get to the long term. But fundamentally, at scale, the Optimus robot, you should be able to buy an Optimus robot for, I think, probably $20,000 to $30,000, long-term. And what can it do? It'll basically do anything you want. It can be a teacher or babysit your kids, it can walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries, just be your friend, serve drinks whatever you can think of, it will do. And, yeah, it's going to be awesome. I think this will be the biggest product ever of any kind, because I think everyone of the 8 billion people of Earth, I think everyone's going to want their Optimus buddy. And there's going to be maybe two. And then, they'll be producing products and services. I predict, actually, provided we address risks of digital superintelligence, 80% probability of good outcome, look on the bright side, the cup is 80% full, the cost of products and services will decline dramatically. And basically, anyone will be able to have any products and services they want. It will be an age of abundance the likes of which people have not, almost no one has envisioned. It will be something special. So now, one of the things we wanted to show tonight was that Optimus is not a canned video. It's not walled off. The Optimus robots will walk among you. Please, please be nice to the Optimus robots. You'll be able to walk right up to them and they'll serve drinks at the bar. I mean, it's a wild experience just to have humanoid robots and they're there, you're just in front of you. So yeah, with that, let's party!

Mario Nawfal

241,051 次观看 • 1 年前

Marco Rubio: We're not members of the ICC. We never signed that treaty, we never joined it. And they somehow claim that they have a right nonetheless to go after non-treaty members and put heads of state and others in jail. We've long had quarrels with them and we have lunatics and crazies involved in the ICC that are talking about charging members of the US military, maybe even the president or a future president with crimes and this not gonna happen, it's just not going to happen. If people want to sign it and be a part of that stupid organization they can, but we're not going to be a part of it and they're not going to apply their jurisdiction to Americans. That's just not going to happen. We're not going to tolerate it, now or in the future and we've warned them about it repeatedly. And now they're going to see the consequences of ignoring us.
0:46

Marco Rubio: We're not members of the ICC. We never signed that treaty, we never joined it. And they somehow claim that they have a right nonetheless to go after non-treaty members and put heads of state and others in jail. We've long had quarrels with them and we have lunatics and crazies involved in the ICC that are talking about charging members of the US military, maybe even the president or a future president with crimes and this not gonna happen, it's just not going to happen. If people want to sign it and be a part of that stupid organization they can, but we're not going to be a part of it and they're not going to apply their jurisdiction to Americans. That's just not going to happen. We're not going to tolerate it, now or in the future and we've warned them about it repeatedly. And now they're going to see the consequences of ignoring us.

Clash Report

288,230 次观看 • 13 天前

.President Donald J. Trump: It's been on the minds of people for a long time. They want to find out about the UFOs, and we're going to be releasing a lot of things that we have, and I think some of it's going to be very interesting to people.
0:37

.President Donald J. Trump: It's been on the minds of people for a long time. They want to find out about the UFOs, and we're going to be releasing a lot of things that we have, and I think some of it's going to be very interesting to people.

Rapid Response 47

341,179 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨 JUST IN: Nick Shirley says there "BETTER" be accountability after his Somali video, or people will be furious "If President Trump's watching this, it's time to really get down to the nitty gritty and to make a difference in this place of Minnesota that is pretty much like Somaliland right now." "There better be change. People are demanding it. Investigations have been launched just from that video alone." "We work way too hard to be paying taxes. We work way too hard to be not knowing where our money is going. And at the end of the day, people in government, they work for us. We don't work for them." "It's their responsibility to hold these people accountable. If there's not something that's happened, people are going to be very frustrated." Nick shirley
0:37

🚨 JUST IN: Nick Shirley says there "BETTER" be accountability after his Somali video, or people will be furious "If President Trump's watching this, it's time to really get down to the nitty gritty and to make a difference in this place of Minnesota that is pretty much like Somaliland right now." "There better be change. People are demanding it. Investigations have been launched just from that video alone." "We work way too hard to be paying taxes. We work way too hard to be not knowing where our money is going. And at the end of the day, people in government, they work for us. We don't work for them." "It's their responsibility to hold these people accountable. If there's not something that's happened, people are going to be very frustrated." Nick shirley

Eric Daugherty

399,229 次观看 • 7 个月前

Collin Morikawa wants to hear more out of the Bethpage crowd ahead of the Ryder Cup and thinks it’s been “tame” so far: “I'll be honest, I think it's kind of tame so far, Tuesday and Wednesday. I know tomorrow is going to be pretty bad but I hope Friday is just absolute chaos. I'm all for it. I think it feeds into who we are and the American players and the American Team. We want it. Like we want to use that to our advantage. “I think every sport uses their home crowd to their advantage, and just because we don't play in a setting like this doesn't mean the craziness of New York and the rest of the country that people are traveling in from, it doesn't mean that we can't use that to our advantage. I think we really have to tap into that. I hope they come strong. Watching all these kids, I know they want autographs, but come Friday, I hope they go crazy.”
0:51

Collin Morikawa wants to hear more out of the Bethpage crowd ahead of the Ryder Cup and thinks it’s been “tame” so far: “I'll be honest, I think it's kind of tame so far, Tuesday and Wednesday. I know tomorrow is going to be pretty bad but I hope Friday is just absolute chaos. I'm all for it. I think it feeds into who we are and the American players and the American Team. We want it. Like we want to use that to our advantage. “I think every sport uses their home crowd to their advantage, and just because we don't play in a setting like this doesn't mean the craziness of New York and the rest of the country that people are traveling in from, it doesn't mean that we can't use that to our advantage. I think we really have to tap into that. I hope they come strong. Watching all these kids, I know they want autographs, but come Friday, I hope they go crazy.”

Flushing It

245,838 次观看 • 10 个月前

VP VANCE PREDICTED: PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GET ANGRY, AND RIGHTFULLY SO "This stuff we can and we should prosecute, and I'm just telling you, this is going to be a real problem, and the people are going to get really pissed at Senate Republicans if we don't have the U.S. attorneys on the ground to actually achieve justice. People are going to get angry, and rightfully so." If you want justice, you've got to empower the President of the United States to actually appoint the officers of justice all over the country. The Democrats are stalling that, and we're going to wake up in a couple of years, if we don't have more U.S. attorneys approved, if we don't have more judges approved, we're going to wake up in a couple of years and realize that we've done a lot of great work at the Trump administration, but justice is not being meted out as it should be because we don't have the people on the ground. That is a big problem, and I know that's somewhat unrelated to Arctic Frost, but it actually is related to Arctic Frost, because you cannot get the justice for the people who are targeted by the Biden administration unless we've got good people, especially in these U.S. attorneys offices, and that's something we've got to pay attention to over the next year. Spying on President Trump, prosecuting him, investigating senators, congressmen, and congressmen who are just aligned with the President of the United States some of this stuff is going to get covered by statute of limitations, but some of this stuff we can and we should prosecute, and I'm just telling you, this is going to be a real problem, and the people who watch your show are going to get really pissed at Senate Republicans, excuse my language, if we don't have the U.S. attorneys on the ground to actually achieve justice, people are going to get angry, and rightfully so. If you want justice, you've got to empower the President of the United States to actually appoint the officers of justice all over the country. The Democrats are stalling that, and we're going to wake up in a couple of years, if we don't have more U.S. attorneys approved, if we don't have more judges approved, we're going to wake up in a couple of years and realize that we've done a lot of great work at the Trump administration, but justice is not being meted out as it should be because we don't have the people on the ground. That is a big problem, and I know that's somewhat unrelated to Arctic Frost, but it actually is related to Arctic Frost, because you cannot get the justice for the people who are targeted by the Biden administration unless we've got good people, especially in these U.S. attorneys offices, and that's something we've got to pay attention to over the next year. Spying on President Trump, prosecuting him, investigating senators, congressmen, and congressmen who are just aligned with the President of the United States some of this stuff is going to get covered by statute of limitations, but some of this stuff we can and we should prosecute, and I'm just telling you, this is going to be a real problem, and the people who watch your show are going to get really pissed at Senate Republicans, excuse my language, if we don't have the U.S. attorneys on the ground to actually achieve justice, people are going to get angry, and rightfully so.
3:02

VP VANCE PREDICTED: PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GET ANGRY, AND RIGHTFULLY SO "This stuff we can and we should prosecute, and I'm just telling you, this is going to be a real problem, and the people are going to get really pissed at Senate Republicans if we don't have the U.S. attorneys on the ground to actually achieve justice. People are going to get angry, and rightfully so." If you want justice, you've got to empower the President of the United States to actually appoint the officers of justice all over the country. The Democrats are stalling that, and we're going to wake up in a couple of years, if we don't have more U.S. attorneys approved, if we don't have more judges approved, we're going to wake up in a couple of years and realize that we've done a lot of great work at the Trump administration, but justice is not being meted out as it should be because we don't have the people on the ground. That is a big problem, and I know that's somewhat unrelated to Arctic Frost, but it actually is related to Arctic Frost, because you cannot get the justice for the people who are targeted by the Biden administration unless we've got good people, especially in these U.S. attorneys offices, and that's something we've got to pay attention to over the next year. Spying on President Trump, prosecuting him, investigating senators, congressmen, and congressmen who are just aligned with the President of the United States some of this stuff is going to get covered by statute of limitations, but some of this stuff we can and we should prosecute, and I'm just telling you, this is going to be a real problem, and the people who watch your show are going to get really pissed at Senate Republicans, excuse my language, if we don't have the U.S. attorneys on the ground to actually achieve justice, people are going to get angry, and rightfully so. If you want justice, you've got to empower the President of the United States to actually appoint the officers of justice all over the country. The Democrats are stalling that, and we're going to wake up in a couple of years, if we don't have more U.S. attorneys approved, if we don't have more judges approved, we're going to wake up in a couple of years and realize that we've done a lot of great work at the Trump administration, but justice is not being meted out as it should be because we don't have the people on the ground. That is a big problem, and I know that's somewhat unrelated to Arctic Frost, but it actually is related to Arctic Frost, because you cannot get the justice for the people who are targeted by the Biden administration unless we've got good people, especially in these U.S. attorneys offices, and that's something we've got to pay attention to over the next year. Spying on President Trump, prosecuting him, investigating senators, congressmen, and congressmen who are just aligned with the President of the United States some of this stuff is going to get covered by statute of limitations, but some of this stuff we can and we should prosecute, and I'm just telling you, this is going to be a real problem, and the people who watch your show are going to get really pissed at Senate Republicans, excuse my language, if we don't have the U.S. attorneys on the ground to actually achieve justice, people are going to get angry, and rightfully so.

Svetlana Lokhova

254,325 次观看 • 6 个月前

"If you have ambitions to be a Professor at Yale, Harvard, or one of these big institutions, the way you do that is mostly by getting funding for research. It's by getting a lot of publishing - a lot flying around the world to talk about something. You need all of these things to bolster your reputation as an international expert in this area. Now, the best way to do that, at least in psychiatry but I suspect in other areas of medicine, is actually to collaborate with pharmaceutical companies to run clinical trials. They write the publications for you - most of it, they do a lot of the grunt work, they give you the protocols, and then, essentially, they fund you and fly you around the place. I used to remember, as a junior doctor, looking up to the Professors. And they would say, 'These drugs are safe and effective. There's not a lot of problems there.' ...What I've seen more and more is that they've been compromised, and that they have incentives tied to the money and to career advancement. That means that they can't be as forthright as they ought to be about these things. And it's gotten to a problem where these are the Professors who are training the doctors who are setting the tone for what is acceptable care out there. And I think that's one of the biggest problems out there." - @taperclinic
7:15

"If you have ambitions to be a Professor at Yale, Harvard, or one of these big institutions, the way you do that is mostly by getting funding for research. It's by getting a lot of publishing - a lot flying around the world to talk about something. You need all of these things to bolster your reputation as an international expert in this area. Now, the best way to do that, at least in psychiatry but I suspect in other areas of medicine, is actually to collaborate with pharmaceutical companies to run clinical trials. They write the publications for you - most of it, they do a lot of the grunt work, they give you the protocols, and then, essentially, they fund you and fly you around the place. I used to remember, as a junior doctor, looking up to the Professors. And they would say, 'These drugs are safe and effective. There's not a lot of problems there.' ...What I've seen more and more is that they've been compromised, and that they have incentives tied to the money and to career advancement. That means that they can't be as forthright as they ought to be about these things. And it's gotten to a problem where these are the Professors who are training the doctors who are setting the tone for what is acceptable care out there. And I think that's one of the biggest problems out there." - @taperclinic

Jan Jekielek

43,499 次观看 • 1 年前

Airtable's Howie Liu says that basically everyone will need to graduate from being ICs to ICs that manage teams of 20-30 agents: "The best developers today don't just sit there in front of their IDEs and synchronously talk to their agent." "[Instead], you have like 30 separate branches that are each being worked on by a different agent. And you can have the agents continue to update the branches based on human and other agent feedback." "And I think this whole idea of it taking hours for that entire loop to complete — agent pushes some changes, the changes get feedback from other agents or humans, the agent responds to that — that whole loop could be hours, not just minutes. So you're not going to just sit there and watch it one at a time." "But the powerful thing about this is, each one is still actually operating faster than a human engineer. One agent on one branch can do the work of maybe three humans, operating 3x as fast. So it's like a 10x leverage factor just for one agent." "But the best engineers are now able to multitask and say, 'I'm going to oversee my own little team of 20-30 agents working concurrently.'" "Everyone needs to graduate from being an IC to an IC manager of agents. Meaning, if you're a VC analyst, your job should no longer be to go synchronously research one company. You need to go and research like 30 companies, and do them all faster, better, and higher quality than you could before." "That's the greatest leap that is going to be challenging for a lot of people in a lot of roles. Because it's a totally different mentality in how you operate, and what your role is."
1:56

Airtable's Howie Liu says that basically everyone will need to graduate from being ICs to ICs that manage teams of 20-30 agents: "The best developers today don't just sit there in front of their IDEs and synchronously talk to their agent." "[Instead], you have like 30 separate branches that are each being worked on by a different agent. And you can have the agents continue to update the branches based on human and other agent feedback." "And I think this whole idea of it taking hours for that entire loop to complete — agent pushes some changes, the changes get feedback from other agents or humans, the agent responds to that — that whole loop could be hours, not just minutes. So you're not going to just sit there and watch it one at a time." "But the powerful thing about this is, each one is still actually operating faster than a human engineer. One agent on one branch can do the work of maybe three humans, operating 3x as fast. So it's like a 10x leverage factor just for one agent." "But the best engineers are now able to multitask and say, 'I'm going to oversee my own little team of 20-30 agents working concurrently.'" "Everyone needs to graduate from being an IC to an IC manager of agents. Meaning, if you're a VC analyst, your job should no longer be to go synchronously research one company. You need to go and research like 30 companies, and do them all faster, better, and higher quality than you could before." "That's the greatest leap that is going to be challenging for a lot of people in a lot of roles. Because it's a totally different mentality in how you operate, and what your role is."

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