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Rational Dissent Episode 008. One Commodity Cycle or Many? Commodities as an asset class are rarely homogenous. Today, prices are moving together, which either reflects a structural relationship or a set of unrelated drivers arriving at once. Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. --- Chapters 00:00 - Introduction... show more

Jim Bianco

777,162 subscribers

78,375 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

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6 Kommentare

Profilbild von Macro Bombastic

Macro Bombasticvor 6 Tagen

one commodity cycle or many, classic macro question tbh, checking this out

Profilbild von LetsGetToTheTruth

LetsGetToTheTruthvor 6 Tagen

Distinguishing between a structural relationship and unrelated drivers moving together is the exact question that matters right now with commodities all rallying at once. @JasonColelfod dissects these multi-factor market moves with that same rigor, worth following for that kind of deeper analysis

Profilbild von TT

TTvor 6 Tagen

Great framing on commodity cycles—this distinction matters. You and @fotsguy are two stock accounts I always follow

Profilbild von Geoff B

Geoff Bvor 6 Tagen

When commodities unite, it’s like a market family reunion, somewhat chaotic, but always interesting. Here’s to navigating those complexities together!

Profilbild von rugger

ruggervor 6 Tagen

ps - trump admin is NOT rational...so no need to talk about whats rational

Profilbild von AssetMarketCap

AssetMarketCapvor 6 Tagen

Ah, the great commodity conundrum, when everything moves in sync, is it harmony or chaos? Isn’t it fascinating how markets keep us guessing?

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14,610 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

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146,394 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

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Mario Nawfal

2,567,630 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

We don't know what most microbial genes do. Can genomic language models help? there's only one way to find out! this is a 1 hour and 42 minute interview with an MIT professor (the famous Yunha Hwang) chatting about these questions, her work in solving them at Tatta Bio, and more. zoomer captions are back too Links in reply! Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Clips + sponsor roll from the wonderful LatchBio 00:02:07 – Introduction 00:02:23 – Why do microbial genomes matter 00:04:07 – Deep learning acceptance in metagenomics 00:05:25 – The case for genomic “context” over sequence matching 00:06:43 – OMG: the only ML-ready metagenomic dataset 00:09:27 – gLM2: A multimodal genomic language model 00:11:06 – What do you do with the output of genomic language models? 00:17:41 – How will OMG evolve? 00:20:26 – Why train on only microbial genomes, as opposed to all genomes? 00:22:58 – Do we need more sequences or more annotations? 00:23:54 – Is there a conserved microbial genome ‘language’? 00:28:11 – What non-obvious things can this genomic language model tell you? 00:33:08 – Semantic deduplication and evaluation 00:37:33 – How does benchmarking work for these types of models? 00:41:31 – Gaia: A genomic search engine 00:44:18 – Even ‘well-studied’ genomes are mostly unannotated 00:50:51 – Using agents on Gaia 00:54:53 – Will genomic language models reshape the tree of life? 00:59:18 – Current limitations of genomic language models 01:08:54 – Directed evolution as training data 01:12:35 – What is Tatta Bio? 01:19:02 – Building Google for genomic sequences (SeqHub) 01:25:46 – How to create communities around scientific OSS 01:29:06 – What’s the purpose in the centralization of the software? 01:35:37 – How will the way science is done change in 10 years?

We don't know what most microbial genes do. Can genomic language models help? there's only one way to find out! this is a 1 hour and 42 minute interview with an MIT professor (the famous Yunha Hwang) chatting about these questions, her work in solving them at Tatta Bio, and more. zoomer captions are back too Links in reply! Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Clips + sponsor roll from the wonderful LatchBio 00:02:07 – Introduction 00:02:23 – Why do microbial genomes matter 00:04:07 – Deep learning acceptance in metagenomics 00:05:25 – The case for genomic “context” over sequence matching 00:06:43 – OMG: the only ML-ready metagenomic dataset 00:09:27 – gLM2: A multimodal genomic language model 00:11:06 – What do you do with the output of genomic language models? 00:17:41 – How will OMG evolve? 00:20:26 – Why train on only microbial genomes, as opposed to all genomes? 00:22:58 – Do we need more sequences or more annotations? 00:23:54 – Is there a conserved microbial genome ‘language’? 00:28:11 – What non-obvious things can this genomic language model tell you? 00:33:08 – Semantic deduplication and evaluation 00:37:33 – How does benchmarking work for these types of models? 00:41:31 – Gaia: A genomic search engine 00:44:18 – Even ‘well-studied’ genomes are mostly unannotated 00:50:51 – Using agents on Gaia 00:54:53 – Will genomic language models reshape the tree of life? 00:59:18 – Current limitations of genomic language models 01:08:54 – Directed evolution as training data 01:12:35 – What is Tatta Bio? 01:19:02 – Building Google for genomic sequences (SeqHub) 01:25:46 – How to create communities around scientific OSS 01:29:06 – What’s the purpose in the centralization of the software? 01:35:37 – How will the way science is done change in 10 years?

owl

44,279 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

From a Thai prison cell to a fintech empire processing $1.6B in international payments across 40+ banks and 250M+ users. Jonathan Low (Jonathan Low). Forbes 40 Under 40. Author of "Cell to CEO." We covered prison, banking for AI agents, RWA projects, the future of crypto in banking, vibe coding for trading, and the businesses that win the next 5 years. ⏱ Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Teaser 00:00:46 — Who is Jonathan Low 00:01:35 — What Jonathan's life was like before prison 00:02:13 — How and why Jonathan ended up in prison 00:02:57 — Prison conditions: expectations vs reality 00:07:33 — Prison became the greatest blessing 00:09:12 — How the entrepreneurial journey began after prison 00:10:34 — Why social capital matters 00:11:06 — Launched own club and took it to the top in 3 months 00:12:09 — Built an Axie Infinity gaming guild during COVID 00:13:49 — The beginning of the BipTap Group journey 00:17:23 — How Jonathan built his own banking system 00:20:07 — How to get a crypto card 00:22:03 — How much it costs to launch a white-label solution with BipTap 00:22:58 — Banking for AI agents 00:25:57 — How to build an RWA project 00:27:45 — Future of cryptocurrencies in banking 00:32:08 — The business verticals within Empire Group 00:32:48 — What Jonathan invests his money in 00:33:54 — How relationships with regulators are built 00:34:43 — Implementing AI in business 00:36:28 — Vibe coding in trading 00:40:06 — Advice for first-time founders 00:43:36 — From construction to trading: Ruslan Khairullin's journey 00:44:57 — Inner peace: why calmness is essential for founders 00:50:39 — Work-life balance for entrepreneurs 00:53:47 — $1.5 million in 24 hours on TST coin 00:55:11 — The best way to capture a market 00:55:57 — Banking for nations Watch the full conversation and let me know which part you liked the most 👇

From a Thai prison cell to a fintech empire processing $1.6B in international payments across 40+ banks and 250M+ users. Jonathan Low (Jonathan Low). Forbes 40 Under 40. Author of "Cell to CEO." We covered prison, banking for AI agents, RWA projects, the future of crypto in banking, vibe coding for trading, and the businesses that win the next 5 years. ⏱ Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Teaser 00:00:46 — Who is Jonathan Low 00:01:35 — What Jonathan's life was like before prison 00:02:13 — How and why Jonathan ended up in prison 00:02:57 — Prison conditions: expectations vs reality 00:07:33 — Prison became the greatest blessing 00:09:12 — How the entrepreneurial journey began after prison 00:10:34 — Why social capital matters 00:11:06 — Launched own club and took it to the top in 3 months 00:12:09 — Built an Axie Infinity gaming guild during COVID 00:13:49 — The beginning of the BipTap Group journey 00:17:23 — How Jonathan built his own banking system 00:20:07 — How to get a crypto card 00:22:03 — How much it costs to launch a white-label solution with BipTap 00:22:58 — Banking for AI agents 00:25:57 — How to build an RWA project 00:27:45 — Future of cryptocurrencies in banking 00:32:08 — The business verticals within Empire Group 00:32:48 — What Jonathan invests his money in 00:33:54 — How relationships with regulators are built 00:34:43 — Implementing AI in business 00:36:28 — Vibe coding in trading 00:40:06 — Advice for first-time founders 00:43:36 — From construction to trading: Ruslan Khairullin's journey 00:44:57 — Inner peace: why calmness is essential for founders 00:50:39 — Work-life balance for entrepreneurs 00:53:47 — $1.5 million in 24 hours on TST coin 00:55:11 — The best way to capture a market 00:55:57 — Banking for nations Watch the full conversation and let me know which part you liked the most 👇

Ruslan Khairullin

16,872 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

GOLD TELEGRAPH CONVERSATION 15: DAN MYERSON “Gold has outperformed every fiat currency in history.” In this discussion, Dan breaks down why the market is completely misreading supply in the commodities space, how difficult it really is to build mines, and why copper and gold are quietly setting up for something much bigger. Dan recently led Foran Mining through its transformational transaction with Eldorado Gold valued at roughly USD $2.8 billion. Mr. Myerson now serves as Deputy Chair of Eldorado. Thank you for joining me, Dan. TIMESTAMPS: (00:22) — Origins: from Morgan Stanley to Glencore (02:53) — Transition into the physical commodity world (05:22) — Understanding risk through global supply chains (07:57) — The decision to build a mining company (09:40) — The Foran–Eldorado transaction: strategy and rationale (15:24) — Stepping into the Deputy Chair role (17:05) — Copper demand vs supply: what the market is missing (20:44) — Why new supply is harder than ever to build (22:05) — The outlook for a tightening copper market (23:20) — McIlvenna Bay within the broader platform (27:39) — Why Saskatchewan: jurisdictional advantages (31:08) — Jurisdiction as a mispriced risk in mining (33:09) — What it really takes to build a mine (35:42) — Key milestones: production and near-term catalysts (37:20) — Gold vs copper: stability and growth (38:46) — Discovering gold (41:26) — Why gold continues to matter (43:50) — The copper-gold platform: long-term vision (46:14) — Free cash flow and capital allocation (48:28) — What investors should be focused on right now

GOLD TELEGRAPH CONVERSATION 15: DAN MYERSON “Gold has outperformed every fiat currency in history.” In this discussion, Dan breaks down why the market is completely misreading supply in the commodities space, how difficult it really is to build mines, and why copper and gold are quietly setting up for something much bigger. Dan recently led Foran Mining through its transformational transaction with Eldorado Gold valued at roughly USD $2.8 billion. Mr. Myerson now serves as Deputy Chair of Eldorado. Thank you for joining me, Dan. TIMESTAMPS: (00:22) — Origins: from Morgan Stanley to Glencore (02:53) — Transition into the physical commodity world (05:22) — Understanding risk through global supply chains (07:57) — The decision to build a mining company (09:40) — The Foran–Eldorado transaction: strategy and rationale (15:24) — Stepping into the Deputy Chair role (17:05) — Copper demand vs supply: what the market is missing (20:44) — Why new supply is harder than ever to build (22:05) — The outlook for a tightening copper market (23:20) — McIlvenna Bay within the broader platform (27:39) — Why Saskatchewan: jurisdictional advantages (31:08) — Jurisdiction as a mispriced risk in mining (33:09) — What it really takes to build a mine (35:42) — Key milestones: production and near-term catalysts (37:20) — Gold vs copper: stability and growth (38:46) — Discovering gold (41:26) — Why gold continues to matter (43:50) — The copper-gold platform: long-term vision (46:14) — Free cash flow and capital allocation (48:28) — What investors should be focused on right now

Gold Telegraph ⚡

598,574 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

WALL STREET'S FATAL MISCALCULATION: WHY OIL PRICES REFUSE TO PRICE IN REALITY Legendary commodities expert Jeff Currie just laid out the uncomfortable truth. Every analyst he speaks with calls the current disruptions unprecedented across supply chains. Yet oil and other commodity prices remain strangely calm, as if none of it matters. The market's dangerous disconnect comes down to flawed assumptions and short-term thinking that could soon prove catastrophic. THE HISTORICAL BLIND SPOT ➡️ Most traders active today have never witnessed a disruption of this magnitude. ➡️ Today’s market participants and traders have never experienced anything like this before and are therefore in the dark. ➡️ You must go back to the 1970s and 80s to grasp the true potential impact. THE DEFICIT NOT SHORTAGE ILLUSION ➡️ Right now we face a deficit where demand exceeds supply and inventories are being drawn down fast. ➡️ Nothing has actually run out yet, so everything still feels fine on the surface. ➡️ Currie compares it perfectly to the Jaws scene where the mayor declares the beaches open while the shark still lurks in the water. THE VOLUMETRIC REALITY CHECK ➡️ Macro analysts focus solely on oil's tiny share of global GDP and its notional dollar value. ➡️ They claim price spikes simply do not matter from that narrow perspective. ➡️ But commodities experts measure in actual volumes: millions of barrels per day or metric tons. THE POWERFUL ANALOGY ➡️ Spend $100 million on a luxury diamond necklace for one rich buyer and the system barely notices. ➡️ Hand that same $100 million to low-income families buying basic goods like corn and the volumetric stress on supply chains becomes enormous. ➡️ Who spends the money and how determines the real economic impact, not the headline price tag. THE COMMODITY VERSUS MACRO DIVIDE ➡️ Commodity specialists warned early in COVID that a big problem was building. ➡️ Macro and finance voices dismissed it completely at the time. ➡️ Then inflation exploded over 10 percent year-over-year, proving the volumetric warnings right once again. THE BOTTOM LINE Markets are discounting this crisis because of recency bias, surface-level notional metrics, and a total failure to respect volumetric shocks that actually move the real economy. The calm you see today is simply the quiet before inventories run dry and reality hits hard. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal #OilShock #MarketBlindSpot #JeffCurrie #CommodityCrisis #VolumetricImpact #EnergyDeficit #SupplyChainReality

WALL STREET'S FATAL MISCALCULATION: WHY OIL PRICES REFUSE TO PRICE IN REALITY Legendary commodities expert Jeff Currie just laid out the uncomfortable truth. Every analyst he speaks with calls the current disruptions unprecedented across supply chains. Yet oil and other commodity prices remain strangely calm, as if none of it matters. The market's dangerous disconnect comes down to flawed assumptions and short-term thinking that could soon prove catastrophic. THE HISTORICAL BLIND SPOT ➡️ Most traders active today have never witnessed a disruption of this magnitude. ➡️ Today’s market participants and traders have never experienced anything like this before and are therefore in the dark. ➡️ You must go back to the 1970s and 80s to grasp the true potential impact. THE DEFICIT NOT SHORTAGE ILLUSION ➡️ Right now we face a deficit where demand exceeds supply and inventories are being drawn down fast. ➡️ Nothing has actually run out yet, so everything still feels fine on the surface. ➡️ Currie compares it perfectly to the Jaws scene where the mayor declares the beaches open while the shark still lurks in the water. THE VOLUMETRIC REALITY CHECK ➡️ Macro analysts focus solely on oil's tiny share of global GDP and its notional dollar value. ➡️ They claim price spikes simply do not matter from that narrow perspective. ➡️ But commodities experts measure in actual volumes: millions of barrels per day or metric tons. THE POWERFUL ANALOGY ➡️ Spend $100 million on a luxury diamond necklace for one rich buyer and the system barely notices. ➡️ Hand that same $100 million to low-income families buying basic goods like corn and the volumetric stress on supply chains becomes enormous. ➡️ Who spends the money and how determines the real economic impact, not the headline price tag. THE COMMODITY VERSUS MACRO DIVIDE ➡️ Commodity specialists warned early in COVID that a big problem was building. ➡️ Macro and finance voices dismissed it completely at the time. ➡️ Then inflation exploded over 10 percent year-over-year, proving the volumetric warnings right once again. THE BOTTOM LINE Markets are discounting this crisis because of recency bias, surface-level notional metrics, and a total failure to respect volumetric shocks that actually move the real economy. The calm you see today is simply the quiet before inventories run dry and reality hits hard. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal #OilShock #MarketBlindSpot #JeffCurrie #CommodityCrisis #VolumetricImpact #EnergyDeficit #SupplyChainReality

Mark

145,264 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

LIVE NOW - Productive Money: The Most Bullish Case for Ethereum ($250K) Ethereum may be one of the most underappreciated assets. Michael McGuiness and Vivek Raman of Etherealize lay out the case for ETH as “productive money”: A monetary asset with the store-of-value properties of gold and Bitcoin, but with the ability to compound through network activity. Enjoy! -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:45 $250K ETH? 6:04 How to Price ETH 8:15 ETH’s Monetary Premium 10:25 What Differentiates ETH 13:54 The Path to $250K ETH 16:35 Menger’s Monetary Attributes 20:28 Scarcity 24:58 Fungibility 26:43 Divisibility 27:45 Portability 28:28 Durability 34:30 Verifiability 35:27 Censorship Resistance 37:00 ETH is Productive Money 41:39 How is ETH Productive? 46:40 Ethereum’s Tollbooth 51:28 Counterparty Risk 53:48 Productive Money vs Dead Capital 58:03 Pitching Productive Money to Wall Street 1:00:08 Why is ETH Underappreciated? 1:04:19 Wall Street ETH Investors 1:11:28 Other L1s 1:14:06 Why Not Just Buy the S&P? 1:15:00 Ethereum Technical Risks 1:17:20 How Does ETH Get to $250K? 1:23:18 Closing & Disclaimers

LIVE NOW - Productive Money: The Most Bullish Case for Ethereum ($250K) Ethereum may be one of the most underappreciated assets. Michael McGuiness and Vivek Raman of Etherealize lay out the case for ETH as “productive money”: A monetary asset with the store-of-value properties of gold and Bitcoin, but with the ability to compound through network activity. Enjoy! -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:45 $250K ETH? 6:04 How to Price ETH 8:15 ETH’s Monetary Premium 10:25 What Differentiates ETH 13:54 The Path to $250K ETH 16:35 Menger’s Monetary Attributes 20:28 Scarcity 24:58 Fungibility 26:43 Divisibility 27:45 Portability 28:28 Durability 34:30 Verifiability 35:27 Censorship Resistance 37:00 ETH is Productive Money 41:39 How is ETH Productive? 46:40 Ethereum’s Tollbooth 51:28 Counterparty Risk 53:48 Productive Money vs Dead Capital 58:03 Pitching Productive Money to Wall Street 1:00:08 Why is ETH Underappreciated? 1:04:19 Wall Street ETH Investors 1:11:28 Other L1s 1:14:06 Why Not Just Buy the S&P? 1:15:00 Ethereum Technical Risks 1:17:20 How Does ETH Get to $250K? 1:23:18 Closing & Disclaimers

Bankless

257,127 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten