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⚡️ Putin publicly acknowledged Russia's fuel problems for the first time During a government meeting, Putin said that queues have already formed at Russian gas stations and that the required grades of gasoline are not always available. He also revealed that Russia has begun using its strategic fuel reserves....

183,479 просмотров • 15 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have reduced gasoline production in Russia by approximately a quarter compared to June of last year, while emergency shutdowns at plants have also decreased exports of petroleum products. For the first time in many years, Moscow is preparing to import gasoline by sea, and the government has established a separate interagency task force to ensure fuel supplies to the regions. On June 28, Putin stated that the top priority for fuel distribution is the army and support for the agricultural sector ahead of the harvest. According to estimates from the Russian ministry of agriculture, the country requires about 4.7 million tons of diesel fuel and 630-690 thousand tons of gasoline annually to carry out all seasonal field work. The spring sowing campaign has already consumed nearly 2 million tons of diesel. Harvesting, autumn field work, and grain transportation require another approximately 2-3 million tons of diesel, with peak demand concentrated in July-September. Putin claims that current gasoline reserves stand at around 1.7 million tons. We know Putin constantly lies, but even these volumes are insufficient to simultaneously meet military needs, the agricultural sector, and civilian market demand without additional resource redistribution. Let’s see if Putin can get help from abroad. Belarus is the most accessible source of supply. Throughout 2025-2026, Minsk has increased deliveries of gasoline and diesel to Russia to several tens of thousands of tons per month. However, Belarus’s capabilities are limited by its two oil refineries and its own domestic demand. Even a significant increase in exports would cover only a small portion of Russia’s seasonal needs. Kazakhstan is considering supplying Russia with about 50 thousand tons of AI-92 gasoline. At the same time, the country is carrying out repairs at the Atyrau Refinery, entering its own high-demand harvest season, and maintains export restrictions on gasoline and diesel. Even if the delivery occurs, its volume will not have a significant impact on the overall balance of the Russian market. China theoretically has the greatest potential to help Russia. According to expert estimates, Chinese companies could supply up to 350 thousand tons of gasoline and about 100 thousand tons of diesel per month. However, the main obstacle remains financial settlements, particularly the risk of secondary sanctions. Sea imports from Asia can only be used as a temporary measure. They are more expensive than domestic production, require more complex logistics, and cannot quickly compensate for the losses from major Russian refineries. The geographical factor must also be taken into account. Supplies from China can primarily cover the Far East and parts of Eastern Siberia. Sea imports would arrive at western ports. Meanwhile, the greatest need for diesel fuel is in the agricultural regions of European Russia - the Central Black Earth region, the Volga region, Krasnodar region, Rostov region, and Stavropol region - where harvesting is underway and the main grain production is concentrated. However, Ukrainian strikes target not only refineries but also oil depots. This means that even with increased imports, there will be nowhere to store large volumes of fuel. ‼️ Thus, external assistance will not save Russia from a fuel shortage. What Russia can do - and is already doing - is to lower fuel quality requirements, allowing the production of gasoline and diesel to lower environmental standards. In parallel, the Russian government is already discussing the possibility of a complete ban on diesel exports. There will not be enough gasoline and diesel for everyone in Russia, but according to Putin, there will definitely be enough for the army. And therefore, Ukrainian drones still have a sufficiently long list of targets.

Anton Gerashchenko

83,908 просмотров • 13 дней назад