正在加载视频...

视频加载失败

加载此视频时出现问题。这可能是由于临时网络问题，或视频可能不可用。

Recently, Garry Tan revealed some pretty incredible data on the returns for investors at YC demo day. If you invested in 3+ startups every demo day over a two-year period (2018-20), the returns you would've seen: Top 10%: 16x Top 25%: 8x Median: 5x Bottom 25%: 3.3x Compare this... show more

Dave Yen

1,430 subscribers

224,169 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

财经科学技术教育

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

9 条评论

Dave Yen 的头像

Dave Yen1 年前

What's the optimal number of startups to invest in at YC demo day? Is it 3? Or is it the Yuri Milner / SV Angel playbook when they offered every YC startup $150k?

Dave Yen 的头像

Dave Yen1 年前

Over the weekend, I built an app to help model this out for Orange Collective. We call it The Unicorn Ratio. The code is open sourced. Try it out: Repo:

Dave Yen 的头像

Dave Yen1 年前

One takeaway: this challenges the conventional VC wisdom of making a few, highly concentrated bets as the only winning strategy. Instead, the data suggests a broader, more systematic approach to YC investing could also be a viable strategy (and possibly beating most VC funds).

Dave Yen 的头像

Dave Yen1 年前

The Unicorn Ratio is based on two mathematical frameworks: 1) Kelly Criterion for optimizing portfolio construction and capital allocation 2) Binomial Distribution for modeling how the probability of picking a unicorn changes based on portfolio size More here on how it works:

Dave Yen 的头像

Dave Yen1 年前

I learned of the Kelly model last week on a call that YC organized for some of its demo day investors. Super grateful to YC for the openness and collaboration, and for giving me an excuse to build and open-source something :) Hopefully others find it useful too.

Dave Yen 的头像

Dave Yen1 年前

Also, an excuse to share one of my favorite movie clips of all time:

Tim Wagner 的头像

Tim Wagner1 年前

Assuming this data is for more recent vintages of startups, the caveat is IRR paper returns vs capital returns. It seems pretty clear many vintages are stuck in valuation traps and likely will die or have down exits (often with the earliest investors getting little to nothing as they are at the bottom of the payout stack)… YC companies are still a better bet than average and I’ve invested in multiple ones myself pre/post YC, but the size of returns here for the low end seems overly optimistic?

Dave Yen 的头像

Dave Yen1 年前

@garrytan It’s 2018-20 vintages so avoids ZIRP craziness from Covid (which would’ve skewed the numbers even higher), but agree would be curious to see a wider sample size

Robot James 🤖🏖 的头像

Robot James 🤖🏖1 年前

@garrytan No fucking way this is true

相关视频

Archie Vaughan had it on a string. In just his second first-class match, in a top of the table clash against Surrey, he bowled 25 overs on day two to finish with figures of 25-6-45-3. Here's all of his wickets and every time he beat the bat.

Archie Vaughan had it on a string. In just his second first-class match, in a top of the table clash against Surrey, he bowled 25 overs on day two to finish with figures of 25-6-45-3. Here's all of his wickets and every time he beat the bat.

Rothesay County Championship

246,456 次观看 • 1 年前

Yesterday we pranked the Y Combinator community with this AI-guided demo day meditation, made with Claude 3 and Kite. It's been the top post on the YC forum for the past 24 hours. If you or a founder you know is struggling with OpenAInxiety, give it a listen. 🧘

Yesterday we pranked the Y Combinator community with this AI-guided demo day meditation, made with Claude 3 and Kite. It's been the top post on the YC forum for the past 24 hours. If you or a founder you know is struggling with OpenAInxiety, give it a listen. 🧘

Derek Feehrer

67,390 次观看 • 2 年前

So far this season Texas doesn’t look like a playoff team. In fact, if you strip away the Longhorn name, they wouldn’t be ranked in the top 25 at all based on the first three weeks of performances.

So far this season Texas doesn’t look like a playoff team. In fact, if you strip away the Longhorn name, they wouldn’t be ranked in the top 25 at all based on the first three weeks of performances.

Clay Travis

70,903 次观看 • 10 个月前

First lady Melania Trump showcased a talking humanoid robot during day two of the White House tech summit on Wednesday. “Figure 3, thank you for joining me at day two of Fostering the Future Together. It’s fair to state you are my first American-made humanoid guest in the White House,” the first lady said at the top of her remarks.

First lady Melania Trump showcased a talking humanoid robot during day two of the White House tech summit on Wednesday. “Figure 3, thank you for joining me at day two of Fostering the Future Together. It’s fair to state you are my first American-made humanoid guest in the White House,” the first lady said at the top of her remarks.

CBS News

50,992 次观看 • 4 个月前

I Invested in Apar Industries in 2018 For 6 years nothing happened, zero returns But In the 7th year, it went 10x within a year within a year and a half. People get very upset with 20-30 % Drawdown Which is to create long-term wealth, to make big money, you simply have to endure that. It sounds great in theory to say you'll just sell at the top & buy back at the bottom. that is just theoretical. - Vikas Khemani 🔥

I Invested in Apar Industries in 2018 For 6 years nothing happened, zero returns But In the 7th year, it went 10x within a year within a year and a half. People get very upset with 20-30 % Drawdown Which is to create long-term wealth, to make big money, you simply have to endure that. It sounds great in theory to say you'll just sell at the top & buy back at the bottom. that is just theoretical. - Vikas Khemani 🔥

Satpal Singh

108,108 次观看 • 17 天前

"The bottom 40% of hedge funds lose money every year." Tom Costello (Tom Coste) ex-Tudor PM, ex-Caxton, ex-Moore Capital — explains: "Hedge fund returns are Pareto distributed. Like a chart of wealth — Elon at the top, a bunch of other billionaires, then it gets flat pretty quickly." "In the hedge fund industry, that distribution falls right around the 40% mark." "60% profitable. The bottom 40% lose money every year." "25% of the bottom 25% will go out of business and be replaced by another 25% pretty much every year." "There's nothing we can do to help them. They're asking the wrong questions." "AI's not going to help them. Machine learning's not going to. They misunderstand the markets in a fundamental way. They can't be saved."

"The bottom 40% of hedge funds lose money every year." Tom Costello (Tom Coste) ex-Tudor PM, ex-Caxton, ex-Moore Capital — explains: "Hedge fund returns are Pareto distributed. Like a chart of wealth — Elon at the top, a bunch of other billionaires, then it gets flat pretty quickly." "In the hedge fund industry, that distribution falls right around the 40% mark." "60% profitable. The bottom 40% lose money every year." "25% of the bottom 25% will go out of business and be replaced by another 25% pretty much every year." "There's nothing we can do to help them. They're asking the wrong questions." "AI's not going to help them. Machine learning's not going to. They misunderstand the markets in a fundamental way. They can't be saved."

Ethan Kho

43,551 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 WHO IS STILL BUYING SPACEX HERE? You skipped $SPCX at $135 on IPO. Now you’re buying right before unlocks in August. Don't become their exit liquidity. DUMP IS INEVITABL → TODAY: 5% → AUG 11: 25% → AUG 21: 32% → SEP 10: 39% → SEP 25: 46% → OCT 10: 53% → OCT 25: 60% → NOV 9: 60% → DEC 9: 58–60% → JUN 13 2027: 100% THIS LOOKS DISASTROUS… Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

🚨 WHO IS STILL BUYING SPACEX HERE? You skipped $SPCX at $135 on IPO. Now you’re buying right before unlocks in August. Don't become their exit liquidity. DUMP IS INEVITABL → TODAY: 5% → AUG 11: 25% → AUG 21: 32% → SEP 10: 39% → SEP 25: 46% → OCT 10: 53% → OCT 25: 60% → NOV 9: 60% → DEC 9: 58–60% → JUN 13 2027: 100% THIS LOOKS DISASTROUS… Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

152,083 次观看 • 1 个月前

DO NOT FALL FOR IT Today SpaceX goes public at $1.75 trillion In the last 20 years the overwhelming majority of hyped IPO's were a DISASTER in first year SpaceX is 10x hyped and 20x a big IPO's valuation Meta: −30% in the first year Uber: −25% in the first year Rivian: −60% in the first year Coinbase: −55% in the 1st year (since day 1) It is not designed for retail to win You buy at the top, early investors are up 100x to 1000x Bankers will win, investors will win, early employees will win AT YOUR EXPENSE SpaceX is a great company, and you'll easily buy it at a discount in the next 365 days Just be patient

DO NOT FALL FOR IT Today SpaceX goes public at $1.75 trillion In the last 20 years the overwhelming majority of hyped IPO's were a DISASTER in first year SpaceX is 10x hyped and 20x a big IPO's valuation Meta: −30% in the first year Uber: −25% in the first year Rivian: −60% in the first year Coinbase: −55% in the 1st year (since day 1) It is not designed for retail to win You buy at the top, early investors are up 100x to 1000x Bankers will win, investors will win, early employees will win AT YOUR EXPENSE SpaceX is a great company, and you'll easily buy it at a discount in the next 365 days Just be patient

Xremlin

703,293 次观看 • 1 个月前

Svitolina after beating Coco Gauff at Australian Open “2nd top 10 win in 48 hours. And I don’t know if you know this. But you are back in the top 10. Would you say that’s a pretty good day in the office?” Elina: “Not bad, not bad 😂. I’m very pleased with the tournament so far. And of course always been my dream to come back after maternity leave. It was my dream to come back in top 10. It’s always been my goal. Unfortunately didn’t happen last year. I stopped after September. When we were training in the off season I told my coach ‘I want to come back in top 10 still.’ This was my goal for this year” 🥹

Svitolina after beating Coco Gauff at Australian Open “2nd top 10 win in 48 hours. And I don’t know if you know this. But you are back in the top 10. Would you say that’s a pretty good day in the office?” Elina: “Not bad, not bad 😂. I’m very pleased with the tournament so far. And of course always been my dream to come back after maternity leave. It was my dream to come back in top 10. It’s always been my goal. Unfortunately didn’t happen last year. I stopped after September. When we were training in the off season I told my coach ‘I want to come back in top 10 still.’ This was my goal for this year” 🥹

The Tennis Letter

240,240 次观看 • 6 个月前

Everyone is behind on AI. Even if you’re in the field, every day, building, it’s just so easy to lose something the big picture. Each year we gather a group of top thinkers and builders - researchers, founders, executives, engineers, and investors to do a 360 and try to catch each other up and fall down a few Rabbit Holes along the way. Join us for the AI Rabbit Hole 2026: the AI Bubble Tea Party. The lineup for this year is already insane: founders of top AI startups, researchers from top labs, execs from key infrastructure players, the most active and successful VCs. Here’s a video from our last one:

Everyone is behind on AI. Even if you’re in the field, every day, building, it’s just so easy to lose something the big picture. Each year we gather a group of top thinkers and builders - researchers, founders, executives, engineers, and investors to do a 360 and try to catch each other up and fall down a few Rabbit Holes along the way. Join us for the AI Rabbit Hole 2026: the AI Bubble Tea Party. The lineup for this year is already insane: founders of top AI startups, researchers from top labs, execs from key infrastructure players, the most active and successful VCs. Here’s a video from our last one:

Nick Davidov

46,701 次观看 • 3 个月前

We’re seeing a structural increase in economic dynamism. Economic data: • US non-employer new business applications are up 24% YoY in the first quarter of 2026. • The number of solopreneurs earning over $100,000 per year has increased a third since 2022. • New business registrations are up 40% in Finland, 75% in France, 40% in the Netherlands. Stripe data: • Stripe Atlas incorporations in the first quarter of 2026 were almost double the same period in 2025. • As of the first three months of the year, our Atlas ‘2026 class’ is tracking (in aggregate) to 5x the revenue of the ‘25 class. • Five years ago, 11.6% of companies on Stripe earned most of their revenue outside their home country. That number has since doubled to 22.9%. • The top 100 AI startups on Stripe sell into a median of 55 markets within their first year. The median earns most of its revenue outside its home country.

We’re seeing a structural increase in economic dynamism. Economic data: • US non-employer new business applications are up 24% YoY in the first quarter of 2026. • The number of solopreneurs earning over $100,000 per year has increased a third since 2022. • New business registrations are up 40% in Finland, 75% in France, 40% in the Netherlands. Stripe data: • Stripe Atlas incorporations in the first quarter of 2026 were almost double the same period in 2025. • As of the first three months of the year, our Atlas ‘2026 class’ is tracking (in aggregate) to 5x the revenue of the ‘25 class. • Five years ago, 11.6% of companies on Stripe earned most of their revenue outside their home country. That number has since doubled to 22.9%. • The top 100 AI startups on Stripe sell into a median of 55 markets within their first year. The median earns most of its revenue outside its home country.

Stripe

27,016 次观看 • 3 个月前

VenCap CIO David Clark says top 1% venture exits are 10x-ing: "We always thought that the largest companies were going to continue to be an order of magnitude larger than we'd seen in prior cycles. And if anything, that's accelerating." "Between 2020 and 2024, top 1% exits started at $10 billion. We updated those numbers in February this year, and a top 1% exit for '25 and the first two months of '26 was then $20 billion." "We just updated them yesterday. And if you look at just the exits that have closed, it's now at $32 billion." "And then if you think about OpenAI and Anthropic coming in, potentially we could be north of $100 billion by September... so we've 10x'd over the space of 24 months what a top 1% exit looks like." David Clark with David George

VenCap CIO David Clark says top 1% venture exits are 10x-ing: "We always thought that the largest companies were going to continue to be an order of magnitude larger than we'd seen in prior cycles. And if anything, that's accelerating." "Between 2020 and 2024, top 1% exits started at $10 billion. We updated those numbers in February this year, and a top 1% exit for '25 and the first two months of '26 was then $20 billion." "We just updated them yesterday. And if you look at just the exits that have closed, it's now at $32 billion." "And then if you think about OpenAI and Anthropic coming in, potentially we could be north of $100 billion by September... so we've 10x'd over the space of 24 months what a top 1% exit looks like." David Clark with David George

a16z

24,581 次观看 • 2 个月前

#WATCH | Mumbai, Maharashtra | On 30 years of Nifty Index, NSE CEO Ashish Kumar Chauhan says, "...In the last 30 years, since Nifty was launched, it has given 25 times returns. If you take the dividends which the companies give, it would be close to around Rs 28,000-30,000... So, if you stay in the market for the long run, don't buy and sell every day or don't indulge in speculation, then you will be able to get great rewards for an economy which is growing at 7%...If you indulge in day to day trading then probably you will lose money and that is what we want to convey to the investors."

#WATCH | Mumbai, Maharashtra | On 30 years of Nifty Index, NSE CEO Ashish Kumar Chauhan says, "...In the last 30 years, since Nifty was launched, it has given 25 times returns. If you take the dividends which the companies give, it would be close to around Rs 28,000-30,000... So, if you stay in the market for the long run, don't buy and sell every day or don't indulge in speculation, then you will be able to get great rewards for an economy which is growing at 7%...If you indulge in day to day trading then probably you will lose money and that is what we want to convey to the investors."

ANI

18,078 次观看 • 4 个月前

Tight lower back and tight hips are by far the most common pain points for people over 25 y/o. Try some new stretches today, all you have to do is 20 minutes a day for 3 days per week! Share this to somebody who needs this! #90daysofcultivation

Tight lower back and tight hips are by far the most common pain points for people over 25 y/o. Try some new stretches today, all you have to do is 20 minutes a day for 3 days per week! Share this to somebody who needs this! #90daysofcultivation

Garage Strength

68,275 次观看 • 6 个月前

I asked anamitra why every VC is starting an accelerator: "As more traditional venture funds become stage agnostic, they don't want to lose sight of the formation stage companies. If you lose that, then you become one of 20 VC's trying to invest in any one round. In the past, they've had seed programs for this. And Seed programs historically have been promoted by younger people at those funds, because they're closer to the metal. And seed funds have gone through cycles. They grow, and then they collapse when founders realize Seed deals at these stage agnostic fund don't convert. So they got disintermediated, and the best founders all go to the angels and the seed funds. And then they grow again, and then they collapse again. And every time, all the young people leave the big funds. And that has happened over cycles for a long time. The Series A funds have been trying to penetrate Seed for a long time. And even if you didn't have a good Seed program, you had YC, and Techstars, and all the other accelerators, which would give you great deal flow. And you could go to the demo days and pick up the good ones. And the cool thing, back in the day, was you didn't actually have to wait for the demo day. You could access the companies before demo day, and make the deals beforehand. Even if you wait until demo day, it's wasn't that bad. You could still get decent ownership at $15m or $10m post-money valuations. And then, YC made two changes to their program. One of the big changes that they made sure companies wait until demo day. And the second was introducing the $375k uncapped MFM SAFE. Which incentivized founders to raise their next round at as high a price as possible. So now, founders were incentivized to raise at demo day, and at as high a price as possible. What used to be $10-15m valuation, are now $20m, $25m, and even up to $40m. And so, many funds were who were reliant on deals from YC saw their entry prices suddenly shoot up. And the question for them became, what do we do? If your average entry point was $10 million on a YC deal, it suddenly went up to $40m. You basically cut your returns by 75%. So if your strategy was doing all these YC deals, and getting a 4x return on your fund, everything was good. Suddenly with the new entry prices, you're getting 1x on your fund. And that's not good. For founders, YC gives you a halo, some brand value. They do a ton of programming and help you learn about building a company. Every founder wants to be part of that. No question about it. Look at the roster of companies that they've invested in. At the same time, there are some founders who may want a better option. Who may believe that their company is worth more than $1.8 million. And they should have an option. So I think, investors saw that their entry prices at demo day were going up. And founders are entering these accelerators at $1.8m post. And investors thought, there has to be a price in the middle that we can offer and give founders another option. And that's why they've all started accelerators. And as a result, what's happening is founders now have more choice. So the question now becomes, what do the best founders decide to do? Now that they have more options, what are they going to pick? And so, it makes a lot of sense to me to see these other funds try their own programs. And if they are committed, and focused, and they're able to source and market well, they're going to do really well. As they do really well, that's going to create a positive virtual cycle for future founders to decide which one should they pick. And they'll all have better options. So it's just going to get more competitive. And I would argue, this might have all been started because of the change in the YC deal. If the deal hadn't changed, would we have seen so much downstream impact?"

The Peel

28,637 次观看 • 1 年前

Here's a highlight from #PhantomBladeZero at #BilibiliWorld! Thank you to all the players who participated and experienced the game. Please forgive us, as the current demo is not yet available for large-scale testing. This combat-centric demo was designed to showcase the core mechanics, as seen in the trailer, and to get feedback on the gameplay. Our goal here is to build and test the game. Afterward, we will repeat the entire process to provide the best experience for players in the final published game. Stay tuned for further updates on the demo and game! This year, you can get hands-on with the game at the following events: Gamescom in Cologne, August 21–25 Tokyo Game Show, Sep. 26–29 We look forward to seeing you there!

Here's a highlight from #PhantomBladeZero at #BilibiliWorld! Thank you to all the players who participated and experienced the game. Please forgive us, as the current demo is not yet available for large-scale testing. This combat-centric demo was designed to showcase the core mechanics, as seen in the trailer, and to get feedback on the gameplay. Our goal here is to build and test the game. Afterward, we will repeat the entire process to provide the best experience for players in the final published game. Stay tuned for further updates on the demo and game! This year, you can get hands-on with the game at the following events: Gamescom in Cologne, August 21–25 Tokyo Game Show, Sep. 26–29 We look forward to seeing you there!

Phantom Blade Zero

30,032 次观看 • 2 年前

🚨 BTC PERFECTLY FOLLOWS MARKET CYCLE PATTERN The data is consistent across every cycle: > 2013 top $1.1k → 2015 bottom: -87% / 365 days > 2017 top $19k → 2018 bottom: -85% / 365 days > 2021 top $69k → 2022 bottom: -79% / 365 days > 2025 top $126k → 2026 bottom: IN PROGRESS However, most people doesn't understand that bear markets are getting shallower while staying the same length The reason is straightforward: Bitcoin's market cap now exceeds $1 trillion even at $62k The capital required to push it down 85%+ simply doesn't exist the way it did when the entire market was worth $200 million Each cycle, institutional participation absorbs more of the selling and dampens the extremes If the 365-day timing from the $126k holds, that's Q4 2026 We're on day ~252 of the bear phase right now The clock is running out faster than most people realize Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated!

🚨 BTC PERFECTLY FOLLOWS MARKET CYCLE PATTERN The data is consistent across every cycle: > 2013 top $1.1k → 2015 bottom: -87% / 365 days > 2017 top $19k → 2018 bottom: -85% / 365 days > 2021 top $69k → 2022 bottom: -79% / 365 days > 2025 top $126k → 2026 bottom: IN PROGRESS However, most people doesn't understand that bear markets are getting shallower while staying the same length The reason is straightforward: Bitcoin's market cap now exceeds $1 trillion even at $62k The capital required to push it down 85%+ simply doesn't exist the way it did when the entire market was worth $200 million Each cycle, institutional participation absorbs more of the selling and dampens the extremes If the 365-day timing from the $126k holds, that's Q4 2026 We're on day ~252 of the bear phase right now The clock is running out faster than most people realize Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated!

Pepesso

32,326 次观看 • 1 个月前

Today we officially say goodbye to our Brawl Stars boys. From the very first day, you stood out not only for your talent and personality, but above all for the fire, competitiveness, and passion you brought to the game every single day. We could not have asked for more from such a young trio, who exceeded every expectation and carried us all the way to the top of the world stage. Thank you from the bottom of our hearts, boys. Best of luck in your new journeys, we’ll see you back on the server next year 💙🫡 #BleedBlue #NOVOEsports

Today we officially say goodbye to our Brawl Stars boys. From the very first day, you stood out not only for your talent and personality, but above all for the fire, competitiveness, and passion you brought to the game every single day. We could not have asked for more from such a young trio, who exceeded every expectation and carried us all the way to the top of the world stage. Thank you from the bottom of our hearts, boys. Best of luck in your new journeys, we’ll see you back on the server next year 💙🫡 #BleedBlue #NOVOEsports

NOVO Esports

59,433 次观看 • 7 个月前

Introducing Wintermute Construct Our first accelerator program for crypto builders ready to commit, build, and launch What you’ll be part of: ‣ 10-week remote program running from July to September ‣ Minimum $200,000 investment ‣ Hands-on mentorship from real builders ‣ GTM support and fundraising prep ‣ Access to top crypto investors ‣ Over $100,000 in perks and credits ‣ Demo Day in London We’ve helped incubate Bebop GMCI Wildcat Labs Backed over 100 early-stage projects via Wintermute Ventures And built alongside some of the top teams in DeFi Now we’re backing the next generation of builders If you’re ready to build, we’re ready to back you Applications are now open → Apply now:

Introducing Wintermute Construct Our first accelerator program for crypto builders ready to commit, build, and launch What you’ll be part of: ‣ 10-week remote program running from July to September ‣ Minimum $200,000 investment ‣ Hands-on mentorship from real builders ‣ GTM support and fundraising prep ‣ Access to top crypto investors ‣ Over $100,000 in perks and credits ‣ Demo Day in London We’ve helped incubate Bebop GMCI Wildcat Labs Backed over 100 early-stage projects via Wintermute Ventures And built alongside some of the top teams in DeFi Now we’re backing the next generation of builders If you’re ready to build, we’re ready to back you Applications are now open → Apply now:

Wintermute

181,112 次观看 • 1 年前

I'm working with Clavicular's team. Pushing his new app. I can't share too many details, but: - Top 10 on the app store in the first day. - Some pretty wild revenue stats. So, no time for my own app right now! Excited to play even just a small part in this.

I'm working with Clavicular's team. Pushing his new app. I can't share too many details, but: - Top 10 on the app store in the first day. - Some pretty wild revenue stats. So, no time for my own app right now! Excited to play even just a small part in this.

Frederick James

13,516 次观看 • 9 天前