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Putin: The ‘Oreshnik’ missile system can be equipped with nuclear warheads.

33,885 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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🇷🇺 RUSSIA'S "UNINTERCEPTABLE" HYPERSONIC MISSILE GOES LIVE IN BELARUS - BY NEW YEAR'S Belarus just confirmed: the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile system will be on combat duty in December 2025. That means Putin will have nuclear-capable missiles that can hit anywhere in Europe, travel at Mach 10+, and evade existing European defenses - deployed roughly 60 km from Minsk by year’s end. What Oreshnik is: An intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) derived from Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh ICBM. It carries multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) - six warheads, each dispersing submunitions, a capability previously associated almost exclusively with nuclear systems. Estimates go up to 36 submunitions per missile. The speed: Putin claims speeds up to Mach 10. Ukrainian military officials told CNN it reached Mach 11. Russian officials insist its warheads are effectively immune to interception. The range: Russia’s missile forces chief says Oreshnik can reach all of Europe. Russian state media claims: 11 minutes to Poland 17 minutes to NATO headquarters in Brussels First combat use: November 21, 2024 - strike on Dnipro, Ukraine. The missile reportedly carried inert or “dummy” warheads, but the kinetic energy alone caused significant damage. A CSIS director noted that even non-explosive hypersonic impacts can be devastating. Why it matters: Most European missile defenses are ineffective against Oreshnik. It flies above the engagement envelope of many systems and descends too quickly for terminal defenses like Patriot. Only Arrow 3 and SM-3 Block IIA have theoretical intercept capability - and inventories are limited. The conventional threat: In a NATO conflict, Russia could strike air bases, command centers, and missile sites with conventional Oreshniks, achieving strategic effects without using nuclear weapons. Foreign Policy notes it may take dozens of Iskanders to neutralize a major air base, but far fewer Oreshniks. Production status: August 1, 2025: Putin says Oreshnik entered service and first batch delivered November 4, 2025: Putin claims serial production underway The constraint: Zelensky claims Russia can produce only about six Oreshnik missiles per year. Ukrainian forces also claim one system was destroyed at Kapustin Yar, leaving two operational. The deployment: Belarusian President Lukashenko confirmed combat duty by December: “Oreshnik is a scary weapon. It will be put on combat duty in December.” Satellite imagery in late August 2025 showed launch-site preparation about 60 km south of Minsk. The strategic shift: Belarus already hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Adding IRBMs places most European capitals within minutes of impact and shortens NATO reaction time dramatically. Expert assessment: Nonproliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis says Oreshnik combines existing technologies rather than introducing revolutionary ones. A University of Oslo defense expert estimates no more than 10% new components. However, analyst Mathieu Boulegue argues its real value is psychological - intimidating Western audiences rather than changing battlefield dynamics. Putin’s messaging: Putin warned Oreshnik could be used against NATO allies enabling Ukrainian strikes inside Russia. In December 2024, he said the missile brings Russia “close to having no need to use nuclear weapons.” The context: The November 2024 strike came days after Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear response to include certain conventional attacks supported by nuclear powers. What’s actually happening: Russia is deploying intermediate-range missiles banned under the INF Treaty until the U.S. withdrawal in 2019 - capable of delivering conventional or nuclear warheads along trajectories Europe struggles to intercept. Decades of NATO base consolidation mean airpower is concentrated in a few high-value sites, making them uniquely vulnerable to Oreshnik’s submunition dispersal. Bottom line: By December 31, 2025, Russia will have Oreshnik missiles on combat alert in Belarus - roughly 60 km from Minsk - aimed at NATO bases, command centers, and capitals. 11 minutes to Warsaw. 17 minutes to Brussels. Conventional or nuclear. You don’t know which until impact. The deterrence calculus has shifted. Russia can now threaten massive conventional damage without crossing the nuclear threshold - using missiles Europe largely cannot stop. And they’re going live in 2 weeks. Source: The Kyiv Independent, CNN, Defense Feeds, Foreign Policy, Business Standard, TASS

Mario Nawfal

46,590 views • 8 months ago