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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: If Trump’s sanctions actually work, war may become inevitable Iran's economy is unquestionably worse than before the war, he says. Infrastructure is damaged, sanctions hurt, and Tehran is shifting toward a wartime economy. But Iran isn't thinking about surrender. It's preparing for another war. Marandi...

317,433 görüntüleme • 21 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran doesn't believe the war is over. According to Prof. Foad Izadi, the Iranian military is using the current lull to prepare for renewed confrontation with the United States, potentially for the remainder of Trump's presidency. Politically, Tehran is still entertaining diplomacy. Militarily, it's preparing for the next round. Izadi argues that Trump's economic pressure won't change that calculation. Iran's economy was already struggling before the war and is worse now. Power plants and infrastructure have been damaged, electricity shortages hurt industrial production, and sanctions are adding further pressure. But he argues that economic pain is not translating into political capitulation. Instead, the war has strengthened Iranian nationalism and hardened public attitudes against Washington and Israel. That doesn't mean Tehran wants another war. Izadi believes Iran is unlikely to strike first as long as the government can keep the economy functioning. But there is another potential trigger: Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah have effectively established Beirut as the red line. Hezbollah continues fighting Israel while Iran stays out directly, but Izadi says an Israeli strike on Beirut would bring Iran into the conflict. So Tehran's strategy appears to be patience. Keep the economy alive. Avoid firing first. Prepare for another American attack. And wait for the political clock in Washington and Israel to move. The problem is that everyone is waiting while preparing for war. And eventually, someone may decide they're tired of waiting. فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: Iran isn’t interested in another deal. It’s waiting for America to honor the last one. Washington appears to be betting that economic pressure will eventually force Iran back to the negotiating table. Prof. Mohammad Marandi thinks that fundamentally misunderstands Tehran’s position. Iran, he says, believes the negotiation is already over. Trump signed an agreement. Tehran now expects Washington to implement it, and until that happens, Marandi says there will be no new negotiations. “We have a deal. You signed that piece of paper. Whenever you implement the deal, then come talking.” That creates a dangerous problem. The U.S. is continuing its economic siege while Iran has explicitly warned that if Washington succeeds in seriously damaging its economy, Tehran will respond militarily. Iran cannot sanction American banks or shut down the U.S. economy, Marandi argues, so its response would be against U.S. economic assets, or assets it considers linked to Washington, across the region. Then America faces pressure to retaliate. And the cycle starts again. Marandi says a larger war in the coming weeks or months is now a serious possibility, whether triggered by Iranian retaliation, a desperate U.S. escalation, or another Israeli attack that pulls Washington back in. The two sides aren't negotiating toward the same finish line anymore. Washington is waiting for Iran to concede. Iran, meanwhile, is waiting for Washington to concede first. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

334,167 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's “Economic D-Day” could be a tripwire designed to drag him back into the Iran war Only weeks ago, Washington was openly discussing renewed strikes and regime change. Now Trump is leaning into economic warfare, secondary sanctions and diplomacy instead. Fmr. U.S. National Counterterrorism Center director Joe Kent welcomes that shift. He'd much rather argue about sanctions than watch Americans and Iranians start killing each other again. But there's something about it he finds deeply suspicious. Some of the same Iran hawks who were demanding Trump restart the bombing are suddenly enthusiastic supporters of the sanctions strategy. And Joe wonders whether Trump understands exactly where it could lead. Iran has already threatened that if Washington seriously attempts to economically strangle it, Tehran may respond militarily. And America has left troops, bases and ships across the region within range of Iranian missiles and drones. So the escalation ladder is already sitting there: Sanctions begin to bite, Iran concludes its economy is being placed under existential threat, strikes American interests, Washington retaliates, and suddenly the war is back on. That concern became even more significant after Sec. of War Hegseth was asked whether kinetic strikes are now effectively on pause. His answer was clear: America is “by no means” foreclosing military action; if Iran “overplays their hand” or attacks the U.S military, Washington will do what it needs to do. For Joe, that creates a dangerous paradox. If Trump's sanctions don't work, Iran doesn't concede and pressure builds in Washington to escalate. But if the sanctions do work and begin seriously threatening the Iranian economy, Tehran has even more incentive to retaliate militarily rather than simply allow itself to be strangled. Either road can lead back to the same place. And Joe thinks some of the people around Trump know it. Joe Kent

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315,725 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is trying to strangle Iran economically, but Prof. Mohammad Marandi says Tehran will answer with force and keep escalating even if the U.S hits back harder. Washington just sanctioned a Turkish bank it describes as a critical financial lifeline for Iran, cutting it out of the U.S financial system. At almost exactly the same time, Iran began firing anti-ship missiles at ships using the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. Prof. Marandi says those two developments should be viewed as directly connected. Iran can't sanction America in return, so if Washington intensifies the economic siege, Tehran's answer will be to intensify pressure on Hormuz. And Prof. Marandi says Iran still has plenty of rungs left on that escalation ladder: restrict more shipping, potentially shut down Hormuz altogether, expand disruption beyond the Strait, and accept whatever American retaliation follows. He says this is no longer simply a negotiation over sanctions, shipping fees, or freedom of navigation; Iran will not agree to fully normalize the Strait of Hormuz while the war in Gaza continues. In other words, Washington may believe it can squeeze Tehran economically until it compromises over Hormuz, but Prof. Marandi is describing almost the opposite calculation inside Iran: The harder America squeezes, the more Iran will use the one weapon capable of exporting that economic pain back to America and the rest of the world: Hormuz. And that leaves Washington facing a brutal equation: Economic war triggers military retaliation. Military retaliation threatens global trade. And the final Iranian off-ramp now runs all the way through Gaza. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's latest attack struck U.S military facilities in Kuwait and the UAE, but the timing may be more important than the attack itself. The previous U.S-Iran exchange had effectively stopped. Washington decided not to retaliate against Iran's last barrage and reports suggest Trump’s team is actively trying to avoid another major escalation before the midterms. Iran attacked again anyway. And to understand why, look at what Washington is doing behind the scenes. The U.S is intensifying its economic campaign against Tehran, reportedly instructing embassies around the world to pressure governments to cut Iranian trade, with countries, companies and individuals potentially threatened with sanctions or a loss of access to the dollar system. Meanwhile, the UAE has become an important partner in Washington's attempt to keep oil moving through Hormuz and tighten the economic screws on Iran. Then Iran hits U.S-linked military infrastructure in the UAE and Kuwait. That makes these strikes look less like retaliation for something America already did and more like a warning about what comes next: If Washington turns the Gulf into the infrastructure for an economic war against Iran, Tehran may turn that same infrastructure into the battlefield. And that creates a serious problem for Trump's apparent pivot from military war to economic war. Sanctions were supposed to provide a way of squeezing Iran without another major exchange of missiles. Iran may be signalling that it doesn't intend to let America separate the two. Brandon Weichert

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