Quick demo showing how to profit on Polymarket using a bot. The bot is already built, but it’s not fully automated yet, I’m still placing the orders manually for now, just to prove that the logic works. I’m trading the “Bitcoin Up or Down” 15-minute market, waiting for a... strong move on either the UP or the DOWN side. After a sharp market move, I got 10 UP shares at $0.37 per share. A few seconds later, I bought 10 DOWN shares at $0.485 per share. Total spent: $9.30 Guaranteed payout after 15 minutes: $10 Net profit in 15 minutes: ~7% → ~240,000% APR This strategy must be executed early in the 15-minute cycle, so prices have enough time to rebalance. If you try this too late in the round, you risk ending up stuck with an unwanted UP or DOWN bag. Next (and final) step: fully automating the buy orders.show more

@Polymarket Do not follow this advice you will lose your money. If the market doesn't oscillate back and price doesn't deviate back toward the strike price, you're cooked.

@Polymarket damn nice bot. wen can i try this?

@Polymarket will share once finished

@Polymarket Looking forward to how this bot will plays out when it's automated

@Polymarket almost finished hahaa

Ran this in a simulator I've built. Here is some feedback. Note this sim covers BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP 15min markets. Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - Summary ⏺ Data Overview (15-min markets only) | Metric | Value | |-----------------------------------|----------------------| | Total snapshots | 309,635 | | Unique markets | 862 | | Data period | 3.1 days (Dec 16-20) | | Arb opportunities (<98¢ combined) | 116 snapshots | | Unique markets with arb | 93 markets | | Arb rate | 0.0375% of snapshots | Profit Distribution | Tier | Count | Avg Profit | |--------------|-------|------------| | 10%+ profit | 4 | 18.1% | | 5-10% profit | 17 | 6.4% | | 2-5% profit | 169 | 2.5% | | <2% profit | 2,682 | 0.7% | By Asset (arb count) | Asset | Arb Opportunities | Avg Profit | |-------|-------------------|------------| | XRP | 38 | 4.6% | | SOL | 36 | 3.4% | | ETH | 30 | 3.4% | | BTC | 12 | 5.2% | Theoretical Profitability If you could capture every first arb opportunity in each of the 93 markets with $10 per side ($20 total per arb): - Total profit: $36.65 over 3.1 days - Daily profit: ~$11.82/day - Capital deployed: $20 × 93 = $1,860 (if no reinvestment) - Return: ~2% over 3 days, or ~0.6%/day Key Observations 1. Opportunities are real but rare - 93 markets out of 862 (10.8%) had at least one arb moment 2. Most are brief - Many are single-snapshot opportunities (likely price sync delays) 3. XRP and SOL have more arb - Less liquid markets = more inefficiency 4. BTC has fewer but bigger - Higher profit per opportunity 5. Timing varies - Opportunities occur throughout the market cycle, not just early Concerns 1. Execution risk - Can you actually fill both sides at those prices? 2. Speed requirement - Many opportunities are single snapshots (<30 seconds) 3. Liquidity - The prices shown may not have depth 4. Screenshot strategy differs - The Twitter example showed 37¢ + 48.5¢ = 85.5¢, which is a larger spread than most we're seeing

@Polymarket Clever way to capture market moves

@Polymarket thanks hannax

@Polymarket interestinggggg (me still not using polymarket yet)

@Polymarket you should bro

@Polymarket we are doing something similar with @factsdottrade

@Polymarket whoa impressive!

@Polymarket hahaa glad you liked it

@Polymarket That's a pretty slick logic play, 15 minute cycles are a whole different rhythm

@Polymarket yeah need to move fast

@Polymarket Strategy looks simple and effective

@Polymarket Still working on it

@Polymarket This is interesting fam… 💪🔥

@Polymarket You can just sell the first position outright at 0.515, it automatically shows on other side orderbook at 0.485, and avoid the hassle of conversion.

@Polymarket what happens if one leg never goes below what you need for it to be &lt; 1 ?

@Polymarket Love it bro, any plans to share even if it’s token gated??

@Polymarket gonna ttry thiiia

@Polymarket What if UP kept on dipping so you’re stuck with your shares there?

@Polymarket This strategy is EV-

@Polymarket Polymarket looks wild fr bots make it crazy easy lol

@Polymarket yeah definitely

@Polymarket Will save this video to watch later

@Polymarket sure

@Polymarket Doesn’t work like it sorry… do a simulation

@Polymarket Super cool, is there a way to get involved with the bot?

@Polymarket Arbitrage on Polymarket is clever. Automating those 15-minute cycles could be a massive profit machine.

@Polymarket Well said fam, Polymarket looks so good here

@Polymarket 非常的智能化

@Polymarket damn bro this is clean!

@Polymarket thanks

@Polymarket When you integrate it with real market, you will always get much worse price as price always reacts faster than your orders.

@Polymarket early-cycle snipe game strong

@Polymarket I'm building the same bot, the problem is that if you don't get pairing the first bought you lost 9.30. Then you need like 10 market to recover the lost

@Polymarket Send dm when done

@Polymarket damn nice bot. wen can i try this?

@Polymarket lol

@Polymarket clever arb play

@Polymarket I have run the numbers. You will lose money long term because too many people are doing exactly what you are doing. It used to work, it doesnt anymore.

@Polymarket sounds like a solid plan, keep me posted on how it goes

@Polymarket Bro's gonna be extremely fucking rich soon, bots meta never ends