Red Tape - Black Monday? 4-5-2025

You're one of the few people not rushing to call a recession. I appreciate that because, as you said, absolutely nothing has had a chance to filter down.

The world never ends in one day. Biggest lesson I learned over the past 50 years

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Why buy Swiss bonds when the counterparty risk is UBS?

If you listened pres 47 you could see this coming! There for sold 70% of stocks in December and January and moved funds into Treasury bills at about 4.5%. The sold short the rest of our stocks to hedge the 30%. Should I cover the shorts Monday ,Tuesday or let them ride?

Interesting breakdown thanks. Any thoughts on the Monday price action?

Hard to believe the opening will be up as banks will demand more capital early Monday. After that we will see

Ya gotta dig deep into the naked shorting of GameStop to figure out why these hedgefunds are surviving off leverage.

Love your stuff I reposted a chart from Bryn capital misallocation he is top notch. Looking back it would suprise you relation of DXY to equities to bonds. It’s my favorite chart of all time

1. In my opinion the last recession matters the most when looking for analogs (this is because of debt/leverage and technology) 2. 3m10y univerted in Oct 2019, recession started in Feb 2020 (4 months). univerted Dec 2024, recession starts ...???

Every time this man pops up on my timeline it’s a solid bottom