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Radhakrishan Damani's Secret Desi Investing Formula That Outperforms Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger & Peter Lynch . Learn His Original Concepts for Identifying Undervalued & Overvalued Stocks in Indian Markets . Every Investor Must Watch This 4 Min Video 📌

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12,832 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Peter Lynch sharing a simple strategy to outperform 99% of the investor in this 10 minutes video📈💰 It's a must-watch and worth every second. Save it for later. 📌
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Peter Lynch sharing a simple strategy to outperform 99% of the investor in this 10 minutes video📈💰 It's a must-watch and worth every second. Save it for later. 📌

Chronicles

95,981 次观看 • 1 年前

On this weeks episode of The Money Mindset, I had a chance to sit down with billionaire investor, entrepreneur, philanthopher and life coach Mohnish Pabrai ✨ What started off as a conversation about his investing journey turned out to be a masterclass in behavioural finance, psychology and how to develop the billionaire mindset 🚀 We spoke about :- -lessons from his friendship and association with Warren buffet and charlie munger -how and why he paid 650,000$ for lunch with Warren buffet which turned out to be a bargain -what is your inner scorecard and why does it matter? -adopting the stoic philosophy -the big investment bets he took recently in markets like turkey -what is the meaning of a life well lived ? -his investment framework and how he appraoaches Indian markets Full episode releases on Thursday 27th Feb on The Money Mindset
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On this weeks episode of The Money Mindset, I had a chance to sit down with billionaire investor, entrepreneur, philanthopher and life coach Mohnish Pabrai ✨ What started off as a conversation about his investing journey turned out to be a masterclass in behavioural finance, psychology and how to develop the billionaire mindset 🚀 We spoke about :- -lessons from his friendship and association with Warren buffet and charlie munger -how and why he paid 650,000$ for lunch with Warren buffet which turned out to be a bargain -what is your inner scorecard and why does it matter? -adopting the stoic philosophy -the big investment bets he took recently in markets like turkey -what is the meaning of a life well lived ? -his investment framework and how he appraoaches Indian markets Full episode releases on Thursday 27th Feb on The Money Mindset

Sonia Shenoy

58,289 次观看 • 1 年前

Warren Buffett: "It is a different game that requires a different type of person to enjoy it." At 94 years old, Warren Buffett has a clear preference when it comes to investing, and it's not real estate. When asked about real estate versus stocks, Buffett argues the stock market wins on almost every practical dimension. "There is simply much more opportunity in the United States security market than in real estate." His reasoning comes down to three things: speed, simplicity, and certainty of completion. In stocks, you can execute billions of dollars worth of business anonymously in five minutes, and once the trade is done, it's done. The completion rate is essentially 100% once buyer and seller agree on price. Real estate is the opposite. You're dealing with a single owner or family that may have held a property for a long time, possibly borrowed too much against it, or is facing negative trends. Every transaction becomes an enormous, drawn-out decision. "In real estate, signing the deal is just the start of another phase where people negotiate more and more things." Buffett contrasts this with the stock market: "If someone needs to sell 20,000 shares of Berkshire and the price is right, it is done in five seconds and closes every time." His late partner Charlie Munger took a different view. Munger enjoyed real estate deals and continued doing them even in the last five years of his life. But Buffett says that if Munger had to choose exclusively between the two at age 21, even he would have chosen stocks. For Buffett, the conclusion is simple: "We find it much better when people are ready to pick up the phone and you can do hundreds of millions of dollars of business in a day. I have been spoiled by this efficiency, and I like being spoiled, so we will keep it that way." Real estate can produce great returns, but the friction involved in negotiations, multiple parties, and drawn-out timelines makes it a fundamentally different game. For most investors, the stock market offers far more opportunity with far less complexity.
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Warren Buffett: "It is a different game that requires a different type of person to enjoy it." At 94 years old, Warren Buffett has a clear preference when it comes to investing, and it's not real estate. When asked about real estate versus stocks, Buffett argues the stock market wins on almost every practical dimension. "There is simply much more opportunity in the United States security market than in real estate." His reasoning comes down to three things: speed, simplicity, and certainty of completion. In stocks, you can execute billions of dollars worth of business anonymously in five minutes, and once the trade is done, it's done. The completion rate is essentially 100% once buyer and seller agree on price. Real estate is the opposite. You're dealing with a single owner or family that may have held a property for a long time, possibly borrowed too much against it, or is facing negative trends. Every transaction becomes an enormous, drawn-out decision. "In real estate, signing the deal is just the start of another phase where people negotiate more and more things." Buffett contrasts this with the stock market: "If someone needs to sell 20,000 shares of Berkshire and the price is right, it is done in five seconds and closes every time." His late partner Charlie Munger took a different view. Munger enjoyed real estate deals and continued doing them even in the last five years of his life. But Buffett says that if Munger had to choose exclusively between the two at age 21, even he would have chosen stocks. For Buffett, the conclusion is simple: "We find it much better when people are ready to pick up the phone and you can do hundreds of millions of dollars of business in a day. I have been spoiled by this efficiency, and I like being spoiled, so we will keep it that way." Real estate can produce great returns, but the friction involved in negotiations, multiple parties, and drawn-out timelines makes it a fundamentally different game. For most investors, the stock market offers far more opportunity with far less complexity.

Big Brain Investing

42,809 次观看 • 4 个月前

If you’re an investing beginner, you MUST watch this video. If you’re an advanced investor, watch it as a reminder. Peter Lynch is the most successful Fund Manager of all time. He uses these 45 minutes to cover 95% of all of investing! My Key Takeaways: 1. Personal Edge - Look for the fields in which you have a knowledge benefit. Working in an industry, being a customer, all of that is an advantage. 2. The Key Organ for Investing: The Stomach - Investing is not about brains. It’s about having the stomach. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” - Peter Lynch 3. Categories - Categories and labels are guidelines, not hard rules. Successful investing is about flexibility. 4. P/E Rule of Thumb - Stocks follow Earnings Fairly Priced: P/E equals annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Expensive: P/E extensively higher than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Cheap: P/E extensively lower than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. 5. Balance Sheet Rules of Thumb - Is the BS healthy? a) Cash should be higher than Short-Term Debt b) If Cash - Short-term Debt - Long-Term Debt is only 1/4 of Net worth, the BS is decent c) Total Debt should equal 20% of capitalization or less 6. Focus on Stories - Stock prices move with the stories told about the companies. Have a long-term story for every company you own and check if it plays out. 7. Profit from Chaos - A market decline of at least 10% occurs every two years. Pick up your high-conviction bets at a discount when this happens. 8. Forget about Macroeconomics - Focus on business growth, not GDP growth. “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.” - Peter Lynch
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If you’re an investing beginner, you MUST watch this video. If you’re an advanced investor, watch it as a reminder. Peter Lynch is the most successful Fund Manager of all time. He uses these 45 minutes to cover 95% of all of investing! My Key Takeaways: 1. Personal Edge - Look for the fields in which you have a knowledge benefit. Working in an industry, being a customer, all of that is an advantage. 2. The Key Organ for Investing: The Stomach - Investing is not about brains. It’s about having the stomach. “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” - Peter Lynch 3. Categories - Categories and labels are guidelines, not hard rules. Successful investing is about flexibility. 4. P/E Rule of Thumb - Stocks follow Earnings Fairly Priced: P/E equals annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Expensive: P/E extensively higher than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. Cheap: P/E extensively lower than annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years. 5. Balance Sheet Rules of Thumb - Is the BS healthy? a) Cash should be higher than Short-Term Debt b) If Cash - Short-term Debt - Long-Term Debt is only 1/4 of Net worth, the BS is decent c) Total Debt should equal 20% of capitalization or less 6. Focus on Stories - Stock prices move with the stories told about the companies. Have a long-term story for every company you own and check if it plays out. 7. Profit from Chaos - A market decline of at least 10% occurs every two years. Pick up your high-conviction bets at a discount when this happens. 8. Forget about Macroeconomics - Focus on business growth, not GDP growth. “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.” - Peter Lynch

Daniel Mahncke

493,303 次观看 • 3 年前

Warren Buffett on why having less money can be one of the biggest advantages in investing: When asked about the best period of his investing career, Warren Buffett pointed to his early years — not because he had more resources, but because he had far less capital to manage. "My best period was right after I met Ben Graham in early 1951. From the end of 1950 through the next 10 years, returns averaged about 50% a year... but I was working with a tiny tiny tiny amount of money." Buffett explained that he spent countless hours searching for overlooked opportunities, reviewing thousands of pages of company information by hand. "I went through the pages of the manuals page by page. I probably went through 20,000 pages in the Moody's industrial, transportation, banks and finance manuals. And I did it twice. I actually looked at every business." Because he was investing relatively small amounts, he could buy into tiny, deeply undervalued companies that would have been too insignificant for large investment firms. The result? He'd find one or two businesses he could put $10,000 or $15,000 into that were 'ridiculously cheap. As Buffett's capital grew, however, those opportunities became less meaningful. "As soon as you start getting the money up into the millions, many millions, the curve on expectable results falls off just dramatically." He argues that individual investors with small portfolios and a willingness to do the research can often access opportunities that are unavailable to large institutions. "If you're working with a small sum of money and you're really interested in the business and willing to do the work, there's no question in my mind. You will find some things that promise very large returns compared to what we will be able to deliver with large sums of money." Charlie Munger added that investors with limited capital should embrace areas of the market that large firms often ignore. "A brilliant man who can't get any money from other people and is working with a very small sum probably should work in very obscure stocks searching out unusual mispriced opportunities." Buffett also observed that many talented people on Wall Street choose a different path — not by seeking exceptional investment performance, but by managing other people's money. "Most smart people in Wall Street figure that they can make a lot more money, a lot easier, by getting an override on other people's money... the monetization of hope and greed is a way to make a huge amount of money." To illustrate the point, he recalled a friend with little investing success who was nevertheless planning to launch a large hedge fund. "If you looked at this fellow's schedule D on his 1040 for the last 20 years, you'd think he ought to be mowing lawns. But he may get his 125 million." Buffett concluded by arguing that, on Wall Street, marketing often earns more than investment skill. "The biggest money made in Wall Street in recent years has not been made by great performance, but has been made by great promotion." Source: Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting
4:51

Warren Buffett on why having less money can be one of the biggest advantages in investing: When asked about the best period of his investing career, Warren Buffett pointed to his early years — not because he had more resources, but because he had far less capital to manage. "My best period was right after I met Ben Graham in early 1951. From the end of 1950 through the next 10 years, returns averaged about 50% a year... but I was working with a tiny tiny tiny amount of money." Buffett explained that he spent countless hours searching for overlooked opportunities, reviewing thousands of pages of company information by hand. "I went through the pages of the manuals page by page. I probably went through 20,000 pages in the Moody's industrial, transportation, banks and finance manuals. And I did it twice. I actually looked at every business." Because he was investing relatively small amounts, he could buy into tiny, deeply undervalued companies that would have been too insignificant for large investment firms. The result? He'd find one or two businesses he could put $10,000 or $15,000 into that were 'ridiculously cheap. As Buffett's capital grew, however, those opportunities became less meaningful. "As soon as you start getting the money up into the millions, many millions, the curve on expectable results falls off just dramatically." He argues that individual investors with small portfolios and a willingness to do the research can often access opportunities that are unavailable to large institutions. "If you're working with a small sum of money and you're really interested in the business and willing to do the work, there's no question in my mind. You will find some things that promise very large returns compared to what we will be able to deliver with large sums of money." Charlie Munger added that investors with limited capital should embrace areas of the market that large firms often ignore. "A brilliant man who can't get any money from other people and is working with a very small sum probably should work in very obscure stocks searching out unusual mispriced opportunities." Buffett also observed that many talented people on Wall Street choose a different path — not by seeking exceptional investment performance, but by managing other people's money. "Most smart people in Wall Street figure that they can make a lot more money, a lot easier, by getting an override on other people's money... the monetization of hope and greed is a way to make a huge amount of money." To illustrate the point, he recalled a friend with little investing success who was nevertheless planning to launch a large hedge fund. "If you looked at this fellow's schedule D on his 1040 for the last 20 years, you'd think he ought to be mowing lawns. But he may get his 125 million." Buffett concluded by arguing that, on Wall Street, marketing often earns more than investment skill. "The biggest money made in Wall Street in recent years has not been made by great performance, but has been made by great promotion." Source: Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting

Black Edge

13,003 次观看 • 1 个月前

Every patriotic Indian must watch this 5 min video.. An Ex-Agniveer, Amarnath from Ayodhya was thrown out from the service after he lost his finger in a bomb blast. He said, “Enemy bullets are same for us also, I want to tell PM Modi that you have done wrong with armed forces.” He also said that Residents of Ayodhya call Lord Rama as their ‘Bhaiya’, don’t know our bhaiya Prabhu Ram is now in Ayodhya or not, but our Rahul Bhaiya in Delhi is always available for us. 🔥
5:00

Every patriotic Indian must watch this 5 min video.. An Ex-Agniveer, Amarnath from Ayodhya was thrown out from the service after he lost his finger in a bomb blast. He said, “Enemy bullets are same for us also, I want to tell PM Modi that you have done wrong with armed forces.” He also said that Residents of Ayodhya call Lord Rama as their ‘Bhaiya’, don’t know our bhaiya Prabhu Ram is now in Ayodhya or not, but our Rahul Bhaiya in Delhi is always available for us. 🔥

Shantanu

22,267 次观看 • 1 年前

🚨NEW EP with Becky Quick: “Invest early, do it often, & let it ride, and don't worry about what's happening. To me, our job at CNBC is to educate people about what happens when you have the law of compound interest working for you.” What a joy to catch up with my dear friend Becky Quick on the latest episode of The Master Investor Podcast – anchor of Squawk Box & a true titan of business journalism. We covered US-Iran peace deal; SpaceX IPO; lessons from Buffett; Elon Musk vs Warren Buffett; the beauty of the purity of markets; & her inspirational #CNBCCures. WHAT IS BUFFETT’S GENIUS?: “Patience. He & Charlie Munger have repeatedly said one of the things they're best at doing is nothing. There are a lot of people who feel like they have to act because the markets are going up & up & they have FOMO. Warren’s never had FOMO.” MUSK v BUFFETT: “Charlie Munger & Warren Buffet have both told me individually they might not buy the stock [SpaceX] but they would never bet against Elon Musk because it is a pretty risky proposition to do so.” TRUMP IRAN DEAL: “I don't know that he is nearly as focused on the midterms as most of the other elected officials in the Republican party…I think he's probably more focused on getting things done & I think he sees Iran as a particular issue that he would like to be able to say that he's brought peace there or at least cleared Iran from having the ability to have nuclear weapons. I think he probably takes that more seriously than winning the midterms.” CNBC CURES: “The idea that you're just trying to figure this out & nobody understands what you're going through. And you start to realise that if you can do something to help you should. And that was the genesis of CNBC Cures to figure out how do we connect some of these groups so that they can learn from each other and then use CNBC's platform to make sure we're getting in front of the legislators, the regulators and the investors.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:00 US-Iran peace deal 5:57 Iran over Mid-Terms for Trump 8:09 Buffett - don’t bet against Elon Musk 9:45 Déjà vu of late 1990s? 12:40 CNBC’s role – financial education 16:50 21 Years of Squawk Box 20:07 Purity of the markets 22:16 Lessons from Warren Buffett 26:05 Buffett’s secret – patience 30:07 CNBC Cures 40:20 Loneliness of rare disease 44:48 Investing, career and life advice
48:12

🚨NEW EP with Becky Quick: “Invest early, do it often, & let it ride, and don't worry about what's happening. To me, our job at CNBC is to educate people about what happens when you have the law of compound interest working for you.” What a joy to catch up with my dear friend Becky Quick on the latest episode of The Master Investor Podcast – anchor of Squawk Box & a true titan of business journalism. We covered US-Iran peace deal; SpaceX IPO; lessons from Buffett; Elon Musk vs Warren Buffett; the beauty of the purity of markets; & her inspirational #CNBCCures. WHAT IS BUFFETT’S GENIUS?: “Patience. He & Charlie Munger have repeatedly said one of the things they're best at doing is nothing. There are a lot of people who feel like they have to act because the markets are going up & up & they have FOMO. Warren’s never had FOMO.” MUSK v BUFFETT: “Charlie Munger & Warren Buffet have both told me individually they might not buy the stock [SpaceX] but they would never bet against Elon Musk because it is a pretty risky proposition to do so.” TRUMP IRAN DEAL: “I don't know that he is nearly as focused on the midterms as most of the other elected officials in the Republican party…I think he's probably more focused on getting things done & I think he sees Iran as a particular issue that he would like to be able to say that he's brought peace there or at least cleared Iran from having the ability to have nuclear weapons. I think he probably takes that more seriously than winning the midterms.” CNBC CURES: “The idea that you're just trying to figure this out & nobody understands what you're going through. And you start to realise that if you can do something to help you should. And that was the genesis of CNBC Cures to figure out how do we connect some of these groups so that they can learn from each other and then use CNBC's platform to make sure we're getting in front of the legislators, the regulators and the investors.” Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:00 US-Iran peace deal 5:57 Iran over Mid-Terms for Trump 8:09 Buffett - don’t bet against Elon Musk 9:45 Déjà vu of late 1990s? 12:40 CNBC’s role – financial education 16:50 21 Years of Squawk Box 20:07 Purity of the markets 22:16 Lessons from Warren Buffett 26:05 Buffett’s secret – patience 30:07 CNBC Cures 40:20 Loneliness of rare disease 44:48 Investing, career and life advice

Wilfred Frost

142,673 次观看 • 2 个月前

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on why they won't hire a quant, even though Jim Simons proved it works: A questioner points out that Jim Simons' Medallion Fund returned 39% net of fees for three decades, then asks whether Berkshire would consider hiring a quant lieutenant to work alongside Ted or Todd. Buffett's answer is immediate: "Well, I'll say no to the second part." Then he hands the analysis to Munger, who breaks down exactly where quantitative investing worked and where it didn't. Munger notes that the leading quant fund did fabulously on short-term trading: "They found little algorithms that worked... they had predictive value, and as long as they kept working, they just kept doing it as long as the money kept coming in." But the same approach hit a wall when stretched to a longer horizon: "When they got to using the same system... for long-term stock predictions, the record was not nearly as good." Munger also highlights a constraint most people miss. The edge had a ceiling built into it: "In the short-term stuff, they found that if they tried to do it too much, they destroyed their own advantage, so there was a limit on the amount they could make." His verdict on the people behind it is admiring rather than dismissive: "But they were very, very smart... very smart and very rich." Buffett echoes the respect, calling Jim Simons "very high grade," before explaining why none of this changes Berkshire's approach: "We're not trying to make money trading stocks. I mean, the answer is we don't think we know how to do it. If we knew how to make a lot more money trading stocks, we'd probably be trading stocks too, but we don't know how to do it, and we really don't trust anybody else to do it for us. It's that simple."
1:26

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger on why they won't hire a quant, even though Jim Simons proved it works: A questioner points out that Jim Simons' Medallion Fund returned 39% net of fees for three decades, then asks whether Berkshire would consider hiring a quant lieutenant to work alongside Ted or Todd. Buffett's answer is immediate: "Well, I'll say no to the second part." Then he hands the analysis to Munger, who breaks down exactly where quantitative investing worked and where it didn't. Munger notes that the leading quant fund did fabulously on short-term trading: "They found little algorithms that worked... they had predictive value, and as long as they kept working, they just kept doing it as long as the money kept coming in." But the same approach hit a wall when stretched to a longer horizon: "When they got to using the same system... for long-term stock predictions, the record was not nearly as good." Munger also highlights a constraint most people miss. The edge had a ceiling built into it: "In the short-term stuff, they found that if they tried to do it too much, they destroyed their own advantage, so there was a limit on the amount they could make." His verdict on the people behind it is admiring rather than dismissive: "But they were very, very smart... very smart and very rich." Buffett echoes the respect, calling Jim Simons "very high grade," before explaining why none of this changes Berkshire's approach: "We're not trying to make money trading stocks. I mean, the answer is we don't think we know how to do it. If we knew how to make a lot more money trading stocks, we'd probably be trading stocks too, but we don't know how to do it, and we really don't trust anybody else to do it for us. It's that simple."

Black Edge

35,601 次观看 • 3 个月前

Bill Ackman is openly trying to build the next Berkshire Hathaway and explained the entire playbook on All-In. It starts with a 4 billion dollar company nobody on Wall Street cares about. The company is Howard Hughes. It trades at 60 cents on the dollar. Here is the playbook he is copying. Someone went back and read every filing Warren Buffett made over 60 years. Almost all of Berkshire's value came from one thing nobody talks about. Insurance. Buffett ran an insurance company. You collect premiums today in exchange for paying claims later. That means you get money up front. Float. Most insurers obsess over the liability side. How much they might have to pay out. Buffett did the opposite. He took that float and invested it. Manage both sides well and you build a compounding, tax-efficient machine that runs for decades. So why hasn't everyone copied it? Because the people great at investing go work for hedge funds. Insurance companies can't recruit them. Buffett owned half his company and happened to be the best investor alive. Ackman is now running the same play. Instead of plowing Howard Hughes cash into real estate, he is pouring it into insurance. The goal is a trillion dollar machine compounding over 50 years. Buffett started with a failing textile mill. Ackman is starting with land nobody wanted. The playbook was never hidden. Almost nobody is built to run it. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast
3:17

Bill Ackman is openly trying to build the next Berkshire Hathaway and explained the entire playbook on All-In. It starts with a 4 billion dollar company nobody on Wall Street cares about. The company is Howard Hughes. It trades at 60 cents on the dollar. Here is the playbook he is copying. Someone went back and read every filing Warren Buffett made over 60 years. Almost all of Berkshire's value came from one thing nobody talks about. Insurance. Buffett ran an insurance company. You collect premiums today in exchange for paying claims later. That means you get money up front. Float. Most insurers obsess over the liability side. How much they might have to pay out. Buffett did the opposite. He took that float and invested it. Manage both sides well and you build a compounding, tax-efficient machine that runs for decades. So why hasn't everyone copied it? Because the people great at investing go work for hedge funds. Insurance companies can't recruit them. Buffett owned half his company and happened to be the best investor alive. Ackman is now running the same play. Instead of plowing Howard Hughes cash into real estate, he is pouring it into insurance. The goal is a trillion dollar machine compounding over 50 years. Buffett started with a failing textile mill. Ackman is starting with land nobody wanted. The playbook was never hidden. Almost nobody is built to run it. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

Ihtesham Ali

212,771 次观看 • 2 个月前

Warren Buffett built the biggest cash pile in market history. He spent three years selling stocks and buying almost nothing. Then he stepped aside, and his successor did the EXACT opposite. The crazy part? He just made INSANE history... Buffett had piled up nearly 400 billion dollars in cash. That is more money than most whole countries produce. He kept it in safe government bonds earning about 4 percent. He was quietly waiting for stocks to get cheap again. That crash never came and the market kept setting records. So his giant cash pile just sat there and waited. That cash still earned him over 12 billion dollars yearly. He even sold most of his huge Apple stake along the way. Early this year the company bought back almost no stock. It spent only 234 million dollars, tiny for a giant like this. Then Abel took over and the pace suddenly exploded. Early filings suggest he bought back billions in one quarter. It may be the biggest stock buyback in Berkshire's history. A buyback simply means he judged his own stock as cheap. Now comes the part almost everyone missed. He did not pour that cash into the record-high market. He bought Berkshire's own shares instead. He also spent 8.5 billion dollars buying a homebuilder. Buying his own company was the one bet he trusted. Most people watched stocks hit new highs and piled in. The best investor alive was quietly doing the opposite. Berkshire even trailed the market by about seven points this year. He treated nearly every other stock as too expensive. He would rather hold cash than overpay for anything. Sitting in cash looked boring and even wrong for years. But patient and boring is often how real money is made. The crowd chases the top while the patient wait for value. Retail chased the record highs. The patient waited for the price. That's the whole game.
5:30

Warren Buffett built the biggest cash pile in market history. He spent three years selling stocks and buying almost nothing. Then he stepped aside, and his successor did the EXACT opposite. The crazy part? He just made INSANE history... Buffett had piled up nearly 400 billion dollars in cash. That is more money than most whole countries produce. He kept it in safe government bonds earning about 4 percent. He was quietly waiting for stocks to get cheap again. That crash never came and the market kept setting records. So his giant cash pile just sat there and waited. That cash still earned him over 12 billion dollars yearly. He even sold most of his huge Apple stake along the way. Early this year the company bought back almost no stock. It spent only 234 million dollars, tiny for a giant like this. Then Abel took over and the pace suddenly exploded. Early filings suggest he bought back billions in one quarter. It may be the biggest stock buyback in Berkshire's history. A buyback simply means he judged his own stock as cheap. Now comes the part almost everyone missed. He did not pour that cash into the record-high market. He bought Berkshire's own shares instead. He also spent 8.5 billion dollars buying a homebuilder. Buying his own company was the one bet he trusted. Most people watched stocks hit new highs and piled in. The best investor alive was quietly doing the opposite. Berkshire even trailed the market by about seven points this year. He treated nearly every other stock as too expensive. He would rather hold cash than overpay for anything. Sitting in cash looked boring and even wrong for years. But patient and boring is often how real money is made. The crowd chases the top while the patient wait for value. Retail chased the record highs. The patient waited for the price. That's the whole game.

Logan Weaver

54,241 次观看 • 27 天前

Warren Buffett's legendary speech at the University of Georgia. This speech is a great piece on business and investing. But I specifically enjoy it for Buffett's humor and life lessons. Here are some of my favorite points: 1. Don't work for your Resume - Work for someone you admire. Not to upgrade your resume. Working jobs that you hate first sounds to Buffett like: "Saving up sex for when you're old." Focus on learning on the job! 2. Qualities to focus on in Life - Buffett's Thought Experiment: Look around in your classroom, which classmate would you choose when you could keep 10% of his earnings for the rest of your life? Also, think about the inversion of this scenario: Who would you sell short? The characteristics that you focus on when answering these questions are the ones you should focus on in your own life. 3. The Best Compounders are Stable Companies - "The internet won't change how you chew gum." Buffett's biggest successes come from companies that aren't disruptable. Industries that are subject to disruption are a bad spot to look for long-term investments. 4. Go Short Horses, Not Long Cars - Investing is not about spotting the disruptors. In most cases, it's obvious when a life-changing product comes up. The question is, who profits from that change? It was a matter of time before cars replaced horses. But out of hundreds of car companies, only a handful actually succeeded. The same happened in the airline industry. 5. Managing your Circle of Competence - According to Buffett, the key to successful investing is to manage your circle of competence. It's not how big that circle is. More important is that you know your boundaries and always stay within them. 6. The Birds in the Bush - "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." However, an investor should also ask: 1. How many birds are in the bush? 2. When will they come out? 3. How sure am I? Investing is all about answering these questions. What investing lecture/speech/video can you recommend to me? If you enjoyed this tweet, please Retweet and Like it!
1:17:09

Warren Buffett's legendary speech at the University of Georgia. This speech is a great piece on business and investing. But I specifically enjoy it for Buffett's humor and life lessons. Here are some of my favorite points: 1. Don't work for your Resume - Work for someone you admire. Not to upgrade your resume. Working jobs that you hate first sounds to Buffett like: "Saving up sex for when you're old." Focus on learning on the job! 2. Qualities to focus on in Life - Buffett's Thought Experiment: Look around in your classroom, which classmate would you choose when you could keep 10% of his earnings for the rest of your life? Also, think about the inversion of this scenario: Who would you sell short? The characteristics that you focus on when answering these questions are the ones you should focus on in your own life. 3. The Best Compounders are Stable Companies - "The internet won't change how you chew gum." Buffett's biggest successes come from companies that aren't disruptable. Industries that are subject to disruption are a bad spot to look for long-term investments. 4. Go Short Horses, Not Long Cars - Investing is not about spotting the disruptors. In most cases, it's obvious when a life-changing product comes up. The question is, who profits from that change? It was a matter of time before cars replaced horses. But out of hundreds of car companies, only a handful actually succeeded. The same happened in the airline industry. 5. Managing your Circle of Competence - According to Buffett, the key to successful investing is to manage your circle of competence. It's not how big that circle is. More important is that you know your boundaries and always stay within them. 6. The Birds in the Bush - "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." However, an investor should also ask: 1. How many birds are in the bush? 2. When will they come out? 3. How sure am I? Investing is all about answering these questions. What investing lecture/speech/video can you recommend to me? If you enjoyed this tweet, please Retweet and Like it!

Daniel Mahncke

138,688 次观看 • 3 年前

Warren Buffett on how everyday investors should approach index funds At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, an investor from Cincinnati asked Buffett two questions: Which index fund to pick, and whether the high price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 should change anything. Buffett's answer was simple. "I would just take a very broad index. I would take the S&P 500 as long as I wasn't putting all my money in at one time." His preferred holding period? 20 or 30 years of consistent contributions. But the fund you pick is only half the equation. The other half is cost. "I would be very careful about the costs involved because all they're doing for you is buying that index." He specifically called out Vanguard for its low fees and recommended that anyone investing in funds first read John Bogle's books before putting money in. His reasoning comes down to basic math: "If you have a very high percentage of funds being institutionally managed, and a great many institutions charge a lot of money for doing it and others charge a little, they're going to get very similar gross results but different net results." On timing the market, Buffett was just as direct. Don't try. "I wouldn't toss a chunk in at any one time. I would do it over a period of time because the very nature of index funds is that you are saying, 'I think America's business is going to do well over a long period of time, but I don't know enough to pick the winners and I don't know enough to pick the winning times.'" And on the question of whether a high P/E ratio should make you wait? "I don't think price-earnings ratio determines things. I don't think price-book ratios, price-sales ratios, there's no single metric that will tell you this is a great time to buy stocks or not to buy stocks. It just isn't that easy." That's precisely why he recommends index funds in the first place. "If you are buying an index fund, you are protecting yourself against the fact that you don't know the answers to those questions. But you can do well over time without knowing the answers as long as you consciously recognize that fact." Charlie Munger added a sobering caveat: stocks could become so expensive that index returns disappoint for years. Buffett pointed to Japan, where index returns had been negative for 13 years, as proof it can happen. But for the young investor saving a portion of their income, his advice remained unchanged: "Pick out a very broad index. I would probably use the S&P 500 because as soon as you start getting beyond that and thinking you should be in small caps or large caps at certain times, you're in a game you're not equipped to play."
6:18

Warren Buffett on how everyday investors should approach index funds At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, an investor from Cincinnati asked Buffett two questions: Which index fund to pick, and whether the high price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 should change anything. Buffett's answer was simple. "I would just take a very broad index. I would take the S&P 500 as long as I wasn't putting all my money in at one time." His preferred holding period? 20 or 30 years of consistent contributions. But the fund you pick is only half the equation. The other half is cost. "I would be very careful about the costs involved because all they're doing for you is buying that index." He specifically called out Vanguard for its low fees and recommended that anyone investing in funds first read John Bogle's books before putting money in. His reasoning comes down to basic math: "If you have a very high percentage of funds being institutionally managed, and a great many institutions charge a lot of money for doing it and others charge a little, they're going to get very similar gross results but different net results." On timing the market, Buffett was just as direct. Don't try. "I wouldn't toss a chunk in at any one time. I would do it over a period of time because the very nature of index funds is that you are saying, 'I think America's business is going to do well over a long period of time, but I don't know enough to pick the winners and I don't know enough to pick the winning times.'" And on the question of whether a high P/E ratio should make you wait? "I don't think price-earnings ratio determines things. I don't think price-book ratios, price-sales ratios, there's no single metric that will tell you this is a great time to buy stocks or not to buy stocks. It just isn't that easy." That's precisely why he recommends index funds in the first place. "If you are buying an index fund, you are protecting yourself against the fact that you don't know the answers to those questions. But you can do well over time without knowing the answers as long as you consciously recognize that fact." Charlie Munger added a sobering caveat: stocks could become so expensive that index returns disappoint for years. Buffett pointed to Japan, where index returns had been negative for 13 years, as proof it can happen. But for the young investor saving a portion of their income, his advice remained unchanged: "Pick out a very broad index. I would probably use the S&P 500 because as soon as you start getting beyond that and thinking you should be in small caps or large caps at certain times, you're in a game you're not equipped to play."

Black Edge

11,552 次观看 • 3 个月前

Why is Warren Buffett's writing so popular? He's built a career out of writing annual letters that are read by millions of people every year. Here's how his writing differs from other investors: 1. You can stand out in the business world by writing like an actual human being. 2. Don't just write about ideas. Joke around. So goes Buffett's famous line: "It's only when the tide goes out that you find out who's been swimming naked." 3. Write to a specific person, not a faceless group of masses. Legend has it that Buffett addresses the early drafts of his annual letters to his sister (Dorothy) and replaces her name with 'Shareholders' once he's done with it. 4. You can differentiate yourself simply by writing with a different voice. Buffett tries to come across as a folky, hokey, aw-shucks kind of guy who's nothing like the kind of Suit Guy you'd find in Midtown Manhattan. 5. Read things that other people aren't willing to read. Historically, part of Buffett's edge is that he was obsessively reading 10-K filings before they were as accessible as they are now. 6. What's another example of Buffett doing things that others weren't willing to do? Friends tell me he used to call managers at various companies and get them to disclose their business plans, back when this was legal. 7. Deadlines are your nemesis in the moment, but your friend in retrospect. Buffett has no choice but to produce an annual letter every year, and those annual deadlines have made him a prolific writer. 8. Share your wisdom freely. You don't need to share all of it, but it can help to share some of it. 9. Don't just share ideas. Name them. 10. What's an example of naming your ideas? In business, it's common knowledge that a company's success can compound. For example, it'll take 12 years for a company to reach $1 billion in revenue but only one more to reach $2 billion. Scale leads to more scale. Buffett calls this "The Snowball Effect." 11. You don’t need to write much to have outsized success. Warren Buffett (and Jeff Bezos) have built their reputations by writing one excellent letter to shareholders every year. 12. If you're early in your career and don't know where to begin, start writing. Buffett attracted some of his early investors by publishing his ideas. His mentor, Ben Graham, did the same thing. He wrote two best-selling books on his way to getting rich by investing in Geico early. 13. Writing is a BS detector for your ideas. Buffett once said: "Some of the things I think I think, I find don’t make any sense when I start trying to write them down." 14. Oh, and one more thing: Maybe you should drink more Diet Coke?!? These lessons are only a slice of the talk I've shared below about Warren Buffett's writing style. It centers around a framework called POP Writing, which you'll immediately be able to bring into your own writing. If you'd rather watch the full thing on YouTube, I've shared a link in the reply tweet.
12:27

Why is Warren Buffett's writing so popular? He's built a career out of writing annual letters that are read by millions of people every year. Here's how his writing differs from other investors: 1. You can stand out in the business world by writing like an actual human being. 2. Don't just write about ideas. Joke around. So goes Buffett's famous line: "It's only when the tide goes out that you find out who's been swimming naked." 3. Write to a specific person, not a faceless group of masses. Legend has it that Buffett addresses the early drafts of his annual letters to his sister (Dorothy) and replaces her name with 'Shareholders' once he's done with it. 4. You can differentiate yourself simply by writing with a different voice. Buffett tries to come across as a folky, hokey, aw-shucks kind of guy who's nothing like the kind of Suit Guy you'd find in Midtown Manhattan. 5. Read things that other people aren't willing to read. Historically, part of Buffett's edge is that he was obsessively reading 10-K filings before they were as accessible as they are now. 6. What's another example of Buffett doing things that others weren't willing to do? Friends tell me he used to call managers at various companies and get them to disclose their business plans, back when this was legal. 7. Deadlines are your nemesis in the moment, but your friend in retrospect. Buffett has no choice but to produce an annual letter every year, and those annual deadlines have made him a prolific writer. 8. Share your wisdom freely. You don't need to share all of it, but it can help to share some of it. 9. Don't just share ideas. Name them. 10. What's an example of naming your ideas? In business, it's common knowledge that a company's success can compound. For example, it'll take 12 years for a company to reach $1 billion in revenue but only one more to reach $2 billion. Scale leads to more scale. Buffett calls this "The Snowball Effect." 11. You don’t need to write much to have outsized success. Warren Buffett (and Jeff Bezos) have built their reputations by writing one excellent letter to shareholders every year. 12. If you're early in your career and don't know where to begin, start writing. Buffett attracted some of his early investors by publishing his ideas. His mentor, Ben Graham, did the same thing. He wrote two best-selling books on his way to getting rich by investing in Geico early. 13. Writing is a BS detector for your ideas. Buffett once said: "Some of the things I think I think, I find don’t make any sense when I start trying to write them down." 14. Oh, and one more thing: Maybe you should drink more Diet Coke?!? These lessons are only a slice of the talk I've shared below about Warren Buffett's writing style. It centers around a framework called POP Writing, which you'll immediately be able to bring into your own writing. If you'd rather watch the full thing on YouTube, I've shared a link in the reply tweet.

David Perell

27,214 次观看 • 2 年前

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger were asked in 2008 why Berkshire Hathaway wasn't investing in India A 12-year-old named Sabrina Chug stood up at the Berkshire annual meeting and made the case: India represents 17% of the world's population. Its economy had been growing at 7-8% per year. At that pace, she argued, India's total GDP would surpass the United States by 2043. Buffett's answer was revealing. He didn't dismiss India. In fact, he shared that Berkshire's Iscar business was already performing well there, and that he had agreed to visit the country the following March to explore expanding it further. "We do not rule out India, believe me, in looking at either direct investments or marketable securities." But then he named the structural constraint that had kept Berkshire on the sidelines: India's insurance regulations severely limited what a foreign-owned company could own and operate. "I really hate to take some of our managerial talent and put them to work for something we only own 25% of. I'd rather have them working on something we own 100% of." This is a window into how Buffett thinks about market entry. Fast growth alone is not enough. You need the legal and structural conditions that allow you to deploy capital in the way you actually operate, at full ownership, with your best people running the business. Charlie Munger went further. He traced India's investment constraints not to economics, but to governance: "Its governments tend to have a fair amount of paralysis. Endless due process, endless objection, zoning is hard, planning permissions are hard." He noted that Lee Kuan Yew, the founder of modern Singapore, had argued China would outpace India for exactly this reason. Less bureaucratic friction meant faster compounding of capital and infrastructure. But Buffett pushed back on the idea that current conditions are permanent: "If you looked at China 40 years ago you wouldn't have dreamt of what would happen. Countries do learn from each other and they should. I don't think I would feel that any impediment to growth that existed now are necessarily ones that have to be permanent." That nuance matters to long-term investors. Buffett wasn't writing India off. He was saying the opportunity wasn't yet structured in a way that fit Berkshire's model. And he was leaving the door open for that to change. His final line said everything: "People in India are going to be living a lot better 20 years from now than they are now." Source: 2010 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting
5:26

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger were asked in 2008 why Berkshire Hathaway wasn't investing in India A 12-year-old named Sabrina Chug stood up at the Berkshire annual meeting and made the case: India represents 17% of the world's population. Its economy had been growing at 7-8% per year. At that pace, she argued, India's total GDP would surpass the United States by 2043. Buffett's answer was revealing. He didn't dismiss India. In fact, he shared that Berkshire's Iscar business was already performing well there, and that he had agreed to visit the country the following March to explore expanding it further. "We do not rule out India, believe me, in looking at either direct investments or marketable securities." But then he named the structural constraint that had kept Berkshire on the sidelines: India's insurance regulations severely limited what a foreign-owned company could own and operate. "I really hate to take some of our managerial talent and put them to work for something we only own 25% of. I'd rather have them working on something we own 100% of." This is a window into how Buffett thinks about market entry. Fast growth alone is not enough. You need the legal and structural conditions that allow you to deploy capital in the way you actually operate, at full ownership, with your best people running the business. Charlie Munger went further. He traced India's investment constraints not to economics, but to governance: "Its governments tend to have a fair amount of paralysis. Endless due process, endless objection, zoning is hard, planning permissions are hard." He noted that Lee Kuan Yew, the founder of modern Singapore, had argued China would outpace India for exactly this reason. Less bureaucratic friction meant faster compounding of capital and infrastructure. But Buffett pushed back on the idea that current conditions are permanent: "If you looked at China 40 years ago you wouldn't have dreamt of what would happen. Countries do learn from each other and they should. I don't think I would feel that any impediment to growth that existed now are necessarily ones that have to be permanent." That nuance matters to long-term investors. Buffett wasn't writing India off. He was saying the opportunity wasn't yet structured in a way that fit Berkshire's model. And he was leaving the door open for that to change. His final line said everything: "People in India are going to be living a lot better 20 years from now than they are now." Source: 2010 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting

Black Edge

17,526 次观看 • 1 个月前

Warren Buffett on why having less money is actually one of the biggest edges in investing: Buffett is asked about his best investing periods. His answer reveals something most people miss about scale and returns. "My best period was right after I met Ben Graham in early 1951. From the end of 1950 through the next 10 years, returns averaged about 50% a year... but I was working with a tiny tiny tiny amount of money." He explains his process back then: "I went through the pages of the manuals page by page. I probably went through 20,000 pages in the Moody's industrial, transportation, banks and finance manuals. And I did it twice. I actually looked at every business." The result? He'd find one or two businesses he could put $10,000 or $15,000 into that were "ridiculously cheap." But as his capital grew, the universe of opportunities shrank dramatically: "As soon as you start getting the money up into the millions, many millions, the curve on expectable results falls off just dramatically." His conclusion is striking: "If you're working with a small sum of money and you're really interested in the business and willing to do the work, there's no question in my mind. You will find some things that promise very large returns compared to what we will be able to deliver with large sums of money." Charlie Munger adds his own framing: "A brilliant man who can't get any money from other people and is working with a very small sum probably should work in very obscure stocks searching out unusual mispriced opportunities." But Buffett notes that most smart people on Wall Street don't take this path. They chase a different game entirely: "Most smart people in Wall Street figure that they can make a lot more money, a lot easier, by getting an override on other people's money... the monetization of hope and greed is a way to make a huge amount of money." He shares a recent example. A friend with no real investing track record called him about starting a $125 million hedge fund. "If you looked at this fellow's schedule D on his 1040 for the last 20 years, you'd think he ought to be mowing lawns. But he may get his 125 million." Buffett's final observation cuts deep: "The biggest money made in Wall Street in recent years has not been made by great performance, but has been made by great promotion."
4:51

Warren Buffett on why having less money is actually one of the biggest edges in investing: Buffett is asked about his best investing periods. His answer reveals something most people miss about scale and returns. "My best period was right after I met Ben Graham in early 1951. From the end of 1950 through the next 10 years, returns averaged about 50% a year... but I was working with a tiny tiny tiny amount of money." He explains his process back then: "I went through the pages of the manuals page by page. I probably went through 20,000 pages in the Moody's industrial, transportation, banks and finance manuals. And I did it twice. I actually looked at every business." The result? He'd find one or two businesses he could put $10,000 or $15,000 into that were "ridiculously cheap." But as his capital grew, the universe of opportunities shrank dramatically: "As soon as you start getting the money up into the millions, many millions, the curve on expectable results falls off just dramatically." His conclusion is striking: "If you're working with a small sum of money and you're really interested in the business and willing to do the work, there's no question in my mind. You will find some things that promise very large returns compared to what we will be able to deliver with large sums of money." Charlie Munger adds his own framing: "A brilliant man who can't get any money from other people and is working with a very small sum probably should work in very obscure stocks searching out unusual mispriced opportunities." But Buffett notes that most smart people on Wall Street don't take this path. They chase a different game entirely: "Most smart people in Wall Street figure that they can make a lot more money, a lot easier, by getting an override on other people's money... the monetization of hope and greed is a way to make a huge amount of money." He shares a recent example. A friend with no real investing track record called him about starting a $125 million hedge fund. "If you looked at this fellow's schedule D on his 1040 for the last 20 years, you'd think he ought to be mowing lawns. But he may get his 125 million." Buffett's final observation cuts deep: "The biggest money made in Wall Street in recent years has not been made by great performance, but has been made by great promotion."

Black Edge

13,791 次观看 • 3 个月前

Warren Buffett on why he chose bonds over stocks during the financial crisis: A shareholder asked Buffett why, during the 2009 crisis, he leaned toward debt instruments rather than equity. Specifically, why he invested $300 million in Harley-Davidson at 15% interest instead of buying the stock at $12 (which later traded at $33). Buffett's answer reveals his core investment philosophy: "I don't know whether Harley-Davidson equity is worth 33 or 20 or 45. I just have no view on that. I kind of like a business where your customers tattoo your name on their chest or something, but figuring out the economic value of that, you know, I'm not sure even going on questioning those guys I'd learn much from them." But what he did know was enough: "I do know, or I thought I knew, and I think I'm right, that A: Harley-Davidson was not going out of business, and B: 15% was going to look pretty damned attractive." The lesson is about decision difficulty. Buffett deliberately chose the simpler question: "I knew enough to lend them money. I didn't know enough to buy the equity. And that's frequently the case... I'll go with a simple decision." In other words, he didn't need to predict whether the motorcycle market would shrink or margins would get squeezed. He only needed to answer one question: are they going to go broke or not? Charlie Munger added another dimension to the answer, pointing to their responsibility as fiduciaries: "After all, we are a fiduciary for a lot of people, including people with permanent injuries, etc. And to some extent we are constrained by how aggressively we buy stocks versus something else." Munger also offered a broader insight for investors: "Very often when you're looking at a distressed situation and buy the bonds, you should have bought the stock. So I think you're looking in a promising area." Buffett tied it back to a principle Ben Graham wrote about in 1934: "In the analysis of senior securities, the junior securities usually do better, but you may sleep better with the senior securities." And this is where his philosophy crystallises. Berkshire has $60 billion of insurance liabilities extending out 50 years or more: "We would never have all of our money in stocks. We might have very significant amounts, but we are running this place so that it can stand anything." The payoff for that conservatism came during the crisis itself: "A couple years ago we felt very good about where that philosophy left us. We actually could do things at a time when most people were paralyzed, and we'll keep running it that way."
4:20

Warren Buffett on why he chose bonds over stocks during the financial crisis: A shareholder asked Buffett why, during the 2009 crisis, he leaned toward debt instruments rather than equity. Specifically, why he invested $300 million in Harley-Davidson at 15% interest instead of buying the stock at $12 (which later traded at $33). Buffett's answer reveals his core investment philosophy: "I don't know whether Harley-Davidson equity is worth 33 or 20 or 45. I just have no view on that. I kind of like a business where your customers tattoo your name on their chest or something, but figuring out the economic value of that, you know, I'm not sure even going on questioning those guys I'd learn much from them." But what he did know was enough: "I do know, or I thought I knew, and I think I'm right, that A: Harley-Davidson was not going out of business, and B: 15% was going to look pretty damned attractive." The lesson is about decision difficulty. Buffett deliberately chose the simpler question: "I knew enough to lend them money. I didn't know enough to buy the equity. And that's frequently the case... I'll go with a simple decision." In other words, he didn't need to predict whether the motorcycle market would shrink or margins would get squeezed. He only needed to answer one question: are they going to go broke or not? Charlie Munger added another dimension to the answer, pointing to their responsibility as fiduciaries: "After all, we are a fiduciary for a lot of people, including people with permanent injuries, etc. And to some extent we are constrained by how aggressively we buy stocks versus something else." Munger also offered a broader insight for investors: "Very often when you're looking at a distressed situation and buy the bonds, you should have bought the stock. So I think you're looking in a promising area." Buffett tied it back to a principle Ben Graham wrote about in 1934: "In the analysis of senior securities, the junior securities usually do better, but you may sleep better with the senior securities." And this is where his philosophy crystallises. Berkshire has $60 billion of insurance liabilities extending out 50 years or more: "We would never have all of our money in stocks. We might have very significant amounts, but we are running this place so that it can stand anything." The payoff for that conservatism came during the crisis itself: "A couple years ago we felt very good about where that philosophy left us. We actually could do things at a time when most people were paralyzed, and we'll keep running it that way."

Black Edge

76,530 次观看 • 3 个月前

Warren Buffett: "I don't advocate extreme frugality. I may practice it, but I don't advocate it." Most personal finance advice tells you to cut everything and save as much as possible. Buffett disagrees. At a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, a father named Tim Pham asked Warren and Charlie for advice his children could live by around frugality, debt, and work ethic. Buffett's answer surprised the room. He started with the bedrock principle he and Munger have always stood by: "Charlie and I have always been big fans of living within your income, and if you do that, you'll have a whole lot more income later on." The compounding logic every long-term investor already knows. But then he went further. He pushed back on the idea that more saving is always better: "Who's to say whether it's better to defer a dollar of expenditure on your family, on a trip to Disneyland or something that they've got enormous enjoyment out of, so that when you're 75, you can have a 30-foot boat instead of a 20-foot boat?" This is the investor's version of opportunity cost, applied to life itself. Every dollar you save is a dollar you didn't spend on experiences, relationships, and memories with the people you love. That trade-off is real. And it deserves honest accounting. Buffett's actual line in the sand is narrower than most people assume: "I think it's crazy to be spending 105 percent of your income, and I think that that leads to all kinds of problems." The deeper principle he keeps returning to is the internal scorecard: "You are not a better person or a worse person because you live a different kind of life than your neighbor. You live a life that you know is true to yourself." That's the real investment framework here. A life evaluated on your own terms, not against whoever happens to live next door. On the question of teaching children, Buffett acknowledged that the most powerful lever is the one investors know best: modeling behavior over time. "I think they will, to a considerable extent, follow the example of their parents. If their parents are coveting every possession of their neighbor, or trying to figure out ways to increase their cost of living without necessarily their standard of living, the kids are likely to pick up on it." Lifestyle inflation is quietly one of the most destructive forces in long-term wealth building. Not because spending is bad, but because spending to keep up with others, rather than to build the life you actually want, compounds against you. Charlie added the grounding note that even the best inputs don't guarantee outcomes: "Even if you provide the proper example, it's likely not to work some of the time anyway." That's the risk disclosure no parenting book includes. — Source: Warren Buffett – Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Q&A (2008)
3:45

Warren Buffett: "I don't advocate extreme frugality. I may practice it, but I don't advocate it." Most personal finance advice tells you to cut everything and save as much as possible. Buffett disagrees. At a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, a father named Tim Pham asked Warren and Charlie for advice his children could live by around frugality, debt, and work ethic. Buffett's answer surprised the room. He started with the bedrock principle he and Munger have always stood by: "Charlie and I have always been big fans of living within your income, and if you do that, you'll have a whole lot more income later on." The compounding logic every long-term investor already knows. But then he went further. He pushed back on the idea that more saving is always better: "Who's to say whether it's better to defer a dollar of expenditure on your family, on a trip to Disneyland or something that they've got enormous enjoyment out of, so that when you're 75, you can have a 30-foot boat instead of a 20-foot boat?" This is the investor's version of opportunity cost, applied to life itself. Every dollar you save is a dollar you didn't spend on experiences, relationships, and memories with the people you love. That trade-off is real. And it deserves honest accounting. Buffett's actual line in the sand is narrower than most people assume: "I think it's crazy to be spending 105 percent of your income, and I think that that leads to all kinds of problems." The deeper principle he keeps returning to is the internal scorecard: "You are not a better person or a worse person because you live a different kind of life than your neighbor. You live a life that you know is true to yourself." That's the real investment framework here. A life evaluated on your own terms, not against whoever happens to live next door. On the question of teaching children, Buffett acknowledged that the most powerful lever is the one investors know best: modeling behavior over time. "I think they will, to a considerable extent, follow the example of their parents. If their parents are coveting every possession of their neighbor, or trying to figure out ways to increase their cost of living without necessarily their standard of living, the kids are likely to pick up on it." Lifestyle inflation is quietly one of the most destructive forces in long-term wealth building. Not because spending is bad, but because spending to keep up with others, rather than to build the life you actually want, compounds against you. Charlie added the grounding note that even the best inputs don't guarantee outcomes: "Even if you provide the proper example, it's likely not to work some of the time anyway." That's the risk disclosure no parenting book includes. — Source: Warren Buffett – Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Q&A (2008)

The Financian

20,915 次观看 • 17 天前

Legendary investor Peter Lynch: "The sucker's going up is not a good reason" to buy a stock. Peter Lynch grew Fidelity's Magellan Fund from $20 million to $14 billion between 1977 and 1990. In a recent interview, he shared why most retail investors lose money, and why his "buy what you know" philosophy still works today. His main observation about how people invest: "People that are investing in individual stocks, it's sad. They're careful when they buy a refrigerator or an airplane flight. They're careful with their money, and they'll hear about a stock on the bus and they'll put $5,000 or $10,000 on it. They have no idea what they do." His advice is simple. Look at the company. Look at the balance sheet. Have a real reason the stock should be higher. To illustrate how basic this analysis can be, Peter offers an example: "If you can add five and five and get reasonably close to ten, you should be able to look at a balance sheet and say, 'Here's two depressed companies. They've gone from 50 to 3. One company's got 3 million in cash and no debt. One's got 3 million in debt, no cash. Which one are you going to buy?' I mean, that's not too hard to do." Peter believes his style of investing is still very much alive. The opportunities just look different now: "Who would have guessed TJX, a local company, would have gone up 50-fold, or Stop & Shop would go up 10-fold, or Analog Devices or NVIDIA? I couldn't pronounce NVIDIA." Old leaders fade. Sears rolled over. Kmart rolled over. IBM slowed down. But new companies like Panera and Family Dollar emerged. According to Peter, that's just the nature of markets. You have to keep looking for new companies and actually read the balance sheet. On the constant fear cycle investors get trapped in, Peter offers perspective from 50+ years in the business: "We've had 13 recessions since World War II, and we've had 13 recoveries. Maybe we're going to have one. If this is a recession, it's probably the most predicted one ever." He reminds investors that today's worries are nothing compared to what came before: "It's nothing like imagine 1980 or '81. We had double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, and people were worried the Japanese were going to take over the world. I mean, we were hopeless. There's always something to worry about. In over 50 years of doing this, I think I'd be worried if somebody didn't bring up something to worry about. That's the nature of the business." He doesn't pretend to know what comes next: "I cannot predict the future, but this one, this recession is so expected, so predicted. Maybe it's coming. I don't know."
4:41

Legendary investor Peter Lynch: "The sucker's going up is not a good reason" to buy a stock. Peter Lynch grew Fidelity's Magellan Fund from $20 million to $14 billion between 1977 and 1990. In a recent interview, he shared why most retail investors lose money, and why his "buy what you know" philosophy still works today. His main observation about how people invest: "People that are investing in individual stocks, it's sad. They're careful when they buy a refrigerator or an airplane flight. They're careful with their money, and they'll hear about a stock on the bus and they'll put $5,000 or $10,000 on it. They have no idea what they do." His advice is simple. Look at the company. Look at the balance sheet. Have a real reason the stock should be higher. To illustrate how basic this analysis can be, Peter offers an example: "If you can add five and five and get reasonably close to ten, you should be able to look at a balance sheet and say, 'Here's two depressed companies. They've gone from 50 to 3. One company's got 3 million in cash and no debt. One's got 3 million in debt, no cash. Which one are you going to buy?' I mean, that's not too hard to do." Peter believes his style of investing is still very much alive. The opportunities just look different now: "Who would have guessed TJX, a local company, would have gone up 50-fold, or Stop & Shop would go up 10-fold, or Analog Devices or NVIDIA? I couldn't pronounce NVIDIA." Old leaders fade. Sears rolled over. Kmart rolled over. IBM slowed down. But new companies like Panera and Family Dollar emerged. According to Peter, that's just the nature of markets. You have to keep looking for new companies and actually read the balance sheet. On the constant fear cycle investors get trapped in, Peter offers perspective from 50+ years in the business: "We've had 13 recessions since World War II, and we've had 13 recoveries. Maybe we're going to have one. If this is a recession, it's probably the most predicted one ever." He reminds investors that today's worries are nothing compared to what came before: "It's nothing like imagine 1980 or '81. We had double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, and people were worried the Japanese were going to take over the world. I mean, we were hopeless. There's always something to worry about. In over 50 years of doing this, I think I'd be worried if somebody didn't bring up something to worry about. That's the nature of the business." He doesn't pretend to know what comes next: "I cannot predict the future, but this one, this recession is so expected, so predicted. Maybe it's coming. I don't know."

Black Edge

11,292 次观看 • 3 个月前

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.
3:59:34

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.

Jaynit

103,790 次观看 • 1 个月前

Twenty One Lessons From Financial History For The Way We Live Now Russell Napier shares lessons from financial history and how they apply to his outlook for the world today. (05:34) Spend as much time analyzing supply as you spend analyzing demand. (09:37) There is no relationship between GDP growth and the return from equities. (13:12) Gordon Pepper’s Law - estimate how long the unsustainable can be sustained, then double it and take off a month. (14:46) Charlie Munger: “Never, ever think about anything else when you should be thinking about incentives.” (19:38) Governments like markets only when they deliver the prices they want. (25:01) The ratio of corporate profits to GDP must mean revert in a free society. (28:27) In assessing the appropriateness of monetary policy, assess both the price and quantity of money. (31:54) The most dangerous form of speculation is the search for yield. (34:24) For investors, the real danger from populism depends on the strength of the constitution and the rule of law. (36:02) The countries most likely to default on their debt are those that have defaulted on their debt. (37:45) High equity valuations fall slowly when the surprise is inflation, and quickly when it is deflation. (43:07) Never buy emerging market equities if the exchange rate is overvalued. (43:29) Tourism is the best guide to whether an exchange rate is overvalued or undervalued. (46:19) Always buy equities when the CAPE Ratio is below 10, unless the future holds communism, war or a surrender of monetary independence with an overvalued exchange rate. (47:46) Democracy is more suited to the operation of capital controls than the free movement of capital. (50:38) Governments don’t have to inflate away their debts because they have your savings instead. (51:33) Technology never ultimately defeats inflation. (52:32) Monetary systems fail about every 30 years. (54:25) Money is almost always in disequilibrium. (55:49) Never trust a forecast with a decimal point. (58:17) Extrapolation is the opiate of the people.
1:00:16

Twenty One Lessons From Financial History For The Way We Live Now Russell Napier shares lessons from financial history and how they apply to his outlook for the world today. (05:34) Spend as much time analyzing supply as you spend analyzing demand. (09:37) There is no relationship between GDP growth and the return from equities. (13:12) Gordon Pepper’s Law - estimate how long the unsustainable can be sustained, then double it and take off a month. (14:46) Charlie Munger: “Never, ever think about anything else when you should be thinking about incentives.” (19:38) Governments like markets only when they deliver the prices they want. (25:01) The ratio of corporate profits to GDP must mean revert in a free society. (28:27) In assessing the appropriateness of monetary policy, assess both the price and quantity of money. (31:54) The most dangerous form of speculation is the search for yield. (34:24) For investors, the real danger from populism depends on the strength of the constitution and the rule of law. (36:02) The countries most likely to default on their debt are those that have defaulted on their debt. (37:45) High equity valuations fall slowly when the surprise is inflation, and quickly when it is deflation. (43:07) Never buy emerging market equities if the exchange rate is overvalued. (43:29) Tourism is the best guide to whether an exchange rate is overvalued or undervalued. (46:19) Always buy equities when the CAPE Ratio is below 10, unless the future holds communism, war or a surrender of monetary independence with an overvalued exchange rate. (47:46) Democracy is more suited to the operation of capital controls than the free movement of capital. (50:38) Governments don’t have to inflate away their debts because they have your savings instead. (51:33) Technology never ultimately defeats inflation. (52:32) Monetary systems fail about every 30 years. (54:25) Money is almost always in disequilibrium. (55:49) Never trust a forecast with a decimal point. (58:17) Extrapolation is the opiate of the people.

The Idea Farm

38,950 次观看 • 2 年前