Загрузка видео...

Не удалось загрузить видео

На главную

Really awesome clip from today’s TBPN interview with Brad Gerstner Brad is “in favor of Jensen returning 70-75% of NV’s FCF to shareholders” (assuming beginning next year) Quick math Friday! - $NVDA is going to do ~$400B in rev CY26 (~$220B in FCF) - They announced a $1 per...

Midnight_Captl's profile picture

Nick Dorsey

22,411 subscribers

70,669 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

LIVE

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

Комментарии: 0

Нет доступных комментариев

Здесь появятся комментарии из оригинального поста

Похожие видео

I think I figured out how SpaceX / Elon Musk are going to pay for the ~8GW of DC capacity SA has forecasted them to deploy next year… as Brad Gerstner mentioned in this clip, $NVDA shareholders do not want NVIDIA backstopping $100’s of billions of dollars worth of compute- it will terrify the market AND, it seems highly unlikely that the Hypers will pay directly for that much compute either since it will balloon their spending next year + at the economics needed here, it would all be going to Frontier labs (hurting the diversification strategy they all are trying to pursue) So… what I think is likely to happen: Brad Gerstner laid out that in the past, the financial structure of compute infra was you get 25% payback per year, you recoup the infra cost by end of year 4, then year 5 profit & year 6 is the kicker to bump IRR up nicely That’s now changed as the demand has become so intense at the Frontier labs that the payback period on infra has compressed maybe into <1yr basically, this $300-$400B in CapEx is going to show up in 3-6 month term lease agreements between SpaceX & Anthropic / OpenAI with enough margin to pay off the compute portion entirely (or vast majority) over the lifespan of the agreement money will trade hands basically up front from ANT/OAI to SpaceX then to NVIDIA. NVIDIA will be paid in full for the GPUs up front and they’ll commit to supporting Elon / SpaceX to stand up the compute in the timeframe specified (SpaceX will ultimately be on the hook for timelines) The kicker would be if NVIDIA captures any durable rent here for facilitating this… a perpetual dividend or something like that
3:36

I think I figured out how SpaceX / Elon Musk are going to pay for the ~8GW of DC capacity SA has forecasted them to deploy next year… as Brad Gerstner mentioned in this clip, $NVDA shareholders do not want NVIDIA backstopping $100’s of billions of dollars worth of compute- it will terrify the market AND, it seems highly unlikely that the Hypers will pay directly for that much compute either since it will balloon their spending next year + at the economics needed here, it would all be going to Frontier labs (hurting the diversification strategy they all are trying to pursue) So… what I think is likely to happen: Brad Gerstner laid out that in the past, the financial structure of compute infra was you get 25% payback per year, you recoup the infra cost by end of year 4, then year 5 profit & year 6 is the kicker to bump IRR up nicely That’s now changed as the demand has become so intense at the Frontier labs that the payback period on infra has compressed maybe into <1yr basically, this $300-$400B in CapEx is going to show up in 3-6 month term lease agreements between SpaceX & Anthropic / OpenAI with enough margin to pay off the compute portion entirely (or vast majority) over the lifespan of the agreement money will trade hands basically up front from ANT/OAI to SpaceX then to NVIDIA. NVIDIA will be paid in full for the GPUs up front and they’ll commit to supporting Elon / SpaceX to stand up the compute in the timeframe specified (SpaceX will ultimately be on the hook for timelines) The kicker would be if NVIDIA captures any durable rent here for facilitating this… a perpetual dividend or something like that

Nick Dorsey

113,333 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

“They don’t have a cup, they’re in a worst spot now then they were 3 years ago, and the fact is that like I don’t know if this is going to be able to switch for next year.” Whit on the state of the Edmonton Oilers.
1:58

“They don’t have a cup, they’re in a worst spot now then they were 3 years ago, and the fact is that like I don’t know if this is going to be able to switch for next year.” Whit on the state of the Edmonton Oilers.

Spittin' Chiclets

327,872 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Every December, patients rush to get care before deductibles reset in January. This year feels different. I am meeting patients who are newly diagnosed with breast cancer right before the holidays while also worrying about whether they will be able to afford their care next year. What is becoming harder is navigating an insurance system that adds fear and uncertainty during an already overwhelming time. There are a lot of us out here who simply want to keep taking care of patients. We are going to figure this out. This next year will be a year of ingenuity because our patients deserve it.
1:33

Every December, patients rush to get care before deductibles reset in January. This year feels different. I am meeting patients who are newly diagnosed with breast cancer right before the holidays while also worrying about whether they will be able to afford their care next year. What is becoming harder is navigating an insurance system that adds fear and uncertainty during an already overwhelming time. There are a lot of us out here who simply want to keep taking care of patients. We are going to figure this out. This next year will be a year of ingenuity because our patients deserve it.

Elisabeth Potter MD

210,381 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Gene Munster Gene Munster on Nvidia: "I expect that next year, calendar 27, will probably grow at 90%. That means growth rate in calendar 27 will be the same as it is in calendar 26...we are probably in the 3rd inning of this buildout. I think we are very early." 90% from CY26 is close to $800 billion in revenue. Via Bloomberg TV $NVDA $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $META
0:39

Gene Munster Gene Munster on Nvidia: "I expect that next year, calendar 27, will probably grow at 90%. That means growth rate in calendar 27 will be the same as it is in calendar 26...we are probably in the 3rd inning of this buildout. I think we are very early." 90% from CY26 is close to $800 billion in revenue. Via Bloomberg TV $NVDA $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $META

P Equity Research 📰

16,639 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Comer: The soybean farmers aren't to blame in this. They planted that crop assuming that those foreign markets were going to be there. China is the biggest importer of American soybeans. They import anywhere from 25 to 35% of the American soybean crop every year. They haven't bought a soybean this year. So I think we need to do something to help the soybean farmers. And I appreciate President Trump…
0:58

Comer: The soybean farmers aren't to blame in this. They planted that crop assuming that those foreign markets were going to be there. China is the biggest importer of American soybeans. They import anywhere from 25 to 35% of the American soybean crop every year. They haven't bought a soybean this year. So I think we need to do something to help the soybean farmers. And I appreciate President Trump…

Acyn

273,035 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

Jensen Huang thinks Dario Amodei's prediction of $1T in AI revenue by 2030 is too conservative. "I believe Dario and Anthropic are going to do way better than that. Way better than that. And the reason for that is the one part that he hasn't considered: I believe every single enterprise software company will also be a value-added reseller of Anthropic's tokens. And they’re going to get this logarithmic expansion. Their go-to-market is going to expand tremendously this year." --- From The All-In Podcast YT channel (link in comment)
0:30

Jensen Huang thinks Dario Amodei's prediction of $1T in AI revenue by 2030 is too conservative. "I believe Dario and Anthropic are going to do way better than that. Way better than that. And the reason for that is the one part that he hasn't considered: I believe every single enterprise software company will also be a value-added reseller of Anthropic's tokens. And they’re going to get this logarithmic expansion. Their go-to-market is going to expand tremendously this year." --- From The All-In Podcast YT channel (link in comment)

Rohan Paul

137,326 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Orlando Bravo: "The SaaSpocalypse is over... AI is an enormous, enormous tailwind for software companies... I was here last year at Super Return, and I think one of the LLM leaders made a comment that by this year, 50% of all white-collar jobs are going to be gone. And somebody in private equity made a comment that 50% of the people in this conference wouldn't have a job by next year. And look at the conference. You even had security outside. There's more people here than ever before... Our companies, 60% of the code that they write is machine-generated. But our number of developers, we have 20,000 of them, they're going up because now they can be a lot more productive."
13:20

Orlando Bravo: "The SaaSpocalypse is over... AI is an enormous, enormous tailwind for software companies... I was here last year at Super Return, and I think one of the LLM leaders made a comment that by this year, 50% of all white-collar jobs are going to be gone. And somebody in private equity made a comment that 50% of the people in this conference wouldn't have a job by next year. And look at the conference. You even had security outside. There's more people here than ever before... Our companies, 60% of the code that they write is machine-generated. But our number of developers, we have 20,000 of them, they're going up because now they can be a lot more productive."

Marcelo P. Lima

208,759 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

This is HUGE ‼️ Woman who works with Section 8 is going over upcoming major changes. Starting with October 1, 2025 “there is a 2 year max time limit on this program for everyone that's able to work now” No more spending a lifetime on Section 8!! “There are major changes coming to Section 8 housing starting with October 1, 2025 that will affect millions of Americans — Instead of HUD running that voucher program national wide, they will send those funds to the state in the form of block grants which means that every state will decide how to spend those funds. But it's a smaller amount of funds so that means that fewer people will be able to get the assistance. One of the most controversial parts about this program is there is a 2 year max time limit on this program for everyone that's able to work now. There is a major contract to right now which the average family stays on this program for about six years even if they are able to work. A lot of the supporters of this build are pointing out that a lot of people are taking advantage of this program and sucking the resources that could be used for someone that actually needs them.”
1:09

This is HUGE ‼️ Woman who works with Section 8 is going over upcoming major changes. Starting with October 1, 2025 “there is a 2 year max time limit on this program for everyone that's able to work now” No more spending a lifetime on Section 8!! “There are major changes coming to Section 8 housing starting with October 1, 2025 that will affect millions of Americans — Instead of HUD running that voucher program national wide, they will send those funds to the state in the form of block grants which means that every state will decide how to spend those funds. But it's a smaller amount of funds so that means that fewer people will be able to get the assistance. One of the most controversial parts about this program is there is a 2 year max time limit on this program for everyone that's able to work now. There is a major contract to right now which the average family stays on this program for about six years even if they are able to work. A lot of the supporters of this build are pointing out that a lot of people are taking advantage of this program and sucking the resources that could be used for someone that actually needs them.”

Wall Street Apes

998,472 просмотров • 1 год назад

Jensen Huang says Dario Amodei's prediction of $1T in AI revenue by 2030 is too conservative. "I believe Dario and Anthropic are going to do way better than that. Way better than that. And the reason for that is the one part that he hasn't considered: I believe every single enterprise software company will also be a value-added reseller of Anthropic's tokens. And they’re going to get this logarithmic expansion. Their go-to-market is going to expand tremendously this year." --- From The All-In Podcast YT channel (link in comment)
0:37

Jensen Huang says Dario Amodei's prediction of $1T in AI revenue by 2030 is too conservative. "I believe Dario and Anthropic are going to do way better than that. Way better than that. And the reason for that is the one part that he hasn't considered: I believe every single enterprise software company will also be a value-added reseller of Anthropic's tokens. And they’re going to get this logarithmic expansion. Their go-to-market is going to expand tremendously this year." --- From The All-In Podcast YT channel (link in comment)

Rohan Paul

98,822 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

AWS CEO, Matt Garman, on CapEx and demand: "The potential business for us is just massive. We see this as a huge opportunity for us to really invest and help customers take advantage of of the AI opportunity, so we will keep investing. As Andy kind of called out last week, we have really great insight into what the demand is going to be from customers. So when we invest, and we will keep investing in CapEx next year as well, we have great insight into when that revenue is going to land. Much of our capacity is already spoken through the end of 27 and even through much of 28, so as we're investing, we're getting five year commitments from customers...I expect us to keep investing as we see opportunities and and some of that we'll see how the the market continues to grow, but right now we're excited about our investments and and we'll continue to invest." $AMZN Via Bloomberg
1:33

AWS CEO, Matt Garman, on CapEx and demand: "The potential business for us is just massive. We see this as a huge opportunity for us to really invest and help customers take advantage of of the AI opportunity, so we will keep investing. As Andy kind of called out last week, we have really great insight into what the demand is going to be from customers. So when we invest, and we will keep investing in CapEx next year as well, we have great insight into when that revenue is going to land. Much of our capacity is already spoken through the end of 27 and even through much of 28, so as we're investing, we're getting five year commitments from customers...I expect us to keep investing as we see opportunities and and some of that we'll see how the the market continues to grow, but right now we're excited about our investments and and we'll continue to invest." $AMZN Via Bloomberg

P Equity Research 📰

51,365 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Chamath says the 30 year at 6% will signal the start of a death spiral “The only solution is that Congress needs to come together and realize that they must now fix this problem. Because if you see 30 year yields at 6%, it is the beginning of a death spiral.” “It's not going to be immediate, so don't freak out, but it is the beginning of some extreme pain, and that pain will last years.” “The only thing that solves it now is getting the budget under control, which is a congressional act, it must happen. Whether it's this year or the next year, it just has to happen.”
0:34

Chamath says the 30 year at 6% will signal the start of a death spiral “The only solution is that Congress needs to come together and realize that they must now fix this problem. Because if you see 30 year yields at 6%, it is the beginning of a death spiral.” “It's not going to be immediate, so don't freak out, but it is the beginning of some extreme pain, and that pain will last years.” “The only thing that solves it now is getting the budget under control, which is a congressional act, it must happen. Whether it's this year or the next year, it just has to happen.”

dnap

191,262 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Zipline CEO Keller Cliffton predicts instant delivery will 10X from 5 billion to 50 billion deliveries a year in the US: "We announced this new strategic partnership with Uber to get to a million deliveries a day. Important to realize that's still a very small percentage of the total instant deliveries happening in the US today." "Dara and I both are confident that delivering in a way that's 10 times faster and less expensive is ultimately gonna lead to a big expansion of this overall market." "If you were to just look at the customer ordering behavior that Zipline is observing right now across the cities where we operate, if you were to extend that to the rest of the US, there would be 10 times as many instant deliveries." "So we expect to go from about 5 billion instant deliveries a year to about 50 billion instant deliveries a year in the US alone." Zipline
1:13

Zipline CEO Keller Cliffton predicts instant delivery will 10X from 5 billion to 50 billion deliveries a year in the US: "We announced this new strategic partnership with Uber to get to a million deliveries a day. Important to realize that's still a very small percentage of the total instant deliveries happening in the US today." "Dara and I both are confident that delivering in a way that's 10 times faster and less expensive is ultimately gonna lead to a big expansion of this overall market." "If you were to just look at the customer ordering behavior that Zipline is observing right now across the cities where we operate, if you were to extend that to the rest of the US, there would be 10 times as many instant deliveries." "So we expect to go from about 5 billion instant deliveries a year to about 50 billion instant deliveries a year in the US alone." Zipline

MTS

15,033 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Jensen Huang just made a statement that every investor in AI infrastructure needs to hear (Save this). He said that the AI buildout is accelerating, the second half of this year is going to be much larger than the first half, and next year is going to be very, very large. Micron is the best positioned to win from this because every Nvidia GPU requires High Bandwidth Memory stacked directly on the chip to feed it data fast enough to keep up. There is no AI compute without memory, and right now there is simply not enough memory to go around. Micron's entire HBM supply for 2026 is already completely sold out under multi-year agreements before the year even started. Micron's own management has acknowledged they can only satisfy 50 to 65 percent of demand from some of their most important customers. That is not a problem that gets fixed quickly, because new fabs take years to build. Micron's Idaho expansion does not come online until mid-2026, a second Idaho facility is not expected until 2028, and a new New York fab is looking at 2030. The demand Jensen just described is arriving right now, and the supply to meet it is years away. The financial results already reflect this dynamic. Micron's Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $23.86 billion, nearly triple what it was a year earlier beating consensus by roughly $3.8 billion. The HBM market alone is expected to grow from $35 billion today to $100 billion by 2028, and Micron has been consistently ahead of that forecast. Jensen just told the world the second half of this year and all of next year are going to be larger than anything that came before. Micron is the company that supplies the memory those GPUs need to run, and it cannot build supply fast enough to keep up with demand. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full deep dive on Micron, the HBM supply thesis and our AI trade thesis! Link below!
1:28

Jensen Huang just made a statement that every investor in AI infrastructure needs to hear (Save this). He said that the AI buildout is accelerating, the second half of this year is going to be much larger than the first half, and next year is going to be very, very large. Micron is the best positioned to win from this because every Nvidia GPU requires High Bandwidth Memory stacked directly on the chip to feed it data fast enough to keep up. There is no AI compute without memory, and right now there is simply not enough memory to go around. Micron's entire HBM supply for 2026 is already completely sold out under multi-year agreements before the year even started. Micron's own management has acknowledged they can only satisfy 50 to 65 percent of demand from some of their most important customers. That is not a problem that gets fixed quickly, because new fabs take years to build. Micron's Idaho expansion does not come online until mid-2026, a second Idaho facility is not expected until 2028, and a new New York fab is looking at 2030. The demand Jensen just described is arriving right now, and the supply to meet it is years away. The financial results already reflect this dynamic. Micron's Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $23.86 billion, nearly triple what it was a year earlier beating consensus by roughly $3.8 billion. The HBM market alone is expected to grow from $35 billion today to $100 billion by 2028, and Micron has been consistently ahead of that forecast. Jensen just told the world the second half of this year and all of next year are going to be larger than anything that came before. Micron is the company that supplies the memory those GPUs need to run, and it cannot build supply fast enough to keep up with demand. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full deep dive on Micron, the HBM supply thesis and our AI trade thesis! Link below!

Milk Road AI

77,554 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

David Sacks says he's heard from Anthropic employees who thought they could 10x ARR in one year to $600 billion from when they were at $60 billion, now currently sitting at $80 billion and not slowing down. "I have heard from other people at the company -- I heard that when they were at about $60 billion of ARR, that they thought they could get to $600 billion in one year." "Meaning they thought they were on that 10x ramp from the middle of this year." "Now they're at over $80 [billion] and it doesn't seem to be slowing down." "So the big question is how fast can they grow next year -- does it go all the way from $100 or $120 [billion] to a trillion dollars?" "Look, if they merely got to $400 to $500 billion, that would make them the biggest software company." Baker: "If they get to $200 billion, that's an amazing outcome."
0:36

David Sacks says he's heard from Anthropic employees who thought they could 10x ARR in one year to $600 billion from when they were at $60 billion, now currently sitting at $80 billion and not slowing down. "I have heard from other people at the company -- I heard that when they were at about $60 billion of ARR, that they thought they could get to $600 billion in one year." "Meaning they thought they were on that 10x ramp from the middle of this year." "Now they're at over $80 [billion] and it doesn't seem to be slowing down." "So the big question is how fast can they grow next year -- does it go all the way from $100 or $120 [billion] to a trillion dollars?" "Look, if they merely got to $400 to $500 billion, that would make them the biggest software company." Baker: "If they get to $200 billion, that's an amazing outcome."

Fireside Alpha

389,147 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Alex Hormozi breaks down how more money actually affects your life. "Going from anything to about six figures a year is a material change. Going from 10,000 a month to 20,000 a month is a significant change. Going from there to about 40 or 50 is another change. Almost all of those are affected mostly up to that 1% earning level, which is about $500,000 a year." "Most people know how to spend money effectively up to $100,000 a year in terms of how to make their life better, but they don't know how to spend it above that. For me, things that make my life better are things that buy me time back. All the annoyances in my life, if I can pay to make those go away, those are things that net enhance."
4:54

Alex Hormozi breaks down how more money actually affects your life. "Going from anything to about six figures a year is a material change. Going from 10,000 a month to 20,000 a month is a significant change. Going from there to about 40 or 50 is another change. Almost all of those are affected mostly up to that 1% earning level, which is about $500,000 a year." "Most people know how to spend money effectively up to $100,000 a year in terms of how to make their life better, but they don't know how to spend it above that. For me, things that make my life better are things that buy me time back. All the annoyances in my life, if I can pay to make those go away, those are things that net enhance."

Acquisition.com

83,007 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Brad Gerstner: Anthropic could *ADD* $200B of Revenue in 2027 - “We’ve never seen anything like this in the history of the world.” Brad Gerstner: “Let me be provocative here. If (Anthropic) ends the year with over $100 billion (in revenue), I think they're on a revenue trajectory that could 3-5x again next year. We've never seen anything like this.” @jason: “You're saying $100B to $300B, or $100B to $400B.” Brad: “Our minds were blown if a company could go from $100M to $300M. Now we're talking from $100B to $300B. $200B of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in the history of Silicon Valley.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “In the history of the world.” Brad: “Yeah, in the history of the world. The fact that we're even talking anywhere close to this tells us something different is going on here. I think the thing that's different is that intelligence is the largest TAM we've ever seen in the history of the world. These guys are penetrating it.”
1:09

Brad Gerstner: Anthropic could *ADD* $200B of Revenue in 2027 - “We’ve never seen anything like this in the history of the world.” Brad Gerstner: “Let me be provocative here. If (Anthropic) ends the year with over $100 billion (in revenue), I think they're on a revenue trajectory that could 3-5x again next year. We've never seen anything like this.” @jason: “You're saying $100B to $300B, or $100B to $400B.” Brad: “Our minds were blown if a company could go from $100M to $300M. Now we're talking from $100B to $300B. $200B of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in the history of Silicon Valley.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “In the history of the world.” Brad: “Yeah, in the history of the world. The fact that we're even talking anywhere close to this tells us something different is going on here. I think the thing that's different is that intelligence is the largest TAM we've ever seen in the history of the world. These guys are penetrating it.”

The All-In Podcast

218,896 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад