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recession indicator

46,216 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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One of the Investing mantras which I have been following over the years: Top line is vanity Bottom line is sanity but Cash in bank is reality Cash flow is a crucial factor when it comes to avoiding big mistakes and identifying compounders. By focusing on cash flows, one can gain valuable insights into the financial health and sustainability of a business. However as investors, dilemma always has been whether Operating cash flows (OCF) more relevant than Free Cash flow (FCF) in India or vice versa? Most investors in India hunt for companies growing at 15%+. But for businesses to consistently grow at 15%+, companies need growing OCF pools to reinvest in growth (capacities, brands, etc.). In a way, quality of OCF, decides the quantum of growth. In India, across time-periods, pools of OCF compounders (CAGR>20%) have shown a 10% higher strike rate in unearthing multi-baggers (5Y=3x; 10Y=10x), versus pools of FCF compounders. OCF-funded earnings growth, combined with valuation re-ratings, have led to multibagger returns over years, even when FCF has been negligible. (Source:Nuvama) More so, the average returns of multibaggers emerging from the OCF pools are also meaningfully higher than multibaggers from the FCF pool. As a practitioner I can vouch that during times of downturn and earning recession, strong cash flows serves as a reliable indicator of a company's ability to sustain and expand its operations, paving the way for substantial value appreciation over the long term.

Pankaj Tibrewal

28,465 次观看 • 1 年前

Is the boom going to bust? “The 1988 Australian property boom saw national home values surge by a record 31.2%, making it one of the largest single-year value spikes in the country's recorded real estate history. This massive growth occurred despite aggressive economic conditions, with home loan interest rates hovering near 15% and rising. Why the 1988 Boom Happened: •The 1987 Stock Market Crash: Global stock market instability caused a massive shift in capital, with investors pulling money out of the share market and pouring it directly into Australian real estate. •Negative Gearing: After a brief period where the tax break was abolished, negative gearing was reinstated in 1987, heavily incentivizing property investment. •Credit Deregulation: Following the floating of the Australian dollar, the deregulation of the banking sector and the licensing of foreign banks made loans much more accessible, driving up auction bids.” •••••••••• This is an insightful clip from the ABC 1988 when house prices shot up dramatically for the reasons listed above. I’m old enough to remember that “property boom” as it was my first year out of school and my brother had bought a unit in Auchenflower for $62,500 which seemed like a lot of money at the time. The boom forced the RBA into raising the cash rate to 17.5% by 1990 causing a severe recession unemployment to hit 10%. Immigration was also curtailed as a result of the housing boom. Immigration dropped from around 150,000 to less than 100,000 by the mid 90’s. The decrease was partly due to the Fitzgerald Immigration Report released in 1988 that called for stricter immigration controls. He was not called a racist. Housing debt and immigration is much higher today whilst the cash rate is much lower at 4.35%. House prices eased by 8% in the early 1990’s. Time will only tell what happens to housing prices going forward but it’s a very important indicator that is going to determine that future prosperity of our nation.

Gerard Rennick

14,610 次观看 • 2 个月前

Warren Buffett spent three years quietly selling everything while the rest of Wall Street was throwing a party. Between 2022 and 2024, Berkshire Hathaway sold a net $172 billion in stocks while buying almost nothing in return. In 2024 alone, he offloaded $134 billion in equities, a pace of selling so fast that most investors did not even notice it was happening. He sat through a bull market, watched stocks climb to the moon, and kept stacking cash anyway. The result is $373.3 billion sitting in Treasury bills right now, the largest corporate cash hoard in the history of American business. That number is not a mistake or fear, it is a loaded weapon waiting for the right moment to fire. His own market valuation signal, the Buffett Indicator, is now sitting at 220 percent, a level that has only been higher during the dot-com bubble of 1999. The Shiller CAPE ratio, another valuation measure, recently hit 39.42, which is the second-highest reading ever recorded outside of that same dot-com era. Buffett has previously said that when the indicator crosses 200 percent, it is like playing with fire. Now he has confirmed it publicly in an interview, when a big market decline comes, Berkshire will deploy, and they will deploy because businesses become attractive, not because someone told him the bottom is in. He is not guessing at timing, he is simply waiting until the math works in his favor again. When Berkshire had just $31 billion in cash going into 2008, Buffett turned that crisis into over $16 billion in pure profit through deals with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and General Electric. Today he has $373 billion, twelve times that firepower sitting ready while recession warnings are louder than they have been in years. Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics have both warned that the S&P 500 could face a double-digit decline if earnings disappoint or economic conditions weaken further. Berkshire has already outperformed the market by 23 percentage points in 2026 alone, simply by doing nothing while everyone else lost money. Meanwhile, that $373 billion in Treasury bills is generating roughly $13 billion in risk-free interest every single year while Buffett waits. He is being paid billions to be patient, and the patience itself is the strategy. Apple is still his largest single equity holding roughly 19 percent of the entire portfolio and he called it publicly better than any business Berkshire owns outright. He admitted he sold Apple too soon but made over $100 billion pre-tax on the trade anyway, which is the kind of mistake most people spend a lifetime dreaming about. The new CEO Greg Abel has described the cash pile as a "strategic asset" that allows Berkshire to act decisively when others are fearful which is the clearest signal yet that a major move is coming. When Berkshire finally pulls the trigger, it will not be a cautious nibble, it will be one of the largest single capital deployments in the history of financial markets. The only thing left to figure out is what price breaks him off the sideline. Based on every signal he has sent over the last three years, that price is getting closer.

StockMarket.News

687,741 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨 WARNING: THE GREAT RECESSION IS ABOUT TO REPEAT!! While the entire market is blindly chasing AI narratives. The smartest investors from 2008 are already positioning for a MASSIVE RESET. Michael Burry predicted the housing crash before anyone else. And now he is betting AGAINST the AI boom. Scion's Q3 2025 13F filing disclosed over $1 BILLION IN SHORTS. Scion opened huge bearish positions against Nvidia and Palantir worth nearly $1.1 BILLION. Burry believes the market is massively mispricing AI companies. His main argument is simple: "Big tech firms are extending the “lifespan” of AI hardware in accounting reports to inflate profits." AI chips become outdated because competition moves too quickly. Burry says this accounting trick artificially added around $176 BILLION in fake profits across the market. Things got so extreme that, in late 2025, he even restricted outside investors from entering his fund. And then there’s Buffett: He isn’t screaming on TV or making dramatic moves. But his actions say enough. The Buffett Indicator has climbed above 227%. One of the highest levels ever recorded. Buffett previously warned that levels above 200% are “playing with fire.” Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a RECORD $373 BILLION cash pile. That’s not accidental. Buffett appears to be waiting for the AI bubble to crack so he can buy great companies at distressed prices—exactly like after 2008. Here’s why some believe the AI collapse could actually happen: > ROI PROBLEM Over $600 BILLION has already been poured into AI infrastructure. But many AI businesses still struggle to generate profits that even cover operating costs. If real monetization doesn’t arrive soon, investor confidence could collapse fast. > CHATGPT GROWTH SLOWING Reports claim OpenAI failed to hit internal growth expectations. Losses are reportedly still massive, while user growth is no longer exploding like before. When the market leader starts slowing down, panic spreads quickly. > DOTCOM BUBBLE PARALLELS This is starting to resemble 1999 all over again. Back then, investors massively overbuilt internet infrastructure. Today, the same thing may be happening with AI chips and data centers. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here. When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money. Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon. Many will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

273,788 次观看 • 2 个月前

David Hunter returns to lay out his updated thesis for the S&P 500, broader markets, and commodities. Hunter believes a final melt-up in the S&P 500 and precious metals is near, to be followed by a deflationary bust bigger than 2008, and then a policy response so significant it could push the Fed’s balance sheet toward $30 trillion… 📢 This video is sponsored by iTrustCapital. Pinnacle Digest is compensated by iTrustCapital for this sponsorship and may also receive a commission if viewers sign up and fund a new account using our link below. 👉 Learn more about opening an IRA account with iTrustCapital here: In our latest podcast, David Hunter explains why he believes we are near the start of the final parabolic phase of the 43-year secular bull market, why sentiment is the real tell at major turning points, and why the next decade could feature both a deflationary shock and an inflationary aftermath. Hunter believes the post bust cycle could be led by real assets, industrials, and commodities, driven by reshoring, infrastructure expansion, data center power demand, and long supply lead times. 🎙️ In this episode • Why David Hunter moved his S&P target to ~9,500 • Gold and silver targets • How sentiment signals major inflection points • Kevin Warsh and why the Fed could be slower to react next time • The coming bust: why it may be deeper than a recession • Why the Fed may be forced into massive QE again • Dollar and treasuries as the flight to safety trade during the bust • Why commodities and industrials may lead the next cycle • Nasdaq, semis, and the rotation into small caps 📌 This video is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. 🖥️ Visit Pinnacle Digest online: ⚠️ Disclaimer and Forward Looking Statements Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc. is the owner and operator of Pinnacle Digest. References in this content to “Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc.,” “Pinnacle Digest,” “we,” “us,” or “our” refer collectively to Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc. and its Pinnacle Digest brand, platforms, and distribution channels. Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc. and Alexander Smith have financial interests in precious metals and precious-metal equities (including gold and silver), base-metal equities (including copper), and in broad equity markets, including S&P 500-linked investments. These positions may be bought or sold at any time without notice and may influence opinions expressed. This video is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing herein is a recommendation, endorsement, or solicitation to buy or sell any security or commodity. Investing involves risk, including loss of capital. Alexander Smith is not a licensed financial advisor. David Hunter is appearing as a guest and is not providing personalized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Conduct independent due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. Forward-Looking Statements: This podcast contains forward-looking statements about gold, silver, mining equities, the S&P 500, inflation, and broader macro and market trends. These statements include forecasts, targets, and scenario projections, are speculative, based on assumptions, and subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc., the host, and the guest disclaim liability for any loss arising from use of this video. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Intro 1:27 - Disclaimer and Forward-Looking Statements - PLEASE READ 1:39 - David Hunter's Melt-Up Update and S&P Target 4:54 - Gold and Silver Targets Updated 7:49 - David's Sentiment and Contrarian Framework 10:22 - Concern About Gold Being a Crowded Trade? 12:22 - Global Bust TIMELINE 19:03 - US Bonds, 10-Year Yield and Interest Rates 21:03 - Our Sponsor, iTrustCapital 22:20 - QE and the Fed's $30T Balance Sheet Scenario 24:43 - US Dollar Targets and Treasuries to Hold Up During Bust 30:39 - Deflation First, Then Inflation to Hit 20-25% as Ponzi Scheme Ends 39:34 - Interest Rates Heading Back to Zero and Negative During Bust 41:00 - Gold and Silver to Fall During Bust 42:50 - Commodity Super Cycle Leadership 49:05 - A Greater Depression and the Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis 58:03 - Final Indicator to Watch #davidhunter #stockmarkets #SP500 #NASDAQ #goldprice #silversqueeze #Commodities #federalreserve #macroinvesting #investing #MarketStructure

Pinnacle Digest

78,382 次观看 • 5 个月前