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Qullamaggie on Relative Strength Difference in Bear Market vs. Correction “Mild pullbacks, mild corrections in an uptrend, say 5, 7, 8 percent. Usually the stocks with the most momentum that have been showing resilience are the ones that tend to do the best. But during deeper corrections and longer...

11,353 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Qullamaggie on the Importance of Leading Stocks “And like people post setups all the time on my stream. People post setups all the time, and this is the hard part — identifying a really good setup versus something that’s random and mediocre. Because that’s gonna also reflect on your results. If you trade the random setups, your results are gonna be random too. You want to find the outlier stocks. You want to see if it has relative strength. The best time to trade this breakout method is after a pullback in the markets. You want to see the stocks that held up the most — the ones that had big moves previously and held up the most. And if you master this setup, if you trade this setup coming out of a small correction, like say a 5-10 or 15% correction in the overall indices, that’s almost like free money for this type of setup. Because if you can identify the stocks that held up the most during the correction — that maybe went down initially but then stopped going down as the correction went on, and actually started building higher lows — that’s telling you something. If you have a stock that’s gone up a lot, and then it stops going down when the market goes down, you know the stock is trying to tell you something. And that’s what leading stocks do. Like every bull market, this is obviously the case. I’m gonna talk more about it later. You obviously need an up-trending or sideways market to trade this method. You have leading stocks — the stocks that go up the most and are the most liquid. And those are really the stocks you want to trade. They’re mostly mid and large caps, but even a small cap can be a leading stock. Those are really the stocks that don’t go down when the market goes down. It’s like you try to push a tennis ball underwater — it just pops back up. And those are the type of stocks you want to find when trading this method.”

Lone

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Qullamaggie on Situational Awareness “I guess it was an okay setup, but it failed in a big way. That was near the peak of the SPAC market. You can see why it failed, because NASDAQ pulled back. Nasdaq had a big run, multi-month run. You wanna buy breakouts when the market comes out of a multi-month sideways consolidation or a multi-month sell-off. Here, good time to buy breakouts. Here, not so much. And that's why it's failed. The setup itself was okay, but once the market is straight up for multiple months, you gotta be careful buying breakouts. The setups themselves were okay. But the market started pulling back mid-February and everything failed. When is the best time to buy breakouts? Chat, come on. Come on, chat. When is the best time to buy breakouts? What do we want to see in the moving averages? After correction? Yeah, but the moving averages. When the 10-day is above the 20-day, yeah, more. Rising 10-day, 20-day. We want to see the 10-day above the 20-day, and both the 10-day and 20-day need to be rising. Or one of them can be sideways, but at least one of them needs to be rising. That's when you have good conditions, generally, for breakouts. In late February, the 10-day had started sloping down, the 20-day was sideways. So that was a warning sign. That you shouldn't buy breakouts. NIO, big move, pulled back to the 10-day, started building a flag and it went straight up. Why did it go straight up? Well, because the market had just come out of a multi-month correction. And that was the start of a multi-month move. And NIO had shown strength all the way. That's a good time to buy breakouts, when the market comes out of a multi-month sideways or multi-month correction. Not when the market has already run for two, three months straight up, and it's starting to lose momentum. Not a good time to buy breakouts.”

Lone

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Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

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David Friedberg Explains the Hidden Collapse Beneath Record Stock Prices 🔥🪙 “Instead of trading it in US dollars, what if you just look at the US stock market, the total value, in ounces of gold?” “The stock market's up in dollar-denominated terms, but if you look at the stock market relative to gold, it's actually down.” “In a democracy, like we have for the past 250 years, without adequate constitutional constraints, it has always been the case that over time government spending goes up.” “And this is because in a democracy, people ask for their government to do more every year, and as they ask for their government to do more every year, the government agents who are elected say, ‘Okay, here you go,’ and they spend more.” “And eventually, when the borrowing capacity gets unlocked, which is what happened in the United States when we went off the gold standard, you borrow like crazy, you print money to fund those borrowing costs, but eventually the bill comes due.” “And in the United States, the bill is coming due.” “But I just want to tie it back to Minnesota, Donald Trump, and socialism.” “I think it's important for us to just highlight that if you own assets like we do, the four of us, we own stocks, we own real estate, we own other assets.” “As the dollar devalues and everything inflates in value, our asset prices go up and we get wealthier, and wealthier, and wealthier.” “The majority of Americans do not own assets. They are net asset negative.” “As a result, they live off of income and they do not benefit from the de-dollarization like asset holders do.” “And I fundamentally believe that much of the civil unrest and ultimately the divide in this country is driven by the fact that de-dollarization, because of excess government spending, ultimately leads a majority of people in this country to feeling oppressed and left behind because they're seeing a few people in the country accelerate their net worth, like all of us here, and there's no way for them to catch up because they don't actually own assets.”

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189,007 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce