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Quantitative tightening has quietly come to a halt. This shift ends the largest liquidity withdrawal we’ve seen since 2022. When QT stopped last cycle, equities moved sharply higher within weeks. If liquidity is truly turning, Bitcoin and other risk assets will feel it first. December could mark the inflection point.

81,002 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Powell is set to wrap up his controversial eight-year term. Let’s break down his market-moving key decisions in just three minutes 👇 As the invisible puppet master behind the crypto market, every major call he’s made has swung Bitcoin’s price up and down. • 2018: A liquidity winter amid aggressive tightening After taking office in February, Powell stuck to monetary normalization and hiked rates four times within the year. His aggressive liquidity drain pushed capital costs higher, sending Bitcoin into a prolonged downtrend that bottomed out at $3,000 that December. • 2019: A rebound catalyst from policy pivot Faced with mounting growth headwinds, Powell put rate hikes on hold early in the year and delivered the first rate cut in a decade that July. Liquidity sentiment rebounded instantly, and Bitcoin front-ran the signal to hit a interim peak back in June. • 2020: Massive liquidity injection amid the pandemic crash Following the historic March 312 market meltdown, Powell cut rates to near zero and unleashed unlimited quantitative easing. The unprecedented flood of capital triggered a global asset shortage, directly fueling Bitcoin’s epic bull run into 2021. • 2021: The final rally fueled by lingering easy monetary policy Even as inflation heated up, Powell maintained a dovish stance throughout the year. This window of abundant liquidity backed Bitcoin’s landmark high in April, before notching a new all-time high ahead of the tapering announcement in November. • 2022: Aggressive tightening as an inflation hawk To correct its earlier misjudgment on inflation, the Fed kicked off its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades starting in March. Global USD liquidity rushed back home, and Bitcoin crumbled under the brutal tightening pressure, hitting a cycle trough in November 2022. • 2023: Targeted liquidity backstop amid the banking crisis Amid the regional bank collapse chaos in March, Powell injected targeted liquidity via special Fed tools. This implicit market backstop restored risk sentiment, and Bitcoin showcased strong safe-haven properties to rally against the trend that month. • 2024: A new cycle ignited by the restart of rate cuts With the rate-cut cycle officially kicking off in September, the liquidity floodgates reopened once again. Strong easing expectations pushed Bitcoin to break its previous high as early as March, rallying all the way to its peak in October 2025. • 2026: Uncertainty lingers as his term draws to a close Powell chaired his final FOMC meeting this April, and his neutral stance heading into departure has left the market clouded with uncertainty. With his official exit due in May, capital turned cautious and retreated, triggering a predictable market pullback. Looking back over these eight years, every major surge and slump in Bitcoin has essentially moved in lockstep with Powell’s interest rate decisions. Now, this defining figure of the era is drawing the curtain on his tenure at the helm.

Marcos Crypto

56,471 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."

Sense Receptor

39,191 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY... My good friend Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes nailed it: This isn't a "Great Debasement" trade. If it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall. Neither is happening. THE REAL DRIVER: CHINA The People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year. And they'll likely do the same again this year. This aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge. You see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers. Why? The PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore. So when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto. And because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price. Bitcoin gets none of this flow. THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM Michael's research shows something critical: Cryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet. And Global Liquidity is starting to slow. During the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k. In the next upswing, it gained over $100k. Now liquidity is peaking again. Bond term premia have stopped rising. Bitcoin is flatlining. The correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad. And the cycle is turning against crypto. THE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING On October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history. $19B wiped out in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts blown up. Bitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000. Order book depth collapsed 98%. This was a stress test And Bitcoin failed. THE "HEDGE" THAT ISN'T During recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland: Gold rose 8.6%. Bitcoin dropped 6.6%. NYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an "ATM" during crises. Investors sell it first to raise cash. That's not a hedge. That's a liquidity source. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels. They're not touching Bitcoin. THE MINING DEATH SPIRAL Hashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November. Below breakeven for most operations. 2025 was the "harshest margin environment of all time." ROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days. In 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months. AI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity. The squeeze is structural. WHERE THIS IS HEADING Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week: "There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar." Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape. The BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization. And ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance. Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior. A new monetary age is coming. And Bitcoin isn't part of it. MY TAKE My good friend Michael is right: Monetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade. But Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply. It's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity. And that liquidity is peaking. When Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... When the asset fails every stress test thrown at it... There's a serious problem.

George Noble

133,893 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

🚨 WARNING: CHINA’S REAL ESTATE BUBBLE JUST COLLAPSED!! China’s real estate just crashed 25% and wiped out TRILLIONS. But this is not a China-only crisis. It’s a GLOBAL market event. Stocks. Metals. Crypto. If you hold any assets right now, you MUST know what's coming next: This is a global liquidity event in motion. The collapse of the largest property bubble in modern history. For decades, China’s economy was built on one thing: Real estate. Developers borrowed endlessly. Households concentrated wealth into property. Local governments funded themselves through land sales. That entire system is now breaking. Home sales are collapsing. Prices are falling. Developers are defaulting. Liquidity is evaporating. Confidence is disappearing fast. And when housing breaks in an economy this large - everything gets hit. Banks absorb losses. Consumers cut spending. Construction activity freezes. Debt stress spreads. THIS IS EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY SERIOUS. Because China is not just a domestic economy. It is the second-largest economy in the world. And when China slows - global demand slows. That means commodities get crushed. Industrial metals weaken. Energy demand falls. Export economies take damage. And then financial markets react. Global equities reprice lower. Bond markets shift into risk-off mode. Emerging markets face capital flight. And risk assets get hit hardest. Bitcoin does not escape liquidity shocks. When global stress rises, capital pulls back fast. Speculation gets unwound first. Crypto gets sold first. High-growth tech stocks get hit next. Then broader equities follow. That is how risk cascades through markets. This is how contagion starts. China’s housing market was one of the largest stores of wealth on Earth. Its collapse destroys confidence. And confidence is the foundation of every financial system. When confidence breaks in China - global markets feel it. And history is clear: property busts trigger financial stress. Financial stress destroys risk appetite. And when risk appetite disappears - stocks fall. Bitcoin falls harder. Speculative assets get crushed. This is not a correction. This is the deflation of a global macro bubble. And the market has not fully priced it in. I’ve spent years tracking macro turning points and market reactions like this. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll share it here. Follow and turn notifications on. I will post the warning BEFORE the headlines catch up.

0xNobler

39,529 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨 WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! JPMorgan will dump $165 BILLION in U.S. stocks right after the market opens. If you think this is a "drop in the ocean" and it won’t affect the markets... YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. Every time JP Morgan sells stocks, the S&P 500 drops 10–20%. And this isn't just about the stock market. It's about liquidity. It's about investor sentiment. And it's about a market that isn't prepared for what's coming. Let me explain: JPMorgan isn't some retail trader taking profits. It's one of the largest and most influential financial institutions on the planet. When they move capital at scale, markets pay attention. And history shows that large institutional selling rarely happens in a vacuum. It usually signals something bigger. A shift in risk appetite. A change in liquidity conditions. Or growing concerns beneath the surface that most investors haven't recognized yet. Now here's the part almost nobody talks about. The direct impact isn't limited to the stocks being sold. Because when a major institution dumps billions of dollars worth of equities, it affects sentiment across the entire market. Selling creates more selling. Liquidity gets thinner. Volatility increases. And risk assets everywhere start to feel the pressure. That's why this isn't just an S&P 500 story. The S&P 500 is the first domino. But the effects will spread into AI stocks. International equities. Commodities. Credit markets. And even digital assets. Today, people are positioned for stability. They're positioned for higher prices. They're positioned for the rally to continue. Which means they're vulnerable if liquidity suddenly moves in the opposite direction. THIS IS THE WARNING. Not because one institution is selling. But because markets often underestimate what large-scale institutional selling can trigger. The risk isn't the transaction itself. The risk is how everyone else reacts to it. Markets aren't pricing that possibility today. But eventually, they will. I've spent more than a decade studying macro and market cycles. I've called some of the biggest market tops and bottoms of the past 10+ years. And I'll call the next market crash in 2026 before the crowd sees it coming. Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post my next market call here first.

0xNobler

375,857 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад