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recession indicator

Morgpie Clips

16,382 subscribers

49,078 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

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2 Kommentare

Profilbild von Carmen_nem ➡️Blizzcon2026🐇

Carmen_nem ➡️Blizzcon2026🐇vor 6 Monaten

@mogrpee Actually real tho

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ELON PRIMEvor 8 Monaten

Gorgeous video love 😘😘

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Bored. So posting stupid combos like the old days. You've heard of recession indicators but I think these qualify as a format fatigue indicator

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Major recession indicator: the number of people who are willing to stand in line for 2+ hours for a free burger on National Burger Day. Value is ~ $15. Lots of employers paying their employees serious dollars to stand in line for a free burger.

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Homeowner insolvency is becoming 🇨🇦 most reliable recession indicator and almost no one is watching it. By the time homeowners file, they’ve already burned through refis, HELOCs, balance transfers, and family help. That’s late-stage financial stress, not sentiment. This doesn’t mean an immediate housing crash. It means consumer spending collapses first — quietly. When homeowners stop spending, the recession has already started. 🎬 Clip: Scott Terrio (Licensed Insolvency Trustee) with Ron Butler , host of Angry Mortgage. Full Youtube conversation linked below ⬇️

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One of the Investing mantras which I have been following over the years: Top line is vanity Bottom line is sanity but Cash in bank is reality Cash flow is a crucial factor when it comes to avoiding big mistakes and identifying compounders. By focusing on cash flows, one can gain valuable insights into the financial health and sustainability of a business. However as investors, dilemma always has been whether Operating cash flows (OCF) more relevant than Free Cash flow (FCF) in India or vice versa? Most investors in India hunt for companies growing at 15%+. But for businesses to consistently grow at 15%+, companies need growing OCF pools to reinvest in growth (capacities, brands, etc.). In a way, quality of OCF, decides the quantum of growth. In India, across time-periods, pools of OCF compounders (CAGR>20%) have shown a 10% higher strike rate in unearthing multi-baggers (5Y=3x; 10Y=10x), versus pools of FCF compounders. OCF-funded earnings growth, combined with valuation re-ratings, have led to multibagger returns over years, even when FCF has been negligible. (Source:Nuvama) More so, the average returns of multibaggers emerging from the OCF pools are also meaningfully higher than multibaggers from the FCF pool. As a practitioner I can vouch that during times of downturn and earning recession, strong cash flows serves as a reliable indicator of a company's ability to sustain and expand its operations, paving the way for substantial value appreciation over the long term.

One of the Investing mantras which I have been following over the years: Top line is vanity Bottom line is sanity but Cash in bank is reality Cash flow is a crucial factor when it comes to avoiding big mistakes and identifying compounders. By focusing on cash flows, one can gain valuable insights into the financial health and sustainability of a business. However as investors, dilemma always has been whether Operating cash flows (OCF) more relevant than Free Cash flow (FCF) in India or vice versa? Most investors in India hunt for companies growing at 15%+. But for businesses to consistently grow at 15%+, companies need growing OCF pools to reinvest in growth (capacities, brands, etc.). In a way, quality of OCF, decides the quantum of growth. In India, across time-periods, pools of OCF compounders (CAGR>20%) have shown a 10% higher strike rate in unearthing multi-baggers (5Y=3x; 10Y=10x), versus pools of FCF compounders. OCF-funded earnings growth, combined with valuation re-ratings, have led to multibagger returns over years, even when FCF has been negligible. (Source:Nuvama) More so, the average returns of multibaggers emerging from the OCF pools are also meaningfully higher than multibaggers from the FCF pool. As a practitioner I can vouch that during times of downturn and earning recession, strong cash flows serves as a reliable indicator of a company's ability to sustain and expand its operations, paving the way for substantial value appreciation over the long term.

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Is the boom going to bust? “The 1988 Australian property boom saw national home values surge by a record 31.2%, making it one of the largest single-year value spikes in the country's recorded real estate history. This massive growth occurred despite aggressive economic conditions, with home loan interest rates hovering near 15% and rising. Why the 1988 Boom Happened: •The 1987 Stock Market Crash: Global stock market instability caused a massive shift in capital, with investors pulling money out of the share market and pouring it directly into Australian real estate. •Negative Gearing: After a brief period where the tax break was abolished, negative gearing was reinstated in 1987, heavily incentivizing property investment. •Credit Deregulation: Following the floating of the Australian dollar, the deregulation of the banking sector and the licensing of foreign banks made loans much more accessible, driving up auction bids.” •••••••••• This is an insightful clip from the ABC 1988 when house prices shot up dramatically for the reasons listed above. I’m old enough to remember that “property boom” as it was my first year out of school and my brother had bought a unit in Auchenflower for $62,500 which seemed like a lot of money at the time. The boom forced the RBA into raising the cash rate to 17.5% by 1990 causing a severe recession unemployment to hit 10%. Immigration was also curtailed as a result of the housing boom. Immigration dropped from around 150,000 to less than 100,000 by the mid 90’s. The decrease was partly due to the Fitzgerald Immigration Report released in 1988 that called for stricter immigration controls. He was not called a racist. Housing debt and immigration is much higher today whilst the cash rate is much lower at 4.35%. House prices eased by 8% in the early 1990’s. Time will only tell what happens to housing prices going forward but it’s a very important indicator that is going to determine that future prosperity of our nation.

Is the boom going to bust? “The 1988 Australian property boom saw national home values surge by a record 31.2%, making it one of the largest single-year value spikes in the country's recorded real estate history. This massive growth occurred despite aggressive economic conditions, with home loan interest rates hovering near 15% and rising. Why the 1988 Boom Happened: •The 1987 Stock Market Crash: Global stock market instability caused a massive shift in capital, with investors pulling money out of the share market and pouring it directly into Australian real estate. •Negative Gearing: After a brief period where the tax break was abolished, negative gearing was reinstated in 1987, heavily incentivizing property investment. •Credit Deregulation: Following the floating of the Australian dollar, the deregulation of the banking sector and the licensing of foreign banks made loans much more accessible, driving up auction bids.” •••••••••• This is an insightful clip from the ABC 1988 when house prices shot up dramatically for the reasons listed above. I’m old enough to remember that “property boom” as it was my first year out of school and my brother had bought a unit in Auchenflower for $62,500 which seemed like a lot of money at the time. The boom forced the RBA into raising the cash rate to 17.5% by 1990 causing a severe recession unemployment to hit 10%. Immigration was also curtailed as a result of the housing boom. Immigration dropped from around 150,000 to less than 100,000 by the mid 90’s. The decrease was partly due to the Fitzgerald Immigration Report released in 1988 that called for stricter immigration controls. He was not called a racist. Housing debt and immigration is much higher today whilst the cash rate is much lower at 4.35%. House prices eased by 8% in the early 1990’s. Time will only tell what happens to housing prices going forward but it’s a very important indicator that is going to determine that future prosperity of our nation.

Gerard Rennick

14,610 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten