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PROFESSOR EXPLAINS…. MNAV,ATM & Bitcoin Torque A simple video explaining a few basic concept to look at Bitcoin treasury companies. Share this with anyone who’s just starting out and it’s confused what an mNAV is ? 🤭

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Professor₿ 🟧

10,569 subscribers

28,487 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

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10 Kommentare

Profilbild von Michael 🪽
Michael 🪽vor 1 Jahr

Not gonna lie, I’m having trouble staying focused on this one lol. I blame biology.

Profilbild von Professor₿ 🟧
Professor₿ 🟧vor 1 Jahr

😂😂😂

Profilbild von UnderstandBTC
UnderstandBTCvor 1 Jahr

Why is everyone talking about Bitcoin? Governments, Companies, your neighbors, your kids. What is it? We can help you Understand Bitcoin in a easy, convenient, thorough 1-on-1 overview.

Profilbild von Reed Allot ₿
Reed Allot ₿vor 1 Jahr

Professor can you do a video on how to get through a bear market.

Profilbild von Professor₿ 🟧
Professor₿ 🟧vor 1 Jahr

Don’t look at the charts! Invest with conviction! There’s nothing else out there to buy anyway 🤷‍♀️

Profilbild von Ben Hurr
Ben Hurrvor 1 Jahr

@ProfessorB21 Breaking down MNAV and Torque like this shows why Bitcoin treasuries are a chess game—most CFOs are still playing checkers.

Profilbild von kraqck
kraqckvor 1 Jahr

Beautiful -- all I hear is greek.

Profilbild von Crash22r
Crash22rvor 1 Jahr

👏🏽

Profilbild von ₿ariksis
₿ariksisvor 1 Jahr

nice explanation! 😃

Profilbild von SRS
SRSvor 1 Jahr

Great explainer, thank you

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Making Sense Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies If you've been following me on X you’ll know that I have recently been floating a lot of my updated thoughts on the Bitcoin Treasury space. Here I have synthesised all of my ideas and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can find the link in the comments. If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to do is acknowledge an important fact which is that Strategy, as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, is an anomaly. What do I mean by that? Strategy’s success has been defined by a number of unique factors and circumstances, most of which cannot be replicated again by other Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Specifically, there are 6 things that stand out to me. 1. Before adopting Bitcoin, Strategy was a billion dollar company with an operating business that was generating roughly $50M in cash a year. 2. Until the introduction of the ETF's in January 2024, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin. 3. Until this year, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. 4. Strategy was issuing multiple, billion dollar, zero coupon, unsecured convertible notes at +50% conversion premiums. 5. Strategy has Michael Saylor, who, you don’t need me to tell you, is in a league of his own. 6. For many reasons, including those I’ve just mentioned, Strategy has benefitted disproportionately from the broader sentiment around Bitcoin. In other words, for the best part of 4 years, Strategy had zero competition for either capital or attention. As a result, it became a magnet for capital from anyone who wanted exposure to Bitcoin and it attracted inflows that were beyond what fundamentals alone would maybe justify. Therefore, using Strategy as a blueprint for the performance that you can expect from other Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a bad idea. Using Strategy as a blueprint for how to operate a Bitcoin Treasury Company is a good idea. Now let’s break down what’s unfolded over the last 6 months or so. Between May and June of this year, when we witnessed a flood of new Bitcoin Treasury Companies, we entered what I refer to as the frenzy phase. The frenzy phase was driven almost entirely by sentiment. By sentiment I simply mean emotion. Since then, as sentiment has slowly faded, the market has increasingly priced Bitcoin Treasury Companies based more on fundamentals. By fundamentals I simply mean facts. So where as sentiment is driven by emotion and hype, fundamentals are driven by facts and reason. The problem is that when you price Bitcoin Treasury Companies on fundamentals, you realise that many of them are almost entirely dependent on sentiment in order to expand mNAV so they can raise capital via the common stock ATM to buy Bitcoin and generate Bitcoin Yield. However, for me, raising capital via the common stock ATM and recycling it into Bitcoin is not genuine value creation — it’s value transfer. That’s not to say you shouldn’t leverage the ATM as and when necessary — you should. However, if your business model as a Bitcoin Treasury Company no longer works when “sentiment is low” then you have neither a business model nor a business. You’re the equivalent of a meme stock except with Bitcoin on your balance sheet. On that basis, companies shouldn’t expect to trade at a premium if the common stock ATM is the only way they raise capital. I’m not saying they won’t trade at a premium — I’m saying that companies shouldn’t expect to. Now, between July and now, we’ve obviously seen mNAVs compress substantially and so the frenzy phase is over which means that the days of automatically being granted generous mNAV multiples is also over. So now we are in the maturity phase. The maturity phase is going to be defined by being able to offer a differentiated value proposition and having a sustainable business model that can generate Bitcoin Yield in any environment independent of sentiment. In other words, they can generate Bitcoin Yield when trading at or below 1 mNAV. So essentially now, Bitcoin Treasury Companies have to work for their mNAV multiples — as it should be. Following the maturity phase will be the consolidation phase where capital, Bitcoin and ultimately market share will converge towards a small number of Bitcoin Treasury Companies that will dominate the entire industry. I should clarify that I am referring predominantly to pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Companies — companies who are valued based solely on their Bitcoin strategy. Now, with everything that I’ve said, how should you evaluate Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Hopefully over the next few weeks I’m going to string together a video with my valuation framework. In the meantime, a basic test is that I use is this: How much Bitcoin Yield can the company generate over X period of time — you decide what that period of time is — if it traded at 1x mNAV over that entire period? If the answer is 0, then they are probably entirely dependent on raising capital via the common stock ATM which means they likely don’t deserve a premium. If the answer is >0, then they are probably innovating through the use of other instruments — like converts and preferred products — which means they likely do deserve a premium and so whatever number you come up with should be used as the base for your valuation. Now, don’t be fooled. The Bitcoin Treasury Company space is, not entirely, but to a large degree, a zero-sum game. Every Dollar raised by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. Every Bitcoin purchased by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. It’s only because we are early that everyone is incentivised to essentially hold hands and cheer each other on. However, make no mistake, everyone involved is tacitly well aware that they are all competing for the same finite amount of capital and the same fixed amount of Bitcoin. Thus, the reality is that, by definition, not every Bitcoin Treasury Company is going to succeed. So choose your horses and jockeys wisely. As a side note, with the amount of Bitcoin Treasury Companies now desperately chasing and competing for the same capital from institutions, who do you think has the leverage; the Bitcoin Treasury Companies or the institutions? I’ll let you decide. Before I close, I want to leave you guys with this. There is a small subset of people invested in Bitcoin Treasury Companies who are desperately clinging on to their bags because they believe “sentiment will return.” These people are completely missing the point. My friends, if your investing philosophy is based on sentiment, you are simply not going to last. You want to base your decisions, as far as possible, on fundamentals. As investors, you either adapt and update your mental models based on how things are and not how you want them to be — or you get left behind. With that in mind: Never get caught up in tribalism. Never get attached to your beliefs. Always think critically. Always think independently. Always seek Truth.
10:20

Making Sense Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies If you've been following me on X you’ll know that I have recently been floating a lot of my updated thoughts on the Bitcoin Treasury space. Here I have synthesised all of my ideas and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can find the link in the comments. If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to do is acknowledge an important fact which is that Strategy, as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, is an anomaly. What do I mean by that? Strategy’s success has been defined by a number of unique factors and circumstances, most of which cannot be replicated again by other Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Specifically, there are 6 things that stand out to me. 1. Before adopting Bitcoin, Strategy was a billion dollar company with an operating business that was generating roughly $50M in cash a year. 2. Until the introduction of the ETF's in January 2024, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin. 3. Until this year, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. 4. Strategy was issuing multiple, billion dollar, zero coupon, unsecured convertible notes at +50% conversion premiums. 5. Strategy has Michael Saylor, who, you don’t need me to tell you, is in a league of his own. 6. For many reasons, including those I’ve just mentioned, Strategy has benefitted disproportionately from the broader sentiment around Bitcoin. In other words, for the best part of 4 years, Strategy had zero competition for either capital or attention. As a result, it became a magnet for capital from anyone who wanted exposure to Bitcoin and it attracted inflows that were beyond what fundamentals alone would maybe justify. Therefore, using Strategy as a blueprint for the performance that you can expect from other Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a bad idea. Using Strategy as a blueprint for how to operate a Bitcoin Treasury Company is a good idea. Now let’s break down what’s unfolded over the last 6 months or so. Between May and June of this year, when we witnessed a flood of new Bitcoin Treasury Companies, we entered what I refer to as the frenzy phase. The frenzy phase was driven almost entirely by sentiment. By sentiment I simply mean emotion. Since then, as sentiment has slowly faded, the market has increasingly priced Bitcoin Treasury Companies based more on fundamentals. By fundamentals I simply mean facts. So where as sentiment is driven by emotion and hype, fundamentals are driven by facts and reason. The problem is that when you price Bitcoin Treasury Companies on fundamentals, you realise that many of them are almost entirely dependent on sentiment in order to expand mNAV so they can raise capital via the common stock ATM to buy Bitcoin and generate Bitcoin Yield. However, for me, raising capital via the common stock ATM and recycling it into Bitcoin is not genuine value creation — it’s value transfer. That’s not to say you shouldn’t leverage the ATM as and when necessary — you should. However, if your business model as a Bitcoin Treasury Company no longer works when “sentiment is low” then you have neither a business model nor a business. You’re the equivalent of a meme stock except with Bitcoin on your balance sheet. On that basis, companies shouldn’t expect to trade at a premium if the common stock ATM is the only way they raise capital. I’m not saying they won’t trade at a premium — I’m saying that companies shouldn’t expect to. Now, between July and now, we’ve obviously seen mNAVs compress substantially and so the frenzy phase is over which means that the days of automatically being granted generous mNAV multiples is also over. So now we are in the maturity phase. The maturity phase is going to be defined by being able to offer a differentiated value proposition and having a sustainable business model that can generate Bitcoin Yield in any environment independent of sentiment. In other words, they can generate Bitcoin Yield when trading at or below 1 mNAV. So essentially now, Bitcoin Treasury Companies have to work for their mNAV multiples — as it should be. Following the maturity phase will be the consolidation phase where capital, Bitcoin and ultimately market share will converge towards a small number of Bitcoin Treasury Companies that will dominate the entire industry. I should clarify that I am referring predominantly to pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Companies — companies who are valued based solely on their Bitcoin strategy. Now, with everything that I’ve said, how should you evaluate Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Hopefully over the next few weeks I’m going to string together a video with my valuation framework. In the meantime, a basic test is that I use is this: How much Bitcoin Yield can the company generate over X period of time — you decide what that period of time is — if it traded at 1x mNAV over that entire period? If the answer is 0, then they are probably entirely dependent on raising capital via the common stock ATM which means they likely don’t deserve a premium. If the answer is >0, then they are probably innovating through the use of other instruments — like converts and preferred products — which means they likely do deserve a premium and so whatever number you come up with should be used as the base for your valuation. Now, don’t be fooled. The Bitcoin Treasury Company space is, not entirely, but to a large degree, a zero-sum game. Every Dollar raised by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. Every Bitcoin purchased by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. It’s only because we are early that everyone is incentivised to essentially hold hands and cheer each other on. However, make no mistake, everyone involved is tacitly well aware that they are all competing for the same finite amount of capital and the same fixed amount of Bitcoin. Thus, the reality is that, by definition, not every Bitcoin Treasury Company is going to succeed. So choose your horses and jockeys wisely. As a side note, with the amount of Bitcoin Treasury Companies now desperately chasing and competing for the same capital from institutions, who do you think has the leverage; the Bitcoin Treasury Companies or the institutions? I’ll let you decide. Before I close, I want to leave you guys with this. There is a small subset of people invested in Bitcoin Treasury Companies who are desperately clinging on to their bags because they believe “sentiment will return.” These people are completely missing the point. My friends, if your investing philosophy is based on sentiment, you are simply not going to last. You want to base your decisions, as far as possible, on fundamentals. As investors, you either adapt and update your mental models based on how things are and not how you want them to be — or you get left behind. With that in mind: Never get caught up in tribalism. Never get attached to your beliefs. Always think critically. Always think independently. Always seek Truth.

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36:47

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Adam Livingston

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53,492 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

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Gareth Jenkinson

26,560 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

NEW: Founder who called Bitcoin early says this is NOT a bear market. Yves Choueifaty & Alexandre Laizet ⚡️ explain what Saylor is really doing: 📌 1694 Bank of England model 📌 Why owning MSTR makes YOU the STRC issuer 📌 100M millionaires. 21M Bitcoin. Do the math. Watch ⚡️ TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Cold Open 01:49 Bitcoin ISN'T In A Bear Market? (Volatility Discussion) 07:13 Bitcoin's Value During Geopolitical Tensions 12:46 Bitcoin, Treasuries & Historical Context of Private Banking 23:41 Digital Capital & Credit vs Digital Money Framing 30:09 mNAV & Speculation: MSTR vs. Traditional Companies 35:48 The Power of STRC: Saylor Is Issuing Perpetual Credit 40:05 The Opportunity of Buying At mNAV Less Than One 43:45 Alexandre On Strategic Growth For Bitcoin Treasury Companies 51:54 Stretch Is The Future Of Money
58:52

NEW: Founder who called Bitcoin early says this is NOT a bear market. Yves Choueifaty & Alexandre Laizet ⚡️ explain what Saylor is really doing: 📌 1694 Bank of England model 📌 Why owning MSTR makes YOU the STRC issuer 📌 100M millionaires. 21M Bitcoin. Do the math. Watch ⚡️ TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Cold Open 01:49 Bitcoin ISN'T In A Bear Market? (Volatility Discussion) 07:13 Bitcoin's Value During Geopolitical Tensions 12:46 Bitcoin, Treasuries & Historical Context of Private Banking 23:41 Digital Capital & Credit vs Digital Money Framing 30:09 mNAV & Speculation: MSTR vs. Traditional Companies 35:48 The Power of STRC: Saylor Is Issuing Perpetual Credit 40:05 The Opportunity of Buying At mNAV Less Than One 43:45 Alexandre On Strategic Growth For Bitcoin Treasury Companies 51:54 Stretch Is The Future Of Money

BitcoinTreasuries.NET

17,526 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 $MSTR's Saylor just said Strategy may sell its Bitcoin or $BTC derivatives while trading below 1x mNAV in the 'best interest of the shareholders and Bitcoin community.'
1:05

🚨 $MSTR's Saylor just said Strategy may sell its Bitcoin or $BTC derivatives while trading below 1x mNAV in the 'best interest of the shareholders and Bitcoin community.'

LuxAlgo

135,759 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

JUST IN: Michael Saylor explains the 3 types of Bitcoin treasury companies he expects to see emerge in the market over the next few years. 1. Bitcoin credit issuers (100-1,000x ROI) 2. Strong Bitcoin players (10-20x ROI) 3. Small Bitcoin equities (2-4x ROI)
4:43

JUST IN: Michael Saylor explains the 3 types of Bitcoin treasury companies he expects to see emerge in the market over the next few years. 1. Bitcoin credit issuers (100-1,000x ROI) 2. Strong Bitcoin players (10-20x ROI) 3. Small Bitcoin equities (2-4x ROI)

The ₿itcoin Therapist

155,286 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

A discussion between Bob Dewey, Phong Le, and me on why Bitcoin Treasury Companies exist, what the first real stress test for Digital Credit taught us, and the opportunity ahead for Bitcoin-backed financial innovation. TIMESTAMPS 0:04 - Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Exist 7:22 - Financial Engineering Vs. Financial Innovation 14:24 - What Makes Bitcoin Treasury Companies Durable 18:42 - Does Bitcoin Need Treasury Companies? 22:20 - Addressing Bitcoin Treasury Company Criticism 26:46 - Growing Demand For Bitcoin-Backed Products 30:11 - What Has Surprised The CEOs Most 36:06 - The Evolution Of Digital Credit Products 45:10 - Lessons From The First Market Stress Test 53:10 - Bitcoin Market Depth And Liquidity 55:21 - Why Selling Bitcoin Is Not A Contradiction 1:03:37 - The Future Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies $MSTR $ASST $STRC $SATA $BTC
1:07:50

A discussion between Bob Dewey, Phong Le, and me on why Bitcoin Treasury Companies exist, what the first real stress test for Digital Credit taught us, and the opportunity ahead for Bitcoin-backed financial innovation. TIMESTAMPS 0:04 - Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Exist 7:22 - Financial Engineering Vs. Financial Innovation 14:24 - What Makes Bitcoin Treasury Companies Durable 18:42 - Does Bitcoin Need Treasury Companies? 22:20 - Addressing Bitcoin Treasury Company Criticism 26:46 - Growing Demand For Bitcoin-Backed Products 30:11 - What Has Surprised The CEOs Most 36:06 - The Evolution Of Digital Credit Products 45:10 - Lessons From The First Market Stress Test 53:10 - Bitcoin Market Depth And Liquidity 55:21 - Why Selling Bitcoin Is Not A Contradiction 1:03:37 - The Future Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies $MSTR $ASST $STRC $SATA $BTC

Matt Cole

97,826 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen